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Post by storyteller0910 on Feb 6, 2014 10:24:42 GMT -5
As for the investigation, I would really prefer that it not be me. As I said before, my role is unlikely to be useful, but is nearly guaranteed not to be useful if it is revealed.
Anti-ivestigate Storyteller
investigate Meeko
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Post by Pleonast on Feb 6, 2014 11:39:14 GMT -5
1. Please reread my victory condition again. I only need one of the three players alive. Since the moderator told me I have no alignment knowledge about any of those players, I see no reason to assume they're all town. 2. And as for "scum cannot safely claim one of them" that's exactly why I'm keeping them secret for now. I think scum will want to avoid claiming a nationality on my list, so I'm not going to let them know what they are. (numbers added) 1. You only need one of them alive. Suppose 1 of them is indeed scum. The other 2 die, and now you are unable to win, as you need that last one both alive and dead. No, that does not sound plausible. 2. You have just said that being on your list does not indicate alignment, so why will scum want to avoid claiming one of the nationalities? Sorry, I don't believe you. 1. Well, duh? Most of you seem to need another player dead and if they're not you lose. I happen to need one of several players alive, and if they're not I lose. This game is designed to be harder to win. 2. Because I expect that not everyone on my list is town. If I can confirm two on the list, I'm willing to bet the other is scum. I'm not sure why you're so certain that my list has to be non-scum. That's even less likely than that all the extra wincon targets are town. If I knew they were all non-scum, I'd have claimed on Day One and we'd have a bloc of half-masons. I've come up with a way for all of us (except scum) to win. If the third party win condition is true then we want to get to an endgame of 3 town and 1 scum, then lynch that last scum. For this to happen we need to be sure of who the scum are. If we have 2 scum left then I believe they are Suburban Plankton and Pleonast. If there is a third scum then I think that's storyteller. We have 2 roleblockers, so tonight we can completely block the scum. That is, we lynch Suburban Plankton, then tonight Meeko blocks Pleonast and Chameleon blocks storyteller. This should eliminate the Night kill. Indeed, eliminate all future Night kills. This gives time to do my Nightly investigation, to precisely pin down the remaining scum. The daily investigation may also help - I suggest keep investigating storyteller, to see if it eventually reveals alignment During the Day we can either vote No Lynch (although I'm not sure if that's allowed) or lynch someone who someone needs dead. Or a scum if we do indeed find that there are 2 left. For the final endgame we need to have Meeko (to keep blocking the last scum) and 2 others. I don't know who the other 2 will be, but they will NOT be: me (Colby's target) Silver Jan (Swammerdami's target) Paranoia or Chameleon (the third parties must be dead, to guard against them actually being win stealers) I think that looks pretty solid. Anyway, we can re-evaluate after we see what happens toNight. It's a clever plan, but it depends on knowing who is scum. You need to keep a known scum alive, not our best guess. I say "you" because I pretty much have to be against the plan, since it screws me unless one on my list makes it to the end. I'm not very confident in your investigation power, though. It also depends on your blockers working. What happens if two blockers block each other? Pleonast's record was mixed on Day Three. His voting was pretty pro-Town (or at least anti-Scum), and the things that made me suspicious of him involved readings of roles and situations that seemed implausible to me, but could, theoretically, be a result of skimming or just different thought processes. I'm definitely skimming this game because I'm concurrently running an extremely complex game over on Giraffe. But you should already know I approach mafia from a different angle than most players. And I'm frequently lynched over it, too. Fortunately, I don't need to be alive at the end of the game for me to win, just someone else.
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Post by storyteller0910 on Feb 6, 2014 11:52:39 GMT -5
@pleo, don't answer this if you feel it'd be problematic, but I am curious whether any, all, or none of your targets have been identified as "to-kill" targets by other players.
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Post by FruitAndGarbage on Feb 6, 2014 13:26:38 GMT -5
The day's end will be pushed back about three hours, as I got called in to work. I'll try to get the night up afterwards.
