Natlaw
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Post by Natlaw on Oct 5, 2009 13:04:51 GMT -5
The biggest risks are: 1) You claiming to curse Cookies' target and she counter claims you when she lives. 2) MHaye keeps magically surviving kill attempts without moderator confirm.
All killing scum seem to be outed, except perhaps for a (raised) Wolf/Vampire julie. I don't think the killers will not kill (too many town left) and the targets will most likely be the confirmed Town (Cookies should kill PCM as the Vampires can't, the Vampire(s) pedescribe and Nanook.
Nanook might go for MHaye again although FCoD or Idle is also a reasonable option. Town can be reasonable sure there is at least one Cabal left (Nanook seemed blocked).
So if all kills go through, Tomorrow we have: Cabal: NAF and perhaps MHaye (not vigged) Vampire: Flying Cow and perhaps Idle (not vigged) Wolf: Cookies, julie? Town: hockeyguy and perhaps another in case of a double kill.
Either way, Town seems to be hopelessly screwed if the kills go that way. Day Six with five people and two killers means:. -if no killer gets lynched, the Undead could win that Night. Cookies can't kill FCoD, but might chose to not kill (or blocked of course) in which case we have a Cabal or Town / Vampire /Wolf last Day -if a killer gets lynched we get Cabal / Town / Killer last Day
So I'm thinking: N5: Block julie so no-one comes back (in case really Witchdoctor) D6: -If MHaye survived this far, bus him with 'if he's really town, at least he'll come back' -If MHaye dead, lynch Idle or FCoD (still too many kills, we got Cookies against Cabal) N6: Block no-one or hockeyguy (no block to further suggest MHaye was the last Cabal) D7: Lynch Wolf Cookies for the win
But that is based on all kills going through. I think it's a risk we have to take that Nanook kills a Vampire instead of MHaye and gets killed himself.
We could block kills but that will drag it out and if there is only one kill, Town needs to make sure Cabal is gone instead of trying to survive the massacre.
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Natlaw
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Post by Natlaw on Oct 5, 2009 13:12:30 GMT -5
On blocking Nanook to keep the killers out there: there are three Vampire and a Wolf now. Kat! will be lynched. That is still three scum kills and they will run out of confirmed Town targets Tonight. That means the Night after we'll be hunted. I think mentioning the possible three Vampires Today (could be as slip to help Nanook to decide to kill FCoD/Idle would be a good idea.
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Merestil Haye
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Post by Merestil Haye on Oct 5, 2009 13:18:48 GMT -5
Worth thinking about.
Remember, the killers don't care who they kill so long as it is not their faction.
I agree they'll want both Pede and PCM dead, but will the Wolf care to help the Vampires?
The killers also want Julie dead, since if they're telling the truth she can slow down the rate of attrition and give time for them to be lynched. Therefore they'll be targeting her Tonight too. I hope.
Nanook is the only person with the incentive to kill me Tonight. That's why I want him blocked - so Town still have to worry about me.
On the other hand, I think that NAF has slightly more long-term survivability so it might be better for me to slip. When we decide to. I was thinking Tomorrow sometime, by outing FCoD as a killer.
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Post by NAF1138 on Oct 5, 2009 14:23:49 GMT -5
Worth thinking about. Remember, the killers don't care who they kill so long as it is not their faction. I agree they'll want both Pede and PCM dead, but will the Wolf care to help the Vampires? The killers also want Julie dead, since if they're telling the truth she can slow down the rate of attrition and give time for them to be lynched. Therefore they'll be targeting her Tonight too. I hope. Nanook is the only person with the incentive to kill me Tonight. That's why I want him blocked - so Town still have to worry about me. On the other hand, I think that NAF has slightly more long-term survivability so it might be better for me to slip. When we decide to. I was thinking Tomorrow sometime, by outing FCoD as a killer. OK, I think the "slip" toMorrow is a good idea. I just want to play it easy toDay since we seem to clearly be at a tipping point. I want to make sure we don't tip things in a direction that prevents our own win, but I agree with you MHaye that the Nanook block will open things up for us more than the Julie block will. One of the killers is going to have to target her, one will have to target a confirmed townie, so hopefully that puts us both in the clear for the moment. If you can start pushing the idea that the killers are more important than the Cabal toDay we might be able to get that lodged into players minds for toMorrow before your slip. If we can do that sucessfully we might be able to get one more killer lynched before they go to take you out.
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Merestil Haye
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Post by Merestil Haye on Oct 5, 2009 15:15:37 GMT -5
Nanook already has; I may have said something along those lines when I voted Kat. The way I may "slip" is to push to vote FCoD tomorrow as a killer, because "ewe still need to reduce killers or they'll win before the Cabal do." Something like that. Probably over the weekend I'll let it stew in the back of my mind.
