Death By Irony
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The Former Mandate of Heaven/Current Gastard Night Mod
I'm my own mind-altering substance!
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Post by Death By Irony on Nov 10, 2007 14:15:56 GMT -5
Sorry. Go back and read his post. I have. Twice. He makes NO mention of alignment. In fact, he specifically says along the lines of "all I got was nestas specific role name". Go back and read it. He did not seem to get a side. He said nesta was "Crew Investigator, role-specific". He also makes a post explaining his breadcrumbs stating that he investigated nesta as Pro-Town. Mostly it's just me being paranoid. (For all I know, Roosh could have bluffed about his retaliatory power so that scum would think twice about targeting him...if mhaye is telling the truth, then this Morning's scenario--that mhaye failed in the protection, and nobody else died--only had a 25% chance of happening.)
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Post by Zeriel on Nov 10, 2007 14:44:13 GMT -5
This is why I'm inclined to doubt mhaye--he's pushing around doubt on people confirmed by our investigator by only posting half the story.
As for the fact that mhaye's bodyguard power was never claimed to be retaliatory, I already think he's lying about it, so it's not too much of a stretch to assume he'd've planned to come out with a "heh, I didn't mention the fact they'd die from my bodyguarding awesomeness. I'm so much better than Roosh."
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Merestil Haye
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Post by Merestil Haye on Nov 10, 2007 16:22:03 GMT -5
Sorry this took so long. I tried something new for lunch and had some problems concentrating as a result. I set the post aside for a while after tea.
I went through the Nightkills reviewing who died when in the light of current knowledge, particularly the knowledge that we did have a Vigilante in the game. I was particularly curious about Night 2, and that unexplained attack on Panamajack.
So far we have had nine nights. Disregarding Night 1, we had three killers on Night 2, two on Nights 3 to 7 inclusive and 1 on Nights 8 and 9.
We've had the expected number of kills on Nights 4, 7, 8 and 9.
Night 5 is explicable by Hal's admission that he took a swing at Idle Thoughts. This is corroborated by the role of Caerie.Chan and her testimony before she died.
Night 3 had only one kill. This could be because the two killers targeted the same victim, one passed up the chance to kill or the other ran into a protected target and failed the kill.
Night 6 is of course the Night of DarkCookies's brainfade. It looks from that post as if the Alliance were cooking up some plot (involving killing one of their own) and DarkCookies, at least, ran afoul of a deadline problem. We can't tell if Pygmy Rugger (who appeared to be the one responsible for informing the Mods of the kill target) made the same mistake.
What interests me about the low Kill nights is that if there was a recruitment - and I emphasise the if - then these would be the Nights to look at. DarkCookies's post doesn't sound to me as if recruitment was on the agenda that Night. The only possible Night for a recruitment would thus be Night 3.
Most of my attention was on Night 2 though. We had two deaths – Greedy Smurf and DiggitCamara. The generally accepted theory was that GS killed DC and was in turn killed by the Alliance. This left unexplained Panamajack's mysterious attacker that he fought off.
Now we know there were three operating killers, we can dismiss this theory.
The simplest hypothesis that explains all the events is that Panamajack, Greedy Smurf and the Alliance all sent in kill targets and by some freak of chance the two independent killers – Greedy and Panamajack – were targets. The only things we can say for sure about the targets were that neither killer targeted themselves. Panamajack survived the attack on him not by fighting it off but by bribing his attacker.
Why this is relevant now is that it increases my suspicion of Mad.Chan. When Diggit died and was shown to be a Mason and his role details so closely matched Mad's Day 1 claim, it crossed my mind to wonder whether we had a case of good guy / bad guy Masonry, because the death of Diggit so serendipitously confirmed Mad's claim. If Mad.Chan was Alliance, they could have killed Diggit to confirm Mad. I dismissed the idea because the Alliance didn't kill Diggit – or so we thought at the time. But as we've just seen, that's wrong, isn't it?
Consequently, Mad.Chan has just moved up into second place in my list of likely Alliance candidates. Zeriel remains top of the list, with Hal and Nesta, then HockeyMonkey and finally Idle Thoughts.
