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Day 1
Jan 26, 2009 16:24:49 GMT -5
Post by sachertorte on Jan 26, 2009 16:24:49 GMT -5
Not to mention that a townie removed from an unconfirmed pool by a detective is far better than a scum removed from an unconfirmed pool by the detective, and I can give you a quick "run the numbers" explanation on why this is if you need it. The quick non-mathematical explanation is that given an unconfirmed pool and a confirmed town pool, the goal is to get the confirmed town pool to exceed the unconfirmed pool. The unconfirmed pool gets smaller by LYNCHING and by INVESTIGATION. The 'problem' with the investigator investigating a scum is that that scum will have been investigated but still needs to be lynched. The double action is a waste of resources. * Caveat, this is of course only valid when we know that there is no godfather or a given godfather is already dead. As this is a closed game, we don't have this information.
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Day 1
Jan 26, 2009 16:30:20 GMT -5
Post by roxis on Jan 26, 2009 16:30:20 GMT -5
Ah, that makes a lot of sense now. Thanks.
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Day 1
Jan 26, 2009 17:35:24 GMT -5
Post by Trepa Mayfield on Jan 26, 2009 17:35:24 GMT -5
One other thing--if any of you have some burning insights that you can't share here...or you have a particularly devious plan for you particular power role...feel free to PM me or FCoD with your explanation; we'll post it on the spoiler board and everyone can admire your keen ability to shepherd/misguide the town.
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Day 1
Jan 26, 2009 17:54:16 GMT -5
Post by sinjin on Jan 26, 2009 17:54:16 GMT -5
Just to make sure I understand, you wrote this pede:
Our imposter and the SCUM imposter are the same person? And we (town) win if the imposter is either dead or "trophyfied" too, right? I am slightly paranoid after the last game.
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Merestil Haye
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Day 1
Jan 26, 2009 17:57:08 GMT -5
Post by Merestil Haye on Jan 26, 2009 17:57:08 GMT -5
Just to make sure I understand, you wrote this pede: Our imposter and the SCUM imposter are the same person? And we (town) win if the imposter is either dead or "trophyfied" too, right? I am slightly paranoid after the last game. Sinjin, I've been interpreting this as meaning there is one (and only one) imposter who is maliciously PFK - that is, neither SCUM nor Town - and can steal the win from both sides. Does anyone else share my feeling that this is a profoundly unusual Day 1?
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Day 1
Jan 26, 2009 17:59:15 GMT -5
Post by KidVermicious on Jan 26, 2009 17:59:15 GMT -5
I don't, yet. In what way is it unusual?
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Day 1
Jan 26, 2009 18:02:41 GMT -5
Post by Merestil Haye on Jan 26, 2009 18:02:41 GMT -5
I'm talking too much.
I don't normally crank out this many posts on Day 1 until we get close to the end of the Day.
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Day 1
Jan 26, 2009 18:09:57 GMT -5
Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 26, 2009 18:09:57 GMT -5
Not to mention that a townie removed from an unconfirmed pool by a detective is far better than a scum removed from an unconfirmed pool by the detective, and I can give you a quick "run the numbers" explanation on why this is if you need it. That would be great, actually. Before someone accuses me of it, I'm not playing up my inexperience, but every so often I run across terms or such I'm unfamiliar with. And, this would help a lot. :) Sachertorte gave the quick explanation, now for the hard numbers: Bob the Tomato is an exposed investigator. All that's left in the game are 2 scum, Bob, and some number of confirmed and unconfirmed vanillas. Bob has performed his last investigation, since scum will surely kill him the following Night, and has a result. His target was in a pool of unconfirmed. Say there were 3 unconfirmed remaining, the 2 scum and one town. This is how it goes down: Scenario 1: Bob investigated town that night. Game over at dusk toMorrow. Even though town has no idea how many scum are left, it's irrelevant. They lynch the two unconfirmeds. Scenario 2: Bob investigated scum that night. Scum lynched at Dusk. Bob dies. Town has 50% chance of mislynching unconfirmed town the next Day and 50% chance of ending game. Clearly the first scenario is better for town. Town has 100% chance of lynching scum both Days as opposed to only 50% chance in scenario 2. (The first Day was 100% chance of lynching scum regardless.) So let's increase the unconfirmed to 2 scum, 2 town: Scenario 1: Bob investigates town. This leaves a pool of 2 scum and 1 town to lynch. Town has a 33% chance of mislynching that Day. 1.A: Town lynches town first Day. Town will lynch scum 100% the next two Days. Net result: one mislynch with Day ending Dusk on the 3rd Day after last investigation. 