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Post by NAF1138 on Oct 6, 2009 15:35:27 GMT -5
Something isn't adding up with Idle and I can't figure out what it is. On the face of it, everyone involved in that discussion should be telling the truth. FCoD has no reason to think he killed Idle. DBI has every reason to think that FCoD killed Idle and if Idle was/is town he has no reason to lie about his alignment.
What am I missing here?
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Merestil Haye
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Post by Merestil Haye on Oct 6, 2009 16:04:01 GMT -5
It seems plain that someone is lying.
Firstly consider Dot. Is she lying? I can't see any reason or justification if she's Town, so if she's lying she's not Town. She's not one of us, so Wolf or Vampire. Detective is high-risk for Vampire, since all they know is their own kill, and they can't report on their own kill every time. (Well they could but people would get suspicious of such a perfect run of untestable results.) That leaves Wolf. It's possible that Dot is a Wolf, guessing Vampire on Idle because the Wolves didn't kill him. But then, what is FCoD?
There's FCoD, who (we know) targeted Idle N3, even if he does not. It appears likely to us that he's a killer. He's not lying, ironically; he's reporting what he believes, it just happens to be wrong.
Idle might be lying about being a Vicar. Witch investigations determine alignment, not role. Pede can't tell us anything about what role Idle had. We can rule out Witch and Scotsman for certain, but other than that it's pretty much guesswork. A reason for lying would be that the former rolea's powers were lost on cionversion, so if that did happen he couldn't back up a claim of (say) Seer with future results.
Or, Idle might be lying about who killed him in the first place. Don't ask me why. Maybe he's a Seer and he read FCoD as Vampire in the third Night, so he's accusing someone he knows as a killer?
Another possibility is that the Vampire special power that Idle keeps pushing as the reason Julie came back might defeat blocks and immunities (like the Cabal's spoecial kill did in C2). If that's the case, Idle could even have been a Vicar. Should the vampires have this power, my bet would be that Kat went to recruit Storyteller N1, when he had least time invested in trying to win for Town.
Or FCoD might be the Alpha Eolf, and managed to use the Wolf special power that Night (the N1 use was negated because Mr SE wound up targeting a Wolf.)
As you can see there are lots of possibilities, and we can't eliminate them all. My current belief is that Idle is lying about his former role.
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Post by NAF1138 on Oct 6, 2009 17:32:14 GMT -5
As you can see there are lots of possibilities, and we can't eliminate them all. My current belief is that Idle is lying about his former role. Right, but that's the thing. That doesn't make a lot of sense. There is no good reason for him to do that if he was town even if he is no longer town. I suppose the most likely possibility is that Dot was lying and is a wolf, but that still doesn't explain how Idle was killed unless FCoD is a wolf too which makes the wolves still fairly strong even though they have lost several members. Sorry for talking here instead of over there, but I actually want to puzzle this out, but I don't want to bring any of my thoughts on the situation to the main game.
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Merestil Haye
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Post by Merestil Haye on Oct 6, 2009 18:10:00 GMT -5
As you can see there are lots of possibilities, and we can't eliminate them all. My current belief is that Idle is lying about his former role. Right, but that's the thing. That doesn't make a lot of sense. There is no good reason for him to do that if he was town even if he is no longer town. That depends what he was before death, doesn't it? His conversion would almost certainly have lost his powers. maybe he didn't think he could suzstain the deception, and went for a safe claim. There's still the possibility that Idle really was a Vicar, but the Vampire secret power gets through Vicar immunity. More speculation later. Be interesting to see what happens Tomorrow. We should keep an eye out for new infor that proves (or better, disproves) some of these options.
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Natlaw
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Post by Natlaw on Oct 7, 2009 5:25:34 GMT -5
I disagree - there are other options for DBI not getting a read - she could have been blocked. This is a possibility (except we know it isn't true) but Nanook also could have been blocked (although color suggest more a protect according to him). The reason I think Idle is a recruited Vampire is that the mystery killer. FCoD works aa Vampire, but could also as Wolf with a secret extra kill (but less likely as they already have a standard kill). Anyway, as possible slip secret power: For each Cabalist that dies, the Cabal gain the power to redirect one kill targeting them at Night. You could use that with FCoD is Wolf together with Cookies where we redirected Wolf FCoD trying to kill MHaye on Idle N3 and Nanook on pedescribe/BillMc N4.
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Merestil Haye
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Post by Merestil Haye on Oct 7, 2009 13:58:51 GMT -5
It just occurred to me, maybe I should have claimed Cabal and urged the killers to go kill real Townies. It's to late to consider the ramifications now.
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