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Post by Archangel on Nov 21, 2010 12:28:18 GMT -5
Sorry, what I meant to say about the movies was that I'd seen the newest one yesterday, and have seen all of them, some of them multiple times. I am jealous. Is this one part 3D too? If it is I might go to see it at the IMAX (and nap during the boring bits when they are fighting for no purpose in the wilderness). I believe it is, though we didn't see it on IMAX. The purposeless fighting in the wilderness took at least 45 minutes, by my count, so a nap is recommended. Also, Aberforth is sorely missing, and the section where they were caught and taken to the Malfoy's dungeon was lacking any suspense or menace. One of my less favorite HP movies, by far.
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Post by severe delays on Nov 21, 2010 12:31:35 GMT -5
I have been wondering if there is mileage in unvoting at the last minute if you know you're nominee is not going to go out. From what I can gather if you voted for a Housemate and then unvoted them at the last minute you'd lose your house 2 points. If you voted for someone from another House and then unvoted them at the last minute you'd neither gain nor lose points for your House.
So if you are the only person voting for Joe Bloggs and it's obvious that Josephine Bloggs is going to be voted out then it might be expedient to withdraw your vote at the last minute in order to minimise your losses. Does that make any sense whatsoever? Of course, it is only likely to work when there are a large group of unknowns because then you have a bigger chance that your original vote was for a non-Housemate. Later in the game there are greater odds of accidentally picking your own Housemates and consequently greater likelihood of losing House points.
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Post by Archangel on Nov 21, 2010 17:52:30 GMT -5
Severe Delays, I think you're right about that in the broad sense. OTOH (and I'm not arguing against it, I'm weighing the good and the bad) there is knowledge to be gained by not unvoting too.
Okay, I'm having trouble thinking this through because people are standing around me talking loudly. But if we do the unvoting if we're not on a leading lynch candidate...we end up with either a wash (if we voted and unvoted a member of another team) or -2 (if we screwed up and voted our own team member).
If we don't unvote (and we're not on a leading lynch candidate), we end up with +5 for our team if we guessed well, or - 5 for our team if we guessed poorly.
Okay, so it's less risky to do it your way (unvote), and it may be easier to learn from the point values. (For example, if I unvote and my team ends up with a point total that's not divisible by five, I can make a guess that I accidentally voted a member of my own team, although of course, it may not have been me doing it but another person.)
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Romola
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Post by Romola on Nov 21, 2010 19:29:57 GMT -5
Of course, if yours is the only unvote this month, and you turned out to have been voting a member of your own team, yours will be the only team with points not divisible by 5 and we'll all know what team you are on.
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Post by Archangel on Nov 21, 2010 22:11:29 GMT -5
Of course, if yours is the only unvote this month, and you turned out to have been voting a member of your own team, yours will be the only team with points not divisible by 5 and we'll all know what team you are on. You're right. So that will possibly make people reluctant to be the first unvote.
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Total Ullz
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Post by Total Ullz on Nov 22, 2010 3:49:44 GMT -5
Ulla can confirm this when she gets online, but I think the points are cumulative. So: Vote for a teammate: -5 for a total of (-5) Unvote that teammate: +3 (-2) Vote a non-teammate: +5 (+3) Unvote that player: -5 (-2) Vote a player from another team: +5 (+3) That player is lynched: +5 (+8) Confirming Having a co-mod is the best
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Nov 22, 2010 3:53:59 GMT -5
The biggest question for me is, (in a single vote situation with no unvoting) whether voting for a teammate who then gets lynched nets you -5, -10, or -15. How about this one? (color added to quote)
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Total Ullz
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Post by Total Ullz on Nov 22, 2010 4:02:54 GMT -5
The biggest question for me is, (in a single vote situation with no unvoting) whether voting for a teammate who then gets lynched nets you -5, -10, or -15. How about this one? (color added to quote) -15 You would have (-5) for the vote and (-10) for the lynch = (-15)
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Total Ullz
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Post by Total Ullz on Nov 22, 2010 4:21:32 GMT -5
Vote count - September (2):
Inner Stickler/Jack (2) - Romola #111, Cookies #122
Severe Delays (2) - Julie #108, Zuma #139 Archangel (2) - MentalGuy #116, Severe Delays #143 Zuma (1) - Natlaw #80 Romola (1) - Moody Mitchy #113 Cookies(1) - Inner Stickler/Jack #123 Natlaw (1) - Archangel #145
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Post by Sister Coyote on Nov 22, 2010 10:47:05 GMT -5
Sorry, I was away all weekend. Why are we voting IS again?
