|
Post by Suburban Plankton on May 31, 2011 11:01:03 GMT -5
Some thoughts:
guiri - He claimed just before MHaye revealed that he was not Town...but after Moley told us that MHaye had PM'ed SisC about him. So regardless of his alignment, he knew he was about to be outed as 'not Town'. A claim of Survivor is pretty much SOP in that situation. A quick look at his voting record (septimus, Pinkies, Meeko, LightFoot) doesn't set off any alarms, so I could go either way at this point.
storyteller - As near as I can tell he has been under no real suspicion all game long, so it seems an odd claim to fake at this point in the game.
BillMc - I don't think he's the Godfather, unless he has some secondary personal win condition that kicks in only if he can get the rest of his team killed. I do; however, think that he might be a Third-party. What the ramifications of that might be, I'm still not sure.
gnarlycharlie - He's not at all concerned that there is a 'mystery vote' on him Today? I find that very peculiar, and it doesn't sit well with me.
Ma'at - Rysto's case against Ma'at is persuasive, but I do see a problem with it. On Day 3 Ma'at votes for Archangel, in an attempt (according to Rysto) to build a 'competing' bandwagon in order to save Meeko. But on Day 4, Ma'at votes for Squink at a point where the vote is tied 4-4 between Squink and Archangel. In that post, Ma'at even mentions "I’m thinking that either Archangel or Squink are scum, or they are both scum, but I don’t think they’re both town". So if Ma'at is Scum, then she passed up an opportunity to possibly lynch Archangel in favor of bussing her Scum-buddy Squink.
And if Archangel is also Scum, then Ma'at traded one Scum-buddy for another on Day 3 (Archangel for Meeko), then did the same on Day 4 (Squink for Archangel), while reaffirming her suspicion of Archangel at the same time. It's possible that she's doing all of this just to put distance between herself and the rest of the Scum, but this seems a very risky move.
Regarding the mass claim: I have no problem with it, but I don't see what it's supposed to accomplish at this point. So far, all it's done is uncover the claimed Day Vig, and I'm not sure that's an advantage to Town at this point. If we expect the Scum to claim Vanilla and the Doc to claim vanilla, that leaves potential Masons if we have them and the JOAT (which I think we have based on some of the odd goings-on). It seems to me that the mass claim is going to leave us pretty much exactly where we were at the start of the Day.
|
|
|
Post by Suburban Plankton on May 31, 2011 11:03:11 GMT -5
by the way, interesting claim. it's the lowest card. i don't think i've seen all the other card numbers and yet we have the Two of Hearts. What is the significance of that? Why should we see all of the other numbers first? We haven't seen the 3 or the 8 yet either. What does that mean to you?
|
|
|
Post by Suburban Plankton on May 31, 2011 11:06:23 GMT -5
Town: Plankton, MHaye Most Probably Town: Story, Moley, Archangel, Ma'at Bill, I don't recall MHaye as being 'confirmed', although the evidence does seem quite strong in favor. Still, I'm interested why you chose to mark him as "Town" rather than "Most Probably Town".
|
|
|
Post by gnarlycharlie on May 31, 2011 11:12:18 GMT -5
by the way, interesting claim. it's the lowest card. i don't think i've seen all the other card numbers and yet we have the Two of Hearts. What is the significance of that? Why should we see all of the other numbers first? We haven't seen the 3 or the 8 yet either. What does that mean to you? only Archangel has yet to claim what number she is. i'm guessing she's 8 and so septimus may not be vanilla.
