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Day Two
Dec 21, 2013 13:30:41 GMT -5
Post by texcat on Dec 21, 2013 13:30:41 GMT -5
Vote: storyteller
It's a shame he's given us so little to go on. He defended Swammer, or at least Swammer's no lynch vote. He briefly had his vote on SisC.
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Day Two
Dec 21, 2013 13:39:13 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by guiri on Dec 21, 2013 13:39:13 GMT -5
And he was voted by Captain Klutz, and SisterC seemed confused why he was unable to take an action last night. Information.
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Day Two
Dec 21, 2013 16:00:04 GMT -5
Post by Captain Klutz on Dec 21, 2013 16:00:04 GMT -5
I bid on the 3 items that I thought Scum would most want, my reasoning being that if Scum wanted them, they would have to pay. So I went for Kill, Block and Obfuscate
I did not win the Kill bid
I won Block and targeted myself in order to nullify it
I won Obfuscate and also targeted myself. I don't think that would have affected BillMc Watch ability, that he targeted at me.
There is no pro Town way to use the Obfuscate ability. However, knowing who was targeted by it does mean that other Night results are accurate
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Day Two
Dec 21, 2013 17:27:51 GMT -5
Post by BillMc on Dec 21, 2013 17:27:51 GMT -5
I bid on the 3 items that I thought Scum would most want, my reasoning being that if Scum wanted them, they would have to pay. So I went for Kill, Block and Obfuscate I did not win the Kill bid I won Block and targeted myself in order to nullify it I won Obfuscate and also targeted myself. I don't think that would have affected BillMc Watch ability, that he targeted at me. There is no pro Town way to use the Obfuscate ability. However, knowing who was targeted by it does mean that other Night results are accurate
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Day Two
Dec 21, 2013 18:47:42 GMT -5
Post by texcat on Dec 21, 2013 18:47:42 GMT -5
I bid on the 3 items that I thought Scum would most want, my reasoning being that if Scum wanted them, they would have to pay. So I went for Kill, Block and Obfuscate I did not win the Kill bid I won Block and targeted myself in order to nullify it I won Obfuscate and also targeted myself. I don't think that would have affected BillMc Watch ability, that he targeted at me. There is no pro Town way to use the Obfuscate ability. However, knowing who was targeted by it does mean that other Night results are accurate The only power unclaimed is the kill power. So it belongs to either Gnarly or (Colby or Patricia) or to a liar. I'm not sure what to make of someone who bids only on powers that scum would want. Wouldn't that be what scum does? And additionally targeting yourself with obfuscate power is exactly what scum would do.
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Day Two
Dec 21, 2013 19:19:56 GMT -5
Post by Captain Klutz on Dec 21, 2013 19:19:56 GMT -5
I'm not sure what to make of someone who bids only on powers that scum would want. Wouldn't that be what scum does? And additionally targeting yourself with obfuscate power is exactly what scum would do. I bid for the Scum powers so they would not get them cheaply. I decided not to bid for the other powers as I did not want to run up the price. As I said before, it matters little who wins them, as long as the results are reported. Obfuscate is only useful for Scum. Texcat, what would you suggest we do with that power? The only choices are 1. Leave it to Scum, or 2. Bid on it. And if you won it, who would you target? I think that Scum would either target one of the other Scum, and claim to have targeted themselves, or target themselves and claim they have done nothing. Note that claiming to have done nothing is safe, as they will be invisible to the watcher and tracker
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Day Two
Dec 21, 2013 19:53:53 GMT -5
Post by Captain Klutz on Dec 21, 2013 19:53:53 GMT -5
I am surprised at how high some bids went, and how low others went for.
I'm glad that Town did not get into a competitive mood and drive prices up too high. Except Investigate went for 35, which surprised me a fair bit. And Kill going for 40 was very surprising.
Curiously, Obfuscate went for only 3. This means that Scum did not bid any more than 3 for it. Perhaps they thought that no-one else would bid for it, or perhaps they decided to lie low and hope that Town would go all competitive and get themselves killed over it.
