|
Post by Captain Klutz on Dec 30, 2013 17:21:37 GMT -5
T disagree that it "increases the price" - folk are free to bid whatever they want, including not bidding. Dividing up the powers makes it much easier for the remaining scum to plan how to play, and to game the split. So scum know that there is a single bidder and it will be a low bid - easy for them to just bid a bit higher and take the powers -- so much like today - we end up with few results However, wins kill still has to kill -- so either it is a 6 in 7 chance of hitting town if a townie is selected; or a 7 in 7 if the scum player is allocated kill. Sure it increases the price. It's basic economics: the more demand, the higher the price. If we agree to not compete then there is only one Town bid. So if Scum decides not to compete then the price is zero. And if Scum does compete then he or she identifies a town player. "scum know that there is a single bidder and it will be a low bid" Who said that it would be a low bid? Each player still decides how big to bid for their one item. If Scum want it, he or she will have to bid. That will confirm that player as Town, and if Scum does not bid enough then Town still gets the power. How much is "enough"? That is what Scum will not know. The main problem with the plan is that it requires that we all agree. Even last Night, some people just ignored the suggestion and did their own thing. That's why I want people to actually discuss it this time, so we know where we stand.
|
|
|
Post by Captain Klutz on Dec 30, 2013 17:32:11 GMT -5
Of course I noticed that conversation. But I'm not in the habit of letting other players dictate my choices. Why should I, as Town, trust any of them? Sure, you don't know which suggestions are honestly motivated and which are Scum motivated. But suggestions can still be evaluated on their merits. If you don't like some idea, then say so. It can then be discussed. It may well be a crap idea, in which case it will be discarded. Or it may be something that's worth trying. But if you refuse to even discuss it, then we will never know.
|
|
|
Post by Captain Klutz on Dec 30, 2013 17:42:04 GMT -5
Scum decided to sacrifice one of their number, to win (nearly) all the bids and die for it. This will give them 2 Scum kills and the other can get Town cred by claiming to have killed Scum. Although that still does not explain why there were only 2 deaths last Night I think you're hearing hoofbeats and assuming zebras. Also, regarding your plan: No. Right now, there is one Scum. By having everyone assume no one else will be bidding on, say, Kill, you're opening the field up for that single Scum to have two Night kills, plus block and any other power they wish to have. This strikes me as a Very Bad Idea. Particularly since, right now, said Scum is unlikely to bid on much of anything, given that there is only one of them and it would be rather foolish to run the risk of death even to drop Town's numbers. Better to let us kill ourselves. You're being a bit inconsistent here. You're saying that Scum will get any power they want, then say that Scum are unlikely to bid. If Scum don't bid then great, we get the powers at no cost. Note that I am NOT saying to just put in a small bid. Force Scum into a difficult position: 1. Don't bid, and let Town get it for nothing 2. Bid low, so Town wins it at low cost and confirms a Townie 3. Bid high, so get the power but confirm a Townie and risk dying themselves We don't discuss how much we are bidding toNight. Let Scum shoot in the dark.
