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Day 5
Dec 1, 2009 8:09:39 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Dec 1, 2009 8:09:39 GMT -5
Meanwhile -
sach, you're really the only player left in the game whose motives I trust to be the same as mine. I am open to be convinced to vote shaggy instead of Pleonast, but in light of my post immediately preceeding this one, how do you address the chance that we are at lynch-or-lose right now and could easily lose to the Scum by lynching shaggy (if he is a non-Scum non-Killer and there were > 3 Scum at the outset of the game).
Frankly, I have a sinking feeling that Town has already basically lost this game and we are playing to determine which other faction is going to win the game. I hope I'm wrong, but I am trying and failing to come up with explanations for the two three-death Nights other than the existence of a non-Scum killer. And if there is a non-Scum killer, then either SC's role was nonsensical or we have two third-parties left. And if we have two third-parties left, then we have only three Town left, no killing ability and no particularly useful powers remaining. Yikes.
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Day 5
Dec 1, 2009 9:46:04 GMT -5
Post by sinjin on Dec 1, 2009 9:46:04 GMT -5
And most importantly: why aren't you worried about losing to Scum, given the numbers above? I am worried about losing to scum but don't think we will lose to them tonight. First off, I refuse to believe we started this game with five infiltrators, two anti-town kills a night, no doc and a win stealing alien. All that coupled with the delayed, limited reveal card-flip is so anti-town as to be game breaking. If it turns out to be true the game was over for town day one and I've wasted my time playing. I am convinced Shaggy is the alien that SisterC was hunting. I don't think he has ever denied he was her target (if I get bored I'll go back and look). His two major assertions are that he isn't the second killer and that he can choose to win with town. I'm coming around to believing the first but don't for a minute believe the second. There is no reason for SisterC's role to exist unless the alien is a threat to town. It would be totally gastard to have her suss out a benign alien while a killer alien runs free. I'm starting to think the infiltrators had two kill mechanisms. One the normal scum kill, which would account for the various and sundry killings and the second somewhat more limited explosion kills. Dirx was listed as a weapons specialist/strongman. The last explosion occurred the night after Dirx was lynched and unfortunately took out two players. Bomb set up during the day? Whatever...there was no extra kill last night and I'm hoping that holds true for toNight.
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Day 5
Dec 1, 2009 10:21:47 GMT -5
Post by sachertorte on Dec 1, 2009 10:21:47 GMT -5
sach, you're really the only player left in the game whose motives I trust to be the same as mine. This is not nearly as endearing as one might think it is. In order for us to be at lynch or lose at this point, there need to be 3 scum remaining. If this is the case then we were at lynch or lose on Day 4 when there were 9 players (4 of whom were scum). This also means that on Day 3 when there were 13 players (5 of whom were scum), the Town was nominally not at lynch or lose, but actually WERE. I do not believe this can be the case. For the current state to be lynch or lose, the game must have started with 5 scum + Guy Incognito + Shaggy as non-Town elements. That is 7 of 20, more than 33%. Furthermore, Town has mis-lynched twice. Lynching Shaggy is not a mis-lynch. I would be very surprised and would strongly question the balance of the game should town lose upon lynching a claimed alien after only mis-lynching twice. One could argue that we are technically at 3 mis-lynches due to the misfirings of the Town Vigilante, but even at 3 mislynches, I think Town's lynch burden should roughly correlate to the number of mislynches available. In other words, if the Town is responsible for killing 5 scum and an alien, then allotment of 4 or less mislynches is not balanced in my opinion. You are correct that something is not adding up. I agree that the deaths and Sister Coyote's claims indicate more than 1 non-Town non-Scum milling about, but we don't know the full powers of the scum either (at least I don't ). Anyway, if there are two third parties left, then there are certainly not so many scum remaining either. I'm curious why you state that 2 third parties means there are only 3 Town left (i.e., 2 3rd party, 3 Town, and presumably 2 scum). Is it not possible that there is only 1 scum left? Is it not possible that the game began with 3 aliens and 3 scum? In the ideal case, we lynch non-Town Today and experience only 1 death at Night. That brings us to 5 living players at Dawn of Day 6. How many of those players do you think need to be tagged by a Mad Bomber in order to win the game? Shaggy says all of them. Do you believe him? 50%? 66%? 75%? Even at 75%, Shaggy needs 3 of the 4 living non-Shaggy players to be tagged. I think this is entirely possible. Is shaggy the bigger threat than scum right now? I don't know. But I think so.
