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Post by Silver Jan on Sept 9, 2011 12:30:45 GMT -5
As well; too. Sorry I was a bit peeved and the Afrikaans came out
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Post by Deni on Sept 9, 2011 12:37:37 GMT -5
nogal is afrikaan/english slang a little hard to translate. Mainly she is saying "in my first post no less" or "especially in my first post". I believe she felt insulted.
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Post by Deni on Sept 9, 2011 12:38:12 GMT -5
or I should have read the next page... oops...
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Post by Silver Jan on Sept 9, 2011 12:41:01 GMT -5
nogal is afrikaan/english slang a little hard to translate. Mainly she is saying "in my first post no less" or "especially in my first post". I believe she felt insulted. Thanks Deni, you explained it better than I could
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Post by Deni on Sept 9, 2011 12:42:49 GMT -5
Considering how hard it is on a normal first day to find scum, this would be like finding a needle in a haystack. To my way of thinking would it not make sense to vote for those most likely to be recruited? Looking for opinions since this is my first recruiting game. After someone is recruited do they get to know the rest of the possible recruits or do they have to wait until that nightfall? Not that it would make a difference now but it would differ how new recruits interact with possible recruits.
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Post by Deni on Sept 9, 2011 12:45:35 GMT -5
nogal is afrikaan/english slang a little hard to translate. Mainly she is saying "in my first post no less" or "especially in my first post". I believe she felt insulted. Thanks Deni, you explained it better than I could Well... it may not have been my first time you used afikaan/english slang on me. google is my friend - lol
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Post by Silver Jan on Sept 9, 2011 12:54:33 GMT -5
Considering how hard it is on a normal first day to find scum, this would be like finding a needle in a haystack. To my way of thinking would it not make sense to vote for those most likely to be recruited? Looking for opinions since this is my first recruiting game. After someone is recruited do they get to know the rest of the possible recruits or do they have to wait until that nightfall? Not that it would make a difference now but it would differ how new recruits interact with possible recruits. I must say I had never thought of a "New Recruit" knowing the other possible recruits. That could make it easier for scum if they do though cos they will be protecting a person on a lynch wagon. Today the lynch is so hard because the recruitment person doesn't even know that they have been recruited yet. The MPP is really going to lie low today! I can't see me being recruited 'cos I always look like scum.
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Post by Deni on Sept 9, 2011 13:04:38 GMT -5
That's what I was thinking with the recruits, it is possible we have pod people trying to protect possible recruits but the possibles don't even know that they are about to be podded. I am not sure if the MPP would lie low or not. We do tend to lynch the lurker the first day so I would think they would be involved enough but not overbearing. So basically anyone...
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Post by Silver Jan on Sept 9, 2011 13:09:57 GMT -5
The MPP could be anyone and if they have played a couple of games then they would know that "Lynch the Lurker" is a valid (if somewhat easy) vote. As far as I am concerned, toDay is going to be the hardest vote 'cos the only "bad" person is the MPP and all the rest are innocent.
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Post by Sister Coyote on Sept 9, 2011 13:17:06 GMT -5
The MPP could be anyone and if they have played a couple of games then they would know that "Lynch the Lurker" is a valid (if somewhat easy) vote. As far as I am concerned, toDay is going to be the hardest vote 'cos the only "bad" person is the MPP and all the rest are innocent. Yeah, this. Right now, we're all Town, so the options are to either find the MPP and end the game in a Day (unlikely, but not completely improbable) or keep someone on the recruitment list from getting recruited. Bill, I'm willing to give Jan's algebraic "slip" a pass for now as I, too, occasionally see numbers where there is a letter or vice-versa.
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Post by Silver Jan on Sept 9, 2011 13:26:10 GMT -5
Gosh, I never knew that my dyslexia would ever play an important role in a game
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Post by Paranoia on Sept 9, 2011 13:50:25 GMT -5
NETA cos If I was that stupid it would be game over before it started Looking at the rules it seems the game wouldn't be over until all the recruits were dead.
