|
Post by texcat on Dec 23, 2009 19:11:56 GMT -5
I am checking in, and must admit that I too am confused by Natlaw. :-)
I would have thought that severing connections as quickly as possible would help prevent us mislynching 2 townies instead of only 1, and would certainly help prevent 2 night kills. Maybe I'm just looking at the glass half-empty?
Does anyone have a clue how we are going to figure out who to vote for on day 1? This is even harder than the usual day 1, since the people we are voting for will not be voting until toMorrow.
|
|
|
Post by Inner Stickler on Dec 23, 2009 19:59:29 GMT -5
We know the hunters are linked and that they are not linked to each other. Ergo, the hunters are linked to townies. If a night townie is lynched, they may be connected to the day hunter and then a disastrous mislynch becomes a very equitable one for one trade. I don't know if I agree with it but it seems to me a valid strategy.
There's nothing restricting night townies from posting Today, as far as I can tell. I think everyone should participate in discussions as normal. Let's give the day townies something to chew over so they aren't shooting blindly, as it were.
|
|
Meeko
FGM
I raccoon it's time to play Mafia
Posts: 2,474
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Meeko on Dec 23, 2009 23:42:36 GMT -5
Confirming. Now that I know we are playing. Just checked the site to see the progress, and well, I'm already behind.
|
|
Meeko
FGM
I raccoon it's time to play Mafia
Posts: 2,474
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Meeko on Dec 23, 2009 23:52:14 GMT -5
/me points and laughs at meeko. Vote Coyote.
|
|
|
Post by Inner Stickler on Dec 24, 2009 0:22:00 GMT -5
Do you have a reason or are you just making a joke vote?
|
|
Natlaw
Snark
Natlaw is a Modron short and stout.
Posts: 740
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Natlaw on Dec 24, 2009 5:35:45 GMT -5
Wow. I'm here and I'm already confused by Natlaw. This might be a record. But probably not. So you're in the dark? hurhur I am checking in, and must admit that I too am confused by Natlaw. :-) I would have thought that severing connections as quickly as possible would help prevent us mislynching 2 townies instead of only 1, and would certainly help prevent 2 night kills. Maybe I'm just looking at the glass half-empty? Yeah, that is the big upside from severing especially since the odds for mislynching two townies is bigger than townie+hunter lynch. For Night One: 1/6 ~= 17% to lynch Dark Hunter+Town 1/6 ~= 17% to lynch the Dark Shiver 1/6 ~= 17% to lynch Town+Light Hunter 3/6 ~= 50% to lynch dual Town with a 1/6 ~= 17% chance the Shine prevents a dual lynch. In reality the hunter lynches will be not as likely since they'll be trying to prevent it. Back to severing or not (if possible), in my protect-the-Light-Diviner idea I would say also to server him Night One, while he investigates himself (if possible). That way you get the connection investigated and prevent future double kills of the confirmed people. If anything specifically is confusing ask! I guess I'll be placing a FoS and I guess the other Dark should do so as well. Some more moderator questions: Can we vote No Lynch? Or is it no lynch in case of a tie? If the Dark Hunter is killed, do we still get lynch-the-Dark-side Days (in which case I want to no lynch of course) or just lynch-the-Light-side Days?
|
|
|
Post by Sister Coyote on Dec 24, 2009 11:26:45 GMT -5
<font style="font-size: 12px;">Do you have a reason or are you just making a joke vote? I think he's just being Meeko. Oddly, I am unthreatened by this. <font style="font-size: 12px;">We know the hunters are linked and that they are not linked to each other. Ergo, the hunters are linked to townies. If a night townie is lynched, they may be connected to the day hunter and then a disastrous mislynch becomes a very equitable one for one trade. I don't know if I agree with it but it seems to me a valid strategy. But what if the hunter is linked to a shine, a gloom, or a diviner? Is it still then an equitable one-to-one trade? Do we lynch the shine, the gloom, or the light or dark diviner in the hopes of nailing their hunter counterpart? I don't have answers to this; I'm just asking because I am fumbling around in the dark trying to understand. (And Natlaw: I'm always in the Dark. Blockey definitely got that right...)
|
|
|
Post by Sister Coyote on Dec 24, 2009 11:27:00 GMT -5
Can has coding fail sigh.
|
|
Parzival
Mome Rath
Let's all strive to do our best today![on:forgot to log out][of:forgot to log in]
Posts: 201
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Parzival on Dec 24, 2009 12:42:06 GMT -5
One problem I see with Natlaw's plan is that a self-investigating Diviner can only reveal exactly as much information as a Hunter knows. Thus it's terribly easy to counterclaim. I don't think a Diviner can really provide much except in specific cases (e.g. by revealing who is going to be paired on a lynch). That said, a Diviner could self-investigate to protect themselves, but it again puts them in the same position as a Hunter and we would probably be better off lynching someone in that case.