Votes: Suburban Plankton [4]: Swammerdami (15), Paranoia (16), Captain Klutz (51), Pleonast (89) Pleonast [2]: Storyteller0910 (37), Silver Jan (48), Colby11 (55), Swammerdami (-56) Colby11 [1]: Swammerdami (5), Chameleon (8) Captain Klutz [1]: Meeko (29) Silver Jan [1]: Pleonast (32) Paranoia [0]: Captain Klutz (1)
Investigations: Storyteller0910 [2]: Captain Klutz (65), Swammerdami (80), Silver Jan (84), Storyteller0910 (-90) Meeko [2]: Captain Klutz (28), Pleonast (32), Storyteller0910 (90) Suburban Plankton [0]: Swammerdami (5) Swammerdami [0]: Chameleon (8), Colby11 (55), Captain Klutz (-79), Swammerdami (-80) Pleonast [0]: Captain Klutz (51), Swammerdami (56)
With these votes, Suburban Plankton will be lynched and no player will be investigated. Day four ends in 12 hours.
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Post by storyteller0910 on Feb 6, 2014 13:40:32 GMT -5
Is anybody there? If no one is willing to uninvestigate me, I will remove my anti-investigation vote on myself prior to the deadline to ensure that someone is investigated. I nonetheless think it'd be better if it weren't me.
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Post by swammerdami on Feb 6, 2014 13:51:18 GMT -5
I'll respect your wish, Story.
Uninvestigate Storyteller
Anti-investigate Storyteller
Investigate Colby11
As to my "gambit" of unvoting Patricia, it was just that. I hadn't suddenly decided she was innocent (though I wasn't sure of her guilt), but felt that bandwagon would leave us with a useless voting record. By making the Lynch uncertain, I hoped Scum might show their hand. Immediately after my unvote, Pleonast wrote "I'm beginning to have doubts about patricia being scum"; but later he antivoted Meeko.
The Lynch vote was very close when I woke up next day in time to move my vote; since I often sleep in, my "gambit" was slightly daredevil. My excuse? I did the gambit while on ethanol.
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Post by Silver Jan on Feb 6, 2014 14:07:05 GMT -5
I didn't see the point of investigating story anyway so
Uninvestigate Story
and I will go with the crowd and
<unvote>Pleonast</unvote>
<vote>Suburban Plankton</vote>
and do what I REALLY think needs to be done
Investigate Pleonast
These are the 2 that I really think are scum.
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Post by Silver Jan on Feb 6, 2014 14:09:53 GMT -5
Crap
Unvote: Pleonast
Vote: Suburban Plankton
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Post by Pleonast on Feb 6, 2014 14:36:33 GMT -5
@pleo, don't answer this if you feel it'd be problematic, but I am curious whether any, all, or none of your targets have been identified as "to-kill" targets by other players. Sorry, I haven't been keeping track of kill targets. I have been keeping track of nationalities: BillMc Danish guiri English Sister Coyote Russian Mahaloth Norwegian texcat Indian gnarlycharlie Greek storyteller0910 West German swammerdami Belgian patricia Ukrainian dizzymrslizzy Georgian I'll let someone else cross-reference that with kill targets.
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Colby11
Administrator
Creator of Hell's Kitchen Mafia
Posts: 1,193
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
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Post by Colby11 on Feb 6, 2014 15:40:15 GMT -5
Uninvestigate Swammerdami Investigate Colby11 Antiinvestigate Meeko
I got nothing to hide. Investigate me!
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Post by Pleonast on Feb 6, 2014 16:27:12 GMT -5
Uninvestigate SwammerdamiInvestigate Colby11Antiinvestigate MeekoI got nothing to hide. Investigate me! That's not a bad idea. uninvestigate Meekoinvestigate Pleonastanti-investigate Colby11By the way, has everyone made a claim about having an extra victory condition or not? And what that condition is if they do?
