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Day Six
Oct 9, 2009 16:49:38 GMT -5
Post by Nanook on Oct 9, 2009 16:49:38 GMT -5
Dude, pede, slow down and take a deep breath.
I don't believe for a second that the Cabal have a special power of a Nightly kill along with the Nightly block. That's seriously overpowered, no matter what restrictions you throw on it. A one time, unblockable kill(like they had in Conspiracy 2)? Sure, that makes perfect sense. But repeatable kills is dumb.
So I've looked back over the time line of things. Ped and the witches reported Idle as Town at the same time(more or less) that we found out he was dead. So we know at least at that time, he was Town. He's since claimed Vicar, and DBI(who we know was Town) said that she couldn't find out why he died. Idle then stated that FCoD killed him. The rules state that a Vampire kill will come back null. Whether or not there are other reasons for a kill to come back null is unknown. These are the facts, and I don't think anyone is willing to dispute them.
So how do we reconcile these facts? At first, the logical answer would be that Idle is lying about his role. Vicar's can't be killed by Vamps, and Vamp kills return a null result. But here's where it breaks down. Why would Idle lie? Forget for a moment whether he is currently Town or scum of whatever flavor. We know he was Town at one time, period. So why lie about his role when he came back? A Town Idle wouldn't. A scum Idle wouldn't have any reason to do so, since it's a lot simpler to just claim his original role. So therefore Idle must be telling the truth about being(at least formerly) a Vicar. So how did he die with a null result being returned to the Detective? I can think of 3 possibilites, none of which leave FCoD as Town, and all require special Powers.
1. FCoD as Cabal. One shot, unblockable kill. I find this the least likely, since how would Idle know who killed him but not DBI?
2. FCoD as Wolf. Same issues as above.
3. FCoD as Vampire. This is the one that I can buy. Vamp with the undead special ability, a one shot kill that bypasses all protections. It's still done by a Vamp, so DBI wouldn't get a result, and as the special power it would bypass the Vicar protection. But it's still done by FCoD, so Idle would be told who killed him.
Ok Idle, I've come around. I believe your story regarding FCoD for now. That isn't to say you couldn't have been recruited, since we know nothing about what the recruiting method is in this game, if one even exists. But I do believe you regarding being a Vicar.
Vote: FCoD
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Day Six
Oct 9, 2009 17:27:54 GMT -5
Post by NAF1138 on Oct 9, 2009 17:27:54 GMT -5
Well, since it seems unlikely that Julie was a wolf either PCM was the wolf who killed Bill (and I have that in my notes as unlikely that PCM was a wolf but don't have a reason for why) or Bill was killed by a Vamp. That Vamp wasn't Kat so they are still alive and kicking. woot. :rolleyes:
I enchanted Nanook last Night figuring either he or Julie were highest on the "to kill" lists, and it looks like I guessed wrong.
I got pulled into a project rooting through file boxes for the rest of the day and we have a baby shower this weekend, so this is probably going to be my last post until Monday. I will vote then.
Hope the above is helpful.
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Day Six
Oct 9, 2009 18:02:36 GMT -5
Post by Trepa Mayfield on Oct 9, 2009 18:02:36 GMT -5
PCM is Town, since we investigated him.
Also, we know (more or less) that Cookies is the last Wolf.
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Day Six
Oct 9, 2009 18:38:59 GMT -5
Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Oct 9, 2009 18:38:59 GMT -5
I confess, I killed Julie last Night.
But something is up with Mhaye, regardless of whether or not both Nanook and I are not town. The dude is not dying and not showing up as mod-confirmed Scotsman either. If y'all want to embrace him to your townie bosom only to have it blow up into a heaping pile of carnage, don't say you haven't been warned.
It is really hurting my feelings. I've only told a couple of fibs...
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Day Six
Oct 9, 2009 18:46:01 GMT -5
Post by Trepa Mayfield on Oct 9, 2009 18:46:01 GMT -5
I confess, I killed Julie last Night. But something is up with Mhaye, regardless of whether or not both Nanook and I are not town. The dude is not dying and not showing up as mod-confirmed Scotsman either. If y'all want to embrace him to your townie bosom only to have it blow up into a heaping pile of carnage, don't say you haven't been warned. It is really hurting my feelings. I've only told a couple of fibs... Question: What is the wolf secret power?
