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Post by gnarlycharlie on Jun 14, 2011 20:38:15 GMT -5
A couple of other points: GnarlyCharlie, not that it makes any difference now, but I didn't make a "case" on you so much as list some things that bothered me and looked suspicious. (Subtle distinction, I know.) I did the same with Lightfoot later on and didn't vote her either. The plain truth is that I wasn't sure of either of you at that point. I was, however, sure of Metallic Squink (and for reasons that had nothing whatsoever to do with BillMC by the way, so please stop saying that I "followed" him just because I happened to mention in my post that he'd been right once before. It was flippin' obvious what Squink was from the moment Meeko flipped scum!) and both of you seemed to fit rather well as a possible partner to that particular suspect. i HAVE stopped saying it. i was asked to recall my thoughts at the time. I must say I hadn't considered the possibility that gnarlycharlie would have a day action with a Night result. Now that I have considered it, I still don't think it's likely. i was not aware some mods allowed players to submit Night actions during the Day. i have been sending my Night actions at Night. Here's another possibility though. GnarlyCharlie, would you be able to kill Archangel tonight? I hope to God the scum can't roleblock Mhaye or yourself, but that brings us down from eight suspects to five, it solves the Archangel problem, and means that we gain an extra mislynch to boot. i won't be able to kill Archangel.
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Post by Holy Moley! on Jun 14, 2011 23:40:52 GMT -5
A couple of other points: GnarlyCharlie, not that it makes any difference now, but I didn't make a "case" on you so much as list some things that bothered me and looked suspicious. (Subtle distinction, I know.) I did the same with Lightfoot later on and didn't vote her either. The plain truth is that I wasn't sure of either of you at that point. I was, however, sure of Metallic Squink (and for reasons that had nothing whatsoever to do with BillMC by the way, so please stop saying that I "followed" him just because I happened to mention in my post that he'd been right once before. It was flippin' obvious what Squink was from the moment Meeko flipped scum!) and both of you seemed to fit rather well as a possible partner to that particular suspect. i HAVE stopped saying it. i was asked to recall my thoughts at the time. i was not aware some mods allowed players to submit Night actions during the Day. i have been sending my Night actions at Night. Here's another possibility though. GnarlyCharlie, would you be able to kill Archangel tonight? I hope to God the scum can't roleblock Mhaye or yourself, but that brings us down from eight suspects to five, it solves the Archangel problem, and means that we gain an extra mislynch to boot. i won't be able to kill Archangel. Ok. Can you kill ANYBODY? For example, if I wanted Storyteller or Guiri dead (purely for altruistic motives, of course) - could you oblige me? I could provide you with a gun and an alibi, if that's how such things are arranged...
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Post by gnarlycharlie on Jun 15, 2011 4:02:36 GMT -5
Ok. Can you kill ANYBODY? For example, if I wanted Storyteller or Guiri dead (purely for altruistic motives, of course) - could you oblige me? I could provide you with a gun and an alibi, if that's how such things are arranged... sorry, no. i'm out of kills.
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Post by storyteller0910 on Jun 15, 2011 8:51:41 GMT -5
I have zero time this week. I don't agree with killing Archangel unless we are collectively confident she is Scum. Think about it. The argument is, if she's alive at final four, then one remaining Scum could clinch the game by voting first, forcing a mislynch. There's a good chance that the Scum will succeed, but not 100% - if someone else acts more quickly, then it will fail to force the expected mislynch.
If we lynch Archangel NOW (and if she is not Scum), then ALL we are doing is moving that mislynch from endgame to toDay, and guaranteeing it. If Archangel is a mislynch, then killing her now affords us NO advantage.
The only way really to deal with Archangel's situation would be for every living player to intentionally incur two final penalty votes (with non-compliers lynched on principle). This would be an unfortunately meta-game solution and seems somewhat distasteful, so there it is.
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Post by Sister Coyote on Jun 15, 2011 10:20:53 GMT -5
Current Vote Count:
Archangel (5,2)*: gnarlycharlie [4], Suburban Plankton [26,30], Archangel [36], Merestil Haye [52] guiri (3,4): Honest Moley [9], storyteller [11], Ma'at [18], Archangel [33,36]
With these votes, archangel will be lynched.
