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Post by special on Aug 19, 2010 18:19:02 GMT -5
Did I post so much gibberish that my teammates didn't believe me that Pinkies is the Vicar?
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Post by CatInASuit on Aug 20, 2010 7:13:28 GMT -5
This could be a bad Night for the wolves given the current suggested actions and a possible surprise if all Deaths go through.
Looks like tomorrow is going to have a nice easy lynch and at least slow the death rate. I wonder if they will throw out a call to role claim as well, because that would probably screw over all the scum factions.
The undead still have a good shot at this but I think the town may pull this out. Depends if anyone hits the other witch by accident.
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Post by Pleonast on Aug 20, 2010 14:36:09 GMT -5
Two Undead are found, although I'm not sure how the Wolves will want to get FlyingCow result out. Too bad story missed getting his message out.
And the Cabal cross-fire into the Wolves. That single misstep has hurt both of them and helped the Town. I think the Wolves are finished, unless a lot of luck goes their way. The Cabal has a chance, but it's iffy. The Undead are in a good spot, if the Necro can make a decent false claim.
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Post by Inner Stickler on Aug 21, 2010 0:15:41 GMT -5
I really hate the cabal's masking power. Now that I know it's been used once and is in the collective mind of the mafia group I'll never trust solitary 'confirmed' town again.
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Post by CatInASuit on Aug 23, 2010 6:46:55 GMT -5
So, are the wolves going to spill the beans on the other vampire or hope for the best?
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Post by Pleonast on Aug 23, 2010 10:24:41 GMT -5
I really hate the cabal's masking power. Now that I know it's been used once and is in the collective mind of the mafia group I'll never trust solitary 'confirmed' town again. You shouldn't, especially in a game that explicitly allows recruitment.
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Post by Pleonast on Aug 23, 2010 14:15:43 GMT -5
We're now at 6 Town vs 2 each of Wolf, Undead and Cabal, nominally a close game.
Undead still have the advantage, but they could be beaten with a little coordination among the other factions. storyteller must be regretting not exposing his plan. Choices made ToNight will finalize who wins, I think.
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Post by CatInASuit on Aug 24, 2010 8:01:23 GMT -5
Well the wolves could pull off a twofer tonight. I think duvsie should make a town kill and announce FCoD as a vamp. That way you get an easy lynch tomorrow.
Identifying the Necro should now be fairly easy, but I can't wait to see what happens when the try to kill him. With 4/5 zombies it is going to take a while and will allow the wolves some free kills at night not to mention the cabal needing to block the Necro.
This could actually become Diplomacy like at the end game.
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Post by Pleonast on Aug 24, 2010 10:22:39 GMT -5
I'll probably switch to 24-hour Days and Nights if they find the Necro before he wins.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Aug 24, 2010 13:00:45 GMT -5
Any idea why Pinkies is blessing Idle? I would think choosing a town role more dangerous to scum to protect would be better. (Unless pinkies actually realizes that Idle isn't what he seems, which is doubtful.)
But then again, I wouldn't be blessing to protect from night kill at this point anyway. I'd be blessing to try to nail the undead.
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Post by Pleonast on Aug 24, 2010 13:29:26 GMT -5
He gave no indication in his PM.
I'm not sure why. As the holder of the Town secret power, he could realize that Idle's secret information is not Townie.
Interestingly, with Flying targeting the Vicar and the Cabal thinking of blocking duvsie, there may be no kills ToNight. Very helpful for everyone not Undead.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Aug 24, 2010 17:02:23 GMT -5
I'm not sure why. As the holder of the Town secret power, he could realize that Idle's secret information is not Townie. True, but why not come out with it then? The only side the Vicar is a threat to is the side that can't touch him, so it's not as if he puts himself in danger by claiming.
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Post by Pollux Oil on Aug 24, 2010 18:04:57 GMT -5
WHY IS FCOD TARGETING PINKIES?