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Post by Inner Stickler on Sept 9, 2011 14:04:57 GMT -5
Considering how hard it is on a normal first day to find scum, this would be like finding a needle in a haystack. To my way of thinking would it not make sense to vote for those most likely to be recruited? Looking for opinions since this is my first recruiting game. After someone is recruited do they get to know the rest of the possible recruits or do they have to wait until that nightfall? Not that it would make a difference now but it would differ how new recruits interact with possible recruits. Terminology is going to be important here. Recruits are sampled townspeople and according to the setup thread, generally they won't know they've been recruited and they still win with town. If the sampling is not averted by the vaccine, then the recruited will become a Pod Person and it is at that moment when they will become aware of the other Pods, the MPP and the recruits. So to answer your question, recruits won't know anything until they become a Pod. The way I see it, we have two choices. Hunt for the MPP which, barring a PIS slip or some other fluke, has a roughly 1 in 15 chance of succeeding or attempt to eliminate Recruits by divining who the MPP would have chosen. Here we have better odds. Assuming that 4 is the upper bound of possible recruits we have a 1 in 3 chance of lynching someone who will be detrimental to town. (Assuming that the 4 people chosen by the MPP are not the 2 unempoddable roles.) With 3 recruits our odds drop to 4 out 15 and 2 recruits makes it 1 in 5. Still a lot better than the MPPs lone odds. Anybody who read the previous game, were Recruits labeled so in the lynch reveals?
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Post by Silver Jan on Sept 9, 2011 14:29:48 GMT -5
NETA cos If I was that stupid it would be game over before it started Looking at the rules it seems the game wouldn't be over until all the recruits were dead. That does make sense, It would be a very unbalanced game if there was only 1 target toDay. And the recruits were recruited on N0 and they still don't know who they are but on Day2 or N1 they should know, sorry, that's wrong, at least one of them will know that they have been recuited.
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Post by Dirx on Sept 9, 2011 14:36:34 GMT -5
Okay, regarding Jan's comment: There is this, which I immediately thought of when I first saw Jan mention 4 recruits. In fact, I even thought that was the stated number for this game, until I went back and checked the role descriptions when I ran the math for my first post. I didn't mention it until now because I wanted to see if she pointed to it or came up with some other excuse. I do believe Jan when she says she thought she read "4" somewhere. Yeah, the comment is referring to the other game, but it's there. And because it's in the signup thread, it's probably why she couldn't remember where she saw it. (And if she really is the MPP and that really was a slip, then feel free to point and laugh at me in the spoiled thread)
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Post by guiri on Sept 9, 2011 14:43:10 GMT -5
@ Silver Jan, it's plausible that you, as MPP, thought the number of recruits was common knowledge. I've been incorrect in my acusations of PIS in recent games but you saw Sangaman do the same thing in Mystery Mafia a few Days ago. Do I think you're the MPP? It's possible, the apparent slip nudges you over the joke and random votes.
@ Drain, I accused Romanic of PIS when I was 3rd party, and I accused Pedescribe of PIS when I was VT, I must be the exception that proves the rule. In fact you should be doubly suspicious of me as I questioned Dirx on his possible PIS while he was questioning Silver Jan on her possible PIS!
@ Inner, I think all the recruits were successfully converted into pod people on the designated Nights but I think Julie said a recruitee would appear as such when they died.
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Post by Silver Jan on Sept 9, 2011 14:55:06 GMT -5
Okay, regarding Jan's comment: There is this, which I immediately thought of when I first saw Jan mention 4 recruits. In fact, I even thought that was the stated number for this game, until I went back and checked the role descriptions when I ran the math for my first post. I didn't mention it until now because I wanted to see if she pointed to it or came up with some other excuse. I do believe Jan when she says she thought she read "4" somewhere. Yeah, the comment is referring to the other game, but it's there. And because it's in the signup thread, it's probably why she couldn't remember where she saw it. (And if she really is the MPP and that really was a slip, then feel free to point and laugh at me in the spoiled thread) I knew (or thought I knew) I had read it somewhere and I wanted to nail you cos you hadn't read everything lol, as the Americans say "my bad"
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Post by Sister Coyote on Sept 9, 2011 14:57:05 GMT -5
Gosh, I never knew that my dyslexia would ever play an important role in a game In my case it's more numislexia, but everything matters.
