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Post by Pleonast on Oct 7, 2009 14:07:02 GMT -5
Welcome to Night Five!
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Merestil Haye
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Post by Merestil Haye on Oct 7, 2009 14:24:05 GMT -5
I'm going to repost the role summary from the Day, updated with new information that we've learned. Part one I called The Quick and the Dead. The Quick 04. Idle Thoughts - Killed Night Three - Raised Day Five. Claim Vicar05. NAF Claim Warlock06. Flying Cow Claim Freemason07. Cookies Claim Wolf10. Nanook Claim Vigilante12. julie - Killed Night Three - Raised Day Five Claim Witchdoctor15. pedescribe Claim Witch19. hockeyguy Claim Magician20. PrecambrianMollusc Claim Vicar24. MHaye Claim ScotsmanThe Dead 21. Boozy Squid - Lynched Day One - Cabal - Cabalist 03. Special Ed - Killed Night One - Wolf - Alpha Wolf 18. Meeko - Killed Night One - Wolf - Omega Wolf 01. storyteller - Killed Night One - Undead - Necromancer 17. Mister Blockey - Lynched Day Two - Undead - Necromancer 09. CatInASuit - Killed Night Two - Town - Vigilante 23. peekercpa - Killed Night Two - Town - Witch 13. paulwhois - Killed Night Two - Wolf - Werewolf 25. bufftabby - Killed Night Two - Wolf - Werewolf 14. Parzival - Lynched Day Three - Town - Magician 16. Natlaw - Lynched Day Four - Cabal - Role Nightfall D6 02. Sister Coyote - Killed Night Four - Faction Dawn D6 - Role Dawn D7 11. BillMc - Killed Night Four - Faction Dawn D6 - Role Dawn D7 22. Death by Irony - Killed Night Four - Faction Dawn D6 - Role Dawn D7 08. Kat - Lynched Day 5 - Faction Dusk D6 - Role Dusk D7Town claims : [/i] be confused.) Dot has claimed Detective.[/ul] Kat, of course, claimed Vampire. That still seems plausible.
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Merestil Haye
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Post by Merestil Haye on Oct 7, 2009 14:27:04 GMT -5
Dang. Missed a line break. Pleo, can you insert it between the word "Wtich" in blue andthe number 13 in red on the 8th line of the section marked "The Dead."
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Merestil Haye
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Post by Merestil Haye on Oct 7, 2009 14:55:20 GMT -5
Many thanks
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Natlaw
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Post by Natlaw on Oct 7, 2009 14:56:06 GMT -5
It just occurred to me, maybe I should have claimed Cabal and urged the killers to go kill real Townies. It's to late to consider the ramifications now. You could false claim Seer and report that you've investigated yourself as Cabalist Tonight. Telling scum to kill town isn't allowed at Night though . Okay we have three or four killers left: Wolf (Cookies), Two Vampire (FCoD, raised Idle or julie) and Vigilante (Nanook). For Wolves to win, they need to kill Town/Cabal and lynch the Vampire. Since it's easier to lynch Cabal than Town, they'll most likely kill Town. So we don't want to block Cookies and don't have too much to fear from her. For Vampires to win, they need to kill in order Cabal, Town and Wolf (no threat them - if a Vampire and Wolf remain, the former wins at Night). So the vampire might target us, except to he needs Cabal around to lynch instead of him so he should not prefer to kill us. For the Vigilante to win, he needs to kill Cabal, Vampires and Wolf. But he should also slow down the killing. Possible targets: FCoD (claimed killer by Idle), Idle (claimed killed by Vampire while Vicar), Cookies (claimed Wolf) and MHaye (magically survived two attacks and if truthful not a complete loss). I still think we shouldn't block Nanook as I estimate the odds good he'll target other scum. However he doesn't have as much information as us. But there is also the fact that we need town to believe the Cabal is eradicate and lynch the last scum for us to win. If MHaye dies Tonight, D7 starts with the reveal that a Cabal is dead and two unknown dead who also could be Cabal. Again assuming maximum kills D7 starts with only three people (4 kills Tonight incl. Nanook, killer (FCoD or Idle) lynched, 2 kills N6, no one raised by julie). Best guess/hope hockeyguy (although Vampires could safely attack it might waste their kill), Cookies and NAF. Lynch of Cookies is plausible then and a win for us (even if hockeyguy thinks NAF Cabal, lynching him is a guaranteed Wolf win). If there is a double up kill, either or Nanook doesn't kill a Vampire then D7 start still with three people, possibly Vampire/hockeyguy/NAF. With a raised town (for example pede enchanted by julie) four, which looks like a Wolf or Vampire win to me (Magician/Cabal/Wolf/Vampire -> lynch Vampire or Wolf -> the not lynched killer kills Cabal and wins). I'll look at blocking Nanook next.