It's an interesting dynamic that allows the Day side to talk fairly freely since we won't be lynched (yet). On the other hand there will be a time we have to defend our words, but there'll be a bit of space and knowledge in between. I slightly wonder about Natlaw being maybe a bit too eager to throw down analysis (and possibly guide discussion). That plus what I see as a flawed suggestion is almost, but not quite enough for me to vote. Call it a FOS if you like to keep track of such things.
|
|
Natlaw
Snark
Natlaw is a Modron short and stout.
Posts: 740
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Natlaw on Dec 24, 2009 14:01:36 GMT -5
One problem I see with Natlaw's plan is that a self-investigating Diviner can only reveal exactly as much information as a Hunter knows. Thus it's terribly easy to counterclaim. I don't think a Diviner can really provide much except in specific cases (e.g. by revealing who is going to be paired on a lynch). That said, a Diviner could self-investigate to protect themselves, but it again puts them in the same position as a Hunter and we would probably be better off lynching someone in that case. I read the Hunter role as only knowing who they are linked too, not what role they're connected to. The Diviners get the name, role and alignment according to the rules. Do the Hunters know the role of the player they are linked to or just the name?Even if they do know both and a counter-claim is easy, it's only worth it at lynch or lose. If a Hunter false claims a power role now we can spare a mislynch in case we lynch the wrong one first.
|
|
Meeko
FGM
I raccoon it's time to play Mafia
Posts: 2,474
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Meeko on Dec 24, 2009 14:26:02 GMT -5
Do you have a reason or are you just making a joke vote? A Mixed bag here. Immediately, it was a "joke vote" yes. But then, how far can one get on Day 1 from joke votes? for the most part, aren't all Day 1 votes the same? == Aren't all day 1 votes joke votes? Also, how does Day 1 work in this game set up ? Are there true omgus votes? Are there true OMGUS on OMGUS votes? I mean, I'm not sure how Coyote meant the points and laughs at meeko comment, but, you know it's, it's still with me so, But yeah, I am interested to see how this game plays out, it has a lot different with it, compared to *Regular* games.
|
|
|
Post by Sister Coyote on Dec 24, 2009 15:01:22 GMT -5
I was teasing you about being impatient about the game. That's absolutely all I meant.
|
|
Meeko
FGM
I raccoon it's time to play Mafia
Posts: 2,474
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Meeko on Dec 24, 2009 21:07:02 GMT -5
I am just going to be frank here.
I Wonder how this game will play out. Not in the sense of the final score, but in the sense of how in the world this vastly different set of rules will ""work"".
A great idea, -- Either insane or genius.
All Mafia games seem to turn the standard game on it's ear, this seems to be ten times the ear standing.
Coyote, you say you seem unthreatened by me. I am intrigued with playing in a non OMGUS on OMGUS space here with the rules. I feel there is ground here that will be lost if I don't continue down the path I am on currently.
In short, in spite of my vote on you, I am once want to say we are ok with each other, correct?
|
|
|
Post by Mister Blockey on Dec 25, 2009 1:00:09 GMT -5
no-lynch is allowed
There will still be light dark switches if one of the hunters is lynched. This is partly a measure of fairness to the surviving hunter.
Hunters only know the name of the player they're linked to.
I have no idea how well this game will work in mini-form. The setup is really best in a full (24 player, 12 light 12 dark form) I'm seriously running this just to get a look at the kinks and dynamics. Unlike other games I've done this is seriously alpha version 1 testing going on here.
|
|
Trepa Mayfield
FGM
Does Not Follow Directions
The only kind of panda worth preserving.
