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Post by Pleonast on Aug 13, 2010 14:05:19 GMT -5
The Night ends as expected. The dead pile up as before.
bufftabby and moodymitchy die. stanislaus is Cabal and eureka is Town. metallicsquink is a Freemason and Merestil Haye is a Coroner. stanislaus becomes a Zombie.
Welcome to Day Four. It will end no later than 12 noon PT (3pm ET) on Wed Aug 18. If conditions are met before then, it could end earlier, but not on Saturday or Sunday.
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Post by bufftabby on Aug 13, 2010 14:15:09 GMT -5
Bye, ehv'rybody!
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 13, 2010 14:16:17 GMT -5
Vote MentalGuy Vote Sachertorte
As I said yesterDay, MentalGuy could easily be a wolf who knew that Inner Stickler was a wolf. It would be an extremely clever gambit that would easily work as the three detectives have no idea who else is a detective.
As for Sach, I've been suspicious of him all game, since Day one. Yes, Special Ed said he was a vampire and he was a wolf but that doesn't always mean they lie. Sach has been playing, IMO, vastly differently than he usually plays. Been more apt to keep quiet, keep things hidden, keep things secret....usually he's all about knowledge and info is power to Town and that any delay in talking only comes as a disadvantage. I don't buy the "we don't need other roles being revealed" excuse.
In fact, I'm starting to think at this point, we should start considering a mass claim. We have the list, we know it's true, there's not many places scum can hide at this point. At worst we'll have people claiming the same exact role....it would just be a question of who was lying then.
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Post by Nanook on Aug 13, 2010 14:18:45 GMT -5
I don't believe that MentalGuy is a Wolf, and even if he is this is far too early to be lynching him.
You're wrong about Sach. I know for a fact that he's Town.
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Post by Gir! on Aug 13, 2010 14:19:18 GMT -5
Well, on the one had, the person I would have voted for is dead. On the other hand, so is buff and we won't be able to get any confirmation on the remaining Freemason (sorry, I haven't examined her posts for breadcrumbing).
One thing I noticed while rereading during the Night was that Mister Blockey hasn't said much at all, and that's unusual for him. *pokes Blockey with a stick* (There are other people that haven't posted much, but Blockey's un-talkative-ness struck me the most.)
I have to go work now, since I'm at work. Be back sometime this evening.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 13, 2010 14:20:21 GMT -5
Well, thanks for saying something.
Unvote Sach
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Post by Red Skeezix on Aug 13, 2010 16:06:53 GMT -5
A possibility occurred to me, that should not be discounted. Sach might be the omega wolf. It would fit with the whole "sach is a vampire" thing ed was saying. I think however that this is a mere possibility, and ed might have been just having a laugh. But IIRC he mentioned it more than once, so it's a possibility that he was trying to entice an investigation.
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Post by Gir! on Aug 13, 2010 16:13:55 GMT -5
That's covered easily enough: Sachertorte, are you a Freemason*?
Is he says yes, lynch him. If he says no, don't lynch him.
*Because Omega Wolf investigates as Freemason, except for by actual Freemasons.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 13, 2010 16:42:17 GMT -5
My only problem with that is this: Nanook knows that. So if there was any room for doubt, he'd have said that, I'd think. The way he said it makes it seem, to me, that there is no possibility of foolery...because if Nanook investigated Sach and came up with Freemason, then he'd probably say "well, Sach could be a wolf, since the Omega Wolf investigates as Freemason".
But instead he says he knows for a fact Sach is Town. So that makes me more apt to believe Sach really is Town.
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Post by sachertorte on Aug 13, 2010 17:17:09 GMT -5
As I said yesterDay, MentalGuy could easily be a wolf who knew that Inner Stickler was a wolf. It would be an extremely clever gambit that would easily work as the three detectives have no idea who else is a detective. No. It would be a stupid gambit. A Wolf MentalGuy would have served up a wolf, for very little gain. Sure, maybe we believe him now, but there would be a non-zero chance that he'd be facing 3 dead detectives at some point, or 2 dead detectives and a counter claim. Then he would have given up Inner Stickler and himself for nothing. I've only played one Conspiracy before this one, C1. It was that experience that has led me to the conclusion that generally sitting on information, especially non-volatile information, is a good thing. I'm playing this game consistent with those discoveries. Dude! You were IN C1! I was very NOT forthright with information! A mass claim is a bad idea. If you hadn't revealed your list publicly then a mass claim would be less bad. Even if we could ID each and every scum perfectly at this time... we would LOSE. Town winning is contingent upon scum killing other scum during the Night. Lynching scum correctly is not sufficient to win. Ultimately, Town needs to be lucky to win.
