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Post by Pleonast on Aug 30, 2010 17:39:02 GMT -5
They have zero chance of winning being outnumbered 2 to 1 and in the open. If I die today, FCoD will kill a wolf toNight and then a wolf will be lynched tomorrow. Game Over. Town wins conspiracy yet again. So frustrating. The best they can hope for is a no lynch today. And they should contribute to it if at all possible. Nice analysis, red! It's exactly right. And making the Wolves know it should make them consider targeting Town ToNight instead of you. You've played pretty much perfectly, although making Zombies was easier than it should've been. You avoided getting lynched, Night-killed or investigated until the process of elimination caught you. The only places the Undead team made mistakes were the two missed Night kills and the one doubled-up kill. Three more non-Undead deaths would've sealed your victory.
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Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 31, 2010 8:55:43 GMT -5
They have zero chance of winning being outnumbered 2 to 1 and in the open. If I die today, FCoD will kill a wolf toNight and then a wolf will be lynched tomorrow. Game Over. Town wins conspiracy yet again. So frustrating. The best they can hope for is a no lynch today. And they should contribute to it if at all possible. Nice analysis, red! It's exactly right. And making the Wolves know it should make them consider targeting Town ToNight instead of you. You've played pretty much perfectly, although making Zombies was easier than it should've been. You avoided getting lynched, Night-killed or investigated until the process of elimination caught you. The only places the Undead team made mistakes were the two missed Night kills and the one doubled-up kill. Three more non-Undead deaths would've sealed your victory. It's kind of hard to view a doubled-up kill as a "mistake." With no way to coordinate, the assumption of a doubled-up kill or two is essentially part of the balance. So how does this play out. Skeez doesn't die toDay, but another zombie does. sachertorte's head explodes. ToNight, Pinkies blocks Skeez and FCoD targets Skeez, resulting in another dead Zombie. So it'll be (discounting a Wolf kill): UNDEAD (2 + 1) Skeez Zombie 1 Zombie 2 TOWN (5) sachertorte Pinkies FCoD Nanook Septimus WOLVES (2) duvsie Sister Coyote The Wolf kill comes into play now. The Witches will probably protect Pinkies. If the Wolves elect to target FCoD (they should), toMorrow the Town will have to lynch skeez again, cutting the number of zombies to one. That Night, the Wolves kill (say) Nanook. The following Day, they lynch skeezix again and his last zombie dies. Wolves take out septimus. Morning has broken. It's down to: sach pinkies duvsie sister C skeezix (0 zombies) Town lynches duvsie. That Night, Sister C kills sach. Morning breaks again. skeezix Sister C pinkies A simple majority is needed (two votes). If skeez and pinkies were to vote for Sister C, the Undead would win. If pinkies and Sister C were to vote for skeez, The Wolves would win. If Sister C and skeezix were to vote for pinkies, then Wolves win. No one votes, and it's a stalemate. Interesting.
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Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 31, 2010 8:57:11 GMT -5
Now, this changes a bit if FCoD decides to off a Wolf toNight, or if the Wolves decide not to kill FCoD.
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Post by Pleonast on Aug 31, 2010 10:45:37 GMT -5
It's kind of hard to view a doubled-up kill as a "mistake." With no way to coordinate, the assumption of a doubled-up kill or two is essentially part of the balance. In this case it was. FlyingCow intentionally changed his target to be the same as duvsie's when duvsie publicly announced his target. Night One, Pollux chose not to kill. And (I forget which Night) a Vampire kill failed because it hit a protected Witch. For any of these instances, a case could be made as to why it was a good decision. But in retrospect, they probably were the primary factors as to why the Undead have not yet won. ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ FlyingCow needs to target a Wolf ToNight, although he may not. Wolves need to kill Town ToNight, although they may not.
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Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 31, 2010 14:38:58 GMT -5
1. sach is, as expected, annoyed. If he actually follows through and doesn't return to the game, it will slightly change the math (the Wolves would gain de facto control of the voting once there are fewer than six players in the game, since with five and no vote from sach the Town would be unable to generate a majority to lynch.