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Nov 22, 2010 11:50:46 GMT -5
According to the itemized vote count summary, only I'm voting for him. As I said when I voted for him, I have no good reason.
According to the itemized vote count, Romola is voting for Moody. So either there was an error in the vote count or there is voting hi jinx afoot.
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Nov 22, 2010 11:51:52 GMT -5
Nevermind. I was misreading the vote count.
I still have no good reason. Not sure what Romola's reasoning is.
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Post by Inner Stickler on Nov 22, 2010 12:22:44 GMT -5
Because Cap'n Pinkies never signed up, apparently. I'm not sure why Romola has decided I'm the next best thing but whatever.
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Nov 22, 2010 12:55:08 GMT -5
To be honest, I didn't realize that Romola already had a vote on you when I cast mine. But anyway, aren't we in a 3-way tie to lynch? There's nothing in the rules about the first person to acquire the votes in the case of a tie gets lynched or anything.
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Post by Inner Stickler on Nov 22, 2010 13:09:17 GMT -5
Yes, it's quite exciting. I'm very intrigued to see how everyone decides to resolve the tie absent a declaration from Ulla about tiebreaking. It would amuse me greatly to see a 4-way tie and one member of each house lynched.
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Post by severe delays on Nov 22, 2010 13:35:14 GMT -5
Yes, it's quite exciting. I'm very intrigued to see how everyone decides to resolve the tie absent a declaration from Ulla about tiebreaking. It would amuse me greatly to see a 4-way tie and one member of each house lynched. That also appeals to my sense of mischief but I got the impression that in the event of a tie random.org will be used to decide one lynch candidate.
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Natlaw
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Post by Natlaw on Nov 22, 2010 15:41:08 GMT -5
So we've got: zuma: Lynch Gryffindor because I'm not Natlaw: Lynch Gryffindor but zuma might be one archangel: Lynch Natlaw because he's probably not Gryffindor and neither am I (makes no sense?) The rest: No reason for their votes.
And we have a tie. I think it's probably not a good idea to cross vote because if you both are the same House you lose -4 even if you unvote. The Month ends tomorrow I think? Anyway I'll break the tie: Unvote zuma Vote Inner Stickler for no specific reason but it doesn't oppose the vote of archangel. Not voting severe delays to avoid voting with zuma although I don't see a tactical reason why is should do that.
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Natlaw
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Post by Natlaw on Nov 22, 2010 15:42:28 GMT -5
Yuck, messed up the bold tags. Note to self: yes, you need to preview always. You'll make stupid mistakes if you don't!
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Post by Sister Coyote on Nov 22, 2010 15:59:05 GMT -5
So I guess now we wait to see which house has a non-five number?
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Post by severe delays on Nov 22, 2010 16:03:35 GMT -5
So I guess now we wait to see which house has a non-five number? Possibly. Others might unvote in an attempt to minimise House losses. Now that Natlaw has done it the risk of exposure would be less. The more people who do it the less exposure there is. Of course, that also means that there will be greater confusion when it comes to working out who is in which House!
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Post by Renata on Nov 22, 2010 16:36:15 GMT -5
I will vote Natlaw, because I'm a wimp and want to limit my exposure to loss of House points more than I want to make a go at gaining them.
