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Post by Mister Blockey on Jun 25, 2008 15:29:10 GMT -5
Roosh I can not win if there are any other horsemen alive.
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Post by Greedy Smurf on Jun 25, 2008 18:38:10 GMT -5
Well holy crap. I'm going to have to get a vote out very shortly because I may not be around again until Dusk now. Can I 4th or 5th or whatever we're up to for the Masons to claim. Even if there were only two of you to start, that still drops one more name off the list of potentials. Looking at my little spreadsheet presents a very disconcerting picture - We have 11 players left now. Up to 4 of the eleven could be demons, and up to 4 horsemen. So therotically we could be down to 3 actual townies. Which means me, probably Nanook I think, and one other - whoever is the mason I suppose? That is a very scary thought. Even best case would be along the lines of 3 demons, I don't think we can count on any less than that 2 Horsemen, would be best case for them, Blockey and one other, Which leaves 6 townies. Slightily more reassuring but still not great. So onto the voting. Blockey is safe for the moment from me, we can't afford to lynch him just yet. Rysto I am not buying his role claim. I think he is a horseman, and a serial killing one to boot. It is a big toss up for me as to whether lynching him as a PFK, which right now counts as a mislynch, is worse than letting him roam free with his night kill. Blam is purposely playing differently this game, is not being real helpful to town. He has jumped from 1 to 3 votes awfully quickly, I am looking that way myself. pedescribe and hawkeye I just don't have a read on. Big time lurking there. Kat - has good townie cred, except for one thing which I've recently realised. Based upon her being the scum target night 1, I said she was as good as confirmed town, but she could be a horseman as well. So I've slightily backtracked on my "as good as confirmed town". But she is still way way down my list of suspects. NAF claimed power role, seems to be supported by a couple of night actions - a long way down my list of suspects ATM. Nanook I'm happy with his claim, I think he's an Angel. Roosh Honestly I think that subconsciouly at least, I have put Roosh in the 'to hard' basket. How to evaluate the role of amensiac? Could Roosh be making the it up from whole cloth? From what I know of Roosh I think he is definitely capable of that? It does seem a risky approach to take if he is scum or a horseman though. Mhaye I don't have much of a read on Mhaye either, if I had to go with my gut I would say he is a townie. I started out to do a quick analysis of a few people, and wound up with my thoughts on all the remaining players. It has helped to organise my thoughts though. After Kison's lynch I'm a bit gunshy of jumping on board wagons that seem to be accelerating out of hand, but when I fall back on "Who Do I think is scummiest", I keep coming back to Blam. So I have to VOTE BLAM
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Post by Gir! on Jun 25, 2008 18:52:06 GMT -5
Damn. Damndamndamndamndamn. We're screwed.
The people I'd most like to see something from today/tonight are BlaM, pedescribe and hawkeye. I have to agree that now is the time for roleclaims, from those who have 'em.
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Post by Mister Blockey on Jun 25, 2008 20:19:00 GMT -5
I'm going to hold off on a vote for now, but I'm leaning towards BlaM, as he's definitely been the most scummy, however the pedescribe lurking doesn't seem to bode well either.
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Post by Rysto on Jun 25, 2008 20:46:44 GMT -5
Smurf, I'd be quite interested to hear what brought you from this point: Rysto I am not buying his role claim. I think he is a horseman, and a serial killing one to boot. It is a big toss up for me as to whether lynching him as a PFK, which right now counts as a mislynch, is worse than letting him roam free with his night kill. From my vantage point(which is obviously coloured by the fact that I know that your second conclusion is false), this looks like a very opportunistic change of opinions. And I'd love to know how you came to this conclusion: Only four demons? 5 demons out of 25 seems low to me.
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Post by Rysto on Jun 25, 2008 20:49:55 GMT -5
God damn it. Nobody quote that post or everything will break again. I intended to say: Smurf, I'd be quite interested to hear what brought you from this point: Just to "show my working" as it were. I contend that there are only 2 nightkillers in the game - the scum and the vigilante+(backup). to this: Rysto I am not buying his role claim. I think he is a horseman, and a serial killing one to boot. It is a big toss up for me as to whether lynching him as a PFK, which right now counts as a mislynch, is worse than letting him roam free with his night kill.