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Post by Inner Stickler on Sept 9, 2011 14:58:39 GMT -5
@ Inner, I think all the recruits were successfully converted into pod people on the designated Nights but I think Julie said a recruitee would appear as such when they died. Cool. It would be really difficult if we only got confirmation of Pod and MPP deaths. Aside: the conversion from domebo to mello has made the original game rather hard to read. Shame, really.
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Post by Silver Jan on Sept 9, 2011 15:04:10 GMT -5
@ Inner, I think all the recruits were successfully converted into pod people on the designated Nights but I think Julie said a recruitee would appear as such when they died. Cool. It would be really difficult if we only got confirmation of Pod and MPP deaths. Aside: the conversion from domebo to mello has made the original game rather hard to read. Shame, really. I beg your pardon, what are you talking about or should I know more about computers? At first I was going to say "HUH?" but that would have been rude
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Post by Inner Stickler on Sept 9, 2011 15:09:24 GMT -5
Julie's version of this game was played on a forum called domebo. A while back they changed the name and the software from domebo and phpBB to mellophant and vBulletin. They ported all the old threads over but there were some unfortunate side effects like anything that was coded to be in really small print is now obscenely large and links using domebo info no longer work, obviously.
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Post by guiri on Sept 9, 2011 15:48:38 GMT -5
If I were the MPP, I'd pick people that I knew were going to not get lynched right away and that were definitely going to be playing the game regularly. But unless anyone has an idea who the MPP is, this discussion will only come in useful as a reference in the days down the line. I know I don't really feel like making a possible recruits list for all of the other players. The way I see it, we have two choices. Hunt for the MPP which, barring a PIS slip or some other fluke, has a roughly 1 in 15 chance of succeeding or attempt to eliminate Recruits by divining who the MPP would have chosen. Here we have better odds. Assuming that 4 is the upper bound of possible recruits we have a 1 in 3 chance of lynching someone who will be detrimental to town. (Assuming that the 4 people chosen by the MPP are not the 2 unempoddable roles.) With 3 recruits our odds drop to 4 out 15 and 2 recruits makes it 1 in 5. Still a lot better than the MPPs lone odds. Anybody who read the previous game, were Recruits labeled so in the lynch reveals? In the first post you seem to say that discussion on possible recruits won't be useful until later in the game, unless anyone has an idea who the MPP is. In the second post you suggest we should attempt to guess who the potential recruits are and eliminate them. What made you change your mind or am I misreading your posts?
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Post by Inner Stickler on Sept 9, 2011 16:01:44 GMT -5
No, I'm just not being clear and using posts to think out loud rather than straight strategize. The MPP was chosen at random so to a certain extent, we can't identify them except through random voting. The utility that I was thinking of was that if people are posting now about who they would recruit, then once we know who some recruits are or ideally who the MPP is, then we have a better idea of where to go hunting.
The second post was me trying to look at it mathematically but I don't think it's actually all that useful because it's not like if we are only looking for the MPP and we lynch a recruit, we haven't lost as we need to kill the recruits to win so the 1 in 15 is a red herring. Assuming that there are 4 recruits and the MPP we are guaranteed a 1 in 3 chance of lynching scum or soon to be scum Today, which is really good odds, if you think about it. Even with 3 recruits, we only drop to what, 27% odds of lynching scum?
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Post by guiri on Sept 9, 2011 16:09:39 GMT -5
No, I'm just not being clear and using posts to think out loud rather than straight strategize. The MPP was chosen at random so to a certain extent, we can't identify them except through random voting. The utility that I was thinking of was that if people are posting now about who they would recruit, then once we know who some recruits are or ideally who the MPP is, then we have a better idea of where to go hunting. The second post was me trying to look at it mathematically but I don't think it's actually all that useful because it's not like if we are only looking for the MPP and we lynch a recruit, we haven't lost as we need to kill the recruits to win so the 1 in 15 is a red herring. Assuming that there are 4 recruits and the MPP we are guaranteed a 1 in 3 chance of lynching scum or soon to be scum Today, which is really good odds, if you think about it. Even with 3 recruits, we only drop to what, 27% odds of lynching scum? Do the three recruitable Town power roles affect the odds? We won't lynch a claimed, but not counter-claimed, Psychoanalyst, Sheriff or Mad Scientist on Day 1.
