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Post by Pleonast on Sept 25, 2009 14:14:29 GMT -5
Another Day commences...
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Natlaw
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Post by Natlaw on Sept 25, 2009 14:19:55 GMT -5
ZOMG, does that make FlyingCow the last Wolf or Vampire or is it just a freak coincidence?
The Wolves could have been completely eradicated by now, which would be bad for us.
Updated stats:
21. Boozy Squid - Lynched Day One - Cabal - Cabalist 01. storyteller - Killed Night One - Undead - Necromancer 03. Special Ed - Killed Night One - Wolf - Alpha Wolf 18. Meeko - Killed Night One - Wolf - Omega Wolf 17. Mister Blockey - Lynched Day Two - Undead 09. CatInASuit - Town - Killed Night Two 13. paulwhois - Wolf - Killed Night Two 23. peekercpa - Town - Killed Night Two 25. bufftabby - Wolf - Killed Night Two - either special ed or Parzival targeted her N1 14. Parzival - Lynched Day Three - very likely Wolf - claimed Magican, lied about ed targeting bufftabby 04. Idle Thoughts - Killed Night Three -Flying Cow was redirect onto him Night Three 12. julie - Killed Night Three
05. NAF - Cabal - Cabalist 16. Natlaw - Cabal - Cabalist 24. MHaye - Cabal - Cabalist
15. pedescribe - Town? - Claims Witch or Seer, investigated Blockey as Undead - investigated Town N2 while blocked, but didn't say who (another Witch alive to tell) 19. hockeyguy - Town? - Claims Magician (the only one), thinks Parzival Cabal
02. Sister Coyote 06. Flying Cow - possible last Wolf or Vampire, redirected to Idle Thoughts Night Three 07. Cookies - blocked Night Three 08. Kat 10. Nanook 11. BillMc 20. PrecambrianMollusc 22. Death by Irony
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Natlaw
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Post by Natlaw on Sept 25, 2009 14:35:39 GMT -5
Well pedescribe, you're reasoning is completely false - we need the killers to kill the Witches, not waste our block of you nasty Witches.
Other scenarios I rushed past: -FlyingCow could be the vigilante as well, but not as likely because his post aren't really helpful imo. -We could have blocked killer Cookies since there were only two deaths. But I think it's possible as well the vigilante voluntarily decided not to kill.
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Natlaw
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Post by Natlaw on Sept 25, 2009 14:36:56 GMT -5
And I made a slip >< Really need to start thinking about that claim
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Merestil Haye
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Post by Merestil Haye on Sept 25, 2009 14:38:47 GMT -5
Firstly, Pedescribe is lying again.
Secondly, we're in trouble. I suspect that there are no more than two or three players left between Wolf and Undead. I suspected we started with six Werewolves and three Undead. Four Wolves and two Undead are toast, and Parzival is likely another - I suspect Vampire. It makes no sense for a Wolf to frame another Wolf. It's quite possible that FCoD is the last. If they all die, and we haven't disposed of two Witches, we lose. Our priority Today must be to identify candidates for the other two Witches. (One might well be dead. We can always hope.)
Thirdly, I find myself hoping against hoe that FCoD was the Vig, and not a Wolf or Vampire. One of us should redirect him again Tonight.
And I have to say poor Julie. Nightkilled here and she dropped a hammer on herself on another game because she's an outed anti-Town player.
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Post by Merestil Haye on Sept 25, 2009 14:48:38 GMT -5
Get working on that claim, Natlaw.
If it doesn't work you can always confess to Wolfdom and admit that Parzival was a Wolf (which is what you were thinking, right?). That'll draw a lynch that the Town needs to be spending on the last killer(s).
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Natlaw
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Post by Natlaw on Sept 25, 2009 14:50:08 GMT -5
If I get pressed (and I guess I will be), I'm going to claim to be the last Wolf and offer my services as vigilante-on-a-leash. Might even make it true with redirect Cow. And hope Parzival isn't a Wolf and one of Idle or julie is .
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Natlaw
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Post by Natlaw on Sept 25, 2009 14:52:16 GMT -5
If FlyingCow being the vigilante is not good - he can choose to not kill and our redirect next Night would be wasted.
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Merestil Haye
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Post by Merestil Haye on Sept 25, 2009 14:53:55 GMT -5
Pedescribe claims Idle was Town. Unlikely he'd risk lying about results.
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Post by Merestil Haye on Sept 25, 2009 14:55:53 GMT -5
If FlyingCow being the vigilante is not good - he can choose to not kill and our redirect next Night would be wasted. He's got no reason to refrain, has he?
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Natlaw
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Post by Natlaw on Sept 25, 2009 15:02:10 GMT -5
Wolf decisions: -Night One special ed tried to kill CatInASuit but failed, Parzival used this to tried to claim (if Parzival turns up not-Wolf, I'm screwed Tomorrow for sure) -Night Two we killed CatInASuit correctly assuming pedescribe (thus not Cat) would be protected -Night Three we killed Idle Thoughts (unless redirected to the same target, no one can counter claimed this with a 'no I killed Idle').