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Day Six
Oct 9, 2009 22:15:34 GMT -5
Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Oct 9, 2009 22:15:34 GMT -5
Someone is not paying attention, as I already told you the truth in that regard in my claim on Day 4. It is as if all I say is immediately dismissed.
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Day Six
Oct 9, 2009 22:43:18 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Oct 9, 2009 22:43:18 GMT -5
FCoD:
You haven't been reading the last Day, I see. I'm a Vicar.
MHaye:
It's a semi-open game.
I have...and I repeat:
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Day Six
Oct 10, 2009 8:51:05 GMT -5
Post by Trepa Mayfield on Oct 10, 2009 8:51:05 GMT -5
Someone is not paying attention, as I already told you the truth in that regard in my claim on Day 4. It is as if all I say is immediately dismissed. Oh yeah. I forgot about that. I confess, I killed Julie last Night. But something is up with Mhaye, regardless of whether or not both Nanook and I are not town. The dude is not dying and not showing up as mod-confirmed Scotsman either. If y'all want to embrace him to your townie bosom only to have it blow up into a heaping pile of carnage, don't say you haven't been warned. It is really hurting my feelings. I've only told a couple of fibs... Be more specific. Are you saying the wolves tried to kill him one Day?
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Day Six
Oct 10, 2009 12:04:55 GMT -5
Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Oct 10, 2009 12:04:55 GMT -5
It is all in the same post made on Day 4, wherein I also explained the wolf power.
Nanook's testimony about when he attacked Mhaye matched my experience: A PM explaining that the kill attempt had failed, with no Scotsman reveal the following Dawn, which prompted me to follow up with this:
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Day Six
Oct 10, 2009 13:51:07 GMT -5
Post by Sister Coyote on Oct 10, 2009 13:51:07 GMT -5
You know...that's interesting, cookies.
Vote: Mhaye because something smells. Vote: FCOD because although Idle could certainly be lying, somebody killed him.
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Day Six
Oct 10, 2009 23:29:33 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Oct 10, 2009 23:29:33 GMT -5
Speaking of which, Sister...who killed YOU? Were you told? Because it's commonly known that if/when you come back from the dead having enchanted, you're told who killed you. Who did?
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Day Six
Oct 11, 2009 11:54:10 GMT -5
Post by Sister Coyote on Oct 11, 2009 11:54:10 GMT -5
I was just told. Cookies killed me.
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Day Six
Oct 11, 2009 13:50:39 GMT -5
Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Oct 11, 2009 13:50:39 GMT -5
Lies!
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Day Six
Oct 11, 2009 23:15:12 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Oct 11, 2009 23:15:12 GMT -5
Things really seem to be getting interesting around here.
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Day Six
Oct 12, 2009 8:02:18 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Oct 12, 2009 8:02:18 GMT -5
Really, what the hell? I'm going to start voting for all of you if people don't get talking. We give the game up to scum if we don't talk. I'm sure the scum are all gleefully rubbing their hands together right now that the game is all of dead and nobody's said anything, save for two-three posts, for about 24 hours.
No talking never helps Town.
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Day Six
Oct 12, 2009 8:23:18 GMT -5
Post by The Real FCOD on Oct 12, 2009 8:23:18 GMT -5
FCoD: You haven't been reading the last Day, I see. I'm a Vicar. So? Pleonast confirmed that if you were blocked your protection would be nullified. So, I say again: How do we know you weren't recruited by the Vampires? Did I miss somewhere that we know whom the Cabal blocked that night? I'm just trying to find a logical explanation for what happened, since I know you must be lying about me killing you, since I didn't. I accept that you were a Town role prior to death, so the only logical explanation is that you were converted. Unless there's some special power that makes it appear that I killed you, but I think that would be kinda gastardy. --FCOD
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Day Six
Oct 12, 2009 11:09:07 GMT -5
Post by NAF1138 on Oct 12, 2009 11:09:07 GMT -5
I think it's interesting that MHaye has (theoretically) been attacked several times, but nothing has happened.
On the other hand it could easily be explained away by Cabal blocking Cookies and Nanook, so it doesn't really mean much. The question really is, can we afford the mislynch/no lynch on MHaye in order to gain another confirmed town if he is telling the truth?