1.B: Town lynches scum first Day. Town now has 50% mislynch chance: 1.B.1: Town lynches town second Day. Town will lynch scum 100% on the third Day. Net result one mislynch with Day ending Dusk on the 3rd Day following last investigation. (Same result as 1.A) 1.B.2: Town lynches scum second Day. Game over. Odds of game ending in two Days = odds of 1.B.2) = 2/3 * 1/2 = 1/3. Odds of game ending in three Days = odds of 1.B.1 + odds of 1.A = (2/3 * 1/2) + 1/3 = 2/3 And 2/3 + 1/3 = 1, so all scenarios are accounted for. Town has a 1/3 chance of no mislynch and ending game earlier. But town is guaranteed to end the game in 3 Days with a win no matter what, since the other two possibilities have the same result. Scenario 2: Bob found scum. Town has a 0% chance of mislynching the Day after Bob's investigation. So they hit scum, leaving 1 scum and 2 town in the unconfirmed pool. Town has a 2/3 chance of mislynching the second Day. Now we have the following: 2.A: Town lynches scum. Game over on second Day. 2.B: Town lynches town. Town now has 50% chance of mislynch the following Day: 2.B.1: Town lynches scum. Game over on third Day. 2.B.2: Town lynches town. Town now has 100% chance of nailing scum and ending the game on the fourth Day. So the odds: Odds of game ending in two Days = odds of 2.A = 1/3. Note that this is identical to the chance of ending it in two Days had Bob found town. However, the rest gets interesting. Odds of game ending in three Days = odds of 2.B.1 = 2/3 * 1/2 = 1/3. Odds of game ending in four Days = odds of 2.B.2 = 2/3 * 1/2 = 1/3. 1/3 + 1/3 + 1/3 = 1. So all probable game endings accounted for again. But note that while the best case scenario of ending in 2 Days is the same, the chance of ending within 3 Days is only 2/3 as high. And there is a chance of dragging the whole thing out one extra Day to four Days. And the longer the game goes, the more kills scum get. If we add another vanilla townie into the pool, things get even worse for town, but I leave that as an exercise for the reader as well as any other distributions the reader might be inclined to try out. The end result will be the best you can hope for by outing scum is to match the best-case scenario for confirming town. But you will always have a worse outcome available than you would had you only confirmed town. And this is with only having vanilla town/scum goons. Imagine when you have outstanding powers still floating around. And from a metagame standpoint, by confirming town, you increase the number of people whose motives can be trusted (even if their strategy is bad)--something that can't be measured in raw numbers, but is clearly a boon for town.
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Day 1
Jan 26, 2009 18:21:34 GMT -5
Post by peekercpa on Jan 26, 2009 18:21:34 GMT -5
I'm not quite sure what to make of this. As far as I'm aware, there are two examples of games where I had very low participation, and two examples where I put out analysis that picked up scum. Those two fields overlapped in the ongoing Evil Dead game, so I have to wonder if peeker isn't seeing a trend in this simply because there is a recent example. Either way, there was never a case where I lurked until prodded -- there was only lurking until I whatever outside influence was keeping me from the game wasn't there anymore. Couple of other things for the record... --I've completely effing lost by the color. That said, I'm not going to concern myself about either. I had fun in Firefly, and still haven't seen any of that either (although I now know River Tam is pretty damn cool). --I hope this whole "HAL Labs" thing doesn't cause any undue confusion. -- peeker, please don't think it any kind of OMGUS when I vote for you. I'll totally be because of the sheep joke. <Snipped> You are probably correct in that a lot of these games are starting to run together for me. Regarding the sheep jokes: anyone in particular or just cumulative? Oh well, mutton I can do about it now.
