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Day 5
Nov 27, 2009 15:02:33 GMT -5
Post by CatInASuit on Nov 27, 2009 15:02:33 GMT -5
The game was on, but it still did not appear that the trouble was over. The celebrations were still muted but this time round it seemed that a sense of purpose was developing. And yet given the previous Nights a sense of unease still prevailed, would there be further tragedy?
When they awoke in the morning, there had been no explosions, no screams, it had been quiet and all had slept through.
As they gathered in the mess hall for breakfast, they realised one of them was missing. Searching around, showed that they had not left their room although the door was icy to the touch.
Through a viewscreen, a figure could be seen standing in the middle of the room, reaching for something, mists curled around the floor and the scene looked peaceful.
The door was forced open and a chill bast of air escaped the room and a gust of hot air entered. Still the figure did not move. Walking up, one of them touched the statue. They screamed when their fingers were bitten by the cold and the statue toppled over from the push and shattered into a thousand tiny frozen pieces.
Searching the room showed a a jet of frozen oxygen had been directed into the room.
The quietest Night yet, but still someone had died.
Nanook had been frozen and smashed.
The news from the Central Computer brought more news of those who had met their demise.
Kat had been registered as a Passenger and was a noted Particle Physicist enjoying the cruise. MHaye had been registered as a Passenger and was a Celebrity Snoop looking for stories. nphase had been registered as a Passenger and was The Playboy along for the fun and frolics.
What did this all mean?
Day 5 begins now. It will end on Wednesday 2nd December at 20:00 GMT
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Day 5
Nov 27, 2009 18:22:12 GMT -5
Post by special on Nov 27, 2009 18:22:12 GMT -5
Interesting last post by sinjin in Night 4.
Oh, and storyteller is a passenger.
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Day 5
Nov 27, 2009 18:32:55 GMT -5
Post by special on Nov 27, 2009 18:32:55 GMT -5
Alive: 2. Special Ed claimed detevtive 5. shaggy - claimed Alien 8. redskeezix claimed Vanilla 10. storyteller claimed Vanilla 14. Pleonast claimed weak tracker 17. sinjin claimed Vanilla 20. sachertorte Mason[/color]
Dead: 11. Chucara - White Hat - Vote Switcher 4. Guy Incognito - Serving Droid 9. Sister Coyote - Xenobiologist 13. hockeyguy - Security Guard - Roleblocker 3. BillMc - Ambassador 12. pedescribe - Photographer 15. Natlaw - Journalist 16. dirx - Weapons Expert - ToughGuy 6. Kat! MAson?? 7. nphase A coroner who was a playboy? 18. MHaye Watcher?? 1. peekercpa - Seductress - Paranoid Doc 19. Nanook Mason
Did shaggy not kill to make us believe him more?
Is Kat really a mason? It makes sense with Nanook dead, unless Nanook was the SK target and I was protected somehow. I'm assuming for the time the claim is still valid.
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Day 5
Nov 27, 2009 20:41:34 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Nov 27, 2009 20:41:34 GMT -5
Wait, WHAT? All three Night Three deaths were Townies? Three anti-Town kills in one Night? How the hell?
OK, I'm so confused at this point as to possibly require a straitjacket. Early thoughts:
1. Pleonast is Scum, probably a Scum Tracker. I know sach doesn't like that I'm this confident about it, but why beat around the bush? Everything I said yesterday still applies, and then add in sinjin's post at the end of Night 4, and this is a slam dunk. With everything that's been revealed, does anyone still think that Pleo is actually a Town Weak Tracker?
2. The absence of a dead vanilla among the three dead from N3 means that there are only three vanilla claimants total: myself, redskeezix, and sinjin. This is mighty strange. I know that I am vanilla. But a total of only three vanilla seems like very strange construction. And let's face it, unless Ed is lying to us (and he might be, I guess, although a game where the Town faces up to three anti-Town killing powers with no Doctor and no Alignment Cop is pretty close to unwinnable, it seems, at least one of the vanillas is almost surely lying. Pleo can't be the last Scum - there's just no way there were only three at the outset. So either shaggy is the last Scum and either skeezix or sinjin is an Alien, or shaggy really is an/the Alien and skeezix or sinjin is Scum.