I don't know yet. I am not sure we need it.
Let's look at the current living players
04. Idle Thoughts - Killed Night Three - Raised Day Five 05. NAF 06. Flying Cow 07. Cookies 02. Sister Coyote - Killed Night Four - Raised Day Six 10. Nanook 15. pedescribe 19. hockeyguy 24. MHaye
Of this group we have Nanook, Sister and Pede as fairly well confirmed town. Leaving:
04. Idle Thoughts - Killed Night Three - Raised Day Five 05. NAF 06. Flying Cow 07. Cookies 19. hockeyguy 24. MHaye
In that list we have Cookies who we know is scum, and one other vamp, and one or two more Cabal.
Honestly, what makes the most sense to me, knowing that I am town, is that FCoD is our last vamp (since he probably killed Idle, and it makes more sense that Idle was blocked and FCoD killed him than the convoluted recrutment theory.) Cookies is our last wolf (sice she claimed it) and Hockeyguy is our last Cabal or Hockeyguy and MHaye are our last Cabal together.
It's the only configuration that makes any sense to me. Is there any information about Hockeyguy that I am missing that would clear him, because from where I am sitting, with his doubled up magician claim and already driving one townie to a lynch based on that coupled with his lack of participation (which I know I have been guilty of too, but sorry, life happened and I do try to keep you all updated) he smells the most like Cabal to me.
The next question is, can we afford to kill Cabal when we have two killers on the lose and numbers this low? And of course, can we risk a mislynch/no lynch when there is a chance of catching MHaye out as Cabal? Is the risk worth the reward?
I don't know.
I do know that looking at those numbers another night of two Night kills on town is very bad for town. If the killers decide to either take each other out, or if they take out two confirmed townies, we are down to next to no chance at a win.
Vote: FCoD Vote: Cookies
I need to think about the Mhaye vote still. It might be worth it, numbers wise to play that risk reward game. I'm just not sure yet.
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Day Six
Oct 12, 2009 12:36:50 GMT -5
Post by hockeyguy8435 on Oct 12, 2009 12:36:50 GMT -5
I think it's interesting that MHaye has (theoretically) been attacked several times, but nothing has happened. On the other hand it could easily be explained away by Cabal blocking Cookies and Nanook, so it doesn't really mean much. The question really is, can we afford the mislynch/no lynch on MHaye in order to gain another confirmed town if he is telling the truth? I don't know yet. I am not sure we need it. Let's look at the current living players 04. Idle Thoughts - Killed Night Three - Raised Day Five 05. NAF 06. Flying Cow 07. Cookies 02. Sister Coyote - Killed Night Four - Raised Day Six 10. Nanook 15. pedescribe 19. hockeyguy 24. MHaye Of this group we have Nanook, Sister and Pede as fairly well confirmed town. Leaving: 04. Idle Thoughts - Killed Night Three - Raised Day Five 05. NAF 06. Flying Cow 07. Cookies 19. hockeyguy 24. MHaye In that list we have Cookies who we know is scum, and one other vamp, and one or two more Cabal. Honestly, what makes the most sense to me, knowing that I am town, is that FCoD is our last vamp (since he probably killed Idle, and it makes more sense that Idle was blocked and FCoD killed him than the convoluted recrutment theory.) Cookies is our last wolf (sice she claimed it) and Hockeyguy is our last Cabal or Hockeyguy and MHaye are our last Cabal together. It's the only configuration that makes any sense to me. Is there any information about Hockeyguy that I am missing that would clear him, because from where I am sitting, with his doubled up magician claim and already driving one townie to a lynch based on that coupled with his lack of participation (which I know I have been guilty of too, but sorry, life happened and I do try to keep you all updated) he smells the most like Cabal to me. The next question is, can we afford to kill Cabal when we have two killers on the lose and numbers this low? And of course, can we risk a mislynch/no lynch when there is a chance of catching MHaye out as Cabal? Is the risk worth the reward? I don't know. I do know that looking at those numbers another night of two Night kills on town is very bad for town. If the killers decide to either take each other out, or if they take out two confirmed townies, we are down to next to no chance at a win. Vote: FCoD [/color] Vote: Cookies [/color] I need to think about the Mhaye vote still. It might be worth it, numbers wise to play that risk reward game. I'm just not sure yet. [/quote] Yes, I was inactive yesterday. You've been inactive for like four Days. I'm not Cabal, I was just wrong on what I said before. It's that simple. Want a new configuration? Someone is lying and you believe them, or you're Cabal.
