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Post by Idle Thoughts on Jul 8, 2012 19:40:14 GMT -5
Cathi was....
Scum. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
And now it's Night again...everyone should know what to do by now.
Night will end on Tuesday at 8AM
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Post by crys on Jul 8, 2012 19:41:19 GMT -5
Yeah score one for town!
Sent from my SCH-I405 using ProBoards
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Post by michelehunter on Jul 8, 2012 19:54:40 GMT -5
Wooo hoooo way to go 1 more scum down
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Post by JustBeingGinger on Jul 8, 2012 20:05:37 GMT -5
Very good!
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Colby11
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Post by Colby11 on Jul 8, 2012 23:46:05 GMT -5
Sweet!!
Now to carry over my scum analysis.
From previous posts, I have concluded that the scum kill numbers were connected to how many there are. I still think that there are 12 scum, so we should be down to 4 scum and one scum kill tonight. Is everyone thinking this could be right?
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Post by Silver Jan on Jul 9, 2012 0:30:45 GMT -5
Well done Town.
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Post by dizzymrslizzy on Jul 9, 2012 6:36:29 GMT -5
Colby That analysis wouldn't make sense at all! We've lost 2 town every single day. I think it's more likely that Scum get 3 kills and a Doc has blocked one. If there isn't a doc then why hasn't Hal been killed yet. I guess we'll see tonight, but I find it highly unlikely that scum would only have one kill tonight.
Well done everyone. I really didn't feel the Cathi case at all! Glad others did!
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Post by patricia on Jul 9, 2012 6:43:39 GMT -5
That feels real good. We found one without a cop! WTG town!
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Post by dizzymrslizzy on Jul 9, 2012 6:45:26 GMT -5
Interesting. So I'm thinking is RichardBeckman Town because of Cathi's focus on him and trying to build a bandwagon on him. I can't imagine she'd pick someone another scum at this point to bust.
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Post by cassipietz on Jul 9, 2012 7:18:48 GMT -5
I am back and just got done reading day 10...as I read Cathi pinged me more and more as scum...happy to see that my feelings were correct! (I waited to read the night until I was caught up) The only thing left for me to do is to go back and read the wall of words...my brain was on overload so I skipped it Back to reading!
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Post by wombat99 on Jul 9, 2012 8:11:29 GMT -5
Interesting. So I'm thinking is RichardBeckman Town because of Cathi's focus on him and trying to build a bandwagon on him. I can't imagine she'd pick someone another scum at this point to bust. I agree with you about richbeckman but for a different reason. He voted on D10 #116; at the time, the vote was 5-5-4 Suits, Suburban, Cathi; his vote put Cathi in a 3-way tie for the lead. Not something scum would do. (Also I think he made the most convincing case against Cathi by closely analyzing her motives. He had me ready to move my vote if necessary; until then I was too unsure about her).
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Post by supermel on Jul 9, 2012 8:45:41 GMT -5
glad scum was caught! woohoo.
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Post by Hal Briston on Jul 9, 2012 10:40:20 GMT -5
Colby That analysis wouldn't make sense at all! We've lost 2 town every single day. I think it's more likely that Scum get 3 kills and a Doc has blocked one. If there isn't a doc then why hasn't Hal been killed yet. I guess we'll see tonight, but I find it highly unlikely that scum would only have one kill tonight. It's based off a complete bit of guesswork from early on. I had posited that if I were running the game, I'd have set it up with 12 scum who got three nightkills. When they were down to eight, they got two kills, and one kill when they were down to four scum left. Now, there is a decent chance that might still hold. If scum took shots at me early on which were blocked, they'd know there was a doc out here somewhere. That doc may or may not protect me on any given night, but scum could easily say "Ok, we only have two kills now. Let's not waste them by trying to kill the most likely protect target -- instead, we knock off two random and/or known town each night. Eventually we find the doc, and Hal dies the next night". So, just because there are two kills each night and not three, that doesn't tell us exactly how many kills they have available each night.
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Post by Hal Briston on Jul 9, 2012 10:40:48 GMT -5
And woohoo for nailing scum to the wall!
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Post by dizzymrslizzy on Jul 9, 2012 14:32:25 GMT -5
Hal I didn't think of it that way at all. Good point and I hope you are right! I was thinking that scum was probably trying to hit you every night without fail hoping that a Doc would maybe falter one day and protect someone else.