|
|
|
Post by storyteller0910 on May 31, 2011 11:29:55 GMT -5
i don't think he was ever a Scotsman. i saw it as WIFOM for scum. Wait. Stop. Think that through for a minute. It's the kind of thing you say when confirmation bias has you already certain that Bill is Town and looking for explanations to support your predisposition. But in this particular case, your explanation makes no sense. Think about it. Suppose Bill is actually vanilla, and lied about being a Scotsman. Why? You say, to create "WIFOM for Scum." But that's just meaningless generalizing. Look closer. In fact, if Bill were vanilla, getting Night killed by Scum would have been a very good outcome for him. If the Scum are night-killing hypothetically vanilla Bill, they are not Night killing a Doctor. Or a Vigilante ;D Or a Lie Detector. As Vanilla Town, lying about your role in order to keep Scum from killing you works against the Town in multiple ways: 1. It increases the chance that the Scum will target and kill a power role or confirmable player. 2. It creates risk that you will be caught in the lie, generating (in this hypothetical) unwarranted suspicion. 3. It creates risk that the real Scotsman, if one exists, will counterclaim you and expose him/herself. ---- Contrarywise, if Bill is not Town, the Scotsman claim makes perfect sense. First of all, it might be true, or partially true; a Night-kill-immune Godfather is not unheard of. Even if it's not, though, it provides a handy dandy reason to explain why Bill is not killed in spite of the fact that he keeps identifying Scum, and a way to keep away meddlesome Serial Killers who might screw up the whole plan. ---- Statements like this are driving me right up the crazy wall. Of the players in this game, I think only Suburban Plankton will really understand why. Look, in simple terms, the fact that you think that Bill's success in identifying Scum makes him much more likely to be Town is exactly the reason that you should not think that. Bill is an OUTSTANDING player, but he has a near-100% success rate in this game; hell, he's even been calling me "probable Town" for Days, for really no reason whatsoever, and no one has called him on it (including me... the psychological effect of having someone correctly identify one as Town is powerful even when you're aware of it as a weapon). So we have a player who: 1. Made a complicated initial claim that involved being a third party who switched to vanilla Town; 2. Made a power role claim that was either an anti-Town lie or duplicates a confirmed existing power role; 3. Has been uncanny in his ability to identify non-Scum versus Scum, including a rather strange "lynch me if I'm wrong" statement preceeding the death of Meeko; and 4. (weak) Has a character name that seems a likely choice for a Godfather in this particular game. And then there's this, from Bill: ...he quotes SisterC as saying something involving the phrase "unless there is a Day killer." I kind of blew past this when I read it. Confirmation bias! I knew he was right - that there was a Day killer and that the Day killer was not Scum. But why would Sister Coyote's "unless there is a Day killer" admonishment suggest to a Town Bill that the Day killer was probably not Scum? Presumably, this conversation was in the context of discussing Bill's potential immunity to Night kills, or something like it. Bill probably asked something like, "so I can't be killed except by a lynch," and Sister C probably responded with "unless there is a Day killer." A Town Bill would have no reason to feel that this statement guaranteed the Day killer as Town. A Town Bill would feel at risk from both Scum and Town. A Scum Bill, on the other hand, would NOT feel at risk from a Scum Daykiller, so a Day killer would automatically default to likely Town (as a Day SK would have been killing every Day, I think). ---- Sorry, Bill. I might be wrong here. But the foregoing is too much for me to let it go: Vote: BillMc
|
|
|
Post by gnarlycharlie on May 31, 2011 11:46:39 GMT -5
i don't think he was ever a Scotsman. i saw it as WIFOM for scum. Wait. Stop. Think that through for a minute. It's the kind of thing you say when confirmation bias has you already certain that Bill is Town and looking for explanations to support your predisposition. i agree i have a bias. but short of getting killed, we can't be sure. i just decided to put him on my likely Town list. however i didn't say that i would NEVER consider him as scum. to be sure we can always vig him NOW. would that be acceptable given Town's numerical superiority?
|
|
|
Post by storyteller0910 on May 31, 2011 11:48:28 GMT -5
We could do that. To be more specific, I could do that. But if I'm right about him, then people's responses to my case might help us find the last of the Scum (if, in fact, any remain). And if I'm wrong, same thing. Just unilaterally bombing him means no one else has to weigh in on the issue at all.
|
|
|
Post by gnarlycharlie on May 31, 2011 12:04:54 GMT -5
We could do that. To be more specific, I could do that. But if I'm right about him, then people's responses to my case might help us find the last of the Scum (if, in fact, any remain). And if I'm wrong, same thing. Just unilaterally bombing him means no one else has to weigh in on the issue at all. it's certainly up to you whether we all agree or disagree.
|
|
|
Post by Suburban Plankton on May 31, 2011 12:22:28 GMT -5
Bill told us of his partial Night-kill immunity on Day 4. The Scum had a Strongman; a role that is specifially designed to counter such an ability. So my question is:
Why didn't the Scum use their Strongman last night?
If I understand Bill's description of his 'power' and the function of the Strongman (which, of course, is a variable), then the Scum should have been able to kill Bill by targeting him with both the regular Scum kill and LightFoot's ability. But they didn't do that; instead they targeted me.
Now, I suppose they could have thought Bill was a likely target for a Doc's protection, and if Lightfoot's ability was a one-shot they might have wanted not to waste it. But instead their target turned out to be the Town Scotsman...and the Scum Strongman wound up dead at the end of the Night. Individually, each of those happenings seem plausible enough, but all together it all seems a rather improbable turn of events, doesn't it?
|
|
|
Post by Rysto on May 31, 2011 12:23:02 GMT -5
But on Day 4, Ma'at votes for Squink at a point where the vote is tied 4-4 between Squink and Archangel. In that post, Ma'at even mentions "I’m thinking that either Archangel or Squink are scum, or they are both scum, but I don’t think they’re both town". So if Ma'at is Scum, then she passed up an opportunity to possibly lynch Archangel in favor of bussing her Scum-buddy Squink. If my vote chart is correct, Ma'at's vote came after MHaye's claim.