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Post by Holy Moley! on Jun 15, 2011 14:42:03 GMT -5
@ Moley - 1. No, other than analysis of my role, you have no particular reason to dismiss the possibility that I am Scum. I'm not - God, if I was Scum I'd at least have been right about something, sometime, in this game - but you can't prove it. But I don't see anything particularly wrong with role-based analysis, especially this late in the game. For example: 2. I think you're definitely wrong about there being no PFK. I think there is one, and I think it's gnarlycharly. There are two reasons. One is your role. To be frank, I had some suspicion of your role since you claimed it, simply because it appears to be freaking useless. In nearly every game I've played that I can recall, the Scum have placed kill orders on their own board. In many cases, Scum can also place orders for non-kill orders in the same way. Your power made no sense. And yet, there you are, and unless MHaye is lying (I don't think he is), you must be explained. The only way your role makes sense is if its intent is to catch malicious PFK (because who cares about catching non-malicious PFK?) - and we have not seen one of them yet. As you note, guiri does not appear to have done much per your power. But we do know that gnarlycharly has killed twice, and appears to have other powers (including one he describes as "Informational;" I don't remember this from before, but this has been a long game!). And honestly, I haven't had a chance to sit down and really assess the balance of this game yet (I will before this Day is out). But we are currently sort-of assuming that there were five Scum to start, including a Godfather, a Politician, a Strongman with unspecified powers, and a Watcher. Almost definitely no Role-Blocker. Look at the horde of pro-Town roles we've seen so far, and then decide if the array of powers charly has claimed makes sense as another Town role. Story: I absolutely agree with your assessment of the Archangel lynch. Archangel is very, very low down on my list of suspects right now - barring the as-confirmed-as-they-can-possibly-be MHaye, Plankton and Ma'at, she's probably at the least likely scum out of everybody surviving, for various reasons including her early claim, her interactions with the known scum, the fact that she took the two-vote penalty in the first place - and I don't see the sense in panicking and lynching a likely-but-unconfirmed townie today in order to get rid of a possible problem at f4 (which won't even occur if we do our jobs right this time out). I don't like the fact that Sis C has now confirmed that early role-action submissions are possible. And quite honestly, I don't like the fact either that GnarlyCharlie has not only confirmed that he's got no kills left, he's also done some things - like the vote for me on Day 3 - which seem pretty inconsistent with his claims. I just don't get why you'd vote for me, whatever my reasoning, if I'd just called out Metallic Squink and you were aware she wasn't town. I don't know either why he didn't act on the first two nights, or why he was unable to act last night. Gnarly, does that mean that you have no more powers? Y'know, I'm going to join Storyteller here in asking GnarlyCharlie for a full roleclaim. Aside from the vote on me, there's too much that I'd like explained. Right now it's a simple numbers game; we need confirmed town more than we need useful roles.
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Post by guiri on Jun 15, 2011 14:51:04 GMT -5
I'm traveling tomorrow and Friday, I should be able to check in before Dusk. I haven't voted Archangel because I believe her to be Town and, if MHaye doesn't both investigate me and survive the Night, I'd simply be delaying my own lynch and thus destroying any chance I have of sharing a win with Town. The only other viable suspect is Gnarly. Between his interest in PFKs, his initial delay in claiming, the color coding fail in his claimed PM, the partial claim, the drawn out reveal of his second claimed power, his interactions with Metallic after he claims to have learned she was scum, his choice? to kill Lightfoot, without having mentioned her at any time beforehand - not even a comment on my case against her, his choice? to kill CIAS rather than investigate him, the fact that he could have intentionally avoided the lie detector and his early vote on Archangel toDay lead me to believe he is the remaining threat to Town and should be lynched. Vote GnarlyI have zero time this week. I don't agree with killing Archangel unless we are collectively confident she is Scum. Think about it. The argument is, if she's alive at final four, then one remaining Scum could clinch the game by voting first, forcing a mislynch. A remaining scum would need to control the vote, even if they won the race at final 4, they'd be fully exposed and would need to win the race again the following Dawn. I've no idea what kind of a wincon a PFK may have but it could be to reach the final 4 or something similar.
