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Post by Pleonast on Jul 13, 2010 20:53:34 GMT -5
Post your spoiled commentary here.
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Post by Pleonast on Jul 16, 2010 10:02:37 GMT -5
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Post by Pleonast on Jul 19, 2010 15:31:01 GMT -5
My pre-game analysis.
I keep ratcheting up the difficulty against the Town with successive version of Conspiracy. Our players are simply to good when playing Town.
The Undead will win this mid-game unless all the other factions work together to stop them. The Necromancer's Zombie protection will keep him alive until then. The Wolves have the best chance of find him, since they are the largest single bloc in the game. They'll have to find the Necro and then beat him down with lynches, Night-kills and blocks (Vicar or Cabal). Once the Zombie count is low, he'll be less of a threat.
The Town will have to win by forming a large confirmed pool. With the Witches, Freemasons, Seer and Vicar, this should be fairly easy. The hard part will be maintaining control of the lynch.
The Cabal can win by sneaking one of themselves into the confirmed pool. They get three tries. The Town can stop this by being sufficiently paranoid about recruitment to double check the confirmed pool. There info on role distribution means they are the ultimate balancer in this game. They have the info and the means to take down whichever faction is very close to winning.
The Wolves are in the toughest spot. I've given them large numbers plus a pay-back kill so that they can make 2 Town for 1 Wolf trades. I hope that's enough.
I think the odds are fair as to which faction will win, but if I had to rank from most to least likely, I'd say: 1) Undead, 2) Cabal, 3) Town, 4) Wolves.
Anyone else have thoughts?
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jul 19, 2010 21:26:35 GMT -5
I've never been good at figuring balance of games out of the gun. But it'll be interesting to see how the necromancer fares this game since in 2 and 3 they were eliminated early. The undead were underpowered the last two outings, so giving them that boost will be good.
But I think Town actually has a harder job than wolves. Because they only have the lynch with which to do kills, and Wolves have a history of concentrating on taking out town, which is not as useful this time around. (But since the vamp will kill them, there is incentive to not shoot at non-town.)
Should be interesting, though, particularly if the necro gets exposed.
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Post by CatInASuit on Jul 20, 2010 3:09:48 GMT -5
This game looks as though it could be very short and very bloody, given we could have up to 4 kills a night, if a Wolf gets lynched every Day. The town have always managed to pull out a win in the game and ratcheting up the ante is a good idea. The Special power for the vicar is helpful, but helps all the groups except the undead. A bit unfair on the town perhaps as all the other special powers only assist the individual groups. It interesting you have given the town a lot of investigative roles but no real way of removing people other than the lynch. I don't think the Necromancer power is going to help that much, especially if exposed early. Everyone will be gunning for them. But if acting as a focal point and allowing the other vamps to whittle numbers down for a while, it could work. The wolves need that kind of number of players because they have been sorely stuffed in the other games. As the normal scum faction, they still need a couple alive at end game to stand a chance. The Cabal could go either way. Then again if they all survive to the end and all become vigilantes or vampires on one Night, the result could be truly horrific. I think you should have added the proviso that only one Cabal member at a time can use the secret power. Overall, this time if all the scum claimed truthfully, the town is dead. Won't happen, but I can dream. The Cabal I think will be more town aligned than usual, but an early hit on their numbers and they are in serious trouble remembering the first game when they had all died after Night 3. I'm looking forward to this.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jul 20, 2010 14:11:30 GMT -5
Woohoo! I'm a zombie!
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Post by Pleonast on Jul 20, 2010 14:12:22 GMT -5
I was hoping you didn't mind.
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Post by CatInASuit on Jul 20, 2010 14:48:58 GMT -5
It's a good start to the game and at least it provides a Day 1 talking point.
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Post by Pleonast on Jul 20, 2010 15:41:42 GMT -5
This is worth discussing: Side Note: I don't think the choices should have been made public, or it should have been a one shot deal. If this works, I'm fairly certain that the practice of allowing requests will end (and should end). Even if it doesn't work, I still question the practice. I don't see the problem. Players can request whatever they like or nothing at all. There doesn't need to be any connection between their requests from previous games and the current one. One could play some sort of meta-WIFOM game based on previous requests, but I don't think it will be fruitful in the long run. Also, I think the ability to influence the role one gets is fun for the players. It's something that can only be done in an open rules set like this one. I think our group is too stuck in closed setups. Other opinions?
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jul 20, 2010 17:03:31 GMT -5
Personally I don't see a problem at all with allowing players control over their roles.
