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Day Two
Jun 1, 2007 22:39:02 GMT -5
Post by Gadarene on Jun 1, 2007 22:39:02 GMT -5
...Yeah, I gotta believe this is the right play. By my count I'm shifting the vote from (1) a tie between a strong player who I think might be a pirate (mhaye) and a decent player who I don't think is a pirate (hockeymonkey) to (2) a tie between a decent player who I think might be a pirate (FCOD) and a decent player who I don't think is a pirate (hockeymonkey). Not the best situation any way you slice it, but at least the worst-case scenario is a little less bad in tie #2.
unvote mhaye
vote Flying Cow of Doom[/color]
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Day Two
Jun 1, 2007 22:53:34 GMT -5
Post by capybara on Jun 1, 2007 22:53:34 GMT -5
Gad, I think I feel the same way you do (perhaps even less certain of anything, though), HOWEVER it's 11th hour and given FCOD's history of suspecting me (and vice versa) I am afraid I have tunnel vision and need to recuse myself of casting the vote, even though as a west-coast US poster I'm one of few still paying attention. I think I'm just precisely the wrong person to get into it. Sorry! I can't budge!
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Day Two
Jun 1, 2007 22:55:10 GMT -5
Post by capybara on Jun 1, 2007 22:55:10 GMT -5
In other words, I'd rather see another tie and extension and additional discussion than be the one to string up FCOD on an iffy hunch.
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Day Two
Jun 1, 2007 22:59:17 GMT -5
Post by Gadarene on Jun 1, 2007 22:59:17 GMT -5
Would another tie mean another extension? I think I'm still stuck in the Mafia III mindset, where the lynchee is chosen randomly. I know Mal posted about extensions being the result of an initial tie, but I thought there was something somewhere from him (I can't find it in the Rules forum) indicating that if the vote is still tied after the extension has elapsed, something else happens.
Can someone clarify?
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Day Two
Jun 1, 2007 22:59:43 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Jun 1, 2007 22:59:43 GMT -5
...Yeah, I gotta believe this is the right play. By my count I'm shifting the vote from (1) a tie between a strong player who I think might be a pirate ( mhaye) and a decent player who I don't think is a pirate ( hockeymonkey) to (2) a tie between a decent player who I think might be a pirate ( FCOD) and a decent player who I don't think is a pirate ( hockeymonkey). Not the best situation any way you slice it, but at least the worst-case scenario is a little less bad in tie #2. unvote mhayevote Flying Cow of Doom[/color][/quote] I actually think this looks suspicious. So, if there's a tie between two people instead of three, I assume, this time around, Mal will use random.org? I said before, I think both have a feeling of scumminess about them....as I said that I think you aren't to be totally trusted either (and could be a dangerous pirate). So let's just, for case's sake, say all three of you are scum. It'd make sense then that you'd unvote one of them and vote for someone (giving a new tie) who is procrew. That way there's a fifty percent chance that, via random.org, FCOD will get it and hockeymonkey won't. Pretty ingenious eh? ;D Yeah, maybe far fetched a bit. But come on, your last minute vote switch doing NOTHING but creating another tie is just weird on many levels. I'm starting really starting to feel more and more that you're a pirate yourself.
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Day Two
Jun 1, 2007 23:02:28 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Jun 1, 2007 23:02:28 GMT -5
In fact, the case also works against you if only ONE ( Mhaye) is scum (and you are as well), because then you'd know that the chances that crew will be lynched, even with a flip of the coin between hockey and FCOD, is one hundred percent guarenteed. I have misgivings thinking that myself as I feel, myself, hockey is scum, but I've been way off before (as you, yourself, know). Let me just say that if FCOD gets it for this day and is town, you will be among my top suspects.
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Day Two
Jun 1, 2007 23:03:44 GMT -5
Post by ArizonaTeach on Jun 1, 2007 23:03:44 GMT -5
I just want to add to that - it created a tie in which the accused FCOD is not going to be able to defend himself and Gadarene knew that.
--unvote MHaye-- ++vote hockey monkey++
Let's see if that makes anybody else crawl out of the woodwork.
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Day Two
Jun 1, 2007 23:04:26 GMT -5
Post by ArizonaTeach on Jun 1, 2007 23:04:26 GMT -5
Unable to Edit To Add: God, I winder if I'm even counting votes correctly...
