I'm writing a list-refining post to help get my thoughts in order.
Firstly, Alliance numbers.
My experience suggests that 25% of players in a minimalist game (ie one with Townies, Mafia, Cop and Bodyguard and no other special roles) is about right. That would mean 7 Alliance. However, the fact that the Alliance had some special powers (Roleblocker, camouflage and person-hunter), plus the fact that the closed setup tends to increase the ratio of Alliance information to Crew information in the early game persuades me that there were not as many as seven at start.
Clearly there is at least one more Alliance, or the game would be over.
So one or two? My gut feeling is two. Rereading the list of dead players and the sheer number of Crew power roles makes me think that it's more likely that there are two, so I'm going to assume that in the rest of this post.
This could either be two starting Alliance or one starter and one recruit. Recruitment has to be kept in mind as a possibility for anyone. The flavour is easy – the Alliance kidnap the victim, whisk them away to their hidden HQ and brainwash them. However, I also remember that one of the rules advisers for the game is adamantly against recruitment. I have no doubt that Jsexton advised NAFKat to get rid of any recruitment powers. Thus the two are likely to have been Alliance at the start. Again, let's assume at first no recruitment.
So who are the Alliance?
The remaining names and their claims.
CatinaSuit Wash, vanilla crew.
Hal Briston River Tam, Crew with concealment skill.
HockeyMonkey Li Shen, Vanilla Town
Idle Thoughts Simon Tam, Crew Doctor.
Mad the Swine => Dotchan Hector Sanchez, Mason.
Roosh Inara Serra, Crew. Backup Cop.
Sinjin => nesta Dr Mathias, Crew Sp. Investigator
whatthefrak => MHaye Zoe Washburn Crew Bodyguard
Yattara => Zeriel Top Dog?
?
Who of these can we eliminate?
First off the list is Idle Thoughts. The Mods told us his alignment at the Dawn of Day 5.
Second off the list is Mad.Chan. Mad's Mason claim was fairly well corroborated with the death of his fellow-Mason and no counterclaim was made. The only possibility for her to be Alliance is that they were opposite aligned at the start. The problem with a two-person Mason with one scum member is that the scum would orchestrate the death of the good guy very quickly. And this did happen. However, I dismissed the possibility because the other death that Night was the serial killer – and I doubt that the SK killed himself.
Third off the list is Hal Briston. There's a certain amount of corroboration for his claim, namely the role of Caerie.Chan.
Fourth off the list is me. I am Crew aligned. I don't expect you to necessarily believe me, but I am.
CatinaSuit Wash, vanilla crew.
HockeyMonkey Li Shen, Vanilla Town
Roosh Inara Serra, Crew. Backup Cop.
Sinjin => nesta Dr Mathias, Crew Sp. Investigator
Yattara => Zeriel Top Dog?
?
These fall neatly into two groups. Roosh and those he claims to have investigated, and those with no corroboration. The “Roosh group” is Roosh, HockeyMonkey and Nesta. The other group is CatinaSuit and Zeriel.
Roosh and Nesta corroborate each other's claims quite nicely. They could be in cahoots as the last two scum. The only test we have is to lynch one, preferably Nesta since Roosh is the more useful. (Lynching HM won't tell us enough). However that would void the possibility of Hal benefitting from Nesta's power if he wishes. So let's leave them a mo.
The other group is CatinaSuit and Zeriel. If there are two scum, they're both of them. Thus we could lynch either. If we get a scum result, bingo. If not, I've gone wrong somewhere. However, testing this hypothesis is less damaging to the Town.
Vote CatInASuit.