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Day One
May 27, 2008 12:20:13 GMT -5
Post by tdpatriots12 on May 27, 2008 12:20:13 GMT -5
Assumptions are already being made, and possibilities are being thrown out the window, and we don't KNOW that they are good assumptions. We only think they are. So,,,I think we should start making what we know lists. I know, I have said this every game since Blade Runner, but I really think we should be working on these. It will help keep us from starting to assume thing, and it will help keep the new information straight in our own heads. Partially agreed. I'm one of the people who started making assumptions about Scum Type 1 & 2, but I did always intend to come back and flip the assumption on its head after some conversation. What if we're reading it all wrong? Let's assume a contrary scenario, that Scum Type 1 and 2 are more like this: Scum Type 1, effective Godfather Scum Type 2, times whatever number of scum there are, effective goons. All on one team. And that's it? It would fit the color just as well, and be a lot less complicated. There would still be the possibility of pro-town recruitment if the color about exorcism is to be taken seriously. The problem becomes the fact that the scum type 2's, in a traditional game of mafia, would then know who the others are, and would be a liability if turned townie. So, what will tell us which scenario is closer to the truth? These things seem true in any case... * If there is recruitment... it means someone in this game has the ability to perform exorcisms. If they work the way the color implies, it means that if he applies the power appropriately (ie, on Scum Type 2s) it means a +2 swing in favor of town each time. (-1 scum, +1 townie) as opposed to the usual mafia methods of killing players. Seems rather powerful... * If there is holy water... it means someone in this game has an investigative ability. * If the part of the color where it says we don't know how to do any of this stuff, then naturally all this is fairly pointless except it is better than nothing. Doesn't mean there aren't other ways to deal with demons that the Father didn't describe... Lastly I want to ditto what Rysto said re: random voting. BlaM isn't in this game, so I don't know if there is going to be anyone making a case for random voting, but I think there is a better way. Realistically we will probaly lynch town on Day 1, we need to play for the longterm goal of overall win, and voting with stated reasons, ANY reason, nets us more longterm information. IF some of our assumptions are correct, then the likelihood of randomly lynching scum might be abnormally high in this game. But of course they could all be completely wrong, and I'm not at all in favor of random voting.
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Day One
May 27, 2008 12:39:22 GMT -5
Post by Hawkmod on May 27, 2008 12:39:22 GMT -5
IF some of our assumptions are correct, then the likelihood of randomly lynching scum might be abnormally high in this game. But of course they could all be completely wrong, and I'm not at all in favor of random voting. The question isn't how successful a strategy of random lynching would be. Rather, the question is how effective a successful lynch strategy would be in relation to a reason based lynch strategy. I also don't think assumptions are, by definition, bad. In order to not have a random lynch, there needs to be some level of assumption. What is important is we realize what our assumptions are, and have a willingness to back away from them when contradictory evidence presents itself.
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Day One
May 27, 2008 12:50:12 GMT -5
Post by NAF1138 on May 27, 2008 12:50:12 GMT -5
I also don't think assumptions are, by definition, bad. In order to not have a random lynch, there needs to be some level of assumption. What is important is we realize what our assumptions are, and have a willingness to back away from them when contradictory evidence presents itself. Yeah, this is more or less what I was trying to say. We have to make some assumptions in order to play the game. But we need to keep the line between what we KNOW and what we are assuming crystal clear (to the extent that it is possible to do so) and we need to be willing to challange our assumptions. That's why I like that what we know lists.
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Day One
May 27, 2008 12:50:28 GMT -5
Post by KidVermicious on May 27, 2008 12:50:28 GMT -5
I like lists.
I made a speculation list upthread, here's the "what I think we know list", based on the assumption that the color text means anything at all. I think it does, but good call to see if the mod will confirm that.
1) 2 types of demons.
2) 1 type of investigation, which doesn't work on demon type1.
3) There's a recruitment mechanic of some sort available to town, which works on demon type2.
4) Not enough folks posting yet.
re: random voting, I don't like it. We'll reach a point where we can start considering voting as a block for lurkers - that generally fires things up and then we can start looking at posts for content and voting on that.
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Day One
May 27, 2008 13:06:56 GMT -5
Post by Hawkmod on May 27, 2008 13:06:56 GMT -5
Is anyone actually advocating a random lynch? If not, we should focus our attention elsewhere. Like making faulty assumptions
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Day One
May 27, 2008 13:12:55 GMT -5
Post by NAF1138 on May 27, 2008 13:12:55 GMT -5
Is anyone actually advocating a random lynch? If not, we should focus our attention elsewhere. Like making faulty assumptions Not yet, it's only even on my mind because of the recent SDMB games where BlaM posted a long thesis on why random is better.
