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Post by sachertorte on Aug 14, 2010 14:59:13 GMT -5
But anyway, I'll vote for a better canidate if one comes up. As of right now the person I find (and have found, more and more) suspicious is Sach. I'm not surprised at all. You're suspicious of me because I've been critical of your strategy.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 14, 2010 15:23:06 GMT -5
Yes, but don't you see, my whole plan from the start, on Day one, was to reveal the list and then get myself lynched on purpose so the list could be verified when my role was revealed. Seriously?! Gah! That might have been a plausible plan IF you had managed to pull it off without having two witches claim and a mason claim. If I recall correctly, you pulled the 'lynch me' drama after a bunch of claims. Furthermore, this idea that you need the list verified RIGHT NOW is where you missed ample opportunities to leverage knowledge. So we know your list is legit. SO WHAT?! What good has it done us so far? Timing is everything in this game. Hey, you won't hear from anyone more than me that it wasn't thought out well. I think I made the fact that I felt that way obvious when Inner Stickler rubbed it in my face about helping the wolves out with the list too. Believe me, I'd love nothing more than scum to just kill me off already So, in case you didn't get it: Yes, maybe it was ill-thought out...but I couldn't help the actions of others on Day one and in case you don't remember we were DANGEROUSLY close to having no-lynch. We were in the 11th hour and nobody was even close to having the needed number of votes. So excuuuse me if I figured I'd offer myself up AND give Town a handy-dandy guide to use forever after. I don't care what you or anyone else says....in games with closed or semi-closed set ups, my opinion is that A NO LYNCH = bad. At least you got some info with my lynch.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 14, 2010 15:23:37 GMT -5
But anyway, I'll vote for a better canidate if one comes up. As of right now the person I find (and have found, more and more) suspicious is Sach. I'm not surprised at all. You're suspicious of me because I've been critical of your strategy. --I've-- been critical of my strategy. I'm suspicious of you because you've been acting suspicious.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 14, 2010 15:30:37 GMT -5
In case you forget, I was suspicious of Inner Stickler the other Day, too, and even voted for him, but then he backpedeled furiously in his very next post, so I figured I'd let it go and unvoted.
Side note: Again, I ask what the hell..........it's been over 24 hours since this Day started and yet we haven't heard from a lot of people (storyteller, SisterCoyote, FCoD, Duvsie), even though they've been on many times since then (according to Who's Online). What are they waiting for? MentalGuy? Where are you? Mind telling us if you got any results last Night if you're a Detective?
Nobody seems to be talking much and yet it seems like everyone is okay with that. There are a possible NINE scum-like roles still in the game. Nine out of seventeen total. More than half. That means no matter who we vote for, we have a more than fifty percent chance of hitting someone scummy. No idea what the smaller, specific odds are of hitting an Undead person are (with a possible 3 ingame Undead out of 17 current players) but I'm sure someone who is better at math than I could say.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 14, 2010 15:45:02 GMT -5
Maybe if I become more aggressive in the Day and trying to get everyone to post, scum will be more apt to kill me off at Night. Hey, better me than some other role. If they're killing me, at least you know my useless (role) ass is taking up the kill spot and not a more important Town role. Scuuummm, oh scuummmmm....pretty please?
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Post by Holy Moley! on Aug 14, 2010 21:26:00 GMT -5
Nobody seems to be talking much and yet it seems like everyone is okay with that. I'm not "okay with that", but the sheer volume of data in this game seems overwhelming. Speaking personally, I don't think I "get" this game. Despite pretty much everything I thought in Day 1 having been proven wrong, I still think this is all about groups with different win conditions cooperating. Hell, there've been two explicit offers made to that end (although I grant one of them was by me, which probably doesn't count). Otherwise I simply don't see how any group is going to be able to make moves that are going to win the game. Victory will either be down to pure blind luck, or bad game balancing. If the right people get targeted / investigated / killed, a particular group might win. If not, they might lose. And I'm damned if I know who the "right people" are for each particular group. Town won the last three games, right? Anybody care to tell of anything in particular that they did to make this happen?