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Post by guiri on Jun 15, 2011 15:25:04 GMT -5
The only way really to deal with Archangel's situation would be for every living player to intentionally incur two final penalty votes (with non-compliers lynched on principle). This would be an unfortunately meta-game solution and seems somewhat distasteful, so there it is. I think only Colby has received a penalty so the next penalty is 2 2-Day penalty votes, final votes are the punishment for subsequent rule breaking. Someone, possibly Suburban, should go first - editing a post - and then each of us should make two posts and edit each of them. Moley, want to comment?
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Post by Archangel on Jun 15, 2011 18:53:12 GMT -5
Unvote Archangel
Vote GnarlyCharlie
I see the point that if we catch scum today I don't have to die. And I just now saw Charlie's reason for voting me.
The uncapitalized "t" in my posted PM. Sorry, Charlie, I <2 you but that is complete BS.
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Post by Holy Moley! on Jun 15, 2011 19:11:25 GMT -5
The only way really to deal with Archangel's situation would be for every living player to intentionally incur two final penalty votes (with non-compliers lynched on principle). This would be an unfortunately meta-game solution and seems somewhat distasteful, so there it is. I think only Colby has received a penalty so the next penalty is 2 2-Day penalty votes, final votes are the punishment for subsequent rule breaking. Someone, possibly Suburban, should go first - editing a post - and then each of us should make two posts and edit each of them. Moley, want to comment? Hehe, I'd be interested to see who refused. ;D This is TOTALLY against the spirit of the game. But then so is the entire concept of a lie detector, a role that allows a player to read others' PMs, a role that allows a player to edit others' votes, etc, etc... so if everyone is for it then I can get behind it. Still want to hear from GnarlyCharlie though. Unvote: Guiri for the moment.
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Post by gnarlycharlie on Jun 15, 2011 20:45:03 GMT -5
i will address you all at the same time. like i said, Town has a great majority. how hard is it to wait one freaking Day? have i have been asking nicely. despite being majorly pissed off right now and very much tempted to just shut up and not help Town, i'll just refuse once again. maybe, i will claim when i have one vote short of a hammer or maybe i might just let you lynch me because between a freaking lie detector, eavesdropper and so many Town, everyone is freaked out about someone who actually took out scum. damn it, Bill, where are you?
by the way, whatever happened to the lynch nilla first or guiri? what happened to taking the hit for Town if you're nilla? i call double BS.
Unvote Archangel
whatever.
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Post by Sister Coyote on Jun 16, 2011 10:31:20 GMT -5
Current Vote Count:
Archangel (3,2)*: gnarlycharlie [4,70], Suburban Plankton [26,30], Archangel [36,68], Merestil Haye [52] guiri (2,4): Honest Moley [9,69], storyteller [11], Ma'at [18], Archangel [33,36] gnarlycharlie (2,2): guiri [66], Archangel [68]
With these votes, archangel will be lynched.
ToDay will end in approximately one day, nine and one-half hours barring hammer
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Post by storyteller0910 on Jun 16, 2011 11:11:40 GMT -5
i will address you all at the same time. like i said, Town has a great majority. how hard is it to wait one freaking Day? have i have been asking nicely. despite being majorly pissed off right now and very much tempted to just shut up and not help Town, i'll just refuse once again. maybe, i will claim when i have one vote short of a hammer or maybe i might just let you lynch me because between a freaking lie detector, eavesdropper and so many Town, everyone is freaked out about someone who actually took out scum. damn it, Bill, where are you? by the way, whatever happened to the lynch nilla first or guiri? what happened to taking the hit for Town if you're nilla? i call double BS. whatever. Calm down. If you're actually Town (I still find this difficult to believe, but I've been wrong about everything so far so why not now, too?), then you have to recognize that with no player other than Plankton definitively confirmed, every player warrants scrutiny and every avenue of investigation warrants consideration. Honestly, your refusal to claim is making less and less sense to me. The Scum clearly have no role-blocker or redirector, or they'd have used the power by now on someone, I should think. Remember, keeping a secret for its own sake is not valuable, especially if the secret is something that could confirm you or bolster your claim in some way. The "how hard is it to wait one Day" thing you keep pushing sounds like a third party player who is very close to winning and thinks he can pull it off given another day. This makes me nervous.