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Merestil Haye
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Post by Merestil Haye on Nov 10, 2007 16:43:17 GMT -5
As for the fact that mhaye's bodyguard power was never claimed to be retaliatory, I already think he's lying about it, so it's not too much of a stretch to assume he'd've planned to come out with a "heh, I didn't mention the fact they'd die from my bodyguarding awesomeness. I'm so much better than Roosh." That's a better way to handle a trap role than Roosh's claim. I was suspicious of him for a very long time in part because his Day 1 roleclaim mentioned a chance of killing his attacker. My role PM mentions nothing about an ability to kill the person attacking whoever I protect. Just that there is a 50% chance that the attack fails.
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Death By Irony
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The Former Mandate of Heaven/Current Gastard Night Mod
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Post by Death By Irony on Nov 10, 2007 22:51:28 GMT -5
I went back and read Idle's posts again...he makes his first breadcrumb about his powers being split back on Day Five, when he was mod-confirmed as Simon Tam. So that means I can relax a bit now about the truth of THAT particular factoid and shoot a bigger, pointier FoS on mhaye. (Mind you, most of my suspicion still lies on the fact that wtf claimed back when Idle retained his full power, and I have serious problems believing that Crew could have so many power roles.)
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Death By Irony
FGM
The Former Mandate of Heaven/Current Gastard Night Mod
I'm my own mind-altering substance!
Posts: 109
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Post by Death By Irony on Nov 11, 2007 13:14:21 GMT -5
For the suspicions I've already listed, and for repeatedly raising the spectre of recruitment though we have no proof of it, vote mhaye.
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Gir!
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EVIL Demon Goddess Mod
What? Kat is sweet and innocent!
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Post by Gir! on Nov 11, 2007 23:42:33 GMT -5
Coming-Up-To-The-Deadline Official Vote Count
zeriel (2): Hal Briston, hockeymonkey mhaye (1): dotchan by irony
And NAF, I didn't update the vote spreadsheet because I can't load the damn thing!
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Post by Zeriel on Nov 12, 2007 9:02:45 GMT -5
vote mhaye
I can't see how it can be anyone but mhaye or dotchan. (unless it's nesta and Hal, and that seems so unlikely as to be barely worth mentioning.)
Yeah, you all have a strong case for it being me or mhaye, but I know it's not me. =P
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Post by Zeriel on Nov 12, 2007 9:03:46 GMT -5
NETA: (dotchan being only possible with really evil mods, for that matter, since usually if you have opposite-aligned lovers/siblings/masons, they both die if one dies).
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Post by NAF1138 on Nov 12, 2007 11:44:05 GMT -5
It's all tied up, and with only a few hours to go.
zeriel (2): Hal Briston, hockeymonkey mhaye (2): dotchan by irony, zeriel
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Nov 12, 2007 13:08:16 GMT -5
I'm fine with either a vote of zeriel or MHaye.
Vote MHaye to start with, though.
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Merestil Haye
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Post by Merestil Haye on Nov 12, 2007 13:41:40 GMT -5
I hate rl, dragging me away from playing Mafia...
To Mad.Chan : I came into Today believing there were two Alliance left (whether original Alliance or one plus recruit it matters not). I also knew that the two people who an outside observer would conclude were most likely to be Alliance were Zeriel and I, and that therefore the simplest hypothesis was that the two of us were those players.
Since I know that's wrong, then either I'm wrong with the numbers or at least one of the people with some degree of confirmation is not Crew-aligned. If one of you is Alliance, which is the most likely?
Most of my work Today has been to try and work out if there is more than one and if so who the second is (because the number 1 suspect on my list is still Zeriel).
I'm going to vote Zeriel because he's the person I think most likely to be Alliance.
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Post by nesta on Nov 12, 2007 14:07:48 GMT -5
If there are two scum left we can afford one more mis-lynch. If there are three then both mhaye and zerial are scum because I can only imagine there being one recruit and everyone else is essentially verified. So that leaves the play for Today and Tomorrow fairly straightforward. Lynch either mhaye or zerial Today, lynch the other Tomorrow, and if the game is still going it's three handed mafia trying to find the recruit.
This discounts any strange scum special powers that might interfere with that, though, so we still need to try to find the most likely scum Today. My money is on mhaye, but I'll wait to hammer until a little closer to the deadline in case anyone else has something to say.
