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Post by NAF1138 on May 5, 2010 18:25:14 GMT -5
Last post.
What this means, for me at least, is that the Day for me effectively ends in about an hour.
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on May 5, 2010 18:32:27 GMT -5
I meant to say "less than 24 hours" which is precisely why you should be voting where your suspicions are and raking whoever else you want to rake over the coals in the body of your posts. Why keep the vote count unstable just to go through your manufactured bandwagon strategy?
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Post by NAF1138 on May 5, 2010 18:45:20 GMT -5
Because there is no accountability for the votes on luv, and zuma hasn't weighed in and neither has MHaye.
Yes, the Day is almost over. Yes, that sucks. But no I don't think it hurts much of anything since there isn't a lot of data you have to juggle right now anyway.
If there is more than one scum out there then I think that my voting for Shaggy, yet again, is a mistake, and I have to take the conservative view that there is another scum out there right now because if I don't and I am wrong then I am hurting the town. So I am looking for a potential second scum.
I don't plan to vote for shaggy again until another scum is caught or we are at three handed. That doesn't mean I don't think he is scummiest, what it means is that voting for shaggy isn't helping catch other potential scum.
So of the remaining people, I am now voting for the only other person I think is likely scummy.
If it helps I can post a list of who I think is scummy and how scummy I think they are.
Scummiest on top, least scummy on the bottom.
6. Shaggy 12. Zuma 4. Luv 2. Cookies 13. Peekercpa 10. ducduc/MHaye
I am voting for my #2 because I think voting for my #1 is actually the opposite of helpful right now.
Before my #2 was luv, it's now not. Things change quickly when there isn't much to go on.
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Merestil Haye
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Post by Merestil Haye on May 5, 2010 18:52:52 GMT -5
I've done a single reread, and separately a review of votes placed. When I looked at the final vote tally for Day 1, something went "ping". It's worth looking at the end-of-Day votecount. Final vote count. 3 : SisterCoyote [ Pleonast (064), Total Lost (074), Fisheroo (105)] 2 : Pleonast [Luvbwfc (005), Shaggy (099)] 1 : DarkCookies [ Storyteller (061)] 1 : Storyteller [Special Ed (070)] 1 : Total Lost [NAF1138 (074)] 1 : zuma [DarkCookies (086)] Normally I would expect a Mafiate to be joining in the bussing of Sister Coyote, but we know (because all three who voted for Sister C are dead and revealed Town) that that was not the case. Also, since the lynch was decided by three votes to two , with the third coming very late, this makes me suspicious of the Pleo voters, especially Shaggy. When Shaggy placed his vote for Pleo, it created a tie. A Mafia-aligned Shaggy would have two reasons for creating a tie in this situation; SisterCoyote was Mafia-aligned, and Pleo had soft-claimed a power role (and thus getting him lynched would be a major coup for the Mafia, who knew he was not on their side.) Since that caught my attention, I paid special attention to Shaggy's votes since. In Day 2 he voted for Fisheroo. A nice safe, go-nowhere vote. He explains why he's no longer suspicious of Pleo (because he say's the game is ' too small for the Mafia to bus on Day 1." That could be interpreted as a "Mafia wouldn't do that" post. Day 3 sees him place the third vote for Fisheroo. I did look askance at this when I saw it, because not only was it a third vote, it also opened a significant gap between Fisheroo and Shaggy himself. (When the vote leader has two votes, anyone - such as Shaggy - on 1 vote is at risk of suddenly finding their neck in the noose. When the gap stretches to 3 to 1, the risk is substantially reduced. This, however, also made me suspicious of NAF, just a little bit. The way he floated the third vote business without actually committing himself rang a faint alarm in my head. Shaggy's vote Today is on Luvbwfc. At the time he placed it there were already three votes on him, but two of those have shifted away. NAF's votes, however, have been racing all over the shop. He's voted for Shaggy, then Luvbwc, then zuma, all the while claiming that Shaggy is the player he is most suspicious of. As much as I'd like to sleep on the question, I can't guarantee getting a vote in tomorrow before Idle ring down the curtain, as I do voluntary work on Thursdays. Thus I have to commit now. Vote: Vote Shaggy Shaggy is the person I am most suspicious of. NAF is in second place right now, and will definitely attract some scrutiny if Shaggy turns up Town.
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Post by NAF1138 on May 5, 2010 19:06:18 GMT -5
Well if someone else sees shaggy as scummy as well, I take back what I said about not voting for him.
Unvote: zuma
Vote: shaggy
Question for you MHaye, what do you mean about "The way he floated the third vote business without actually committing himself?"
Had I not, up until that point, been shouting enough about how much I wanted to lynch shaggy? Also, I believe I ended the Day with a vote on him.
Or do I misunderstand you?
Other than that, why am I your number 2? Vague doesn't help us right now.
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Post by zuma on May 5, 2010 19:24:38 GMT -5
mhaye, I do believe that shaggy's pleo vote is one that raises suspicions, especially as scum had obviously known one of their own was in trouble day 1.