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Day 1
Jan 26, 2009 18:21:56 GMT -5
Post by sinjin on Jan 26, 2009 18:21:56 GMT -5
Hey, I resemble that analysis Hoopy.
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Day 1
Jan 26, 2009 18:29:36 GMT -5
Post by peekercpa on Jan 26, 2009 18:29:36 GMT -5
Mod question: Do unvotes have to be by vote or could you Unvote All and have it effectively eliminate your current vote record?
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Day 1
Jan 26, 2009 18:35:08 GMT -5
Post by KidVermicious on Jan 26, 2009 18:35:08 GMT -5
I'm talking too much. I don't normally crank out this many posts on Day 1 until we get close to the end of the Day.
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Day 1
Jan 26, 2009 18:41:09 GMT -5
Post by Trepa Mayfield on Jan 26, 2009 18:41:09 GMT -5
Mod question: Do unvotes have to be by vote or could youUnvote All and have it effectively eliminate your current vote record? I think you asked that question last time.
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Day 1
Jan 26, 2009 18:47:49 GMT -5
Post by roxis on Jan 26, 2009 18:47:49 GMT -5
Thanks for that, Hoopy. I'll admit, I lurked and read SMB mafia while it was still going on - I was still in the middle of my first game (MMM), and you were the first person I'd ever seen who tried to confirm town rather than out scum. It made sense, since it was obviously working for you, but I wasn't sure why it made sense. Now that I have some numbers in front of me, it's clear, so thank you.
It definitely changes my opinion on claiming somewhat too. Granted, I don't think it's wise to just reveal yourself as the doctor, since you'd pretty much be stuck self-protecting, but I'm not 100% against claiming either. I am, however, 100% against claiming vanilla town, since that raises the chances of scum NKing a power role, as they're more likely to go for another player at night (and this is, obviously, assuming that the vanilla claimer is just an ordinary player; not someone like AH, who gets NK'd just for being a gifted Mafia player).
ANYWAY, thanks again for taking the time to write that post. It was extremely helpful.
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Day 1
Jan 26, 2009 18:49:55 GMT -5
Post by roxis on Jan 26, 2009 18:49:55 GMT -5
Granted, I don't think it's wise to just reveal yourself as the doctor, Didn't get a full thought out. Oops. By this, I mean if someone were to just post after me, telling everyone they were the doc. Not smart.
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Trepa Mayfield
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Day 1
Jan 26, 2009 18:55:10 GMT -5
Post by Trepa Mayfield on Jan 26, 2009 18:55:10 GMT -5
Mod question: Do unvotes have to be by vote or could youUnvote All and have it effectively eliminate your current vote record? I think you asked that question last time. Oh, and the answer is, "Yes, that works.".
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Day 1
Jan 26, 2009 19:10:10 GMT -5
Post by peekercpa on Jan 26, 2009 19:10:10 GMT -5
I am, however, 100% against claiming vanilla town, since that raises the chances of scum NKing a power role, as they're more likely to go for another player at night (and this is, obviously, assuming that the vanilla claimer is just an ordinary player; not someone like AH, who gets NK'd just for being a gifted Mafia player). ANYWAY, thanks again for taking the time to write that post. It was extremely helpful. Ahh, but WIFOM. If a niller claim allows you to escape the noose and you are a power role then the scummers go hunting where you are not. I think that claiming, whatever, is an individual choice based on the particular sitation at the time. I am unsure that there are hard and fast rules that are universal. Meh, my two cents. And I want to echo what sach said, name claims are nigh on useless. The Mods do not necessarily have names align with canon.
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Day 1
Jan 26, 2009 19:13:23 GMT -5
Post by special on Jan 26, 2009 19:13:23 GMT -5
Well, you either have a claim made by scum, who will be lying through their teeth, a power role is outed, or some idiot claims vanilla. But I will say that anyone who claims vanilla deserves a kick in the pants. oh, I think I love you. Though sachertorte looks delicious as would be expected.
