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Post by peekercpa on Feb 6, 2012 22:16:30 GMT -5
wait a sam hill minute. i choose to use my secret power. and i have to do it publicy. i reconstitute jan. she is now tang. everyone with some water can have a scoop.
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Post by special on Feb 6, 2012 22:18:40 GMT -5
What odds would you give Cabal for winning at this point? well i'd like to say one in four since that seems to be the number of factions that are still playing. but you folks have kind of gimped me (i was hoping to to get one in three). but since town seems to be focused on cabal as opposed to non dead i'd give me about a 2 percent chance. i'd give wolfies about zero just ain't enough of them and since that can't kill the vamp they are terribly fucked. i'd handicap town at about 20 percent. i mean maybe our wolfie takes out the nec on a wild swing. but they/he/she will probably swing safe for whatever reasaon. and since you and the other townies seem hell bent on poor odds choices i give this one to undead at this point. i mean follow your lynch choices, even you can do the math. town be fucked. undead win. This is where an outed wolf would come in handy. They'd be doing the killing, and if they died, we might be able to figure out who is the Vampire....or at least the wolves would. And they'd probably tell us when another was on the way to being lynched
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Post by peekercpa on Feb 6, 2012 22:30:04 GMT -5
well i'd like to say one in four since that seems to be the number of factions that are still playing. but you folks have kind of gimped me (i was hoping to to get one in three). but since town seems to be focused on cabal as opposed to non dead i'd give me about a 2 percent chance. i'd give wolfies about zero just ain't enough of them and since that can't kill the vamp they are terribly fucked. i'd handicap town at about 20 percent. i mean maybe our wolfie takes out the nec on a wild swing. but they/he/she will probably swing safe for whatever reasaon. and since you and the other townies seem hell bent on poor odds choices i give this one to undead at this point. i mean follow your lynch choices, even you can do the math. town be fucked. undead win. This is where an outed wolf would come in handy. They'd be doing the killing, and if they died, we might be able to figure out who is the Vampire....or at least the wolves would. And they'd probably tell us when another was on the way to being lynched well i already came across pretty strongly that i think gnarley is the vamp. since i blocked his ass the first two Days and then blocked you on N3. so unless the wolfies get a potential additional NK then he's the fucking vamp. are we back to the negotiation stage? cause i ain't blocking him if jan gets lynched. then you and your witchy folks can hope that he doesn't shoot straight.
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Post by special on Feb 6, 2012 22:32:27 GMT -5
This is where an outed wolf would come in handy. They'd be doing the killing, and if they died, we might be able to figure out who is the Vampire....or at least the wolves would. And they'd probably tell us when another was on the way to being lynched well i already came across pretty strongly that i think gnarley is the vamp. since i blocked his ass the first two Days and then blocked you on N3. so unless the wolfies get a potential additional NK then he's the fucking vamp. are we back to the negotiation stage? cause i ain't blocking him if jan gets lynched. then you and your witchy folks can hope that he doesn't shoot straight. there's no way to save Jan at this point. Block the Vampire and you just might save yourself.... Even though Town knows it needs the Cabal dead before it finishes off the other Scum. (depending on the number of witches left.) But who wants to risk that anyway?
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Post by CatInASuit on Feb 7, 2012 4:20:44 GMT -5
I have to vote for CatinaSuitUmm, thanks. Why?
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Post by CatInASuit on Feb 7, 2012 8:45:17 GMT -5
I wonder if Pleonast is going to have yet another meeting at EoD?
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Post by peekercpa on Feb 7, 2012 11:36:50 GMT -5
Even though Town knows it needs the Cabal dead before it finishes off the other Scum. (depending on the number of witches left.) But who wants to risk that anyway? <snipped> seems like town would rather get a faction that can kill them rather than one that can only block them. live and learn i guess.
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Post by special on Feb 7, 2012 12:16:34 GMT -5
Even though Town knows it needs the Cabal dead before it finishes off the other Scum. (depending on the number of witches left.) But who wants to risk that anyway? <snipped> seems like town would rather get a faction that can kill them rather than one that can only block them. live and learn i guess. Yeah, but not entirely. I remember a game where a known wolf was kept alive as Town hunted the Cabal. It would suck to lynch the last Wolf/Undead only to lose because there's still a Cabal alive. Besides if Witches still have a protection and an investigation (unless some of septimus guiri and and pollux were witches) its likely we'll have either more confirmed Town or one of the undead ID'd soon enough. And the witches should avoid investigating in the mason mess. I think that will sort itself out.
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Post by special on Feb 7, 2012 12:19:31 GMT -5
(unless some of septimus guiri scathach and pollux were witches)
That's how it should have read. Edited out the wrong word when I added Pollux. Technically we don't know his alignment yet despite septimus telling us he was wolf. But I really doubt septimus was lying.
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Merestil Haye
FGM
Grudge Keeper
[on:Slumming it in the Middle-Earth][of:In the halls of Manw
Posts: 1,077
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
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Post by Merestil Haye on Feb 7, 2012 13:18:23 GMT -5
[Yeah, but not entirely. I remember a game where a known wolf was kept alive as Town hunted the Cabal. It would suck to lynch the last Wolf/Undead only to lose because there's still a Cabal alive. Conspiracy 2. But, it was only necessary to hunt Cabal because two Witches were dead, and known to be dead. We shiuld be prioritising finding the Necromancer, which we need to do in the next two to three Days. If we don't we might well be overrun by zombies. (Currently, assuming one Vampire and one Necromancer, we have five Undead against sixteen live players. Assuming an average of two kills per Night plus a lynch, and no other incidents, we'll be down to 13v6 in Day 5, 10v7 in Day 6 and 7v8 at the Dawn of Day 7.)
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Post by Boozahol Squid, P.I. on Feb 7, 2012 14:27:30 GMT -5
When does it hit Night?
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Post by Pleonast on Feb 7, 2012 14:28:54 GMT -5
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Post by Pleonast on Feb 7, 2012 15:03:50 GMT -5
Day Four is over.
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