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Day One
May 27, 2008 13:29:16 GMT -5
Post by ryjae on May 27, 2008 13:29:16 GMT -5
Lets get this day rocking, any demons want to say hi? It would totally piss off atarus but it would be funny. Veterans, guesstimates on the amount of power roles in your opinion for both scum and town factions? I can safely say this game will confuse the shit outta me, but in all good ways. Exorcisms, demons, and fun oh my.
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Day One
May 27, 2008 13:32:51 GMT -5
Post by Czech on May 27, 2008 13:32:51 GMT -5
I'm kind of soaking it all in at this point. I have to admit, all of the games I've played up to this point have been very simple three-to-four day numbers with 10-12 players in total. So the complexity of the setup is making it very challenging for me to follow everything.
At this point, I'm awaiting mod approval on whether the color text actually sheds focused light on the setup itself.
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Day One
May 27, 2008 13:32:58 GMT -5
Post by The Real FCOD on May 27, 2008 13:32:58 GMT -5
I'm going to make a lot of assumptions in the post, but I think they follow logically as long as we accept some of the color as fact. If the quotes from Father Redford's demon book don't actually have any relevance to the game I'll be shocked, so I am going to assume they are true.
From the color, we learn that: There are two types of demons (S1-corporeal and S2-incorporeal). The S1 demons are indistinguishable from humans. The S2 demons possess humans and can be removed via exorcism.
From this, we can assume that there is a town player with an exorcism ability.
It reasonable to assume that the S1 demons are hiding among the 25 survivors in Last Bastion, and are actually being "played" by some of the 25 players. However, should we assume that the S2 demons are actually being "played" by someone? If S2 demons are actual players, they would already have to be in possession of a survivor at the start of the game, as there are 25 players and 25 survivors. If this is the case, the scum faction(s) could not have a recruitment ability, as a survivor couldn't be played by two players.
If the S2 demons are not actual players, there must be an ability somewhere amongst the scum that "summons" an S2 demon to take over a survivor. In this case, either the S2 possessed survivors cannot know who the other demons are or have any communication with them, or the town does not have an exorcism ability. It would break the game if a possessed human that can communicate with other demons can be turned back to good.
I think there are three possibilities:
1) A number of survivors are already possessed by S2 demons and the town has an exorcism ability that can turn an S2 demon possessed survivor to the town side. or 2) There are no survivors that are possessed, yet. Possessed survivors cannot communicate with any other demons and aren't aware of who the other demons are, as they can be exorcised and returned to normal humans. or 3) There are no survivors that are possessed, yet, and the town cannot exorcise possessed survivors.
I don't think scenario 3 is a good one, as from the color it seems that we (the town) can exorcise possessed survivors. I think that 1 is the most likely scenario, as I don't think it would make sense for possessed survivors to have no contact with any other demons.
Thoughts?
--FCOD
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Day One
May 27, 2008 13:46:05 GMT -5
Post by ryjae on May 27, 2008 13:46:05 GMT -5
Makes sense, but is it the priest who identifies the possessed and exorcises them do you think or another role that id's the possessed? *Example*
The demon hunter if you will, investigates scumA tonight finds them actually sortascumbutnotallscum does that same person now perform an exorcism or have to have someone else do it for them? And how would the person pass on the information to the exorcist unless they're one and the same. *bamboozled just thinking about it all*
Okay going to read through the color again see if I still agree with #1 which seems to make the most sense right now to me.
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Day One
May 27, 2008 13:51:23 GMT -5
Post by The Real FCOD on May 27, 2008 13:51:23 GMT -5
The color seems to allude to two separate abilities: holy water and exorcism. It makes sense to me that one player can investigate by using holy water and another player can convert by exorcising. I think that one player that can do both is a little too powerful. Of course, all of this speculation goes out the window if our mod says that the color can't be trusted.
--FCOD
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Day One
May 27, 2008 13:52:31 GMT -5
Post by hockeyguy8435 on May 27, 2008 13:52:31 GMT -5
Sorry for not posting as much as I would like, busy day yesterday, and I work later tonight. Anyways.