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Post by Natlaw on Oct 7, 2009 15:10:31 GMT -5
Blocking Nanook: N5 (10 alive): three kills: pede, PCM and Nanook but a dead Cabal or julie isn't too unlikely either. D6 (7 alive): even with two kills a killer needs to be lynched - FCoD, Cookies or Idle. N6 (6 alive): two kills: one Cabal if not N5 and maybe julie. D7 (5 alive): One raised by julie, if two kills last Night lynch for Cabal (FCoD/Idle most likely) N8 (4 alive): Two Town/Cabal/Cookies most likely kills of the raised town again. N9: Town/Cabal/Cookies.
If julie fails to raise, there are four players D7 with likely two killers - which again is likely loss for us.
That is a pretty similar out come to block julie instead of Nanook: -A Cabal is killed a Night later but the game lasts a Day longer as well -Both end on a Day where three Cabal are publicly death, but Town will lose to Wolf or Vampire if the don't lynch them for sure. -Both have six kills to kill us, but with multiple kills the lynch is pretty much locked to killers.
A more general conclusion: I think we need to avoid ending with four players / two killers as this is a loss for us. So we need to block to stop this from happening.
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Natlaw
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Post by Natlaw on Oct 7, 2009 15:11:32 GMT -5
if two kills last Night lynch for Cabal (FCoD/Idle most likely)
should read
if two kills last Night lynch for killer again (FCoD/Idle most likely)
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Merestil Haye
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Post by Merestil Haye on Oct 7, 2009 15:15:56 GMT -5
I disagree about Nanook.
The only way we have to win is to put the Town into a lose/lose position. If they spend lynches hunting us, they must then lose to the killing factions, and vice versa. The surest way to do that is to force them to spend lynches on eliminating the killers, so they can;t worry about us. The problem is that I think the largest killing faction can't have more than three, and probably only two, players. That means they need to force two to three mislynches (anyone who's not them) to win, and we must help them by stopping the one player who might go out and kill the Vampires.
In short, whether Nanook targets me or (say) FCoD, that's bad for us. Therefore I say we block Nanook.
I'm hoping the Scotsman claim makes people realise that if they kill me all they do is shrink the pool in which they can hide. My one worry is that, if Idle's a Vampire he'll take the chance to eliminate a voiciferous critic hoping I'm a liar. I couldn't play that situation otherwise though, because that's what I'd have done as a Scotsman - gone after an apparent liar.
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Natlaw
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Post by Natlaw on Oct 7, 2009 15:19:43 GMT -5
About claiming Cabal/warning about killers: it is possible to implicitly claim Seer at Night and claiming -Mhaye is Cabalist (Night One result) -DBI is Detective (Night Two result) -Cookies is Wolf (Night Three result) -FCoD is Vampire (Night Four result) -Idle is Vampire (Night Five) At least the rules don't forbid claiming past Night result explicitly, but perhaps better to check that . Of course, no one is going to believe you are Seer (in case you don't investigate yourself as Cabal) and have a power to magically survive attacks, but they might believe the information. Another note to keep in mind: even with Cookies there is likely a sixth Wolf out there. FCoD, julie, Sister Coyote, Idle are possibilities imo.
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Merestil Haye
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Post by Merestil Haye on Oct 7, 2009 15:26:51 GMT -5
If I want to make a Power use claim Tonight, all I need say is "I'm going to roleblock Nanook" and let them work it out for themselves. Making up a false Seer claim seems a bit daft when I can out myself as a truth-telling anti-Town force.
Even better : "I redirected FCoD onto Idle Night 3." That will open things up.
I'm not going to rush into things, although the chaos would be glorious...
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Natlaw
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Post by Natlaw on Oct 7, 2009 15:39:43 GMT -5
Ah, but the rules only allow (claimed) investigation results at Night so that's why you need the (obvious) fake Seer one.
The thing I think is bad about openly claiming is that it suggests Cabal can lose you since there is another one will hidden. Same goes for Kat! if she recruited julie and Cookies if there is another alive wolf (FCoD? julie?)
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Merestil Haye
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Post by Merestil Haye on Oct 7, 2009 15:51:28 GMT -5
I've PMd Pleo with some questions along these lines.
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Merestil Haye
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Post by Merestil Haye on Oct 7, 2009 16:04:04 GMT -5
We can claim any results of any power, real or not, no matter what the power. Investigations, blocks, secret powers forcing the dead to make like zombie cheerleaders - anything, anytime.
However, it has to be a result of a power use.
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Post by NAF1138 on Oct 8, 2009 10:38:53 GMT -5
Sorry, this rambles a bit but I only have a second and have a lot I want to try to put out there.