AHHHHHHHHHH.
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Post by CatInASuit on Aug 25, 2010 9:48:03 GMT -5
Why is no-one targeting a witch. It's the only way for a wolf/undead to stay alive otherwise once they are dead, the town will just lynch through the unknown players to kill off the Cabal. It means the town needs to have another scum left alive.
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Post by Pleonast on Aug 25, 2010 12:07:21 GMT -5
I think some Night killer expressed that they did not want to do the Cabal's dirty work by killing a Witch. Also, targeting a Witch means taking a chance that the kill will fail.
Of course, I think the Night killers have completely ignored/forgotten the info about the Vicar.
Cat, while there are two Witches alive, the Town doesn't need to kill off the Cabal. I think this is the longest the Witches have survived in a Conspiracy game. The Town might pull this off after all.
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Post by Pleonast on Aug 25, 2010 12:46:44 GMT -5
duvsie's reveal should shake things up.
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Post by Pleonast on Aug 25, 2010 12:50:36 GMT -5
And FlyingCow has switched their target to Moley. No reason stated, but I think it's to set up duvsie as the Vampire.
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Post by Pleonast on Aug 25, 2010 16:08:43 GMT -5
sach has solved the role distribution, except for the hidden Cabalist, but that doesn't matter with two living Witches. Town can win this. If Pinkies is on the ball, they can win quickly.
Otherwise, it'll be a slog of peeling off Zombies until the Necro is killed. Lots of space for the Wolves and Cabal to double-cross the Town, so we'll have to play it out.
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Post by special on Aug 25, 2010 18:20:16 GMT -5
Why did Duvsie target Blockey? Was it not revealed in game that he investigated as Freemason? which means he could be Omega? Or is that spoiled thread PIS?
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Post by special on Aug 25, 2010 19:10:38 GMT -5
oh, that's what I get for not following along.= or paying close attention
Never mind
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Post by Pollux Oil on Aug 25, 2010 19:18:31 GMT -5
So close to winning. Sigh. I think after this set-up, it's almost implausible for Town to not win at Conspiracy.
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Post by special on Aug 25, 2010 19:40:45 GMT -5
So close to winning. Sigh. I think after this set-up, it's almost implausible for Town to not win at Conspiracy. Maybe a game with just 1 Town, a Scotsman?
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Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 26, 2010 10:32:36 GMT -5
Huh. Also, whoa. Also, I am singularly impressed with Idle Thoughts play here. Frankly, we all were stupid from the start. Idle's too smart to have done the things he did.
But I'll tell you this right now: sachertorte is going to be furious about Idle's role.
I absolutely do not understand why Pinkies never described, or at least mentioned, his secret power. The Town would have been on to Idle ages ago. Very weird.
Seems like the undead can't win. Assuming FCoD is lynched the Undead cannot reduce the number of their enemies in any way, and I doubt the Wolves will kill while there is a danger of the Undead winning. So it'll be, as you say, a long hard slog while Town picks off zombies. Eventually, the wolves will start killing again, but they have virtually no chance of winning, either.
It's going to be a Town win, and it's going to take a long, long, LONG time. I get why the mechanism is there, Pleo, and I don't think it's unfair or unbalanced, but I do think it's kind of unfun.
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Post by Pleonast on Aug 26, 2010 10:33:10 GMT -5
So close to winning. Sigh. I think after this set-up, it's almost implausible for Town to not win at Conspiracy. Well, the Cabal did make a huge mistake by killing a Wolf instead of a Witch, thereby making it very hard for either of them to win. And the Town hasn't won yet. They will have to lynch the last Vampire and the Necro, who has 6 lives now. The Wolves will probably knock off a life or two, but at some point they may try something else. Even without knowledge of the Necro's secret power (or the Vicar's ), I think the Town's best play is to lynch the Vampire. They need to stop that Night kill.
