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Post by dizzymrslizzy on May 14, 2012 21:36:14 GMT -5
There is no difference in how I might act were I Town or Scum. Therefore, what you've uncovered is a null tell. I explained in one of my last posts why while your helpfulness is a Null Tell, my radar is up on you and Gad. I don't understand why you wouldn't be good Night 1 targets. It seems like the kills last night were half random instead of taking out the 'helpful' players. That said, like Lax said I also genuinely 'like' both of us, so while I'm cautiously watching you both, I have some sense of trust as well.
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Post by dizzymrslizzy on May 14, 2012 21:42:48 GMT -5
Damn, that last sentence in Post #60 should be:
'That said, like Lax said I also genuinely 'like' both of YOU
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Post by special on May 14, 2012 21:43:59 GMT -5
There is no difference in how I might act were I Town or Scum. Therefore, what you've uncovered is a null tell. I explained in one of my last posts why while your helpfulness is a Null Tell, my radar is up on you and Gad. I don't understand why you wouldn't be good Night 1 targets. It seems like the kills last night were half random instead of taking out the 'helpful' players. That said, like Lax said I also genuinely 'like' both of us, so while I'm cautiously watching you both, I have some sense of trust as well. Many reasons why I might not be targeted. 1. I could be perceived as "lynchable." So the Scum want to keep me around to get lynched. Often times we do "lynch the loud" and I can be loud. 2. I've already led the lynch of one Town player. Scum might be counting on me to lead more bad lynches. Historically I'm wrong way more often than I'm right. 3. Scum fear I might be protected. I could be a doctor or have earned the trust of a doctor. 4. BillMc is just that good. Really.
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Post by lianne on May 14, 2012 21:48:48 GMT -5
Yes, this. BUT, maybe they are trying to come off as super helpful so as to throw us townies (and newbies) off track. Your paranoia is commendable. However, let's consider the options: 1. Special Ed is Scum: He's trying to appear super helpful to the new players so they won't suspect him. 2. Special Ed is Town: He's appearing helpful because he's actually trying to help the newer players find Scum. ~~~~~~~~~~~ What the case amounts to is confirmation bias. You assume I'm Scum, and then my actions fit into that preconceived notion. You haven't uncovered evidence that indicates that I'm Scum, you've only uncovered evidence that doesn't prove I'm Town. And the distinction is quite important. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ There is no difference in how I might act were I Town or Scum. Therefore, what you've uncovered is a null tell. My reasoning was not because of your helpfulness (the above quote is incorrectly attributed to me if you look back). It was the fact that you started not only the first (successful) bandwagon but are now starting a 2nd one...coupled with the fact that Scum did not kill you off. You have not addressed that at all in your answer.
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Post by special on May 14, 2012 21:50:49 GMT -5
Your paranoia is commendable. However, let's consider the options: 1. Special Ed is Scum: He's trying to appear super helpful to the new players so they won't suspect him. 2. Special Ed is Town: He's appearing helpful because he's actually trying to help the newer players find Scum. ~~~~~~~~~~~ What the case amounts to is confirmation bias. You assume I'm Scum, and then my actions fit into that preconceived notion. You haven't uncovered evidence that indicates that I'm Scum, you've only uncovered evidence that doesn't prove I'm Town. And the distinction is quite important. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ There is no difference in how I might act were I Town or Scum. Therefore, what you've uncovered is a null tell. My reasoning was not because of your helpfulness (the above quote is incorrectly attributed to me if you look back). It was the fact that you started not only the first (successful) bandwagon but are now starting a 2nd one...coupled with the fact that Scum did not kill you off. You have not addressed that at all in your answer. See my list of reasons why Scum might not have killed me. Also, I can't help it if people like my arguments or come to them of their own volition. I'm casting early votes. I'm not starting bandwagons. Other people are turning them into bandwagons.
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Post by lianne on May 14, 2012 21:52:54 GMT -5
Sorry yes our posts crossed so you had answered part of that by the time I posted.
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Meeko
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Post by Meeko on May 14, 2012 21:57:57 GMT -5
Guys it seems odd to me that 14 people all vote for one person, and there are 15 scum. Hypothetically if one doesn't vote or is inactive, then shouldn't we start with that lynch as to avoid a second mislynching? That's what I will be basing my votes on.