Actually, I guess it is technically possible that both skeezix and sinjin are lying. If we have a Mad Bomber Alien, some kind of Serial Killer, Pleonast the Scum Tracker, and one other Scum, well, that means Pleo, shaggy, sinjin, and skeezix are all non-Town elements, and since I am not confirmed and Ed is only mostly confirmed, that leaves us up a pretty big creek. This arrangement would mean that I was in fact the only vanilla, a setup that actually is a bit elegant and makes some sense, I suppose.
I have no idea how to proceed. I have to think about this, and hopefully figure it out. For now, though:
vote Pleonast
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Day 5
Nov 27, 2009 21:41:25 GMT -5
Post by special on Nov 27, 2009 21:41:25 GMT -5
Assumtions: - sachertorte, storyteller and I are Town
- We have 2 Scum
- We have 1 Alien
Special Ed storyteller sachertorteshaggy redskeezix Pleonast sinjin Possible arrangements: 1. Shaggy, redskeezix, Pleonast, sinjin2. Shaggy, redskeezix, Pleonast, sinjin3. Shaggy, redskeezix, Pleonast, sinjin4. Shaggy, redskeezix, Pleonast, sinjin5. Shaggy, redskeezix, Pleonast, sinjin6. Shaggy, redskeezix, Pleonast, sinjin7. Shaggy, redskeezix, Pleonast, sinjin8. Shaggy, redskeezix, Pleonast, sinjin9. Shaggy, redskeezix, Pleonast, sinjin10. Shaggy, redskeezix, Pleonast, sinjin11. Shaggy, redskeezix, Pleonast, sinjin12. Shaggy, redskeezix, Pleonast, sinjinI think we can rule out the shaggy as Town. I think we can also rule out the sinjin/Pleo scum buddies one 1. Shaggy, redskeezix, Pleonast, sinjin2. Shaggy, redskeezix, Pleonast, sinjin3. Shaggy, redskeezix, Pleonast, sinjin4. Shaggy, redskeezix, Pleonast, sinjin5. Shaggy, redskeezix, Pleonast, sinjin6. Shaggy, redskeezix, Pleonast, sinjin7. Shaggy, redskeezix, Pleonast, sinjin9. Shaggy, redskeezix, Pleonast, sinjinOK, that was worthless, eh? I'm not even sure my assumptions are correct. Why am I still alive? Did the Scum think a SK would kill me? Do we really have a SK? Maybe shaggy was honest. Did the Scum think they could cast some doubt on my claim? I suppose it's possible, but after I needlessly sacrificed Dirx and pushed a peeker lynch?
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Day 5
Nov 28, 2009 12:31:15 GMT -5
Post by shaggy on Nov 28, 2009 12:31:15 GMT -5
Well I agree seeing now that the 3 deaths were all town this is not good at all, combined with another claimed mason gone. It is verry good that we only had one death last night but it is interesting that we only did. I for one am right up there with Ed in that i thought for sure I may also be dead and am surprised not to be.
Especially when unless we had a fake claim to hide your a doc...it is odd, to say the least. One less can be explained by the loss of the scum toughguy but the scum/SK kill, is odd.
My only stab at the dark would be, that the SK, did not kill to keep as many unknowns alive as possible. Also it maybe that the SK, did not want to take out a town but was not sure which one really was scum, and therefore did not want to risk it. I really do not know, just geussing as to why.
As for my tagging last night...I kinda laughed when I read the thread so far, because I also picked story for my action. And why? cause he went back and was analyzing the sister c posts and then drawing a conclusion of what he felt for me. So well he may not trust me...after all I may not really want to trust a non-town role if I were in your shoes as well...So I do understand and I like the wanting to research and get the best idea from what we have to make a semi-conlcusion. As compared to just making assumptions and no matter what sticking with said conclusions. So I found this to be the most logical and rational way to decide and make or break a case. So I felt he was most likely a town player and therefore I wanted to tag him. And yes it went through.
At this point looking at the player list I would take a wild geuss we have only 2 scum left..since I would like to think there is no way they have 2 extra killers to explain yesterday having 3 dead. Since we know one was a toughguy, so that explains one less today but the other, I would surmise is not scum but a SK. Also unless they have to equal or out number all non-scum, then that would mean that they would have won save me keeping town alive. In which case why not have me dead along with nanook last night? So I would geuss that we have only 2 left and 1 SK.