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Post by gnarlycharlie on Jun 16, 2011 12:38:38 GMT -5
i will address you all at the same time. like i said, Town has a great majority. how hard is it to wait one freaking Day? have i have been asking nicely. despite being majorly pissed off right now and very much tempted to just shut up and not help Town, i'll just refuse once again. maybe, i will claim when i have one vote short of a hammer or maybe i might just let you lynch me because between a freaking lie detector, eavesdropper and so many Town, everyone is freaked out about someone who actually took out scum. damn it, Bill, where are you? by the way, whatever happened to the lynch nilla first or guiri? what happened to taking the hit for Town if you're nilla? i call double BS. whatever. Calm down. If you're actually Town (I still find this difficult to believe, but I've been wrong about everything so far so why not now, too?), then you have to recognize that with no player other than Plankton definitively confirmed, every player warrants scrutiny and every avenue of investigation warrants consideration. Honestly, your refusal to claim is making less and less sense to me. The Scum clearly have no role-blocker or redirector, or they'd have used the power by now on someone, I should think. Remember, keeping a secret for its own sake is not valuable, especially if the secret is something that could confirm you or bolster your claim in some way. The "how hard is it to wait one Day" thing you keep pushing sounds like a third party player who is very close to winning and thinks he can pull it off given another day. This makes me nervous. okay. i'm calmer now. it just wasn't the best thing to wake up to. if someone would would explain clearly what happened to the lynch nilla or guiri plan? we agreed it was best. as to the chance i'm PFK why would i ask for one more Day? wouldn't that be too obvious. look, if i make a full claim and i'm PFK, wouldn't i manipulate it anyway? MHaye would have to make a reading and i would still get my one Day. so, please answer my questions. if the reasoning is good enough that we deviate from the plan, i will make a full claim. then i will leave it up to everyone to make a judgment whether it is believable or not.
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Merestil Haye
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Post by Merestil Haye on Jun 16, 2011 15:49:52 GMT -5
I'm going to ramble for a bit. Currently we have eight players remaining. Clearly at least one of those players is what Sister Coyote would categorise as a threat to town, or the game would be over. The two questions that naturally arise are (i) just how many are there, and (ii) who are they? My early conjecture on the game start, with no evidence to back it, was that there would be a five-player Mafia, one PFK and one or two Third Party players (using Sister C's definitions.) The events of the game don't leave any room for a serial killer type – there have not been enough deaths. Of the other regular PFK types, I suspected a Mad Bomber, the role title given to Fluiddruid notwithstanding. This is still possible, Of the eight players, we have Mod testimony that Suburban Plankton is Town. That leaves Archangel, gnarlycharlie, guiri, Honest Moley, Ma'at, Storyteller and myself. Trying to look objectively at the evidence about myself for a minute; I think that most people should be willing to accept that I am a Lie Detector, or at least have some sort of investigative power. Three of my six investigations have either been verified by Sister Coyote (Metallic Squink, Suburban Plankton) or by confession of the player (Guiri). My result on Bill, I submit, is also consistent with Sister Coyote's death reveal on Bill. As for my alignment; there is no direct evidence either way, but I think that's true of all of us except Suburban.. My remaining investigations (Ma'at and Honest Moley) suggest that these two are not threats to Town. That leaves Archangel, Gnarlycharlie, Guiri and Storyteller, so those are the people I will be waffling about most. Before I do that though, let's go back to the game setup. I said earlier that at the start, I suspected a five-man Mafia and a PFK. The evolution of the game made me dismiss the idea of a serial killer, so the most probable PFK is the Mad Bomber. Is there any evidence of a Mad Bomber's existence? Well yes. Honest Moley's claims. The evidence from HM's claims is that he can intercept a snippet from Night Pms between