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Post by lauriern on Jan 19, 2013 8:59:41 GMT -5
NETA: I'm pretty sure that MHaye and GC are on the same team due to their last minute votes that were pretty close together at EOD yesterDay. I think they're CE and voted Pollux (inactive CE) to save an active CE (MHaye).
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Post by patricia on Jan 19, 2013 9:13:42 GMT -5
lauriern - you should get your answer in how LE votes today
unvote texcat
vote mhaye
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Post by wombat99 on Jan 19, 2013 10:21:05 GMT -5
After re-reading toDay's thread, it seems like Crys and Texcat are on the same team - LE. We know (as much as you can *know* in Mafia w/o a death reveal) that Mahaloth, Patricia and Drain are CG. My gut feeling is that Wombat is LG. In a game with low participation, she is active and CE-hunting (or doing a great job at playing Townie). That leaves MHaye, Gnarly Charlie and Red Skeezix on my unknown list. I think there are 2 CE's left. I think they are MHaye and GC. LE, would you like to reveal who the rest of your team are? I'm pretty sure you have one left. I'm pretty sure it's Red. I think we should be lynching either MHaye, GC or Red today and leaning more towards MHaye or GC. We need to lynch CE more than LE at this point. We can win with either CG or LE. We cannot win with CE. We need to find them. Vote: MHaye I can be convinced to GC or Red instead, unless LE identifies them as one of their own. My unknown list matches Laurie's. LE can fill in one more piece of the puzzle than we can there. I am not sure there can be two CE's left, though. Consider the power roles in each faction: We know that we had a CE Strongman, Watcher/Tracker, and Detective 2. So there's at least a Detective 1 out there. And they have their regular NK. How does that compare, balance-wise, to the power roles in the other factions if you add in another CE - even a vanilla? LG had a doc, detective, remorseful vig. LE and CG power roles are still hidden (besides their remorseful vigs). Again, that's a piece of the puzzle that LE can fill in better than others, but we know both teams had two vanillas. On the CG side, Patricia is probably a doc (due to lack of kills) and Drain seems to have some kind of one-shot power that she isn't around to use. I think it makes better sense, from a balance standpoint, that the game started with only 4 CEs. But I could certainly be wrong about that. I think Gnarly is the last LE, based on his and Texcat's both thinking that LG wins when CE is eliminated. (We don't; we win when *either* all E or all C is eliminated). That seems like something that was discussed off-board and everybody came to the wrong conclusion). So, if Gnarly is LE and there is only one more CE, then Red may be LG, and he may be a power role, since he voted to save himself over vanilla Lightfoot. Or, he is also CE, and he took the opportunity to bus MHaye while voting for Lightfoot to save himself.
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Post by gnarlycharlie on Jan 19, 2013 11:19:51 GMT -5
I think Gnarly is the last LE, based on his and Texcat's both thinking that LG wins when CE is eliminated. (We don't; we win when *either* all E or all C is eliminated). That seems like something that was discussed off-board and everybody came to the wrong conclusion). i'm not sure where you're getting this. i read the rules. This game will have four "alignments" - for simplicities sake I'm ripping off AD&D, and the alignments will be called Lawful, Chaotic, Good, and Evil. Each player will have two of those alignments - Good or Evil, and Lawful or Chaotic. Each alignment will have it's own win condition. When that condition is met, everyone that has that alignment will win. Example - if the Chaotic win condition is met first, all Chaotic Good and Chaotic Evil characters will win. Good is diametrically opposed to Evil, and one will win when all players of the other alignment are eliminated. Chaotic is diametrically opposed to Lawful, and one will win when all players of the other alignment are eliminated. i never said that LG needs to eliminate ONLY CE to win. i meant LG cannot win without eliminating CE. LG can then win with either LE or CG. i said that because some players including you kept saying that G must lynch E. i disagreed. i said LG should lynch CE which was what we did.