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Post by sachertorte on Aug 13, 2010 17:18:12 GMT -5
You're wrong about Sach. I know for a fact that he's Town. Well that's no fun. Not that that's particularly enlightening. I'm always town.
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Post by sachertorte on Aug 13, 2010 17:25:48 GMT -5
My only problem with that is this: Nanook knows that. So if there was any room for doubt, he'd have said that, I'd think. The way he said it makes it seem, to me, that there is no possibility of foolery...because if Nanook investigated Sach and came up with Freemason, then he'd probably say "well, Sach could be a wolf, since the Omega Wolf investigates as Freemason". I don't recall the rules, so Nanook will have to clarify. I thought the Seer gains role information, but the Witches only get alignment. If this is true, then a Witch investigation result of "Town" leaves open the possibility of an Omega Wolf. Inner Sticker is clearly not the Omega Wolf since he was doing the killing for the wolves. Special Ed is not the Omega Wolf since the witches got a wolf reading on him. That leaves the Omega Wolf still out there.
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Post by sachertorte on Aug 13, 2010 17:29:35 GMT -5
That's covered easily enough: Sachertorte, are you a Freemason*? Is he says yes, lynch him. If he says no, don't lynch him. *Because Omega Wolf investigates as Freemason, except for by actual Freemasons. Well that's just silly. What are you going to do if the Witches investigate an actual Freemason? Odd policy. Since we know the full number of Freemasons don't you think it makes more sense to treat them as such? That is an uncountered Mason claim at this point (just like an uncountered Seer claim or uncountered Vicar claim) would be sufficient reason NOT to lynch somebody. And if someone does counterclaim then we can sort out which to lynch? Doesn't that seem more reasonable?
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Post by sachertorte on Aug 13, 2010 17:32:40 GMT -5
stanislaus was Nightkilled and Cabal. That disproves my theory that Cabal have nightkill resistance. Two Cabal... really? WTF is their secret power? I'm guessing it has to be recruitment of some sort. With just two players (now no more than one), there must be something powerful there.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 13, 2010 18:01:06 GMT -5
A mass claim is a bad idea. If you hadn't revealed your list publicly then a mass claim would be less bad. Guh? Sorry, I strongly disagree with this and don't see the sense you're making with it at all. Without any list, it would be harder, since anyone could just claim anything and nobody would have any way of knowing if it was a real role in the game or not. It's not very hard, especially as the game goes on longer and longer. No, having the list makes a mass claim easier to verify..because, at worst, all the scum roles can do is claim to be things on the list, in which case, we'll find groups of people who have to be lying.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 13, 2010 18:03:06 GMT -5
My only problem with that is this: Nanook knows that. So if there was any room for doubt, he'd have said that, I'd think. The way he said it makes it seem, to me, that there is no possibility of foolery...because if Nanook investigated Sach and came up with Freemason, then he'd probably say "well, Sach could be a wolf, since the Omega Wolf investigates as Freemason". I don't recall the rules, so Nanook will have to clarify. I thought the Seer gains role information, but the Witches only get alignment. If this is true, then a Witch investigation result of "Town" leaves open the possibility of an Omega Wolf. Inner Sticker is clearly not the Omega Wolf since he was doing the killing for the wolves. Special Ed is not the Omega Wolf since the witches got a wolf reading on him. That leaves the Omega Wolf still out there. If this is true, then I not only take issue with Nanook sounding and being so sure you're Town, but also with leaving you unvoted. So I'll wait on what Nanook has to say about his seeming certainty. Because seriously? Him just getting a read of "Town" isn't factual at all if the Omega Wolf would investigate as Town.
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Post by Nanook on Aug 13, 2010 18:16:26 GMT -5
Eh no you're right, I didn't consider the possibility of Omega. But, for much the same reason as Mentalguy, this is certainly NOT the time to be lynching people that are investigated as Town.
