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Post by Hawkmod on Jul 10, 2008 8:59:11 GMT -5
First off Kat,
I think her aggressive behavior regarding Hockeyguy day 1 is enough to think she is unlikely to be scum. However, there is reason to think that isn't a PFK too. We have no reason to believe Misterblockey lied other then perhaps about his win condition. Misterblockey claimed his power did not work on other horsemen. Night one Hal was killed. Misterblockey targeted Hal and Kat with his power switch. Therefore, the scum either attacked Hal or Kat. Given Hal's situation, it is unlikely that the scum would target him. Thus, we can conclude that they targeted Kat and that Misterblockey's power worked, meaning Kat could not be a horseman.
This is not definite proof that Kat is town, but it is pretty close.
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Post by Hawkmod on Jul 10, 2008 10:30:35 GMT -5
On to our blue friend.
Smurf:
There are numerous little things that lead me to believe that the Smurf most likely (the final?) scum. He has been agreeable to nearly all arguments all game long, without putting himself out on a limb. He argued “Roosh is all but confirmed as town” after night five, while ignoring the possibility of himself being the scum’s target. He mentioned the possible number of scum left multiple times, which seems like something scum would think about more than town. He was the only voter for Buff that is possibly not town. He argued his actions weren’t scummy because he always plays like this, an argument similar to one Hockey made. He has had a habit of voting for lurkers rather than people he finds scummy. He has focused completely on finding horseman today, not even theorizing on who could possibly be scum. There were other pings during my reread, but the big thing is that I don’t believe his claim.
The role is entirely too passive. Almost every other role I’ve seen requiring some decision making to use, because it makes things more fun and challenging. Who do I protect, or attack, or investigate? This role gives Smurf nothing to do and no information to share. There is also no reason to reveal it. If you are a vanilla town with protection, you would want the scum to attack you. I also don’t buy the unknown percentage chance of working part. Every other role has cut and dry powers that either work or don’t work. No one else has unknowns nor even percentage chances of effectiveness.
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Post by Hawkmod on Jul 10, 2008 13:58:20 GMT -5
Rysto
While I disagree with Smurf saying only one thing has been unexplained, we haven’t figured out what was up with the possessed townies early or what happened to the scum kill on night 4, I do believe that any horseman will be very powerful, and unlikely to be able to hide said power this long. I also think a Vig nicely balanced the other Horseman’s role. However, there is more to my case against Rysto.
Backups are generally reserved for roles that are imperative not to lose. While a town Vig is nice, it isn’t a role the town couldn’t live without. I can’t see a mod going out of his way to make sure we have access to a Vig.
Rysto admonished the town for not taking out Misterblockey, but then takes out Roosh instead. I believe this is due to the fact that like Misterblockey his powers won’t work on another horseman.
Those aren’t the main reason though. The biggest reason is Rysto is a more careful town player than this. In Batman, Rysto left breadcrumbs dictating his role early in the game. Here, where he claims to have had extra knowledge early, where he claims to have a power role that needed to be activated, he left nary a clue.
As for Kat’s contention about nights one and two, there are numerous possible explanations, the simplest being Rysto lied when saying his killing is mandatory.
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Post by Hawkmod on Jul 10, 2008 14:13:34 GMT -5
Mhaye:
Reading through I got a town vibe, but nothing I would put any confidence in. It doesn't really matter though. I need to trust two people and I'm not trusting Rysto or Smurf. So I'm going to do what I can to make Kat and Mhaye win, and hope they are both on my side.
Finally, we have the question of whether to vote for a PFK or scum. This is actually the easy part assuming there is 1 of each. If I vote for scum, than the PFK could win before tomorrow starts depending on win condition. If I vote for the PFK, the scum can't win before tomorrow. Of course, Mhaye could be a 2nd scum, and that would cause the scum to win instantly, but in that case we were probably doomed anyway.