|
|
|
Post by Captain Klutz on Dec 30, 2013 18:03:52 GMT -5
That is hardly my only concern. I don't like the emphasis on figuring out or knowing what people bid, for one thing. Something -- and it's not Lynch the Loud -- bothered me about Captain's plan from yesterday, so I chose to ignore it. Likewise, something I can't quite put my finger on is bothering me about the current plan. Maybe it's just that it feels like Captain's trying to game the system rather than play the game. That, and my usual reticence with having Town announce what they're going to do of a Night. Just lets Scum have that much more information that they don't need if Town's going to win. That said: If we're going with this plan, and if I don't get lynched, I'll bid on Kill and request the person who bids on Block uses it on me. Of course, if the person assigned to bid on Block doesn't block me, all that will mean is that they think someone else is the likely Scum candidate. In fact, go with this plan and if the person blocks me and if there are no Kills tonight, well, that'll prove I'm Scum, right? (Or that the person protecting protected the right person. Or that Scum chose not to act, though that doesn't seem that wise a choice to me with the numbers the way they are. Or some other possibility I'm not seeing just at the moment.) Yes, I am trying to game the system. This setup is crying out for such an approach (it's a pity Sachertorte is not playing - I would like to see what plans he could come up with). Right now we are 7 against 1 and have a unique opportunity to cooperate. That's a good idea for using up the Kill safely. Heck let's put up a specfic example of allocating the powers: Player1 Kill Player2 Player2 Block Player1 Player3 Investigate Player6 AND Track Player7 (so 2 investigations) Player4 Charge Player3 Player5 Protect Player3 (the imvestigator is both Charged and Protected) Player6 Obfuscate Player3 Player7 Watch Player6 Let's see what this does: - uses up the Kill safely (and if no Night kills then pretty well condemns Player1 as Scum) - Player3 gets 2 Charged investigations and is protected Those are 2 big pluses. Of course, one of those players is Scum. What can they do about it? Let's look at them one by one: Player1 - will be revealed as Scum by the lack of Night deaths Player2 - will still want to Block Player1 Player3 - big problem. This needs to go to a likely Town (I suggest BillMc or Mahaloth) Player4 - little impact. Even if they don't Charge Player3, the investigations will still happen Player5 - if Player3 is Nightkilled then Player5 will look very bad Player6 - if they Obfuscate someone else then they will be seen by Player7 Player7 - is being Tracked by Player3 There we are. Feel free to discuss.
|
|
|
Post by Sister Coyote on Dec 30, 2013 19:20:38 GMT -5
You're being a bit inconsistent here. You're saying that Scum will get any power they want, then say that Scum are unlikely to bid. No, I'm saying it opens up the field for Scum to flat out know who's bidding for what. And with the information they already have, they can make educated guesses about how high certain Townies are willing to go for the various powers.
|
|
|
Post by Sister Coyote on Dec 30, 2013 19:23:45 GMT -5
- uses up the Kill safely (and if no Night kills then pretty well condemns Player1 as Scum) OR a smart Scum who isn't assigned to bid on Kill could choose NOT to kill of a night (I think--need to check the rules), thereby setting up Player1 as Scum. Please don't rule this possibility out.
|
|
|
Post by Captain Klutz on Dec 30, 2013 22:19:13 GMT -5
You're being a bit inconsistent here. You're saying that Scum will get any power they want, then say that Scum are unlikely to bid. No, I'm saying it opens up the field for Scum to flat out know who's bidding for what. And with the information they already have, they can make educated guesses about how high certain Townies are willing to go for the various powers. Sure, Scum could make educated guesses. And probably be wrong. I wouldn't like to guess how high the bids might be toNight - so far I have been greatly surprised by the bidding. - uses up the Kill safely (and if no Night kills then pretty well condemns Player1 as Scum) OR a smart Scum who isn't assigned to bid on Kill could choose NOT to kill of a night (I think--need to check the rules), thereby setting up Player1 as Scum. Please don't rule this possibility out. Yes, that is a possibility. But getting the Scum to forego their Night kill is already a bit of a victory in itself. And a no kill Night with lots of investigation results bodes well for the next Day. Although I'm not sure what you mean by "...a smart Scum who isn't assigned to bid on Kill..." - There is only one Scum left. He or she must do all the Scum bidding as well as their Night kill
|
|
|
Post by Captain Klutz on Dec 30, 2013 22:28:41 GMT -5
After her responses, I fell happier about Sister Coyote
Unvote: Sister Coyote
So I'll return to my other main suspect:
Vote: Meeko
Texcat has moved down my suspect list slightly, as she was tracked by BillMc and did nothing (although Obfuscate has not been accounted for, so that could be a false negative)
Silverjan I am still on the fence about. I will wait until she responds to my post #45 in this thread.