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Day 1
Jan 26, 2009 19:15:37 GMT -5
Post by Gir! on Jan 26, 2009 19:15:37 GMT -5
True, peeker, but also keep in mind that if you claim Vanilla, and there's a Watcher or a Tracker or similar role who catches you performing a Night action, you may fall afoul of people with a "Lynch All Liars" mindset.
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Day 1
Jan 26, 2009 19:32:25 GMT -5
Post by KidVermicious on Jan 26, 2009 19:32:25 GMT -5
I can't think of a single situation where a vanilla claim would convince me to change my vote.
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Day 1
Jan 26, 2009 19:34:13 GMT -5
Post by Pollux Oil on Jan 26, 2009 19:34:13 GMT -5
It's not that I don't like him. It's just that the fandom in general hated, hated, hated him. (I don't know why. Personally, my most hated character was Pichu. Obnoxious little thing.) Pichu sucks. And one of my friends was actually good with the little squeaker. It's humiliating to be beat by that thing. (paraphrased) It's been awhile since my eyes have glazed over from a post with lots of math. I think I shall dub you MathBlaster V.2.0. (Mathy Frood just doesn't have as nice a ring to it.) And I've just realized half the people playing this game might not get that joke. Oh well, I'm gonna post it anyway. ----- I am, however, 100% against claiming vanilla town, since that raises the chances of scum NKing a power role, as they're more likely to go for another player at night (and this is, obviously, assuming that the vanilla claimer is just an ordinary player; not someone like AH, who gets NK'd just for being a gifted Mafia player). So you're against claiming vanilla even if said person is on the chopping block? Or are you just talking about unprovoked vanilla claims?
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Day 1
Jan 26, 2009 19:40:42 GMT -5
Post by roxis on Jan 26, 2009 19:40:42 GMT -5
Ahh, but WIFOM. If a niller claim allows you to escape the noose and you are a power role then the scummers go hunting where you are not. ...WIFOM? Well, that's true, but vanilla town is also the easiest claim for scum to make. No one's going to blurt out "but wait, I'm vanilla too!!" and try to counterclaim. Plus, if a vanilla is really that close to being lynched, a vanilla claim is likely not going to change the minds of the voters. As for power roles claiming vanilla, it could help you avoid nightkills, but you can still be lynched. In MMM, Idle claimed vanilla town. People didn't really pay attention to him. Then, he began to look scummy, and everyone started to pile votes on him. All of a sudden, he claims to be the doctor. Well, he'd already claimed vanilla, so even people who thought he might be town started to vote for him because he was either lying then, or lying now. He was scum. Had he been a power though, the result would have been the same. Changing claims isn't a good idea, because it's proof that you've lied at one point in time, and at least in that game, town didn't like that. Long story short: if you claim vanilla and are really a power, you could be labelled a liar when you try to reveal any potential information you might have. Or, when you're on the block, if you suddenly claim a power, you'll be labelled a liar. But these are just my opinions. It's okay if you have different ones. Town's going to disagree, it's a fact, and it's perfectly alright.
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Day 1
Jan 26, 2009 19:41:03 GMT -5
Post by Holy Moley! on Jan 26, 2009 19:41:03 GMT -5
I am, however, 100% against claiming vanilla town, since that raises the chances of scum NKing a power role, as they're more likely to go for another player at night (and this is, obviously, assuming that the vanilla claimer is just an ordinary player; not someone like AH, who gets NK'd just for being a gifted Mafia player). Actually even that one's dabatable, but I think it's a safe assumption in this game. In the "Mario" game I made an early vanilla claim and, I think it's safe to say, did an epically bad job of defending it (even though it was true). I crunched the numbers in "Mario" and posted them to Idle after I left the game, but trust me when I say that the potential presence of third-party elements makes a BIG change to the maths. You could have scenarios like a third-party serial-killer role eliminating a scum element, or the reverse, for example. If you look at how a (widely accepted) vanilla town claim affects those kinds of scenarios, things get a lot more complicated. There are specific circumstances where a single early vanilla claim is a good thing - chiefly where there's a "mook factor" (where the characters are split up into recognisably more and less important factions - goombas vs Marios for example) and where there are an unknown number of malicious PFKs. Neither of which really applies here, of course. I agree that an early vanilla claim in this case would be very bad for the town as a whole. Also, as I said last game, if you get a mass vanilla claim, it's undisputedly bad for all kinds of reasons - outing PRs, giving the scum an easy place to hide, etc. But that one's so obvious that it barely deserves comment. None of this is particularly relevant to this game since the circumstances are so different; but after my undignified exit from "Mario", I sent a pretty huge PM to Idle where I'd done some of the maths. As far as I know that'll be posted on the boards of the last game here, if you're interested.
