|
Post by zuma on Dec 3, 2007 5:36:07 GMT -5
I'm still incredibly hung over and can't really think right now, but I'm reading what little there is. After attempting to actually see Blade Runner in the theater Friday night, it was sold out. I saw "No Country For Old Men" instead. Then I made a point not to post drunk Saturday
|
|
|
Post by zuma on Dec 3, 2007 5:42:50 GMT -5
[quote author=dotchan board=gameplay thread=1196528096 post=1196646749[/quote]
Assuming for the moment that the Cop's result is honest, we ask Pleo to put a bomb on A. If A doesn't go kaboom the way Pleo has claimed, then we know he is lying. quote]
And what do we do when the bomb goes off? We watch it go boom? Pleo's alignment cannot be determined. His role-claim says nothing to his alignment. I can see a scum bomb-planter just as easily as I can see a town bomb-planter.
|
|
|
Post by zuma on Dec 3, 2007 6:15:06 GMT -5
I will again vote: Pleonast for his "I will not clear anyone unless they vote for a confirmed colonist, and I'm not a confirmed colonist so I'll be investigating them" craziness. Same reasons as yesterday.
Plus I am not a fan of his amended role-claim after NAF claimed that scum are resistant to night-kills. "Oh yeah, my bomb is gauranteed, sorry for not mentioning that!"
Persons of interest:
Everyone who voted Diomedes the morning of his lynch before he had a chance to role-claim. After many of us expressed distress over lynching someone in the final hours:
episodeofblonde Along with Cookies lynched both zuma1 and Diomedes
DeathbyIrony voted in the final hours for someone with no role-claim
And ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies for trying to take a vote away from Santo Rugger. We can WIFOM and I can see you as scum trying to make a colonist not vote. And your "Santo will tell us who he would vote for" is ridiculous. If Santo were scum he could just lie. We cannot judge him without an actual vote. Plus you have a shady voting history.
|
|
|
Post by zuma on Dec 3, 2007 6:23:32 GMT -5
I remove episodeofblonde from my Peron Of Interest list, as I got her confused with DeathByIrony. DeathByIrony was the one who voted for both dead colonists. Sorry episodeofblonde
|
|
|
Post by Pollux Oil on Dec 3, 2007 9:43:02 GMT -5
Why is it strange? Vanillas will constitute most of the town. I guess you're right, but I just find it odd that there are so many vanilla and only vanilla deaths so quickly, especially if there is more than one killing faction/role/whatever. It's good that mostly vanillas are being killed so we don't lose power roles, though. I won't respond to Parzival's lengthy analysis about me unless there's a specific question for me in it that I missed or somebody else has a question, 'cause to me it came across as "here's his posts, he could be scum or he could be a really helpful townie, do with it what you will." I will give my suspect list of two: Death By Irony and zeriel. (This is, of course, coming from the guy who's suspect list of two yesterday was Diomedes and mhaye, so yeah.) Zeriel I find suspicious for his actions at the end of the Day: -He comes in and says he'll vote later, which several people jump on considering it's a bad idea since there's only a few hours left in the Day. -Claims he thought he had another full day as his excuse. -Pointedly doesn't vote, but if he would vote, he'd vote for Diomedes. Now he'd been mentioning Diomedes since earlier in the Day as suspicious, why didn't he vote? As for Death By Irony: -Votes zuma with the reason "he gave me a headache" -Unvotes zuma since he hasn't spoken since his drunk voting, then revotes zuma without giving any clearer ideas as to why she's voting him. -Votes Diomedes because she "doesn't see a point in voting for anybody other than one of the two vote leaders" and she finds Diomedes more suspicious than Pleonast, although she does mention Diomedes' 'magic bag' as being anti-town. To summarize: I find her voting behavior suspicious because she gives very few actual reasons for her voting. Also, I found her vote on Diomedes to be very bandwagonny-feeling. Finally, toDay: Let's say sometime down the road a Cop comes forward and says: "I'm a Cop, I've got a guilty on A." Assuming for the moment that the Cop's result is honest, we ask Pleo to put a bomb on A. If A doesn't go kaboom the way Pleo has claimed, then we know he is lying. (This is obviously an over simplification, but maybe someone smarter than me can work out a plan that could verify Pleo's role and get rid of a scumbag in a way that is free of scum interference.) So a Cop comes out with the fact that person A is scum...we wait two whole Days just to verify Pleonast's role and towniness instead of lynching a scum that Day? That's just all kinds of not good for the town. For now, I will Vote Death By Irony, but I could easily be persuaded to switch my vote to zeriel if the town finds him more scummy. I wish there was more for me to go on. We've only got two and a half days left of this Day, so hopefully more people will have some analysis.