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Post by nesta on Nov 12, 2007 14:11:11 GMT -5
Since all the votes except mine are in I could hammer earlier if the Mods say they can end the Day any earlier than the deadline. If they can't I might as well hold off.
NAF, Kat, when is the earliest you could end the Day?
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Nov 12, 2007 16:25:49 GMT -5
Uh, huh? Day ends AUTOMATICALLY when there is majority. Otherwise it goes to the deadline and there is no lynch. You've been in this game all this time and didn't know that?
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Post by Hal Briston on Nov 12, 2007 16:30:09 GMT -5
Perhaps I'm too forgiving in my reading. I took that to mean "When is the earliest you could do the dusk post".
Of course, that's not what he said, so it's quite likely I'm wrong about that...
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Post by nesta on Nov 12, 2007 17:17:23 GMT -5
I meant what Hal said. I know the day ends as soon as the hammer falls, but if we can't find out the results until the deadline anyway I might as well wait until near the deadline to see if anyone else wants to chime in.
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Post by nesta on Nov 12, 2007 18:12:01 GMT -5
I've been skimming through zerial's posts and he's seeming very scummy to me now. I can't shake my initial scum read on WTF/mhaye, though, and I fear I'm reading zerial's posts trying to make him scum instead of reading them objectively. I'm hoping either they are both scum or there's only one left and if I'm wrong we can try again Tomorrow.
Decisions, decisions.
I'm going to go with my initial read and
Vote mhaye
I hope I didn't just lose the game for us.
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Post by dnooman on Nov 12, 2007 19:06:35 GMT -5
So, is Mhaye dead?
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Post by nesta on Nov 12, 2007 19:12:25 GMT -5
I think he is. Just waiting for our Mods to come tell us how badly I screwed up. Of course, you dead people already know.
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Post by Boozahol Squid, P.I. on Nov 12, 2007 19:33:24 GMT -5
<rattling chains> Yes, we do.... intriguing decision, there, nesta. </rc>
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Post by NAF1138 on Nov 12, 2007 20:48:50 GMT -5
ok ok, I am back. Sorry I wan't here sooner to end this thing. I can't post the dusk post right now. But yes, mhaye is lynched.
Back in a few. Kat may have to handle this dusk. Not sure yet.
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Gir!
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EVIL Demon Goddess Mod
What? Kat is sweet and innocent!
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Post by Gir! on Nov 12, 2007 20:55:23 GMT -5
The Day's discussion was slow and halting as the Townsfolk wavered back and forth between the few suspects that were still at large. mhaye and zeriel were brought up for discussion several times, and as the Day drew to a close, Dr. nesta Mathias cast the deciding vote for Zoe mhaye Washburne.
The Townsfolk descended on mhaye with a vengeance, and she made a valiant attempt to flee to safety on the Serenity; however, when she opened the entry hatch, a stream of tribbles tumbled out.
Both lynchers and intended victim pause to 'ooh' and 'aah' over the adorable fuzzballs.
"Ah, how cute, they're purring" says mhaye.
"Oh look they're kissing me."
"Oh my rutting Og they're biting me!!!!"
"Stop, Stop, you're loving me too much!"
"STOP, OWOWOWOWOWOWOWOW....owowow...."
Yes unfortunately the tribbles have caught the dreaded Pax virus. However, instead of making them into tiny tribble cannibals it causes them to have an insatiable desire for human flesh. mhaye is horrifically nibbled to death by the cute fuzzy wuzzy's who continue to purrrrrrr as they consume Crew member's flesh until only bones remain. And finally when all the tribbles have rolled away licking their tiny sharp teeth, the bones say "Damn it Jim, I'm not a luncheon, I'm only an Alliance Tough Guy!"
The Crew is aghast to discover that their beloved Zoe was brainwashed by the Alliance. Apparently, the tribble bites offset the brainwashing enough for her to confess her evil deeds, but alas, even the skills of Dr. Simon "Idle Thoughts" Tam are not enough to save her.
Death scene courtesy of sinjin.
As the remaining Crewmembers look around to count who is left among them, they realize that Zoe was the last of the Alliance agents infiltrating this planet. Their relief is tempered by grief at the loss of their friends and comrades, but they are thankful that, for now at least, they can set aside their worries over the Alliance.
Congratulations, Town!
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