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Day 5
Dec 2, 2009 1:26:27 GMT -5
Post by CatInASuit on Dec 2, 2009 1:26:27 GMT -5
Exceedingly Late Vote Count
Current Status: No Lynch.
pleonast (3) shaggy (3)
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Day 5
Dec 2, 2009 7:37:47 GMT -5
Post by special on Dec 2, 2009 7:37:47 GMT -5
Exceedingly Late Vote CountCurrent Status: No Lynch. pleonast (3) shaggy (3) 7 to 8 hours left by my calculations. No lynch is bad.
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Day 5
Dec 2, 2009 7:54:41 GMT -5
Post by sinjin on Dec 2, 2009 7:54:41 GMT -5
I agree no lynch is bad. Sachertorte needs to get in here and vote.
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Day 5
Dec 2, 2009 7:58:33 GMT -5
Post by special on Dec 2, 2009 7:58:33 GMT -5
I agree no lynch is bad. Sachertorte needs to get in here and vote. I can't guarantee access from work, but I'll try to check back. If it gets close, I'll switch my vote
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Day 5
Dec 2, 2009 8:52:27 GMT -5
Post by sachertorte on Dec 2, 2009 8:52:27 GMT -5
I'm actually very tempted to vote for Pleonast simply because he seems to be ducking Today. But I think eliminating a Mad Bomber is more important at this point. I feel a Mad Bomber can conceivably win with 5 remaining players. I do not think scum can win with 5 remaining players. Of course we have no guarantees that shaggy is telling the truth about being an alien, but it is the best we have at this point.
Vote: shaggy
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Day 5
Dec 2, 2009 9:41:23 GMT -5
Post by sachertorte on Dec 2, 2009 9:41:23 GMT -5
It occurs to me that Catinasuit has implemented the tie = no lynch ruleset. I have fundamental problems with this rule as it can be gamed by scum. In theory, shaggy is an alien, so I think his lynch will go through. However, I also see the benefits of a scummy Pleonast switching his vote at the last minute to push a tie. Sure, he would expose himself, but he's already under heavy suspicion, so squashing a lynch would be very much to scum's advantage.
I invite someone to switch their vote to shaggy. If necessary, I'm willing to switch to Pleonast to assure a larger majority as well.
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Day 5
Dec 2, 2009 10:00:48 GMT -5
Post by Red Skeezix on Dec 2, 2009 10:00:48 GMT -5
It occurs to me that Catinasuit has implemented the tie = no lynch ruleset. I have fundamental problems with this rule as it can be gamed by scum. In theory, shaggy is an alien, so I think his lynch will go through. However, I also see the benefits of a scummy Pleonast switching his vote at the last minute to push a tie. Sure, he would expose himself, but he's already under heavy suspicion, so squashing a lynch would be very much to scum's advantage. I invite someone to switch their vote to shaggy. If necessary, I'm willing to switch to Pleonast to assure a larger majority as well. I'll switch, I'm about 60-40 on the pleo/shaggy lynch. But better to just discourage any attempts to game the game. Vote: shaggy
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Day 5
Dec 2, 2009 12:58:23 GMT -5
Post by special on Dec 2, 2009 12:58:23 GMT -5
It occurs to me that Catinasuit has implemented the tie = no lynch ruleset. I have fundamental problems with this rule as it can be gamed by scum. In theory, shaggy is an alien, so I think his lynch will go through. However, I also see the benefits of a scummy Pleonast switching his vote at the last minute to push a tie. Sure, he would expose himself, but he's already under heavy suspicion, so squashing a lynch would be very much to scum's advantage. I invite someone to switch their vote to shaggy. If necessary, I'm willing to switch to Pleonast to assure a larger majority as well. The silence of Pleo is troublesome. I'd be willing to switch back as long as we can get it done in time and no one posts any untoward words which will block my access to the page
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Day 5
Dec 2, 2009 13:04:13 GMT -5
Post by special on Dec 2, 2009 13:04:13 GMT -5
It occurs to me that Catinasuit has implemented the tie = no lynch ruleset. I have fundamental problems with this rule as it can be gamed by scum. In theory, shaggy is an alien, so I think his lynch will go through. However, I also see the benefits of a scummy Pleonast switching his vote at the last minute to push a tie. Sure, he would expose himself, but he's already under heavy suspicion, so squashing a lynch would be very much to scum's advantage. I invite someone to switch their vote to shaggy. If necessary, I'm willing to switch to Pleonast to assure a larger majority as well. The silence of Pleo is troublesome. I'd be willing to switch back as long as we can get it done in time and no one posts any untoward words which will block my access to the page maybe not a good idea since there are less than 2 hours left and I'll be finishing lunch shortly
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Day 5
Dec 2, 2009 15:08:17 GMT -5
Post by CatInASuit on Dec 2, 2009 15:08:17 GMT -5
Day has ended, dusk post to follow soon.
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