1. Why would 14 people all vote for one person. Even in smaller games, In my experience, vote leaders usually end up with approximately >6 or so votes on them, in the beginning. The counter to this, is then "But 14 doesn't equal 6". True, but 60 players is three times the average number of players at start. Or at least, in the games that I am using as my sample to arrive at my >6 figure above. It doesn't seem odd to me that 14 players would all vote for one player. I can't make a read on this portion.
2. ""And there are 15 scum."" This seems at once to be the PIS that it looks like. But then, I start thinking. I'm a dangerous man when I start thinking. Yes, 15 is 1/4th of 60. It would be a nice number of scum. .... Too Nice. I don't think we have exactly 15 scum [Or that we started with 15 scum] in this game. Why? Because this game had a few late comers, and a few people who wanted to play, but were late to sign up. 15 might have been the scum number "on paper", but I think the number changed right before game started. I don't think the number could be that cut and dry compared to the 60 we started with. If indeed we even started with 60. I think you can't make a read on laxrules guessing at a back of the envelope figure. So far I'm 0 for 2 on making a read on this post.
3. Hypothetically if one doesn't vote or is inactive, then shouldn't we start with that lynch as to avoid a second mislynching? Ok. Wow. I think I need to read this half a dozen more times to understand it. If the question is "Shouldn't we vote for the 15th scum who didn't get on the bandwagon with the other 14?" ..... If that's the question, then I can take this third pitch and knock it out of the park, walk off grand slam. Laxrules: I'm curious. How exactly can we start a lynch on the 15th scum? I'm not sure who the 15th scum is. I'm not sure who the 1st through the 14th scum is. How exactly do you plan to lynch the 15th scum? I think you might have a case here. You might have a case here. Feel free to elaborate your plan, because I'm not certain I follow it, or can follow it... for that matter.
You say you will be basing your votes on this strategy. I'm still not sure it is one. So for me, at this point, until otherwise, it is justification to vote for anyone you like. If it is a good plan that town should follow, there should be more information here. If there isn't then I'm not too interested in your own tea leaf reading. But ok. Assume for the time being, that I understand your post perfectly, and that I want to vote for the same person you are voting for. Oh, you are voting for supermel? For reasons that might be self incriminating? Yeah, I'm going to need elaboration on this too. Can you please provide examples of what supermel did to earn your vote? Until then...... Vote: Laxrules The scales just tip a tad too much on the PIS side than Noob or English as second language side for me. It's enough for me to place an early vote.
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Meeko
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Post by Meeko on May 14, 2012 22:06:57 GMT -5
4. BillMc is just that good. Really. I can't help but read this as some kind of twisted life insurance pitch. Most insurance plans only ask 3 health questions. We will only ask you one. NotBillMc Causality and Life. Protecting those that aren't BillMc from the nightkill since Day 0. But seriously, Bill does pick up on things that other people miss. I wonder if we can glean something on the ratio of Older to Newer scum based on the Nightkills. Bill and Sis both going out is too perfect. The coaching here can't exist without a certain level of Older players being scum.
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Post by Meeko on May 14, 2012 22:12:57 GMT -5
NETA : And the amount of PIS that francesca had (or lack thereof) leads me to think that scum have a LOT of coaching. Either a strong Older player ratio in the scum mix, or just a single strong older player*.
*In short, we know it's not me.
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Post by Rich Beckman on May 14, 2012 22:17:03 GMT -5
What's happened to me?!?!? Just a few hours ago I was of the opinion that everyone here was excessively paranoid; but with the dawning of Day Two, suddenly everyone's nit picking is making sense to me!
Good grief, did francescaj get killed because of that one little comment concerning detectives? And she WAS?!?!
I am going to have to read more carefully.
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Post by Rich Beckman on May 14, 2012 22:24:54 GMT -5
Guys it seems odd to me that 14 people all vote for one person, and there are 15 scum. Hypothetically if one doesn't vote or is inactive, then shouldn't we start with that lynch as to avoid a second mislynching? That's what I will be basing my votes on.