Kill has not been claimed. I suspect it was won by one of last Night's victims, and they paid the ultimate price. Curiously, neither death looks like a Scum kill. That makes me think that Scum targeted swammerdami (who self protected), Colby11 won kill (and died for it), targeting patricia. Yes, I think that Patricia was a reasonable vig target, being the lynch runner up.
However, I can't see Scum bidding 35 for Investigate. That is way too high, and keeping the power out of Town's hands is not worth such a risk. So I'm leaning strongly Town on both Mahaloth and BillMc
Unvote: Mahaloth
And of course
Vote: storyteller
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Day Two
Dec 21, 2013 20:49:02 GMT -5
Post by Captain Klutz on Dec 21, 2013 20:49:02 GMT -5
A reminder that, while Days are 3 days long, weekends are not included. So there is still a fair bit left in the Day. With Christmas, it may be that toDay gets extended anyway (or perhaps Night will be extended instead). I've PM'd Pleo to ask about this.
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Day Two
Dec 21, 2013 21:02:59 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Dec 21, 2013 21:02:59 GMT -5
Well, that was a depressingly short game for me. And I was really excited for this one, too.
vote BillMc for party poopering.
And apart from that, like Iago, from this time forth i never will speak word.
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Day Two
Dec 21, 2013 23:30:49 GMT -5
Post by swammerdami on Dec 21, 2013 23:30:49 GMT -5
I am surprised at how high some bids went, and how low others went for.... Curiously, Obfuscate went for only 3. This means that Scum did not bid any more than 3 for it. Perhaps they thought that no-one else would bid for it, or perhaps they decided to lie low and hope that Town would go all competitive and get themselves killed over it. Kill has not been claimed. I suspect it was won by one of last Night's victims, and they paid the ultimate price. Curiously, neither death looks like a Scum kill. That makes me think that Scum targeted swammerdami (who self protected), Colby11 won kill (and died for it), targeting patricia. Yes, I think that Patricia was a reasonable vig target, being the lynch runner up. However, I can't see Scum bidding 35 for Investigate. That is way too high, and keeping the power out of Town's hands is not worth such a risk. So I'm leaning strongly Town on both Mahaloth and BillMcI agree with much of this. Perhaps Scum "should" bid 20 (or even 30?) on Investigate, but if they were feeling sporty enough to bid 35 for it, surely they'd have also placed high bids for some of the other powers, especially Obfuscate. Since Colby11 didn't even vote Patricia Day 1 (and since it's wrong to bid high to Kill a likely Lynch target), I think Klutz's reconstruction of last Night's Kill is wrong. Perhaps Patricia, who voted me Day 1, tried to Vig-Kill me and ended up paying the price. That would make Colby11 (usually hard to Lynch as Town) as the Scum Kill. FOS at Silver Jan (whom Colby voted Day 1) mainly by elimination, since toDay's bid discussion provides Townish tells on several Players. It seems so clear that Scum should have bid more than 3 for Obfuscate, that I'm tempted to suspect Captain Klutz himself! However, if he were Scum I think he'd have ... well, obfuscated his bid reveals.
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Day Two
Dec 22, 2013 1:02:28 GMT -5
Post by Silver Jan on Dec 22, 2013 1:02:28 GMT -5
Unvote: SisterCoyote
Vote: storeyteller
Swammmer, do you really think that just because Colby was Town and he voted for me that that gives his vote extra weight? Can't see the logic there. I think it more likey that you are scum, especially now that we know storeyteller is scum and he defended your no lynch vote. You are also Fossing me by process of elimination, fair enough but what about gnarly, he hasn't even checked in yet?