I'll go look at the previous game again for a good secret power. It's gonna be either I cannot cast it alone or it was specific to a dead Wolf or not to threatening to town so they don't lynch me just in case I would use it.
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Natlaw
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Post by Natlaw on Sept 25, 2009 15:04:38 GMT -5
Possible threat is the actual Wolf counter claiming, but since he's now just a PFK I don't think he will (unless up for lynch).
Detective can counter claim the N2/3 kills, so that why I don't name a specific killer there. Still screwed if he finds Cow as Idle's killer, but he cannot report that Today.
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Natlaw
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Post by Natlaw on Sept 25, 2009 15:07:07 GMT -5
If FlyingCow being the vigilante is not good - he can choose to not kill and our redirect next Night would be wasted. He's got no reason to refrain, has he? He should know he was redirected - if that happened to me as town vigilante and not compulsory, I wouldn't kill the next Night. I might even claim to warn town about a redirector - so if Cow doesn't I don't think he is the vigilante. Or he's waiting for his real target to claim Magician
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Natlaw
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Post by Natlaw on Sept 25, 2009 15:20:28 GMT -5
Wolf secret power in previous games: -mass block except secret, needs two Wolves alive. -Recruit kill as Wolf (revives the next Dawn as by Witchdoctor, loses powers, Witches, Cabalist, Vampires and Vicar blessed players are immune)
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Merestil Haye
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Post by Merestil Haye on Sept 25, 2009 15:22:05 GMT -5
Wolf decisions: -Night One special ed tried to kill CatInASuit but failed, Parzival used this to tried to claim (if Parzival turns up not-Wolf, I'm screwed Tomorrow for sure) -Night Two we killed CatInASuit correctly assuming pedescribe (thus not Cat) would be protected -Night Three we killed Idle Thoughts (unless redirected to the same target, no one can counter claimed this with a 'no I killed Idle'). Careful. Why would the Wolves send out the Alpha Wolf on Night 1? Answer : Because the Alpha Wolf was the holder of the Wolf secret power, and he decided to use it Night 1. The power? A variant on the C1 power; that he can infect a player with lycanthropy. The infected player will rise the Dawn after his or her death is announced, and their faction will not be revealed. Unfortunately he picked Parzival, and died as a result. That makes Parzuval a Vampire, not a Magician. If Parzuval had been a Magician, Bufftabby would have died and not Special Ed. While the status of Alpha Wolf can be passed on, the special power cannot. See above. Night 2 sounds good. Night Three also sounds good. If challenged, say that you had to put the kill order in early last Night - that hides you behind the true killer because of the way Pleo deals with multiple kill orders against the same person.
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Merestil Haye
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Post by Merestil Haye on Sept 25, 2009 15:24:28 GMT -5
He should know he was redirected - if that happened to me as town vigilante and not compulsory, I wouldn't kill the next Night. I might even claim to warn town about a redirector - so if Cow doesn't I don't think he is the vigilante. Or he's waiting for his real target to claim Magician It would be hysterical if he'd actually targeted Hockeyguy (in which case he's a nonTown killer.)
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Merestil Haye
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Post by Merestil Haye on Sept 25, 2009 15:32:44 GMT -5
Hot news!
If we catch a remorseful Vig taking aim to kill himself, we can redirect that action.
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Natlaw
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Post by Natlaw on Sept 25, 2009 16:26:51 GMT -5
Okay so I Cow is vigilante and pede is telling the truth, that gives us a kill next Night.
I see another possible claim for myself: -counter-claim pedescribe as Seer -I investigated Parzival as Wolf Night Two, that's why I got him down as Wolf The extra good part is this: -pretty sure pede is lying and is Witch, this might force another Witch out in the open to confirm him (and we might have a kill ready for her!) -of course I claim I think pede is lying and probably is a Witch trying to trap Cabal, which is why I didn't counter claim him immediately.
-> would need some believable result for N1 and N2 though
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Post by NAF1138 on Sept 25, 2009 18:02:57 GMT -5
Okay so I Cow is vigilante and pede is telling the truth, that gives us a kill next Night. I see another possible claim for myself: -counter-claim pedescribe as Seer -I investigated Parzival as Wolf Night Two, that's why I got him down as Wolf The extra good part is this: -pretty sure pede is lying and is Witch, this might force another Witch out in the open to confirm him (and we might have a kill ready for her!) -of course I claim I think pede is lying and probably is a Witch trying to trap Cabal, which is why I didn't counter claim him immediately. -> would need some believable result for N1 and N2 though But we know Pede can't possibly be telling the truth. The question is...can we prove it? If we can prove it then we can get him in a lynch all liars scenario and maybe even make it look like he is the last wolf looking for cred. He hasn't really known anything that a wolf wouldn't know right? Then when a witch outs themselves we can redirect FCoD onto them. We just need to be able to prove pede is lying. Don't make a thing about your slip Nat and I don't think anyone else will either. If we can help me come up with a claim I can take the risk of taking down pede in his lie.
