Santo Rugger
Mome Rath
The Obviously Innocent Townie
The Rugger formerly known as Pygmy[on:BYAHH!][of:BYAHH?]
Posts: 3
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Post by Santo Rugger on Oct 18, 2007 23:18:41 GMT -5
<snip> I'm confused. Read the part right after where you snipped it. I say myself "Or DB was just lying", hahahaha. Where's that smack head smiley at? After I read this, I read your entire quote again, and still didn't see it! I must have absentmindedly skipped over the parenthetical part of your last sentence. My apologies. Maybe BlaM was right, and I do snip more than I should?
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Oct 18, 2007 23:19:23 GMT -5
Here=hear.
Heh. Heh.
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Post by CatInASuit on Oct 18, 2007 23:59:36 GMT -5
So what the rest of the people are saying is that the simple explanation for panamajack's night attack is that
Greedy Smurf got his attack in before he was killed, but failed and in failing alerted panamajack to the fact he had been attacked.
Is that right?
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Oct 19, 2007 0:27:51 GMT -5
I can only speak for myself but I'm not saying that's how it happened or not....it's certainly plausible, however. *shrugs*
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Oct 19, 2007 0:38:36 GMT -5
Thanks for the minor coronary, dot . Considering my advocacy for the hammer countdown a few days back, and a handful of other things like my personal playing style and sense of fairness, I'd have to be 12 different kinds of stupid to hammer on you like that. No offense intended, Pygmy.
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Santo Rugger
Mome Rath
The Obviously Innocent Townie
The Rugger formerly known as Pygmy[on:BYAHH!][of:BYAHH?]
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Post by Santo Rugger on Oct 19, 2007 0:43:48 GMT -5
So what the rest of the people are saying is that the simple explanation for panamajack's night attack is that Greedy Smurf got his attack in before he was killed, but failed and in failing alerted panamajack to the fact he had been attacked.Is that right? No, we're saying it's an explanation, not the explanation.
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Post by CatInASuit on Oct 19, 2007 0:58:50 GMT -5
So what the rest of the people are saying is that the simple explanation for panamajack's night attack is that Greedy Smurf got his attack in before he was killed, but failed and in failing alerted panamajack to the fact he had been attacked.Is that right? No, we're saying it's an explanation, not the explanation. I think you missed the point, it's the simple explanation, but not the only explanation. If you can think of a simpler explanation, please tell (other than panamajack is not being truthful of course) I have pointed out some of the requirements for a more convoluted explanation already. Personally, I still don't buy it, but I've been wrong before.
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RoOsh
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Former BatMod
[on:Wanna see a magic trick?][of:See You, Space Cowboy....]
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Post by RoOsh on Oct 19, 2007 1:05:10 GMT -5
I'm not saying nothing on it yet. I'm looking at the scum in front of me, not the one in the bush. It could be a distraction. One thing at a time.
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Santo Rugger
Mome Rath
The Obviously Innocent Townie
The Rugger formerly known as Pygmy[on:BYAHH!][of:BYAHH?]
Posts: 3
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Post by Santo Rugger on Oct 19, 2007 1:08:49 GMT -5
No, we're saying it's an explanation, not the explanation. I think you missed the point, it's the simple explanation, but not the only explanation. <snip> I think you missed the point, I was joking. Sort of. I still find it odd that you didn't even mention that possibility, and completely excluded it in your smudge on panama. I'm not discounting the possibility that it slipped your mind while you were composing your post, or that, at the time you read drainbead's claim post, you tended to assume she was telling the truth, and I have no problem with that. My problem (and it's not a huge one, I'll explain later) is that you must have spent a considerable amount of effort, and put quite a bit of thought into compiling all the scenarios, while not even pondering that drainbead was lying. The reason that I don't think it's a huge deal is because I tend to still use my fingers when doing addition, and often have trouble with division and multiplication. However, I can fly through (physical) differential equations and manipulate vector calculus to suit my needs with ease. In other words, sometimes I'm so focused on advanced theories, that I forget about the simple ones.
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Oct 19, 2007 1:19:07 GMT -5
Anything that drain said has a huge pile of salt next to it when I contemplate what her actions may or may not have been. I think that clever (or maybe just lazy?) scum will have a tendency to include as much truth as they can to mix in with their lies, but I think it is a waste of time to try and figure out the little nuggets of truth, when you already know you're dealing with a shell game. However, with the closed set up, I could also see the scum being tempted to be much more aggressive with the lies, so I'm keeping the possibility that everything she said was bullshit in mind as well.
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Post by CatInASuit on Oct 19, 2007 1:31:00 GMT -5
I didn't consider the fact that Greedy Smurf was blocked by drainbead when thinking about it.
The simplest explanation I can think of is that panamajack is lying with the assumption that if Greedy Smurf was killed overnight then he didn't get to carry out his night kill.
