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Post by Hal Briston on Jun 4, 2012 13:51:09 GMT -5
Depends on how scum wants to play it.
Your confirmation gives them one less spot in which to hide, which is bad for them. Likewise, we know your opinions and suspicions (while not necessarily correct) are coming from a town-based point-of-view.
But like you said, you're vanilla -- on paper, you're not nearly as big a threat as doctors and detectives. All things being equal, scum would try and eliminate all town power roles first before moving on to vanillas. However, this is Mafia, and all things are never equal. You're always trying to outguess the other team, so you never know what they might try.
Bottom line, just leave a clear record of your suspicions. If the scum get'cha one night, well, you still win if town ultimately wins.
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Post by wombat99 on Jun 4, 2012 13:54:52 GMT -5
That's lazy-player thinking. While investigations are very helpful, if we need them to win, we're probably screwed anyway. Vote records and discussions are the only reliable ways to catch scum. And we're only in Day Five of a huge game. It's still early. I see your point but you're saying you don't consider Detective investigations a reliable way to catch scum? Is it because you cannot trust a claimed Detective therefore their investigations cannot be trusted? And you did just claim Detective, right?
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Post by supermel on Jun 4, 2012 14:01:47 GMT -5
my track record on here is NOT good- i am so far a terrible town but am trying. So far my instincts have not been right on-- i am going to go back and see where i was swayed wrong each time and see if i can see a pattern.
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Post by Pleonast on Jun 4, 2012 14:12:21 GMT -5
That's lazy-player thinking. While investigations are very helpful, if we need them to win, we're probably screwed anyway. Vote records and discussions are the only reliable ways to catch scum. And we're only in Day Five of a huge game. It's still early. I see your point but you're saying you don't consider Detective investigations a reliable way to catch scum? Is it because you cannot trust a claimed Detective therefore their investigations cannot be trusted? And you did just claim Detective, right? You can't depend on Detectives' investigations because we're going to die. And then you'll have to figure out who's scum without our investigations. So don't rely on us; do the hard work of looking for scum motivations in posts now.
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Post by michelehunter on Jun 4, 2012 14:25:03 GMT -5
I am town yet again, I can't imagine Idle would switch one of us who were town into a scum role, but that's just my take on things.
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Post by supermel on Jun 4, 2012 14:31:02 GMT -5
I am town yet again, I can't imagine Idle would switch one of us who were town into a scum role, but that's just my take on things. I think it makes more sense to put town into scum than the flipside.. as town you are playing blind but as scum you know who else is scum- so it someone was scum, i wouldn't think that would be fair to make them town because they then would know who scum is??
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Post by kagemoto on Jun 4, 2012 14:31:06 GMT -5
For the record, there is incorrect information regarding my vote history. More precisely, there is incorrect information regarding all 3 players on the list under the "Players who have voted 3 or more confirmed town players" category.Okay so here's my extrapolation of the 4 days of data: Players who have voted 3 or more confirmed town players: Player | # of votes | Annem | Lady, Mchelle, Lady | SuperMel | Lady, Wombat, Lady | Kagemoto | Lady, Mchelle, Lady |
Only Mel has been confirmed Town above. But something to explore. I did not vote LadyRogue#1 twice. In fact, none of the 3 listed players have vote LadyRogue#1 twice. Moreover, no one has voted LadyRogue#1 at the end of Day 1 and Day 2, and all of the 3 players listed above voted endhoot in Day 3. I have no idea how this list is generated. My vote history: Day 1 - cassipietz (still in game) Day 2 - Mchelle71 (lynched and confirmed Town) Day 3 - endhoot (lynched and confirmed Scum) Day 4 - LadyRogue#1 (lynched and confirmed Town) At the moment I take this as an innocent mistake.