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Day Six
Oct 12, 2009 12:53:54 GMT -5
Post by NAF1138 on Oct 12, 2009 12:53:54 GMT -5
Yes, I was inactive yesterday. You've been inactive for like four Days. My whole long post and that's all you took away from it? Anyway, I know I am biased but, my inactivity is kind of meaningless. This game was a little bit bigger (as it turns out) than I was able to handle at the start, and combine that with my inability to post on weekends right now and unfortunatly I am only just now catching up. (YesterDay really, but why quibble?) The difference is you dropping off the radar is a change in pattern, which is actually something to notice. Changes in pattern are significant, consistant behavior generally is meaningless.
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Day Six
Oct 12, 2009 12:59:09 GMT -5
Post by Sister Coyote on Oct 12, 2009 12:59:09 GMT -5
Really, what the hell? I'm going to start voting for all of you if people don't get talking. We give the game up to scum if we don't talk. I'm sure the scum are all gleefully rubbing their hands together right now that the game is all of dead and nobody's said anything, save for two-three posts, for about 24 hours. No talking never helps Town. Sorry, I was AFK most of the weekend, and things are kind of chaotic here today. Vote: vote: cookies
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Day Six
Oct 12, 2009 13:01:26 GMT -5
Post by Sister Coyote on Oct 12, 2009 13:01:26 GMT -5
If FCOD is a Vampire, then Idle is lying, because Idle claimed Vicar and should be immune to being Vamped.
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Day Six
Oct 12, 2009 13:04:34 GMT -5
Post by The Real FCOD on Oct 12, 2009 13:04:34 GMT -5
Unless Idle was blocked that night, in which case his immunity would not be in effect.
However, I'm not a Vampire and he is lying.
--FCOD
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Day Six
Oct 12, 2009 13:20:17 GMT -5
Post by Merestil Haye on Oct 12, 2009 13:20:17 GMT -5
Unless Idle was blocked that night, in which case his immunity would not be in effect. Where do you get that from? I don't remember seeing Pleo saying that in the rules. Can you link to the relevant post? Cheers.
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Day Six
Oct 12, 2009 13:23:26 GMT -5
Post by The Real FCOD on Oct 12, 2009 13:23:26 GMT -5
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Day Six
Oct 12, 2009 15:26:00 GMT -5
Post by Merestil Haye on Oct 12, 2009 15:26:00 GMT -5
First of all, I apologise for my distraction over the weekend. Mostly it was my regular D&D game, but other things demanded attention too. While I digest the insight FCoD has vouchsafed, a comment on Sister Coyote's vote for me. You know...that's interesting, cookies. Vote: Mhaye because something smells. Vote: FCOD because although Idle could certainly be lying, somebody killed him. What smells? It might be the graveclothes you wore while we thought you were dead. Seriously though, it's not at all surprising that the nonTown killing factions have left me alone. Consider; we currently have 9 living players. Of those, how many are confirmed as Town? Two players are almost certainly Town; Pedescribe and Nanook. You could cast any of the others in an antiTown role if you make the right suppositions. That means there are seven players in the "unknown pool". I'll concede that the chances of Sister Coyote being recruited are slim, but they are there. It's obvious that I have not been successfully attacked Overnight. But that's not too surprising, since it is not in the interests of any of the anti-Town factions to eliminate me. At this stage of the game, with the unknown pool so slim, the killers are more interested in knocking off the known Townspeople, and since it takes two attempts on successive Nights to eliminate me, they're probably focussing their kills on other known Town, or people who can slow down the rate of attrition. The only player who might possibly have a good reason to attack me of a Night is Nanook, since if his attack had worked, I would now either be a proven Townsperson or dead. In either case, the Town benefit. Thus his alleged attack on me is exactly what a Townie Nanook should have been doing. That his attack on Night 4 failed suggests to me that the Cabal have come to the same conclusion and are blocking Nanook to keep alive the possibility that I am in fact lying. As for lynching me to prove my claim, we need to carefully consider whether we can afford the wasted lynch, in terms of the tempo we hand to the remaining killers. Remember their goal is to reduce the number of surviving players to the point when they are one-half or more of the populace. Our only saving grace is that the Wolves and Undead are working against each other as much as against us.