2. ""And there are 15 scum."" This seems at once to be the PIS that it looks like. But then, I start thinking. I'm a dangerous man when I start thinking. Yes, 15 is 1/4th of 60. It would be a nice number of scum. .... Too Nice. I don't think we have exactly 15 scum [Or that we started with 15 scum] in this game. Why? Because this game had a few late comers, and a few people who wanted to play, but were late to sign up. 15 might have been the scum number "on paper", but I think the number changed right before game started. I don't think the number could be that cut and dry compared to the 60 we started with. If indeed we even started with 60. I think you can't make a read on laxrules guessing at a back of the envelope figure. So far I'm 0 for 2 on making a read on this post.
Until then...... Vote: Laxrules [/color] The scales just tip a tad too much on the PIS side than Noob or English as second language side for me. It's enough for me to place an early vote. [/quote] So he said 15 scum, but you do not believe there are 15 scum and yet you call PIS.
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Post by Rich Beckman on May 14, 2012 22:30:27 GMT -5
NETA : And the amount of PIS that francesca had (or lack thereof) leads me to think that scum have a LOT of coaching. Either a strong Older player ratio in the scum mix, or just a single strong older player*. *In short, we know it's not me. We do? I think the opening act between you, Pleonast, and Gadarene leaves more than me wondering which of the three, if not all three, are scum.
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Post by crys on May 14, 2012 23:05:42 GMT -5
NETA : And the amount of PIS that francesca had (or lack thereof) leads me to think that scum have a LOT of coaching. Either a strong Older player ratio in the scum mix, or just a single strong older player*. *In short, we know it's not me. We do? I think the opening act between you, Pleonast, and Gadarene leaves more than me wondering which of the three, if not all three, are scum. I would agree with Meeko in gleaning the fact there are some seasoned players on the scum team. I first thought that Meeko would be scum because he was waaaay aggressive with Pleonast. Now I'm not so sure. From everything I have read is that scum's job is to blend in with the rest of the town. Standing out the way Meeko and Pleonast did isn't the way to do that. However there are many ways to play and employ strategy hoping to lull all of us noobs into a false sense of security. My brain keeps coming back to Gadarene. It's not really something I can just put my finger on and say "That is the reason why." However I do think that maybe someone else that is scum is active on the night boards kind of monitoring them. I just find it funny that I posted my suspicions about Gadarene not being around and he just magically appeared a short time later. I am not ready to make a vote, but I am really paying attention. Also Gadarene brings up past games with Special Mr Ed and how he hopes they are on the same team, but it doesn't really come across as genuine to me. Is one, both, or either of them scum. I don't really know, but I am sure as hell paying attention.
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Post by jmj697mn on May 14, 2012 23:05:43 GMT -5
Your paranoia is commendable. Thank you. This game makes me incredibly paranoid, which I believe is a good thing. There is no difference in how I might act were I Town or Scum. Therefore, what you've uncovered is a null tell. Yes, I have uncovered nothing. Also, my apologies to dizzymrslizzy and lianne. I mixed up the quote in one of my prior posts. I really spend a ridiculous amount of time trying to work the quote boxes when I post.
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Post by cassipietz on May 14, 2012 23:18:42 GMT -5
vote Mr Special Ed
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Post by lianne on May 14, 2012 23:25:07 GMT -5
I really should go to bed but I was just wondering if anyone had spotted that francescaj might be the detective and found this... There are detectives in this thing? Wow, lucky them! But then again, it sounds like a tough role. +1 PIS leakage OK that's more than enough for me (with my earlier posts) Vote: SpecialEd
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Meeko
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Post by Meeko on May 15, 2012 0:07:22 GMT -5
What's happened to me?!?!? Just a few hours ago I was of the opinion that everyone here was excessively paranoid; but with the dawning of Day Two, suddenly everyone's nit picking is making sense to me! Good grief, did francescaj get killed because of that one little comment concerning detectives? And she WAS?!?! I am going to have to read more carefully. You just found your new addiction. That's what happened to you. It's ok, you aren't addicted until your third game. There's still time. ;D
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Meeko
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Post by Meeko on May 15, 2012 0:26:23 GMT -5
Your paranoia is commendable. Wait. Wait Wait. Ed is complimenting someone on their paranoia?! This certainly can't be the same Ed I've played with.