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Post by Red Skeezix on Aug 14, 2010 23:36:00 GMT -5
Assuming everyone's truthful and ignoring the Secret Special Powers, what I see as a likely result of mass claim is stalemate: The last three players are Townie, Wolf and Cabalist; Cabalist blocks the Wolf at Night and won't Lynch Townie, so no one further ever dies. Is this correct? (Of course a secret special power might break this deadlock; what are those powers anyway? ) I cannot even see how the outcome you've described would come about. Let alone how it is a likely outcome. Perhaps you would like to explain more fully on the subject. = Thinking about it. At this point I'd prefer it if the investigative powers which are exposed not reveal any town resultant investigations, outside of actual lynch pressure, or as part of their own role claim. It seems to me that doing so would create players for whom the wolves can target without fear of hitting a vampire, and with only one protective role the odds of them successfully killing a town investigated player increases.
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Post by Nanook on Aug 15, 2010 1:36:03 GMT -5
Actually, in the situation where it's Town, Wolf and Cabal, the Cabal would be voting for the Wolf. That's the only thing keeping him from winning. Town can't win, so she gets to play Kingmaker. Cabal votes Wolf, Wolf votes Cabal, and Town gets to decide who wins.
Moley, what do you expect the Wolves to do to help? Barring them all claiming honestly, they don't have any more information on who's undead and who's not than any given Town player does. Furthermore, how could you trust anything they did say? They aren't on Town's side.
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Post by septimus on Aug 15, 2010 4:25:26 GMT -5
Assuming everyone's truthful and ignoring the Secret Special Powers, what I see as a likely result of mass claim is stalemate: The last three players are Townie, Wolf and Cabalist; Cabalist blocks the Wolf at Night and won't Lynch Townie, so no one further ever dies. Is this correct? (Of course a secret special power might break this deadlock; what are those powers anyway? ) I cannot even see how the outcome you've described would come about. Let alone how it is a likely outcome. Perhaps you would like to explain more fully on the subject. Please bear the two (doubtful?) assumptions in mind. My statement has two parts: - (1) Reduction to three players (Townie, Wolf, Cabalist) is likely.
- (2) That three player ending is stalemate.
For (1), as the present Day's discussion suggests, all factions are likely to first cooperate in the destruction of the Undead. Suppose then at some Dusk one has 5 Townies, 3 Wolves and 1 Cabalist. Wolves night-kill Townie, Townies day-lynch Wolf. (If either side kills Cabalist instead, it loses.) After two more Dusks and a Dawn, there are 2 Townies, 1 Wolf, 1 Cabalist. No Lynch occurs; then Townie is Night-killed. This was my scenario though I'm quite willing to believe I've overlooked something basic. For (2), follow Nanook : Actually, in the situation where it's Town, Wolf and Cabal, the Cabal would be voting for the Wolf. That's the only thing keeping him from winning. Town can't win, so she gets to play Kingmaker. Cabal votes Wolf, Wolf votes Cabal, and Town gets to decide who wins. I assume Town would vote No Lynch rather than play Kingmaker, on theory that Stalemate is better than Loss.
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Post by septimus on Aug 15, 2010 4:39:38 GMT -5
After two more Dusks and a Dawn, there are 2 Townies, 1 Wolf, 1 Cabalist. No Lynch occurs; then Townie is Night-killed. Cabalist can block the Night-kill, but that just leads to a 2-1-1 stalemate instead of the 1-1-1 stalemate. For this reason, we might guess that any faction which now enthusiastically supports mass-claim has a Secret Power to overcome this stalemate. Nevertheless I'll join the mass-claim bandwagon, since most of us Townie have already been outed or killed. And discussion of mass-claim may be informative even if it doesn't go through. I'll start. I'm a Townie! Specific role to follow when mass-claim is actually in progress.
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Post by Holy Moley! on Aug 15, 2010 5:37:11 GMT -5
Actually, in the situation where it's Town, Wolf and Cabal, the Cabal would be voting for the Wolf. That's the only thing keeping him from winning. Town can't win, so she gets to play Kingmaker. Cabal votes Wolf, Wolf votes Cabal, and Town gets to decide who wins. Moley, what do you expect the Wolves to do to help? Barring them all claiming honestly, they don't have any more information on who's undead and who's not than any given Town player does. Furthermore, how could you trust anything they did say? They aren't on Town's side. Wolves have more info than town do about the vampires (indeed, the game seems to be set up that way - the detectives can't detect who killed someone if it's a vamp, for example). They know several people who can't be vampires more than town do, including all of the wolves. That just leaves whatever unconfirmed townies are about, one cabalist if it wasn't Moody, and the vamps themselves. The "trust" is based on mutual expediency, nothing more. Both sides need the vamps to be dead. Of course the wolf would have to be fairly convincing (meaning positive evidence that X is a vamp, not just "X hasn't claimed a town role and isn't a wolf"). What I'm saying is that if a wolf gets "outed", it's in their best interests for their side to work with the town to make sure a vamp gets it.