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Day Six
Oct 12, 2009 16:10:18 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Oct 12, 2009 16:10:18 GMT -5
FCoD: You haven't been reading the last Day, I see. I'm a Vicar. So? Pleonast confirmed that if you were blocked your protection would be nullified. So, I say again: How do we know you weren't recruited by the Vampires? Did I miss somewhere that we know whom the Cabal blocked that night? I'm just trying to find a logical explanation for what happened, since I know you must be lying about me killing you, since I didn't. I accept that you were a Town role prior to death, so the only logical explanation is that you were converted. Unless there's some special power that makes it appear that I killed you, but I think that would be kinda gastardy. --FCOD I think you're grasping at straws here with your first paragraph As I said.......I do not believe being recruited (if the undead are the ones able to do it) comes from one dying from non-vampire means (because I wasn't killed by a vampire) and then a vampire being able to vamp you. I believe that if it's the undead with the recruiting power, a vampire looking to do that would have to be the killer of the player.. It makes MORE sense that way. Vampires kill their prey and (sometimes) make more undead out of them. They then rise later. You can see this in any sort of vampire fiction. Therefore if you're thinking a vampire raised me, I'd have to call bullshit. Doesn't make sense to me that a vampire could raise me after I'm already dead and gone, unless they were the killer of me. As for your second, you give a good effort but I'm still going to have to lean on the side of you just saying that as the only excuse you can when getting caught. If FCOD is a Vampire, then Idle is lying, because Idle claimed Vicar and should be immune to being Vamped. That sounds like a nice try at a future smudge...but it's already been pointed out (and I agreed with), by Nanook: It's not unplausible, obviously. If FCoD is a vamp, it's the only thing that can be the case. Unless Idle was blocked that night, in which case his immunity would not be in effect. However, I'm not a Vampire and he is lying. --FCOD You realize what would have had to happen then, right? Allow me to tell you... ...On my death Night, pede would have found out what I was. SisterC would have enchanted me. A vamp would have had to kill me Someone would have had to block me ....and all of those things either before it was found I was Town or on the Day after..... after I was already killed.* *Aka, the vampire and blocker wouldn't have known what I was. I hadn't claimed yet nor was it known I was investigated by Town yet. So again, what you're claiming is an impossibility. Well, not impossible in the sense of the word, I suppose, if you also agree that possibly finding a needle in a haystack the size of Chicago isn't an IMPOSSIBILITY. But it's too complex for words. I'd say the odds are that all that happened are great than a person being struck by lightning, while playing "She Wore An Itsy-Bitsy, Teeny-Weeny, Yellow, Polka-Dot Bikini on a saxiphone.....twice.
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Day Six
Oct 12, 2009 18:18:11 GMT -5
Post by Sister Coyote on Oct 12, 2009 18:18:11 GMT -5
Honestly wasn't trying to smudge anyone.
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Day Six
Oct 12, 2009 22:02:10 GMT -5
Post by Trepa Mayfield on Oct 12, 2009 22:02:10 GMT -5
Two players are almost certainly Town; Pedescribe and Nanook. You could cast any of the others in an antiTown role if you make the right suppositions. That means there are seven players in the "unknown pool". I'll concede that the chances of Sister Coyote being recruited are slim, but they are there. It's obvious that I have not been successfully attacked Overnight. But that's not too surprising, since it is not in the interests of any of the anti-Town factions to eliminate me. At this stage of the game, with the unknown pool so slim, the killers are more interested in knocking off the known Townspeople, and since it takes two attempts on successive Nights to eliminate me, they're probably focussing their kills on other known Town, or people who can slow down the rate of attrition. The only player who might possibly have a good reason to attack me of a Night is Nanook, since if his attack had worked, I would now either be a proven Townsperson or dead. In either case, the Town benefit. Thus his alleged attack on me is exactly what a Townie Nanook should have been doing. That his attack on Night 4 failed suggests to me that the Cabal have come to the same conclusion and are blocking Nanook to keep alive the possibility that I am in fact lying. As for lynching me to prove my claim, we need to carefully consider whether we can afford the wasted lynch, in terms of the tempo we hand to the remaining killers. Remember their goal is to reduce the number of surviving players to the point when they are one-half or more of the populace. Our only saving grace is that the Wolves and Undead are working against each other as much as against us. Hold up hold up hold up... what?! Since when is Nanook basically confirmed?