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Post by Captain Klutz on Feb 6, 2014 19:19:09 GMT -5
Klutz, it's not at all clear to me why you are suspicious of me, nor indeed why you have chosen any of the three players you have decided are Scum. I am always a bit skeptical of folks who think they have the game solved and propose action plans on the basis of the solving, and this case is no different. I am disinclined to follow your lead without better reasoning (especially since I know you're wrong about me!). Storyteller, I am suspicious of you over the issue of the targets. It seemed clear that the targets of town players represented a group of people that were likely town (see my Day 2 posts #79 and #86). So having everyone reveal their targets looked like a good move. Some people were agreeable, most just ignored the proposal (which wasn't very helpful). Your response was a bit curious: Day 2, Reply #96 "Captain Klutz, the other problem with your plan is that it does appear that some players may start as one alignment and later convert to another. So it might not confirm as many as we might hope." This is a bit of a wishy washy response. It doesn't support or oppose the idea, it just says that it may not be 100%. Well, very few things are 100%, but anything that can improve our odds is worth doing. In Reply #114 I did respond to this, saying that "more likely town than scum" is still an improvement over "unknown". But this did not get a response. I'll ask you now: do you agree that "more likely town than scum" is an improvement over "unknown"? As the game has continued it has become more apparent that this targeting stuff is exclusive to town. Guiri (who could switch sides) didn't have one, patricia (scum) claimed to have a target but seems to have been lying, as she claimed a duplicate target. The third party players have denied having targets. Suburban Plankton did not have a target and he is looking likely to be scum. Pleonast, the other main suspect, also does not have a target. Having it exclusive to town is game breaking, so it is plausible that there is at least one scum among the targets. So yes, any of us could still be scum. Some people think that, by coming forward first, storyteller can't be scum, as he wouldn't know that townies also had targets. I believe it is entirely plausible that the lone scum included in this targeting business would be told that townies are also gunning for other townies and that there's a townie gunning for him.
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Post by Captain Klutz on Feb 6, 2014 19:20:49 GMT -5
Storyteller is anxious not be investigated. There is a very good chance that an investigation would reveal his role. If he actually is the scum role blocker then having his role revealed would be damning. But he really wants to avoid telling scum his role, on the basis that "my role is unlikely to be useful, but is nearly guaranteed not to be useful if it is revealed."
Well, if it's "unlikely to be useful" then it's no great loss. However, if it reveals a role blocker (or alignment, for that matter), then that's huge. So there looks to be a very big upside and a very low downside. So I would still prefer to investigate storyteller.
I think Colby is a poor investigation target today. He has already been investigated by the role-cop and the alignment-cop. He has also revealed his name and nationality, so I'm not seeing want people are after. Pretty well anyone else is a better choice. I'll probably switch to Pleonast if there is no support for a storyteller investigation.
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Post by Captain Klutz on Feb 6, 2014 19:23:56 GMT -5
Klutz, it's not at all clear to me why you are suspicious of me, nor indeed why you have chosen any of the three players you have decided are Scum. I am always a bit skeptical of folks who think they have the game solved and propose action plans on the basis of the solving, and this case is no different. I am disinclined to follow your lead without better reasoning (especially since I know you're wrong about me!). (quoting the same post to respond to another part of it) They were identified by a process of elimination. There are 10 remaining players: Colby Paranoia Meeko Pleonast Chameleon Suburban Plankton Captain Klutz Silver Jan Swammerdami storyteller Colby and Meeko I have decided are town, as I explained in Reply #50. Further eliminating myself and the 2 third parties leaves just Suburban Plankton Pleonast storyteller Silver Jan Swammerdami That's a pretty small scum pool. I have a town lean on Silver Jan and Swammerdami. That just leaves 3 players. So I want to lynch one of them toDay, and have the other 2 blocked toNight. If that happens and there is still a kill toNight then I'll need to re-evaluate.