Though ed you did forget one possibility: Shaggy, Sinjin Pleo, red
I think it is just as likely as any other scenario. having 2 3rd parties left as pointed out by story yesterday is entirely a possibility.
Since I agree that since the rules do not even list wincon's the idea that they would hand the dynamics of the scum having a designated killer, seems hard to believe. So I can see it as a small accidental scum slip of PIS.
Combined with the whole post yesterday "admit your the killer or die." by sinjin kinda can be seen as a possible over compensation for wanting me to take the fall for her killing. Really this is just speculation, as I dunno but it is a possiblity. Eigther way if this is correct I think or would like to think it is not win stealing in which case we do not need to worry as much as we do for the scum.
Anyways just my thoughts and my 2 cents on it.
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Day 5
Nov 28, 2009 12:52:57 GMT -5
Post by shaggy on Nov 28, 2009 12:52:57 GMT -5
NETA, I noticed after the post in night 0 a town wincon, but not a scum wincon. So while we were given the one, but not the other. So by not giving out the scum wincon, what are the odds that we or in this case pleo would be given that they have a designated killer?
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Day 5
Nov 28, 2009 13:02:11 GMT -5
Post by shaggy on Nov 28, 2009 13:02:11 GMT -5
NETA: Might I also point out, before I have sinjin come screaming at me, for my speculation....just cause SK'S typically align themselves with scum, does not mean they have to. If they are 3rd party that wins with one side. They could choose to win with town. So for all we know this one, could have tried to align with town as well. Not the typical norm, but it is possible. So the deaths such as nphase and Pede could have ben the SK, since they did play kinda scummie. Even Sister c since she was not sure herself whom she was after is it not possible the SK took her out, thinking she was talking about her/him instead of me? So possibly an alien did take her out, but unfortunetly the wrong alien she was hunting.
I really have no clue and am talking out my ass here, but it is a possibility. But would also explain no 2nd kill last night. As I said, not sure who the scum were and therefore did not want to risk killing.
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Day 5
Nov 28, 2009 19:26:21 GMT -5
Post by sinjin on Nov 28, 2009 19:26:21 GMT -5
Sorry shaggy, I am not an SK I'm just a vanilla passenger. I think today is the day to statis you and let Ed investigate another night. I'm not believing the wins with town or wins with scum depending on who he tags story. If he really did tag me, story and Ed he could potentially win tomorrow if he just needs to get >50%. I really hoped scum would take him out last night.
And I hate to bring this up, but let's not forget that there might be a godfather type out there. Heh, maybe scum let Ed live just so he could investigate said GF. Or maybe we really do have a hidden doc.
Vote: shaggy
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Day 5
Nov 28, 2009 21:17:55 GMT -5
Post by shaggy on Nov 28, 2009 21:17:55 GMT -5
Sorry shaggy, I am not an SK I'm just a vanilla passenger. I think today is the day to statis you and let Ed investigate another night. I'm not believing the wins with town or wins with scum depending on who he tags story. If he really did tag me, story and Ed he could potentially win tomorrow if he just needs to get >50%. I really hoped scum would take him out last night. And I hate to bring this up, but let's not forget that there might be a godfather type out there. Heh, maybe scum let Ed live just so he could investigate said GF. Or maybe we really do have a hidden doc. Vote: shaggy [/color] [/quote] I do have to just point out...lynching me or anyone else...except of coarse ed would still have him being able to investigate another tonight right? Could be a godfather, since I have seen a godfather played as a role that is a designated killer. Which does bring into the question pleo and whether he slipped accidentally or not, with the desiganted killer. Also you do realise if for argument sake I only need 50% minus me, then I now have that right? So even in your reasoning, kinda falls because then I have already won...which I have not. Seeing as out of 6 I have 3 tagged. After all you can not count me, since I well do not tag my self. But atlass I have not won, atleast not yet. But if you want to lynch me instead of going for one of the scum, then go ahead. But I do have to say sinjin If you are telling the truth and I am a 3rd party...which I am...then that would mean we basically know who the last 2 are, so would it not make the most sence to lynch one of them and then me tomorrow and then the last one the day after that? Atleast if you really do not want to believe I am telling the truth. Especially considering that acording to your own argument, I aparently already have won, but since the game is not over that should tell you I obviously am not win stealing or win with less then all tagged. Though for the last time...I have not won yet and will not until everyone is taged and one side wins, that I then win beside them. I am not going to repeat myself but refer to this post after this.