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Day Two
Jun 1, 2007 23:06:22 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Jun 1, 2007 23:06:22 GMT -5
I winder it too!
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Day Two
Jun 1, 2007 23:08:19 GMT -5
Post by ArizonaTeach on Jun 1, 2007 23:08:19 GMT -5
God dimmit.
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Day Two
Jun 1, 2007 23:10:21 GMT -5
Post by capybara on Jun 1, 2007 23:10:21 GMT -5
Ok, so is HockeyMonkey one up? Gah!I wish there were a scoreboard up at the top. Do we have an unofficial count, as well as who for whom?
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Day Two
Jun 1, 2007 23:16:36 GMT -5
Post by Gadarene on Jun 1, 2007 23:16:36 GMT -5
Idle Thoughts:I thought I'd explained myself well enough, but maybe not. Here's how it breaks down: I have no confidence that anyone is scum. It's just Day Two. I'm less confident now than I was before that mhaye is a pirate, thanks to his belated defense post which addressed each of my points fairly decently. Regardless of whether or not mhaye is a pirate, he's clearly an extremely strong player. If I can possibly help it, I'd like to avoid lynching extremely strong players who turn out to be crewmembers, because that result is really bad for the crew. I'm now approximately as suspicious as mhaye as I am of FCOD. (And remember, because I have no confidence that anyone is scum at this point, I wouldn't be at all surprised if one or both of mhaye and FCOD do turn out to be town. We just don't have enough information to make decisive judgments.) I think mhaye is a stronger player than FCOD. This early in the game, when faced with a choice between lynching two players of whom I am approximately equally suspicious, I'd rather lynch the one who isn't the stronger player. That way, if the person does turn out to be crew, it does minimal damage to our side. The fact that my vote switch is forcing a second tie is beside the point. I don't think hockeymonkey is scum, and I'd rather she wasn't part of the equation. All I can do is replace a strong maybe-pirate in the vote lead with an average maybe-pirate. I order the possible outcomes like this, from most to least desirable: 1) mhaye is lynched and turns out to be a pirate 2) hockeymonkey is lynched and turns out to be a pirate 3) FCOD is lynched and turns out to be a pirate 4) FCOD is lynched and turns out to be town 5) hockeymonkey is lynched and turns out to be town 6) mhaye is lynched and turns out to be town I'm risk-averse in this instance because I don't think we collectively have enough information to be able to accurately start pegging scum yet. So I'm trading out (in my mind) the #1 and #6 possibilities in that spectrum above for the #3 and #4 possibilities...less beneficial to the town if we bag ourselves a pirate, but less damaging (and I think much less damaging, since we could always lynch mhaye some other time if we continue to have suspicions of him, but if he's lynched now, that's one strong player who's never coming back) if we misfire and find ourselves with a dead crewmember. In short, Idle, you're way overthinking this. I'd just rather see us make a mistake with FCOD than with mhaye. I voted for mhaye before because he was alone at the top of my candidate list. He no longer is. That precipitated the above thought process, and necessitated a change in votes.
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Day Two
Jun 1, 2007 23:20:14 GMT -5
Post by Gadarene on Jun 1, 2007 23:20:14 GMT -5
ArizonaTeach:
*sigh* FCOD has known for at least the last real-time day and a half that he's one of the major accused, and he's posted a number of times in his own defense. It's not like I'm contributing to the stealth lynching of someone who had no votes the last time they checked in.
And I as well would really, really like an updated vote count. As well as clarification on what happens if there's a second tie.
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Day Two
Jun 1, 2007 23:25:35 GMT -5
Post by Gadarene on Jun 1, 2007 23:25:35 GMT -5
Oh, and I forgot to respond to this.
Idle Thoughts:
Good! I'm one of a decent number of posters who haven't really come under sustained suspicion yet, and that state of affairs should be remedied for all of us. Let's revisit this on Day Three, assuming we're both alive then, because everyone needs to be scrutinized, and I'm happy to have you lead the way in doing the honors for me.
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Hockey Monkey!
Borogrove
This is supposed to be a happy occasion. Let's not bicker over who killed who.