vote: Natlaw[/color]
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Natlaw
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Post by Natlaw on Nov 22, 2010 16:49:37 GMT -5
So I guess now we wait to see which house has a non-five number? What if we only get told which House the lynched player was sorted to and no points? Or perhaps we also get his point count? Or perhaps only the order of the Houses by point (but not the point totals)? But I don't think we should just wait and let the lynch happen. I mean there is no reason for the player up for lynch to not claim something right? Running some numbers: claim truthfully and everyone acts only to gain points (no WIFOM): -all other houses vote the claiming player +30 (minus 0 to 6 points if they voted for their own house previously = +24-30 points -the House of the claimed player unvotes if needed (-4 to 0 points) and vote for another House +15 = 11-15 points So in that case it leads to a 9 to 19 point loss for the claiming House (besides the player loss). OK claiming is not a good idea (but false claiming might be). Not claiming: means the votes probably won't move much. For simplicity everyone else is voting for another House: -all other House: +15 -two of the house of the lynched player are voting for the : -30 and +5 for the lynched player. So now we have a 40 point difference for the House. Assuming only one of your House other is voting for it still a twenty point difference which is worse than the worst case scenario for claiming. So unless you're absoluty sure (but how can you be?) no-one of your own house is voting for you, it's better to claim I think. It does risk outing the others of your House which might be worse in the long run.
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Natlaw
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Post by Natlaw on Nov 22, 2010 16:52:17 GMT -5
I will vote Natlaw, because I'm a wimp and want to limit my exposure to loss of House points more than I want to make a go at gaining them. Is that because I want to lynch Gryffindor or because you think I am Gryffindor (for voting zuma)? Or do you just want avoid voting for the to be lynched player?
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Post by Renata on Nov 22, 2010 17:15:10 GMT -5
I will vote Natlaw, because I'm a wimp and want to limit my exposure to loss of House points more than I want to make a go at gaining them. Is that because I want to lynch Gryffindor or because you think I am Gryffindor (for voting zuma)? Or do you just want avoid voting for the to be lynched player? Primarily I want to avoid voting for the lynched player. For the rest -- what do you think?
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Total Ullz
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Post by Total Ullz on Nov 22, 2010 18:01:17 GMT -5
Vote count - September (3):
Inner Stickler/Jack (3) - Romola #111, Cookies #122, Natlaw #166
Severe Delays (2) - Julie #108, Zuma #139 Archangel (2) - MentalGuy #116, Severe Delays #143 Natlaw (2) - Archangel #145, Renata #170 Zuma (1) - Natlaw #80 Romola (1) - Moody Mitchy #113 Cookies(1) - Inner Stickler/Jack #123
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Romola
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Post by Romola on Nov 22, 2010 18:12:50 GMT -5
My vote for Jack was utterly random, btw, no reason whatsoever.
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Post by Archangel on Nov 22, 2010 20:24:11 GMT -5
So we've got: zuma: Lynch Gryffindor because I'm not Natlaw: Lynch Gryffindor but zuma might be one archangel: Lynch Natlaw because he's probably not Gryffindor and neither am I (makes no sense?) The rest: No reason for their votes.
And we have a tie. I think it's probably not a good idea to cross vote because if you both are the same House you lose -4 even if you unvote. The Month ends tomorrow I think? Anyway I'll break the tie: Unvote zuma Vote Inner Stickler for no specific reason but it doesn't oppose the vote of archangel. Not voting severe delays to avoid voting with zuma although I don't see a tactical reason why is should do that.Natlaw, if that's what I said it does indeed make no sense, and it's just a typo. What I meant was that I thought you voting Zuma after he said he was not a Gryffindor indicated to me that you were more likely to be a Gryffindor.
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Post by zuma on Nov 23, 2010 7:12:46 GMT -5
Hrm, now that natlaw has unvoted me, tomorrow we will all know whether or not natlaw and I are on the same team. I'm kind of tempted to throw a bunch of votes/unvotes around, just to muddy the waters. But I think I will just let things play out. If we are on the same team, we're probably both dead. But if we're not, I will of course know she is not on my team and will be pushing hard for her lynch tomorrow. She'd have no choice but to do likewise.
I think I'd win out because my non-griffindor claim makes her a better lynch target tomorrow. Unless I am missing something.
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Nov 23, 2010 7:23:16 GMT -5
Interesting that Natlaw has now raised the stakes for those of us on the particular bandwagon he has chose to join. As the game progresses and people start to ferret out who is who, that could get VERY interesting in its implications.
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Post by zuma on Nov 23, 2010 7:54:13 GMT -5
Yeah, well my stakes have been raised even more! But I think I'm willing to let the day play out. Honestly, if tomorrow it turns out natlaw and I are on the same team, just vote both of us out, there would be no reason not to. But if we're not, I will make the case (if it's not obvious) that she is the better kill tomorrow.
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