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Post by Mister Blockey on Jun 25, 2008 20:52:15 GMT -5
Ummmm Rysto 4 demons left would mean 6 at game start. Remember Hockeyguy?
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Post by Rysto on Jun 25, 2008 20:54:05 GMT -5
Ummmm Rysto 4 demons left would mean 6 at game start. Remember Hockeyguy? Yes, I do. I forgot Hockey Monkey.
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Post by Greedy Smurf on Jun 25, 2008 21:13:02 GMT -5
I intended to say: Smurf, I'd be quite interested to hear what brought you from this point: Just to "show my working" as it were. I contend that there are only 2 nightkillers in the game - the scum and the vigilante+(backup). to this: Rysto I am not buying his role claim. I think he is a horseman, and a serial killing one to boot. It is a big toss up for me as to whether lynching him as a PFK, which right now counts as a mislynch, is worse than letting him roam free with his night kill. Blockey has handled the query RE demon numbers. So in respect to your other question. I initially accepted your claim at face value, but thinking about it, one of the easiest cover claims for a SK is to claim Vig. However, as I began to type up an explanation of my thought process for that leap, I see my little paranoid man managed to win out over my rational thought, because I now see a gaping fatal flaw in my reasoning. I retract my horseman statement about you Rysto, because I'm an idiot. If you were a Serial Killing horseman, you would have been killing right from Night 1, making for 3 night kills. This game does my head in sometimes, you think you have got an 'Ah ha' moment, happily ignoring a bit of known evidence that is staring you in the face.
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Post by Gir! on Jun 25, 2008 22:10:33 GMT -5
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Post by Gir! on Jun 25, 2008 22:16:29 GMT -5
Bah. Apparently the "Link to Post" links are completely worthless.
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Post by Gir! on Jun 25, 2008 22:22:23 GMT -5
One thing I wonder, is if the
was some kind of signal, or request for approval to take out story. I plan to go back and see who responded to it, after I finish checking to see if I can get good links to the voting posts.
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Post by Hawkmod on Jun 25, 2008 22:29:08 GMT -5
Well, then. Sorry all, I exist, but it has been a rather hellacious week. I'm going to attempt to pull a Blaster, and be active on the end the of day, but that might not happen. I'm okay with the Blaster lynch, but I want to take a closer look at who was pushing the Story lynch today. NAF seems very suspicious to me.
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Post by Hawkmod on Jun 25, 2008 22:39:48 GMT -5
As far as me, I do have a power role, but I'm not sure of the need to reveal it yet. I'll leave it up to Rysto. If you need that info to not kill me tonight, I'll give it.
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Post by Gir! on Jun 25, 2008 22:42:03 GMT -5
No, apparently, there's no good Link to Post linking possible. Or none that I can find. Here's quotsies instead. I hope this isn't too long.
Day One Voted Tragic (molefan - dead) – for voting bufftabby (claimed Mason)
Day Two Voted BlaM (alive – unrevealed) – pressure vote
Unvoted and voted tdpatriots (dead) – as “only other person in contention” (other options: SDM and ryjae).
Day Three Voted Roosh (alive – Amnesiac?) – wanted explanation for milkiness. Would have also liked to vote for story.
Harped on milk a lot this day. Unvoted Roosh
Voted Darth (dead) - for breadcrumb comment.
Unvoted and voted FCoD (dead) - for overreaction.
Claimed Martyr
Day Four Voted Darth (dead) - for breadcrumb comment and “knowing” BlaM would be a mislynch.
Day Five Voted storyteller (dead) – for 5 Point List related to Kison-resurrection offer
Unvoted story, gave cryptic comment.
Voted misterblockey (alive – PFK horseman?) – accused him of lying about Night One action.