2. I sort of understand where he's coming from. Again, I think it's a fair mechanic, insofar as that goes, I'm just not sure that the way it's playing out was how it was intended to happen and it's going to induce frustration and apathy.
3. I think the Wolves have pretty clearly given up on winning. They shouldn't. I think FCoD may target skeezix toNight. Because FCoD doesn't know the nature of skeezix's power, he may think that skeez is immune to lynches but not to Night kills, and might decide to test that theory. The Wolves could take advantage of this by killing FCoD.
If they do, then the Witches, Pinkies, and sachertorte are the only Townies alive going into toMorrow. At that point, nearly any outcome is possible if sachertorte does not show up to vote, because the Town will have only three votes and will be at the mercy of the Wolves or skeez to generate a lynch at all. The Wolves could vote for skeez, force that lynch through (eliminating the final zombie), then kill a Witch that Night. The following Day, it'd be two Wolves, one Witch, Pinkies, skeezix, and a nonparticipatory (hypothetically) sachertorte. Again the Wolves pile their votes on skeez; the Town goes along. What else can they do? Skeez finally dies. Wolves kill Other Witch. Last Day dawns with Pinkies and two Wolves, plus sach. Wolf win.
In other words, if sachertorte actually walks away from the game, the Wolves can potentially win this but in order to do so, they must kill FCoD toNight.
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Post by Pleonast on Aug 31, 2010 15:11:07 GMT -5
Yep. I think everyone has fixated on red, to their own team's detriment. With the publicly available information, the Undead are controlled now, the Cabal is dead. It's only the Wolves who are a threat to Town. Except that the Wolves have given up on winning. Don't forget about MentalGuy. Town has 6 players currently.
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Post by Pleonast on Sept 1, 2010 12:42:32 GMT -5
The Wolves are targeting FlyingCow. The Witches don't seem to be up to speed on the current state of the game, thinking that he is still Undead. And he is targeting red instead of a Wolf.
Not looking good for Town.
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Post by BillMc on Sept 1, 2010 13:49:21 GMT -5
Go Wolves!!
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Post by BillMc on Sept 1, 2010 13:50:39 GMT -5
You'll reveal Idle as Cabal at dawn yeah? That should have some interesting reactions!
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Post by Pleonast on Sept 1, 2010 14:54:30 GMT -5
Finally, a Townie realized the Wolves are the threat. If they lynch a Wolf ToDay, is there any reason not to call the game in the Town's favor?
Bad case for Town is the Wolves kill Pinkies (assuming Witches protect someone else), but he'll still get his block on red. So Day Nine would be 2 Witches, 2 Detectives vs 1 Omega Wolf vs 1 Necro + 2 Zombies. Lynch the last Wolf and then the Necro gets another Zombie and wins. Or, lynch a Zombie and Wolf kills either Town (giving win to Undead) or destroys Zombie (leading to same state minus a Zombie).
Optimal path for Town is lynch Wolf, Witches protect Pinkies. Is that enough to guarantee victory? Day Nine at worst would be 1 Witch, 2 Dets, 1 Vic vs 1 Wolf vs 1 Necro + 2 Zombs. Lynch Wolf again and win.
So, I think the fair thing is to call a win for Town if they lynch Wolf ToDay and protect the Vicar ToNight. Any thoughts?
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Post by Pleonast on Sept 1, 2010 16:34:38 GMT -5
sach is letting his annoyance get in the way of understanding Nanook's correct analysis. Edited: okay, he's better now.
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Post by BillMc on Sept 1, 2010 17:54:22 GMT -5
So, I think the fair thing is to call a win for Town if they lynch Wolf ToDay and protect the Vicar ToNight. Any thoughts? yeah that would be fair. As it stands however, if both duvsie and sisc vote with red for a lynching town, the game will swing in favour of the wolves Town requires two of cap/septimus/mental guy showing up and voting duvsie, otherwise it will be a tie and no lynch damn shame duvsie or sisc wasn't the original alpha rather than ed - that extra kill would be mighty handy now.
