Night Three

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

atarus said:

Simply put, the Nexus-9 Replicant has two modes: activated and inactivated. When the Nexus-9 is inactive, it is a near-perfect simulation of a human. It is so good of a model, it can fool even Blade Runners. However, as a fail-safe, the scientists designed that if the Nexus-9 ever conversed with another Replicant and/or took an action that was violent in nature, it would activate and show up as a Replicant to any investigator.

[bolding mine]

This is where it gets dicey, trying to dissect atarus' paraphrasing of his (alleged) PM while actually trying to dissect what exactly is in the PM.

Those are three key words, I think.

"ever conversed" implies that activation is a one time flip of the switch, and that once the Nexus-9 is activated, it can never go back.

"any investigator" implies that either the known Colonist's investigators could then see the Nexus-9 for what s/he really is once activated. Which also would support the one-time-switch theory.

story: Can you confirm if Kat 1.0 was to turn in any investigative actions at Night?

I don't know how comfortable I am in reading too much into the mechanics of the investigator roles. If Kat 1.0 is confirmed as having been able to investigate by Night, should we attribute any further significance to the Day/Night distribution of their powers than just pro-town balancing redundancy?

"conversed" is nice and vague, leaving us dealing with both of the possibilities that it applies to Night discussion on the scum boards or direct responses/quotes within the main game thread.

I think story would be insane to try and Mod what would and would not classify as "conversing" amongst Replicants in the main game thread. A clever Nexus-9 player could try all sorts of crafty tricks to try and indirectly converse with other Replicants without losing his/her investigation-obscuring power, and I don't think story would've put himself into such a position.

So, in summary, if I were to believe atarus, I'm leaning toward the idea that a Nexus-9 does not alternate back and forth between being inactive or activated, depending on the time of Day or Night, but rather that activation happens only once.

The violent trigger for activation seems simple enough. If a Nexus-9 is selected to make a kill for the scum (however such a determination is made by the Mod), s/he is from then on activated and exposed to investigation.

The "conversed" trigger is more vague, but as I spell out above, I'm leaning toward it referring to the Night scum discussion board. There are still lots of unknowns in this area though. If it does imply the scum boards, does that mean that Nexus-9s have to decide if not participating in the scum boards is worth investigative tampering? Do they get to read the scum boards but not post? Do they not get into the scum boards at all if they wish to keep their investigative tampering? Does listening to what someone else has to say (even if you don't respond) qualify as "conversing"?

There is loads of potential bastard Mod fodder in there.

I haven't re-read with the intention of trying to quantify whether we're dealing with one or more Nexus-9s yet, but I will do so now.

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

pygmyrugger said:

cometothedarkside said:

Almost forgot to put Santo back on the list of Unconfirmed Pleo voters <snip>

*sigh* Does that mean we're going to have to... never mind, I'm not even going to even get into it...

I hate to pull the metagame card, but, what are the chances of me being scum SIX times in a row, with a godfather-like role THREE times in a row?

While I understand the need for skepticism, can't you at least consider me confirmed until it comes to the point where you have reason to believe otherwise? Acknowledging that the possibility that I'm Nexus-9 (are we operating under the assumption that that's the godfather-like role in this game) is healthy, and necessary to obtain an objective perspective. Continuing to mention the possibility is not.

Would you feel better if I put a * next to your name to distinguish you as semi-confirmed?

I only updated the list to avoid anyone quoting the original one out of context.

[RoOsh]

:sigh: *Removes Pygmy from the confirmed voters block. Adds Atarus to the possibly confirmed voters block* (Atarus, I believe you, but I'm going to wait a few days so we know everyone's come back and seen the claim, and if there may be discussion on whether or not to counter. So I'll move you to possibly confirmed just to be safe rather than sorry).


I am of the mindset that there is only one Nexus-9 because of (as klutz pointed out) the "The Nexus" and not "a nexus."

With that said, in my mind the odds of you, GovernorRugger, of being chosen as the Nexus-9 is the same as the rest of us: 1 in 25.
Yes, that would be ridiculously crazy.... But I think last game the same could have been said. What are the odds....
So I will keep you under suspicion. Especially since you're our Governor. Now is the time, I will begin to worry about such matters of the Governor's voting and such.