|
|
|
Post by zuma on Dec 3, 2007 10:15:29 GMT -5
There is a whole lot of bullshit on day 1 and 2. Lots of suspicious votes to end the day, and they ended it with townies going down.
|
|
Death By Irony
FGM
The Former Mandate of Heaven/Current Gastard Night Mod
I'm my own mind-altering substance!
Posts: 109
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Death By Irony on Dec 3, 2007 10:16:47 GMT -5
Whatever else the color may or may not mean, last Night's results seem to lend credence to NAF's claim about Replicant resistance (or it could mean something about power roles, but until we know more I'll leave my speculation there). I seem to remember somebody floating the idea of testing Pleo's claim if a Cop ever decides to claim and share his/her results--would this be a good plan even if Pleo was Pro-Colony? This just pinged me as odd. Because that was NOT the first thing I thought of when I saw the night's results.... Why would you assume that the REPLICANTS were the one's saved last night and not the Townies? Just... odd phrasing.
|
|
|
Post by zuma on Dec 3, 2007 10:19:37 GMT -5
Kassia earns her place on my suspicion list too, for placing that third vote. zuma1 died for pointing out that the third vote thing, actually, well, worked.
|
|
|
Post by Pleonast on Dec 3, 2007 10:20:39 GMT -5
This week is likely to be very busy for me. Expect my posting volume to go down. Thank you, Parzival, for the analysis. I definitely want to take look at zeriel. I will again vote: Pleonast for his "I will not clear anyone unless they vote for a confirmed colonist, and I'm not a confirmed colonist so I'll be investigating them" craziness. Same reasons as yesterday. Plus I am not a fan of his amended role-claim after NAF claimed that scum are resistant to night-kills. "Oh yeah, my bomb is gauranteed, sorry for not mentioning that!" ((color removed)) I stated my plan (look at those not voting for confirmed Colonists) and then acted on it (using the fact that I am not a confirmed Colonist). I used a simple and straight-forward tactic, using information available to everyone. If I used info only I have, it wouldn't be transparent. I paraphrased my PM in my role claim. I had no reason to believe having a "certain" kill was special. So I phrased it out. It'd be incriminating if I had stated I was certain to kill--knowing that Replicants are resistant to being killed seems to have been privileged information. It wouldn't surprise me if only Replicants and NAF knew that. zuma's quick jump on me seems like a scummy ploy to keep the Colony's focus on me for yet another Day.
|
|
|
Post by zuma on Dec 3, 2007 10:28:31 GMT -5
I accept your suspicion, Pleo, because you are not confirmed town, even to yourself.
|
|
|
Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Dec 3, 2007 10:50:10 GMT -5
zuma1 died for pointing out that the third vote thing, actually, well, worked. How so? Do you really think that is the primary/root of all of the votes that killed zuma1?
|
|
|
Post by Tragic on Dec 3, 2007 10:51:33 GMT -5
Ok! I'm back.. and only 2 pages to sift through.. part of me is thankful and the other part is dissapointed. I suppose that's how weekends are though! Sorry to see mhaye leave! Peace be with your soul. But on the 'good' side there was only one kill during the Night and that makes me feel a little more comfortable. If there were 3 each time I'd start to get worried. The actual design of this game (as mentioned by atarus and drainbead) is absolutely confusing. I can hardly handle straight forward vanilla Mafia and now I'm being throw for a huge curveball. People were looking a little at zeriel yesterDay.. and now Pervizel brings her up again. I suppose this does need a little more insight but I don't want to get caught up on just 1 person again like we did yesterday. We focused on Pleo and then as the deadline loomed we branched out and quickly decided on Dio. It feels like we're pushing for some of these discussions when they really should be a lot more natural. But with the limited posts to work with I guess it's getting hard to really pick up a fair assessment of someone else. At this rate either the scum are running circles around us or are sitting back and lounging with half of the cast! How frustrating is that?
|
|
|
Post by sinjin on Dec 3, 2007 11:06:33 GMT -5
I am again voting for Pleo for all of the reasons I posted yesterday and also because of his non-response response to my reasons for voting him:
Pleo:
Me:
Pleo:
And you carefully ignored what I said about how colonists vote. So to make it clearer: "Essentially random" is not how colonists vote. We vote based on what people say and how they say it. However we cast our votes blindly because we don't know who is who.
