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Post by Sister Coyote on May 20, 2011 16:50:28 GMT -5
Current (Unchecked) Vote Count:
Meeko (7,7) BillMc [72] Guiri [108] Archangel [116] JustBeingGinger [215], gnarlycharlie [233], septimus [237], Dirx [238] Archangel (2,3) Metallic Squink [121], Ma'at [232], Suburban Plankton [235,239] Lightfoot (2,2) CatInASuit [165] Honest Moley [211] Guiri (1,1) Rysto [171] Rysto (1,1) Lightfoot [183] septimus (1,1) Suburban Plankton [239] BillMc (0,2) Honest Moley [81 196] Ma’at [103 193] Metallic Squink (0,1) Septimus [112,237] GnarlyCharlie (0,1) JustBeingGinger [173 215] JustBeingGinger (0,1) CatInASuit [64 165] CatInASuit (0,1) Septimus [47 112] colby11 (1,1): Meeko [13]
With these votes, Meeko will be lynched.
ToDay will end in a little over three hours
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Post by Ma'at on May 20, 2011 17:27:25 GMT -5
So, is this when those not voting for Meeko hope he comes out with a claim?
Meeko?
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Merestil Haye
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Post by Merestil Haye on May 20, 2011 17:45:48 GMT -5
Here is the post: D2.P228 **************************************************** Trying to catch up on the events of the Day here. Vote Captain Pinkies It appears that he is holding back information that could be helpful to TOWN. So until he reveals his PM with the forced vote and or claims. This will be my vote. *************************************************** Ok. I have to say that this still gives the impression that you would be willing to unvote if Pinkies posted the PM requiring him to vote, and failure to do that is why people have been looking at you askance. Maybe that isn't the way you see it, but it is the impression your words create - on me, at least. I can see someone thinking like that. Thanks.
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Post by Holy Moley! on May 20, 2011 17:59:51 GMT -5
But this brings up another point worth investigating. Given the two options of fluiddruid or Pinkies, which one would the scum prefer to see lynched. Pinkies - the walking anti-town distraction who is likely to get himself lynched later on Fluiddruid - claimed 3rd party and looking to assist the town with a power Both are anti-town, but neither of them are pro-scum. Looking at it, I think the scum would have much preferred to see Fluiddruid swing than Pinkies. PFKs are anti-Town. A lynch of a PFK is something a Mafiate can participate in with a clear conscience (ie you're not either bussing a teammate or lynching someone you know is innocent) and look pro-Town. Win-win. The trouble is that, depending on the circumstances, it may also be correct play for a Townie to lynch a PFK over a distracting Townie. So we can't conclude that all the late Fluid voters are Mafia aligned. (I know I'm not.) Honest Moley, I see you were a late Fluid voter. Thus I summon you. (Well, you did ask.) Feel free to expound on whatever takes your fancy. I can't really expound on anything more than I said at the time. Better an admitted third-party than someone I thought was town. What that says about BillMC right now I don't know, but nobody's contradicted anything he's said yet. There are going to be at least four scum in a twenty-two man game if it's not horribly one-sided. There is no way that we're going to lynch scum, under these circumstances, with four votes. Right now I'm trying to work out what the hell to do. Is there anybody else online right now, preferably townies who would avoid making the same mistake THREE times in a row, so that we can work something out here?
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Post by JustBeingGinger on May 20, 2011 18:11:43 GMT -5
I am online right now. I maybe be insane but I am here!
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Post by JustBeingGinger on May 20, 2011 18:12:14 GMT -5
That was towards you @Honestmoley
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Post by Ma'at on May 20, 2011 18:23:11 GMT -5
I think the problem, Moley, is that there are a lot of “mediocre” scum candidates, but no strong ones. Maybe a person has done one or two scummy things, but have done 5 or 6 townie things to cover up their mistakes. We’ve had 5 days to talk and try to figure something out, and haven’t been very successful. I’ve read many of the other arguments regarding others’ votes, and none of them resonate all that strongly with me.
On the bright side, Bill seems so sure that Meeko is scum that it would not surprise me at all if Meeko *is* scum. This ends up telling us nothing about Bill’s alignment (could be his excellent scum-hunting skills, could be that scum has decided they can afford to sacrifice one of their own), but at least town are likely to have one less scum on their hands and perhaps can then go back and look at his previous posts to see what might be discerned.