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Colby11
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Post by Colby11 on May 15, 2012 0:46:31 GMT -5
I am going to assume that scum has at least 2 kills, and we have at least 1 vigilante.
I agree that an older player most likely is on the scum team, because none of the newer players would know that Bill is an excellent scum hunter.
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Post by Colby11 on May 15, 2012 0:51:32 GMT -5
I will also ask that if you are a detective and have found scum, let us know about halfway through toDay. That is my advice.
Meanwhile, we have too many people... This is the most number of people that are in one game for me.
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Meeko
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Post by Meeko on May 15, 2012 0:56:48 GMT -5
2. ""And there are 15 scum."" This seems at once to be the PIS that it looks like. But then, I start thinking. I'm a dangerous man when I start thinking. Yes, 15 is 1/4th of 60. It would be a nice number of scum. .... Too Nice. I don't think we have exactly 15 scum [Or that we started with 15 scum] in this game. Why? Because this game had a few late comers, and a few people who wanted to play, but were late to sign up. 15 might have been the scum number "on paper", but I think the number changed right before game started. I don't think the number could be that cut and dry compared to the 60 we started with. If indeed we even started with 60. I think you can't make a read on laxrules guessing at a back of the envelope figure. So far I'm 0 for 2 on making a read on this post. So he said 15 scum, but you do not believe there are 15 scum and yet you call PIS. The next time you snip and smudge, make sure you snip out the part where I say that "I'm 0 for 2 on making a read on this post". I believe the PIS to be in the voting rationale that Laxrules posted. I said as much in Number 3, and in the summary before my vote. Laxrules' rationale doesn't make any sense to me, and I think that any other townie would conclude the same. Is there a reason why you snipped out 3 and my Vote Summary?
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Post by Silver Jan on May 15, 2012 1:01:06 GMT -5
Yes Meeko, you are confusing ;D
4 Night kills, this game won't last too long if this continues so could there be one off kills somewhere? If I remember correctly, weren't there 2 roles that we weren't told about?
I agree that there is most likely an older player on the scum side with the deaths of Sis C and BillMc and a detective, Francescaj. Hopefully with a game this size there will be more than one detective.
Whoever killed LightFoot, well done. Probably an older player that's a Vig and could have picked her because of her one off vote on Michelehunter. What I don't understand are the votes on Michele now, would LightFoot really bus a fellow scum on D1. It is possible I know but why would she do it? To give Michele Town cred on D2? LightFoot couldn't have known she would be killed, in fact she could have felt quite safe at Night because she was scum. It would be different if there had been a bandwagon on Michele on D1 and she was up for a lynch, so I really can't see any motivation on LightFoots part for bussing a fellow scum that early on.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on May 15, 2012 1:02:24 GMT -5
Vote Count: michelehunter - 3 votes (Mr Special Ed, jmj697mn, Mahaloth) Special Ed - 2 votes (cassiepietz, lianne) Supermel - 1 vote (Laxrules) Laxrules - 1 vote (Meeko)
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Post by Meeko on May 15, 2012 1:03:35 GMT -5
The fact that we lost Francesca, makes me wonder if we have no Older player Doctors.
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Post by Colby11 on May 15, 2012 1:43:56 GMT -5
Vote: Vote laxrules
I disagree with her "analysis" that she did in Night 1, hence my vote... And I can tell you that I am town.
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Post by Colby11 on May 15, 2012 1:46:30 GMT -5
Well that didn't work..
Vote Laxrules
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Post by Silver Jan on May 15, 2012 1:54:14 GMT -5
[/color] I disagree with her "analysis" that she did in Night 1, hence my vote... And I can tell you that I am town.[/quote] Yeah, yeah, I wonder if LightFoot said she was Town too?
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Post by Idle Thoughts on May 15, 2012 2:29:41 GMT -5
Vote Count: michelehunter - 3 votes (Mr Special Ed, jmj697mn, Mahaloth) Special Ed - 2 votes (cassiepietz, lianne) Laxrules - 2 votes (Meeko, colby11) Supermel - 1 vote (Laxrules)
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Post by septimus on May 15, 2012 2:56:34 GMT -5
My working hypothesis is that there are 2 Vigs and 3 Scum kills (and Night 1 had a collision between two Killers or a Killer and a Doctor). The big difference with "ordinary" Mafia is that Lynchings will occur at half (or less) the normal rate relative to total kills. Exactly what that means, I don't know beyond: - The roles of Doc and Detective (and Vig) are very important. (Don't relax just because there are probably other Docs and Detectives to pick up the load.)