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Post by special on Sept 1, 2010 18:00:11 GMT -5
So, I think the fair thing is to call a win for Town if they lynch Wolf ToDay and protect the Vicar ToNight. Any thoughts? yeah that would be fair. As it stands however, if both duvsie and sisc vote with red for a lynching town, the game will swing in favour of the wolves Town requires two of cap/septimus/mental guy showing up and voting duvsie, otherwise it will be a tie and no lynch damn shame duvsie or sisc wasn't the original alpha rather than ed - that extra kill would be mighty handy now. I asked to be the Alpha to rectify my mistakes in C3
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Post by BillMc on Sept 1, 2010 18:03:24 GMT -5
I asked to be the Alpha to rectify my mistakes in C3 And in C5 you will ask to be.... ;D
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Post by special on Sept 1, 2010 19:05:20 GMT -5
I asked to be the Alpha to rectify my mistakes in C3 And in C5 you will ask to be.... ;D Nothing. I'll never ask for anything ever again. Never
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Sept 1, 2010 19:29:55 GMT -5
Arrrrgghhh, so close! If I had listened to Nphase and blocked FCoD that Night, I'd still be alive. Booo. Hissss. Anyway, to answer Inner Stickler's earlier question and Hoopy's comment: As Special Ed said, my reason for being so vocal with the "KILL MEEE" lines was, more or less, trying subtle reverse psychology. Obviously I didn't want to die and I figured if I can keep reminding scum that there are bigger, better, more powerful roles still in the game, they'd try for them instead of a "now useless Scotsman". By the same token, I hoped that directly asking and telling them to kill me would make them also, maybe just out of spite, not do it. Becoming a "useless Scotsman", I saw it, was the best choice. Town leave you alone thinking you're confirmed and scum leave you alone thinking you're no threat at all and a useless role compared to that of Witches and Detectives and Vicars. They choose to kill those other roles over the useless, now ordinary one. So close.... I find it hilarious the people still alive are still denying the fact I must have been Cabal from the start. They're convinced I was recruited.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Sept 1, 2010 19:30:29 GMT -5
But ah well...storyteller is impressed with my play, so that's almost as good as a win.
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Post by special on Sept 1, 2010 19:40:30 GMT -5
But ah well...storyteller is impressed with my play, so that's almost as good as a win. Can I take a moral victory in the fact that I was targeted with everything but the kitchen sink on Day/Night 1?
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Sept 1, 2010 20:28:34 GMT -5
But ah well...storyteller is impressed with my play, so that's almost as good as a win. Can I take a moral victory in the fact that I was targeted with everything but the kitchen sink on Day/Night 1? You can pretty much take a "moral victory" in anything you want. Hence, why there's that qualifying adjective in that phrase. If you have to qualify it, it's not a victory.
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Post by Inner Stickler on Sept 1, 2010 20:56:08 GMT -5
[quote author=admin board= I find it hilarious the people still alive are still denying the fact I must have been Cabal from the start. They're convinced I was recruited. [/quote]Well duh. When the moderator says Idle Thoughts is a Scotsman, people tend to believe it. The game does say it has recruitment. The only recruitment is that offered to vampires but how was town to know that. Their reaction is, frankly understandable. Nothing against you but, in my opinion, the disguise power is a gastard power. Unless it actually changes the player's alignment for that cycle it forces the mod to lie to the players and is therefore gastard.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Sept 1, 2010 21:09:44 GMT -5
Hey, not much argument there...I told Pleonast way back in Secret Day One that it seemed to me like a gastard power and that people--once they found out--would think it was a gastard power. He said they shouldn't be surprised, though, based on something in the rules that he then quoted to me...a part that says, basically, that not all revealings might be true. Here's the part he bolded, in reply to me, that he seemed to say gave him an out: "Upon death, only a player's name will be revealed by the moderator. After one Day-Night or Night-Day cycle, the player's faction will be revealed. After another cycle, the player's role will be revealed. This information will always be completely correct; information gained via other sources may be affected by other players' powers." Nevertheless, I still agree with you. Pretty gastard ish in my opinion.
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Post by Inner Stickler on Sept 1, 2010 21:54:29 GMT -5
The fine print defense, while admissible in court, often leaves a bad taste in the mouth.
