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Day Six
Feb 17, 2012 2:13:58 GMT -5
Post by gnarlycharlie on Feb 17, 2012 2:13:58 GMT -5
first of all,
Vote peeker
my results last Night were Bill is a Freemason and so was Suburban Plankton.
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Day Six
Feb 17, 2012 2:16:20 GMT -5
Post by septimus on Feb 17, 2012 2:16:20 GMT -5
For the first time, no corpse last Night was "profaned unspeakably" and I got two reports:
"Nanook was a Detective and Drain Bead was a Necromancer."
With Necromancer dead, Wolves decimated, and Cabal perhaps still recruiting, it seems clear what our priority should be:
Vote: peekercpa
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Day Six
Feb 17, 2012 4:57:05 GMT -5
Post by BillMc on Feb 17, 2012 4:57:05 GMT -5
CatinASuit - Investigated as Town, assumed potential Omega unless he claims Vigilante. Given CAIS claimed Scotsman - why would you be expecting him to reclaim Vigilante? As yesterday, I've no problem with lynching Peeker, tho the Cabal is no threat to town - town doesn't need them dead, and the cabal can't win while there are two witches. Ok, if we do lose a witch, then the cabal doesn become a threat. I can confirm a handshake from Gnarly. interesting that drain was very quick to mock Gnarly when he originally claimed a handshake from me few days ago - and that she wanted folk to re-shake with Gnarly multiple times -- that kinda suggests she knew something about the handshakes. I shook with hirkatbawa - not a mason
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Day Six
Feb 17, 2012 5:06:23 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Feb 17, 2012 5:06:23 GMT -5
Scotsman would be the perfect thing for a scum role to claim to try to avoid being lynched...because everyone is going to be wary of wasting a lynch if they take the risk on trying.
I don't think I believe his claim.
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Day Six
Feb 17, 2012 8:50:36 GMT -5
Post by peekercpa on Feb 17, 2012 8:50:36 GMT -5
well the cat's out of the bag so to speak. yeh, i blocked draino last Night. now whether her death or the block is the no zombie result i just get confused on that whole simultaneous resolution shit. it was apparant early on that no fucking way could i win this fucker so i wanted to play for second. hence, my willingness to go along with ed's suggestions. figured that would by me some shelf life. apparantly not enough. i still can block a NK and i am pretty sure who the vamp is but not so much our wolfie. at least i get to be town mvp at the end of the farcking game. little consolation as i exit stage right.
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Day Six
Feb 17, 2012 9:29:31 GMT -5
Post by CatInASuit on Feb 17, 2012 9:29:31 GMT -5
Ok, following on from last Night
14 live players
Town: Hoopy Frood - Freemason BillMc - Freemason Suburban Plankton - Freemason Boozahol Squid - Freemason gnarlycharlie - Freemason
Idle Thoughts - Witch Special Ed - Witch septimus - Coroner
peekercpa - Cabal
Untested Claimants CatInASuit - Claim Scotsman Sister Coyote - Claim Warlock Inner Stickler - Claim Warlock hirkatbawa (MIA) deon (MIA)
The Cabal may (or may not) have recruited from the Masons, a handshake toDay and toMorrow will show if anyone else has been recruited. If the Cabal can recruit every Night, then we could have 4 Cabal, peeker + 3 of the freemasons. But judging by the handshake results, I don't think that is the case.
However, as long as we have two witches, it's not a problem. Looking at the NKs, we know we have a Wolf and a Vampire. They will be in the bottom block of untested claimants.
Looking at this we know we have at least one Wolf and one Vampire left from the pool of five at the bottom.
For me, it's easy, seeing as two of the five are absent:
Vote: Sister Coyote Vote: Inner Stickler
However, the two absentees will still need to be killed seeing as one of them could be scum and we have no way to tell or confirm in any way.
If someone would like to handshake deon, it would be most useful.
I would hazard a guess that peekercpa has recruit tonight, but I think would rather take out one of the NKs instead.