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Day Two
Dec 22, 2013 3:19:19 GMT -5
Post by swammerdami on Dec 22, 2013 3:19:19 GMT -5
Swammmer, do you really think that just because Colby was Town and he voted for me that that gives his vote extra weight? Can't see the logic there. I think it more likey that you are scum, especially now that we know storeyteller is scum and he defended your no lynch vote. You are also Fossing me by process of elimination, fair enough but what about gnarly, he hasn't even checked in yet? I do have a Vote on gnarlycharlie right now, but only a FOS on you. With about six Players seeming pro-Town because of toDay's bid reveals, process of elimination may work well. (I realize some of the pro-Town reveals may be ploys.) Unimportant snuggling (defending my No Lynch vote) is what Scum-on-Scum does NOT do, so that tells me as Town, IMHO. Finally, would Scum vote Colby in part because he'd latched on to a Scum? I don't know, but when I've been Scum and failed to NK the Townie suspecting me, I've often regretted it.
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Day Two
Dec 22, 2013 7:23:15 GMT -5
Post by Silver Jan on Dec 22, 2013 7:23:15 GMT -5
Swammmer, do you really think that just because Colby was Town and he voted for me that that gives his vote extra weight? Can't see the logic there. I think it more likey that you are scum, especially now that we know storeyteller is scum and he defended your no lynch vote. You are also Fossing me by process of elimination, fair enough but what about gnarly, he hasn't even checked in yet? I do have a Vote on gnarlycharlie right now, but only a FOS on you. With about six Players seeming pro-Town because of toDay's bid reveals, process of elimination may work well. (I realize some of the pro-Town reveals may be ploys.) Unimportant snuggling (defending my No Lynch vote) is what Scum-on-Scum does NOT do, so that tells me as Town, IMHO. Finally, would Scum vote Colby in part because he'd latched on to a Scum? I don't know, but when I've been Scum and failed to NK the Townie suspecting me, I've often regretted it. I suppose you could be right, however I am definitely Town. I have a big FOS on SisC and until I found out that a definite scum had been caught I had a vote on her. It was her comment about having numerous things she could have done at Night that I found very suspicious. BTW Scum WILL DO anything as I have found out to my detriment.
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Day Two
Dec 22, 2013 16:34:11 GMT -5
Post by Silver Jan on Dec 22, 2013 16:34:11 GMT -5
I can't even argue with anyone after 2 bottles of wine, how disappointing. I must correct the scoekeeper person, I did not not win a bid, I did not bid at all, just so we are sorted, cheers till tomorrow (no, not the bunny)
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Day Two
Dec 23, 2013 10:38:45 GMT -5
Post by Pleonast on Dec 23, 2013 10:38:45 GMT -5
Day Two will end on Tuesday Dec 24 at 12n PT. No votes, etc, will count after that point. I'm not sure when I'll have time to post the end of the Day, so feel free to keep talking in the thread. Note that you can send in bids for Night Two anytime now.
Once I post end of Day and start Night Two, it will last 48 hours. All bids must be receive before the then-posted end of Night. I'll post results when I'm able.
Day Three will end on Thursday Jan 2 at 12n PT, regardless of when it starts.
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Day Two
Dec 23, 2013 13:35:08 GMT -5
Post by gnarlycharlie on Dec 23, 2013 13:35:08 GMT -5
hi all. been busy with exams last week and the weekend with mrs. charlie for our anniversary. will be around more now. So, so far we've got: Action | Player | Target | Bid | Paid | Investigate/td] [td style="padding: 3px;"]?? | ?? | ?? | 35 | Track | ?? | ?? | ?? | 8 | Watch | ?? | ?? | ?? | 8 | Obfuscate | ?? | ?? | ?? | 3 | Kill | ?? | ?? | ?? | 40 | Protect | ?? | ?? | ?? | 9 | Block | ?? | ?? | ?? | 20 | Charge | Guiri | Guiri | 5 | 3 |
Did nothing: 01. Meeko (no bids) 05. SilverJan (no wins) 08. Texcat (no wins) 12. Storyteller (not allowed) Not telling (yet): 06. Captain Klutz 03. swammerdami 14. BillMc Not sharing (yet): 02. Sister Coyote 04. gnarlycharlie 13. Mahaloth So apart from Storyteller, who wasn't allowed to bid, it looks as if a few of the 6 that aren't sharing or telling could be scum. Did I just state the cbvious once more? I think I am waiting for results today instead of going on my usual gut feel but I will vote right now. Vote: gnarlycharlieAs I said, it's a gut feel, of course I will read eveything and my vote could change. Everytime I vote for gnarlycharlie my stomach is in knots cos he usually comes back with something hurtful but I have got to go with what I think. i hope you don't really think i say hurtful things. if i vote you, it's not personal. as for your vote, it's always difficult to defend one's self against a gut vote. that being said, you have voted me in other games before and been wrong. what makes you think your gut is right this time? Well, that was a depressingly short game for me. And I was really excited for this one, too. vote BillMc for party poopering. And apart from that, like Iago, from this time forth i never will speak word. no defense then? Vote: storyteller
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Day Two
Dec 23, 2013 13:42:11 GMT -5
Post by gnarlycharlie on Dec 23, 2013 13:42:11 GMT -5
NETA: i didn't win any bids.