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Day 5
Nov 28, 2009 22:05:06 GMT -5
Post by sinjin on Nov 28, 2009 22:05:06 GMT -5
Also you do realise if for argument sake I only need 50% minus me, then I now have that right? So even in your reasoning, kinda falls because then I have already won...which I have not. Seeing as out of 6 I have 3 tagged. After all you can not count me, since I well do not tag my self. But atlass I have not won, atleast not yet. But if you want to lynch me instead of going for one of the scum, then go ahead. But I do have to say sinjin If you are telling the truth and I am a 3rd party...which I am...then that would mean we basically know who the last 2 are, so would it not make the most sence to lynch one of them and then me tomorrow and then the last one the day after that? Atleast if you really do not want to believe I am telling the truth. Especially considering that acording to your own argument, I aparently already have won, but since the game is not over that should tell you I obviously am not win stealing or win with less then all tagged. Though for the last time...I have not won yet and will not until everyone is taged and one side wins, that I then win beside them. I am not going to repeat myself but refer to this post after this. Ummm, did you miss the > sign in my post? I'm not even sure how your role works, but I don't think you are a benign alien. That would make SisterC's role superfluous unless there is another, killer, alien floating around. That may be, but it ain't me and it ain't story (never heard of a godfather 3rd party) so that would leave one of redskeezix or Pleo. I'm kind of leaning Pleo and Red as the last two scum but can't rule out story either. You are the safest bet for town today, IMHO. Unless someone wants to confess.
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Day 5
Nov 28, 2009 22:25:21 GMT -5
Post by shaggy on Nov 28, 2009 22:25:21 GMT -5
Which with 22 to start is it really so hard to believe that there could be? I mean i have seen many 20-25 player games with more then 2 3rd party players...Which that is the thing even I am assuming she was after me, but maybe I am wrong and she was infact after another killer alien....that is possible.
Though playing devils advocate here...if one of them were a killer then presumably the other and someone else would be scum, seeing as I highly doubt the scum has 2 tough guy killers. Which could be one of them, but hard to say. Such as: red, pleo and you, story or Ed Pleo, Red and you, Story or Ed
That is presuming one of them is a killer of coarse.
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Day 5
Nov 28, 2009 22:26:37 GMT -5
Post by shaggy on Nov 28, 2009 22:26:37 GMT -5
NETA might I say i am not actually thinking ed or story is scum, just saying hypothetical situations here.
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Day 5
Nov 29, 2009 16:15:27 GMT -5
Post by special on Nov 29, 2009 16:15:27 GMT -5
Vote: Pleonast
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Day 5
Nov 29, 2009 19:09:32 GMT -5
Post by sinjin on Nov 29, 2009 19:09:32 GMT -5
[/color][/quote] Ed, why are you not concerned about an alien stealing win? Why did we have an alien tracker, tracking an alien that could infect/control people.
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Day 5
Nov 29, 2009 19:16:01 GMT -5
Post by special on Nov 29, 2009 19:16:01 GMT -5
[/color][/quote] Ed, why are you not concerned about an alien stealing win? Why did we have an alien tracker, tracking an alien that could infect/control people.[/quote] I am. I'm just doubtful that he's going to achieve his win condition. While I agree that it's possible, I find it unlikely. I'd rather concentrate on getting Scum. If we're at 4-2-1 and we lynch the SK, we go into toMorrow at 3-2 with either me or sachertorte dead and not fully being able to trust story isn't an alpha. If we get a Scum (and I think Pleo is) we go into toMorrow at 3-1-1, and who knows, maybe Pleo is the alpha and we can then trust story. But, in any case, let's wait for the work week to start so we can hear from everyone.
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Day 5
Nov 29, 2009 21:00:41 GMT -5
Post by shaggy on Nov 29, 2009 21:00:41 GMT -5
Well for now I am going to go ahead and Vote Pleo
Obvious reasons I have stated above. I think he is scum, and will vote for him.
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Day 5
Nov 29, 2009 21:46:58 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Nov 29, 2009 21:46:58 GMT -5
To be an extra data point: the Moderator has also refused to reply to my question about whether the Scum kill individually or not. So either Pleonast lied about having asked and received an answer, or the Moderator is answering questions asked by some players and not by others.
Is anyone still unconvinced about this? I agree that there is still ample room for discussion on the strategic aspects of how to proceed, but is anyone uncertain about Pleo himself?