a player and a Mod. At the same time, he has failed to detect any communication between know Mafia power roles and Sister C. This means the two things his power can detect are the PMs sent by a Town power role such as myself, and PMs sent by PFKs. If that is true, is the role worth anything if all it can do is intercept Town power communications? I believe it is still possible that one of the four is in fact a PFK. Before we all rush off to lynch the known not-Town in a knee-jerk reaction, can we at least consider the evidence? Archangel. Right now, after rereading the Day, Archangel has dropped to the bottom of my suspicion list. It's commonly held around here that “yes, Mafia would do that,” but that's a load of bat puckey. There are things a Mafiate will not do, especially if they are the last Mafiate. Every action a Mafia-aligned player takes is aimed at winning the game. A Mafiate will not deliberately throw the game, especially not if they are the last one and their dead comrades are relying on them to pull the iron out of the fire. Archangel, in post D06.036, voted for herself to remove the problem caused for Town by her penalty votes. Unless she's pulling a huge double-bluff by playing for sympathy, that vote could easily have led to a significant number of votes against her. I don't think a Mafiate, or PFK, would do that in that situation. That doesn't mean we should not lynch her. Eliminating the player with two penalty votes will avoid problems at Endgame, because most assuredly a remaining Mafiate won't eliminate the problem for us, and any PFK probably can't. However, if we can identify a threat to Town, we should lynch them instead. Gnarlycharlie He claims JOAT. However, his role is, by his own admission, not a regular JOAT role. He's claimed to kill twice. Each role he's admitted to using has come with a deleterous side effect in the vote count. He's reluctant to make a full role claim, and I think that's a mistake. If he's Town, the information will enable us to plan ahead, including mitigating the consequences of any side-effects of the action. It also enables him to avoid accountability for his Night 7 action. Guiri. We know Guiri is not Town. He claims Third Party Survivor, but we've already seen two Third Party players. That makes me uneasy. It's worth remembering that Third Party players count as part of what the Mafia must overthrow to meet their wincon. This is partially balanced by the possibility the Third Party may defect and throw their support behind the Mafia if they think the Mafia offer a shorter route to victory. Storyteller. My opinion on Stooryteller is part role analysis and part metagamey. The metagame part is that, compared to how he played in Scooby Doo Mafia (where he was a Mafia-aligned Watcher) , Storyteller has been more vigorous in prosecuting the Hunt for Mafia. That doesn't mean much, and would not be enough on its own. However, I think a Mafia team with two one-shot bonus kills (Storyteller and Lightfoot) would be overpowered. The two together are enough to incline me away from suspecting Storyteller. Overall then, my top suspects are Gnarly and Guiri. The trouble is, there's nothing definitive. Gnarlycharlie, if you're not willing to claim fully, will you answer a few questions? Do you have a protective power available? If yes, does your power also block any power use by your subject that Night? If no, does it have any side-effect on the subject's capability of voting the next Day? Or any other side-effect that you are aware of? If you are Town, and have a protective power, using it on me will ensure I live to post the results of a Night 7 investigation. The killer will have to go through you to get to me. Think about it. Finally, will Archangel, Gnarlycharlie, Guiri and Storyteller please make a post containing the sentence “I am Town or Third Party.” Thank you.
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Post by Archangel on Jun 16, 2011 16:48:17 GMT -5
I am Town or Third Party.
MHaye and Moley, do you think it's possible we still have one scum and one PFK?
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Post by Suburban Plankton on Jun 16, 2011 17:50:45 GMT -5
Very busy day at work today, but I do have one question:
MHaye, what possible good is it to have people who have already claimed to be Town tell us "I am Town or Third Party"? I understand that you're working under the assumption that "Third Party" and "PFK" are two distinctly different things...but what if that assumption is wrong?