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Day Two
Jun 1, 2007 23:28:54 GMT -5
Post by Hockey Monkey! on Jun 1, 2007 23:28:54 GMT -5
ArizonaTeach:*sigh* FCOD has known for at least the last real-time day and a half that he's one of the major accused, and he's posted a number of times in his own defense. It's not like I'm contributing to the stealth lynching of someone who had no votes the last time they checked in. And I as well would really, really like an updated vote count. As well as clarification on what happens if there's a second tie. Mhaye - 3 - Blaster Master, zuma, Pleonast FCOD - 5 - storyteller, Kyrie, cowgirl, Mhaye, Gaderene HockeyMonkey - 6 - Lakai, FCOD, Autolycus, diggitcamara, Idle Thoughts, ArizonaTeach Approximately 30 minutes to go.
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Hockey Monkey!
Borogrove
This is supposed to be a happy occasion. Let's not bicker over who killed who.
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Day Two
Jun 1, 2007 23:37:12 GMT -5
Post by Hockey Monkey! on Jun 1, 2007 23:37:12 GMT -5
I just want to add to that - it created a tie in which the accused FCOD is not going to be able to defend himself and Gadarene knew that. --unvote MHaye--++vote hockey monkey++Let's see if that makes anybody else crawl out of the woodwork. Nobody else has to crawl out of the woodwork now! The pirates can ride the next 20 minutes out without doing anything! I guess I'll see you scallywags on Skull Island, or wherever it is that the dead go.
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Day Two
Jun 1, 2007 23:40:28 GMT -5
Post by Gadarene on Jun 1, 2007 23:40:28 GMT -5
hockeymonkey:A couple of hours ago, you posted this: Does that reasoning still hold true? If so, why don't you try to save your skin now?
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Day Two
Jun 1, 2007 23:41:47 GMT -5
Post by capybara on Jun 1, 2007 23:41:47 GMT -5
Argh. unvote MadThe Swine vote FlyingCowofDoom
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Hockey Monkey!
Borogrove
This is supposed to be a happy occasion. Let's not bicker over who killed who.
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Day Two
Jun 1, 2007 23:41:58 GMT -5
Post by Hockey Monkey! on Jun 1, 2007 23:41:58 GMT -5
Also note that I could vote for FCOD and put this back at a tie. Which I might do if I were a pirate. But I'm not a pirate!
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Hockey Monkey!
Borogrove
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Day Two
Jun 1, 2007 23:43:31 GMT -5
Post by Hockey Monkey! on Jun 1, 2007 23:43:31 GMT -5
hockeymonkey:A couple of hours ago, you posted this: Does that reasoning still hold true? If so, why don't you try to save your skin now? Cause I'm not convinced that FCOD is a pirate either.
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Day Two
Jun 1, 2007 23:47:25 GMT -5
Post by ArizonaTeach on Jun 1, 2007 23:47:25 GMT -5
OK. Dammit. I don't think I have much choice here, and while this may screw things up royally, but I think I have to do this.
FCOD is Squire Tewlawny. I know this because I'm Captain Smollett.
I don't believe Hockey Monkey is scum, but I know for a fact that FCOD isn't. I want to vote for MHaye. Will people please change their votes to MHaye?!?
By saying this, I'm relatively sure I and FCOD will be dead by tomorrow, but it must be done.
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Hockey Monkey!
Borogrove
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Day Two
Jun 1, 2007 23:47:55 GMT -5
Post by Hockey Monkey! on Jun 1, 2007 23:47:55 GMT -5
Jebus, it's tied again! I'm not going to have any fingernails left!
FCOD - 6 Me - 6 Mhay - 3
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Day Two
Jun 1, 2007 23:48:49 GMT -5
Post by Gadarene on Jun 1, 2007 23:48:49 GMT -5
Nobody can possibly be "convinced" at this stage except pirates. Surely the likelihood in your mind of FCOD being a pirate is greater than the likelihood of you being a pirate, right? (Assuming that you are, in fact, not a pirate.) So...
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Day Two
Jun 1, 2007 23:50:17 GMT -5
Post by Lakai on Jun 1, 2007 23:50:17 GMT -5
OK. Dammit. I don't think I have much choice here, and while this may screw things up royally, but I think I have to do this. FCOD is Squire Tewlawny. I know this because I'm Captain Smollett. I don't believe Hockey Monkey is scum, but I know for a fact that FCOD isn't. I want to vote for MHaye. Will people please change their votes to MHaye?!? By saying this, I'm relatively sure I and FCOD will be dead by tomorrow, but it must be done. WTF?! Why didn't FCOD say anything?