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Day Six
Oct 13, 2009 6:10:13 GMT -5
Post by Merestil Haye on Oct 13, 2009 6:10:13 GMT -5
Hold up hold up hold up... what?! Since when is Nanook basically confirmed? We know Nanook's a killer, since DBI the Townsperson claimed he killed Bufftabby. We know Nanook is not a Wolf, since he killed a Wolf. Going on the precedent of Conspiracy 2, if the Cabal have a secret kill, all that would be revealed on a Detective investigation is that the Cabal killed. DBI got the name, therefore this was not a secret Cabal kill. What's left? He's a Vig. (I don't think it likely that he's been recruited - again, precedent from prior games. Idle's description of Vampire recruitment is correct, for the most part. When I read the rules and saw "possible recruitment" I thought it likely that Pleo was reverting the secret power of Wolves or Vampires to work like they did in C1. So it's likely that any recruitment would involve a death and resurrection. Nanook hasn't died in the game.)
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Day Six
Oct 13, 2009 10:45:30 GMT -5
Post by Merestil Haye on Oct 13, 2009 10:45:30 GMT -5
Thanks to the link that FCoD provided, we now know from D05.138 that if a player is roleblocked, any self-protections they may have are suppressed. Thus, it is possible (if Idle was in fact roleblocked) that he could have been attacked and killed by a Vampire. This would explain how a Vicar could be slain and yet have a Detective be unable to determine the name of the killer. Now, that makes things look very black for FCoD. We know that he was enchanted N3 by Sister Coyote; she says so, and Julie (who we now have good reasons to believe was Town) denied doing so. if Idle is Town, why would he lie about his attacker? In this case, FCoD is a Vampire. However, if Idle is lying about his post resurrection alignment, then he's doing so because his killer recruited him. In that case, his killer is still a Vampire (because DBI got no results) and the suppression of his immunity also rendered him vulnerable to recruitment. The only open question would then be did FCoD actually kill Idle, or not? I can see arguments both ways. Before I go into them, I want to go through and rexamine the kills Night by Night. This assumes, of course, that Idle was roleblocked on N3, something about which only the Cabal and DarkCookies have any evidence. Remeber, DarkCookies attested that she attacked me on Night 3 and failed to kill. That failure was unlikely to be a protective role protecting me. - The only open protective role was that of the Witches; since Peeker died in N2, in N3 they could block or investigate, but not both. We know from Pedescribe that they investigated Idle on Night 3, so they could not have protected me.
- Of the four factions, the only one that was likely to be given a secret protective role would be Town. The only trouble is, we have good evidence that the secret power of the Town was the Witchdoctor's power to resurrect the dead. So it wasn't given to the Town.
- It makes no sense for Wolves to be given a secret protective power, and neither does it make sense for Undead, except in one case; making Necromancers immune to Vampire kills in the same way that Vicars are. Given that we had two Necromancers dead before the end of N2, I'll be surprised of there are any more to be uncovered among the living or recent dead.
- That would leave the Cabal. I have to be honest, although it's possible I don't think it's plausible. The powers of the Cabal in C1 were designed to spread chaos - the one I remember is that one player had a one-shot ability to randomly reassign all Night actions. (It never got used because the player died before deciding to us it.) In C2, of course, they had a one-shot unblockable kill. A secret protective power doesn't seem likely.
If I was not protected N3, then either DarkCookies attacked me and was roleblocked, or she's lying for her own lycanthropic reasons, and never actually attacked me at all. In which case, what did the Wolves do on Night 3? Sit on their haunches and bay at the moon in frustration? I doubt it. That wouldn't help them win. I'm quite certain that they dd attack someone that Night - and either they got roleblocked or doubled up on attacking either Idle or Julie, and submitted their kill order before the actual killer of their target did.
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