My take on this is that the color (which I assume you all mean is the opening story, right?) has to have some truth behind it. So the two types of demons thing seems right in my opinion, as well as some of the other observations people have mentioned. The holy water, exorcisms, etc. They just confuse the hell out of me, as the whole recruiting, and how to kill and how not to kill certain demons is very complex and I've never seen it in any non-forum Mafia type game.
I also agree with NAF on assumptions. Yes, we have to assume to some extent, but you can't bet all your chips on one assumption. It's like poker, you have to leave yourself some outs, and only move all in when we know we're absolutely right. We need to assume, but have the power to change our minds when our assumptions get proven wrong.
As for random voting, I disagree. What do you gain by voting for someone randomly with no reasoning? Nothing. Even if your vote isn't based on solid evidence, if you at least provide some reasoning, we learn more, instead of just from what said player flips upon their exit from the game.
I'll post more when it comes to me.
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Day One
May 27, 2008 14:00:33 GMT -5
Post by KidVermicious on May 27, 2008 14:00:33 GMT -5
I think there are three possibilities: 1) A number of survivors are already possessed by S2 demons and the town has an exorcism ability that can turn an S2 demon possessed survivor to the town side. or 2) There are no survivors that are possessed, yet. Possessed survivors cannot communicate with any other demons and aren't aware of who the other demons are, as they can be exorcised and returned to normal humans. or 3) There are no survivors that are possessed, yet, and the town cannot exorcise possessed survivors. I don't think scenario 3 is a good one, as from the color it seems that we (the town) can exorcise possessed survivors. I think that 1 is the most likely scenario, as I don't think it would make sense for possessed survivors to have no contact with any other demons. Thoughts? --FCOD Uh. So, you're proposing that the subs come in and take over another posters account for the duration of the possession? This would be a horribly bastardly thing to do as a mod, and makes my head hurt. Am I misremembering, or did Astarus say something in the recruitment thread about wanting lots of subs?Applying Occams Razor (which may not be a wise thing to do), I think option 2 is the most likely scenario, for reasons I laid out upthread having to do with the exact text in that bit of color. I think option 1 is less likely, and 3 only applies if the color is meaningless.
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Day One
May 27, 2008 14:13:47 GMT -5
Post by The Real FCOD on May 27, 2008 14:13:47 GMT -5
Uh. So, you're proposing that the subs come in and take over another posters account for the duration of the possession? This would be a horribly bastardly thing to do as a mod, and makes my head hurt. No, I'm saying I don't think it'd be possible. That's why I think the only way recruitment can go both ways is if the possessed survivors don't receive any information on any other demons. Applying Occams Razor (which may not be a wise thing to do), I think option 2 is the most likely scenario, for reasons I laid out upthread having to do with the exact text in that bit of color. I think option 1 is less likely, and 3 only applies if the color is meaningless. Would you mind going into detail about why you prefer scenario 2 over scenario 1? --FCOD
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Day One
May 27, 2008 14:31:48 GMT -5
Post by KidVermicious on May 27, 2008 14:31:48 GMT -5
Post 48, FCOD. *snip* We're on page 2, so I've quoted the relevant color below for context. The things that makes me think type2 can recruit are "possess human bodies" (notice the plural), and the last line, "as long as it was living when the demon possessed it". We're all alive at Day 1, so if a type2 is just a bad guy with "possessed townie" as color, why include that line? The whole paragraph is pretty obviously intended to convey opening information regarding a specific role and some game mechanics that pertain to it, so I wouldn't expect any of the wording to be useless in terms of info that can be gleaned. FWIW, I don't know what value there is in thinking this way - it certainly doesn't pertain to Day 1, and by the time it becomes relevant we'll probably have other data to consider as well. Just passing the time and getting my feet wet. ;D I'm thinking to myself that if: 1)Giving anybody control of anothers account, or even apparent control, is implausible, and 2)based on the above, I think type2 demons can recruit and be unrecruited, and 3)it would be game-breaking for a faction thats going to be frequently switching sides to be able to talk to other members of said faction, then in order of percieved likelyhood: A. There's something in the role information for existing type2s that sez they can't be flipped, and subsequently created type2s won't know who the boss type2s are, or B. There are no type2s at the start of the game, they'll be created by type1s or something else and not know eachother, or C. Atarus has come up with a way to keep the game from breaking if they talk. Thats my thought process, anyway.