I also thought I posted last night, but I must have screwed something up. I mentioned that I felt that the Total Lost nightkill on night 1 is something that we should not necessarily forget about.
It was either:
1. Dumb luck, in which case we'd unfortunately not gain any insight to
2. One of the more active players here (there aren't many left now) because I'd think that it would be one of the more active players who would spend the time to ferret out detective clues. Yes, it's possible that one could be a relative day-lurker and be active at night, but more likely not. NAF and peeker would probably be the two I would look at if this were the case
3. Someone who had reason to kill Total based on not much in-game information, which feeds into NAF's shaggy theory.
I also was questioning why NAF thought duc was town, based no information other than what fisheroo had to say. I also didn't really understand why fisheroo was so sure either, and she turned out to be town. Not a huge deal but I'd like NAF to address it.
Combined with mhaye's day 1 voting analysis, and the total night 1 kill:
vote: shaggy[/color]
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Post by zuma on May 5, 2010 19:29:07 GMT -5
I also was questioning why NAF thought duc was town, based no information other than what fisheroo had to say. I also didn't really understand why fisheroo was so sure either, and she turned out to be town. Not a huge deal but I'd like NAF to address it. Upon re-read I noticed you already adressed this in post #58, so disregard this.
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Post by NAF1138 on May 5, 2010 19:29:47 GMT -5
I thought I had.
I fish said that duc left the game because it wasn't for him. I find that people who are scum their first game tend not to have that sort of reaction. I have seen scum wander off, and I have seen newbies wander off, but I have never seen a newbie scum wander off because of boredom. (I have seen one newbie scum wander off but that was not because of boredom but because life happened and they forgot about the game until after.)
Being scum, especially your first time out, is exciting enough to carry you through a few Days.
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Post by NAF1138 on May 5, 2010 19:30:41 GMT -5
And with that, I think I am off for the rest of the Day. I will try to check in again tonight if possible, and maybe I can get on for a minute before I leave for work in the morning, but I wouldn't count on either.
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Post by shaggy on May 5, 2010 19:58:29 GMT -5
I've done a single reread, and separately a review of votes placed. When I looked at the final vote tally for Day 1, something went "ping". It's worth looking at the end-of-Day votecount. Final vote count. 3 : SisterCoyote [ Pleonast (064), Total Lost (074), Fisheroo (105)] 2 : Pleonast [Luvbwfc (005), Shaggy (099)] 1 : DarkCookies [ Storyteller (061)] 1 : Storyteller [Special Ed (070)] 1 : Total Lost [NAF1138 (074)] 1 : zuma [DarkCookies (086)] Normally I would expect a Mafiate to be joining in the bussing of Sister Coyote, but we know (because all three who voted for Sister C are dead and revealed Town) that that was not the case. Also, since the lynch was decided by three votes to two , with the third coming very late, this makes me suspicious of the Pleo voters, especially Shaggy. When Shaggy placed his vote for Pleo, it created a tie. A Mafia-aligned Shaggy would have two reasons for creating a tie in this situation; SisterCoyote was Mafia-aligned, and Pleo had soft-claimed a power role (and thus getting him lynched would be a major coup for the Mafia, who knew he was not on their side.) Since that caught my attention, I paid special attention to Shaggy's votes since. In Day 2 he voted for Fisheroo. A nice safe, go-nowhere vote. He explains why he's no longer suspicious of Pleo (because he say's the game is ' too small for the Mafia to bus on Day 1." That could be interpreted as a "Mafia wouldn't do that" post. Day 3 sees him place the third vote for Fisheroo. I did look askance at this when I saw it, because not only was it a third vote, it also opened a significant gap between Fisheroo and Shaggy himself. (When the vote leader has two votes, anyone - such as Shaggy - on 1 vote is at risk of suddenly finding their neck in the noose. When the gap stretches to 3 to 1, the risk is substantially reduced. This, however, also made me suspicious of NAF, just a little bit. The way he floated the third vote business without actually committing himself rang a faint alarm in my head. Shaggy's vote Today is on Luvbwfc. At the time he placed it there were already three votes on him, but two of those have shifted away. NAF's votes, however, have been racing all over the shop. He's voted for Shaggy, then Luvbwc, then zuma, all the while claiming that Shaggy is the player he is most suspicious of. As much as I'd like to sleep on the question, I can't guarantee getting a vote in tomorrow before Idle ring down the curtain, as I do voluntary work on Thursdays. Thus I have to commit now. Vote: Vote Shaggy [/color] Shaggy is the person I am most suspicious of. NAF is in second place right now, and will definitely attract some scrutiny if Shaggy turns up Town.[/quote] So essentially your whole case is just a 3rd vote theory? Not posting, not specific voting, just time when i voted.... Well I have never bought into it and always felt it never worked, and if you want to miss lynch me to prove that, go ahead. Since sorry to disapoint any of you 3 but I am not scum.