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Day 5
Nov 30, 2009 6:52:09 GMT -5
Post by Pleonast on Nov 30, 2009 6:52:09 GMT -5
My results from last Night: sinjin took no action. My choice was between him and story and since the optimal choice in a WIFOM situation is random, I flipped a coin. Our remaining 7 players are 02. Special Ed -- claimed investigator 05. shaggy -- claimed alien 08. redskeezix -- claimed vanilla 10. storyteller -- claimed vanilla 14. Pleonast -- claimed weak tracker 17. sinjin -- claimed vanilla 20. Boozahol Squid PI sachertorte -- mason As before, sach is the most likely town, and Ed next most likely. To simplify things, I'll assume they are as they say. I'll outline the best tactic for each case, before pointing a finger at who I think is who. A. 4 town, 2 scum, 1 3rd-party exclusive-win: if we lynch the 3PE, we have 3-2 ToMorrow, lynching scum gives us 2-1-1 (unless there's only 1 Night-kill again, 3-1-1), mislynching gives us 1-1-1 (or 2-1-1). Hoping for only one Night-kill is optimistic in this case, and since 2-1-1 with a 3PE leads to a tie-vote the next Day (and a town loss), lynching the 3PE is the best choice. However, a cross-kill would significantly help town, so if we think the 3PE will target scum instead of town, lynching scum is better. B. 4 town, 2 scum, 1 3rd-party inclusive-win: if we lynch the 3PI, we have 3-2 ToMorrow, lynching scum gives us 3-1-1 (unless there's a second Night-kill for whatever reason, 2-1-1), mislynching gives us 2-1-1 (or 1-1-1). One Night-kill is more likely, although given the number of extra kills, cannot be depended on. The best choice depends on which is more likely on the next Day: a mislynch ToMorrow (which means lynching scum ToDay is better) or a second kill ToNight (which means lynching the 3PI ToDay is better). Again a cross-kill would help town, so if that is likely, a scum lynch is better. C. 4 town, 1 scum, 1 3PE, 1 3PI: the 3PE must be lynched because lynching (and eliminating) the scum may hand victory to the 3PE. D. 3 town, 2 scum, 1 3PE, 1 3PI: if we lynch scum, we'll have 1-1-1-1 or 2-1-1-1 (depending on number of Night kills) the ToMorrow which will let the 3rd-parties determine who wins. If we lynch a 3rd-party, we'll have either 2-2-1 (or 1-2-1), which is puts us in a bad position as well. Since the best outcome among these is 2-2-1, lynching the 3PE is less bad choice. E. 3 town, 3 scum, 1 3PE: if we lynch the 3PE, we lose 2-3, so our only option is to lynch scum and hope for only 1 Night-kill (2-2-1). F. 3 town, 3 scum, 1 3PI: similar to Case F, lynching scum is the best choice. G. 2 town, 3 scum, 1 3PE, 1 3PI: assuming this isn't game over, we have to lynch scum and hope for the best. Personally, I think Case A is the most likely. We've had extra Night-kills, so there's a 3rd-party out there who can kill, who may have an exclusive or inclusive win condition. I think Cases B and F are unlikely--if shaggy is the only 3rd-party, he's lying about making kills and thus probably laying about having an inclusive win condition. If he is telling the truth, then Cases C, D, and G are most likely. I am skeptical that shaggy is telling the truth. It doesn't make sense given the information we have about the alien. Why would there be a townie alien-hunter if the alien does not pose a threat to us? We also have the extra kills to explain--the simplest answer is that the 3rd party we know about is the one doing it. Of the remaining cases (A, C, D, E, G), Cases E and G indicate lynching scum before the 3PE. However, with the number of kills in this game, it seems like starting with 5 scum would be unbalanced, so I am discounting the likelihood of these cases. For Cases A, C and D lynching the 3PE is the best option. Thusly, vote shaggyIf someone can convince me that lynching scum is better ToDay, I'd place my vote on one of the claimed vanillas, since they're the only place scum can be left hiding. In fact, if we're in Case E or G (the ones for which lynching scum is the best choice), we have the 3 scum. That would mean a no vanilla game, which is possible given what we know. Rereading Pleo's role claim I came across something that bothered me at the time but I promptly got distracted by something shiny: IYHO would a mod really answer that question? In my experience mods have only been willing to clarify how my own role works and refuse to give any additional information about other game mechanics particularly scum game mechanics. Not