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Post by Holy Moley! on May 20, 2011 18:40:33 GMT -5
I think the problem, Moley, is that there are a lot of “mediocre” scum candidates, but no strong ones. Maybe a person has done one or two scummy things, but have done 5 or 6 townie things to cover up their mistakes. We’ve had 5 days to talk and try to figure something out, and haven’t been very successful. I’ve read many of the other arguments regarding others’ votes, and none of them resonate all that strongly with me. On the bright side, Bill seems so sure that Meeko is scum that it would not surprise me at all if Meeko *is* scum. This ends up telling us nothing about Bill’s alignment (could be his excellent scum-hunting skills, could be that scum has decided they can afford to sacrifice one of their own), but at least town are likely to have one less scum on their hands and perhaps can then go back and look at his previous posts to see what might be discerned. Ma'at - then please meet me half way and vote somebody for reasons other than simply being uncooperative, which is what most of the reasons seem to boil down to! I strongly feel as though we're about to make the same mistake a third time. I think Lightfoot is the best option we have right now. Of all the townies who haven't helped very much in scumhunting and aren't giving off town tells, (s)he seems to be the most prominent after BillMC (and it appears I was at least right about his not being town.)
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Post by Sister Coyote on May 20, 2011 18:46:01 GMT -5
ToDay will end in approximately one hour and fifteen minutes
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Post by Ma'at on May 20, 2011 18:46:50 GMT -5
I'm currently voting for Archangel, not Meeko, mainly for her vote on Meeko with no backup (she hasn't been back to the thread since her vote, and probably sees no need to be, since she is not a lynch leader).
If I thought Lightfoot was scummy, would be more than happy to vote for her, but I'm not comfortable making a last minute (or last hour) vote change for someone that I'm not all that sure about, especially when it seems a little late in the day to try to get people to start switching votes to someone that hasn't garnered much suspicion.
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Post by storyteller0910 on May 20, 2011 19:04:08 GMT -5
But I'm not certain that the Scum didn't kill fluiddruid thinking that she might be a win-stealing PFK, and I think it's premature at this point to dismiss that possibility out of hand. It's not premature. It's 100% crazy to think that the Scum would have killed fluiddruid. There is no way they did it. Unless the game is atrociously well-designed, even a win-stealing PFK isn't going to steal a win on Day Three, and the Scum handing a gift like that to the Town when there are (presumably) Doctors and Cops and Vigilantes and Masons and whatever else out there to be targeted makes zero sense. There's addressing every possibility, and then there's addressing nonsensical possibilities, which is what I think you're doing here. Makes me think you're probably Town, though I said that about Bill on the basis of Ed's ostensible breadcrumb and look where that got me. --- In other news, Meeko has gone from on the bubble to the definitive candidate for lynching in about thirty seconds. Meeko needs to claim ASAP.
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Post by LightFoot on May 20, 2011 19:04:31 GMT -5
I think Lightfoot is the best option we have right now. Of all the townies who haven't helped very much in scumhunting and aren't giving off town tells, (s)he seems to be the most prominent after BillMC (and it appears I was at least right about his not being town.) I say your name today, you show up and place a vote on me, and now you want to throw me under the bus to save Meeko? Needless to say I am against the idea . I'm only here for a minute or two I have to lock up and head home. I'm not sure if I will make it online before EOD- Here's hoping the correct person gets lynched for the correct reasons.
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Merestil Haye
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Post by Merestil Haye on May 20, 2011 19:21:29 GMT -5
I've finished a reread of the thread, and am left with headaches, questions and doubts. The headache arises from a residuum of the eyedrops that dilated my pupils. (First reactions to the pretty pictures of my eyeballs was that there's nothing glaringly obviously wrong. Final results will take about two weeks and involve a detailed comparison of the ones taken last year.) I was suspicious of Meeko, mainly for refusing to participate in the Mafia hunting. As I read through the rest of the thread, my perspective shifted a bit, and I'm no longer as suspicious as I was. I was also a little suspicious of Ginger for her inadequate justification of her vote shift Yesterday, but she has answered my doubts. Suburban Plankton made a case against Septimus in D03.239. I've verified that Septimus's only substantive mentions of Meeko Today were the ones cited by SP, and agree that they don't adequately justify his vote. Of those cases, the one that I am most suspicious of at this point is Septimus. Vote: Septimus
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Post by Ma'at on May 20, 2011 19:30:11 GMT -5
I have to leave for the day, and doubt I will be back on before end of Day. I find Meeko not being around at end of day to try to defend himself a little odd. I know we all get busy, but not even a peep? I find Bill's complete (almost cocky?) confidence in his vote of Meeko odd as well…. And given the fact that I'll be on plane at day end..... it is time for a "Ta Daaa" moment and for me to reveal some additional information Colby blocked ALL kills on Night 1 The Scum most definitely killed Ed - because I killed Colby. Killing Alice/Colby and replacing her was my goal. I have done this, I am now Town. We can lynch Meeko, or even Squink, and if I am wrong, then the vig can quite happily kill me, as I doubt the Doc would protect me if I was proven wrong.(underlining mine) I'm right, or you can kill me - really? Does this strike anyone else as odd? Anyway, just thought I would leave you all with that. Will be on at some point later to see what's happened.