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Post by storyteller0910 on Feb 6, 2014 20:58:30 GMT -5
I'm not really sure how much time is left in the Day. I hope I will not find that I post this after Dusk. In any case:
1. Overall, I think the problem is that you have decided that things are a certain way, and you are filtering everything through that preconception. I have no idea how many things you've gotten wrong, but I know that you've gotten my alignment wrong. So you read my reluctance to be investigated through your filter, in which I am already Scum, and come up with the Scum role-blocker premise… which is no more reasonable than the (true) explanation I've given for that reluctance. (I should note that I am probably guilty of the same thing to an extent; I've decided that you are very likely Town and am filtering everything you say and do through that preconception. But I think I have better evidence than you do :-)
2. On the targets, I simply… don't agree with you. I think that if the game has been designed such that mass reveal of targets would afford any meaningful benefit to Town, then the game is not balanced. While this is possible, I don't think we should bet on it. And look - you can already tell that it's problematic as a strategy: here you are on the one hand arguing that I am possibly Scum because I was not supportive of the "reveal targets plan," which ostensibly would work because people with targets and people who were targets were more likely Town… and on the other hand arguing that i might be Scum in spite of the fact that I both have a unique target and WAS a unique target. So no, I wasn't much on board with your plan. I've now revealed because at this point, there's not much point keeping it secret anymore.
3. Your plan to kill one of your suspects and block the other two has a very significant flaw, one that can be cheerfully exploited by Scum if you have guessed wrong about your pool. I'll leave it as an exercise to the reader to see what that would be.
4. DId a Role Cop actually identify Colby as a Doctor? I think I missed that.
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Post by Captain Klutz on Feb 6, 2014 21:29:29 GMT -5
Storyteller, thanks for your responses.
First, I believe Day end is in about 4.5 hours, so there's still a bit of time.
Now, on to he other stuff:
1. Yes, I can get a bit of a bee in my bonnet. And be a bit (or a lot) wrong. In this case I am confident about Colby and Meeko and happy with the claimed third parties. That really does narrow things down. A lot. But we'll have a better idea after toNight.
2. So far, everyone who has been a target has been town. Everyone who has claimed a (credible) target has been town (patricia looks very much like she lied). Guiri, who could change sides, has not been claimed as a target. So it really does look like it is all town on town. Of course, that is game breaking, so there should be a non town somewhere in there. I have repeatedly said this, so my thinking that you are scum is not inconsistent.
3. Yes, if I have guessed wrong about the scum then the real scum can exploit a specification of who blocks who. Assuming that Suburban Plankton is indeed scum, there would not be more than 2 other scum, so 2 role blockers for 2 scum looked solid. My suggestion of targets was to ensure that the 2 role blockers did not target the same player. Meeko still hasn't checked in, so I don't know what he thinks of it.
4. At the end of Day 2, gnarlycharlie was revealed as having visited Colby. Gnarlycharlie stated that Colby was truthful. Gnarly has since been revealed as a role cop.
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Post by Captain Klutz on Feb 6, 2014 23:55:21 GMT -5
I'll just add a clarification: I don't believe that storyteller is necessarily scum, that it depends on the number of scum remaining. Here is what I said in Reply #72: "If we have 2 scum left then I believe they are Suburban Plankton and Pleonast. If there is a third scum then I think that's storyteller."
Mind you, if Suburban Plankton flips town, all bets are off.
As for investigations, I believe Pleonast is in the lead by 1 vote. I'm happy with that investigation.
Uninvestigate: storyteller
Investigate: Pleonast
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Post by swammerdami on Feb 7, 2014 0:53:47 GMT -5
The day's end will be pushed back about three hours... I assume this means "the Day will still end at 8 PM PST, but results will not be posted until about 11 PM." Either way, if another last-minute "gambit" is called for, I don't know what it it.
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Post by FruitAndGarbage on Feb 7, 2014 3:57:10 GMT -5
So, my neck of the woods got hit pretty hard by the BIG OL' STORM and let me tell you, fishtailing across the road in the dark is WAY less fun than spinning out in the daytime. I'm exhausted and had an awful day; you get results now, but I'm going to have to edit flavor in later.
Stay safe to everyone else who's caught in this nasty winter (especially those of you like me who have never had to deal with it before!).
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