|
|
Meeko
FGM
I raccoon it's time to play Mafia
Posts: 2,474
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Meeko on Dec 31, 2013 4:40:54 GMT -5
After her responses, I fell happier about Sister CoyoteUnvote: Sister CoyoteSo I'll return to my other main suspect: Vote: MeekoTexcat has moved down my suspect list slightly, as she was tracked by BillMc and did nothing (although Obfuscate has not been accounted for, so that could be a false negative) Silverjan I am still on the fence about. I will wait until she responds to my post #45 in this thread. After your responses, I feel sadder about you being impartial on the entire distribution of the bidding, your royal highness.
|
|
Meeko
FGM
I raccoon it's time to play Mafia
Posts: 2,474
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Meeko on Dec 31, 2013 4:49:41 GMT -5
Vote: Captain Klutz Unvote: Mahaloth
Who better to game his system, than himself?
|
|
|
Post by Captain Klutz on Dec 31, 2013 7:49:48 GMT -5
Vote: Captain Klutz Unvote: Mahaloth Who better to game his system, than himself? (bleached) I'm gaming it to suit Town. If that's what you mean then I agree. And if you want to contribute, please give your opinion of various players, rather than just making OMGUS votes.
|
|
|
Post by BillMc on Dec 31, 2013 10:12:14 GMT -5
of course, an alternative strategy would be to select a single player to vote/bid everyone else does not vote, so cant bid
|
|
|
Post by Sister Coyote on Dec 31, 2013 12:44:49 GMT -5
Although I'm not sure what you mean by "...a smart Scum who isn't assigned to bid on Kill..." - There is only one Scum left. He or she must do all the Scum bidding as well as their Night kill Right. I should have said "the" smart Scum, not "a" smart Scum. The point stands.
|
|
|
Post by Sister Coyote on Dec 31, 2013 12:46:27 GMT -5
I don't know that I think Meeko is Scum. At the moment, which is a little strange for me and Meeko, I have no read on him at all. That said, right now we're in a position where NO ONE is going to be lynched.
|
|
|
Post by Captain Klutz on Dec 31, 2013 17:13:55 GMT -5
of course, an alternative strategy would be to select a single player to vote/bid everyone else does not vote, so cant bid That's a very good idea, exploiting the rule that anyone without a vote cannot bid. So if we all agree to not vote, except one player, then that one player is guaranteed to win everything they bid for, at no cost. There was an earlier game that was won when Town exploited the rules in an unexpected way. This was another Pleonast game, that had both multi lynch (ie a tie for the vote resulted in multiple lynches) and multi vote. Partway through the game there were some confirmed Townies, so someone came up with a plan: everyone votes for everyone else, except not voting for the confirmed Town. This puts everyone (except the confirmed Town) on the same number of votes so that all of them are lynched, leaving just the confirmed Town for a Town win. And yes, this plan was eventually executed and Town won. So what do people think of BillMc's plan?
|
|
|
Day Three
Dec 31, 2013 17:29:16 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by guiri on Dec 31, 2013 17:29:16 GMT -5
I'm not convinced by SisterCoyote's responses but will consider unvoting to allow a single player to control all bids toNight, maybe Bill?
I like the idea of a single voter, and then a single bidder, to ensure an optimal use of powers at zero risk. Of course everyone else will gain a penalty point but the game should have ended before anyone earns 4 points.
|
|
|
Post by Captain Klutz on Dec 31, 2013 17:50:03 GMT -5
Let's look at something a bit more traditional, a WOW on Meeko:
Day 1
Reply #10 - fluff Reply #28 - joke vote Reply #35 - fluff Reply #78 - objects to being voted for Reply #80 - comments on aspects of the bidding Reply #93 - fluff Reply #97 - fluff Reply #99 - fluff
Night 1
Nothing
Day 2
Reply #16 - reported that he did not bid on Night 1 Reply #27 - fluff Reply #59 - votes for the investigated Scum Reply #85 - comments on Klutz's Night 2 plan Reply #86 - clarifies/corrects an earlier post
Night 1
Nothing
Day 3
Reply #16 - claims to have investigated the Nightkilled Scum Reply #21 - comments on Pleonast's bid acknowledgement PM Reply #37 - gives his investigation result Reply #39 - asks Sister Coyote why she deceived us about her Kill action Reply #41 - explains why he was slow posting his investigation result, and makes an OMGUS vote Reply #68 - is not happy with Captain Klutz Reply #69 - OMGUS vote
On Day 1, the joke vote was left in place and helped lynch Chameleon. The only substantive post (#80) was in response to a direct question
On Day 3 he claimed to have won the Investigate bid. However, no credit for this as he was the last to check in and so could see that no-one else had claimed it.