And Idle, he's saying if you hadn't REVEALED your list a mass claim would be less bad, not if you didn't have it. If you have the list, but don't say anything, and then we mass claim, those people who willy nilly choose roles(ie, the scum), would stick out like sore thumbs when you revealed your list.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 13, 2010 18:46:43 GMT -5
Yes, but don't you see, my whole plan from the start, on Day one, was to reveal the list and then get myself lynched on purpose so the list could be verified when my role was revealed. Maybe it wasn't such a great idea, but it's not like I can go back and change it...I set out with that plan/goal in mind, so it required revealing the info of the list. Plus, I still maintain that it works better for Town in the long run, knowing what there is to deal with.
So when IS the time to start distrusting people even if they investigate as Town? Because like it was just pointed out...the Omega Wolf investigates as Town. Seems pretty reasonable to me to still keep some reservations and not count anything out.
But anyway, I'll vote for a better canidate if one comes up. As of right now the person I find (and have found, more and more) suspicious is Sach.
------------------------------------------------------------ To turn the attention to others for a minute....and this isn't a FOS or "smudge" or anything...but what the heck is up with some players in this game? There's three or four who haven't really talked or played at all and who've, mostly, just come on each day to make one (voting) post. Is Duvise in this game at all? I think I remember one or two posts from him/her in the last four Days.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 13, 2010 18:49:03 GMT -5
I forgot a "most" up there, that should go between "person I find" and the start of my parentheses.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 13, 2010 19:14:06 GMT -5
Unvote MentalGuy Vote Sach
Just because he's the one I'm most suspicious of right now. If a better candidate comes along or if someone rises, in my mind, as more being suspicious, I'll be happy to change it.
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Post by Gir! on Aug 13, 2010 19:26:35 GMT -5
That's covered easily enough: Sachertorte, are you a Freemason*? Is he says yes, lynch him. If he says no, don't lynch him. *Because Omega Wolf investigates as Freemason, except for by actual Freemasons. Well that's just silly. Sorry, that was a joke. I had a higher than usual amount of caffeine at work today (usual = none, today = 3 cans of caffeinated soda), which brings on unrestrained silliness.
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Post by Gir! on Aug 13, 2010 21:45:28 GMT -5
Well, I went through Days 2 & 3 and didn't see any bufftabby posts that looked like breadcrumbs, so one of the following probably* occurred: (A) The third Freemason didn't target buff, (B) buff chose not to breadcrumb it or (C) I missed it.
The reason I'm bringing it up is based on part of sachertorte's comment in reply to my silliness, namely the "And if someone does counterclaim then we can sort out which to lynch?" Please note that this is not a recommendation, just something to throw around for discussion:
Based on the (apparent) lack of breadcrumbing, might it be a good idea, in case of a claim/counterclaim situation, to not lynch either of the claimants right away, since the Omega can't kill? This is taking into account that the real Freemason may not have worried about looking scummy based on his/her confirmability, so the more scummy-looking of the two may not actually be scum. Or is that just a stupid idea and I should soak my head?
*There is the possibility that bufftabby was the Omega Wolf and fakeclaimed, but if that happened, the remaining Freemasons are not playing very well, and the Wolves took an amazingly high risk and have a lot of balls. I'm mentioning it, but I thinkit's extremely unlikely.
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Post by Red Skeezix on Aug 13, 2010 23:33:03 GMT -5
Based on the (apparent) lack of breadcrumbing, might it be a good idea, in case of a claim/counterclaim situation, to not lynch either of the claimants right away, since the Omega can't kill? This is taking into account that the real Freemason may not have worried about looking scummy based on his/her confirmability, so the more scummy-looking of the two may not actually be scum. Or is that just a stupid idea and I should soak my head? At this point I feel that "telegraphing our punches" for scenarios that may or may not happen would be giving scum too much insight and allow them to plan more effectively or choose paths which avoid areas that will lead to their lynches. IOW, I feel that while your plan has some merits, I also feel that we should cross that bridge if/when we come to it.
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Post by Pollux Oil on Aug 14, 2010 1:21:34 GMT -5
To turn the attention to others for a minute....and this isn't a FOS or "smudge" or anything...but what the heck is up with some players in this game? There's three or four who haven't really talked or played at all and who've, mostly, just come on each day to make one (voting) post. I'm kind of guilty of this, I'm sure. But I'd like to point out the last two Days we've had the Day's lynch hand-delivered to us on a silver platter. It's hard to find things to point out when people are mostly just coming in and voting for who they're told. One of my strengths is voting analysis, and without voting patterns to analyze I don't really have a lot to go on. Just my two cents.