As far as making it public, it gets more complicated. Note that not a single one of sachertorte's three favorite lynch candidates is town. Their requests were similar this game to the last game as well. Kudos to sachertorte for bringing it up.
And it's not as if the players from last game weren't aware that their choices from it were made public, so the onus was on them to take that into consideration this time around.
Now, the argument can be made that maybe it wasn't fair that they didn't know at the beginning of last game that their decisions would be made public and could be used against them this game, but regardless of which faction they got this time, that would hurt that faction for them to get lynched/killed.
So sachertorte is using a far from airtight plan, especially if he takes it all the way to lynch. It'll work out well for Town, but the correlation amounts to a strong data point rather than a compelling case. But sachertorte is also not usually impetuous in his voting choices. He's presented a great discussion topic which should establish a good number of datapoints for Day 1. I give it even money that he'll actually end up with a vote on one of his preferred three at the end of the Day, and it'll hinge more upon people's reactions to the point he brings up than the actual point itself.
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Post by Pleonast on Jul 20, 2010 17:18:48 GMT -5
He's presented a great discussion topic which should establish a good number of datapoints for Day 1. Exactly. sach sent me a PM before posting, basically asking if it was kosher to bring up. Being a non-interventionist moderator, my answer was "that'll jumpstart discussion". I see nphase has brought up the traditional argument against meta-arguments: let's not. That'd be the tact I'd take too, as a player.
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Post by Pleonast on Jul 20, 2010 18:54:59 GMT -5
Ha! Idle is doing about what I'd do in the same circumstance. I'll bet he claims to be the Scotsman if pushed. Kind leaves the other Cabalists screwed for claims, though. Unless he claims to be Cabalist, which would explain the extra info.
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Post by CatInASuit on Jul 21, 2010 2:47:45 GMT -5
That is a risky but really bold play from Idle Thoughts and quite possibly a game winner on Day 1.
For one, it has absolutely nailed down what roles the Wolves and Undead can claim. Anyone not on Idle's list is likely to get lynched to prove the point.
And that is just what the Cabal need. They only need one of them to survive to the end with the Witches dead, so Scotsman is an ideal role for the Cabal as the Night killers won't touch them for fear of being outed. The Last Cabal members claims Scotsman and one survives to the end. The only problem is that with so many deaths possible on each Night, the Cabal could be wiped out in one go before any of them get a chance to claim Scotsman.
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Post by Pleonast on Jul 21, 2010 10:50:44 GMT -5
The other Cabal are not happy with Idle. I don't think any of them yet realize that the best plan is for someone not Idle to claim Scotsman. That way there's no need to explain how Idle the Scotsman came by the info.
They should plan to sacrifice Idle (maybe as a Vig to take out a Witch once they find one) and let one of the others pretend to be the Scotsman. That could win the game for them.
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Post by CatInASuit on Jul 22, 2010 7:06:43 GMT -5
I can't wait to see Honest Moley's reaction when he finds out about eureka.
This is why having new players in a game is always a good idea.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jul 22, 2010 8:44:31 GMT -5
I can't wait to see Honest Moley's reaction when he finds out about eureka. This is why having new players in a game is always a good idea. Yeah, I think he should be forced to write in limerick anyway, because obviously no one's going to lynch a claimed witch should it come to the point where she claims. And no scum is probably going to be stupid enough to counterclaim.
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Post by CatInASuit on Jul 22, 2010 9:06:35 GMT -5
Yeah, I think he should be forced to write in limerick anyway, because obviously no one's going to lynch a claimed witch should it come to the point where she claims. And no scum is probably going to be stupid enough to counterclaim. Actually, a counterclaim is not a bad idea from the wolves seeing as people tend to believe the second claimant over the first and a sacrifice to out two witches is a real boon to the three scum sides. Plus the wolves would get a rage kill as well if they did decide to lynch the wolf.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jul 22, 2010 9:29:02 GMT -5
Yeah, I think he should be forced to write in limerick anyway, because obviously no one's going to lynch a claimed witch should it come to the point where she claims. And no scum is probably going to be stupid enough to counterclaim. Actually, a counterclaim is not a bad idea from the wolves seeing as people tend to believe the second claimant over the first and a sacrifice to out two witches is a real boon to the three scum sides. Plus the wolves would get a rage kill as well if they did decide to lynch the wolf. Hmmm...good point. Hadn't thought of it from that standpoint.