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on May 5, 2010 20:52:39 GMT -5
I have also raised doubts about NAF's viewpoint on ducduc, and his responses do nothing to make those doubts go away, but that is more of a point of not agreeing that anyone should consider Mhaye as "most likely town" and less about suspecting NAF for thinking so. Also, even if NAF happens to be right about both Shaggy and ducduc/Mhaye, assuming that leads to a Town victory, that victory would ring a bit hollow to me, boiling down to what could very well be just a coincidence seen through the lense of the old 3rd vote meme and completely metagame logic. I rather dislike the whole 3rd vote thing from a gameplay perspective, and heartily encourage townies to make the 3rd vote as often as possible until it is unseated.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on May 5, 2010 21:37:54 GMT -5
Shaggy - 3 votes (Mhaye, NAF, Zuma) Luv - 2 votes (Peeker, Shaggy) NAF - 1 vote (Cookies)
About 10 hours left.
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Post by NAF1138 on May 5, 2010 21:45:59 GMT -5
I have also raised doubts about NAF's viewpoint on ducduc, and his responses do nothing to make those doubts go away, but that is more of a point of not agreeing that anyone should consider Mhaye as "most likely town" and less about suspecting NAF for thinking so. Also, even if NAF happens to be right about both Shaggy and ducduc/Mhaye, assuming that leads to a Town victory, that victory would ring a bit hollow to me, boiling down to what could very well be just a coincidence seen through the lense of the old 3rd vote meme and completely metagame logic. I rather dislike the whole 3rd vote thing from a gameplay perspective, and heartily encourage townies to make the 3rd vote as often as possible until it is unseated. Why? It works. It has been show time and again that it works. It's not foolproof and it doesn't work if it is at the forefront of anyone's mind, but it does work with a record that is a good deal better than average. Should it be the only reason to lynch someone? This late in the game, no. But it's not the only reason I am voting for shaggy. The majority of the reason for my vote on shaggy is his response to my initial vote on him which I find to be consistent with reactions I have seen from scum in the past. I have said that repeatedly. I do catch scum fairly often using my methods no matter what you think of them. My track record is better than random too.
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on May 5, 2010 23:38:05 GMT -5
But if townies go out of their way to place third votes, it will cease being true, hence my grass-roots movement to disrupt it. That is how ready I am to be done with this game. I'm plotting socialist revolutions from your 3 vote tyranny.
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on May 5, 2010 23:39:28 GMT -5
NETA I'm plotting socialist revolutions from your 3 vote tyranny as an escapist coping mechanism.
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Post by luvbwfc on May 6, 2010 0:02:15 GMT -5
i will go on record as
vote shaggy
I liked MHaye's analysis.
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Post by NAF1138 on May 6, 2010 0:09:16 GMT -5
NETA I'm plotting socialist revolutions from your 3 vote tyranny as an escapist coping mechanism. Ha! If I would stop getting killed on night 1 in every other game I sign up for I would be right there with you.
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Merestil Haye
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Post by Merestil Haye on May 6, 2010 1:45:32 GMT -5
So essentially your whole case is just a 3rd vote theory? Not posting, not specific voting, just time when i voted.... Not hardly. It does work, but onluy if the players are no tthinking about it. If that was the only pointer, I wouldn't be voting for you. As it is, it's not even the first. The first is the way that you tied the vote on Day 1. That's what drew my attention to you.
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Merestil Haye
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Post by Merestil Haye on May 6, 2010 1:58:59 GMT -5
Question for you MHaye, what do you mean about "The way he floated the third vote business without actually committing himself?" NAF I was thinking of post D03.078 when I said that. It struck me as vague and noncommital. I agree that you had been voting for Shaggy for some time; the first vote you put on Shaggy was in D02.016. But that was your infamous "I'll vote but won't say why" vote, which isn't exactly a model of clear explanation of your actual reasons for voting. That's why I'm suspicious of you, although my level of suspicion will be greatly affected by learning what Shaggy is (and he has four of seven votes at the moment). DarkCookies, Luvbwfc, zuma and peekercpa are all in a mass with little to separate them in third place. I'll devote some time to them as well. Unfortunately since Idle said that the Dusk is at 8am, and he is (iirc) on Mountain time, that means 3pm or so BST, at which time I will be at my volunteer job. I won't be able to post again Today.
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on May 6, 2010 2:34:14 GMT -5
No real point in staying on NAF all by myself.
Unvote: NAF Vote: Shaggy
For his role in the Day 1 tie, which is a damn surreal thing to base a Day 4 vote on, but I just work here.
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Post by zuma on May 9, 2010 6:07:42 GMT -5
I mentioned that I felt that the Total Lost nightkill on night 1 is something that we should not necessarily forget about. It was either: 1. Dumb luck, in which case we'd unfortunately not gain any insight to 2. One of the more active players here (there aren't many left now) because I'd think that it would be one of the more active players who would spend the time to ferret out detective clues. Yes, it's possible that one could be a relative day-lurker and be active at night, but more likely not. NAF and peeker would probably be the two I would look at if this were the case 3. Someone who had reason to kill Total based on not much in-game information, which feeds into NAF's shaggy theory. I still stand by this and if the total kill was dumb luck, we're probably boned anyway. I can't see voting peeker over NAF at this point, really.
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