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Day One
May 27, 2008 14:38:27 GMT -5
Post by KidVermicious on May 27, 2008 14:38:27 GMT -5
Oof... I think a lightbulb just came on, somebody chew on this with me.
"...as long as it was living when the demon possessed it"
Seems like an awfully good way to accomplish scenario A in my above post - stipulate that existing type2 demons are inhabiting dead bodies at the start of the game. An exorcism would either have no effect or kill them outright.
So if you take the above, and say further that recruited type2s can't talk to the mothership, then you've got a solid recruiting/unrecruiting faction that isn't gamebreaking, and explained that bit of color.
Assuming the color means anything, of course.
How does this taste? It's working for me, but its my idea... somebody shoot it down.
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Day One
May 27, 2008 14:48:46 GMT -5
Post by hockeyguy8435 on May 27, 2008 14:48:46 GMT -5
It removes the problem of having demons flipped town and ratting out their scum buddies, by saying only recruited people can be flipped back to town and that once recruited you can't speak to other scum. It leaves for an ever changing third group of players who would probably be teamed with the scum, just not know who is scum.
That just leaves the issue of, does anyone start with that role? My guess would be no. I don't think atarus would start anyone as a recruit on Day One. Unless the demons were able to recruit already, but seeing as how all roles were issued at the same time, right before the Day started, they probably haven't recruited anyone, unless they can talk during the Day phase. Is that standard in forum Mafia? Having scum talk to each other during the Day phase, or exclusively to the Night phase?
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Day One
May 27, 2008 15:09:25 GMT -5
Post by Hal Briston on May 27, 2008 15:09:25 GMT -5
1) A number of survivors are already possessed by S2 demons and the town has an exorcism ability that can turn an S2 demon possessed survivor to the town side. Seems to me that's the most likely scenario.
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Day One
May 27, 2008 15:10:11 GMT -5
Post by tdpatriots12 on May 27, 2008 15:10:11 GMT -5
So if the current assumption we're toying with is that the game starts out favoring town with opportunities for the scum/demons to start possessing people....
Practically, that means we must confront the question of what to do if we are possessed.
I think it should be understood that any townie who gets possessed by a demon should quickly report it.
If there is someone with an exorcism ability, we hopefully find out the next day .
If no one gets possessed, then we have to ask, "Did someone get possessed and then, for reasons that are not apparent, refuse to inform the town?" and "Do the scum even possess such an ability?"
As far as the assumption about taking over user accounts or somehow involving nonplayers... I'm not sure how to put this, but it doesn't sound like Mafia.
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Day One
May 27, 2008 15:16:29 GMT -5
Post by The Real FCOD on May 27, 2008 15:16:29 GMT -5
I just realized, that assuming my scenario #1 is true, then the existing S2 possessed players would still have to be separate from other demons. If there's a chance of an exorcism the possessed player can't have information about other demons...
So, scenario 1 and scenario 2 are a lot more similar than I thought.
--FCOD
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Day One
May 27, 2008 15:17:28 GMT -5
Post by KidVermicious on May 27, 2008 15:17:28 GMT -5
1) A number of survivors are already possessed by S2 demons and the town has an exorcism ability that can turn an S2 demon possessed survivor to the town side. Seems to me that's the most likely scenario. What do you think of post 48, Hal? If that doesn't make sense, I'd like to hear why you don't think so.
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Day One
May 27, 2008 15:28:33 GMT -5
Post by The Real FCOD on May 27, 2008 15:28:33 GMT -5
Practically, that means we must confront the question of what to do if we are possessed. I think it should be understood that any townie who gets possessed by a demon should quickly report it. Are you serious? I think it's pretty obvious that a possessed player either wouldn't want or wouldn't be able to say that they are possessed. I'm not really sure how this sort of game mechanic would work. That is, what is to prevent a possessed survivor from saying he/she is possessed? I am thinking that it's more likely that the S2 possessed players are already possessed and that the only type of "recruitment" in the game is a scum->town exorcism. --FCOD
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Day One
May 27, 2008 15:36:58 GMT -5
Post by KidVermicious on May 27, 2008 15:36:58 GMT -5
FCOD, thats not worth a fos, but you get a raised eyebrow from me.
Barring some brilliance on Atarus' part, I see no practical way to prevent flipped townies from declaring their flippedness.
So if a townie gets flipped, optimal play for town and that player is to declare immediately, and hope for exorcism. Otherwise, they're going to get lynched down the road, and we should be very suspicious of the motivations of anybody that declares as a flipped townie while they've got a noose around their neck.