Me:
Pleo:
I did not misunderstand what you said. You used a general mafia game meme "they tend to receive a lot of heat" to explain your actions in a specific mafia game about three specific high posters two of whom did not receive any heat at all on day one. That is what makes your argument specious. If you had stated "they all received a lot of heat" I would have called you a liar.
But mostly for the mobius strip reasoning where-in he is not a "confirmed colonist" to himself which continues toDay:
Vote:Pleonast
|
|
|
Post by sinjin on Dec 3, 2007 11:43:54 GMT -5
Persons of interest:Everyone who voted Diomedes the morning of his lynch before he had a chance to role-claim. After many of us expressed distress over lynching someone in the final hours: Dio had plenty of time to role-claim or even check in and post during the 4-5 days of Day two. He did not. For the record you also had time to come in and defend yourself and role-claim Day one. The last time you posted on Day one you were very close to a three-way tie for lynchee. It is unfortunate that neither you nor Dio were available at the critical times. Are you actually suggesting that we implement a stay of execution if someone doesn't show up, defend themselves and role claim. Isn't that basically giving the game to lurking scum? No, zuma1 died for voting erratically, jumping on someone who placed a third vote when the top three votees had two votes on them after calling emphatically for people to vote, and not role-claiming or defending himself when he was tied for a place in the chair with someone who had claimed a town power role*. In addition, the third vote thing will be proven to have worked if and only if kassia turns out to be a replicant. *A claim which I don't believe anymore as posted previously.
|
|
|
Post by Pleonast on Dec 3, 2007 11:56:57 GMT -5
And you carefully ignored what I said about how colonists vote. So to make it clearer: "Essentially random" is not how colonists vote. We vote based on what people say and how they say it. However we cast our votes blindly because we don't know who is who. How is "blindly" different from "essentially random"? I don't see a difference. I did not misunderstand what you said. You used a general mafia game meme "they tend to receive a lot of heat" to explain your actions in a specific mafia game about three specific high posters two of whom did not receive any heat at all on day one. That is what makes your argument specious. If you had stated "they all received a lot of heat" I would have called you a liar. So what is the problem? I'm not allowed to use a rule of thumb? But mostly for the mobius strip reasoning where-in he is not a " confirmed colonist" to himself which continues toDay: And now you throw suspicion on me for defending myself. I suppose you'll next argue that me trying to refute your previous points is also suspicious. ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Get out of your ruts, people. Obviously some of you don't like my lines of thought, but that doesn't mean we're on different sides. I'm tempted to advocate my own electrocution just to get the Colony to open up its thinking. But that would likely start witch hunts against those piling on me--and I don't think they're scum, merely misguided Colonists. Disagreements don't give you any information about alignment. We need to play smarter than that.
|
|
|
Post by NAF1138 on Dec 3, 2007 12:07:34 GMT -5
Hi, I am here. I am reading the thread now. I don't know what kind of time I will have to post toDay. Work is going to be hellish for the next three weeks and my posting volume is going to drop.