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Post by sachertorte on Aug 15, 2010 10:14:13 GMT -5
I thought of something yesterday that I didn't post because I needed to think about it more. Let me first say, that my initial reaction was "No way, that's a terrible idea," though I did not actually say these things to myself (I'm crazy, but not that crazy). Anyway, my point is what I'm suggesting runs counter to standard operating procedures, but I have yet to determine a downside to the suggestion.
(1) MentalGuy has claimed Detective. He has also pointed us to the lynch of Inner Stickler, which based on Inner Stickler's own posts is likely to be accurate. Hence, MentalGuy is almost certainly a Detective. The only alternative is suicidal Wolf, which is far from likely. (2) Idle Thoughts has information that states that there are 3 Detectives. Based on the who is dead of unknown alignment, it is not possible for there to be more than one dead detective. Therefore there are at least 2 living detectives. (3) Two people died last night.
I believe the optimal action is for MentalGuy to select his target for investigation and publicly announce that target so that the remaining detectives can investigate the other body. I know this runs counter to how we like to play, and I admit that my initial reaction to the idea was 'something has to be wrong with that' but I can't think of any reason for MentalGuy to not reveal his intentions. Detectives have Day actions. As we saw, MentalGuy revealed his result during the Night. He can do so again! There is nothing the Wolves (or any other scum) can do to prevent MentalGuy's action or benefit from his public disclosure. As far as I can see, the only ones who can optimize their actions are Detectives, which is a good thing.
Maybe I'm missing something basic, but I can't think of any reasons not to make sure we get the detectives to investigate both bodies. Well, I can think of one, but it's silly. We need to lynch Undead and finding out a wolf could serve as a distraction to that, but really, that's a silly reason to sub-optimize Town's Powers.
Seer: I'm NOT asking for a claim. But I will say I totally expected the Seer to claim just prior to Dawn. And for those of you who are confused by the apparent inconsistency about being forthright about information, the difference is the volatility of that information. If someone has an insurance policy against losing information to death (witches, scotsman) then sitting on information is a good thing. But if lots of information could be lost by death (seer) then sitting on information carries additional risk. The optimal time to claim/reveal is just before dawn (or if you're gonna get lynched), which dawn is a matter of personal choice and what what the information is.
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Post by Sister Coyote on Aug 15, 2010 13:20:34 GMT -5
Sorry I haven't been around much, but my folks are leaving today so I should have time to get caught up starting tomorrow.
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Post by MentalGuy on Aug 15, 2010 21:34:24 GMT -5
I too need to apologize for a couple of things. First is just not being around much for the last couple of days.
More importantly, though, is the fact that I forgot to send in my request. I actually logged in after Day's end on Wednesday to see what the result of my investigation was and was puzzled as to why I did not have a PM from Pleo. After I thought about it, I realized I had never actually sent in my request. I doubt I would have learned anything useful anyway, but I had intended to try.
I will investigate bufftabby's death toDay (and have already sent the request, so you don't have to worry about that). So any other detectives should investigate moody's.
It seems to me that we really need to get rid of the necromancer. Killing off a vampire will buy us a little time, but the necromancer is what will allow the undead to win early. Even though the wolves don't need to count the zombies in their win condition, they still need the necromancer dead so the undead don't beat them to their win condition.
So, if a wolf gets in the lynch lead toDay and they claim wolf, I am willing to let them live until the necromancer is dead. Of course, even if the wolves were willing to do this, they could only afford to have one or at the most two claim like that.
I think the seer should definitely claim near the end of Night toNight. The longer the list of players that we have that we know are not the necromancer, the better. If the seer happens to find the necromancer, all the better.
And after writing this, I looked back over the thread and realized I am repeating what Moley has already said better. But anyway, at this point, it is imperative that any information that would make a necromancer kill more likely be shared at the opportune time.
Hopefully, I will have time for a reread soon, but in the meantime, I will
Vote BillMc
Vote septimus
for the same reasons as the other Day and knowing that we need to give the lynch candidate time to claim.
