|
Day 11
Jul 12, 2012 8:58:37 GMT -5
Post by cassipietz on Jul 12, 2012 8:58:37 GMT -5
I've been kinda intrigued by the various maths being used to figure out how many Scum are in the game and how their multiple kills work, but after seeing just one death toDay, I guess it all comes together! so, we're probably looking at 4 Scum and 20 Town left? I think our odds are pretty good, then, especially with 7 confirmed Town (including Hal's 2 mystery folks) in the mix. It kinda makes me want to re-examine the people Pleo declared ( supermel, crys, michelehunter, and the newGnarly), as I did think it would be odd that he wouldn't try to help out any of his fellow scum after his antics. so, that's who I'll be looking at today, though Suburban is still on my list, too. Did you come to any conclusions about the high-priority substition? Maybe scum thought he was the Doc? No, I didn't. I kinda figured that, because the experienced players weren't saying much about the situation, this must have precedent. Though, after seeing the CIAS sub was knocked out last Night, I wonder if that position being Town says something about the now-subbed jerejiliah /newGnarly and the remaining inactive, totalulla. also, Gnarly, if you're now back, that means whomever you investigated your final Night alive is dead or also known to Hal, right? or doesn't the possibility also exist that he is subbed in for scum making it irrelevant...
|
|
|
Day 11
Jul 12, 2012 11:03:12 GMT -5
Post by crys on Jul 12, 2012 11:03:12 GMT -5
I've been kinda intrigued by the various maths being used to figure out how many Scum are in the game and how their multiple kills work, but after seeing just one death toDay, I guess it all comes together! so, we're probably looking at 4 Scum and 20 Town left? I think our odds are pretty good, then, especially with 7 confirmed Town (including Hal's 2 mystery folks) in the mix. It kinda makes me want to re-examine the people Pleo declared ( supermel, crys, michelehunter, and the newGnarly), as I did think it would be odd that he wouldn't try to help out any of his fellow scum after his antics. so, that's who I'll be looking at today, though Suburban is still on my list, too. Snipped Crys version 1.0 was verified town at the time of her death, which is one less place for scum to be hiding.
|
|
|
Day 11
Jul 12, 2012 11:09:55 GMT -5
Post by crys on Jul 12, 2012 11:09:55 GMT -5
Ok ok I see your guys' point I hope we are right. Unless something damning comes from somewhere I will Vote: Suburban [/color]
|
|
|
Day 11
Jul 12, 2012 12:11:29 GMT -5
Post by Suburban Plankton on Jul 12, 2012 12:11:29 GMT -5
not sure if there is a power role in the scum pool but..... There's not. There will be 5 power roles in this game. Only five, no others. 1. There will be a secret number of Detectives. 2. There will be a secret number of Doctors. 3. There will be a secret number of Masons. 4 and 5: There will be two secret roles (two of one and one of the other). THERE IS NO RECRUITMENT.We've already seen the two secret roles: Crazed Townie and PFK Serial Killer. I'm afraid there's no room left for any secret powers. Unless you're saying that I'm a Scum Detective/Doctor/Mason. Such roles are not unheard of, but anyone who's been around here for a while will agree that there's no way story would have put such roles in a 'newbie friendly' game.