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Post by Rich Beckman on Jun 4, 2012 14:43:04 GMT -5
I am town yet again, I can't imagine Idle would switch one of us who were town into a scum role, but that's just my take on things. I am town yet again, I can't imagine Idle would switch one of us who were town into a scum role, but that's just my take on things. I think it makes more sense to put town into scum than the flipside.. as town you are playing blind but as scum you know who else is scum- so it someone was scum, i wouldn't think that would be fair to make them town because they then would know who scum is?? A review is in order. Roles were assigned at the beginning of the game via random.org. Therefore, non participating players probably have a similar distribution of roles and powers as participating players. When anyone is subbed in, they are subbing in for whatever player Idle thinks is next in line regardless of town/scum orientation or power. There is no reason whatsoever to prevent a dead Town from coming back in a new role that is Scum. In fact, it is a very good bet that some of the reincarnated players are scum. Dead scum cannot come back at all. They already know who is scum so they cannot come back as town. So if they did come back, everyone would know they were scum, so there is no point in it.
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Post by supermel on Jun 4, 2012 14:44:50 GMT -5
Yes on a closer look mine is wrong too. i 'think' i voted starrian1, wombat1, endhoot and ladyrouge1... i wasn't very succesfull though either way...
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Post by septimus on Jun 4, 2012 15:01:49 GMT -5
I'll need to review the postings and (try to) think, but first things first:
Unvote: Pleonast
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Post by wombat99 on Jun 4, 2012 15:15:39 GMT -5
Yes on a closer look mine is wrong too. i 'think' i voted starrian1, wombat1, endhoot and ladyrouge1... i wasn't very succesfull though either way... Chin up, girl, it's success or failure as a team, not as an individual. /at least that's what I told myself when wombat1 saved Lianne and got herself NKd
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Post by phoenixphyre on Jun 4, 2012 15:16:03 GMT -5
wow this game is harder then I thought. truth is I did not vote last day because I just did not know whom to vote for. Turns out it was a right move FOR ME. <please don't read anything more into that other than my uncertainty. with less participation it makes it harder to chose, but I am still here and still trying. I do, however, find the "coming out" of some roles as helpful, because it gives me a better idea what those roles actually do. This is just to let you know I am around, I am reading, and I am trying to make sense of it all.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Jun 4, 2012 15:38:36 GMT -5
Do we know this for certain? I mean, yes, we have all the power roles specified in the setup covered, but...well, I guess in my mind I was looking at that list as non-scum power roles, and thinking that there was still an opportunity for there to be unmentioned, scum-based ones. But again, that was just the way I was reading it, so I suppose I don't have any other basis for this. Hmm..wonder if this can be easily cleared up? Pardon me, Idle -- can you confirm or deny the presence of a Godfather role? Well, I suppose you can't confirm, but you can certainly deny it if the list of roles offered up at the beginning covered the possibility of scum powers. What say you?There aren't any roles outside of the five I said in the beginning. JustbeingGinger - 1 vote (Colby11) Meeko - 1 vote (Mahaloth) Starrirain - 1 vote (Pleonast)
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Colby11
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Post by Colby11 on Jun 4, 2012 15:40:54 GMT -5
Right now scum are in a dilemma. Either go after confirmed town, or try to go after detectives and doctors. Detectives in the LNG run can hurt scum, leaving them nowhere to hide.
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Post by dizzymrslizzy on Jun 4, 2012 16:01:11 GMT -5
<sniped> At the moment I take this as an innocent mistake. I took the vote histories day by day and transposed them into a spreadsheet. At one point I sorted it, and I'm just realizing that some of the data got jumbled. I'm just realizing that I might have sorted just the names and killed the voting results probably across the board for Day 1. Please disregard my charts and let me redo the D1 votes. *sigh* I'm sorry guys. It was an innocent mistake.
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Post by dizzymrslizzy on Jun 4, 2012 16:07:55 GMT -5
Ah FFS, I have no clue what the hell I did. Please completely ignore those charts, I'm not going to do it now, but I'll rework it later hopefully after I get everyone in bed.
As an OOG side note: I have a 3 month old newborn. I didn't want to pull that card, but it's the reason for my scatterbrainedness, and oversensitiveness. I'm just really not getting any sleep and I'm a bit overwhelmed ATM. So seriously please forgive me for that screw up.