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Post by Pleonast on Jul 22, 2010 15:51:24 GMT -5
Now IDLE THOUGHTS and the extra information list... I'm just wondering on the motives of revealing it so early . This is a strange comment. Revealing the list of roles in the game is a very pro-Town action. If correct, any false claim is either going to be obvious because the role isn't in the game, or open to counter-claim. The motives for revealing it are to appear to be pro-Town. It's quite reasonable to question the truthfulness of the list, but the motive is quite clear.
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Post by CatInASuit on Jul 23, 2010 7:33:40 GMT -5
The biggest problem a town has is lack of information. Revealing the game's role setup is very much in the interests of the town.
It will probably go quiet now for the weekend, but Monday and Tuesday should be hectic with probably 3 or 4 claims.
The lynch requirement is going to cause lots of fun as everyoen tries to be town aligned to get a majority lynch. In honesty, we shouldn't see a Wolf lynched in this game without a reveal because having 7 players in a block should be able to swing a lynch train if done early enough.
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Post by Pleonast on Jul 23, 2010 10:33:46 GMT -5
The lynch requirement is going to cause lots of fun as everyoen tries to be town aligned to get a majority lynch. In honesty, we shouldn't see a Wolf lynched in this game without a reveal because having 7 players in a block should be able to swing a lynch train if done early enough. That was my intent in balancing this setup. The Town is made up of more or less confirmable roles, but lack the numbers to control the lynch. I'm sure storyteller will complain about that, but I think it works out to be fair. We'll see.
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Post by CatInASuit on Jul 23, 2010 14:27:36 GMT -5
That was my intent in balancing this setup. The Town is made up of more or less confirmable roles, but lack the numbers to control the lynch. I'm sure storyteller will complain about that, but I think it works out to be fair. We'll see. This would work in general apart from one situation which Idle Thoughts has actually mitigated. If all the scum were to come out, they would control the lynch completely and the town would be doomed. But they wont, of course
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Post by Pleonast on Jul 23, 2010 15:31:38 GMT -5
In the case of a mass claim, things will be messy, but the Cabal and Town should be voting with the same intent about 90% of the time.
It'd be fun if an early mass claim was tried early in a Conspiracy game. I try to make it balanced even if the Town pushes that tactic. The actual play will be very different, though.
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Post by CatInASuit on Jul 24, 2010 15:29:38 GMT -5
A good point raised that the two vampires are unstoppable killing machines bar the lynch. If I was playing the vicar, I would out myself at this point because a bad cross kill from the wolves and the three non-undead factions are in trouble.
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Post by Pleonast on Jul 26, 2010 14:23:08 GMT -5
Looks like it's going to be a rush at the end of the Day. No one is close to the vote minimum. The townies (and those trying to look Townie) really need to be more proactive. I think they've forgotten the fact that every player will make some sort of role claim.
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Post by CatInASuit on Jul 27, 2010 0:00:06 GMT -5
I went back over the possible truthful mass claim and if it did occur the Vicar gives the town a real advantage by taking out the Vampires and turning them Vigilante. ;D
This is bearing all the hallmarks of a Day 1 clusterfuck. The biggest problem with Conspiracy was always settling on someone you are prepared to lynch despite the role claim. I'm betting scum on the block choose one of the less provable roles from Idle T's list. Of course, none of them are going to pick something not on the list.
One quick question. If the Necromancer is attacked multiple times during the night by different people, does that burn off multiple zombies or does it, as I expect it to, only count as one attack and only burn off 1 zombie.
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Post by Pleonast on Jul 27, 2010 11:25:00 GMT -5
One quick question. If the Necromancer is attacked multiple times during the night by different people, does that burn off multiple zombies or does it, as I expect it to, only count as one attack and only burn off 1 zombie. The latter. Multiple attacks "collide" so that only one goes through.
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Post by CatInASuit on Jul 27, 2010 12:37:58 GMT -5
I'll say this, Idle Thoughts is really going for it.
With the bonus of two witches and a freemason being outed, he may even live a few days longer than expected as they will have to be killed off first.
Pleonast: If the other two Cabal both take Witch at the same time, do they get the protection ability for one Night only?
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Post by Pleonast on Jul 27, 2010 12:48:59 GMT -5
Pleonast: If the other two Cabal both take Witch at the same time, do they get the protection ability for one Night only? (You don't have to color questions here. ) A Cabalist disguised as a Witch can either investigate or protect. A second Cabalist has the same choice. So they could double-protect. It's powerful, to make up for their low numbers.
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Post by Pleonast on Jul 27, 2010 12:52:14 GMT -5
Vicar Capt Pinkies hasn't submitted an action yet. That will give the Necro another freebie Zombie.
I sent him a PM here and on Giraffe board.
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