|
|
Colby11
Administrator
Creator of Hell's Kitchen Mafia
Posts: 1,193
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Day 11
Jul 12, 2012 12:56:18 GMT -5
Post by Colby11 on Jul 12, 2012 12:56:18 GMT -5
Updated list
5. Suburban Plankton 9. Archangel-town by gnarly 14. phoenixphyre 19. supermel 24. annetastic-town by Hal 27. Silver Jan- mason 28. Meeko 29. AmyKB 32. JustBeingGinger 33. Total Ulla 34. Crys 36. Wombat99 37. Dizzymrslizzy 38. richbeckman 40. cassipietz 42. Guiri- town by gnarly 43. jerelijah 45. Colby11 47. Hal Briston- detective/ town by gnarly 48. Michelehunter 50. LadyRogue 51. Starrirain 56. Suits101 58. Patricia
|
|
|
Day 11
Jul 12, 2012 13:09:02 GMT -5
Post by Suburban Plankton on Jul 12, 2012 13:09:02 GMT -5
Cathi only had 2 posts on Day 10. Her first was when she voted for richbeckman (Post 80); the vote count at that pioint was Suits101-6, Suburban-5, cathi-2 At the time of her secdnd and last post of the Day (Post 114), the vote count was Suburban-5, cathi-5, Suits101-4. So, the $64 question is: why didn't cathi change her vote in an effort to save herself? She could have voted for me thereby putting me in the lead, or she could have even voted for Suits to create a 3-way tie. So why did she stand pat? I think the best reason comes from cathi herself: On to Suburban, I kind of feel like s/he's only playing when s/he has time (hey, like me!), and I feel a lot of sympathy for the volume of players & information to keep track of. So while I recognize that's an emotionally driven response, rather than fact/post driven, I'm not voting Suburban today. I think I'm next in line, and all I can say is that I'm vanilla. While I still think that confirmed Town voting together would be powerful, I'm going to vote my conscience, as it were, even though I'm all by my lonesome. She's trying to portray herself as "just a normal person, trying to play the game the honorable way" in hopes that the bandwagon on her might turn around. And indeed, 13 posts later I was in the lead, so it almost worked. The other reason that I think she didn't change her vote is that there was no reasonable way she could vote for me at that point without it coming off as absolutely nothing but a self-preservation vote, which wasn't likely to engender support for her, plus I was voting for wombat so as far as she was concerned I could have easily come in and countered a self-preservation vote with one of my own.
|
|
|
Day 11
Jul 12, 2012 13:18:35 GMT -5
Post by Suburban Plankton on Jul 12, 2012 13:18:35 GMT -5
also, Gnarly, if you're now back, that means whomever you investigated your final Night alive is dead or also known to Hal, right? What exactly are you asking gnarly here?
|
|
|
Day 11
Jul 12, 2012 13:28:44 GMT -5
Post by JustBeingGinger on Jul 12, 2012 13:28:44 GMT -5
also, Gnarly, if you're now back, that means whomever you investigated your final Night alive is dead or also known to Hal, right? What exactly are you asking gnarly here? I think she was asking if Gnarly knew the investigation that occurred the night that he was killed or if the result would be given to Hal instead. The thing is that if you are a Cop and you get NK'd you do not get the result of the investigation that you turned in. At least that is what happened when I played cop one game.
|
|
|
Day 11
Jul 12, 2012 14:30:47 GMT -5
Post by AmyKay on Jul 12, 2012 14:30:47 GMT -5
What exactly are you asking gnarly here? I think she was asking if Gnarly knew the investigation that occurred the night that he was killed or if the result would be given to Hal instead. The thing is that if you are a Cop and you get NK'd you do not get the result of the investigation that you turned in. At least that is what happened when I played cop one game. Yep. just trying to figure out what was known. I would have thought that gnarly couldn't come back if his previous character knew something extra. I didn't know if he'd get his result or not. I didn't think it would go to Hal , but if Hal then investigated the same person, gnarly wouldn't have an advantage per se . but a good point showed up earlier, too, that if he was now scum, it wouldn't matter.
|
|
|
Day 11
Jul 12, 2012 14:39:36 GMT -5
Post by dizzymrslizzy on Jul 12, 2012 14:39:36 GMT -5
Or the person Gnarly investgated could have turned up NKed. Then it wouldn't have mattered either!
|
|
|
Day 11
Jul 12, 2012 15:17:19 GMT -5
Post by gnarlycharlie on Jul 12, 2012 15:17:19 GMT -5
hi all! good to be back.
as for my previous incarnation's investigative result, there wasn't any. i haven't heard or seen a game where the result is received.