Vote Rysto
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Post by Rysto on Jul 10, 2008 14:26:53 GMT -5
Rysto admonished the town for not taking out Misterblockey, but then takes out Roosh instead. I explained this in my claim. If I target a horseman, my kill doesn't go through and I stand a 50% chance of dying. I did not breadcrumb my role in Batman. I was a Cop, and per standard procedure breadcrumbed my results. Now, I did slip several times, and I pointed to those slips in my claim as further proof of my claim, but in general I would never breadcrumb my Role, only Cop results. As it happens, I did hint that there are non-Demon scum in this game a couple of times, but I tried to be way more subtle than I was in Batman where I pretty much outed myself Day 1, only no one was paying any attention. It is of very little benefit to an SK to not kill. SKs want a short game. Now you could postulate that an SK might withhold their kills until a Vig died and then start killing, hoping to make a backup-Vig claim. But that's extraordinarily dangerous, because there's no telling if there's a Vig, or when that Vig will die.
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Post by Hawkmod on Jul 10, 2008 14:31:33 GMT -5
[quote author=rysto board=stuff thread=374 post=26326 time=1215718013I explained this in my claim. If I target a horseman, my kill doesn't go through and I stand a 50% chance of dying.[/quote] Sorry, I missed that. Still, I think that the restriction makes more sense as a fellow Horseman.
What made you think people would pay more attention this game?
I don't think that you are necessarily a SK. Just a horseman with a killing power.
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Post by Rysto on Jul 10, 2008 14:39:18 GMT -5
Really? Because if I'm PFK, that means that targeting a Horseman means a 50% chance of losing, whereas for a Townie, it's not good for my Side but it isn't an instant-loss for me.
Better safe than sorry. I must note that the Demons apparently picked up on KidV's slips and killed him Night One. My slips in Batman were missed because there was lots of noise for them to hide in, IMO.
I don't understand the distinction you're making here. What's the difference between an SK and a PFK with a night-kill?
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Post by Merestil Haye on Jul 10, 2008 14:44:08 GMT -5
Caught between two stools. I pondered what to do in the case of a single remaining Demon and a PFK earlier Today. I agree, if you believe that there is one Demon and Rysto is PFK, that dealing with Rysto Today is the right procedure to avoid having the game snatched from the Survivors grasp. If there are two Demons, we need to lynch a Demon, irrespective of what you think Rysto's alignment is. My vote is on Smurf at the moment, but I could be persuaded to change it. However, I would note that Misterblockey never claimed that he would have his role backfire; just that it wouldn't work if he targeted a Horseman. We still have four hours.
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Post by Hawkmod on Jul 10, 2008 14:54:23 GMT -5
Really? Because if I'm PFK, that means that targeting a Horseman means a 50% chance of losing, whereas for a Townie, it's not good for my Side but it isn't an instant-loss for me. Maybe that is why you didn't kill the first couple of nights. Afraid to hit a horseman? That your win condition might not be to just exist at the end.
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Post by Hawkmod on Jul 10, 2008 14:59:09 GMT -5
Caught between two stools. I pondered what to do in the case of a single remaining Demon and a PFK earlier Today. I agree, if you believe that there is one Demon and Rysto is PFK, that dealing with Rysto Today is the right procedure to avoid having the game snatched from the Survivors grasp. If there are two Demons, we need to lynch a Demon, irrespective of what you think Rysto's alignment is. My vote is on Smurf at the moment, but I could be persuaded to change it. However, I would note that Misterblockey never claimed that he would have his role backfire; just that it wouldn't work if he targeted a Horseman. We still have four hours. If you are town, then I find it highly unlikely there are more than two other evil entities out there. I'm not and I don't think you have to doubt my mason claim. In order for Kat to be scum, she would have had to take out a new scum day one before conversing with him. In order for her to be a PFK the scum would have to had targeted Hal day one. I find both of those possibilities highly unlikely. I think there may be 3 evil entities left but if there are, you are one of them.