that it proves anything, but I asked the Cat about whether or not a specific scum did the killing and he refused to answer the question. You answer your own question--knowing whether or not a specific scum makes a kill is very pertinent to my role. What would be the point of a tracker (especially a weak one) if they didn't even know what they can or cannot find out about scum? OK, I'm so confused at this point as to possibly require a straitjacket. Early thoughts: 1. Pleonast is Scum, probably a Scum Tracker. <snip> 2. The absence of a dead vanilla among the three dead from N3 means that there are only three vanilla claimants total: myself, redskeezix, and sinjin. This is mighty strange. <snip> Or, now that Ed has found that Godfather story is a "passenger", story has redoubled his effort to lynch the power role who can actually catch him in the act. The only situation in which we can afford a mislynch is Case B, (which I think unlikely due to the large number of extra Night-kills). story's case against me consists only of his disagreement with my attempt to understand the situation. He does not offer any analysis of his own, but says he's "so confused". Classic scum tactic--jump on problems in a townie's analysis, while offering nothing in return. As you can see by my posting time today (I'm on pacific time), my schedule is very long again. I hope this post explains my thought process well enough for now. I'll try to catch up again on Tuesday.
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Day 5
Nov 30, 2009 7:49:00 GMT -5
Post by special on Nov 30, 2009 7:49:00 GMT -5
My results from last Night: sinjin took no action. My choice was between him and story and since the optimal choice in a WIFOM situation is random, I flipped a coin. Our remaining 7 players are 02. Special Ed -- claimed investigator 05. shaggy -- claimed alien 08. redskeezix -- claimed vanilla 10. storyteller -- claimed vanilla 14. Pleonast -- claimed weak tracker 17. sinjin -- claimed vanilla 20. Boozahol Squid PI sachertorte -- mason *snipped* blah blah blah. You lied regarding asking Mod about the Scum kills or he chose to answer only you. I am not surprised that our leading Scum candidate would come up with a "lynch the 3rd party instead of the Scum" approach.
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Day 5
Nov 30, 2009 10:20:35 GMT -5
Post by sachertorte on Nov 30, 2009 10:20:35 GMT -5
The fact that Special Ed is still alive reveals a few thoughts from me: An investigator at endgame is very powerful for Town and dangerous to Scum. Based on the claims there was no reason for scum to kill Nanook over Special Ed. Why would scum leave an investigator alive? The only reasons I can think of are that scum are not afraid of the investigator, that is, the remaining scum is investigation immune. The problem with this theory is that only accounts for 3 scum. In a game of this size I would have expected 4. However, I view Ed's results as 'inconclusive.' I am under the impression that no matter who Ed investigates, he will find a 'passenger.' I also have problems with this scum tactic because even if scum are all godfather-ed up, killing Ed is the correct move as it reveals less to the Town about motives. I suppose there is an argument about making Ed less trustworthy and getting him lynched, but seriously, that isn't going to happen and scum should know that.
What does this mean? Storyteller is the Godfather!!!! Uh, No. It means precisely nothing. If Ed is going to get 'passenger' from anyone, then that he investigated storyteller only tells us that he chose to investigate storyteller instead of someone else (a peculiar choice in my opinion, but that's that).
Oh. I have a few paranoia thoughts: When did Ed claim, precisely? Who was dead at that point in time and what is the likelihood of one of the dead passengers being a dead investigator? I think Ed claimed on Day Three, which means the dead were Night One dead and Night Two dead: If I've pieced the data together correctly, Sister Coyote claimed anti-alien something so is not an alignment cop. BillMc claimed vigilante? so is not an alignment cop. pedescribe is listed as a Photographer: did he ever claim a role? Could Pedescribe have been an alignment cop? Natlaw Journalist: I recall some mumblings about a Coroner, was that Natlaw? If so, then he is not an alignment cop. Anyway, that's my paranoia thought of the day. It seems unlikely to be the case, but I thought I'd be paranoid for a bit.