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Post by lauriern on Jan 19, 2013 11:51:22 GMT -5
After re-reading toDay's thread, it seems like Crys and Texcat are on the same team - LE. We know (as much as you can *know* in Mafia w/o a death reveal) that Mahaloth, Patricia and Drain are CG. My gut feeling is that Wombat is LG. In a game with low participation, she is active and CE-hunting (or doing a great job at playing Townie). That leaves MHaye, Gnarly Charlie and Red Skeezix on my unknown list. I think there are 2 CE's left. I think they are MHaye and GC. LE, would you like to reveal who the rest of your team are? I'm pretty sure you have one left. I'm pretty sure it's Red. I think we should be lynching either MHaye, GC or Red today and leaning more towards MHaye or GC. We need to lynch CE more than LE at this point. We can win with either CG or LE. We cannot win with CE. We need to find them. Vote: MHaye I can be convinced to GC or Red instead, unless LE identifies them as one of their own. My unknown list matches Laurie's. LE can fill in one more piece of the puzzle than we can there. I am not sure there can be two CE's left, though. Consider the power roles in each faction: We know that we had a CE Strongman, Watcher/Tracker, and Detective 2. So there's at least a Detective 1 out there. And they have their regular NK. How does that compare, balance-wise, to the power roles in the other factions if you add in another CE - even a vanilla? LG had a doc, detective, remorseful vig. LE and CG power roles are still hidden (besides their remorseful vigs). Again, that's a piece of the puzzle that LE can fill in better than others, but we know both teams had two vanillas. On the CG side, Patricia is probably a doc (due to lack of kills) and Drain seems to have some kind of one-shot power that she isn't around to use. I think it makes better sense, from a balance standpoint, that the game started with only 4 CEs. But I could certainly be wrong about that. I think Gnarly is the last LE, based on his and Texcat's both thinking that LG wins when CE is eliminated. (We don't; we win when *either* all E or all C is eliminated). That seems like something that was discussed off-board and everybody came to the wrong conclusion). So, if Gnarly is LE and there is only one more CE, then Red may be LG, and he may be a power role, since he voted to save himself over vanilla Lightfoot. Or, he is also CE, and he took the opportunity to bus MHaye while voting for Lightfoot to save himself. I went back and re-checked the numbers and I think you may be right, Wombat. (All the LG, CG, LE, CE are wreaking havoc with my dylexia!) There may only be one more CE and LG may be a little better off than I thought. I thought it was just you and I left. MHaye & GC's votes are still bugging me though. Maybe it was just a coincidence, but two votes 10ish minutes apart at EOD to save a lynch leader pings me......big time. MHaye is still my first choice.
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Post by lauriern on Jan 19, 2013 11:55:57 GMT -5
lauriern - you should get your answer in how LE votes today unvote texcatvote mhayeI was hoping they'd say, but I'm not holding my breath & I agree - their votes should indicate non-LE anyway
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Post by KidVermicious on Jan 19, 2013 21:09:45 GMT -5
Vote count!
MHaye (3): Wombat (17), Laurie (29), Patricia (31) Patricia (1): Texcat (6) Wombat (1) : Crys (19)
The last valid vote was at 7:13 MST this morning, if there are no more valid votes then a 24 hour countdown to EOD will begin at 7:13 tomorrow morning.
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Post by crys on Jan 19, 2013 22:33:05 GMT -5
unvote wombat99
Let's reset the timer shall we?
vote: mhaye
I can also see the case on mhaye, however what is the chance there is only one ce left?
If we go by what we know at the moment.
we have 7 lawful good players dead and having one more would be 8, and 2 more lg would be nine. would only 4 CE be a feasible number?
If we are unsure which direction to take we could almost always just lynch a cg if need be. I see how the remaining ce could be either wombat or mhaye, or maybe both. I am not sure, but I did reset the clock for the timer to give us more time for discussion.
Another reason I did move my vote to mhaye is because he has been more quiet than usual and maybe some pressure may bring him to the discussion.
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Post by KidVermicious on Jan 21, 2013 0:11:38 GMT -5
The countdown has started, EOD will be tomorrow at 8:33 PM MST (-7).
MHaye (3): Wombat (17), Laurie (29), Patricia (31), Crys (37) Patricia (1): Texcat (6)
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Merestil Haye
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Post by Merestil Haye on Jan 21, 2013 9:12:20 GMT -5
Crys, if we start with what we know, then we have this breakdown.
There are ten players left, of which three are known CG, two (yourself and Texcat) are claimed or pretty clearly LE. Of the remaining five, one is LE, and four split between LG and CE. That could be a 2/2 split or a 3/1.
As to "how plausible is four starting CE," the answer is very.
We started with 25 players. We know there were 5 and only 5 CG, so the odds are there were 5 LE. That leaves 15 split between LG and CE. Starting with 5 CE means 10 LG - and that's far too few LG. I believe there may well be only one CE left.
Wombat is my prime suspicion for CE, because she persists on focussing on the fact that I declined to vote Sister Coyote on Saturday night, while ignoring the situation I would have created by voting - namely that I would have made it possible for someone to force the countdown to happen on a Sunday. Given that most players play only on weekdays, a countdown when no-one is here favours CE over LG. I went over this at the time, something that Wombat carefully does not mention.