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Post by Gir! on Jun 25, 2008 22:50:20 GMT -5
Okay, so while I was combing the HM posts for votes, several comments regarding BlaM caught my eye. I have no idea at this point if HM was trying to distance herself from a BlaM bandwagon (in case he was lynched based on the comments and came up Town) or trying to create breadcrumbs to point at ("Hey, I suspected him") if he was lynched and came up Scum, or if I'm seeing something that isn't there at all. I'd like opinions, if anyone has some. Here are the quotes:
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Post by Hawkmod on Jun 25, 2008 22:57:10 GMT -5
Okay, so while I was combing the HM posts for votes, several comments regarding BlaM caught my eye. I have no idea at this point if HM was trying to distance herself from a BlaM bandwagon (in case he was lynched based on the comments and came up Town) or trying to create breadcrumbs to point at ("Hey, I suspected him") if he was lynched and came up Scum, or if I'm seeing something that isn't there at all. I'd like opinions, if anyone has some. Here are the quotes: I'd lean towards the breadcrumb option. Hockey complained a lot there, but never voted, at least not when it mattered. She fingered him without increasing the odds of him being lynched.
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Post by Gir! on Jun 25, 2008 23:03:13 GMT -5
One thing I wonder, is if the was some kind of signal, or request for approval to take out story. I plan to go back and see who responded to it, after I finish checking to see if I can get good links to the voting posts. For those who want to read the posts, you can go back to page 6 of today and take a look. The posts between HM's post quotes above and the deaths were: Rysto (quoted the post) Me (in reply to an earlier HM post) NAF (quoted the post) Diomedes (the Gastard!) misterblockey (quoted the post) story - 4 posts HM - 2 posts story again story is the only one who appears to have picked up malicious intent in the post. If HM was waiting for a reply, the apparent choice at first glance would be NAF's "Well, that's for damn sure.", although if something was set up beforehand, it could just as easily been any reply at all that indicated approval of the action.
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Post by Gir! on Jun 25, 2008 23:13:53 GMT -5
Okay, going back over NAF's posts, it feels to me like he was too consistent in his pursuit of HM, especially during the close vote with FCOD on Day Three for him to be Demonic, especially considering she was power-role scum and one such had already been lynched.
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Post by Gir! on Jun 25, 2008 23:30:20 GMT -5
Vote BlaM.
If it weren't for the fact that I can't think of a reason for a Demon to have advanced the milk-post-restriction theory, I'd probably be voting for pedescribe. I reiterate that I'd like to see ped do some more posting before Dusk, and possibly roleclaim. Especially would like to see his comments on the large cashe of fascinating data that he brought up during Night Four.
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Post by Gir! on Jun 26, 2008 7:09:11 GMT -5
So, what? Did I kill it?
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Post by Rysto on Jun 26, 2008 9:16:35 GMT -5
Okay, going back over NAF's posts, it feels to me like he was too consistent in his pursuit of HM, especially during the close vote with FCOD on Day Three for him to be Demonic, especially considering she was power-role scum and one such had already been lynched. I disagree with this. The nature of HM's power is such that she could afford to pile up early suspicion, because she could sacrifice herself to kill the most important Townie. Her power wouldn't be as useful towards the endgame because a 1-for-1 trade is a bad deal for the Demons at that time. NAF easily could be a Demon who was bussing Hockey for Townie cred. The only confirmed piece of information we have about him is that he role-blocked me last Night. The rest of his claim could be entirely manufactured. blockey, NAF claims that you redirected an investigation of HM to tdpats, and the results came back " tdpats is Town". From what you know of your role, is it more likely that the results of a redirected investigation would come back " tdpats is Town" or just "Town"? Finally, the only thing that I got out of my analysis of Kison was that Night Two, he either got a town result on Hockey or a guilty on NAF, and I have a feeling that the former didn't happen...
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Post by Nanook on Jun 26, 2008 10:00:54 GMT -5
Can you show me where you came up with that Rysto? If accurate, it's extremely helpful for us.