Take Archangel, for example (only because she is the one person to have answered your most recent request). She has previously claimed to be Town. So if hhe's going to make a statement to be evaluated tonight, that statement should be "I am Town". Nothing more and nothing less. If that statement turns out to be True, then she's in the clear with no room for interpretation, and if it turns out to be False, then she's got a lot of 'splainin' to do. The same goes for everyone else except for guiri, who should state "I am not a possible threat to Town", since he has already admitted to being non-Town.
"I am town or Third Party" always leaves open the possibility that for the purposes of determining alignment, there are exactly three possible values: Town, Scum, and Third Party (which includes both malevolent and non-malevolent roles). Why are we allowing for the possibility that someone could slip past on a technicality when there is absolutely no reason to do so?
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Post by Archangel on Jun 16, 2011 17:55:08 GMT -5
I happen to agree with Suburban Plankton on that one.
I am Town.
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Post by Merestil Haye on Jun 16, 2011 17:58:10 GMT -5
MHaye, what possible good is it to have people who have already claimed to be Town tell us "I am Town or Third Party"? I understand that you're working under the assumption that "Third Party" and "PFK" are two distinctly different things...but what if that assumption is wrong? Because the claim "I am Town" isn't good enough. Guiri has already been tested on that statement, and it did not clear him. "I am Town or Third Party" means, if true, that the player is not a threat to Town, and therefore we don't need to eliminate them for Town to win. Conversely, if it's false, they need to go. Finally, taking two questions to eliminate a player is one question too long. Third Party players are not a threat to town. This is not a matter of interpretation, because Sister Coyote has explicitly declared that is the case in this game.
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Post by Suburban Plankton on Jun 16, 2011 17:59:41 GMT -5
I also think that it's time for gnarlycharlie to make a full claim. Some questions I'd like answered:
You can't kill tonight, yet you had more than one kill. Why? You had one investigation; do you have another one? What information do you get from your investigation(s)? Alignment? Role? Name? What did you do on Nights 1 and 2, and if you did nothing, why not? Do you in fact have any abilities left that might help Town Tonight?
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Post by Suburban Plankton on Jun 16, 2011 18:09:27 GMT -5
Third Party players are not a threat to town. This is not a matter of interpretation, because Sister Coyote has explicitly declared that is the case in this game. Actually, what she explicitlt declared was this: Sister, if you used them in the game, would Third Party roles be non-exclusive and PFK roles be win-stealing? That is the standard terminology for any game I moderate.That's not quite the same thing as what you're saying. What you're saying is that there are four classes of player: Town Scum Third Party PFK Don't you see that doesn't really make sense? "Third Party" doesn't make sense if there are actually Four Parties; it only makes sense if there are only Three. And that's traditionally how things are played out in my experience; you have Town, Scum, and potentially "Third Party" players, who may or may not be win-stealers, who may or may not be 'threats to Town'. Now personally, I think we're still looking for another Scum, so this point is probably moot. But with the exception of guiri, everyone else in the game has previously claimed to be Town, whether they were tested on it or not. I think the best thing to do, if we're going to test anyone at this point, is to have them again claim to be "Town", with no ambiguity whatsoever. If that claim fails, then they've been lying to us for several Days and I would be 100% comfortable with a lynch, without any need for a second test.
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Post by Merestil Haye on Jun 16, 2011 18:23:07 GMT -5
SP, I know you are Town, and therefore are saying what you believe to be in the best interests of Town.
I believe you are wrong.
Over on the Dope, Pleo remarked that he preferred to use slightly different terms. It set me thinking, and I would use different terms again in my games. But we are playing a Sister Coyote game, and it is the way she uses the terms that counts.
The post you quoted is quite explicit; Sister Coyote differentiates between the two unaligned groups by labelling the group that can steal wins PFK and those that cannot Third Party. It's probably an artefact of the evolution of the game terminology here. Players who were not aligned with either Town or Mafia were called Third Party very quickly. The term PFK was invented by Roosh and Diomedes for the Arkham Asylum game, and caught on here to mean "unaligned win stealers."
Ultimately, it is Sister Coyote who provides the answers to my investigations, and we have to go by her interpretation of the terms.