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Day Six
Feb 17, 2012 11:09:59 GMT -5
Post by Suburban Plankton on Feb 17, 2012 11:09:59 GMT -5
It definitely seems that the Necromancer is no longer with us, which means that her Zombies died with her. As such, the Undead threat has been greatly diminished and no longer needs to be a priority.
We probably have 1-3 Wolves left, 1 Vampire, and 1-4 Cabalists. That leaves 6-11 Town.
Assuming Worst-Case-for-Town scenarios:
The Wolves need to kill 8 people to achieve parity, without losing another Wolf The Vampire needs to kill 10 people to achieve parity, without getting killed The Cabal need to kill 7 people to achieve a majority, at which point they can control the vote, without losing another Cabalist
Given all of the investigations, handshakes, and what-have-you so far, it seems that things are pretty well broken down at this point to:
Witches Coroner Masons/Cabalists Other
The Calalists are hiding amongst the Masons, and the Wolves and Undead are hiding in the "Other" group.
Today, it seems to make sense to lynch our known Cabalist. The best target Tomorrow will probably be a suspected Wolf or a suspected Cabalist, depend on how things play out overNight.
vote peeker
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Day Six
Feb 17, 2012 11:50:31 GMT -5
Post by Sister Coyote on Feb 17, 2012 11:50:31 GMT -5
If someone would like to handshake deon, it would be most useful. Why deon and not Hirka? Did hirka get handshook and I missed it?
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Day Six
Feb 17, 2012 11:52:58 GMT -5
Post by Høøpy Frøød on Feb 17, 2012 11:52:58 GMT -5
well the cat's out of the bag so to speak. yeh, i blocked draino last Night. now whether her death or the block is the no zombie result i just get confused on that whole simultaneous resolution shit. The fact that there was no zombie means that she was likely blocked. The game is not informed that the zombies are dusted until the Necro is revealed by Pleo, though they effectively are as soon as the Necro dies. (I don't think the rules are clear on what happens should a necro die under a witchdoctor enchantment, but that's beside the point here.) Since actions are resolved simultaneously, we should have seen a zombie pop up if she was able to complete her action successfully. (Though that zombie would immediately die and we wouldn't be informed until Pleo confirmed her death.) Otherwise, a zombie typically not appearing when the necro dies, reveals that the necro has likely died, which goes against the spirit of the whole delayed reveal thing.
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Day Six
Feb 17, 2012 11:54:05 GMT -5
Post by Høøpy Frøød on Feb 17, 2012 11:54:05 GMT -5
If someone would like to handshake deon, it would be most useful. Why deon and not Hirka? Did hirka get handshook and I missed it? Yes. You missed it twice even.
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Day Six
Feb 17, 2012 19:44:04 GMT -5
Post by peekercpa on Feb 17, 2012 19:44:04 GMT -5
Ok, following on from last Night 14 live players Town: Hoopy Frood - Freemason BillMc - Freemason Suburban Plankton - Freemason Boozahol Squid - Freemason gnarlycharlie - Freemason Idle Thoughts - Witch Special Ed - Witch septimus - Coroner peekercpa - Cabal Untested Claimants CatInASuit - Claim Scotsman Sister Coyote - Claim Warlock Inner Stickler - Claim Warlock hirkatbawa (MIA) deon (MIA) The Cabal may (or may not) have recruited from the Masons, a handshake toDay and toMorrow will show if anyone else has been recruited. If the Cabal can recruit every Night, then we could have 4 Cabal, peeker + 3 of the freemasons. But judging by the handshake results, I don't think that is the case. However, as long as we have two witches, it's not a problem. Looking at the NKs, we know we have a Wolf and a Vampire. They will be in the bottom block of untested claimants. Looking at this we know we have at least one Wolf and one Vampire left from the pool of five at the bottom. For me, it's easy, seeing as two of the five are absent: Vote: Sister Coyote [/color] Vote: Inner Stickler [/color] However, the two absentees will still need to be killed seeing as one of them could be scum and we have no way to tell or confirm in any way. If someone would like to handshake deon, it would be most useful. I would hazard a guess that peekercpa has recruit tonight, but I think would rather take out one of the NKs instead.[/quote] don't bother with logic. town wants to lynch the one person who can't hurt them at Night and that can potentially help them at Night. course they weren't too concerned about getting overrun by zombies so i guess it is in alignment with previous stances.