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Post by NAF1138 on Jun 26, 2008 10:02:14 GMT -5
blockey, NAF claims that you redirected an investigation of HM to tdpats, and the results came back " tdpats is Town". From what you know of your role, is it more likely that the results of a redirected investigation would come back " tdpats is Town" or just "Town"? Rysto, this is seriously reaching. Why are you trying to hard to get me killed? Right now it is between you and blocky for who gets my vote toDay. I don't agree that at this point a PFK is a mislynch. If there are 4 horsemen out there and 4 scum (based on smurfs numbers) then we are a lynch or lose with regards to town losing as a whole to the horsemen or demons if horsemen act as a group. If they are each on their own as blocky claims, then they are still dangerous to the town. I need to think on this for a couple more hours and see what else gets said before I vote.
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Post by Rysto on Jun 26, 2008 10:04:05 GMT -5
Can you show me where you came up with that Rysto? If accurate, it's extremely helpful for us. Right here. (Hey look, Kat, Link to Post works for me )
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Post by NAF1138 on Jun 26, 2008 10:27:44 GMT -5
I don't know what to do here Rysto. You're case against me has been nothing but "I don't know, but it sure could be that NAF is scum" right from the start. And when asked to show why you think Kison investigated me you link to a post of your own where you say you think Kison investigated me and then go on about how we should lynch BlaM.
This whole thing bothers me a hell of a lot.
I was right about Blocky, I was right about HM. I think I am right about you too.
vote Rysto
Don't know if you are a demon, but I am 100% positive that you are anti-town.
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Post by Rysto on Jun 26, 2008 10:38:31 GMT -5
Rysto, this is seriously reaching. Why are you trying to hard to get me killed? You, NAF, have made a role-claim. blockey potentially has information that impacts the veracity of that claim. Because nobody bothered to analyse the consistency of HM's claim with respect to story until toDay, we lost a very power role. As far as I'm concerned, the free ride is over for all claims in this game. We can't afford to keep messing around and ignoring valuable information. If you think that analysing claims in anti-Town then there's nothing I can say to you. On preview: I took Nanook to be asking "can you link to your analysis of Kison in which you made your conclusion about HM and NAF". If you all want to see the original posts I can dig those up, too.
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Post by Mister Blockey on Jun 26, 2008 10:40:40 GMT -5
Rereading NAF's reply to Hockey Monkey, combined with Rysto reminding me that I in fact asked the mod about knowledge of redirection at the start of the game, and he said no one effected would have any knowledge of it. (not in precisely those words of course)
I'm gonna go ahead and say NAF's looking scummier and scummier.
Also I know for sure the other horseman(men) aren't working with me, and I doubt very strongly if there's more than one other, that they're working together.
What better cover for a demon than to lynch the next best thing to a demon, a pfk....
(Notice he still seems to think Rysto is a horseman)
But wait there's more. As far as I can tell town has come to a general consensus, (and had done so before I came out pfk) that lynching a pfk can be a bad idea, especially if we're heading towards lylo, which, with story gone we seem to be, but NAF is talking like we can afford to have demons running around as long as we kill independent pfk's. I don't like this logic even if it didn't apply directly to me.
I think that NAF wants us lynching Horsemen so that the scum can focus on killing town.
Vote NAF
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Post by NAF1138 on Jun 26, 2008 10:44:27 GMT -5
Rysto, this is seriously reaching. Why are you trying to hard to get me killed? You, NAF, have made a role-claim. blockey potentially has information that impacts the veracity of that claim. I think that's totally fair. Anylise the hell out of me and my claim. That isn't what you said to do though. You are asking blocky for a semantic argument. Unless I am totally misunderstanding you. In which case I will retract the point if you clairfy. Because nobody bothered to analyse the consistency of HM's claim with respect to story until toDay, we lost a very power role. As far as I'm concerned, the free ride is over for all claims in this game. We can't afford to keep messing around and ignoring valuable information. If you think that analysing claims in anti-Town then there's nothing I can say to you. Hello, hi! See me over here? I have been voting for HM since before she claimed, and have been calling her claim BS since she claimed. It wasn't nobody. Also, I didn't say anylizing claims is anti town because I didn't see you asking for analysis of a claim you asked for analysis of my wording.
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Post by Mister Blockey on Jun 26, 2008 10:47:11 GMT -5
Of all the demons for a fellow demon to hound HM was the best choice.....
Just sayin.....
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