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Post by wombat99 on Jun 4, 2012 16:39:07 GMT -5
Hang in there, dizzy. I'm interested in your vote analysis when you get it fixed. Richbeckman, you made reference to keeping a spreadsheet - are you tracking votes and have you found anything interesting?
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Post by guiri on Jun 4, 2012 16:45:26 GMT -5
@ richbeckman, interesting may not mean convincing but it certainly doesn't mean confusing, unclear or non-existant. I may be a little agressive but it's a strategy I use to hunt scum. If you had any interest in hunting scum, yes, you'd ask. Was LadyRogue a low info player compared to Texcat? Was LadyRogue laying lower than Texcat? Is casting a late vote worse than not casting a vote at all? Did LadyRogue ask Hal an odd question?
Texcat's first post simply rang alarm bells for me. The fact that she appeared concerned about my vote, which was intended as a joke, comparing gnarly's post to SilverJan's, when SilverJan was actually responding to gnarly, and asking why I'd voted gnarly over SilverJan, when SilverJan didn't do any of the things I'd accused gnarly of. She then goes all protective on Pleo, first a pressure vote on cassipetz, then switches to jm697mn, still a pressure vote to give vote reasoning, and then another pressure vote on Suburban for his random vote, and that's it for D1. Where's the scum hunting, where are the accusations, why all the defending on players whose alignments she should have no idea about? We don't hear back from her until N2 when she promises some thoughts but then on D3 she adds a vote to the endhoot lynch (null tell), refers to the vig as "he" and "him" (I suspect she'd recognised me by that point), gets a dig in on the claimed cop by complaining that Hal didn't claim on D2 in order to prevent a mislynch (how? lianne was almost lynched, he didn't have a result on mchlle71), and then votes to end the day quickly after completely missing D2.
Richbeckman, I apologized for going overboard and being too harsh with you, I hadn't noticed that you'd been on a campaign for full disclosure of vote reasonings. The rest of my post stands, I suspect you are scum, I gave a number of reasons to suspect you and if Texcat flips scum, I'll be happy to vote you.
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Post by guiri on Jun 4, 2012 17:08:45 GMT -5
Updated, color-coded vote count, note living masons are in blue.
----------Day 1----------
starrirain_v1 (14): MrSpecialEdArchangel[97], colby11[109], Gadarene[175], septimus_v1[325], Pleonast[560], mchlle71[579], dizzymrslizzy[599], lianne[604], richardbeckman[624], supermel[648], jmj697mn[650], annem[651], ascime[652], laurieRn[669]
dizzymrslizzy (6): SuburbanPlankton[65], wombat99_v1[198], SilverJan[332], Paranoia[404], cathi[581], starrirain_v1[596] Pleonast (6): CatInASuit[10], BillMc[13], Meeko[14], cassiepietz[117], michelehunter_v1[126], jmj697mn[142-308], dizzymrslizzy[266-364], francescaj[329]
Meeko (5): InnerStickler[28], Pleonast[35-338], SilverJan[151-332], lauriern[199-669], amykb[203], septimus[206-325], patricia[225], crys[228], annetastic[240]
SuburbanPlankton (2): Mahaloth[104], texcat[475]
texcat (1): guiri_v1[243], jmj697mn[308-650] Guiri_v1 (1): dizzymrslizzy[77-266], SusanKMurphy[150]
MrSpecialEdArchangel (1): oldred[154] cassiepietz (1): kagemoto[122], texcat[140-152] annetastic (1): allyjayne[244] michelehunter_v1 (1): Lightfoot[296] Lauriern (1): HalBriston[361] Gadarene (1): jerelijah[448] oldred (1): PhoenixPhyre[583]
gnarlycharlie (0): guiri_v1[9-243] wombat99_v1 (0): septimus_v1[136-206] catinasuit (0): Pleonast[338-560] jmj697mn (0): texcat[152-316] septimus_v1 (0): richbeckman[471-624]