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Day Six
Feb 17, 2012 22:15:16 GMT -5
Post by Inner Stickler on Feb 17, 2012 22:15:16 GMT -5
And town appears to have dealt with the zombie threat admirably and, what, 4 wolves have been killed? All of the dead cabal have been recruited from town, it's not surprising that people what to eliminate the person they think is most likely causing the recruitment. Also, some of the votes you're getting are probably from wolves and the vampire trying to get town to focus on not them for a couple cycles.
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Day Six
Feb 18, 2012 10:16:07 GMT -5
Post by BillMc on Feb 18, 2012 10:16:07 GMT -5
We probably have 1-3 Wolves left, 1 Vampire, and 1-4 Cabalists. That leaves 6-11 Town. So we have 14 alive at present The Wolves need to kill 8 people to achieve parity, without losing another Wolf The Vampire needs to kill 10 people to achieve parity, without getting killed The Cabal need to kill 7 people to achieve a majority, at which point they can control the vote, without losing another Cabalist I agree with your analysis, except the Cabal doesn't appear to have a killing power - so the Cabal would need several mislynches and not lose anyone to the night kills, to even be in a position to control the lynch - but they still won't have a NK. It is extremely unlikely they could mislynch a witch, which means the cabal are relying on the wolves or vamp to kill one of the witches. If Drain was the necro - then the undead cannot win either. So it's a town v wolf play-off, with the cabal counting against the wolves win condition - so in a town v wolf playoff, with two witches alive, it benefits the town to keep the cabal alive. Unless the wolves/vamp kill the witches, then I think it is purely a mechanical case of lynching the other pool, and if that doesnt secure a town win, start going through the mason pool.
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Day Six
Feb 18, 2012 10:26:32 GMT -5
Post by BillMc on Feb 18, 2012 10:26:32 GMT -5
And town appears to have dealt with the zombie threat admirably and, what, 4 wolves have been killed? All of the dead cabal have been recruited from town, it's not surprising that people what to eliminate the person they think is most likely causing the recruitment. Also, some of the votes you're getting are probably from wolves and the vampire trying to get town to focus on not them for a couple cycles. Tha's an interesting underlined statement - Peeker claims to have blocked Drain, and Drain was killed at night. You either appear to be implying that Peeker is town, and/or that Drain was killed by the town vig. Given the lack of deaths, I find the rationale for having multiple warlocks hard to fathom - so I still think either Sisc or yourself is lying.
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Day Six
Feb 18, 2012 10:41:50 GMT -5
Post by Inner Stickler on Feb 18, 2012 10:41:50 GMT -5
Peeker has been positively histrionic on the subject of undead and yesterday seemed sure they were on the verge of winning the game. Now the necromancer is dead and all of her zombies are destroyed. Based on the kills we've seen, I feel comfortable believing the undead faction consists of a lone vampire. If that's not admirably well, then I think your standards are too high.
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Day Six
Feb 18, 2012 11:03:28 GMT -5
Post by special on Feb 18, 2012 11:03:28 GMT -5
We probably have 1-3 Wolves left, 1 Vampire, and 1-4 Cabalists. That leaves 6-11 Town. So we have 14 alive at present The Wolves need to kill 8 people to achieve parity, without losing another Wolf The Vampire needs to kill 10 people to achieve parity, without getting killed The Cabal need to kill 7 people to achieve a majority, at which point they can control the vote, without losing another Cabalist I agree with your analysis, except the Cabal doesn't appear to have a killing power - so the Cabal would need several mislynches and not lose anyone to the night kills, to even be in a position to control the lynch - but they still won't have a NK. It is extremely unlikely they could mislynch a witch, which means the cabal are relying on the wolves or vamp to kill one of the witches. If Drain was the necro - then the undead cannot win either. So it's a town v wolf play-off, with the cabal counting against the wolves win condition - so in a town v wolf playoff, with two witches alive, it benefits the town to keep the cabal alive. Unless the wolves/vamp kill the witches, then I think it is purely a mechanical case of lynching the other pool, and if that doesnt secure a town win, start going through the mason pool. Why do you assume that peeker still cannot recruit?