|
|
|
Day 11
Jul 12, 2012 16:50:15 GMT -5
Post by starrirain on Jul 12, 2012 16:50:15 GMT -5
Interesting. So I'm thinking is RichardBeckman Town because of Cathi's focus on him and trying to build a bandwagon on him. I can't imagine she'd pick someone another scum at this point to bust. I agree with you about richbeckman but for a different reason. He voted on D10 #116; at the time, the vote was 5-5-4 Suits, Suburban, Cathi; his vote put Cathi in a 3-way tie for the lead. Not something scum would do. (Also I think he made the most convincing case against Cathi by closely analyzing her motives. He had me ready to move my vote if necessary; until then I was too unsure about her). Of course scum would do that! example: Didn't Pleo suddenly vote texcat for lack of credible role claim , his only other reason being to avoid late Day shenanigans. Only to have texcat come back and vote for Pleo shortly before EoD, putting Pleo 2 votes from texcat's 9 vote lynch lead. Day 5 ended with 2 scum at the top of the vote list, voting for each other. Scum wouldn't implicate another scum before they die, surely not (sarcasm). But wait they WOULD, in fact, we've already seen that this game! So, I can't grasp your theories on how rich must be Town because cathi voted him. Of course this is a good move to gain Town cred if there's a good chance your scum buddy is going down anyway. Mind you, though richbeckman added to the case, he couldn't even grasp the case himself, yet cast the tying vote. So yeah, that kinda blew my mind a lil, needless to say. See voting post for reference idlemafia.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=mara&thread=1979&page=4#96094 , first and last snips here -snip- 'I've spent the last two days trying to figure out the case on Cathi (only to see that Cathi has voted me in the meantime). This feels just like Texcat all over again, it seems like there is a case there but I am having trouble grasping it. I was wrong last time, so I have expended considerable effort trying to be correct this time.' -snip- 'I conclude that if you read her posts with the assumption that she is Scum, it all makes sense.' Vote: Cathi' So from his voting post, it would seem he built his case with the assumption that she is scum. So rich , beacause of being wrong about texcat , you spent extra time to add to a case on someone who wasn't pinging you to beigin with? Who just so happened to flip scum. So, I guess, why haven't you expended this amount of effort to develop a case on someone who was actually pinging you? I don't think I've ever seen you mention a cathi ping, though she was brought up and voted for several Days. This seems like such a buss for Townie cred, and I'm not buying it, though I thank you for helping add to our case on cathi . vote richbeckman [/color] amykb , I think we are misunderstanding, but that is why it is important to post these things. I never told you that you (or anyone) couldn't post your thoughts, nor that I didn't want to hear them, so I'm not quite sure how you got to that conclusion. In fact, I was confused as to why you decided to back off ALL of your suspects. Let me be clear by restating that the low info bandwagon I was referring to was Suits' . The comment was not meant for you directly, but towards the group as a whole. I thought I made that clear in my last post, I was not asking for anyone specific to back off of their suspects. I only wanted to suggest more possible directions for the Day aside from lynching low info, inactive players, or players who we knew weren't around to have their say. side note: Real quick to wombat , I kinda doubt myself that Suits is the doc, though still it seems unfair to lynch a player who has told us they won't be around for the rest of the Day to be able to reply. Town are dropping like flies, so yes I think substance is important when you want to make a case. I only suggested we should try to find some before placing our votes(all of us). That was (I think) directed towards wombat and his pressure vote on Suburban (and the 'me too' votes still coming in all around). Again, not towards you. I'll go further now to explain that I was highly annoyed with the 'pressure' vote especially. There are plenty of good reasons Hal is keeping his most recent Townies under wraps, and I couldn't agree more with this approach, except the fact that he was too quick to say who it was NOT. Hal keeping this to himself not only gives people a chance to use their own thought process and voice their opinions, it also is a nice lil safety net in case scum (or Town for that matter) try to start a wagon in the wrong direction. This means, scum don't know everyone we(or Hal in this case) knows is town, thus, we can be assured they're more cautious about where to place their vote, what they say, and how it looks. Also the pressure vote on suits by dizzy got several me too's along with it. To those of you suspicious of Suburban for missing that Hal was confirmed, should you not also be suspicious of amykb as well? To my reccollection, she missed this as well, only amykb's play has been much more active and consistent than Suburban's . Check here for this interaction idlemafia.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=mara&thread=1979&page=2#96002 Sure later she says she wasn't asking about Hal , but unless I am blind or totally reading this wrong, she straight up asked Suburban if he would consider voting Hal , then asked Meeko to weigh in on the subject as well. I had every mind to see where this was going, but found it more important to remind everyone of the list of confirmed players gnarly left us before his demise.