But I promise to make time to keep up with the game. I am not going anywhere, I am just going to be posting less.
|
|
|
Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Dec 3, 2007 12:09:30 GMT -5
Disagreements don't give you any information about alignment. We need to play smarter than that. As a rule of thumb, this one sucks. I interpret this as saying that disagreements should be ignored as potential data, which goes back to yet another "mechanic action=bad" scenario, imho. No disagreement that we need to play smarter, though. Myself included. My vote history does not expose the manipulations of a scum, but a lack of bearings and my best guesses with the information available.
|
|
|
Post by episodeofblonde on Dec 3, 2007 12:26:43 GMT -5
I remove episodeofblonde from my Peron Of Interest list, as I got her confused with DeathByIrony. DeathByIrony was the one who voted for both dead colonists. Sorry episodeofblondeNo worries, zuma2. And thanks, Parzival, for the very interesting analysis. Based on this, and a gut feeling of uneasiness with his play, I will FoS Zeriel (also a mild FoS to Death By Irony for some weirdnesses as have been mentioned). I see the Pleo train has started up once again... this tunnel vision is perhaps not hugely productive. I reserve judgement on how much we can gain from analysing the colour text until we here from story. In principle I don't think it's a fantastic idea and can lead to blind spots, but perhaps this game is different.
|
|
|
Post by Zeriel on Dec 3, 2007 12:34:34 GMT -5
Tragic, I'm a dude. =P
Anything else I have to say will be waiting on Storyteller to answer my question.
|
|
|
Post by storyteller0910 on Dec 3, 2007 12:35:32 GMT -5
Hi, folks -
With regard to the color: without reference to the present question, all I will say is that the color text is written very specifically for each situation. Take from it, or don't, as you will.
Also, I'm going to sub out Hal Briston and Yattara, having had no response so far to any of my prompts. Their replacements should be available within a few hours. Thanks!
|
|
|
Post by storyteller0910 on Dec 3, 2007 12:47:02 GMT -5
Double-posting to state:
The replacement for Hal Briston will be everyone's favorite formerly deceased feline, CatinaSuit, who has been enthusiastically talking to himself in the non-spoiler forum for a good bit now. I'll update the player list presently.
|
|
|
Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Dec 3, 2007 12:48:49 GMT -5
Talking to himself, eh? All of the nuts roll downhill to New Canaan...
|
|
|
Post by sinjin on Dec 3, 2007 13:08:26 GMT -5
For me voting based on analyzing what people say and how they say it while not knowing if they are replicants or colonists (i.e. blindly) is not the same as "essentially random" voting, YMOV.
The problem is that in this specific case Rugger and Roosh don't follow the rule of thumb. They posted a lot and didn't get any heat. So using that rule of thumb to rule them out doesn't make any sense.
That's all I'm going to say about this vote so I don't distract others from their contemplations. If a better candidate comes up I reserve the right to change my vote as episodeofblonde says.
|
|
|
Post by CatInASuit on Dec 3, 2007 13:54:02 GMT -5
Double-posting to state: The replacement for Hal Briston will be everyone's favorite formerly deceased feline, CatinaSuit, who has been enthusiastically talking to himself in the non-spoiler forum for a good bit now. I'll update the player list presently. Greetings all, it's good to be back. Enthusiatic talking was me throwing together all the analysis I could find on Day 1 and the night kills. I'll post it shortly assuming that storyteller hasn't changed the password yet
|
|
|
Post by CatInASuit on Dec 3, 2007 14:25:23 GMT -5
First off, the one thing that surprised me about Day 2 is that no-one did a post-by-post of CIAS v.1.
I was so curious that I did my own analysis because I also wanted to see how close it got to anyone doing it in the main thread. Not that anyone did.
Night Zero #1 Fluff Post #9 Fluff Post #18 Fluff Post #24 Thoughts on game with correspsonding colour to back up statements #57 Points out flaw in NAF1138's plan for voting for the lowest poster. #64 Fluff post #67 Comment on NAF1138's voting scheme #73 Fluff post #75 Fluff post
Day 1 #72 Points out issues with the Guv'nor role. Points out 3 problems with auto-lynch govener idea #73 Points out problems with voting for low posters, say everyone voting should have a reason instead. #75 Asks for role of the Guv'nor #78 provides his view on what the Guv'nor will do and the situations it will occur in. #81 Fluff post #85 Provides proof that scum can be caught and lynched in the first three days. #102 Provides explanation to Pleonast on some terms used. #106 vote Cookies for Guv'nor and provides reason #113 Fluff post #138 Gets scummy vibe from NAF1138 and Pleonast. Claims zeriel has made an anti-town slip. Switches Guv'nor vote from Cookies to Santo Rugger #139 Accuses Pleonast of misrepresenting the Guv'nor role. #143 Fluff post. #148 Re-iterates previous point made on the Guv'nor role and provide explanation #156 Produces alleged anti-town slip by zeriel #211 provides reasoning against Pleonast's plans and asks Pleonast to provide some further details. Votes zeriel based on anti-town slip #216 Provides situation where the Guv'nor role is pro-town #248 Disagress with Pleonast on Guv'nor role asks for answers to repviously asked questions #249 Asks Captian Klutz for clarification on his colour post findings #318 Is annoyed with mhaye for linking him to zeriel's lynch #323 Fluff post #326 Fluff post #368 Comment on Pleonast's role claim, changes mind from scummy to townie #372 Comment on zeriel's posting style #442 Says that Pleonast and NAF1138 are likely misguided town, comment on night resistance for replicants #469 point by point rebuttal of NAF1138's accusation. #470 Fluff post #473 Provides further reasoning for vote #478 Provides reasoning against Pleonast's scum slip #483 Response to zeriel re: vote #493 Fluff post #507 Response to drainbead's vote for CIAS
And on that note, I will say no more about my previous role.