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Day Six
Feb 18, 2012 12:17:16 GMT -5
Post by septimus on Feb 18, 2012 12:17:16 GMT -5
Masons' actions on Day 4: Charlie investigated Suburban. Suburban investigated Hoopy. Hoopy investigated Boozy. Boozy investigated Charlie. All of these investigations were successful (came back "Is a Freemason"). This is all demonstrated by their posts in the Night 4 thread, for example: Both boozy and suburban came back as freemason when I shook with them. But what about Bill? He waited until Day 5 to report his result: Umm BillMC - you forgot to claim any results??? Sorry, I could have sworn I had attached my result. "Hoopy Frood is a Freemason." From Guiri's flip it appears recruitment rather than impersonation is in play - or possibly both. Which basically means that the mason handshakes don't hold any water. @ Hoopy - Did you get a report that Bill was Freemason, and if so why didn't you report it? Our Witches may not be immortal and we may find ourselves afraid to Lynch someone who is potentially the last Vampire or Wolf. I see this is an argument to Lynch a Vampire/Wolf now, while we still have two Witches, but I'm afraid the Cabal are the long-term threat. It would be nice to understand their secret power. @ Peeker - I'll unvote you if you post your true role PM.
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Day Six
Feb 19, 2012 2:20:31 GMT -5
Post by Høøpy Frøød on Feb 19, 2012 2:20:31 GMT -5
Masons' actions on Day 4: Charlie investigated Suburban. Suburban investigated Hoopy. Hoopy investigated Boozy. Boozy investigated Charlie. All of these investigations were successful (came back "Is a Freemason"). This is all demonstrated by their posts in the Night 4 thread, for example: Both boozy and suburban came back as freemason when I shook with them. But what about Bill? He waited until Day 5 to report his result: Sorry, I could have sworn I had attached my result. "Hoopy Frood is a Freemason." From Guiri's flip it appears recruitment rather than impersonation is in play - or possibly both. Which basically means that the mason handshakes don't hold any water. @ Hoopy - Did you get a report that Bill was Freemason, and if so why didn't you report it? [/quote] Yes. And I didn't report it because he wasn't part of the original agreement of who was shaking with who, because we weren't even sure he was definitely around. So I wasn't going to say anything until he did, with all the weirdness surrounding mason claims at the time. And I thought I confirmed his findings after he posted them, but looking back, apparently I didn't.
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Day Six
Feb 19, 2012 5:50:20 GMT -5
Post by septimus on Feb 19, 2012 5:50:20 GMT -5
Yes. And I didn't report it because he wasn't part of the original agreement of who was shaking with who, because we weren't even sure he was definitely around. So I wasn't going to say anything until he did, with all the weirdness surrounding mason claims at the time. And I thought I confirmed his findings after he posted them, but looking back, apparently I didn't. I must admit I'm very suspicious. What would be harmful about "BTW, Bill shook hands with me yesterDay. He's still a Mason."? Bill "forgets" to attach his results. You "thought you confirmed." Bill argues to keep Peeker alive, despite that Cabal is perhaps the only remaining serious threat. With Necromancer dead and Wolves severely decimated, the Cabal and its Freemason recruits are the only long-term obstacle to Town victory. Has anyone figured out exactly how the Cabal recruitment works? If there are more Cabalists hiding among our Masons, I think they're Hoopy and Bill. I ask the remaining Town Masons to handshake with them again today ... though I have some fear that may just turn them into Cabal Masons, too.