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Day Two
Dec 23, 2013 15:43:35 GMT -5
Post by Sister Coyote on Dec 23, 2013 15:43:35 GMT -5
vote: storyteller
(Sorry this is so short and I'm not scum hunting like I want to, but my parents have arrived and I've got precious little spare time at the moment.)
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Day Two
Dec 24, 2013 0:01:37 GMT -5
Post by Captain Klutz on Dec 24, 2013 0:01:37 GMT -5
Given how the bidding went, I suspect that Scum decided to basically not bid (or bid very low) to minimise the risk of a Night kill. Note that the latest the game can reasonably last is Day 5, so that leaves little time to get 3 Scum lynches. A Scum dying at Night hurts their team very badly, so instead they can just sit back and let Town kill themselves off.
But we are now in a better position to coordinate our bids. Given how big the bids were, I think it is likely that BillMc, Mahaloth and swammerdami are Town. And guiri too, probably.
So for the 3 Scum items, I suggest that we have just one person bid on them. That way Town will not be fighting each other for them and running up the price. If Scum want them, they will have to pay. And if they decide to take the "no bid, no risk" approach then Town will get them for nothing.
So I suggest that BillMc, Mahaloth and swammerdami each bid for one of Obfuscate, Kill and Block, and that no-one else bid for these. These players will need to agree in this thread who is bidding for what, so Scum will also know that. But they will not know the bid amounts.
For the other items, I suggest that no-one get too carried away trying to win them.
So does anyone see any fatal problems with this plan? Note that we could not coordinate on Day 1, as we had no idea about who was Town. But now I am comfortable with those 3 players. And if anyone thinks that I am trying to remove the risk to myself by having others make the big bids, then I am happy to be the bidder for one of them.
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Day Two
Dec 24, 2013 0:18:32 GMT -5
Post by Captain Klutz on Dec 24, 2013 0:18:32 GMT -5
By a process of elimination, here is my Scum list:
Meeko Sister Coyote gnarlycharlie silverjan texcat
They are in no particular order, except that Meeko is first due to his lack of any substantive posting. I'll put this suspicion on record:
vote: Meeko
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Day Two
Dec 24, 2013 4:06:52 GMT -5
Post by swammerdami on Dec 24, 2013 4:06:52 GMT -5
... So I suggest that BillMc, Mahaloth and swammerdami each bid for one of Obfuscate, Kill and Block, and that no-one else bid for these. These players will need to agree in this thread who is bidding for what, so Scum will also know that. But they will not know the bid amounts. For the other items, I suggest that no-one get too carried away trying to win them. So does anyone see any fatal problems with this plan? Note that we could not coordinate on Day 1, as we had no idea about who was Town. But now I am comfortable with those 3 players. And if anyone thinks that I am trying to remove the risk to myself by having others make the big bids, then I am happy to be the bidder for one of them. Having a single bidder for Obfuscate (or some of the other minor powers) might be OK, but I think each Player needs to use his own judgment for Kill and Investigate. Bill made a great Investigate move yesterDay. Townie should bid big for Investigate (but keep it secret until toMorrow) if and only if they know the perfect target. Single bidding for the minor powers won't save much on the bid anyway -- I think Investigate and Kill are the only Powers deserving a high price. (I'm surprised Players bid so much for Block.) BTW, although I am Town, I don't know that my bidding 9 for self-Protect proves that (although Townie, fearing both Scum and Vig) may be more likely to protect than Scum. I felt I was making small "pro forma" bids and was surprised to win any.