For him to be telling the truth, the possiblities get more complicated and more assumptions have to be made. The simplest version I can see if he is telling the truth is
Greedy Smurf managed to get a night attack off before being killed with the assumption of a variable percentage to kill and the assumption that a failed kill allows the person being attacked to know they have been attacked. OR: There is the assumption of third nightkiller, who has not attempted a kill since, but has not failed a kill since they would have alerted the person being attacked OR: Someone other than Hal had a one-off special and was given a gift by someone other than dotchan, if she is telling the truth, which failed but allowed panamajack to know he was being attacked.
You can make more complicated versions to include an extra protector/blocker, drainbead telling the truth and so on.
I'll stick with the simplest option thanks.
Unless you can find something simpler with no more than one assumption.
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RoOsh
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Post by RoOsh on Oct 19, 2007 1:48:40 GMT -5
Or... since Day 1 activation, Hal is a Night killer of some sort. and has chosen to fess up for Idle today as a townie as he's completed his "mission"
If we're doing crazy theories. but it's one I want to find out. Starting with the activator and going down the line. If Dotchan is scum, I'm gonna look REAL damn hard at Hal then, and then all the people who've been trying NOT to vote Dotchan. That's my mental focus so far....
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Merestil Haye
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Grudge Keeper
[on:Slumming it in the Middle-Earth][of:In the halls of Manw
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Post by Merestil Haye on Oct 19, 2007 8:08:07 GMT -5
Dotchan. On Night 1, do you know if CaerieD actually decided not to bring River Tam in for the Alliance, or was it a scripted decision? That is, did Caerie instruct the Mods that if Hal was River, she would not bring her in? Or was the decision to bring Hal in not under her control? It looks like that was part of what the mod gave back as a result. Thank you. Now, what does this mean? It means I do not think Caerie.Chan is crew. If Caerie.Chan was Crew-aligned, why would her role essentially arm a known somewhat unstable (as I understand it) character with a lethal weapon and tell her to use it? The answer is, all too typically, that the character in question has been primed to kill someone the manipulating character wants dead. In the game, this probably translates to JE needing the extra kill for something to do with his win condition. I'm left with the overwhelming impression that whatever Caerie.chan is, she is not Crew-aligned as the result of the power is to spread chaos, and chaos is not in the Crew's favour. What this means for Hal I am not certain, but I trust him less than I did before (which isn't saying much). Since I do not believe Caerie.Chan is crew, I will Vote Caerie.Chan. * Watches Roosh with interest as he's never seen a man's brain melt before. *
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Merestil Haye
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[on:Slumming it in the Middle-Earth][of:In the halls of Manw
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Post by Merestil Haye on Oct 19, 2007 8:09:37 GMT -5
EBWOP :
That leaves Caerie.Chan one vote shy of the hammer.
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Post by Hal Briston on Oct 19, 2007 8:21:06 GMT -5
Or... since Day 1 activation, Hal is a Night killer of some sort. and has chosen to fess up for Idle today as a townie as he's completed his "mission" Wow...I'm glad I know the real deal, because that actually makes a lot of sense!
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RoOsh
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Post by RoOsh on Oct 19, 2007 9:01:27 GMT -5
Dotchan I'm still curious as to who you experimented" on the subsequent nights after Hal.... That's perhaps one of the scummiest things, is the lack of answers on that issue. It makes me think that you just made up that information and didn't really have anyone in mind. Or you might have done something to someone else, and refuse to tell us.... So i suppose its better with no info to prevent the WIFOM. But just an FYI, that really really didn't help your case in my eyes. I like people who answer Qs about themselves and actually try to help the town sort out the information, not just keep it to themselves.
And I swear... if you come back as MtS... (-_-) Well, at least then you'll be safe from a lynch.
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RoOsh
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Post by RoOsh on Oct 19, 2007 9:02:33 GMT -5
Mods, Could We get an Official Vote Count? And Can I ask for one with a list of the people who Have NOT voted a the bottom of it and whipped cream? It'd make my life ever so easier.
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Oct 19, 2007 9:08:50 GMT -5
Or... since Day 1 activation, Hal is a Night killer of some sort. and has chosen to fess up for Idle today as a townie as he's completed his "mission" Wow...I'm glad I know the real deal, because that actually makes a lot of sense! A lot of sense indeed...o_0 *tries to remember the funny "eyes on you" schpeel that atarus(?) so eloquently gave to wtf, fails, and sticks with the ascii eyes*
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Oct 19, 2007 9:13:59 GMT -5
Mods, Could We get an Official Vote Count? And Can I ask for one with a list of the people who Have NOT voted a the bottom of it and whipped cream? It'd make my life ever so easier. And can you include a reminder of the sub progressions? My memory of such is getting a little fuzzy around the edges. Pretty please? Oh...and I like just a splash of vanilla in my whipped cream. Thanks. ;D
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Post by NAF1138 on Oct 19, 2007 10:02:19 GMT -5
Mods, Could We get an Official Vote Count? And Can I ask for one with a list of the people who Have NOT voted a the bottom of it and whipped cream? It'd make my life ever so easier. And can you include a reminder of the sub progressions? My memory of such is getting a little fuzzy around the edges. Pretty please? Oh...and I like just a splash of vanilla in my whipped cream. Thanks. ;DVote count comming up, but as a reminder...you can track the subs by looking at the player list stickied to the top of this sub forum. And I will tell you who has not voted this once. But don't expect it to become a regular feature of the vote counts. There are few enough people playing now that it really isn't that hard to figure out on your own.