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Day Two
Jun 1, 2007 23:50:28 GMT -5
Post by capybara on Jun 1, 2007 23:50:28 GMT -5
Oh, Jeebus. unvote FCOD vote Madthe Swine If you lie you're doomed!
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Day Two
Jun 1, 2007 23:51:27 GMT -5
Post by ArizonaTeach on Jun 1, 2007 23:51:27 GMT -5
BECAUSE FCOD IS OUT OF TOWN. DAMMIT, I"VE SAID THAT TWICE ALREADY!
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Day Two
Jun 1, 2007 23:52:44 GMT -5
Post by Gadarene on Jun 1, 2007 23:52:44 GMT -5
ArizonaTeach:
Yup and yup. Based on my reasoning in #461, your roleclaim (which can be tested tomorrow) makes FCOD less likely to be a pirate than mhaye. Meaning that it's not a question of choosing the least strong player among equivalent potentially pirate-y options to lynch.
Meaning...damn. I don't like the way this day is headed.
unvote Flying Cow of Doom
vote mhaye
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Day Two
Jun 1, 2007 23:52:45 GMT -5
Post by Kyrie Eleison on Jun 1, 2007 23:52:45 GMT -5
Hey, by all means, if I'm misreading or misinterpriting your posts, explain. I said this: Please do not mistake my main point, which is that evidence of a known shared alignment is not necessarily evidence of piracy, with a defense of zuma. I remain slightly suspicious of zuma myself. To which you replied: Why? Expand on it a little. Maybe that's a main reason why AZteach voted for you (however I don't know and don't speak for him, I'm just guessing) and certainly one of the reasons I am. On one hand we have you not even posting that much. On the other we have when you DO, most are non-committal. They don't say much. They say things like who you're suspicious of, but not really in-depth as to why. All of your posts, in both Day One and Two just read like you're trying to stay off the radar and, when you do post, it's to suspect someone and then either trail off on it just leaving it out there (with no back up, really) or really turning the words around of the person so you look a bit better. I had no idea what you were asking the why of. But it was a short post that you were referring to, so I tried to cover all of the possibilities. I'll color them for you: Please do not mistake my main point, which is that evidence of a known shared alignment is not necessarily evidence of piracy, with a defense of zuma. I remain slightly suspicious of zuma myself. Here is the response, using the same colors to denote the responses. Why, what, Idle? Why do I not want you to mistake my main point? That should be obvious, no one wants their words to be misunderstood or misrepresented.Why is evidence of a known shared alignment not evidence of piracy? Christ on a stick, yes, I was avoiding pointing out the obvious, but evidence of shared alignment could just about equally be interpreted as involving officers or pirates. If that's the only solid evidence behind an accusation, that accusation is as likely to expose an officer, including our doctor, as it is a pirate.Why do I remain slightly suspicious of zuma? Slightly is an understatement. I remain suspicious of everyone other than myself. The only thing that varies is the degree of suspicion.How you get from this, to anything remotely resembling this: Why, what, Idle? Why do I not want you to mistake my main point? That should be obvious, no one wants their words to be misunderstood or misrepresented. So what's that mean? Never put it out there what you think or opinions you have? Seems kinda cowardly. is beyond my comprehension.
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Hockey Monkey!
Borogrove
This is supposed to be a happy occasion. Let's not bicker over who killed who.
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Day Two
Jun 1, 2007 23:52:51 GMT -5
Post by Hockey Monkey! on Jun 1, 2007 23:52:51 GMT -5
OK. Dammit. I don't think I have much choice here, and while this may screw things up royally, but I think I have to do this. FCOD is Squire Tewlawny. I know this because I'm Captain Smollett. I don't believe Hockey Monkey is scum, but I know for a fact that FCOD isn't. I want to vote for MHaye. Will people please change their votes to MHaye?!? By saying this, I'm relatively sure I and FCOD will be dead by tomorrow, but it must be done. Why are you voting for me then? Just leave your vote with me and I'll go peacefully. I'm just crew, no big loss.
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Day Two
Jun 1, 2007 23:53:13 GMT -5
Post by ArizonaTeach on Jun 1, 2007 23:53:13 GMT -5
Come on, there are like six of you online right now. I can't change my vote because it would drop FCOD back into a tie, and nobody knows what will happen.
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