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Day Two
Jan 24, 2012 7:40:26 GMT -5
Post by special on Jan 24, 2012 7:40:26 GMT -5
A little over 7 hours. Can we lynch please?
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Day Two
Jan 24, 2012 7:54:51 GMT -5
Post by CatInASuit on Jan 24, 2012 7:54:51 GMT -5
Nope, I'm good. I figure we're likely to have some wolves voting for Idle before he claimed. I took off the ones I felt were least likely to be wolves. So, while it might not be powerful reasoning, it's certainly not flawed. Yes it is, you might as well just pick the first ten people on the signup list and say there is likely to be a wolf in there, so you are going to vote for them all, removing anyone who has claimed. Besides, what about voting for scum in general, rather than just trying to find a wolf.
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Day Two
Jan 24, 2012 8:09:11 GMT -5
Post by CatInASuit on Jan 24, 2012 8:09:11 GMT -5
i've made it clear outside of the sign up thread that this is really unacceptable to me. Tough. ;D Similar to Ed, CIAS doesn't seem terribly interested in who gets lynched. Although his voting is nowhere near as crappy as Ed's, it does seem designed to absolve him of any real responsibility for justifying his votes. We can't ask "why did you vote for XXX?", because his default position is "everybody is guilty". Unless someone presents clear evidence that they are Town, the vote remains. So he has a plausible reason to vote for anyone who is the least bit suspicious (which could be any player at any time). That's a really easy stance to take for a vote against me. My current position is to see if people can convince me they are actively looking to lynch scum. As Town that is the best option we have, lynch scum. If some scum want to lynch other scum, that's fine by me. It also means you didn't read #82 where I pointed out how scummy gnarlycharlie looks. I'm still looking for scum as well. Case against them: Pollux Oil and Inner Stickler are not posting and possibly lurking, and lurking is scummy Being away =/= lurking. I was at at a friend's for the weekend. He's getting married and best man duties trump mafia. I posted as such in the going to be away thread. Guess I should also post in here so people notice. Pollux Oil, you are quite right, please accept my apologies. Being away is not the same as lurking. It was aimed as more of a hypothetical at septimus, who had obviously read the going away thread. At least more than I had.
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Day Two
Jan 24, 2012 8:20:04 GMT -5
Post by CatInASuit on Jan 24, 2012 8:20:04 GMT -5
Game state:
12 votes are needed to lynch.
Top four are:
9 votes texcat: septimus (17-158), CatInASuit (20), guiri (54), scathach (79), Mr Special Ed (80), Idle Thoughts (125), Pollux Oil (136), Suburban Plankton (142), Drain Bead (164). SilverJan (175)
7 votes Boozahol Squid: CatInASuit (20), scathach (79), Hoopy Frood (150), septimus (158), peekercpa (163), Drain Bead (164), colby11 (168).
6 votes Inner Stickler: CatInASuit (20), Hoopy Frood (37), septimus (108), texcat (111), Pollux Oil (136), Nanook (141). gnarlycharlie: CatInASuit (20), Hoopy Frood (37), septimus (65), scathach (96), Silver Jan (109), MHaye (176)
Of the above, I would be happy with a texcat or gnarlycharlie lynch as I am unhappy about their play and am ambivalent about a Boozahol Squid or Inner Stickler, who have done nothing to show they are townie.
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Day Two
Jan 24, 2012 8:52:00 GMT -5
Post by CatInASuit on Jan 24, 2012 8:52:00 GMT -5
Interesting thought, the main voters for texcat are roughly the same as for mahaloth on Day 1.
That would make a certain amount of sense if they were both Wolves. As a block, if they don't vote for someone the lynch amount goes from 1/2 votes available to probably about 2/3 the votes of the other factions combined, which is a much more difficult prospect.
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Day Two
Jan 24, 2012 8:57:16 GMT -5
Post by special on Jan 24, 2012 8:57:16 GMT -5
Nope, I'm good. I figure we're likely to have some wolves voting for Idle before he claimed. I took off the ones I felt were least likely to be wolves. So, while it might not be powerful reasoning, it's certainly not flawed. Yes it is, you might as well just pick the first ten people on the signup list and say there is likely to be a wolf in there, so you are going to vote for them all, removing anyone who has claimed. Besides, what about voting for scum in general, rather than just trying to find a wolf. These are all good points! 1. There ARE likely to be wolves in the first 10 who signed up. However, by looking for motivation, I can say that, assuming Mahaloth was Wolf, other wolves would have a motivation to have voted for Idle before he claimed, making them more likely than any randomly selected player. 2. It would be great to find any non-Town player. I'll use all the voting strategies that might have been employed by Undead and Cabal in the Maholth lynch to find them. OK, I'm done with that, and I got nothing.