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Post by storyteller0910 on Sept 2, 2010 7:22:14 GMT -5
Nice post by duvsie there. It's not going to work, of course. The Town's going to lynch duvsie on account of each one will individually decide that if there's even more recruitment, it's not worth worrying about. With duvsie dead - well, how does it play out?
ToNight the Witches protect Pinkies, who blocks skeezix. But the Wolves kill a Witch. The next Day, Town lynches Sister C. Pinkies blocks skeezix, who is powerless to do anything about it. So yes, Pleo, if the Town lynches a Wolf toDay and Pinkies lives through the Night... well, I'd still force the Town to actually kill Sister C the following Day. Because if they don't, she can kill Pinkies that Night and force the Town into an endless stalemate with skeezix where they must lynch him every Day in order to keep him from winning, which opens the door to a Wolf win, however unlikely.
Wolves should target Pinkies toNight.
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Post by storyteller0910 on Sept 2, 2010 7:25:45 GMT -5
Of course, if more than one of the three missing Townies doesn't turn up toDay, there will be a no-lynch toDay. That'll change the paradigm.
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Post by BillMc on Sept 2, 2010 9:03:38 GMT -5
Yeah, if SisC votes as Duvsie and Red, then it is a no lynch.
Town need 2 of the 3 to show up and vote duvsie, if only 1 shows up, it is no lynch - until duvsie/sisc/red unvote all but one, and then there will be a town lynch.
Could be an interesting day end if town gets lynched lol!
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Post by storyteller0910 on Sept 2, 2010 9:13:42 GMT -5
Yeah, if SisC votes as Duvsie and Red, then it is a no lynch. Town need 2 of the 3 to show up and vote duvsie, if only 1 shows up, it is no lynch - until duvsie/sisc/red unvote all but one, and then there will be a town lynch. Could be an interesting day end if town gets lynched lol! No, because the rules require at least half the players alive to be voting in order for a lynch to occur. With eight alive, if at least one player doesn't get to four, there will not be a lynch. sach and Nanook have their votes in. At least two of the missing three must come in and vote for duvsie, or there will be no lynch. It seems like Mental Guy won't be around, so the question is, will both septimus and Pinkies show up in the next five real-life hours?
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Post by BillMc on Sept 2, 2010 9:48:20 GMT -5
pesky rules!
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Post by storyteller0910 on Sept 2, 2010 10:17:23 GMT -5
OK, let's play this out. There are two zombies still hanging around.
The Wolves should both vote for skeezix. Eventually, as the deadline approaches, a Townie will reason that it is better for skeezix to lose another zombie than for there to be a no-lynch. Skeezix is lynched, a zombie dies.
ToNight, the Wolves target a Witch. Assume they are successful.
ToMorrow, the Town gets it together and finally lynches duvsie. That Night, Sister C kills Captain Pinkies.
The following Day dawns with (say) Nanook, sachertorte, and Mental Guy still alive, vs. Sister C, skeezix, and one zombie.
With Pinkies dead, the Town MUST lynch skeezix again, or skeezix wins in the Night. They do. A zombie vanishes.
That Night, Sister C kills sachertorte. Morning comes. 1 Wolf (Sis C), 1 necro, 1 zombie, 2 Townies (Mental Guy and septimus). Skeez must be lynched again. Down to 2 Town, 1 Wolf, 1 necro. That Night, Sis C can't kill at all.
Dawn breaks. 2 Town, 1 Wolf, 1 zombie, 1 necro. Town lynches skeez. Sis C doesn't kill.
Infinite loop, and no one wins.
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Post by storyteller0910 on Sept 2, 2010 10:20:21 GMT -5
Wait, I'm wrong. It's not infinite. There will eventually come a time when skeezix fails to raise a zombie, either becuse he hits a corpse already blessed by Pinkies or runs out of corpses altogether.
Any possibility still seems possible right now.
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Post by BillMc on Sept 2, 2010 10:37:58 GMT -5
With septimus voting red, it will probably be no lynch. So wolves kill a witch - or maybe try and kill cap Sach probably wont be around and MG is MIA, getting a consensus to lynch toMorrow may be tough; no lynch is good for the wolves Wolves then kill Cap Then a wolf win looks likely
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