What was I rambling on about?
shaggy must die. I consider all scum and all third party exclusives as part of the Town's lynch burden and I expect the game to be balanced to that extent. I believe shaggy has an exclusive win condition as a product of Sister's Coyote's anti-alien powers. Shaggy must die. I realize that the ideal would be for scum to kill shaggy, but they aren't going to do that. This is a game of chicken that scum have no reason to bother with. They have the luxury of knowing when killing shaggy will simultaneously remove shaggy AND fulfill their own win condition. In essence, waiting for scum to kill shaggy, is waiting for scum to win.
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Day 5
Nov 30, 2009 10:37:24 GMT -5
Post by special on Nov 30, 2009 10:37:24 GMT -5
Sister Coyote claimed anti-alien something so is not an alignment cop. BillMc claimed vigilante? so is not an alignment cop. pedescribe is listed as a Photographer: did he ever claim a role? Could Pedescribe have been an alignment cop? Natlaw Journalist: I recall some mumblings about a Coroner, was that Natlaw? If so, then he is not an alignment cop. Anyway, that's my paranoia thought of the day. It seems unlikely to be the case, but I thought I'd be paranoid for a bit. pedescribe claimed tracker in day 2 Natlaw's claim
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Day 5
Nov 30, 2009 14:29:22 GMT -5
Post by Red Skeezix on Nov 30, 2009 14:29:22 GMT -5
Hope everyone had a good holiday. After the initial read, here are my thoughts. It seems like pleonast is most likely scum. The mod telling him how scum does or does not operate is unlikely if he is town. <snip> They have the luxury of knowing when killing shaggy will simultaneously remove shaggy AND fulfill their own win condition. In essence, waiting for scum to kill shaggy, is waiting for scum to win. I agree with you on the point that shaggy is the town's lynch responsibility. Story could be an alpha role, but now doesn't seem like the time to make a risky lynch. The question is do we lynch shaggy or pleonast today? I'm leaning towards pleonast. We've gotten two scum already, so that means there is 1-3 left from an original 3-5 and assuming Nanook was not scum. So out of 7 that means 5-1-1 or 4-2-1 or 3-3-1 . If the first or last is the case, then lynching shaggy seems like the wrong move (fail to remove a night kill or lose the game, respectively). In the second case, lynching shaggy would put us at 3-2 and lylo the rest of the game. If there is a SK in addition to shaggy, then we are looking at 4-1-2 or 3-2-2 (3 scum in this case means that Ed would have to not be town, which doesn't make a whole lot of sense given his play so far). In those cases lynching shaggy is bad for the first one, since we could eliminate a night kill by lynching pleo. For the second case, lynching shaggy would be no worse than lynching pleo (still 2 possible night kills leading to 1-1-2 or 2-1-1 or 3-0-1), but I would prefer in that case to lynch scum over claimed third party. In almost every case lynching pleo makes more sense, but those numbers do not take into account shaggy's possible taggings. Shaggy could be in a strong position to win, if he's the mad bomber. If shaggy has 3 tags going into today (not impossible), and his win condition is >50%. Then not lynching him today means he wins. There is no chance for him to be NK'd tonight if he wins before tonight. Tagging an unconfirmed player with a suspicious pleo going into today makes sense in this case. This could just me being paranoid however. Vote: Pleonast I'm done with meetings for the day, and I'm doing busy work the rest of the day, so if I have any brilliant ideas or paranoid suspicions, I'll be back to share.
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Day 5
Nov 30, 2009 15:03:11 GMT -5
Post by CatInASuit on Nov 30, 2009 15:03:11 GMT -5
Vote Count
Current Status: Pleonast Lynch.
pleonast: (4) shaggy: (2)
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Day 5
Nov 30, 2009 16:13:23 GMT -5
Post by special on Nov 30, 2009 16:13:23 GMT -5
Pleonast voters: storyteller, special ed, shaggy, red skeezix Shaggy voters: sinjin, pleonast (sachertorte seems to be leaning this way)
If we lynch shaggy, and we have only 1 NK toNight, and we have 2 Scum left, we'll be at 3-2 toMorrow. Also, if we assume a Scum Pleo lynching toMorrow, we'll go into day 7 with the following 3 players: storyteller, sinjin, and red skeezix.
OK, I'll switch
Vote: shaggy
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Day 5
Nov 30, 2009 16:17:37 GMT -5
Post by special on Nov 30, 2009 16:17:37 GMT -5
oh, and if it comes down to 3 handed, remember the players who went early for Pleo and the ones who went early for shaggy.