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Merestil Haye
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Post by Merestil Haye on Sept 25, 2009 18:21:20 GMT -5
What happens if there's a real Seer out there? They'll investigate Pedescribe (if they haven't already). If I were a Seer, I'd have assumed Pedescribe was a Witch, and leaving his role vague. Now he's lied, I'd feel obligated to check. Any counterclaim from us Today will likely draw an investigation Tonight, and we won't know who to block.
Also the fact that Pedescribe outed an Undead (the group who don't know each other) will lend him credence. So the claim has got to be pretty good to face up to the pressures.
I think at this stage a bit of caution is advised. Let's not commit to a claim until we have to.
I'm thinking of a Detective claim, if forced to the wire. I was p[lanning on Warlock, but I now believe there is on. No-one's going to believe two Warlocks.
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Post by NAF1138 on Sept 25, 2009 18:56:58 GMT -5
What happens if there's a real Seer out there? They'll investigate Pedescribe (if they haven't already). If I were a Seer, I'd have assumed Pedescribe was a Witch, and leaving his role vague. Now he's lied, I'd feel obligated to check. Any counterclaim from us Today will likely draw an investigation Tonight, and we won't know who to block. Also the fact that Pedescribe outed an Undead (the group who don't know each other) will lend him credence. So the claim has got to be pretty good to face up to the pressures. I think at this stage a bit of caution is advised. Let's not commit to a claim until we have to. I'm thinking of a Detective claim, if forced to the wire. I was p[lanning on Warlock, but I now believe there is on. No-one's going to believe two Warlocks. No, I don't think Warlock will work. I am not suggesting a counter claim, rather a way to catch him in what we know is a lie so he gets lynched for it toDay (ideally). I am just not sure what that is yet. I agree that caution is the watchword though. We need to all continue to stay alive if possible.
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Natlaw
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Post by Natlaw on Sept 26, 2009 0:54:07 GMT -5
More trouble with the Seer claim:
So need to give role, not just faction. That could be a point to press pede for as he only has given factions. He must give up the roles before Blockey + Idle flip (but blockey is an easy guess as Vamipre with Story NEcro)
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Merestil Haye
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Post by Merestil Haye on Sept 27, 2009 5:31:56 GMT -5
Been thinking about Pedescribe.
We know he's lying, but it occurs to me that we need to check what he's lying about. His claim that he investigated "a Townie who is still alive" might be a lie to hide the fact that he got no result at all (because we blocked him.) So we need to keep in mind that he's not a proven Witch.
If he can cough up Blockey's role before Dusk, that's a pointer that he's telling the truth (although from his latest post if he gets pushed he'll claim Blockey was a Vampire. We still need to nail him down so he can be tested against the clear light of Mod reveals.)
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Post by NAF1138 on Sept 27, 2009 10:00:59 GMT -5
On claims. Do you guys think that two of us could pull of a witch claim if it comes down to it? I wouldn't want all three of us to go that route, but two might be able to make it happen for long enough to get the third to endgame.
Also, good point about Pede MHaye.
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Merestil Haye
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Post by Merestil Haye on Sept 27, 2009 10:26:35 GMT -5
10 minutes and I'm off out for the evening - my D&D group meets.
Claiming Witch is gutsy, and might work. It should be Natlaw and one of us two; after Ragnarok I suspect that the two of us claiming a group might raise eyebrows.
Let's have a think about possible Witch actions. I'll post something when I get home.
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Natlaw
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Post by Natlaw on Sept 28, 2009 5:05:00 GMT -5
I can see pede lying as Seer to get us not to block him. It might be worth to block him again, since without better target.
The Witch claim is basically to trade two of us for two Witches: that means we need to get a Witch Lynched and redirect a kill on the other. We've two redirects but they got a protect. Very risky if we can't manage a lynch, although the Wolf or Vampire might help out.
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Natlaw
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Post by Natlaw on Sept 28, 2009 5:09:15 GMT -5
Just a note, if we claim Witches Today, note that Witches can only Night Talk so we can't have discussed the mass-claim called for Today together (which is why they have claimed yet I think, plus IMO it help Cabal more). But might just be weekend inactivity.
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Post by NAF1138 on Sept 28, 2009 12:12:29 GMT -5
It looks like the mass claim toDay is going to die on the table, so that's good. We can redirect FCoD toNight so I am going to start going through the remaining living players vote records and see if I can figure out who the witches might be if we assume the Pede isn't a witch and know that Cookies and FCoD aren't witches.
I am getting vaguely witchy vibes from Kat, but I will look into it further.
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Post by Merestil Haye on Sept 28, 2009 12:21:38 GMT -5
One of my early notes suggests Dot may be either Vig or Witchdoctor. See her question to Pleo in day 2. I don't see someone thinking of that unless they were one of the roles involved. I don't think we should ignore the mass claim, though. I'm going to suggest putting it off to Tomorrow, based on how I'd have thought in C2. When I was a Witch.
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Natlaw
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Post by Natlaw on Sept 28, 2009 12:25:31 GMT -5
know that Cookies and FCoD aren't witches. How do we know Cookies isn't a Witch? Blocks don't affect them. Also FCoD can't be entirely ruled out either (some other killer decided to kill Idle who looked Town to us).
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