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Post by Holy Moley! on May 20, 2011 19:41:38 GMT -5
I think Lightfoot is the best option we have right now. Of all the townies who haven't helped very much in scumhunting and aren't giving off town tells, (s)he seems to be the most prominent after BillMC (and it appears I was at least right about his not being town.) I say your name today, you show up and place a vote on me, and now you want to throw me under the bus to save Meeko? Needless to say I am against the idea . I'm only here for a minute or two I have to lock up and head home. I'm not sure if I will make it online before EOD- Here's hoping the correct person gets lynched for the correct reasons. Actually I placed the vote on you last night, although the way things are going, I don't think you need to worry. Turns out the one person I was fairly sure was scum, just turned townie on us.
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Post by storyteller0910 on May 20, 2011 19:41:47 GMT -5
I continue to find Meeko himself opaque at all times. His approach confounds analysis. I think – depending on whether he flips Town or Scum – it might be more useful to use what little time I have here looking at how others have attempted to analyze him toDay.
So.
Votes forMeeko, and justifications therefor:
BILLMC leads off, at #72. His reasoning is not simple nonparticipation, as Ma’at has suggested. It is two-pronged: (1) he finds Meeko’s claim of having been forced to vote for a dead player unlikely; and (2) he views Meeko’s participation in this game as having been unlike Meeko’s usual self. I agree with him, more or less, on the latter. Regarding #1, though, I think Meeko’s case is strengthened by the fact that his vote for Colby was represented in the official vote count. If Meeko is just making up the vote-purchase, how did he know that this would happen and support his position? Had Meeko voted for Colby and had it not show up in the official count, I think we’d have lynched Meeko for sure. This makes me think Meeko is NOT lying about having his vote bought. I don’t think that’s really dispositive about his alignment, though.
GUIRI at #108. It’s a long post, full of multiquoting, but here’s the money quote:
Eh. OK.
ARCHANGEL votes for Meeko at #115 (third vote! Hooray!). There is no justification given for this vote, except insofar as Archangel frames it as a way to protect Bill (who at this moment is tied with Meeko with two votes). This is a hinky vote. I have been inclined to view Archangel as Town so far, but I think she warrants a much closer look on the basis of this action. Even if you believe Bill to be Town, making a vote purely to protect him that early in the Day, with so few votes involved, is an over-reacting way to handle it (metallicsquink makes a similar observation, by the way, at 121).
And then… nothing, for quite some time. Meeko clearly makes an effort to participate in here, offering FOSes and such. Bill claims, and Moley and Ma’at both unvote. Lightfoot gets a vote, such that it’s now Meeko (3), Lightfoot (2) – as of post #214.
Suddenly, here comes JustBeingGinger, with a vote for Meeko. Text:
This makes no sense. There is no reason that Meeko defending himself should warrant a vote. And Meeko explicitly states “I am Town.” The second statement, about the PM, was clearly meant to refer to the voting restriction PM but the whole “betrayal” thing is a reach – Meeko gave all a lie detector should need by saying “I am Town.”
gnarlycharly adds on at #233:
I think this is an inaccurate description of Meeko. In his own Meeko way, Meeko has clearly expressed who he considers suspicious: BillMc.
Septimus votes for Meeko at #237, thusly:
I’m running out of time, but this is a strange post… it reads as shady. Plankton expresses some of how I feel about it at #239. Don’t like this vote.
Dirx, who’s been on Meeko all three days, adds a vote, but I don’t view this as particularly interesting in any direction at the point where it happens.
---
Superfast summary, because I only have a few minutes until the deadline:
1. All of this will be read differently depending on how Meeko flips. Stay tuned, and if I die tonight, somebody come back and revisit the analysis with that knowledge in place. 2. Whether Meeko is Town or Scum, the vote that bothers me most is septimus’. I’ll elaborate further eventually, but for now: Vote: septimus 3. Archangel’s vote for Meeko is a terrible vote at a terrible time and there needs to be further evaluation of her, especially if Meeko flips Town. 4. I don’t care for JustBeingGinger’s vote, either.
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Post by storyteller0910 on May 20, 2011 19:45:22 GMT -5
Moley (and by extension everyone) - Actually I placed the vote on you last night, although the way things are going, I don't think you need to worry. Turns out the one person I was fairly sure was scum, just turned townie on us. I don't understand this. How did Bill's claim, which is utterly unfalsifiable and could easily have been generated to explain Bill's behavior rather than vice versa, render you this confident that Bill has "turned townie on us?" I have no particular reason to doubt Bill, mind, but no particular reason to accept his claim with the confidence I'm seeing out of a lot of folks, either. If Bill really is Town, I'm sure he won't object to the following statement: Bill has proven nothing so far. He should be treated as a total unknown and if he behaves in a Scummy fashion, he warrants votes same as anyone.I also agree with Ma'at - who I still view with suspicion in general, btw - about Bill's "I am right and if I'm not I can be killed" post, which seems very strange.