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Day 5
Nov 30, 2009 16:19:16 GMT -5
Post by special on Nov 30, 2009 16:19:16 GMT -5
oh, and if it comes down to 3 handed, remember the players who went early for Pleo and the ones who went early for shaggy. on second thought, I'm not sure how much it might tell you. but I'd at least venture a guess that red skeezix is not the final Scum. (story could be and jsut trying to build on his credibility). Sinjin obvioulsy could be.
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Day 5
Nov 30, 2009 19:10:38 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Nov 30, 2009 19:10:38 GMT -5
oh, and if it comes down to 3 handed, remember the players who went early for Pleo and the ones who went early for shaggy. on second thought, I'm not sure how much it might tell you. but I'd at least venture a guess that red skeezix is not the final Scum. (story could be and jsut trying to build on his credibility). Sinjin obvioulsy could be. Everyone is giving absolutely no credence to the supposition that there could be two third-parties remaining: shaggy and either sinjin/skeezix, with the other being Scum along with Pleo (obviously, the rest of you have to lump me into that group as well). If that's the case, then going down to three handed with me, sinjin, and skeezix is basically just me deciding whether I want the Scum to win or the third-party player to win. Yeah, I am, as they say, confused beyond belief. I'll work through the numbers again tomorrow and try to figure out whether I think shaggy or Pleo is the optimal play here.
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Day 5
Nov 30, 2009 19:40:55 GMT -5
Post by sinjin on Nov 30, 2009 19:40:55 GMT -5
Everyone is giving absolutely no credence to the supposition that there could be two third-parties remaining: shaggy and either sinjin/skeezix, with the other being Scum along with Pleo (obviously, the rest of you have to lump me into that group as well). If that's the case, then going down to three handed with me, sinjin, and skeezix is basically just me deciding whether I want the Scum to win or the third-party player to win. Yeah, I am, as they say, confused beyond belief. I'll work through the numbers again tomorrow and try to figure out whether I think shaggy or Pleo is the optimal play here. Well I have actually thought about there being a third-third party and when I do the calculations that person is YOU story. As I posted earlier I couldn't imagine a godfather type 3rd party. But if we recall that we had a town power role, who's town power was to identify a Protean Alien and those affected by it, maybe that's not so strange at all. Go back and look at my previous post with the definitions of Protean and that could fit a 3'rd party alien that comes up as town/human/passenger to everyone except a Xenobiologist. Why are you so adverse to lynching Shaggy? Afraid we're going to find out proof positive that there is another alien on the loose? If I were the "other" alien why would I want Shaggy dead? I want Shaggy dead because I think an alien that can control other players is a win stealer not a win sharer and I hope that Shaggy is that guy. I think he is close to controlling >50% of those alive. I don't believe we will lose to scum toDay but I fear we will lose to an alien. I hoping that alien is not you.
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Day 5
Dec 1, 2009 7:58:10 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Dec 1, 2009 7:58:10 GMT -5
Why are you so adverse to lynching Shaggy? Afraid we're going to find out proof positive that there is another alien on the loose? If I were the "other" alien why would I want Shaggy dead? Well, maybe you're not the other alien. Maybe you're the other Scum. I mean, honestly, the question above is nonsensical; I'm not averse to lynching shaggy; I am for lynching Pleonast. More to come. I am curious - why are you so sure that we won't lose to Scum toDay? Let's assume that the Scum win condition is reasonably standard: Scum win when there are an equal number of Scum and non-Scum remaining. This is by no means certain, but it's certainly possible. Let's assume that we started with 5 Scum. That means three remain now, with 7 players total alive, meaning we are at literal lynch-or-lose right now - lynch shaggy, who turns out to be a non-Scum player, and we lose and the Scum win. OK, let's assume we started with 4 Scum. That means two remain now. If we lynch shaggy and he is neither Scum nor killer, just the Mad-Bomber Alien he claims to be, we'll be down to 4 non-Scum vs. 2 Scum going into toNight. As far as we know, we have no protective roles. If there are two Night kills toNight and both hit Town, then we'd go into toMorrow at 2 Scum, 2 non-Scum: Game over according to the first assumption above. The only way lynching shaggy makes sense to me is if we believe that he is actually responsible for deaths, in which case killing him reduces the number of possible deaths toNight by one. Do we believe this? How does this square with Sister Coyote's role? And most importantly: why aren't you worried about losing to Scum, given the numbers above?
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