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Day Two
Jan 24, 2012 9:25:08 GMT -5
Post by septimus on Jan 24, 2012 9:25:08 GMT -5
Wha??? Does texcat have some pictures of you in a compromising situation or something? I never really changed my mind; I just liked the other cases, and wanted to see developments without an overriding bandwagon. But as deadline approaches, priority changes. Vote: texcat(BTW, please warn in advance of any plans to compromise me. I need to adjust meds before subjecting my heart to sudden excitement.)
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Day Two
Jan 24, 2012 9:35:46 GMT -5
Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 24, 2012 9:35:46 GMT -5
Why is it that you trust me when I say I got the third role on my wish list? Am I just that trustworthy of a guy? Because there's really no reason to say you got the third if you didn't actually get the third. It's not like as scum it's going to buy you any sort of cred. No one knows what roles you actually chose, so why say you got your third choice when you really got your first? (Of course, knowing that there are only two undead roles, maybe you used third choice to lead us away from you being undead.) And I explained pretty clearly why I believe you didn't get wolf. I'm not ruling out you being undead completely, but I think it's more likely you're cabal or town.
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Day Two
Jan 24, 2012 9:39:37 GMT -5
Post by special on Jan 24, 2012 9:39:37 GMT -5
And I explained pretty clearly why I believe you didn't get wolf. I'm not ruling out you being undead completely, but I think it's more likely you're cabal or town. had you mentioned suspicion of me being Cabal before? I mean, I can understand one reason why, given that you'd ruled out Wolf and undead why you would also rule out Cabal...
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Day Two
Jan 24, 2012 9:50:22 GMT -5
Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 24, 2012 9:50:22 GMT -5
And I explained pretty clearly why I believe you didn't get wolf. I'm not ruling out you being undead completely, but I think it's more likely you're cabal or town. had you mentioned suspicion of me being Cabal before? I mean, I can understand one reason why, given that you'd ruled out Wolf and undead why you would also rule out Cabal... I don't believe I've mentioned suspicion of you being Cabal before, but I think I've been pretty consistent in stating that at this point in the game wolves and undead are a much bigger danger than the Cabal. Cabal want the wolves and undead lynched just as much as town does, and lynching cabal furthers both the wolf and undead win conditions simultaneously just as lynching town does. So if you're cabal, at this point I not too concerned. But give me a cycle or two and then the gamestate will be clearer and it'll probably be time to start looking for cabal.
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Day Two
Jan 24, 2012 9:56:07 GMT -5
Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 24, 2012 9:56:07 GMT -5
And since it's pretty apparent my first choice is not going to be lynched, to prevent a no-lynch I'll
Vote: texcat
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Day Two
Jan 24, 2012 10:02:33 GMT -5
Post by Drain Bead on Jan 24, 2012 10:02:33 GMT -5
Looks like we need one more vote to get to the lynch threshold. It's going down just like yesterDay, as CIAS pointed out, with yet another parallel--no roleclaim. Waiting until the last minute is also hella Scummy.
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Day Two
Jan 24, 2012 10:17:30 GMT -5
Post by CatInASuit on Jan 24, 2012 10:17:30 GMT -5
1. There ARE likely to be wolves in the first 10 who signed up. However, by looking for motivation, I can say that, assuming Mahaloth was Wolf, other wolves would have a motivation to have voted for Idle before he claimed, making them more likely than any randomly selected player. So, if you are looking for a wolf, what's the motivation for someone who voted both Mahaloth and Idle Thoughts at the same time?
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Day Two
Jan 24, 2012 10:36:00 GMT -5
Post by Suburban Plankton on Jan 24, 2012 10:36:00 GMT -5
I think that the biggest strike against texcat Today has nothing to do with yesterDay's voting, but with his response to Today's votes. When I am Town and facing a lynch, I try to do two things:
a) convince the rest of the players that I am Town b) get all of my thoughts out for everyone to read in hopes that they can be useful if I fail to accomplish a)
texcat has done almost none of either.