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Day Six
Feb 19, 2012 11:12:46 GMT -5
Post by BillMc on Feb 19, 2012 11:12:46 GMT -5
Why do you assume that peeker still cannot recruit? Where did I make that assumption? It's been previously suggested that the cabal recruited within the mason pool - which based on the dead reveals is a reasonable assumption. Whether it has been Peeker doing those recruitments is unknown - or do the witches have more information on this than they have shared with the rest of town? It also seems reasonable that the recruitment pool is limited to the masons - otherwise the cabal could end up unstoppable if they recruited a vig, witch, detective for example. Bill argues to keep Peeker alive, despite that Cabal is perhaps the only remaining serious threat. With Necromancer dead and Wolves severely decimated, the Cabal and its Freemason recruits are the only long-term obstacle to Town victory. Has anyone figured out exactly how the Cabal recruitment works? I am not arguing to keep Peeker alive - I am stating the fact (as stated in the rules) that while there are two witches alive, the cabal is not a threat to town, and the town does not need the cabal dead to win.
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Day Six
Feb 19, 2012 20:41:14 GMT -5
Post by special on Feb 19, 2012 20:41:14 GMT -5
Here are my Mason notes:
These are rough notes, not polished for public consumption.
Can someone do a vote analysis? Maybe with colors for known town, wolves, cabal, recruited Cabal and claimed Masons?
Peeker: claimed Day 1 post 185 Day 1: Ed not a mason. Day 2: Silver Jan is a mason Day 3 post 95, confirms Suburban and guiri During Night 3, peeker belatedly claims that he investigated Boozy during Day 2, despite refusing to comment on it before. He also claims that Silver Jan is not a mason after others had.
Silver Jan: claimed Night 1 post 17 (likely Day 3 recruit) Day 1: Ed is not a mason. Night 2 post 7, peeker is not a mason. (could she have gotten he message that she wasn’t and then had another message telling her she was recruited? Night 2 post 14: peeker is a mason now. Day 2 guiri is a mason (D3 post 57)
JustBeingGinger: claimed N1 post 19 Day 1: Septimus is not a mason Killed Night 1
Guiri: (likely Day 2 or 3 recruit) Investigated as Town by witches Night 1 Day 3 post 60, makes the claim that perhaps Cabal have the imitation power again. Day 2: Jan is a mason Day 3 post 137, guiri unvotes Bill and votes Peeker and Jan. (?? ??) Day 3 post 153, guiri proposes a handshaking pattern which places him between Bill (absent at the time) and Suburban. Guiri later proposes a hb method with himself in the middle. Perhaps the newest recruit gets the freemason investigation. CIAS proposes a circle methid that seemed to be accepted and that left out Bill.
Boozahol squid handshakes peekercpa peekercpa handshakes suburban plankton Suburban Plankton handshakes Silver Jan Silver Jan handshakes gnarlycharlie gnarlycharlie handshakes guiri guiri handshakes boozahol squid
Night 3 post 2 confirms Suburban and Boozy (he investigated Boozy, and suburban investigated him). After Hoopy claimed, guiri confirmed.
BillMc: claimed Night 2 post 22 Night 2: peeker is not a mason
Suburban Plankton (unlikely recruit before Day 3): claimed day 3 post 8 D2 post 35 wonders why claimed masons did not investigate peeker. D1: peeker is a mason Day 2: failed to investigate Day 3 post 8 defends peeker and Jan and votes Bill (could he be another recruit?) guiri immediately agrees however, so guiri is more likely. Day 3 post 124: conclusion Jan, guiri and Suburban must all be lying (interesting, no?) Discussion continued with Pollux Oil in Day 3 post 130 about the 2 groups. One was “Peeker, Jan, guiri, and Suburban” Night 3 post 3, confirms he investigated guiri who is mason Day 4 post 10 pushes for a Jan lynch ahead of a peeker lynch. Night 4: Hoopy and gnarly are Masons
Boozahol Squid: claimed Day 3 post 33 (unlikely recruit before Day 3) D2 peeker is not a mason (announced day 3) Night 3 post 8. Guiri is a Mason, Silver Jan is not.
Gnarlycharlie: claimed Day 3 post 59 D1: no investigation D2: peeker is not a mason Day 3: Silver Jan was anot a mason. Claims Bill investigated him (later confirmed by Bill)
Hoopy Frood : claimed Night 3 post 13. Day 1: peeker is a mason Day 2: Jan is a mason D3: guiri is a mason. Day 4: Boozy and Suburban are Masons
Day 4 results:
Hoopy--> Boozy (Yes, Confirmed) Suburban --> Hoopy (Yes, Confirmed) Gnarly --> Suburban (Yes, Confirmed) (Gnarly leaves out Boozy initially, later confirms him) Boozy --> gnarly (Yes, Confirmed)
Bill remains mum, during day 5 claims Bill --> Hoopy (Yes, never confirmed??) Peeker has already claimed cabal.