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Post by septimus on Aug 16, 2010 1:51:11 GMT -5
An important lesson taught in the game of contract bridge, when in an odds-against situation, is: Figure out what arrangement you need to win; then assume that arrangement to be correct. Town has become the underdog. One thing we need is Detectives who are paying attention. Confirmed detectives are the clear logical kill candidates for Wolves, right? Yet they didn't kill our outed Detective on Night Two, and then they didn't kill him again on Night Three! Surely I'm not the only one who's very suspicious. I was giving him the benefit of the doubt (maybe Wolves did a double-think: if they failed to kill the Detective, we'd "know" he was fake and waste a Lynch on him) but no more.... He revealed early on Night Two, a decision we all seem to agree was poor, justifying that by non-Game busy-ness. And now he's too busy to Investigate! He may be a real Detective, but in that case (as hinted at by the contract bridge heuristic) Town is likely to lose anyway.BTW, wasn't it automatic for the confirmed Detective to announce publicly who he'd Investigate Day Three? I'm surprised no one commented on that. I will investigate bufftabby's death toDay (and have already sent the request, so you don't have to worry about that). So any other detectives should investigate moody's. Hopefully, I will have time for a reread soon, but in the meantime, I will Vote BillMc Vote septimus for the same reasons as the other Day and knowing that we need to give the lynch candidate time to claim. I now think bufftabby was killed by Wolves and that a real Detective should Investigate that. BTW, in noting that he had reasons to vote me "the other Day" Mental Guy glosses over that that was very early in Day One, more than three weeks ago using the solar clock. Vote Mental Guy
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Post by BillMc on Aug 16, 2010 4:56:45 GMT -5
Hopefully, I will have time for a reread soon, but in the meantime, I will [ Vote BillMcVote septimusfor the same reasons as the other Day and knowing that we need to give the lynch candidate time to claim. Your original votes for both septimus and myself are extremely weak. You accuse me of misrepresenting Sach. Sach and I may disagree on the statisical and probabability modelling of mafia, but I did not misrepresent him. And here you recast your weak votes with no further reasoning after three weeks?? This just stinks of opportunistic scummy voting. I too need to apologize for a couple of things. First is just not being around much for the last couple of days. More importantly, though, is the fact that I forgot to send in my request. I actually logged in after Day's end on Wednesday to see what the result of my investigation was and was puzzled as to why I did not have a PM from Pleo. After I thought about it, I realized I had never actually sent in my request. I doubt I would have learned anything useful anyway, but I had intended to try. I would like to believe that you are a Detective, and not a Wolf trying to buy cred by bussing IS, but you handily forget to submit an investigation yesterday. Did you not want to bus another wolf? In principal, I like Sach's plan for the Detectives, but it rests on one thing - that we totally trrust Mental Guy. Assuming the other two Detectives are still alive, and both investigate Moody, then they can corroborate each other - but there would be no validation of Mental's result until we lynched that person Tomorrow. I will investigate bufftabby's death toDay (and have already sent the request, so you don't have to worry about that). So any other detectives should investigate moody's. If you are a wolf, then maybe the wolves killed bufftabby, so by you "investigating" bufftabby you are hiding the wolf killer and can finger someone else instead. So, if a wolf gets in the lynch lead toDay and they claim wolf, I am willing to let them live until the necromancer is dead. Of course, even if the wolves were willing to do this, they could only afford to have one or at the most two claim like that. An interesting strategy - if one of your wolf buddies ends up as the lynch candidate you will let them off, and no doubt offer them up later as Bufftabby's killer. Equally interesting is that "All Zombies are destroyed when their Necromantic masters are killed, although this will not be revealed at the time of death." - so killing the Necromancer, removes the Zombies, and dramatically swings the balance of the game. And with the other Detectives/Seer being asked to claim just before dawn, the Undead/Wolves could put in late kills and remove them. I'd like to believe you are as you claim, a Detective, but your play is scummy.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 16, 2010 7:12:54 GMT -5
I, too (well, obviously, since I was just voting for him at the start of toDay), find it a little too convenient that MentalGuy apparently forgot all about submitting using his power last Night. It makes sense, however, if we imagine him a wolf. He's willing to give up one wolf to get Town cred....after all, there'd still be five left, right? Buthe'd be not so willing to either A. give up another wolf or B. false-accuse/guess at someone else being killer scum (because then there's a chance he'd be found to be lying).
Just not a point in his favor at all, IMO.