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Post by storyteller0910 on Jul 10, 2008 15:10:23 GMT -5
Caught between two stools. <a ghostly voice snickers, because potty jokes are funny, to the dead>
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Post by Merestil Haye on Jul 10, 2008 15:24:49 GMT -5
If you are town, then I find it highly unlikely there are more than two other evil entities out there. I'm not and I don't think you have to doubt my mason claim. In order for Kat to be scum, she would have had to take out a new scum day one before conversing with him. In order for her to be a PFK the scum would have to had targeted Hal day one. I find both of those possibilities highly unlikely. I think there may be 3 evil entities left but if there are, you are one of them. If there were three Evil Entities (aka Corporeal Demons) left the game would be over now, and we wouldn't be having this debate. It's still possible to squeeze in two EEs and a PFK; if we lynch the PFK the game is over on the spot so we have to lynch a Demon. Since, in this scenario, Rysto is the PFK, we shouldn't lynch him. If there is one PFK and one Demon, then we have to lynch the PFK first to avoid having the victory go to the PFK. If there are no PFKs we need to lynch a Demon, and SSmurf is the leading candidate for that role; you, Rysto and I seem to agree on that. At this stage, I've accepted your mason claim.
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Post by Hawkmod on Jul 10, 2008 15:38:21 GMT -5
Mhaye,
When I say evil entities, I was including horsemen. You accept my claim, then you must think Kat could be a horseman or demon. So you think she either went after Hockeyguy without discussing it first or that the scum wanted to lynch Hal night one? Which of these two (or both) do you think is possible, and why?
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Post by Merestil Haye on Jul 10, 2008 15:51:55 GMT -5
Mhaye, When I say evil entities, I was including horsemen. You accept my claim, then you must think Kat could be a horseman or demon. So you think she either went after Hockeyguy without discussing it first or that the scum wanted to lynch Hal night one? Which of these two (or both) do you think is possible, and why? Your usage of the term is noted. Pardon me if I don't follow. I have not rejected the possibility that Kat could be a Demon. In fact, I consider that if there are two Demons, they are SSmurf and Kat. She was a Mafiate in M2 on the Dope, where Storyteller relentlessly bussed not one but two of his fellows. She's seen how effective a tactic it is at gaining Town trust. She might have decided to go for it and explain to Hockeyguy afterwards, calcuating that the fact Hockeyguy was a first-time player might cause us to think just the way you are thinking. It's just occurred to me... A better argument against Kat being a Demon is that, on Night 1, this meant they were targeting one of their own - at a time when they had no reason to think a role redirector was in the game. So Kat probably isn't a Demon. That leaves just Rysto and SSmurf as the candidates for any EE and PFK roles. I'll be back in a while. Give me 30 monmutes or so to finish up something else.
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Post by Rysto on Jul 10, 2008 16:58:35 GMT -5
According to blockey, his power could not affect other Horsemen. However, Night 3 his one-shot power redirected my attack to tdpats, and Night 5 he redirected my attack from Roosh to NAF, If I were horseman, my attacks should have gone through and hit their original targets.
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Post by Merestil Haye on Jul 10, 2008 17:20:03 GMT -5
According to blockey, his power could not affect other Horsemen. However, Night 3 his one-shot power redirected my attack to tdpats, and Night 5 he redirected my attack from Roosh to NAF, If I were horseman, my attacks should have gone through and hit their original targets. Which would imply you're not a Horseman. Either that, MisterB was telling an untruth about it, or Atarus slipped. Twice. If you are not PFK, then my vote is in the right place, even if you are a Demon - which I doubt.
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Post by Hawkmod on Jul 10, 2008 17:31:59 GMT -5
According to blockey, his power could not affect other Horsemen. However, Night 3 his one-shot power redirected my attack to tdpats, and Night 5 he redirected my attack from Roosh to NAF, If I were horseman, my attacks should have gone through and hit their original targets. I thought he just couldn't use his power on horsemen. Do you have the wording he used? Also, do you think there is still a PFK left, and if so, who do you think it is?
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Post by Gir! on Jul 10, 2008 18:09:00 GMT -5
If MrB was telling the truth, there is at least one other Horseman (or the Mod is a Gastard):
Day Four, June 19, 8:26 am:
And his exact wording in regards to the effect of his power on Horseman (working backwards): Day Six, June 30, 11:03 am:
Day Five, June 24, 2:28 pm:
Posts implying the no-Horseman part of the power: Day Five, June 24, 2:03 pm
Day Five, June 23, 10:09 am:
There might be some earlier posts about this, but I stopped at the post in Day Four where MrB made his War claim.