Posts: 989
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Trepa Mayfield on Dec 25, 2009 1:34:25 GMT -5
no-lynch is allowed There will still be light dark switches if one of the hunters is lynched. This is partly a measure of fairness to the surviving hunter. Hunters only know the name of the player they're linked to. I have no idea how well this game will work in mini-form. The setup is really best in a full (24 player, 12 light 12 dark form) I'm seriously running this just to get a look at the kinks and dynamics. Unlike other games I've done this is seriously alpha version 1 testing going on here. In other words, you have no clue how this is going to turn out.
|
|
|
Post by Inner Stickler on Dec 25, 2009 7:58:32 GMT -5
Now wait a minute. We have a splitter, a cop, a doc, 2 VTs and a scum on each side. What's to stop us from roleclaiming and lynching the doubles?
|
|
Parzival
Mome Rath
Let's all strive to do our best today![on:forgot to log out][of:forgot to log in]
Posts: 201
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Parzival on Dec 25, 2009 15:17:10 GMT -5
A mass claim doesn't guarantee a win if we lynch the wrong doubles; presumably the hunters will claim vanilla since there's more of those.
I see that the Diviner knows a bit more than the Hunters would, so I withdraw my suspicions of Natlaw. (Mass claim also kills any privileged info for the Diviner, which is another reason to avoid it. It might be workable later depending on who dies).
|
|
|
Post by Mister Blockey on Dec 26, 2009 11:16:09 GMT -5
I'm considering an extension due to the holidays. If you would like this say so, and tell me how many days.
|
|
|
Post by Sister Coyote on Dec 26, 2009 11:45:04 GMT -5
I wouldn't mind an extension. Meeko, we're fine. You know. Unless you turn up a hunter or something.
|
|
|
Post by BillMc on Dec 26, 2009 12:19:42 GMT -5
eek - didn't realised we had started, never mind the Day being almost over.
I think an extension for a couple of days, till tuesday?
|
|
|
Post by Mister Blockey on Dec 27, 2009 0:10:20 GMT -5
Til tuesday it is then.
|
|
Trepa Mayfield
FGM
Does Not Follow Directions
The only kind of panda worth preserving.
Posts: 989
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Trepa Mayfield on Dec 27, 2009 2:41:32 GMT -5
Thankee.
I am inclined to agree that the shivers should wait to split, since in addition to the possibility of hitting a scum with a townie, we would also be nerfing our shines if we let the shivers run loose.
|
|
|
Post by Inner Stickler on Dec 27, 2009 3:07:23 GMT -5
I realize you all are enjoying your Christmases but could we see some more talky talky? I'm going to be irritated if, on Tuesday, we lose two townies because Meeko joke voted.
|
|
|
Post by BillMc on Dec 27, 2009 4:39:43 GMT -5
Good game everyone! Let's start with the odds: -Worst case: D1: 8 connect town/2 unconnected (shivers)/2 hunter, a no hunter and also not connected to a hunter is lynched N1: 6c/2u/2h, hunter kill someone not protected and the connected one is not protected. Shiver sever both Hunters connections (so a failed lynch cannot take out a hunter) D2: 2c/4u/2h, another connected lynch N2: 4u/2h, hunters kill, nothing left to sever D3: 3u/2h, Lynch or Lose So we have two connected mislynches in the worst case. First question: Does the Night kill happen before the Shiver action?Is a mass claim worth it? No, we'll get three victim claims on each side and don't have enough mislynches to kill them all. But if some victims turn up dead, definitely should be considered. Note to Blockey: without Victims or other duplicate roles, wouldn't a mass claim break your game? Perhaps not because there are more Hunters as well.How about the Light Diviner claiming Today so he can be protected by the Shine and the Gloom? That way we got a sure investigation result Tomorrow. Unless the Gloom is lynched which can only happen if the Dark Hunter counter-claims him. What if both Diviners are linked to the Hunters? They (or anyone else linked to a Hunter) would be basically Night kill immune unless severed. If a Diviner investigates himself he basically confirms two for the price of one (himself unless counter-claimed and his linked partner). Can the Shivers chose not to sever?I think not severing might be the best action as the connections might lynch a Hunter in case of a town lynch and allows the Diviners to do their job. Enough for now . Well I've processed enough of the Christmas spirits for my brain to stand half a chance of understanding Natlaw's post and I agree with the odds. Basically on each side of the mirror we have - A Shiver (not linked to anyone) - A Doc (Shine/Gloom) - A Diviner (Cop) - A Hunter (Scum) - Two Vanilla Town - and one of the Doc/Cop/Vanilla is linked to the Hunter on the other side As I see it, we have three possible lynch scenarios toDay: - if the Dark Shiver is lynched, then theirs is the sole death[li]if the Dark Hunter is lynched, or the person connected to the Light Hunter is lynched, then there will be two deaths, one of which is scum. So we actually have a 2 in 6 chance of the lynch resulting in a Hunter death. That's a lot better odds for lynching scum on Day 1 than in any other game I've played. Albeit it is balanced by a townie also dying[li]otherwise we will lynch two connected townies
As it says in the first post, the Hunters know who they are connected to, but not the role. So there are two folks, apart from themselves, that the Hunters don't want lynched - and won't NK as it would result in a Hunter death too. So worst case is if the Shivers don't disconnect folk such that every death results in two:- There are two deaths on D1, and two more N1. So on D2, we would have 8 alive; 2 Hunters, 2 folks connected to Hunters and 4 Town - its then 50/50 of taking out a Hunter (and whoever they are linked to) with a D2 lynch. If we mislynch D2, the N2 the Hunters NK the remaining town pair, and D3 we are left with the two Hunters and the folk they are linked to. An interesting set up indeed.