|
|
|
Post by Suburban Plankton on May 31, 2011 12:33:59 GMT -5
But on Day 4, Ma'at votes for Squink at a point where the vote is tied 4-4 between Squink and Archangel. In that post, Ma'at even mentions "I’m thinking that either Archangel or Squink are scum, or they are both scum, but I don’t think they’re both town". So if Ma'at is Scum, then she passed up an opportunity to possibly lynch Archangel in favor of bussing her Scum-buddy Squink. If my vote chart is correct, Ma'at's vote came after MHaye's claim. Ah, that's correct. I forgot about MHaye's claim. And that, combined with Squink's voting record, suggests to me that Archangel is probably not Scum
|
|
|
Post by Archangel on May 31, 2011 12:36:37 GMT -5
You are the three of Hearts.
You're not really sure what the heck is going on, but you're painting the roses red so your head doesn't get cut off.
You're Vanilla Town, and have no power other than your vote.
You win so long as all threats to Town are eliminated.
|
|
|
Post by Suburban Plankton on May 31, 2011 12:37:05 GMT -5
What is the significance of that? Why should we see all of the other numbers first? We haven't seen the 3 or the 8 yet either. What does that mean to you? only Archangel has yet to claim what number she is. i'm guessing she's 8 and so septimus may not be vanilla. You also haven't claimed yet. One could argue that you're waiting to see what numbers are left before making your claim. Or are you claiming that you're the Three of Hearts?
|
|
|
Post by Archangel on May 31, 2011 12:37:48 GMT -5
And...I'm not sure why that posted without color. It has color in my PM, and all I did was cut and paste it.
|
|
|
Post by Archangel on May 31, 2011 12:38:58 GMT -5
only Archangel has yet to claim what number she is. i'm guessing she's 8 and so septimus may not be vanilla. You also haven't claimed yet. One could argue that you're waiting to see what numbers are left before making your claim. Or are you claiming that you're the Three of Hearts? That's what I was wondering myself when I read that. Since I'm the Three of Hearts.
|
|
|
Post by Archangel on May 31, 2011 12:40:17 GMT -5
Sorry, my memory is failing me here ATM...do we have a good reason (such as an MHaye read) to believe right now that Storyteller is not scum?
|
|
|
Post by Suburban Plankton on May 31, 2011 12:58:04 GMT -5
Sorry, my memory is failing me here ATM...do we have a good reason (such as an MHaye read) to believe right now that Storyteller is not scum? Not that I know of. all the same, I don't see a good reason to believe he is Scum, either.
|
|
|
Post by Ma'at on May 31, 2011 12:58:29 GMT -5
Sigh...I am so confused. I hope I am not being anti-town by pointing out that Archangel’s PM does not appear to be legit, but as someone said in D4, if I’ve noticed it, scum likely may have noticed it as well. She says she copied and pasted, but I don’t think so. So, Archangel, if you are town, be on alert. If you’re scum, hopefully we lynch you…
|
|
|
Post by storyteller0910 on May 31, 2011 12:59:05 GMT -5
And...I'm not sure why that posted without color. It has color in my PM, and all I did was cut and paste it. If you want to preserve the color, you have to hit "quote" and copy and paste from the original PM in order to keep the color tags that the moderator wrote in. If you just C&P, without color tags, you'll get bleached. No, you don't. I'm entirely sure you also don't have reason to believe that I am, but that's another conversation.
|
|
|
Post by storyteller0910 on May 31, 2011 13:00:21 GMT -5
Sigh...I am so confused. I hope I am not being anti-town by pointing out that Archangel’s PM does not appear to be legit, but as someone said in D4, if I’ve noticed it, scum likely may have noticed it as well. She says she copied and pasted, but I don’t think so. So, Archangel, if you are town, be on alert. If you’re scum, hopefully we lynch you… In what way does her PM not appear to be legit? The color bleaching? C&P your own directly from the received message and see what happens. Or is there something else?
|
|
|
Post by Ma'at on May 31, 2011 13:04:38 GMT -5
Soemthing else. Let me check one more thing from a previous day, and then I will point it out.
|
|
|
Post by Suburban Plankton on May 31, 2011 13:05:33 GMT -5
Sigh...I am so confused. I hope I am not being anti-town by pointing out that Archangel’s PM does not appear to be legit, but as someone said in D4, if I’ve noticed it, scum likely may have noticed it as well. She says she copied and pasted, but I don’t think so. So, Archangel, if you are town, be on alert. If you’re scum, hopefully we lynch you… In what way does her PM not appear to be legit? The color bleaching? C&P your own directly from the received message and see what happens. Or is there something else? For me, it's the fact that you claim to be the "three of Hearts", with a lower-case "three". Everyone else who claimed a suit card did so with a Capital.