|
|
|
Post by CatInASuit on Dec 3, 2007 14:35:54 GMT -5
General thoughts on the townieness or otherwise of the current players.
In listed format, of course.
No Real Read: Tragic Yattara
Pro Colonist: diggitcamara Captain Klutz atarus roosh Cookies Santo Rugger CIAS zuma v.2 kassia NAF1138
Anti-Colonist: Death by Irony Sinjin zeriel drainbead episodeofblonde Parzival Pleonast
Now, given that I have seven people as anti-colonist, they are not all going to be scum, but I would expect the majority of them to be in that group.
|
|
|
Post by CatInASuit on Dec 3, 2007 14:41:34 GMT -5
Night Kills:The following throughts struck me as I was watching Day 2: drainbead reads like she has more info about the night kills than is proper for a normal Colonist. It would not surprise me if our mysterious third faction had a night kill as well. Giving a pro-town Vig, neutral "Mason" Kill and a scum replicant kill.
Kills on the night, I am betting that storyteller has added colour to these kills deliberately, unlike the other games, where the death scenes mean nothing.
So HockeyMonkey killed by replicants - random kill CIAS killed by third party - probably to put pressure onto zeriel later on. Kat - killed by pro-town vigilante, probably an ex-soldier like Pleonast - who knows why?
followed by: I now have this horrible feeling that there was no Vigilante kill last night. Why would a Vigilante risk taking out a townie especially given the risks of taking out a power role.
We have two essentially random kills and myself. What might make more sense is a bonus night kill by the scum if they had one and an SK kill on Kat.
|
|
|
Post by CatInASuit on Dec 3, 2007 14:53:08 GMT -5
Miscellaneous:
1. Another scumtell that keeps popping up is forgetting things from previous in the thread. I'm not talking hockey monkey getting a name wrong, I'm talking episodeofblonde missing the fact that Roosh did the full analysis on hockey monkey's posts.
2. What is interesting is that all the extra changes and variations that storyteller has put in, are being seen as pro-scum.
The governer role, the night talking, the variations in role (see Pleonast), the number of night kills etc. etc.
I would say that these are all neutral and depend upon the skill of the people and the side they are on as to how effective or better for which side.
3. As for Diomedes, he has effectively shut down conversation for the day as people wait for his magic bagTM.
Of course, I see that no-one has asked drainbead the same question as she had said she had her insta-vote ready and lined up.
4. Is it me or has episodeofblonde just tried to stop night discussion and zeriel try to pass blame for diomedes' lynch onto other people.
|
|
|
Post by CatInASuit on Dec 3, 2007 14:56:30 GMT -5
To conclude.
If you had to ask me to nominate my top 3 scum-a-likes at this moment in time the list would read
zeriel drainbead episodeofblonde
I will be doing some further analysis on these three to see if I can justify my feelings.
|
|
|
Post by storyteller0910 on Dec 3, 2007 15:25:22 GMT -5
DAY THREE VOTE COUNT
Pleonast (2) - zuma v. 2.0, sinjin Death by Irony (1) - atarus
Three votes have been cast. The Day will end in approximately 50 hours, at 5:00PM EST on Wednesday, December 5.
|
|