Not Voting (18): gnarlycharlie, SisterCoyote, jlrinmke, MHaye, laxrules017, wombat99_v2, Septimus_v2, endhoot, JustBeingGinger, TotalUlla, aleetha, guiri_v2, mistde, Michelehunter_v2, Roosh, Starrirain_v2, Suits101, LadyRogue
----------Day 2----------
mchlle71 (9): wombat99[291-328,684], kagemoto[293], LaurieRn[294], richbeckman[297-300], Gadarene[318], amykb[327], annem[352], crys[414], jlrinmke[419], lianne[677]
lianne (8): guiri_v1[143], TotalUllz[152], dizzymrslizzy[157], annestastic[400], septimus_v1[499], richbeckman[600], SusanKMurphy[614], gnarlycharlie[646]
michelehunter_v1 (5): MrSpecialEd/Archangel[8-534], jmj697mm[13], mahaloth[15], septimus_v1[319-499], wombat99[328-684], Meeko[370-386], CatInASuit[449], Archangel[633], MHaye[681] wombat99_v1 (5): supermel[417], phoenixphyre[496], Pleonast[456], Colby11[492], michelehunter[544]
MrSpecialEdArchangel (2): cassipietz[74], lianne[75-254], mchlle71[105], phoenixphyre[133-496] Meeko (2): SuburbanPlankton[315], patricia[460]
dizzymrslizzy (1): Pleonast[135-135], SilverJan[234-244,430-508,603], Archangel[567-633] Gadarene (1): Meeko[386], Archangel[540-567] Supermel (1): laxrules017[5] septimus_v1 (1): oldred[260] LaurieRn (1): HalBriston[398] aleetha (1): endhoot[556] endhoot (1): JustBeingGinger[606]
oldred (0): Archangel[534-539] laxrules017 (0): Meeko[66-370], Colby11[85-492] cassiepietz (0): Gadarene[132-318], Pleonast[135-456] SilverJan (0): wombat99_v1[273-291] mahaloth (0): Pleonast[135-135] LadyRogue (0): SilverJan[508-603]
Not Voting (17): Texcat, cathi, ascime, wombat99_v2, septimus_v2, InnerStickler, aleetha, allyjayne, guiri_v2, jerelijah, mistde, Roosh, starrirain_v2, michelehunter_v2, Suits101, Paranoia, LadyRogue
----------Day 3----------
endhoot (29)[/color]: JustBeingGinger[4-120], SusanKMurphy[12], kagemoto[23], Suits101[28], michelehunter_v2[32], starrirain_v2[37-131], Meeko[38-238,276], mahaloth[39], texcat[43], wombat99_v1[44], dizzymrslizzy[48], crys[55], richbeckman[57], jmj697mn[58], annem[60], casipietz[64], cathi[69], supermel[70], jlrinmke[80], SilverJan[89], Colby11[91], TotalUllz[100], septimus_v1[101], gnarlycharlie[115], CatInASuit[121], Paranoia[134], HalBriston[178], Archangel[219], LadyRogue[265], phoenixphyre[287], amykb[293]
annem (2): JustBeingGinger[120], starrirain_v2[131] texcat (2): guiri_v1[210], aleetha[257]
jerelijah (1): jerelijah[151] Wombat99_v1 (1): patricia[155]
SilverJan (0): amykb[205-263], Meeko[239-276]
Not Voting (14): Pleonast, SuburbanPlankton, MHaye, ascime, annestastic, wombat99_v2, septimus_v2, endhoot, InnerStickler, allyjayne, guiri_v2, mistde, Roosh, oldred
----------Day 4----------
LadyRogue (9): dizzymrslizzy[26], SilverJan[42], cathi[110], Pleonast[157-157], kagemoto[169], Supermel[208], annem[210], aleetha[228], richardbeckman[232], crys[236]
Meeko (6): texcat[49], septimus[54-106], mahaloth[55], patricia[128], Pleonast[157], amykb[168], MHaye[230]
texcat (5): Guiri[4], Meeko[46], Suits101[73], septimus[106], cassipietz[153]
dizzymrslizzy (4): LadyRogue[112], wombat99[201], TotalUllz[206], michelehunter[226]
Pleonast (1): oldred[59] wombat99 (1): SusanKMurphy[101] gnarlycharlie (1): Archangel[174] Annem (1): Starrirain[223]
Non Voters (16): gnarlycharlie, SuburbanPlankton, CatInASuit, jlrinmke, phoenixphyre, annestastic, JustBeingGinger, InnerStickler, jmj697mn, allyjayne, jerelijah, mistde, HalBriston, Roosh, starrirain, Paranoia
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Post by Archangel on Jun 4, 2012 17:40:17 GMT -5
[bVote Pleonast][/b][/color]
I don't buy your claim. You say you wanted to reveal results before Night so an NK wouldn't prevent you from revealing them? But we're allowed to talk at night.