|
|
|
Post by texcat on Dec 27, 2009 17:09:08 GMT -5
Will the hunters be notified if they are severed?
If the hunters are notified of the connection cut, it's definitely better for us all to stay connected. It will protect the 2 townies connected to them from night kills and will help protect them from mislynches. And it will give us the additional chance of finding a connected hunter. If the hunters have to guess whether they are still connected or not, it might be better to start severing. The 2 hunter-connected townies will still be relatively protected, and it will help prevent 2 mislynches every day.
I'm still not seeing anyone that stands out as even a really bad day 1 vote, but will keep checking back.
|
|
Meeko
FGM
I raccoon it's time to play Mafia
Posts: 2,474
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Meeko on Dec 27, 2009 19:46:00 GMT -5
I realize you all are enjoying your Christmases but could we see some more talky talky? I'm going to be irritated if, on Tuesday, we lose two townies because Meeko joke voted. I agree we need more "talky talky" as per my vote, if you can suggest someone better, please do so. Then again, I still don't think that standard mafia thinking is best for this set up.
|
|
|
Post by Red Skeezix on Dec 27, 2009 22:04:03 GMT -5
Yeah, I vote for an extension. Otherwise the day will end with no votes.
Sorry, I've been silent but I've been out of town w/o internet for 6 days.
|
|
Trepa Mayfield
FGM
Does Not Follow Directions
The only kind of panda worth preserving.
Posts: 989
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Trepa Mayfield on Dec 28, 2009 2:03:25 GMT -5
Vote: MHaye
Pressure vote, since he hasn't said anything yet.
|
|
Natlaw
Snark
Natlaw is a Modron short and stout.
Posts: 740
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Natlaw on Dec 28, 2009 4:55:46 GMT -5
The extension is fine with me. I am inclined to agree that the shivers should wait to split, since in addition to the possibility of hitting a scum with a townie, we would also be nerfing our shines if we let the shivers run loose. I guess you mean the Shine and the Gloom? I don't think they are 'nerfed' in the sense they get worse. Sure the odds they protect someone from a death-through-connection decreases but that isn't really relevant - whether the death is prevented through a severed link or a doctor protection is a win either way. Also if a Shiver (has to) claim the Shine/Gloom might get more efficient with more information how has been severed, although I can see that information useful to the Hunters as well. So a complete claim by a Shiver might not be the best. I do think severing hurts the Diviners (less connections to investigate). The town-hunter lynch thing canceled by the town-town it prevents (two town-hunter connections which hunter will try to avoid vs four town-town connections hunters will try to get). Then again hunters trying to avoid those might be a good clue to find them so that's another reason to keep them in the dark who have been severed.
|
|
|
Post by Red Skeezix on Dec 28, 2009 10:24:12 GMT -5
I think the shivers should hold off for a night unless a diviner comes up dead during the D1 lynch. Natlaw the strategy talk is interesting, and useful, but it's not getting us anywhere except closer to a no lynch. If a no lynch is desired, then we should vote no lynch. But, we seem to be running short on time. So in an effort to stir something up: Vote: Sister Coyote
|
|