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Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 16, 2010 7:59:54 GMT -5
I, too (well, obviously, since I was just voting for him at the start of toDay), find it a little too convenient that MentalGuy apparently forgot all about submitting using his power last Night. It makes sense, however, if we imagine him a wolf. He's willing to give up one wolf to get Town cred....after all, there'd still be five left, right? Buthe'd be not so willing to either A. give up another wolf or B. false-accuse/guess at someone else being killer scum (because then there's a chance he'd be found to be lying). Just not a point in his favor at all, IMO. Actually, I disagree. If MentalGuy were a Wolf and false-claiming, and didn't want to give up another Wolf or target a player and hope it was killing Scum, it would have been simple enough to just say he had investigated [player that the Wolves didn't kill] and that the player in question was killed by a Vampire. Why pretend to have forgotten to submit an action, a claim guaranteed to generate exactly the degree of suspicion he has thus-far received toDay, when an easy out is available? If he's a Wolf, he KNOWS who was killed by the Wolves and can easily avoid investigating that player (same, in fact, if he's a Vampire). I guess MentalGuy could be Cabal, trying to string everyone along. That would put him in an awkward and dangerous position. But if he is, we'll find him out eventually. The biggest risk is that MentalGuy is the Necromancer, trying to use the Detective claim to stave off investigations and being lynched long enough to generate zombies sufficient to win the game. But if he is, he's taking a terrible risk that the Wolves, or hell, even the Vampires will kill him. Hm.
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Post by sachertorte on Aug 16, 2010 9:22:36 GMT -5
There seems to be some contention about the alignment of MentalGuy. Let's go through the cases:
MentalGuy is Undead: A compelling reason for a Vampire to claim Detective is that Wolves would attempt to kill said claimant, fail, and die. However, in order to plausibly pull off the claim the way MentalGuy did, he would be strongly compelled to have correct information. In other words, as a Vampire MentalGuy might know that MHaye wasn't killed by MentalGuy and use that information to his advantage in a false claim. BUT, MHaye could have been killed by a different Vampire and MentalGuy would not have the means to know which wolf killed him. Furthermore, with 3 living detectives, there was a 7 in 8 chance that someone would investigate MHaye and therefore be in a position to counter MentalGuy's story. If MentalGuy were a Necromancer, then the gambit makes even less sense. MentalGuy can only be Undead if the Undead secret power allowed him to know who killed MHaye. Otherwise, the probability of his being exposed was very high.
MentalGuy is Cabal: Same situation. We have MentalGuy claiming to be a Detective with actionable and verifiable information. Unless the secret power covers this, MentalGuy cannot be Cabal.
MentalGuy is a Wolf: This is the only plausible non-Town role for MentalGuy. As a Wolf, they would see that there was a 7/8 chance that MHaye would be investigated. As wolves they would also know which wolf killed MHaye (Inner Stickler) so that they could claim with correct information. (n.b., earlier I had alluded to the fact that MentalGuy gave up Inner Stickler for no gain. But now I realize that based on the odds, giving up the wolf who almost certainly would be exposed, isn't giving up much at all.) However, the fact remains that by false claiming, the wolves would have given Town the information necessary to lynch Inner Stickler, without exposing a real Detective. That's giving up something for free. Okay, so there's the townie cred thing, but really, was MentalGuy in a perilous situation? By protecting the real Detectives from claiming, the Wolves put themselves in the position where the Detectives are still hidden and capable of investigating the wolf kills. Furthermore, MentalGuy's lie will be exposed eventually and most importantly, right now we don't want to be lynching wolves anyway. Voting to lynch MentalGuy now is terrible, even if he were a werewolf.
If there is residual paranoia about MentalGuy, then I suggest that Nanook assign MentalGuy his investigation target (randomly). Then the other Detectives can investigate based on that. I suggest a biased coin that weighs more heavily on investigating the opposite target as MentalGuy, but has a small chance of investigating the same target as Mental Guy. Maybe 75-25?
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Post by The Real FCOD on Aug 16, 2010 9:33:13 GMT -5
You know, something that's been bothering me is that I haven't noticed anyone talking about how there have only been two kills per night. Shouldn't we have three if Idle's list is correct?
I can see how MentalGuy could be a wolf playing a gambit to gain townie cred, but I don't buy it fully. Like sachertorte said I don't think the wolves would have gained enough from that play. Right now we need to try to find the Necromancer.