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Day Two
Dec 24, 2013 6:23:11 GMT -5
Post by Captain Klutz on Dec 24, 2013 6:23:11 GMT -5
Having a single bidder for Obfuscate (or some of the other minor powers) might be OK, but I think each Player needs to use his own judgment for Kill and Investigate. Bill made a great Investigate move yesterDay. Townie should bid big for Investigate (but keep it secret until toMorrow) if and only if they know the perfect target. Single bidding for the minor powers won't save much on the bid anyway -- I think Investigate and Kill are the only Powers deserving a high price. (I'm surprised Players bid so much for Block.) BTW, although I am Town, I don't know that my bidding 9 for self-Protect proves that (although Townie, fearing both Scum and Vig) may be more likely to protect than Scum. I felt I was making small "pro forma" bids and was surprised to win any. The problem with "each Player needs to use his own judgment for Kill and Investigate" is that it results in too high a price. Given the prices, we were lucky that there were only 2 Town deaths last Night. If people keep fighting for them, it's going to end up in a Scum victory. If we coordinate our bids a bit (not the amount, just who) then Scum must either compete and take the risk, or let Town have it cheaply. Both of those are good results. "Townie should bid big for Investigate...if and only if they know the perfect target" - I don't know what "perfect target" means. BillMc got lucky last Night, but at a crazy high price. Note that even if you find Scum, if you die in the process then it's a big negative. "although I am Town, I don't know that my bidding 9 for self-Protect proves that". - That's true, it doesn't prove it. But given the bidding results, I do feel reasonably comfortable that you are Town.
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Day Two
Dec 24, 2013 8:12:51 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by guiri on Dec 24, 2013 8:12:51 GMT -5
It may not feel productive but I think Bill's result on Storyteller was likely optimal for toDay, given the time of year and travel/family stuff going on.
I'm good with plans to coordinate bids but I think we should avoid being specific about bid values or specific powers for specific players to avoid giving scum a game plan for tonight. I realize that may not sound like coordination.
I disagree with needing a perfect candidate to investigate, a townie result is important too.
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Day Two
Dec 24, 2013 9:27:30 GMT -5
Post by Silver Jan on Dec 24, 2013 9:27:30 GMT -5
gnarly, I didn't mean to be mean, I should have said that you defend yourself vigorously and that frightens the hell out of me everytime I vote for you.
I think trying to make a co-ordinated bid on some powers would be a good idea, Captain Klutz has an idea that is as good as any I have heard. If it doesn't work then we don't have to do it again.
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Day Two
Dec 24, 2013 9:38:38 GMT -5
Post by Captain Klutz on Dec 24, 2013 9:38:38 GMT -5
It may not feel productive but I think Bill's result on Storyteller was likely optimal for toDay, given the time of year and travel/family stuff going on. I'm good with plans to coordinate bids but I think we should avoid being specific about bid values or specific powers for specific players to avoid giving scum a game plan for tonight. I realize that may not sound like coordination. I disagree with needing a perfect candidate to investigate, a townie result is important too. Defnitely do not be specific about bid values. Let Scum shoot in the dark - do they bid high to push the price up, and risk winning themselves, or do they bid low and give it up cheaply? And with only 2 Scum left, they have less opprtunity to spread any risk. For the Investigative powers, do not assign them to specific players, as that just gives Scum some targets. However, for the three Scum powers (Obfuscate, Kill, Block), this does not apply. So agreeing to have just one player bid for each of these reduces the price and therefore the risk. But we need to agree which player will bid for which power. Now, given the level of activity in this game, can we actually get people to discuss (and possibly agree) over the next 2 or 3 days (that's days, not Days). For the other powers (especially the investigative ones), I suggest that we all do reasonably low bids. We decide for ourselves what "reasonable" means. But don't make the same bid for each power, mix it up a bit. That way the investigative powers will end up spread among different players, pretty well at random, so Scum do not have an obvious target. Also, an important reminder: we will probably only have 4 lynches this game, possibly 5. If Scum can avoid being Night killed, they can easily win by default. So I believe that Scum will play safe and not bid very high. So as long as Townies do not get too competitive, we can keep prices down. Heck, look what happened with Investigate: 2 (probable) Townies bid a ridiculously high price. We were very lucky that BillMc didn't die, taking all his results with him.