I think we have to go with the conservative play right now. We both need to stay alive for toNight and the best odds of that happening are us blocking Nanook. MHaye has a smaller target on his back when it comes to scum kills because they don't know that he isn't telling the truth and can't risk outing him as a scotsman and confirming him. Too high a risk, too low a reward.
I say we block Nanook toNight and then MHaye, when you slip, slip in such a way that it implicates Nanook as much as yourself. Be subtle (I know you can) and just display some PIS about Nanooks kills always failing or us not having a vig in the game or something like that. So when you die Nanook is set up to take the fall as the final Cabal.
We then need to see who gets killed toNight. I think the killers have to start targeting each other, or Pede or Julie (assuming that she isn't already scum). Pede is confirmed town, Julie is (if she is truthful) the most dangerous player alive.
Block Nanook
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Post by Merestil Haye on Oct 8, 2009 11:05:37 GMT -5
First order of business. Block Nanook. Second. NAF, the problem with trying to take Nanook with me is this post by Dot. She confirms Nanook has a killing role. Since her faction will be public knowledge by then, we'll have a big hurdle to overcome. How about FCoD? Reckon we could smear him as a fourth Cabal? I am going to do a couple more organisational posts Tonight, in between breainstorming with Mr. Blockey, now I've given Yattara a dilemma in combat.
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Post by Merestil Haye on Oct 8, 2009 11:55:41 GMT -5
Fruits of a morning spent on public transport.
Firstly, the results of Night 3. As I said in the game thread, I consider it very likely that Sister Coyote enchanted Idle on Night 3. That doesn't say anything about Julie's alignment.
If Julie is Town, she's going to be buying time for the Town by resurrecting people. She has to go, because that undercuts our "dig a hole for Town" strategy. Worse, it will be quite likely that Sister Coyote is resurrected with the Dawn.
The only good news here is that in this case neither Witchdoctor will be able to use the special power to bring back Bill. Or Peeker.
Nanook also has to go because he can remove the killing elements. Tonight we blocked him, but I hope he turns up dead. And stays dead. (Nothing personal, Nanook, but we can't have the Town killing enemies too fast.)
So, Idle.
The simplest set of actions that could produce this situation is that Idle was killed on N3 (by FCoD the Wolf), and resurrected by Sister Coyote's protection. To the Town, the only evidence against this is that DarkCookies claimed to attack me N3, and the Wolves can't make two attacks of a Night without a special power. However, the Town can convince themselves that since DarkCookies is a self-confessed anti-Town faction member, that she's lying about trying to kill N3, presumably to hide her fellow Wolf..
We know that she was roleblocked, so we have additional evidence to confirm her story. My "overlooking" that will provide grounds for a slip - if someone doesn't catch it and challenge me anyway.
It would be hysterical if she was lying and claimig a roleblock to cover for FCoD, when she was in fact roleblocked but doesn't know it.
This is getting more annd more complicated by the minute. I'll probably try and redraft my kills post to take this possibility into account.
Back in a while.
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Natlaw
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Post by Natlaw on Oct 8, 2009 12:54:15 GMT -5
We then need to see who gets killed toNight. I think the killers have to start targeting each other, or Pede or Julie (assuming that she isn't already scum). The Wolves simply cannot kill Vampires and the Vampires benefit from having an outed Wolf around for lynch instead of them. Cookies can be lynched especially if there is one one kill at Night (as last killer) or with multiple killers (as a Vampire, even hidden block the Cabal win). Firstly, the results of Night 3. As I said in the game thread, I consider it very likely that Sister Coyote enchanted Idle on Night 3. That doesn't say anything about Julie's alignment. If Julie is Town, she's going to be buying time for the Town by resurrecting people. She has to go, because that undercuts our "dig a hole for Town" strategy. Worse, it will be quite likely that Sister Coyote is resurrected with the Dawn. I'm not sure - the obvious target was pedescribe or herself. If she also had the secret resurrect power besides the one enchant, with so many Wolves and Undead dead she might have used it D4 to resurrect Idle or julie. But if she didn't she might self-resurrect at Dawn. I think that's another reason to not block Nanook to maximize the kills. FCoD, Cookies and Idle have the most lynchable claims at the moment but closely followed by MHaye. NAF not as bad but there will be no extra supporting evidence (unless lucky and not countered by the real killer). So less Days is better and NAF is not a high-priority target for Vampires (although a danger to Cookies) as the more confirmed townies. Block NanookAs to have no dissent as I won't be around tomorrow, but I prefer blocking julie Tonight. But I'm dead and less experienced as you guys .
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Natlaw
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Post by Natlaw on Oct 9, 2009 3:29:55 GMT -5
Bit of meta game: Sister Coyote who's dead posted in the going to be away thread so she expects to come back? Two Witchdoctors around is not good for scum, so julie better get killed.
Anyway won't be around until after Dawn - good luck!
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