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Post by Pleonast on Aug 26, 2010 10:36:13 GMT -5
It's going to be a Town win, and it's going to take a long, long, LONG time. I get why the mechanism is there, Pleo, and I don't think it's unfair or unbalanced, but I do think it's kind of unfun. To be honest, I didn't expect the Necro to last so long. They usually get caught in the crossfire. I also expected the the Vicar to be more effective. Oh, as to unfun--I think it will a lot of fun when then lynch the Necro and get a Zombie instead. ;D
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Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 26, 2010 10:48:30 GMT -5
Well, it might be fun for you, and for everyone in here. But in game, I think it will lead to loss of interest once it becomes clear what has to be done.
All in all, an interesting setup, and perhaps as balanced as it could possibly be. I like what you did with the Cabal and the Undead. While your explanation for what you did with the Wolf power is fair enough, I guess, the central problem for the Wolves is that the ruleset discourages killing. Wolves that kill are risking too many things. Vampires can kill with impunity and not be killed (in this setup, literally, the Vampires could not be Night killed and neither, in practice, could the Necro. In essence, you made the entire Undead team invincible to Night kills!). But the Wolves not only didn't have this immunity, they also could be screwed in two different ways every single time they killed - with three detectives, every single Wolf kill was likely to be investigated eventually. I'm not sure there is a good way to balance the Wolves, though, without making it impossible on the other two factions.
Overall, though, this is nitpicking. I like this iteration a lot more than the previous three, and I enjoyed (as participant and/or watcher) all of the previous three. So thanks for the game.
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Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 26, 2010 11:05:54 GMT -5
I'm still trying to work out the math. There are five zombies extant.
If they kill FCoD today, and they probably will, that means it's 6 undead, 2 wolves, 2 cabal, and 5 town (right?).
Duvsie and Sis C will probably not kill toNight, in order to avoid the risk of LyLo. Skeezix raises a zombie and it's 8-7. They try to lynch skeezix. He doesn't die, but a zombie does. So 8-6. But that Night, Skeez raises another zombie. back to 8-7 the following Dawn. This will continue until Skeez runs out of dead bodies, or until the Cabal starts blocking him at Night (which I think they will eventually do). So at some point it will come around to 8-6, after some unspecified number of no-kill nights and zombie-lynch days.
From there it will take them six more lynches to eliminate skeezix. At some point in there, duvsie will probably take out a Townie or two, once it seems safe, but not a Witch, because why bother? Duvsie won't attack the Necro because the risk is too great - who knows, at that point, what might happen.
So say, during the whittling process, that duvsie kills two Townies (sach and Pinkies, let's say).
Thus after skeezix FINALLY dies, it will be 2 Wolves, 2 Cabal, Mental Guy, and the Witches, going into Night. Wolves will target Idle Thoughts or Mental Guy or nphase. Let's say Mental Guy.
The following Day, it's duvsie, Sister C, Idle, nphase, Nanook, and stanislaus. By now everyone knows who everyone is, excepting that Idle is believed to be Town. They decide to eliminate a Wolf. All pile on poor duvsie. That Night, the Cabal blocks Sister C. The next Day, they lynch nphase, who dies. That Night, Sister C is blocked again. The Town believes that the Witches successfully blocked her kill. They lynch her.
Idle Thoughts and the Cabal win, sometime around Day 15 or 16.
That is my revised prediction. Who sees a hole in there?
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Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 26, 2010 11:06:33 GMT -5
Whoops. Hole. If at any point Idle is killed instead of one of the Townies as I suggested, then frankly the whole game is entirely chaos.
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Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 26, 2010 11:10:33 GMT -5
Last comment, I promise:
If Idle is killed during the run-up to skeezix's lynch, at literally any point, then the Town wins. The Wolves cannot win by any means that I can see.
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Post by Pleonast on Aug 26, 2010 11:13:06 GMT -5
Also, don't forget the Town can ignore the Cabal while there are two Witches left.
I will switch to 24 hour Days and Night if need be.
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