Day 5 results: No Mason claimed anything during Night 5 During Day 6, after being asked: Hoopy and Bill claim to have investigate hirka who is not a mason Gnarly claims that Bill and Suburban are masons
My paranoid theory: Masons become Cabal when they attempt to shake with a Cabal. Thereby making all of our Masons Cabal at this point. And maybe they all just forgot they were supposed to claim investigation results? It also explains why they seem to be pushing a search for vampires.
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Day Six
Feb 19, 2012 23:01:27 GMT -5
Post by Inner Stickler on Feb 19, 2012 23:01:27 GMT -5
JustBeingGinger claimed N1 that she shook with Peeker and that they were mason buddies. If masons become cabal upon handshaking cabal, she should have flipped cabal (recruited from town).
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Day Six
Feb 19, 2012 23:24:37 GMT -5
Post by special on Feb 19, 2012 23:24:37 GMT -5
JustBeingGinger claimed N1 that she shook with Peeker and that they were mason buddies. If masons become cabal upon handshaking cabal, she should have flipped cabal (recruited from town). No, she claimed she shook with septimus and that he wasn't am mason.
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Day Six
Feb 19, 2012 23:38:45 GMT -5
Post by Inner Stickler on Feb 19, 2012 23:38:45 GMT -5
So when she said N1 that peeker was a mason with her, that was what? A guess? Did she ask her magic 8-ball?
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Day Six
Feb 20, 2012 0:07:30 GMT -5
Post by special on Feb 20, 2012 0:07:30 GMT -5
So when she said N1 that peeker was a mason with her, that was what? A guess? Did she ask her magic 8-ball? Night 1, post 19 I will also state that Septimus is NOT a mason. I am also a Mason, with Peeker. Sorry for voting for you! so to verify this Peeker, you know what you need to do.
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Day Six
Feb 20, 2012 0:12:01 GMT -5
Post by special on Feb 20, 2012 0:12:01 GMT -5
Can all of the remaining claimed masons please post your request and results for each Day?
Like:
Day 1, I investigated Ed Night 1, I was told Ed was not a mason, and peeker was a mason Day 2, etc...
Pretty please? You can just copy and paste your PMs to the mod if you'd like.
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Day Six
Feb 20, 2012 0:55:13 GMT -5
Post by Inner Stickler on Feb 20, 2012 0:55:13 GMT -5
So she did handshake with Peeker. I'm glad you agree with me.
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Day Six
Feb 20, 2012 3:16:47 GMT -5
Post by septimus on Feb 20, 2012 3:16:47 GMT -5
Can someone do a vote analysis? Maybe with colors for known town, wolves, cabal, recruited Cabal and claimed Masons? I may try, though the most obvious factoid may stand out at once: Neither Boozy nor Bill is voting Peeker right now (perhaps preferring No Lynch to the loss of their teammate ). Peeker is the only Lynch candidate and has only 7 votes of 7 needed. More votes, please. Bill? Boozy? CatInASuit? I promised Peeker I'd Unvote if he posted his true role PM, but he's procrastinated long enough to concoct a plausible lie. If he does show up with a PM, perhaps I should let our Witches serve as umpires as to its truth.