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Colby11
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Post by Colby11 on Jul 9, 2012 16:58:39 GMT -5
Hal I didn't think of it that way at all. Good point and I hope you are right! I was thinking that scum was probably trying to hit you every night without fail hoping that a Doc would maybe falter one day and protect someone else. As I have stated, on Night 3, scum killed only 2 people instead of 3 like they did on Nights 1 and 2. At the start of Night, 4 scum had been killed, 2 that day. So I was under the impression that scum either had 9 or 12 members. Since the kills did not decrease since the deaths that we have had, it was assumed that scum had 12 players. So now with an 8th scum dead, will the deaths decrease like I think they should? I don't see why, it would make sense to link the number of kills to the number of scum players.
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Post by guiri on Jul 10, 2012 6:37:09 GMT -5
Interesting. So I'm thinking is RichardBeckman Town because of Cathi's focus on him and trying to build a bandwagon on him. I can't imagine she'd pick someone another scum at this point to bust. Why not? I agree with you about richbeckman but for a different reason. He voted on D10 #116; at the time, the vote was 5-5-4 Suits, Suburban, Cathi; his vote put Cathi in a 3-way tie for the lead. Not something scum would do. Why not? That's exactly what scum would do. He had me ready to move my vote if necessary; until then I was too unsure about her). What? What do you mean by "if necessary"? You kept your vote on Suburban, even when there was a 7-7 tie.
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Post by dizzymrslizzy on Jul 10, 2012 7:25:29 GMT -5
Guiri, because that's my lean on the situation. That's all. It seems unlikely given the number of scum that has to be left. They've got to be pretty close to their LYLO limit at this point.
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Post by guiri on Jul 10, 2012 8:36:13 GMT -5
Guiri, because that's my lean on the situation. That's all. It seems unlikely given the number of scum that has to be left. They've got to be pretty close to their LYLO limit at this point. YesterDay there were probably between 5 and 8 scum remaining out of 26 players. I can see scum deciding to bus one of the team in order to gain Town cred for the others if the expected benefit was worthwhile.
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Post by wombat99 on Jul 10, 2012 9:51:20 GMT -5
Why not? That's exactly what scum would do. He had me ready to move my vote if necessary; until then I was too unsure about her). What? What do you mean by "if necessary"? You kept your vote on Suburban, even when there was a 7-7 tie. regarding richbeckman - I see what you're saying; but would the gain in Townie cred be worth it? Maybe so if there *are* still a larger number of scum left. And I did keep my vote on Suburban, but I was watching EOD. LadyRogue put Cathi ahead by 1 (about 3.5 hours before EOD), then the only thing that might have happened is if Cathi had come back to make a self-preserving vote on Suburban to tie it up again. But then Archangel switched her vote ~45 minutes before EOD to put Cathi up by 2, so it was pretty safe at that point. (I'm more careful about moving my vote last-minute now; if I moved my vote and cathi had flipped town and suburban ends up flipping scum, deja vu, lianne/mchlle71 all over again; that's why I said I would have moved it *if necessary*).
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Post by michelehunter on Jul 10, 2012 15:57:36 GMT -5
I thought Lady Rouge coming to vote at the last minute was interesting myself. When is this night over? didn't it say 8am it's LONG past that now
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Post by jlrinmke on Jul 10, 2012 19:12:09 GMT -5
I a super sorry about not voting. My computer had some virus downloaded to it and I had to give it to the store to get cleaned up.
I am back and reading avidly. I did not see the case for Cathi, so it's probably best I didn't jump in and muddy the waters with a vote for someone else.
I will sit with a pad and paper to see what I can reason out while this night runs.
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Post by annetastic on Jul 10, 2012 20:02:00 GMT -5
Yeah another scum bites the dust ..... even if I didn't vote for them !! will you all still be going for the lynch leaders from Day10 in Day11 or going after someone completely different .. I am looking at the runners up again and I semi agree about Richbeckman[b/] being town and Hal[b/] posted a good point too so I will follow those up as well
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Post by annetastic on Jul 10, 2012 20:03:07 GMT -5
Oooops my bold tag didn't work on the post above
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Jul 10, 2012 23:12:29 GMT -5
Sorry for not being on for a bit. Day coming soon.
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