I don't think it's likely that the only recruitment is scum to town, and until somebody pokes a hole in my logic, I'm going to keep raising eyebrows at anybody that continues to ignore it.
Per NAF, adding the caveat that we're speculating on what the color sez, and this may all be a waste of time.
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Day One
May 27, 2008 15:43:39 GMT -5
Post by NAF1138 on May 27, 2008 15:43:39 GMT -5
Practically, that means we must confront the question of what to do if we are possessed. I think it should be understood that any townie who gets possessed by a demon should quickly report it. Are you serious? I think it's pretty obvious that a possessed player either wouldn't want or wouldn't be able to say that they are possessed. I'm not really sure how this sort of game mechanic would work. That is, what is to prevent a possessed survivor from saying he/she is possessed? I am thinking that it's more likely that the S2 possessed players are already possessed and that the only type of "recruitment" in the game is a scum->town exorcism. --FCOD Well that brings up a slightly metagamey issue of how much did/would atarus adjust the game setup in response to Cecilvania's Day 1 discussion. If you are not following Cecilvania, a lot of that discussion was centered around the role of Dracula who has the power to recruit and make baby vampires. The vampires turn into town if Dracula is killed. There was a lot of discussion regarding if Dracula would convert anyone at all, and what people who had been converted should do. The discussion seems to be mostly dropped now, but it took up a LARGE portion of the first Day, and I wonder if it would have colored how atarus put together his roles.
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Day One
May 27, 2008 15:52:20 GMT -5
Post by The Real FCOD on May 27, 2008 15:52:20 GMT -5
FCOD, thats not worth a fos, but you get a raised eyebrow from me. Barring some brilliance on Atarus' part, I see no practical way to prevent flipped townies from declaring their flippedness. So if a townie gets flipped, optimal play for town and that player is to declare immediately, and hope for exorcism. Otherwise, they're going to get lynched down the road, and we should be very suspicious of the motivations of anybody that declares as a flipped townie while they've got a noose around their neck. I just don't see why a possessed survivor would WANT to declare that they've been possessed. It doesn't take any genius on atarus' behalf to figure out that the demons would want to kill a possessed survivor that exposes him/herself... It doesn't add up to me. If the possessed survivor announces to the town that they are possessed, wouldn't the other demons want to kill him/her ASAP? Not only that, but being possessed, wouldn't he/she want the town to lose? --FCOD
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Day One
May 27, 2008 16:02:32 GMT -5
Post by Rysto on May 27, 2008 16:02:32 GMT -5
If an exorcism returns them to the Town's side, then perhaps no.
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Day One
May 27, 2008 16:05:59 GMT -5
Post by NAF1138 on May 27, 2008 16:05:59 GMT -5
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Day One
May 27, 2008 16:07:00 GMT -5
Post by NAF1138 on May 27, 2008 16:07:00 GMT -5
NETA: My point is, I think that he would avoid creating the same situation in this game. Not that he has created the same situation.
I don't know if that was clear.
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Day One
May 27, 2008 16:11:22 GMT -5
Post by KidVermicious on May 27, 2008 16:11:22 GMT -5
We'll probably end up rehashing the debate in Cecilvania (I'm not in that game, just watching).
Right now, from a townies perspective, would you agree that an immediate declaration by a flipped townie is in towns best interest?
In the Cecilvania game, personal motivation for that declaration is pretty solid - consensus states that barring some brilliant play, Dracula is not going to be a winning faction, so a flipped townie wouldn't want to stay on his side.
We don't have that consensus here, but it will still be in towns best interest if we all agree to declare if we get flipped, and to automatically disregard any declarations of flippedness (can I TM this word?) made under duress. Whether or not the lynchee is telling the truth at that point, they've already displayed anti-town motivation, and should be stretched. So for personal motivation, I s'pose it'll depend on which way you (hypothetical you) see the wind blowing. But hypothetical you shouldn't expect any sympathy from me once you've made that bed... you'll hafta sleep in it too.
Regarding the chance of scum killing a declared flippee, I'm not too worried about that either. If that happens, then scum has wasted an action recruiting that player in the first place, which is also of benefit to town.
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Day One
May 27, 2008 16:23:16 GMT -5
Post by Hal Briston on May 27, 2008 16:23:16 GMT -5
I think it's pretty obvious that a possessed player [...] wouldn't be able to say that they are possessed. Exactly my thoughts.
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