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Post by Inner Stickler on Sept 9, 2011 16:11:21 GMT -5
Unofficial Vote Count Silver Jan(2): guiri [51], BillMC [56] Peekercpa (1): sinjin [1], Drain Bead [21] Texcat (1): Paranoia [2] Drain Bead(1): sturmhawke [19] guiri (1): Drain Bead [53] Sturmhawke(0): Sister Coyote [3]
The case on Jan is a PIS slip regarding the number of recruits in play.
The votes for Peekercpa were both jokes as were the votes for Texcat and Drain Bead.
Drain Bead is voting for guiri on the assumption that scum are more likely than town to point out PIS slips.
Sister Coyote thought something was off about Sturmhawke's night 0 post and voted for him until he resurfaced.
That sound about right as a summation of the votes so far?
Day ends in about 49 hours.
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Post by Inner Stickler on Sept 9, 2011 16:15:45 GMT -5
Do the three recruitable Town power roles affect the odds? We won't lynch a claimed, but not counter-claimed, Psychoanalyst, Sheriff or Mad Scientist on Day 1. Probably but I don't have any idea how to start figuring that mathematically.
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Post by sinjin on Sept 9, 2011 18:37:37 GMT -5
I haven't posted much because of sudden, stupid family drama and the ensuing 500 mile drive to try to sort it out. Out sorted, back to the game;
I don't have much of a feel for how to play this type of game. Wifoming on who the MMP would pick when we have absolutely no information seems fruitless to me. Maybe after we kill the MMP or a couple of recruits we will be able to see a pattern, toDay not so much.
The quick votes for Silver Jan have me going HHHHHHHMMMMMM. Especially given comment in the sign-up thread.
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Post by texcat on Sept 9, 2011 19:08:48 GMT -5
So at the moment there is really only 1 scum and 4 potential scum. Where are you getting 4? The posted role description and PM don't give a specific number of recruits.What numbers did you run to deduce that scum couldn't win before N4? The original version of this game had the MPP select 4 recruits. There were 17 players. Not much to go on at the moment. I went back to look at Silver Jan's "4" comment, and note that actually Dirx was the one who questioned her about it first. Then Guiri had questions about both Jan's "4 recruits" comment and Dirx's N4 comment. But Dirx's previous to Jan's post may have started all of the "4" speculation, and may actually be where Jan first saw 4. I'm not sure about Drain Bead's theory that scum are more likely to point out PIS, but it seems to me that Dirx is the one who first pointed it out. Guiri is the first to have voted for it.
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Post by Drain Bead on Sept 9, 2011 20:06:09 GMT -5
Fair enough. I actually caught that on reread and was going to do this anyway...
Unvote: Guiri Vote: Dirx
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Post by Red Skeezix on Sept 9, 2011 20:55:18 GMT -5
Dirx/Silver Jan could be a slip. Maybe even Dirx inspired Silver Jan to make that comment. I don't buy it. Assuming scum would make such a simple mistake this early in the game, I guess it's possible but the idea that there's 4 total scum in this game is preposterous, given the open nature and the recruitibility of some of the power roles, I think 3 is far more likely.. So I don't feel that it could be a PIS, as it fails the "perfect" part of the test.
Given that dirx made the same assumption as jan and then voted jan for it, stinks to high heaven.
For now,
vote Dirx
Also, if it's been discussed i've missed it, but i'm entertaining thoughts of the Nosy Reporter claiming, so that the scientist can vaccinate and the sherriff can protect. But I can see potetial downsides to that (sherriff and scientist can be recruited). What other pros and cons are there for this scenario?
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