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Post by JustBeingGinger on May 20, 2011 19:57:41 GMT -5
Suddenly, here comes JustBeingGinger, with a vote for Meeko. Text: This makes no sense. There is no reason that Meeko defending himself should warrant a vote. And Meeko explicitly states “I am Town.” The second statement, about the PM, was clearly meant to refer to the voting restriction PM but the whole “betrayal” thing is a reach – Meeko gave all a lie detector should need by saying “I am Town.” To explain my vote prior to Days end. Meeko was defensive in a abrasive tone. There is one thing saying I am town, don't lynch me kind of defense but then to make some remarks that Meeko did I find to be over the top defensive. In my short experience here the most defensive that is abrasive have been the scum. It was my understand that the LD could not take a bunch of sentences put together and "test' those. I thought it could only be 1 sentence (Mafia wiki, I thought I read it there). In that case Meeko would of put each sentence to be the most honest and upfront in each sentence, if that makes sense.
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Post by Meeko on May 20, 2011 20:00:45 GMT -5
I find Meeko not being around at end of day to try to defend himself a little odd. I know we all get busy, but not even a peep? Yes, I find myself working a retail job with a college degree a little odd too. I just got home, and I'm scarffing dinner before bed. I had tommorow off, but apparently now I don't. Home at 9pm, to be back at work at 7am. Fun.
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Post by Sister Coyote on May 20, 2011 20:00:57 GMT -5
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Post by Rysto on May 23, 2011 15:44:00 GMT -5
[/color] (reasoning snipped)[/quote] I don't have anything to say about the reasoning here, so I snipped it for brevity. What I do want to point out is how the vote count stacked up at this stage: Meeko (4,4) BillMc [72] Guiri [108] Archangel [116] JustBeingGinger [215] Lightfoot (2,2) CatInASuit [165] Honest Moley [211] Metallic Squink (1,1) Septimus [112] Archangel (1,1) Metallic Squink [121] Guiri (1,1) Rysto [171] Rysto (1,1) Lightfoot [183] colby11 (1,1): Meeko [13] Twice in this Day, Ma'at voted at a critical juncture in the Meeko bandwagon, and twice she chose to vote for another candidate. Not only that, both of her targets already had a vote. This looks an awful lot like somebody trying desperately to setup an opposing bandwagon to Meeko's. In of itself this doesn't mean much, but it's very interesting when you consider this next sequence. I also find it extremely interesting that she did not choose to follow the #2 candidate at the time, Lightfoot, which is something I will speak more to later on. This is scummy, full stop. She expresses some suspicion of Meeko but isn't willing to back it up with a vote. She's trying to have her cake and eat it too: she doesn't want to help push Meeko over the top with a vote but she wants some townie cred for being suspicious. So, is this when those not voting for Meeko hope he comes out with a claim? Meeko? This is the smoking gun. For somebody who has Meeko as her #2 suspect, she sure seems to be interested in seeing him claim and potentially talk his way off of the gallows. In this post, Ma'at reveals that she clearly has a vested interest in seeing Meeko not be lynched. It's plain as day, and it's worth a vote alone. But when you combine this with her previously stated suspicion of Meeko along with her record on this Day of voting for opposing candidates, it's a slam dunk. I think the problem, Moley, is that there are a lot of “mediocre” scum candidates, but no strong ones. Maybe a person has done one or two scummy things, but have done 5 or 6 townie things to cover up their mistakes. We’ve had 5 days to talk and try to figure something out, and haven’t been very successful. I’ve read many of the other arguments regarding others’ votes, and none of them resonate all that strongly with me. (snip) This first paragraph is basically a long-winded way of saying, "I don't know who to vote for." That's a fairly common scum tell. The problem for scum is that they can have difficulty voting for townie candidates, because they know that the arguments that they are making are false. It's an honest expression of frustration, but a telling one. This is minor compared to the last two posts, but worth mentioning. I(snip) If I thought Lightfoot was scummy, would be more than happy to vote for her, but I'm not comfortable making a last minute (or last hour) vote change for someone that I'm not all that sure about, especially when it seems a little late in the day to try to get people to start switching votes to someone that hasn't garnered much suspicion. Ma'at is now explicit about it: she is unwilling to vote for Lightfoot. If Ma'at flips scum as I expect, Lightfoot comes out of this one looking very bad. Vote Ma'at
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