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Day Two
Jan 24, 2012 10:36:34 GMT -5
Post by peekercpa on Jan 24, 2012 10:36:34 GMT -5
A little over 7 hours. Can we lynch please? since you ask so nicely. i know there are some votes here that i can count on at least from a motivation standpoint. vote texcatand just to keep the vote record a wee bit cleaner. unvote all. consider the unvotes kind of an FOS. AIIIIIEEEEEEE (did i really use that fucking term?)
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Day Two
Jan 24, 2012 10:37:40 GMT -5
Post by peekercpa on Jan 24, 2012 10:37:40 GMT -5
oh fcs. i bet the unvote unvoted tex where the vote was really intended to be voted.
vote tex
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Day Two
Jan 24, 2012 10:51:19 GMT -5
Post by Nanook on Jan 24, 2012 10:51:19 GMT -5
While I disagree with the reasoning as I stated before, a questionable to my mind lynch is still better than no lynch. And to prevent any last minute shenanigans, Vote: texcat .
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Day Two
Jan 24, 2012 11:03:11 GMT -5
Post by Suburban Plankton on Jan 24, 2012 11:03:11 GMT -5
Interesting thought, the main voters for texcat are roughly the same as for mahaloth on Day 1. That would make a certain amount of sense if they were both Wolves. As a block, if they don't vote for someone the lynch amount goes from 1/2 votes available to probably about 2/3 the votes of the other factions combined, which is a much more difficult prospect. these are the people that didn't vote for mahaloth on Day 1: BillMc Boozahol Squid deon gnarlycharlie hirkatbawa Hoopy Frood Inner Stickler Merestil Haye Sister Coyote Suburban Plankton texcat These are the people who are not voting for texcat today (as of Post 196): BillMc Boozahol Squid deon gnarlycharlie hirkatbawa Inner Stickler Merestil Haye Sister Coyote texcat The only differences between those lists is that Suburban and Hoopy are voting Today, and did not vote yesterDay, and colby votes yesterDay but not Today So who are these people who don't want to go along with the crowd? BillMc - 1 post, no votes Boozahol Squid - 6 posts, 1 vote (on Day 1) deon - 1 post, no votes gnarlycharlie - 7 posts, 5 votes hirkatbawa - no posts Inner Stickler - 7 posts (all day 1), no votes Merestil Haye - 15 posts, 1 vote Sister Coyote - 5 posts (all Day 1), 1 vote I left texcat out of the list because I can't really expect her to vote for herself. The majority of the folks left in the pool are non-participatory, and with the excpetion of
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Day Two
Jan 24, 2012 11:10:27 GMT -5
Post by Suburban Plankton on Jan 24, 2012 11:10:27 GMT -5
crap...hit 'Enter' by mistake there...
with the exception of gnarlycharlie, these folks are essentially non-voters.
I'm not sure exactly what we're to draw from this. I think it's too much to hope for that all of the Wolves are among the non-participants, so either we're wrong somewhere or we've got a few wolves who are content to bus each other.
I was hoping this exercise would uncover something a bit more telling, and probably would have deleted that last post rather than submitting it, except for my slippery fingers...
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Day Two
Jan 24, 2012 11:13:18 GMT -5
Post by Sister Coyote on Jan 24, 2012 11:13:18 GMT -5
I'm still not thrilled with Boozy's play yesterday, but I have to agree with the case on Tex today:
Vote: Texcat
"meatspace" has been kicking my ass these last couple of weeks and it isn't looking to improve any time soon, so my participation will be sporadic at best.
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Post by special on Jan 24, 2012 11:39:04 GMT -5
1. There ARE likely to be wolves in the first 10 who signed up. However, by looking for motivation, I can say that, assuming Mahaloth was Wolf, other wolves would have a motivation to have voted for Idle before he claimed, making them more likely than any randomly selected player. So, if you are looking for a wolf, what's the motivation for someone who voted both Mahaloth and Idle Thoughts at the same time? To provide an alternative lynch target while appearing not to be on Mahaloth's team if he dies. Look at it this way: if one were a wolf presented with the situation, to avoid voting for Mahaloth will look bad if he dies. However, since multiple voting is allowed, you can effectively cancel your vote by also voting for the other leading candidate. Is it rock-solid reasoning for a vote? No. Is it good enough for Day 2 when most of the players I'm unsure of are likely to be non-town? You betcha!