--FCOD
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Post by Sister Coyote on Aug 16, 2010 9:43:59 GMT -5
You know, something that's been bothering me is that I haven't noticed anyone talking about how there have only been two kills per night. Shouldn't we have three if Idle's list is correct? I've been wondering about this too, actually. I think I see three options: either someone isn't killing, the witches have been successfully protecting, or two kills have been on the same person each Night. I keep going back and forth about this; yes, it would be a hell of a way to gain cred, but on the other hand, eventually he'd run out of Wolves. This. Unfortunately, I have been through all four Days and still have no insights as to who this person might be. --FCOD[/quote]
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Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 16, 2010 10:10:49 GMT -5
You know, something that's been bothering me is that I haven't noticed anyone talking about how there have only been two kills per night. Shouldn't we have three if Idle's list is correct?--FCOD I don't think this is particularly remarkable. Since the two Vampires cannot coordinate kills with either one another or the Wolves, the likelihood of overlap between killers is fairly high. Plus, there are enough ways that kills can be averted - Witch protection, Vamp targets Vicar, and so on - that I'd think the expected kills per Night is almost definitely < 3 and may be very close to 2.
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Post by The Real FCOD on Aug 16, 2010 10:13:56 GMT -5
I suppose the Vicar could have been targeted by each Vampire separately, so yeah out of three nights I guess it's not that far-fetched.
Oh well, I thought I was on to something there for a minute!
--FCOD
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Post by Duvsie on Aug 16, 2010 12:13:46 GMT -5
The rap on the knuckles has been duly noted. I’ve been following. Day 2 and Day 3 were foregone conclusions, Day 1 was really spent watching the interactions of various players. I´ve never played in a non straight town vs scum game before, so it was interesting to see the permutations of what’s been happening and who is suspicious of whom.
As far as I can determine the last freemason is in a rather difficult position, especially with the omega wolf still being at large. That is assuming that neither Ed, nor Moody, bufftabby or IS were the omega wolf (there’s nothing in the rules to state that the omega cannot NK only that they cannot become the alpha wolf, though as Sach pointed out Ed did investigate as wolf by the witches). Though in this case, again assuming that the omega wolf is still around, there is nothing to stop the rest of the wolves, cabal and undead claiming freemason too, at which point it would be a case of wading through them all and lynching each and every one until we get to the truth, by which time the undead would have surely won. So I’m not sure a mass claim would be a total success.
With 2 deaths every night, I’m inclined to believe that the cabalists got lucky Night1 and blocked someone who happened to be performing a NK, they saw the result Day2 and kept on blocking same said person, hence resulting in only 2 deaths per night. I can’t quite figure out another explanation for it unless some one/team decided not to NK, though why they’d decide on that I’m not sure. I doubt that the witches have randomly protected a NK target, especially with the high number of players at the start of the game to choose from and as Eureka said Day2 that they´d protected a witch N1 (this is possibly the only night that any of the killers may have targeted a protected player, however it kinda seemed obvious that they’d protect either Nanook or Eureka if they were both telling the truth IMO). IS´s threat of targeting Mental Guy or Nanook on Day3 seems to have been a call to the vampires for help, however neither one died. Though on rereading the rules with the vampires roles, I see that storyteller points out that the vampires cannot co ordinate their kills. Still, it seems strange to me that we have not had one single night with 3 deaths.
Mentalguys behavior is rather suspicious and is ringing all sorts of alarm bells, but I don’t see the advantage he/the wolves would have gained from bussing IS in the first place.
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Post by Nanook on Aug 16, 2010 13:41:00 GMT -5
Why are people missing the obvious answer of "one of three killing roles decided to flip a coin and try and out guess the witches protection when two were exposed" for why there's only been two kills a Night?
Lynching MentalGuy makes no sense at all. As sach broke down, the only way his false claim works at all with the Inner Stickler lynch is if he's a Wolf. Remember, IS didn't even attempt to counter his claim. If he's a Wolf, the simplest way to handle not wanting to bus yet another team mate would be to simply choose the body the wolves didn't kill and say that they were killed by a Vamp. No fuss, no one finds it suspicious, and off we go. I find his statement of forgetting, as much of a face palm moment as it is, making it more likely he's Town instead of the other way around.
That post bothers me duvsie. Especailly the part about the Cabalists. It just strikes me as the sort of thought process a Cabal member would have. When I was Cabal and false claimed Witch, I used(what appeared to be) a successful block as a way to try and fake an investigation. The Cabal are far more focused on who they block and the power of said block than Town members are generally.