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Day Six
Feb 20, 2012 4:44:02 GMT -5
Post by CatInASuit on Feb 20, 2012 4:44:02 GMT -5
Ok, first off, lets make sure someone gets lynched. Vote: peekercpa although there are others I would prefer to be lynched. It definitely seems that the Necromancer is no longer with us, which means that her Zombies died with her. As such, the Undead threat has been greatly diminished and no longer needs to be a priority. We probably have 1-3 Wolves left, 1 Vampire, and 1-4 Cabalists. That leaves 6-11 Town. Assuming Worst-Case-for-Town scenarios: The Wolves need to kill 8 people to achieve parity, without losing another Wolf The Vampire needs to kill 10 people to achieve parity, without getting killed The Cabal need to kill 7 people to achieve a majority, at which point they can control the vote, without losing another Cabalist This is both accurate and horribly wrong at the same time. For example, the wolves do not need to kill 8 people, they need 8 people killed by any means. Assuming worst case of 14 players: 6 town , 3 wolves, 1 undead and 4 cabal Day 6: - Lynch Cabal: 6 town, 3 wolves, 1 Undead, 3 Cabal Night 6 - two town killed: 4 Town, 3 wolves, 1 Undead, 3 Cabal Day 7, Lynch Wolf: 4 Town, 2 Wolves, 1 Undead, 3 Cabal Night 7 - two town killed: 2 Town, 2 Wolves, 1 Undead, 3 Cabal Day 8 - Lynch Wolf: 2 Town, 1 Wolf,1 Undead, 3 Cabal Night 8 - two town killed: 1 Town, 1 Wolf, 1 Undead, 3 Cabal Night 8 assumes I get hit then and not before. And at that point we, the town, are pretty much FUBAR'd. That's your worst case scenario. Running the same again with a vampire lynch today gives and assuming a Cabal recruit each Night peekercpa is alive... Day 6: - Lynch Vampire: 6 town, 3 wolves, 3 Cabal Night 6 - one town killed: 5 Town, 3 wolves, 4 Cabal Day 7, Lynch peekercpa: 5 Town, 3 Wolves, 3 Cabal Night 7 - one town killed: 4 Town, 3 Wolves, 3 Cabal Day 8 - Lynch Wolf: 4 Town, 2 Wolves, 3 Cabal Night 8 - one town killed: 3 Town, 2 Wolves, 3 Cabal At that point, the town still has a chance assuming the worst case scenario. Mitigating Factors: A Freemason circle handshake today should confirm how many toDay are Freemason and how many are Cabal Recruits. This will raise the number of town and lower the number of Cabal accordingly. Two players are absent, worst case they are both town, which makes the option of killing peekercpa toDay look really bad. I would be surprised if one of them wasn't a vicar anyway. Initial setup guess: 1 Cabal Recruiter 2 undead 6 Wolves 8 Freemasons 8 Town Average Guess given the setup guess above with a vampire lynch, no Cabal recruits: Day 6: - Lynch Vampire: 10 town, 2 wolves, 1 Cabal Night 6 - one town killed: 9 Town, 2 wolves, 2 Cabal Day 7, Lynch peekercpa: 9 Town, 2 Wolves, 1 Cabal Night 7 - one town killed: 8 Town, 2 Wolves, 1 Cabal Day 8 - Lynch Wolf: 8 Town, 1 Wolves, 1 Cabal Night 8 - one town killed: 7 Town, 1 Wolves, 1 Cabal There should be enough confirmed at that point to wrap the game up Average Guess given the setup guess above with a Cabal Lynch: Day 6: - Lynch Cabal: 10 town, 2 wolves, 1 Undead Night 6 - two town killed: 8 Town, 2 wolves, 1 Undead Day 7, Lynch Wolf: 8 Town, 1 Wolf, 1 Undead Night 7 - two town killed: 6 Town, 1 Wolf, 1 Undead By that point, there should be enough confirmed to complete the game. So wrapping up: if we are not in a worst case scenario, we should win the game, as long as we lynch scum and absent some really poor play from the Town. If we are in a worst case scenario, we want to lynch the Vampire toDay. But then...when did logic ever come into these games
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Day Six
Feb 20, 2012 4:53:21 GMT -5
Post by septimus on Feb 20, 2012 4:53:21 GMT -5
If we are in a worst case scenario, we want to lynch the Vampire toDay. I'll study your post toNight, but will comment now that I'd be happy to Lynch the Vampire if we are confident we know who he/she is. BTW, with the absolute-majority requirement and absentees not voting, it may soon be necessary to Lynch the absentees or run the risk that residual Town will no longer able to Lynch anyone at all.
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