I don't believe a real detective would claim town power on Day One and make themselves a target.
I don't believe the people you claimed to investigate. You were certain Meeko was scum and yet didn't investigate him?
(For the newbies: A little reminder. That doesn't mean his or her "results" are wrong. Scum knows who town are. S/he could randomly have picked 3 real town members and announced they are town.)
You claimed under little pressure (other than a well-thought out case from Septimus II.
This game is the perfect game for scum to make a fake detective claim in because we know there are multiple detectives and we do not know how many there are.
Hal Briston (whose claim I believe as I don't see any reason for him to bus scum so early in the game) or Colby (whose claim I am left wondering about because it was unnecessary at this time when he probably has few results, having just subbed into his role, but I've seen him do that before when he did indeed flip detective), have either of you investigated Pleonast? If either of you have a town result on him/her I'll retract my vote, but otherwise, I smell foul.
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Post by Archangel on Jun 4, 2012 17:41:06 GMT -5
Um, that would be Vote Pleonast.
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Post by michelehunter on Jun 4, 2012 19:13:47 GMT -5
2. Pleonast 3. gnarlycharlie 5. Suburban Plankton 7. Texcat 8. CatinaSuit 9. Archangel 11. Cathi 13. jlrinmke - TOWN (as investigated by Pleonast) 14. phoenixphyre 19. supermel - TOWN (as investigated by Pleonast) 20. kagemoto 21. dizzymrslizzy 22. crys 24. annetastic 25. wombat99 28. Meeko 29. AmyKB 30. Septimus 32. JustBeingGinger 33. Total Ulla 34. Inner Stickler. 36. aleetha 37. susanmurphy 38. richbeckman 39. Patricia 40. cassipietz 42. guiri 43. jerelijah 45. mistde 48. Michelehunter - TOWN (as investigated by Pleonast) 50. LadyRogue 51. Starrirain 53. annem 56. Suits101 58. Paranoia
As I see it (and yes I left the list by Pleonast as some are questioning him) the ones left here are who we need to focus on. I don't count the 2 votes for scum that were announced by Hal, as any one who didn't vote for them would be suspicious.
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Post by Rich Beckman on Jun 4, 2012 21:22:54 GMT -5
<SNIP> Richbeckman, you made reference to keeping a spreadsheet - are you tracking votes and have you found anything interesting? Sorry, I am just keeping track of who is still alive, who is dead (and how), and who is/was confirmed Scum/Town.
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Post by LadyRogue-II on Jun 5, 2012 0:14:22 GMT -5
I don't have any more idea of who is town and who is scum than I did before.
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Meeko
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Post by Meeko on Jun 5, 2012 1:26:13 GMT -5
Well, looks like we're getting a good list of confirmed*-town going. I'll add to that by letting you know I was inspired by Meeko's paranoia and took a look at colby11 last night. He's town as well. *As in "someone claiming detective has confirmed them". Going to play Devil's Advocate here. Hal, remind me where you were confirmed as town again? [[Assume for breveity that I mean Mod Confirmed, and you will at once see the WIFOMeeko*.]] *Yeah, I just came up with that, It's staying.