Overall, a poor voting record and little actual contribution. I'm happy with my Meeko vote.
|
|
|
Day Three
Dec 31, 2013 18:14:41 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by guiri on Dec 31, 2013 18:14:41 GMT -5
I don't think that WOW is indicative of much but I don't object to a Meeko lynch, nothing about his play is screaming Town at me. I struggle to get any sort of a useful read on Meeko, it often feels like he's a non-player posting to the game thread accidentally instead of the spoiled discussion. He'll usually focus on a single issue or player, objecting to a game design element or strategy, OMGUS voting anyone who dares suspect him, but often has good insights into motivations and game mechanics... One of his scum tells was a significant reduction in post volume but I think real life has reduced the time he has for mafia.
BTW, reviewing SisterCoyote, I was reminded of her "question" about Storyteller's inability to take action on Night 1, for someone so quiet in-game and busy in real life, it felt weird that she'd be bothered to ask that question, unless he was an absent scum buddy? Especially since Gnarly was equally absent, neither would have been much use to her as scum buddies.
|
|
Meeko
FGM
I raccoon it's time to play Mafia
Posts: 2,474
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Meeko on Dec 31, 2013 22:16:03 GMT -5
Let's look at something a bit more traditional, a WOW on Meeko: Day 1 Reply #10 - fluff Reply #28 - joke vote Reply #35 - fluff Reply #78 - objects to being voted for Reply #80 - comments on aspects of the bidding Reply #93 - fluff Reply #97 - fluff Reply #99 - fluff Night 1 Nothing Day 2 Reply #16 - reported that he did not bid on Night 1 Reply #27 - fluff Reply #59 - votes for the investigated Scum Reply #85 - comments on Klutz's Night 2 plan Reply #86 - clarifies/corrects an earlier post Night 1 Nothing Day 3 Reply #16 - claims to have investigated the Nightkilled Scum Reply #21 - comments on Pleonast's bid acknowledgement PM Reply #37 - gives his investigation result Reply #39 - asks Sister Coyote why she deceived us about her Kill action Reply #41 - explains why he was slow posting his investigation result, and makes an OMGUS vote Reply #68 - is not happy with Captain Klutz Reply #69 - OMGUS vote On Day 1, the joke vote was left in place and helped lynch Chameleon. The only substantive post (#80) was in response to a direct question On Day 3 he claimed to have won the Investigate bid. However, no credit for this as he was the last to check in and so could see that no-one else had claimed it. Overall, a poor voting record and little actual contribution. I'm happy with my Meeko vote. Ah. I see. You haven't played Mafia with me before. You're forgiven.
|
|
|
Post by texcat on Dec 31, 2013 23:09:25 GMT -5
I am Town, I was shooting for Scum, and I had one of those "Gnarly's play isn't sitting right with me but I can't quite articulate why" gut feelings. I tried to kill him on Night One, too, but I was outbid. Vote: SisCFor two Days you had suspicions about Gnarly that you never said anything about? And you never voted on?
|
|
|
Post by Captain Klutz on Jan 1, 2014 23:45:25 GMT -5
A full day since the last post. I suppose Christmas/New Year is a tough time for people.