|
|
|
Post by Ma'at on May 31, 2011 13:08:13 GMT -5
While it may seem small, I do think it’s significant. In everyone else’s role, the number is capitalized (Seven of Hearts, Ten of Hearts, etc), but Archangel says she is “the three of Hearts”. And this after Gnarley implied he was the three (by saying he thought Archangel would be the eight). So…..?
|
|
|
Post by storyteller0910 on May 31, 2011 13:10:09 GMT -5
While it may seem small, I do think it’s significant. In everyone else’s role, the number is capitalized (Seven of Hearts, Ten of Hearts, etc), but Archangel says she is “the three of Hearts”. And this after Gnarley implied he was the three (by saying he thought Archangel would be the eight). So…..? So... let's see if gnarly is actually going to counterclaim Archangel as the Three of Hearts. That would be interesting. Unfortunately, I have a sneaking suspicion it is not going to reveal Scum, who probably received at least an indicator of what cards would make safe claims.
|
|
|
Post by Suburban Plankton on May 31, 2011 13:10:45 GMT -5
Which suggests that Archangel is either Scum or a Power Townie.
I didn't point out the inconsistency when I first spotted it because I was not willing at this point to possibly out our Doc, say. Now it's true that if one person notices something, then others probably do as well, and by extension if Town notices something then Scum probably do as well. So, I don't know if Ma'at should be 'in trouble' for bringing up this point or not.
And I'd really like to see a claim by gnarlycharlie at this point, though I can guess at what it might be...
|
|
|
Post by Suburban Plankton on May 31, 2011 13:15:35 GMT -5
Unfortunately, I have a sneaking suspicion it is not going to reveal Scum, who probably received at least an indicator of what cards would make safe claims. Why would you think that specifically? If you had said "I think the Scum were provided safe cover roles" I might agree with you, but how would the Mod go about giving them "an indicator of what cards would make safe claims"?
|
|
|
Post by storyteller0910 on May 31, 2011 13:24:00 GMT -5
Unfortunately, I have a sneaking suspicion it is not going to reveal Scum, who probably received at least an indicator of what cards would make safe claims. Why would you think that specifically? If you had said "I think the Scum were provided safe cover roles" I might agree with you, but how would the Mod go about giving them "an indicator of what cards would make safe claims"? ...how are these two things different? -- To answer your question very specifically, in one of my Marvel games I didn't want to provide too many pre-written "safe" PMs, so I gave the Scum two, but also gave them (with color included) a list of Marvel Universe characters who they had "captured" pre-game (ie, characters who definitely would not appear in the game).
|
|
|
Post by Ma'at on May 31, 2011 13:24:25 GMT -5
If scum get a listing of potential safe numbers to fake claim, what was the point of a mass claim today? Or a mass claim at any point in any game? I assumed you’re hoping someone claims a role you already have so you can pounce on them. But if scum receive hints on numbers, I don’t see the point? What am I missing? The hope that scum don't receive hints?
|
|
|
Post by Suburban Plankton on May 31, 2011 13:32:30 GMT -5
Why would you think that specifically? If you had said "I think the Scum were provided safe cover roles" I might agree with you, but how would the Mod go about giving them "an indicator of what cards would make safe claims"? ...how are these two things different? -- To answer your question very specifically, in one of my Marvel games I didn't want to provide too many pre-written "safe" PMs, so I gave the Scum two, but also gave them (with color included) a list of Marvel Universe characters who they had "captured" pre-game (ie, characters who definitely would not appear in the game). I just thought your phrasing was rather odd, that's all.
|
|
|
Post by Suburban Plankton on May 31, 2011 13:34:22 GMT -5
Here are the remaining players along with their claimed roles as things stand Today: Honest Moley - Eavesdropper storyteller - Day Vig MHaye - Lie Detector guiri - Survivor CatInaSuit - Vanilla Rysto - Vanilla JustBeingGinger - Vanilla Suburban Plankton - Vanilla Ma'at - Vanilla septimus - Vanilla Archangel - Vanilla? BillMc - Vanilla, immune to Night Kills? gnarlycharlie - We have 3 dead Scum in a 22-man game, so there's probably 1 more Scum remaining, and possibly a PFK. I think today's lynch should come from the following pool. CatInaSuit - because I think he's the most Scummy BillMc - because I think he might be a PFK gnarlycharlie - because his delay in claiming smells bad guiri - because Survivor is a 'safe' claim for someone who has been outed as 'not town' Of course, I haven't cast a single vote on a known Scum yet this game, so I'm not sure how much wieght you should give to my suspicions. The only thing I can guarantee is that I have the best interests of the town in mind. I'm not voting at the moment because I'd like to hear from a few more people before doing so.
|
|