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Meeko
FGM
I raccoon it's time to play Mafia
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Day Two
Dec 24, 2013 9:47:38 GMT -5
Post by Meeko on Dec 24, 2013 9:47:38 GMT -5
Given how the bidding went, I suspect that Scum decided to basically not bid (or bid very low) to minimise the risk of a Night kill. Note that the latest the game can reasonably last is Day 5, so that leaves little time to get 3 Scum lynches. A Scum dying at Night hurts their team very badly, so instead they can just sit back and let Town kill themselves off. But we are now in a better position to coordinate our bids. Given how big the bids were, I think it is likely that BillMc, Mahaloth and swammerdami are Town. And guiri too, probably. So for the 3 Scum items, I suggest that we have just one person bid on them. That way Town will not be fighting each other for them and running up the price. If Scum want them, they will have to pay. And if they decide to take the "no bid, no risk" approach then Town will get them for nothing. So I suggest that BillMc, Mahaloth and swammerdami each bid for one of Obfuscate, Kill and Block, and that no-one else bid for these. These players will need to agree in this thread who is bidding for what, so Scum will also know that. But they will not know the bid amounts. For the other items, I suggest that no-one get too carried away trying to win them. So does anyone see any fatal problems with this plan? Note that we could not coordinate on Day 1, as we had no idea about who was Town. But now I am comfortable with those 3 players. And if anyone thinks that I am trying to remove the risk to myself by having others make the big bids, then I am happy to be the bidder for one of them. I don't follow how you are linking size of bids to each player. Remember the bids that won the auction were NOT given by those that won. You are pairing the wrong people to the bids. If we co-ordinate, what is preventing scum from posting a low number, but then actually sending higher number for their bid? What's stopping them from not posting anything at all, but simply one upping the highest bid reported? Also, what are your thoughts on Story? Your vote would indicate that you think me scum over him. Or are you skimming?
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Meeko
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Day Two
Dec 24, 2013 9:52:20 GMT -5
Post by Meeko on Dec 24, 2013 9:52:20 GMT -5
I swear multi vote games will be the death of me.
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Day Two
Dec 24, 2013 10:12:08 GMT -5
Post by Mahaloth on Dec 24, 2013 10:12:08 GMT -5
I will bid on kill toNight, but will not reveal the amount I'm bidding.
Good?
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Day Two
Dec 24, 2013 11:13:15 GMT -5
Post by Captain Klutz on Dec 24, 2013 11:13:15 GMT -5
I don't follow how you are linking size of bids to each player. Remember the bids that won the auction were NOT given by those that won. You are pairing the wrong people to the bids. If we co-ordinate, what is preventing scum from posting a low number, but then actually sending higher number for their bid? What's stopping them from not posting anything at all, but simply one upping the highest bid reported? Also, what are your thoughts on Story? Your vote would indicate that you think me scum over him. Or are you skimming? I'm not sure what you are saying about linking bids. We know what BillMc, Mahaloth and swammerdami bid. We don't know guiri's bid, but he did bid. As for the size of bids, I have repeatedly said that we do NOT specify how much we are bidding. Are you skimming?
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Day Two
Dec 24, 2013 11:16:13 GMT -5
Post by Captain Klutz on Dec 24, 2013 11:16:13 GMT -5
I will bid on kill toNight, but will not reveal the amount I'm bidding. Good? I'm happy with that. Now if we can just get BillMc and swammerdami to agree to pick one of the other two powers.
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