- With only half the usual Lynch rate, each Lynch becomes more important.
Pleo and Meeko were both top Lynch candidates yesterDay. If either was Scum, then the vote record would offer good clues, but I'm leaning Town on both. On the other hand, LightFoot asked for a vote count shortly before EOD. Was that just fluff, or was there a worry a Scum-buddy might get lynched? I think dizzymrslizzy and Gadarene are both Town. I'm not quite as certain of Special Ed but the fact that he was the one who called attention to francescaj's detective-tell would seem to be a point in his favor. Kudos to the Vig who knocked off Scum LightFoot ! She sure had me fooled, with very helpful pro-Town posts. It's after-the-fact, of course, but here are back-to-back posts which maybe should have tipped us off: The bear kept eating my preview. Disregard links above and try these Can people at least comment on the case against starirain? you started it The other two that hold water for me are: for cassipietz and for michelehunter ( but that's just my take) Notice the fine-tuning here, with "and I agree" disappearing. Such indecision in one's own views is a Scum tell. She suspects cassipietz and michelehunter, according to this post. At least one of those is likely to be a bus, IMO, and I would happily vote michelehunter for this and other reasons, but a steaming-hot bandwagon this early will mean the Day is wasted. Another post by LightFoot that might have clues (but I can't decode them) is: ... Using my glasses it would seem meeko is more likely the Scum – if either one of them is. Now the two of them are playing ping pong with the lynch lead and very little is going on with the other names on the list of voted players. Digging deeper into that pile will give us more intel for future Days. If pleo is lying, we’ll catch him. If he’s telling the truth, we don’t want him dead this Day.... ~~~~~~~~~~~~ I prepared a table of yesterDay's voting, but didn't format it properly. I'll append it here in case someone else wants to format it. (I wanted to put it in a "Spoiler" box to be less distracting, but don't know how to do that on this board.) GnarlyCharlie (1) - guiri (9-243)
Pleonast (7) - CatInASuit (10), BillMC (13), Meeko (14), cassipietz (107), michelehunter (126), jmj697mn (142-308), dizzymrslizzy (266-364), francescaj (329), jlrinmke (675?)
Meeko (4) - Inner Stickler (28), Pleonast (35-338), Silver Jan (151-330), Laurie Rn (199-669), amykb (203), septimus (206-325), crys (228), annetastic (240)
dizzymrslizzy (7) - Suburban Plankton (65), wombat99 (198), Silver Jan (330), Paranoia (404), cathi (581), starrirain (596), LadyRogue (677)
guiri (1) - dizzymrslizzy (77-266), Susan K Murphy (150)
starrirain (14) - Special Ed (97), colby11 (109), Gadarene (175), septimus (325), Pleonast (560), mchlle71 (579), dizzymrslizzy (599), lianne (604), richbeckman (624), supermel (648), jm697mn (650), annem (651),ascime (658), Laurie Rn (669)
Suburban Plankton (2) - mahaloth (104), texcat (475)
cassipietz (1) - kagemoto (122), texcat (140-152)
wombat99 (0) - septimus (136-206)
jm697mn (0) - texcat (152-316)
Special Ed (1) - oldred (154)
texcat (1) - guiri (243), jmj697mn (308-650)
annetastic (1) - allyjayne (244)
michellehunter (1) - LightFoot (296)
CatInASuit (0) - Pleonast (338-560)
lauriern (1) - Hal Briston (361)
Gadarene (1) - jerelijah (448)
septimus (0) - richbeckman (471-624)
oldred (1) - phoenixphyre (583)
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Post by annetastic on May 15, 2012 5:35:05 GMT -5
Prob a stupid NooB question and will put me under fire but I need to know....
Have I just not got the gist of the game or am I missing something here ... how did a scum get lynched, I thought it was scum who operated at night and knew who was on their 'team' so why did they lynch one of their own ?
Confused.com
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