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Post by septimus on Aug 14, 2010 1:32:47 GMT -5
In fact, I'm starting to think at this point, we should start considering a mass claim. Assuming everyone's truthful and ignoring the Secret Special Powers, what I see as a likely result of mass claim is stalemate: The last three players are Townie, Wolf and Cabalist; Cabalist blocks the Wolf at Night and won't Lynch Townie, so no one further ever dies. Is this correct? (Of course a secret special power might break this deadlock; what are those powers anyway? )
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Post by BillMc on Aug 14, 2010 3:57:04 GMT -5
I don't believe that MentalGuy is a Wolf, and even if he is this is far too early to be lynching him. You're wrong about Sach. I know for a fact that he's Town. Well at the risk of pointing out what appears to be blatantly obvious, there is only one way that Nanook can know for an absolute fact that Sach is town - and that is if Sach is the 3rd witch. So let's assume that that is the case, so we have: Town ( 9 Living Town / 8 if Moody was town) : - 2 Witches (Nanook, Eureka, Sach?) - 1 Vicar (?) - 3 Detectives (Mental Guy (claimed), ?, ?) - 0 Coroner( MHaye) - 1 Seer(?) - 1 Scotsman (Idle) - 1 Freemasons ( bufftabby (claimed), Metallic Squink, ?) Wolves ( 5 Living Wolves / 4 if Moody was a wolf ): - 5 Wolves, Ed, IS, Undead ( 6 Undead / 5 if Moody was undead ) : - 2 Vampires, 1 Necromancer, 3 Zombies (Hoopy, MHaye, Stanislaus) Cabal ( 1 Living Cabalist / 0 if Moody was a cabalist ) : - 1 Cabalists (?), stanislausUnconfirmed Dead: - 01. moodymitchy - 02. bufftabby (claimed mason) - 06. eureka (claimed witch) - 12. Inner Sticker (accused wolf) Living Unknowns: - 02. Pollux Oil - 05. storyteller - 08. BillMc - 11. Honest Moley - 14. Captain Pinkies (Vicar according to Ed) - 15. Mister Blockey - 16. Sister Coyote - 18. septimus - 20. nphase - 21. FlyingCowOfDoom - 22. duvsie - 23. redskeezix - 24. Kat! Is the Cabal's secret power directing the kills to all the low numbers ?? Please don't tell me there is high number meta-clan! So it appears that the Undead are very close to winning - they just need to avoid being lynched today/killed tonight, raise one more zombie - and they win at dawn tomorrow. Unfortunately, it is a pretty large pool of unknowns to find the Undead in.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 14, 2010 4:33:09 GMT -5
So it appears that the Undead are very close to winning - they just need to avoid being lynched today/killed tonight, raise one more zombie - and they win at dawn tomorrow. Unfortunately, it is a pretty large pool of unknowns to find the Undead in. Exactly. We're getting to the point where it will be lynch or lose. This is why I think it would help greatly if we knew what everyone was, so we could start eliminating people off the list of possible votes for toDay. I mean, which would people rather have, a game won by the Undead or a mass name claim? I won't push it any more beyond this point if it's obvious people still aren't for it...but seriously, Undead is close to winning, as far as I can tell, than any other faction. They have a possible 2 vamps (if Moody or Buff wasn't one) and a possible Necromancer (if Moody or Buff wasn't it) and how many zombies now? 3? And there's no way to tell if Moody or Buff were any of the undead, either, with the Coroner dead, so we'd just be forced to wait for two days. Even if Mitch, for example, was shown to be Undead in one Day, we still wouldn't know the specifics of if he was a Vamp or Necro for another full Day.......pretty risky considering the Necro might still be alive and raising zombies in the next two Days. I just hate sitting around, most of the people not talking, close to having Undead win, and not seemingly trying to come up with a plan to stop it.
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Post by Mister Blockey on Aug 14, 2010 9:05:59 GMT -5
Nanook just admitted that he hadn't accounted for the omega wolf investigating as town so I'm less likely to assume sach is a witch. Kat: I haven't been talking because up until now there has been nothing to bloody talk about.
Oh a little math for you guys though 17 players -3 potential active undead players=14 v 6. Assuming three people die overnight (which has yet to happen in this game, a fact I find curious if we have wolves and two vampires) and one zombie is created then it will be 10 v 7 and we will be at lylo. At two kills every night it's more likely we're at 11 v 7, but that's still lylo. What that means though, is that we're not at lylo until tomorrow. Not that we shouldn't be planning, but we shouldn't be panicking.