Vote: duvsie
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Post by Duvsie on Aug 16, 2010 14:02:32 GMT -5
That may be so for you, but it's quite a logical thought process for me. However, if I was a cabalist, out of all the players to vote for, I doubt very much that Stanislaus would have bothered to use a vote on me Day one...and I can assure you I wouldn't have bothered voting for a zombie either, especially if he furthered my wincon.
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Post by Duvsie on Aug 16, 2010 14:17:44 GMT -5
and it's just occurred to me that I'm getting all the wincons mixed up :s
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Post by septimus on Aug 16, 2010 14:58:34 GMT -5
However, if I was a cabalist, out of all the players to vote for, I doubt very much that Stanislaus would have bothered to use a vote on me Day one...and I can assure you I wouldn't have bothered voting for a zombie either, especially if he furthered my wincon. Mewonders if the lady doth protest too much. Both your vote to Lynch zombie, and stanislaus' vote against you seemed fluffy silliness at the time, but now I'm wondering if it was staged. The two of you exchanged five messages in the Day One thread over a 46-minute period on 27 July beginning with #262. Looking at the timestamps on your other messages, both your on-line times vary(*), but you both remained on-line for at least 2.5 or 3 hours to post again after that exchange on 27 July. (* - in my timezone, I see only 3 pm, 12 pm, 2 am, 5 am posts from duvsie beside the suspicious 5pm-9pm exchange with stanislaus.) It's not much to go on, but I was already suspicious (indeed have voted to Lynch duvsie previously), mainly for Lurking and lurkish-like comments. Vote duvsie
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Karma:
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Post by Gir! on Aug 16, 2010 18:13:46 GMT -5
That may be so for you, but it's quite a logical thought process for me. However, if I was a cabalist, out of all the players to vote for, I doubt very much that Stanislaus would have bothered to use a vote on me Day one Why not? Ed the Wolf did it, why not Stanislaus the Cabalist? What is it that makes you think that Cabal-blocking every Night is that most likely possibility out of these (I hope I linked that right): Why assume it was the same reason every Night anyway? I'd have guessed that 1 or 2 Nights it was doubling up and that at least 1 Night someone tried to hit a Witch. It's certainly a possibility that the Cabal have blocked the same person each Night and that that person is a killer, but you appear to think that it's the most likely, so why? I can't decide if this feels more like you're pretending not to know the Cabal win condition, or if you're letting it slip that you have an Undead win condition and you're a Vampire who's been blocked every Night. I'm the exact opposite of septimus about this, I had planned on not voting for you if I could come up with any other possibility at all* because I dislike lurker-lynching (it gives little-if-any information, and even moreso with the delayed reveal), but now: vote duvsie*The best possibility I had so far was septimus himself based on Day 1 stuff, but while it was okay for Day 1, not so much for Day 4.
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Post by MentalGuy on Aug 16, 2010 18:55:38 GMT -5
I have no way of proving my Towniness and any argument I make is going to sound self-serving. I would ask that players think about the arguments others are making concerning me and ask if they really think I am undead. And really that should be the only reason you would be voting for me at this time.
Players voting Duvsie, you seem to think she is Cabal. If so, is she the player we should be voting now. I know the Cabal can block powers, but can't she wait? I really think finding undead (especially the necromancer) is paramount at this point.
The players that I have voted for say my votes are weak and they may not be the strongest, but I have not seen anything to exonerate them and do not see any reason not to vote them if I have multiple votes and a majority is required to lynch. I do plan on placing some more votes as I reread.
My thoughts have been going back and forth on septimus. My first thought after seeing his reaction was to think he was a wolf, and that the wolf team was trying to set me up for a lynch. Then I thought that that did not make sense, since if he was a wolf, he would know that I am a detective and that the undead are a more pressing concern. Then I realized that the wolves are in a tough spot. They really need to get rid of the necromancer, but the more times they go after them, the more detective investigations they are allowing. I am leaning toward septimus not being a wolf, but I do think it possible.
septimus, I was not too busy to investigate, I simply thought I had sent the PM and I had not. Now the general busyness of my life at the time probably contributed to that, but I was not "too busy to investigate". Also, why didn't you comment on me not announcing my target on Day 3?
On preview, I see that Kat has voted Duvsie, with the possibility that she is undead. If you think that, I can see voting for her, but if you really think she is Cabal, do you think you should be voting her?
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