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Post by Holy Moley! on Jun 16, 2011 19:06:52 GMT -5
I am Town or Third Party. MHaye and Moley, do you think it's possible we still have one scum and one PFK? In answer to your question, I think it possible, but extremely improbable, to the point where I think it pretty much redundant to plan for that eventuality. I think we either have a limited-power serial killer (in which case it has to be Charley) or a scum left. I can't see how we can possibly have any other type of PFK (I know the roles in this game are gastardly to say the least, but I can't believe Sis C would include a "stealth mad-bomber" type role that leaves absolutely no trace of itself on the living). Another thing I think is completely redundant is MHaye's argument. MHaye, you have one confirmed non-town and seven claimed townies. You could have proven beyond any doubt that I was town - as I've claimed since day one - and can prove that with any other player in the game. If they're not town, they're lying. It's that simple. I really, really hate the Gnarley situation right now. I just don't see what part of his role could possibly be important enough that it merits concealment now. He's already confirmed that it's not a killing role, which doesn't seem to leave a whole lot of options. - If it's a protective role, claim it and use it on MHaye. If you die, it makes things a lot simpler for the rest of the town. - If it's an investigative role, great, we have three investigators left instead of two (albeit one - myself - who is functionally useless). (I have issues with this, by the way, one major one being that there are now THREE claimed town investigative roles, aside from Gnarley; Spec. Ed is confirmed, I know I'm telling the truth, and I think MHaye is. Anybody else think four investigators is overkill? Come to think of it, anybody else think three town-sided killers is?) - If it's anything else, I STILL cannot see how it can be important enough to withhold it at this stage. I have never agreed with any of the arguments brought by others against Archangel. The only thing I ever thought "off" about her was her "buddying" with Storyteller and myself. The "contradictions" pointed out seemed to be a case of her being unsure of her ground and thinking out loud, just as she claimed. This seems like a moot point now but I don't want there to be any ambiguity about where I stand here. If Gnarly isn't a PFK, I want to see what happens tonight, and I still think four scum out of twenty-two players is very low indeed, especially given their powers - Godfather is practially vanilla scum in this setup. The one thing that seems certain is that Gnarly isn't scum. So I'm going to revote: Guiri. Final point, and I should have thought of this sooner. If we assume that Meeko watched FluidDruid on Night Two, and that's how the scum got onto Dirx, then it's absolute proof that the scum can daytalk. Meeko would have got a result at the end of Night Two and was dead by the end of Day Three. If the scum can't talk, Meeko couldn't have let them know what was happening.
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Post by Suburban Plankton on Jun 16, 2011 20:07:30 GMT -5
My thoughts on all the remaining players:
MHaye - claimed Town Lie Detector
Outed Squink as a liar on Day 4. Outed guiri as 'non-Town' on Day 5. Correctly 'investigated' me (though admittedly his investigation did not prove me Town). Correctly identified Bill as Town (because he was effectively Town at that point, by virtue of his ability). According to Honest Moley, he is "Town or Third Party". It's possible he is a 3rd-Party Lie Detector, but even if he is, I see nothing in his play to suggest he could be a 'threat to Town'.
Honest Moley - claimed Town Eavesdropper
According to MHaye, he is "Town or Third Party". He hasn't really given us much information, except to confirm MHaye as 'not Scum', and to tell us that gnarlycharlie was silent last Night. Again, he could be 3rd-Party, but I can't see anything malicious in his play so far.
Ma'at - claimed Vanilla Town
Cleared by MHaye as "Town or Third Party". Other than that, I don't really have much of a read on her at all.
storyteller - claimed One-time Day Vig (now effectively Vanilla)
He was obviously telling the truth about having a Day kill; however, that doesn't mean he's Town. I didn't have a problem with his target (Bill), but the fact remains that he killed someone who appears to have been no threat to Town. I doubt very much that he is Scum, but he could possibly be 3rd-Party.