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Day Two
Jan 24, 2012 11:39:54 GMT -5
Post by gnarlycharlie on Jan 24, 2012 11:39:54 GMT -5
i think i'm caught up.
let me address mostly posts addressed to me as that's what i have time for.
septimus, if you weren't a uncounterclaimed coroner, you'd have my vote. you're smudging players left and right. just because you may be town it doesn't mean you can be irresponsible in throwing out stuff. also accusing of being wolf for not voting mahaloth is silly. assuming he is wolf, how would i know that? your logic escapes me.
as for the mahaloth lynch, i didn't have time to address that and frankly i didn't agree with the case. i guess votes are cheap if i get two votes for not commenting on his lynch.
jan, if you read my vote, it wasn't only OMGUS otherwise i would have voted for ALL those who did.
while i'm not against a texcat lynch, i won't vote her because i'll be accused of voting when it doesn't count.
still for the record, i will still
Vote Boozahol Squid
for the same reason as D1.
the other ones i voted for are either dead or claimed.
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Day Two
Jan 24, 2012 12:17:14 GMT -5
Post by texcat on Jan 24, 2012 12:17:14 GMT -5
I was actually hoping that there would not be enough votes for a lynch, so that town might realize the craziness of lynching the active instead of the inactive. Very soon if we keep voting off the active players, there will not be enough people voting to lynch anyone. For not casting a vote in this game at all, Vote: BillMc He was away Yesterday, but said he would catch up. Vote: hirkatbawa Vote: deon Re Vote: InnerStickler He was around long enough to get some heat, and then may have realized the best way to stay alive is to disappear.
I will also claim that I am a witchdoctor. I claim now because it might help town to know this earlier rather than later when evaluating subsequent claims.
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Day Two
Jan 24, 2012 12:23:43 GMT -5
Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 24, 2012 12:23:43 GMT -5
while i'm not against a texcat lynch, i won't vote her because i'll be accused of voting when it doesn't count.. Interesting choice of words. Why would you fear an "accusation"? You have other cases you've made, so it's not as if it would be your only vote. Sure, it's not going to buy you any cred if she flips wolf, but it's not as if the situation is your sole vote is hiding on a large bandwagon. That would be a reason for people to take issue. But you have other cases, and voting to ensure a lynch happens is a good thing. (Though, at this point, I can't see the lynch not happening barring a claim since a lot of heat will come down on anyone who unvotes.)
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Colby11
Administrator
Creator of Hell's Kitchen Mafia
Posts: 1,193
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Day Two
Jan 24, 2012 12:28:53 GMT -5
Post by Colby11 on Jan 24, 2012 12:28:53 GMT -5
I don't see the whole texcat lynch, to be perfectly honest. Which is why I'm not voting for her. If she turns up town, then everyone was wrong. If she doesn't turn up town, then I guess I was wrong... again
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Day Two
Jan 24, 2012 12:31:57 GMT -5
Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 24, 2012 12:31:57 GMT -5
And I see the claim has come out.
I'm fine unvoting, since she's not my first choice, but we need to have more people move and agree on the same target, which is going to be difficult at this point.
And last minute claims suck.
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Colby11
Administrator
Creator of Hell's Kitchen Mafia
Posts: 1,193
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Day Two
Jan 24, 2012 12:35:04 GMT -5
Post by Colby11 on Jan 24, 2012 12:35:04 GMT -5
Well, now I look stupid, especially since I wrote that before I saw texcat's claim.
Hoopy, what do you suggest?
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Day Two
Jan 24, 2012 12:36:32 GMT -5
Post by texcat on Jan 24, 2012 12:36:32 GMT -5
I didn't claim to have everyone unvote. It seems unlikely that we could ever get enough votes to lynch someone else at this point. If you think I am a wolf, where do you think that alternate bandwagon is? Does it seem likely that the wolves would just concede another of their own so easily?
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Day Two
Jan 24, 2012 12:52:21 GMT -5
Post by Nanook on Jan 24, 2012 12:52:21 GMT -5
Trying to switch votes with less than an hour to go for a Witchdoctor claim just seems like a recipe for disaster, like we're just begging to accidentally land on a Witch or something.
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Day Two
Jan 24, 2012 12:54:52 GMT -5
Post by Suburban Plankton on Jan 24, 2012 12:54:52 GMT -5
still for the record, i will still [ color=Blue] Vote Boozahol Squid[/color] for the same reason as D1. the other ones i voted for are either dead or claimed.[/quote] Is something preventing you from considering a vote an anyone you didn't vote for yesterDay?
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