|
|
|
Day 11
Jul 12, 2012 17:41:09 GMT -5
Post by guiri on Jul 12, 2012 17:41:09 GMT -5
So I suppose by EOD Suburban was not my top lynch candidate any longer ( Cathi was), but I was too chicken to move my vote due to being previously NK'd for a last minute vote switch. Ha ha! In retrospect, it was really her Day One conversion from anxious newbie to confident (but wrong) scum finder that turned me. What are your thoughts on Starrirain then? Did you want to add something? So rich , beacause of being wrong about texcat , you spent extra time to add to a case on someone who wasn't pinging you to beigin with? Who just so happened to flip scum. So, I guess, why haven't you expended this amount of effort to develop a case on someone who was actually pinging you? Are you sure this is your first game? Good point and also... I was wrong last time, so I have expended considerable effort trying to be correct this time. Note the wording, "trying to be correct this time", not "trying to understand the case", not "trying to approach this from another point of view", not "trying to analyze motivations", but specifically "trying to be correct", as if it were already a known fact that Cathi was scum but he needed to go through the motions in order to reach the foregone conclusion. Vote Richbeckman
|
|
|
Day 11
Jul 12, 2012 18:23:15 GMT -5
Post by Archangel on Jul 12, 2012 18:23:15 GMT -5
I am seeing the Richbeckman case.
Vote Richbeckman.
|
|
|
Day 11
Jul 12, 2012 19:11:22 GMT -5
Post by Archangel on Jul 12, 2012 19:11:22 GMT -5
And I hesitate to do this, have been going back and forth about it, but I have a target on my back tonight already anyway because of the investigation and I'm thinking it's better for town to have this info anyway. I am the (probably sole) remaining doctor. And I'm pretty sure my protection worked last night rather than having there be one less scum kill.
|
|
|
Day 11
Jul 12, 2012 19:19:32 GMT -5
Post by Archangel on Jul 12, 2012 19:19:32 GMT -5
(My thinking in revealing this now is that scum would have me on their list anyway because of the confirmed thing. I could have kept quiet and protected myself but there are 3 of us "confirmed" now and two of you obviously aren't the doctor. So I'd like to give Hal a chance to reveal his results if he wants, given that I'm not going to be able to protect him beyond toNight if there are indeed still 2 scum kills...which I believe there are.)
|
|
|
Post by crys on Jul 12, 2012 19:50:30 GMT -5
(My thinking in revealing this now is that scum would have me on their list anyway because of the confirmed thing. I could have kept quiet and protected myself but there are 3 of us "confirmed" now and two of you obviously aren't the doctor. So I'd like to give Hal a chance to reveal his results if he wants, given that I'm not going to be able to protect him beyond toNight if there are indeed still 2 scum kills...which I believe there are.) I would agree that maybe revealing results may be good but if you protect him again tonight would that protection vanish upon your death or would he live for one more day Sent from my SCH-I405 using ProBoards
|
|
|
Day 11
Jul 12, 2012 20:03:28 GMT -5
Post by Archangel on Jul 12, 2012 20:03:28 GMT -5
(My thinking in revealing this now is that scum would have me on their list anyway because of the confirmed thing. I could have kept quiet and protected myself but there are 3 of us "confirmed" now and two of you obviously aren't the doctor. So I'd like to give Hal a chance to reveal his results if he wants, given that I'm not going to be able to protect him beyond toNight if there are indeed still 2 scum kills...which I believe there are.) I would agree that maybe revealing results may be good but if you protect him again tonight would that protection vanish upon your death or would he live for one more day Sent from my SCH-I405 using ProBoards If I protect him toNight and they kill me, he'll live until toMorrow and can give results then. But the next night I won't be here to protect him. So, I can buy him one more night with my life, or if I don't he almost certainly dies toNight.