Archangel - claimed Vanilla Town
I have no problem believing that the Scum would have 'bought' one of their own votes on Day 4, and I have no problem believing that a Scummy Archangel, knowing that his vote had been bought, would have had a brain fart and accidentally posted wrongly, resulting in the two permanent penalty votes. But I do have a problem believing that a Scummy Archangel would have voted for herself Today. Sure, it could be a last-ditch ploy to gain sympathy, but I just don't think so.
gnarlycharlie - claimed Town Jack of all Trades
gnarlycharlie is not Scum. There were 2 kill attempts on Night 4, one of which charlie has claimed responsibility for. Since nobody has counter claimed, and nobody who has since died appears capable of having been responsible, I believe him. And unless the Scum decided to kill off one of their own that Night, he can't be Scum. He could; however, be 3rd-Party. But if Moley is to be believed, he was not responsible for last Night's death, unless you believe he sent the kill order in Yesterday, and received a reply Yesterday, with no subsequent communication from The Mod last Night. While possible, I find that unlikely.
guiri - claimed Third Party Survivor
All we 'know' about guiri is that MHaye confirmed him as "not Town". Still the most likely place for a final Scum to be hiding.
As I think the most likely explanation for the kills we have seen is that there is still one more Scum in the game, I'm going to
Vote: guiri
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Post by Suburban Plankton on Jun 16, 2011 20:17:10 GMT -5
Sister Coyote, a question about the tie-breaker rules:
Currently the voting stands at guiri-4, Archangel-3 by my count, with everyone currently having a vote on the table except for gnarlycharlie. If charlie were to place a vote on Arhcangel, ths tying the vote, who would be the lynch leader?
The rules say "If both players received the same number of maximum votes, the person who received the first vote during the day will be the lynch candidate."
Archangel received the first vote of the Day (gnarlycharlie in Post 4). But guiri received the first vote of the Day that is still in force (storyteller in Post 11). Which counts as the 'first vote' for purposes of the tiebreaker?
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Post by Sister Coyote on Jun 16, 2011 23:57:56 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure I said this somewhere else, but a first vote is a first vote even if it has been subsequently removed. I haven't done an updated vote count, but under the situation described, a tie would lynch Archangel.
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Post by guiri on Jun 17, 2011 2:29:51 GMT -5
I am Town or Third Party.
I am Third Party.
I am not a threat to Town.
I'm Bill the Lizard, third-party survivor.
My wincon is: "You win with the winning team if you are alive at endgame."
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Post by guiri on Jun 17, 2011 5:58:47 GMT -5
FWIW there are quite a few reasons to vote Gnarly toDay aside from his reluctance to share any more of his role PM: - his D1 attempt to foil the lie detector - his interactions with Metallic after he claims to have learned she was scum, voting Moley instead - his initial delay in claiming - he waited till everyone else had claimed - the color coding fail in his claimed PM - his name wasn't in blue but the color tags are in his PM - the partial claim D5 - the claimed character: Mad Hatter - his choice? to kill Lightfoot, without having mentioned her at any time beforehand - not even a comment on my case against her, a good risk for a PFK to take in order to gain Town cred - the drawn out reveal of his second claimed power D6 - his choice? to kill CIAS rather than investigate him - the fact that he could have intentionally avoided the eavesdropper - his early vote on Archangel toDay for "t" - his request to us to wait "one more Day"
If there was a scum remaining, they'd only win if they survive to the final 2 and vote first. Given the number of confirmed or mutually-confirmed Townies, that looks extremely unlikely - specially if MHaye dies and his investigatees are confirmed. A PFK may well be able to win earlier, at final 6 (toMorrow?) or final 4.
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Post by Suburban Plankton on Jun 17, 2011 8:24:36 GMT -5
guiri,
If gnarlycharlie is a PFK, and there are no Scum remaining, then how do you explain septimus' death last Night?
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Post by guiri on Jun 17, 2011 9:53:15 GMT -5
guiri, If gnarlycharlie is a PFK, and there are no Scum remaining, then how do you explain septimus' death last Night? But if Moley is to be believed, he was not responsible for last Night's death, unless you believe he sent the kill order in Yesterday, and received a reply Yesterday, with no subsequent communication from The Mod last Night. While possible, I find that unlikely. I don't think it's unlikely that Gnarly submitted an order to kill Septimus before the end of the Day.
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