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Day 1
Jan 26, 2009 19:46:19 GMT -5
Post by roxis on Jan 26, 2009 19:46:19 GMT -5
It's been awhile since my eyes have glazed over from a post with lots of math. I think I shall dub you MathBlaster V.2.0. (Mathy Frood just doesn't have as nice a ring to it.) And I've just realized half the people playing this game might not get that joke. Oh well, I'm gonna post it anyway. ._. I played one of those Jumpstart games when I was a wee one, and one of the mini games was called Math Blaster. That will probably make my cool points fall. ----- I am, however, 100% against claiming vanilla town, since that raises the chances of scum NKing a power role, as they're more likely to go for another player at night (and this is, obviously, assuming that the vanilla claimer is just an ordinary player; not someone like AH, who gets NK'd just for being a gifted Mafia player). So you're against claiming vanilla even if said person is on the chopping block? Or are you just talking about unprovoked vanilla claims? Unprovoked. Though, like KidV said, if someone's acting scummy enough to be on the chopping block, and they claim vanilla, they'll likely not change anyone's mind. If someone on the chopping block wants to claim vanilla though, they're more than welcome to.
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Day 1
Jan 26, 2009 19:46:46 GMT -5
Post by special on Jan 26, 2009 19:46:46 GMT -5
Ahh, but WIFOM. If a niller claim allows you to escape the noose and you are a power role then the scummers go hunting where you are not. ...WIFOM? Well, that's true, but vanilla town is also the easiest claim for scum to make. No one's going to blurt out "but wait, I'm vanilla too!!" and try to counterclaim. Plus, if a vanilla is really that close to being lynched, a vanilla claim is likely not going to change the minds of the voters. As for power roles claiming vanilla, it could help you avoid nightkills, but you can still be lynched. In MMM, Idle claimed vanilla town. People didn't really pay attention to him. Then, he began to look scummy, and everyone started to pile votes on him. All of a sudden, he claims to be the doctor. Well, he'd already claimed vanilla, so even people who thought he might be town started to vote for him because he was either lying then, or lying now. He was scum. Had he been a power though, the result would have been the same. Changing claims isn't a good idea, because it's proof that you've lied at one point in time, and at least in that game, town didn't like that. Long story short: if you claim vanilla and are really a power, you could be labelled a liar when you try to reveal any potential information you might have. Or, when you're on the block, if you suddenly claim a power, you'll be labelled a liar. But these are just my opinions. It's okay if you have different ones. Town's going to disagree, it's a fact, and it's perfectly alright. *looks around for santo What about claiming Mason when you're a Scotsman investigator? That is, an investigator who dies and comes back as a doctor? Don't laugh. It's true. Not only the role, but also the fact that he claimed Mason and was promptly lynched. It seems his gambit is that the masons would understand his gambit, and allow him to hide in the mason pool (a large 4 person pool in a game with about 20 players). It failed. The masons led the lynch against him. Though, in hindsight, and with more experience now, I'd have to admit, I'd think twice about someone claiming Mason when I was one of 4 masons alive. I'd also think twice about Scotsman investigator/doctors
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Day 1
Jan 26, 2009 19:50:10 GMT -5
Post by KidVermicious on Jan 26, 2009 19:50:10 GMT -5
WIFOM - "wine in front of me"... shorthand for a presented decision with absolutely no way to differentiate between the right and wrong choices.