This is where I am gang. I am still town, and I don't get the votes against me, nor do I get why I haven't been investigated yet. To that end, until I can get further on either of those, it's not like I'm going to be doing a lot of play on the game as it stands. Vote: Pleonast Because, I think the game is at a point now, where one of the assumptions town has made at large is wrong. This one is as good as any, and is also one of the eldest held assumptions. Add to that, that Pleonast put in some "Wait for it" red herring and we got a COD that he has to answer for. I'm fine turning a COD into a POD.
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Meeko
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Post by Meeko on Jun 5, 2012 1:29:05 GMT -5
(For the newbies: A little reminder. That doesn't mean his or her "results" are wrong. Scum knows who town are. S/he could randomly have picked 3 real town members and announced they are town.) I covered this at length in night four. I didn't see any comment from you there. But, I've got two players that aren't me, understanding me. So I will take that for what it's worth, and move on.
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Meeko
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Post by Meeko on Jun 5, 2012 1:30:12 GMT -5
NETA :
Is there any value, or in fact any actual angle in an Ultimatum to Pleonast that he state my Alignment tommorow, or we lynch him then?
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Post by septimus on Jun 5, 2012 2:30:47 GMT -5
N1: supemel is town. N2: dottiebob is town. Which means the new michelehunter is town, if my notes are correct. N3: - N4: jlrinmke is town. I was trying to pick players who didn't have many contributions, and new players (or new to me, at least), since I think new players are more likely to get mislynched. "who didn't have many contributions" was an understatement in the case of dottiebob, who hardly participated at all. supermel has been fairly active; and you respond to her latest question. As usual you give good Town-friendly advice: ... Best be good to get out your thoughts before each Dawn. Uhhhh... One problem here. By Day 2, you had some useful thoughts. You knew (or now claim to have known) that - supermel was Town
- Scum might Kill you since you were a claimed Power.
Since supermel and you were both posting relatively actively, it would have been very simple to have breadcrumbed. You could quote one of supermel's posts and write "I think she's right" or "Yes because ..." Such a crumb could have passed unnoticed, yet turned very significant if you were NK'ed and flipped Detective. Did you do such a thing and I missed it? I'm still guessing you're Scum. Of the three Townie reveals you've claimed, I guess 2 are Town, but you've likely put one Scum partner in there as well. I hope experienced players will comment on the wisdom of Lynching a claimed Detective. If nothing else turns up, I may end up Voting texcat again for reasons previously given: guiri's case seems sound and has the added benefit that if texcat flips Scum, guiri gets soft-cleared. But whatever happens toDay, I hope our Doctors stop wasting Protection on Pleonast.
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Post by Hal Briston on Jun 5, 2012 6:16:35 GMT -5
Hal, remind me where you were confirmed as town again? [[Assume for breveity that I mean Mod Confirmed The hell? "I have a car". "Remind me again where you got your brand-new Ferrari?" I was pretty damn clear -- in the very lines you quoted -- exactly what "confirmed" meant for these purposes. Am I mod-confirmed? Of course not -- I never claimed to be, no one believes that I am. Townie points to you for making sure everyone remembers that every time I make a reveal. Understood -- either I'm exactly what I claim to be, or I'm pulling off one of the best scum-gambits ever. See, here's the thing -- I'm playing for the midgame. I have no illusions of making it to the endgame -- the docs can't be everywhere every night, and scum are going to manage to slip one past them one of these days, and then I'll be mod-confirmed. If you'd prefer to wait until then to put together lists of townies, be my guest. In the meantime, at least for my own useage, I'll continute to keep track of exactly who I know is town, thanks.
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Post by Archangel on Jun 5, 2012 6:23:25 GMT -5
(For the newbies: A little reminder. That doesn't mean his or her "results" are wrong. Scum knows who town are. S/he could randomly have picked 3 real town members and announced they are town.) I covered this at length in night four. I didn't see any comment from you there. But, I've got two players that aren't me, understanding me. So I will take that for what it's worth, and move on. I know you did. I'm repeating it specifically for the benefit of the new players Pleo "cleared." "Clearing" newbies who are town is a powerful form of scum cuddling.
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