She also forgets to mention that I did eventually vote for Sister C, ensuring that the countdown happened on a weekday.
For the above deliberate obfuscation, Wombat is my top choice for CE.
Vote: Wombat99
For what it's worth, I believe Red Skeezix is the third LE.
So, my opinion of the factions.
CG: patricia, Mahaloth, Drain Bead
LE; Crys, Wombat99, Red Skeezix
CE; Wombat99
LG; Me
While I believe that Wombat is probably the last CE, I am still open to the possibility that there are two CE, and at this point can't decide between Gnarly or Laurie for that position.
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Merestil Haye
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Post by Merestil Haye on Jan 21, 2013 9:16:14 GMT -5
For my fellow LG, assuming that there are two of you.
The CG faction is by far and away the weakest faction. It has one functioning player - Mahaloth is self-incapacitated and Drain Bead AWOL. LE, by contrast, has three players all with votes.
I'd note also that we (the LG faction) is in the situation we are in in part because of very poor choices by CG.
Consequently, ally with LE if you can.
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Post by crys on Jan 21, 2013 11:07:39 GMT -5
Crys, if we start with what we know, then we have this breakdown. There are ten players left, of which three are known CG, two (yourself and Texcat) are claimed or pretty clearly LE. Of the remaining five, one is LE, and four split between LG and CE. That could be a 2/2 split or a 3/1. As to "how plausible is four starting CE," the answer is very. We started with 25 players. We know there were 5 and only 5 CG, so the odds are there were 5 LE. That leaves 15 split between LG and CE. Starting with 5 CE means 10 LG - and that's far too few LG. I believe there may well be only one CE left. Wombat is my prime suspicion for CE, because she persists on focussing on the fact that I declined to vote Sister Coyote on Saturday night, while ignoring the situation I would have created by voting - namely that I would have made it possible for someone to force the countdown to happen on a Sunday. Given that most players play only on weekdays, a countdown when no-one is here favours CE over LG. I went over this at the time, something that Wombat carefully does not mention. She also forgets to mention that I did eventually vote for Sister C, ensuring that the countdown happened on a weekday. For the above deliberate obfuscation, Wombat is my top choice for CE. Vote: Wombat99 [/color] For what it's worth, I believe Red Skeezix is the third LE. So, my opinion of the factions. CG: patricia, Mahaloth, Drain Bead LE; Crys, Wombat99, Red Skeezix CE; Wombat99 LG; Me While I believe that Wombat is probably the last CE, I am still open to the possibility that there are two CE, and at this point can't decide between Gnarly or Laurie for that position.[/quote] Wombat is not le. That i can assure you Sent from my DROID RAZR using proboards
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Post by texcat on Jan 21, 2013 18:15:34 GMT -5
Well, darn, I was really hoping to kill Patricia toDay. My vote is going to remain on her and I reckon will be back on her again toMorrow. :_{
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Post by KidVermicious on Jan 21, 2013 18:20:34 GMT -5
Prox 4 hours to EOD. Because you freaks insist on making EOD happen while I'm in bed, you will, as usual, be forced to wait for Dusk. Offboards are open at 8:33 PM MST, and no votes will be counted after that time.
MHaye (4): Wombat (17), Laurie (29), Patricia (31), Crys (37) Patricia (1): Texcat (6) Wombat (1): MHaye (39)
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Post by patricia on Jan 21, 2013 22:14:02 GMT -5
Well, darn, I was really hoping to kill Patricia toDay. My vote is going to remain on her and I reckon will be back on her again toMorrow. :_{ of course you were with CG gone you win no matter what happens with LG or CE why don't you have crys nigh kill me? I would rather you go for me over drain anyway as she my team's only hope anyway.
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Post by texcat on Jan 21, 2013 22:30:39 GMT -5
LOL I obviously have little influence with crys and team, or you would be the lynch leader.
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Post by Red Skeezix on Jan 21, 2013 22:39:26 GMT -5
Meh. I think MHaye makes a good argument today. I'll vote for wombat. My gut is telling me CE for him.
vote Wombat
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Post by gnarlycharlie on Jan 22, 2013 4:56:24 GMT -5
EOD has passed. i think it's too late to vote. i'm okay with a Mhaye lynch.
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Post by KidVermicious on Jan 22, 2013 5:22:04 GMT -5
EOD has passed. i think it's too late to vote. Just a bit.
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