Post by Renata on Aug 9, 2010 7:37:15 GMT -5
Aug 7, 2010 6:32:57 GMT -5 @septimus said:
Vote Inner SticklerAnother boring Day? Maybe not quite:
Very easy for a wolf to claim detective and get away with it..ESPECIALLY if they come up with correct results.
Yes. Even I figured out that Mental Guy is either Detective or Wolf, and Inner Stickler is probable Wolf in either case. I now view nphase (and perhaps Kat!) with suspicion for pretending not to know that.
You didn't read my post. I discussed the possibility that Mental Guy could be a false-claiming wolf, and dismissed it, with reasoning, as being low-likelihood. For you to characterize my argument as "pretending not to know that" is ridiculous.
My post again, for reference.
Despite him still being alive, I think Mental Guy's claim is credible.
-- Special Ed said that MHaye was a wolf. A false-claiming Undead or Cabal would have to consider that might be true, and hence dangerous to contradict. If MHaye did flip wolf this morning, the charade would have been over.
-- On top of that, a false claim of detective is one that would seem to have a very short lifespan regardless. From anyone but the wolves, it's going to attract a kill sooner rather than later, no question. The witches due to their powers had (and still have, maybe), little incentive to protect one of three detectives at their own expense. Even the retributive kill of the Undead is little protection in the long term -- wolves still have the luxury of numbers, and the Undead don't. From the wolves themselves, there's only going to be so long before the 'detective's survival is questioned; again, it's very short term.
Possibly the most important thing: Inner Stickler himself. If he's not a wolf, what's gained by such a gambit? If he is, what's the benefit of lynching him to buy Mental Guy at most another day or two alive?
Anyway, it's not yet quite certain, but I'm happy enough to jump on this one with both feet.
-- Special Ed said that MHaye was a wolf. A false-claiming Undead or Cabal would have to consider that might be true, and hence dangerous to contradict. If MHaye did flip wolf this morning, the charade would have been over.
-- On top of that, a false claim of detective is one that would seem to have a very short lifespan regardless. From anyone but the wolves, it's going to attract a kill sooner rather than later, no question. The witches due to their powers had (and still have, maybe), little incentive to protect one of three detectives at their own expense. Even the retributive kill of the Undead is little protection in the long term -- wolves still have the luxury of numbers, and the Undead don't. From the wolves themselves, there's only going to be so long before the 'detective's survival is questioned; again, it's very short term.
Possibly the most important thing: Inner Stickler himself. If he's not a wolf, what's gained by such a gambit? If he is, what's the benefit of lynching him to buy Mental Guy at most another day or two alive?
Anyway, it's not yet quite certain, but I'm happy enough to jump on this one with both feet.