|
|
|
Day 11
Jul 12, 2012 20:09:39 GMT -5
Post by Archangel on Jul 12, 2012 20:09:39 GMT -5
And I hesitate to do this, have been going back and forth about it, but I have a target on my back tonight already anyway because of the investigation and I'm thinking it's better for town to have this info anyway. I am the (probably sole) remaining doctor. And I'm pretty sure my protection worked last night rather than having there be one less scum kill. NETA: I think the protection worked because I switched my target last night. The first night where we only had one NK, I protected Hal. I continued to protect Hal every night and we had two NKs. Last night I switched targets and protected Guiri.
|
|
|
Day 11
Jul 12, 2012 20:10:46 GMT -5
Post by Archangel on Jul 12, 2012 20:10:46 GMT -5
And now I need opinions on whether it's better to buy Hal one more night or self-protect myself to end game.
|
|
|
Day 11
Jul 12, 2012 20:56:21 GMT -5
Post by Suburban Plankton on Jul 12, 2012 20:56:21 GMT -5
And now I need opinions on whether it's better to buy Hal one more night or self-protect myself to end game. Yes, it is. Then again, maybe not... ;D If you wanted a serious answer, I'm afraid I don't have one of those at the moment. But I'll give it some thought.
|
|
|
Day 11
Jul 12, 2012 22:01:05 GMT -5
Post by dizzymrslizzy on Jul 12, 2012 22:01:05 GMT -5
Ugh....I don't quite understand why you claimed at this point Arch. I know you said there's a target on your back, but why tonight? There are 4 Town confirmed aside from Hal. What made you think they would target you toNight?
I'm just confused...I would have thought it would have been better to stay quiet! But heck what I do I know it's only my first game.
|
|
|
Day 11
Jul 12, 2012 22:25:21 GMT -5
Post by michelehunter on Jul 12, 2012 22:25:21 GMT -5
I'm glad someone else is as confused as I am??? I thought maybe I missed something, hence the reveal? I think this was a BAD move, sorry
|
|
|
Day 11
Jul 12, 2012 22:29:31 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Jul 12, 2012 22:29:31 GMT -5
Suburban Plankton - 3 votes (Meeko, michelehunter, crys) Richardbeckman - 3 votes (starrirain, guiri, Archangel)
|
|
|
Post by crys on Jul 12, 2012 22:30:30 GMT -5
Well confirmed town die...claiming now allows hal to give any i.nformation he hasn't yet which makes it less places for scum to hide.
Sent from my SCH-I405 using ProBoards
|
|
|
Day 11
Jul 12, 2012 22:38:01 GMT -5
Post by Rich Beckman on Jul 12, 2012 22:38:01 GMT -5
<snip> So from his voting post, it would seem he built his case with the assumption that she is scum. So rich , beacause of being wrong about texcat , you spent extra time to add to a case on someone who wasn't pinging you to beigin with? Who just so happened to flip scum. So, I guess, why haven't you expended this amount of effort to develop a case on someone who was actually pinging you? I don't think I've ever seen you mention a cathi ping, though she was brought up and voted for several Days. This seems like such a buss for Townie cred, and I'm not buying it, though I thank you for helping add to our case on cathi . <snip> My problem is that no one is pinging me. I put the effort into Cathi because the situation to me felt exactly like Texcat. It bugs me to hell that so many seemed to see the case against Texcat so well and I just was not able to grasp it. For me this was the challenge: can I see a case against Cathi. I do not know how many times I read through her posts (thankfully, they are few). Once I saw the shift from anxious newbie to confident scum hunter, I am in disbelief that I did not see that right away. I think I have stated before that this game is very difficult for me in that I have always been biased to accept what people say at face value. I do get extremely cynical when dealing with sales people, but I have not figured out how to turn that on when I read this game. I did have a day or so when everyone seemed suspicious, and every person's suspicion seemed right on, but I was unable to sustain that. I freely admit that I do not think I have come up with a case against someone all on my own, so yes, I am reduced to evaluating other's cases.