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Post by Gir! on Jul 10, 2008 18:18:19 GMT -5
I see it as either a 3/1/1 or a 2/2/1 scenario. (survivor/demon/horseman) Scenario 3/1/1 - -If we lynch the demon, the horseman wins. Game Over -If we lynch the horseman it comes down to three handed mafia. - if we mislynch and lynch a townie, the outcome depends upon who the horseman and demon targets for nightkills. -If they kill each other - 2/0/0 great town wins, - if the Horseman gets the demon, 2/0/1 the horseman wins - if the demon gets the horseman 1/1/0 the demon wins Scenario 2/2/1 - We're in big trouble, Game Over - no matter who we lynch, it is a loss for the town. If we're in scenario two, there's no point, everything is futile now. I instead choose to believe we still have a shot at winning this game, so I am going to move forward on the basis that if we lynch the horseman toDay we take this game to a three handed game toMorrow. And I think it's fairly apparent that the Horseman is Rysto. Rereading Today, if this is accurate, and MrB is telling the truth, if we're at 3/1/1, we need to lynch the Horseman Today, right? This would be true even if Smurf is the Demon, since he loses if he's lynched and gets a shot at winning Tomorrow if the Horseman is lynched. Someone tell me I'm understanding this right?
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Post by Merestil Haye on Jul 10, 2008 18:23:52 GMT -5
Kat, there's a problem with at least one of those statements. And his exact wording in regards to the effect of his power on Horseman (working backwards): Day Six, June 30, 11:03 am: And Day Five, June 24, 2:28 pm: Couple these with the fact that Rysto claimed he actually targeted Roosh on Night Five: D6.04 - either MrB was falsely informed that his power was ineffective on Horsemen, MrB lied, Rysto lied, or Rysto isn't actually a Horseman.
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Post by Hawkmod on Jul 10, 2008 18:24:55 GMT -5
I see it as either a 3/1/1 or a 2/2/1 scenario. (survivor/demon/horseman) Scenario 3/1/1 - -If we lynch the demon, the horseman wins. Game Over -If we lynch the horseman it comes down to three handed mafia. - if we mislynch and lynch a townie, the outcome depends upon who the horseman and demon targets for nightkills. -If they kill each other - 2/0/0 great town wins, - if the Horseman gets the demon, 2/0/1 the horseman wins - if the demon gets the horseman 1/1/0 the demon wins Scenario 2/2/1 - We're in big trouble, Game Over - no matter who we lynch, it is a loss for the town. If we're in scenario two, there's no point, everything is futile now. I instead choose to believe we still have a shot at winning this game, so I am going to move forward on the basis that if we lynch the horseman toDay we take this game to a three handed game toMorrow. And I think it's fairly apparent that the Horseman is Rysto. Rereading Today, if this is accurate, and MrB is telling the truth, if we're at 3/1/1, we need to lynch the Horseman Today, right? This would be true even if Smurf is the Demon, since he loses if he's lynched and gets a shot at winning Tomorrow if the Horseman is lynched. Someone tell me I'm understanding this right? We don't necessarily lose if we don't lynch the horseman, as we don't know the horseman's win condition. However, provided the 3-1-1 scenario, we know we don't lost if we do lynch the horseman, so that is certainly the preferred option. Also, there are scenarios in which there are only 2 town members left and we still win, but those require things to happen outside town's control.