Moley, I'd like to see your math, because I disagree. I suspect that you're still hung up on the assumption that the rest of the players will believe your claim.
I won't. I will never ever ever take a vanilla claim at face value, especially if it's unprovoked.
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Day 1
Jan 26, 2009 19:51:06 GMT -5
Post by Holy Moley! on Jan 26, 2009 19:51:06 GMT -5
LOL, we've got a small debate going on. Oh well, guess it gets people talking. Special Ed - you're against early vanilla claims? I'm SHOCKED! On the PFK point - it belatedly occurs to me, about three seconds after posting my incorrect analysis as usual, that the fact that we know there's one PFK who can "interfere with" the win condition doesn't preclude there being other "malicious" PFKs about. So correct that one, not that it particularly matters, I still think an early bout of vanilla claimers would be a bad thing in this game.
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Day 1
Jan 26, 2009 19:53:06 GMT -5
Post by Holy Moley! on Jan 26, 2009 19:53:06 GMT -5
WIFOM - "wine in front of me"... shorthand for a presented decision with absolutely no way to differentiate between the right and wrong choices. Moley, I'd like to see your math, because I disagree. I suspect that you're still hung up on the assumption that the rest of the players will believe your claim. I won't. I will never ever ever take a vanilla claim at face value, especially if it's unprovoked. As I said, it should be on the Mario game board somewhere. And yes, I do take into consideration the possibility (well, damn near certainty in my case!) that the vanilla claim wouldn't be believed by everyone. In the "Mario" game though, there was the extra element of the "mook factor". That doesn't exist here. There aren't any mooks about - it's all characters from the Super Smash Brothers' game, and from what I've read they're fairly evenly balanced.
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Day 1
Jan 26, 2009 20:01:40 GMT -5
Post by brokentree on Jan 26, 2009 20:01:40 GMT -5
I believe that if you are an investigator or have any other important role and you are close to being lynched...claim. I like this 3 vote system ...it lets others know where your mind is, should you get lynched.
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Day 1
Jan 26, 2009 20:01:41 GMT -5
Post by tdpatriots12 on Jan 26, 2009 20:01:41 GMT -5
While we're talking about vanilla claims...
I can only speak from my limited experience, but in Last Bastion, my second game, I was vanilla town and drew suspicion early for voting patterns and justification. Eventually I claimed truthfully that I was vanilla town. In hindsight I have the following problems with it:
* Sure, it might have been the truth, but the only time anyone should really be trusted is after they are dead and thus confirmed by the moderator. So let's say the town took a chance and bought my claim. They might have been going against their instincts to trust no-one and essentially just guessed, "I think pats is tellin' the truth." Why is that such a problem with a vanilla claim? Because what did the town have to lose by lynching me to find out? Just, at worst, a vanilla townie. It also means I could be kept in the town's back pocket to lynch later. Scum love a drawn-out mislynch campaign and that's exactly what I ended up helping provide, lingering for a couple days before getting NK'd by a one-time use game mechanic.
* It was selfish. The town still had the same question, to lynch or not to lynch (or in this example, use a potentially valuable one-shot ability on me). The scum however, weren't going to bother nightkilling a vanilla town, unless they expect some serious WIFOM and a town power role going down without a claim to that effect. So my claim of vanilla town put no pressure on the scum to do anything about me. So it's selfish because all it served to do was give the town pause when deciding whether or not to get rid of me. My motivation at the was simply to keep playing, and that was wrong of me.
* So in hindsight in that particular game, I probably should have false claimed a power role. The town might lynch me later under 'lynch all liars' like Kat! mentioned earlier in this thread, but at least it would have put the pressure on the scum to test the veracity of my claim. It would have been, I think, a better team play, because it had the potential to waste a scum night action. The downside is it could result in an actual power role exposing themselves to counterclaim, thinking they had a scum cornered.
Granted, it's just one example, but I think it shows the potential problems with a vanilla claim pretty well.
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