|
|
|
Day 11
Jul 12, 2012 22:45:33 GMT -5
Post by wombat99 on Jul 12, 2012 22:45:33 GMT -5
~snipped~ Of course scum would do that! example: Didn't Pleo suddenly vote texcat for lack of credible role claim , his only other reason being to avoid late Day shenanigans. Only to have texcat come back and vote for Pleo shortly before EoD, putting Pleo 2 votes from texcat's 9 vote lynch lead. Day 5 ended with 2 scum at the top of the vote list, voting for each other. Scum wouldn't implicate another scum before they die, surely not (sarcasm). But wait they WOULD, in fact, we've already seen that this game! So, I can't grasp your theories on how rich must be Town because cathi voted him. Of course this is a good move to gain Town cred if there's a good chance your scum buddy is going down anyway. The question is not "would scum do that?" but, "would scum do that *now*," at this point in the game, when they could be down to as few as 4? Would the gain in townie cred would be worth such a pivotal bussing-vote? I get that you don't think Suburban is scum, but I do; you don't see any value in bringing lynch pressure on a player you think is scum to see their reaction? Suburban's reaction was to disappear, which planted seeds of doubt in my mind; that's another piece of information that is useful to me. Hal is a big boy and I am quite sure that he only reveals what he wants to reveal. I doubt that he read my post and thought, " Wombat wants to know if I investigated Suburban! Darn, I was hoping to keep that to myself but now I've got to go set her straight!" ;D He could have ignored my post (it wasn't a direct question to him). If Hal wants to nudge the direction of discussion based on his knowledge, what's wrong with that? As far as Suits goes - I don't see how you can fault Dizzy for any of the Suits votes other than her own. People place "pressure" votes (if you want to call it that) all the time because they want a player to clarify or address a point. Then they evaluate that response and either change their vote if they are satisfied, or they don't. Dizzy and Hal, for example, gave good reasons for voting Suits; they wanted her to explain her actions. Its' not their fault that we have some "me too" voters; call *those* players out for no-thought votes, if you think that's what they are; then, if you think the Suits voters should have come back to change their votes, well, they didn't; ask them to justify why they kept their vote on Suits.
|
|
|
Day 11
Jul 12, 2012 22:55:56 GMT -5
Post by wombat99 on Jul 12, 2012 22:55:56 GMT -5
And I hesitate to do this, have been going back and forth about it, but I have a target on my back tonight already anyway because of the investigation and I'm thinking it's better for town to have this info anyway. I am the (probably sole) remaining doctor. And I'm pretty sure my protection worked last night rather than having there be one less scum kill. NETA: I think the protection worked because I switched my target last night. The first night where we only had one NK, I protected Hal. I continued to protect Hal every night and we had two NKs. Last night I switched targets and protected Guiri. I don't see how this proves that scum still have two kills... they could be down to one and they just chose not to target Hal because they've assumed he'd be protected. What am I not getting?
|
|
Colby11
Administrator
Creator of Hell's Kitchen Mafia
Posts: 1,193
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Day 11
Jul 12, 2012 23:58:02 GMT -5
Post by Colby11 on Jul 12, 2012 23:58:02 GMT -5
I can see why Archangel would claim, but at the same time, I wish that they wouldnt have claimed. If scum has two kills, they would target Archangel and Hal, though I think there is only one kill from previous posts.
|
|
Colby11
Administrator
Creator of Hell's Kitchen Mafia
Posts: 1,193
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Day 11
Jul 13, 2012 0:26:26 GMT -5
Post by Colby11 on Jul 13, 2012 0:26:26 GMT -5
And now I need opinions on whether it's better to buy Hal one more night or self-protect myself to end game. It would be best to protect Hal so that he can reveal another player tomorrow, whether they be town or scum
|
|