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Oct 19, 2007 10:09:38 GMT -5
Ah I see it now. Sorry for being a pest.
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Post by NAF1138 on Oct 19, 2007 10:12:06 GMT -5
8- DotchanV2 (Pygmy Rugger, Capt. Klutz, Roosh, Hockey Monkey, Hal Briston, dnooman, Cookies, mhaye)
2- CatinaSuit (zeriel, Idle Thoughts) 1- panamajack (CatInASuit) 1- Pygmy Rugger (mtgman)
12 of 17 votes cast
not voting: Dotchan Mad nesta panamajack WTF
with 17 alive it takes 9 to lynch.
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Post by NAF1138 on Oct 19, 2007 10:14:27 GMT -5
Ah I see it now. Sorry for being a pest. You are not a pest, if you don't know where it is there are probably others who don't know. Now I need to figure out how to transmit whipped cream with a splash of vanilla through the internet. There must be a way...I will consult with Kat and get back to you on that one.
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Oct 19, 2007 11:02:28 GMT -5
So is the hammer countdown running? Or does it only run when there's like...discussion and stuff?
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Santo Rugger
Mome Rath
The Obviously Innocent Townie
The Rugger formerly known as Pygmy[on:BYAHH!][of:BYAHH?]
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Post by Santo Rugger on Oct 19, 2007 11:46:53 GMT -5
[oog]My college homecoming starts today, and the alumni game is this afternoon. I'll be traveling today, and drinking tonight. It's a pretty heavy drinking weekend, and I get to buy all the (legal aged) college kids tons of booze. I'll be on sporadically, but when I am, I'll probably be hammered. No pun intended [/oog]
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Death By Irony
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The Former Mandate of Heaven/Current Gastard Night Mod
I'm my own mind-altering substance!
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Post by Death By Irony on Oct 19, 2007 11:56:27 GMT -5
Yeah, I got mixed up with the votes it takes to lynch. School work (marker fumes! Whee! XD) got to my brain.
Roosh, hasn't the last couple of Days told you that Flavor text doesn't mean much? It is what it is.
For posterity's sake, here are my other investigation targets: *Night Three - Idle Thoughts *Night Four - DarkCookies
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Santo Rugger
Mome Rath
The Obviously Innocent Townie
The Rugger formerly known as Pygmy[on:BYAHH!][of:BYAHH?]
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Post by Santo Rugger on Oct 19, 2007 12:24:00 GMT -5
<snip> Roosh, hasn't the last couple of Days told you that Flavor text doesn't mean much? It is what it is.<snip> Well, the Operative was the SK, Mr. Universe was indeed, a watcher, Simon Tam is the doctor, two brothers were Masons, Cookies is looking for her twin, and, low and behold, Jubial is looking for River!... I'd say that flavor text can, in fact, be useful. It's not the end all be all, of course, or the game would be broken, but it's proven that it can be used as a guide. I don't see how you say the flavor text doesn't mean much, when we have had exactly one example against it, and six examples for it.
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Santo Rugger
Mome Rath
The Obviously Innocent Townie
The Rugger formerly known as Pygmy[on:BYAHH!][of:BYAHH?]
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Post by Santo Rugger on Oct 19, 2007 13:22:33 GMT -5
Make that two, actually, I forgot about FCoD.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Oct 19, 2007 13:59:33 GMT -5
I'll gladly be the hammer if you guys want. But I'd prefer to let Day run the full course as the deadline is still three full days away and Day Four was so short.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Oct 19, 2007 14:06:57 GMT -5
A couple things:
1. I think scum WANT our Days to be short. So if anyone places the hammer down anytime soon, I, at least, will be immediatly suspicious of them. Not that that will do any good since I'm likely to die toNight but hey, I'll be protecting myself! So I've got a fifty percent chance! I guess you secret scum out there just have to ask yourself if you feel lucky.
Well, do ya? Punks?
Sorry, just had to say that. But seriously, I have a fifty-fifty chance, so we'll see what we'll see.
And if I do survive it, anyone who casts a hammer vote early I think has to be some kind of scum. I'm talking THIS early. Four days in advance early. Especially considering Day Four lasted only a few hours.
2. I have something to say to those true Townies still out there. I know not, for sure, who you all are but I have something to say to you that I want you all to remember in case I die toNight. To put it in the backs of your minds and remember from here on and it's very simple.
50% + 50% = 100% Doctor.
This does not have anything to do with anything that's happened so far.
And that's all I'm saying on the subject.
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