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Post by Holy Moley! on Aug 14, 2010 14:56:28 GMT -5
So it appears that the Undead are very close to winning - they just need to avoid being lynched today/killed tonight, raise one more zombie - and they win at dawn tomorrow. Unfortunately, it is a pretty large pool of unknowns to find the Undead in. Exactly. We're getting to the point where it will be lynch or lose. This is why I think it would help greatly if we knew what everyone was, so we could start eliminating people off the list of possible votes for toDay. I mean, which would people rather have, a game won by the Undead or a mass name claim? I won't push it any more beyond this point if it's obvious people still aren't for it...but seriously, Undead is close to winning, as far as I can tell, than any other faction. They have a possible 2 vamps (if Moody or Buff wasn't one) and a possible Necromancer (if Moody or Buff wasn't it) and how many zombies now? 3? And there's no way to tell if Moody or Buff were any of the undead, either, with the Coroner dead, so we'd just be forced to wait for two days. Even if Mitch, for example, was shown to be Undead in one Day, we still wouldn't know the specifics of if he was a Vamp or Necro for another full Day.......pretty risky considering the Necro might still be alive and raising zombies in the next two Days. I just hate sitting around, most of the people not talking, close to having Undead win, and not seemingly trying to come up with a plan to stop it. I agree. I predicted multi-faction alliances at the start of this game, and one's already been proposed in public thread. It might be time for town to get in on the action. I for one would be happy to not lynch a wolf, if that wolf could provide me with some quality info about the remaining undead. As far as I can see, if what's being said is true, that would benefit both wolves and humans. Just because we can't win together doesn't mean we can't work together to stop another faction from winning. Seems to me that the biggest threat to both our win conditions is the undead. Also seems to me that there's no reason for us not to temporarily cooperate until the more immediate threat is out of the picture. The wolves can't night-kill the undead, and neither can town if Idle is correct about there being no vigs. I'm curious: how many other people, who are or profess to be town, would be willing to let a wolf live through the next - let's say - two exiles, if it meant that the undead were stopped in their tracks? As far as I can see, this doesn't disadvantage the town any more than complete inaction would (unless we're seriously unlucky and there's no vamp / wolf crossfire) and does move both sides closer to victory. This especially applies if Moody was Undead or Wolf (and it doesn't particularly matter which - either way, it gives us an extra lynch to play with). I realise the wolves can't openly discuss this in thread, for obvious reasons. (Heck, according to the rules they can't even discuss it in private during the day.) But it doesn't mean one of them can't act as spokesperson tomorrow if they see the advantages of this alliance. And finally, in the worst case scenario, we currently have equal numbers of town to all the other scum (five wolves, three vamps, one cabal, nine town). Ruling out the cabal for the moment: - We need ideally at least one wolf to hit a vamp by accident. We also need the necromancer exiled ASAP to stop the numbers of undead from swelling. - The vamps also need to kill the wolves - that's obvious - but they need the wolves to thin out the townies, or for at least one townie to be mis-exiled. - The wolves need the town to mis-exile, but they also need the vamps dead by exile. If they mis-kill and hit a vamp by accident, it could seriously damage their chances. That seems to be the situation, to me. The wolves and the town would seem to have a temporary shared interest in stopping the advancement of the undead. Of course, all of this assumes that the wolves can help us find the Undead. (Well, they know some players who can't be undead at least.) On the negative side - for the wolves - it means that one of them would have to come forward. That said, if they were revealed by investigation anyway, an open discussion might very well be worthwhile for both sides. There's already been information revealed by "outed" wolves. Thoughts, anybody?
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Post by sachertorte on Aug 14, 2010 14:56:53 GMT -5
Yes, but don't you see, my whole plan from the start, on Day one, was to reveal the list and then get myself lynched on purpose so the list could be verified when my role was revealed. Seriously?! Gah! That might have been a plausible plan IF you had managed to pull it off without having two witches claim and a mason claim. If I recall correctly, you pulled the 'lynch me' drama after a bunch of claims. Furthermore, this idea that you need the list verified RIGHT NOW is where you missed ample opportunities to leverage knowledge. So we know your list is legit. SO WHAT?! What good has it done us so far? Timing is everything in this game.
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