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Post by Rysto on Jul 10, 2008 18:25:49 GMT -5
I misremembered. Here's what he said on the subject:So I guess that doesn't definitively clear me, although he seemed pretty sure that he could not redirect a Horseman's powers. As to the question of PFKs: my PM had no information on the number of Horsemen, other than the fact that they exist in this game. It's possible that atarus felt that the Town needed to know that there was a PFK bus driver running around. We would have had a difficult time realising that there was a PFK out there even if we noticed that there was a redirector, and knowing that there was at least one PFK in this game has really changed our lynch strategy. So I'm not going to outright rule it out. However, there are some good arguments for their being more than one. blockey sure seemed to be sure that there were other Horsemen in the game. The only reason that I could possibly come up with for him lying about it is if he wanted to get back at me for exposing him by getting me lynched. It's also possible that blockey was told that his power wouldn't work on a Horsemen, etc, as a Cecilvania-style red herring. If there is a PFK out there, I'm certain that it's not you, hawkeyeop. bufftabby breadcrumbed you as a Psychic and nobody has counter-claimed. It would take a very weird turn of events for you to be a PFK. The argument against Kat being a PFK is that blockey claimed that his power worked on her Night One. He could have lied about this. If blockey and Kat were Horsemen working together, for example, he'd have a great motivation to try and confirm her as Town. But if this were the case, the Demons would know that it was a lie, and I'd expect them to either pursue Kat vigorously or kill her to prevent a "confirmed Town" Horseman from stealing the win from them. blockey could also have lied about his power not working on Horsemen. However, he was quite clear that he never tried to use his power against me because he was sure that I was a Horseman. If his power worked on Horsemen, why wouldn't he try and redirect an attack at me instead of NAF, for instance? Because of all this, I don't think that Kat could be a Horseman. Smurf is a possibility, but I think that his actions are more in line with a Demon than a Horseman. So, by the process of elimination, if there's a Horseman out there, it must be MHaye. I'm really not comfortable with this kind of reasoning, though. I'd be really hesitant to string up someone that I have no evidence against, when I'm so certain that Smurf is anti-Town.
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Post by Hawkmod on Jul 10, 2008 18:26:48 GMT -5
Couple these with the fact that Rysto claimed he actually targeted Roosh on Night Five: D6.04 - either MrB was falsely informed that his power was ineffective on Horsemen, MrB lied, Rysto lied, or Rysto isn't actually a Horseman. MrB said he wasn't sure what would happen if a Horseman targeted who he was switching. He assumed they wouldn't be affected, but he could of assumed wrong.
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Post by Gir! on Jul 10, 2008 18:45:30 GMT -5
Except that MrB, in a later post than the one you quoted said:
Let's go over the possibilities:
(1) Gastard Mod lied to MrB: No way to ascertain, unless they answer this question in the next 20 minutes (like that's gonna happen): Mods, did you lie to MrB?
(2a) MrB lied about who he targeted: Why? He posted the "Roosh in particular, you're welcome." before Rysto revealed he targeted Roosh. (2b) MrB lied about Horsemen being immune: Rysto could have been all over him as a liar right then and there. Big risk.
(3) Rysto lied about having targeted Roosh and not NAF. He had seen that MrB had previously speculated about Horsemen possibly being immune to War's power, saw MrB's note to Roosh and jumped all over it, to "prove" he wasn't immune?
(4) Rysto's not a Horseman: that means mhaye is.
(5) MrB and Rysto were both Horseman, but could communicate, have a shared win condition and set up an elaborate scheme to get one of them to endgame. Convoluted conspiracy theory, but it's possible.
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Post by Hawkmod on Jul 10, 2008 18:50:16 GMT -5
I didn't really consider the possibility of the horseman working together. Hmm. I'm leaning towards switching to Mhaye now. Nine more minutes
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Post by Rysto on Jul 10, 2008 18:51:33 GMT -5
(5) MrB and Rysto were both Horseman, but could communicate, have a shared win condition and set up an elaborate scheme to get one of them to endgame. Convoluted conspiracy theory, but it's possible. There is no reason for me to out blockey if we're working together, especially if we're in a group of two. That's just horribly counter-productive.
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Post by Gir! on Jul 10, 2008 18:54:02 GMT -5
Did we ever come up with a plausible theory as to why there was no 2nd kill Night Five? It certainly wasn't because the Demons targeted Roosh, too.
Ah, to heck with it. Vote Rysto.
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Post by Gir! on Jul 10, 2008 18:57:08 GMT -5
I'm voting for whoever hawkeye does.
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Post by Hawkmod on Jul 10, 2008 18:57:33 GMT -5
i thought he couldn't be a Pfk?
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Post by Rysto on Jul 10, 2008 18:58:30 GMT -5
I'm voting for whoever hawkeye does. You're also voting for who Smurf is voting for.
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