Makes it difficult to discuss Bill's plan. I am happy to unvote if there is a sudden rush of people willing to give it a try.
|
|
Meeko
FGM
I raccoon it's time to play Mafia
Posts: 2,474
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Meeko on Jan 2, 2014 0:56:28 GMT -5
A full day since the last post. I suppose Christmas/New Year is a tough time for people. Makes it difficult to discuss Bill's plan. I am happy to unvote if there is a sudden rush of people willing to give it a try. So you are voting me, based on the actions of others?
|
|
|
Post by Captain Klutz on Jan 2, 2014 1:29:47 GMT -5
So you are voting me, based on the actions of others? Ummm, what? I am voting you because of your actions. And inactions.
|
|
|
Post by Silver Jan on Jan 2, 2014 1:32:59 GMT -5
I will go along with the plan toDay but with reservations, I feel as if Captain Klutz has just taken control of the game and the rest of us have to follow along like good little sheep. I haven't got a better plan though. I bid the other Night because I wanted to, it was fun.
OOG, Chritmas and New Year have been much fun for me me, my son left for UK on Christmas Day and my husbands uncle died on the 30th, been a bit tough /OOG
|
|
|
Post by Captain Klutz on Jan 2, 2014 3:30:28 GMT -5
I will go along with the plan toDay but with reservations, I feel as if Captain Klutz has just taken control of the game and the rest of us have to follow along like good little sheep. I haven't got a better plan though. I bid the other Night because I wanted to, it was fun. OOG, Chritmas and New Year have been much fun for me me, my son left for UK on Christmas Day and my husbands uncle died on the 30th, been a bit tough /OOG We can't do it unless we all agree. I am trying to get people to actually say whether they would like to try it. I think it is very unlikely that we actually get agreement, or even discussion. Some people have posted since the plan was mooted, without commenting. Perhaps they think that if they just ignore it, it will go away. Well, it will, as we can't do it unless we all agree. Note incidentally that this is BillMc's plan, not my plan. And despite what anyone thinks of our motivations, we can't both be Scum.
|
|
|
Day Three
Jan 2, 2014 8:35:39 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by guiri on Jan 2, 2014 8:35:39 GMT -5
I think there's just over six hours left in the Day. It appears that CaptainKlutz, SilverJan and I are on board with the suggestion.
@TexCat, Meeko, BillMc, Mahaloth, and SisterCoyote, are you on board with the suggestion or not?
Right now SisterCoyote is in the lead by a single vote and could easily switch her vote to force a no-lynch (which wouldn't be a bad thing unless she's Town and we lynch her toMorrow).
|
|
|
Post by Captain Klutz on Jan 2, 2014 8:46:01 GMT -5
For me, Day ends at 7am and so I may miss the end of Day.
Just in case (by some miracle) we do get everyone on board, I will
Unvote Meeko
|
|
|
Post by Captain Klutz on Jan 2, 2014 9:06:56 GMT -5
I would like to mention that Bill's plan does allow for a guaranteed Town victory, even if Bill is Scum:
After toDays lynch we are at 7 players
ToNight Bill investigates someone and kills someone.
That leaves us with 5 players with a confirmed Townie (or a Scum, in which case we win)
Next Day that confirmed Townie is the only one to vote, lynching another player
That Night there is another investigation and kill. That reduces to just 3 players, either 2 confirmed Town (so the other is Scum) or an investigated Scum.
Next Day Scum is lynched for a Town win.
If Town does this, Scum can only interfere by voting. Which exposes them.
I have suspicion that Auction Mafia will not be rerun in its current form...
Okay, now I am off to bed.
|
|
|
Post by texcat on Jan 2, 2014 11:00:48 GMT -5
No, I am not comfortable with the plan of having BillMc being our only voter. He has not even voted yet. I don't know that he will show up to vote. And if he shows up I don't know who he'll vote for.
|
|
|
Post by BillMc on Jan 2, 2014 12:13:48 GMT -5
Vote: Texcat
As Klutz has pointed out, it is pretty much a forgone conclusion that it is a town win with this strategy.
|
|