Because I think the Nexus 9 is the "Godfather" sort of scum. But I wonder- if it's activated... how does it choose to become activated?
The idea of giving someone a choice "You are scum, but you can't visit the scum boards. If you do, you become scum. Until then, you're not scum" is an odd ability.... But as pleonast's role has shown, Storyteller is not above creating these freaky clauses into people's roles....

As for Kassia: Your ideas have merit, but can you show some posts to prove them? Because I don't want to assume ANYTHING now from people stating what's a breadcrumb and what's not unless they've got some posts to back it up.
Because last game, Captain Klutz did a VERY good job of saying Atarus the cop's investigation was probably of me as being pro-town. And I completely took it at face value, as I knew I was town, and it seemed plausible. However, if I had then gone back and examined the data, I (and the rest of the townies) might have realized that Atarus actually had Breadcrumbed Capt. Klutz as the SCUM. It was a brilliant move by klutz, and one that could have really lost it for the Town (had not the scum slip occured).
So, as plausible as your ideas are Kassia. I will feel better SEEING the posts rather than just hearing your interpretation of the posts, please do Cite them though, and I will give your ideas more credence.

And for the person who stated, "well if pleo had found scum, he would have said something." As much, as I would like to think that'd be true (especially if he had the % to take out scum at night), we already have Atarus the Cop from FF as a precedence: where he KNEW the identity of Capt. Klutz as scum, but chose to say nothing about it except for his little breadcrumbs- crumbs that the scum easily picked up on and manipulated. So I think now as a Town more than ever we need to watch out for what's going on. Because scum will be more likely to pick up on those crumbs than us....

Also, I'm still waiting to hear an explanation from you, Dotchan.

[Santo Rugger]

cometothedarkside said:

<snip>Would you feel better if I put a * next to your name to distinguish you as semi-confirmed?

I only updated the list to avoid anyone quoting the original one out of context.

Sure, but I'm not quite sure I see the point. You plan on using that list to attack people based on them voting or not voting for Pleo. There's no reason I should be on it at this time. During endgame, assuming I'm still alive, it would serve the town well to carefully examine my actions throughout the game. All I'm saying is, let's burn that bridge when we cross it.

roosh said:

:sigh: *Removes Pygmy from the confirmed voters block<snip>

I'm not going to dwell on this, but I just wanted to mention that we all should have at least been under the assumption that there was a godfather-like role. Like I said, I understand the skepticism, and think it's healthy, but I guess I'm just not understanding how atarus confirming that the role does exist changes anything, in that respect.

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

roosh said:

And for the person who stated, "well if pleo had found scum, he would have said something." ....

This may not be directed towards me, but just to clarify and avoid confusion, my similar/relevant statement was that I think Pleo would have said something if he had been the vig that killed one of the three Colonists on Night 1, like which one he had killed and why.

[Santo Rugger]

cometothedarkside said:

roosh said:

And for the person who stated, "well if pleo had found scum, he would have said something." ....

This may not be directed towards me, but just to clarify and avoid confusion, my similar/relevant statement was that I think Pleo would have said something if he had been the vig that killed one of the three Colonists on Night 1, like which one he had killed and why.

I thought that at first, too, but then I realized that saying that would have nullified his powers had NAF sampled him.

[RoOsh]

pygmyrugger said:

I'm not going to dwell on this, but I just wanted to mention that we all should have at least been under the assumption that there was a godfather-like role. Like I said, I understand the skepticism, and think it's healthy, but I guess I'm just not understanding how atarus confirming that the role does exist changes anything, in that respect.

Yeah, you shouldn't dwell on it. But basically this means that even if you were confirmed, you're going to have the Astrix by your name. The knowledge that you could be a Godfather i think is a very healthy idea to keep in mind. I hadn't been keeping track of a Godfather in my voting chart. Just 100% confirmed Townies, and I'd figured the replicants all had powers and such. But then it hit me, that my chart put you at 100% confirmed, even though such is not the case- if you were a Godfather you'd appear confirmed. So that's why you'll have to be modified on the list. Maybe italics or underlined or something next time. If pleo had named 3 people as being Townies, all of them would get the same treatment. They will have to be treated with skepticism, and I can't give anyone a blanket "100% Townie" pass. I hope you understand.

I will be playing a lot more cautious now, and I think this is the healthy mindset to have- hence your name removal.

[Parzival]

I haven't had a chance to read everyone's posts in detail, so I don't know if this was mentioned, but this is a guess:

Pleonast voted Kat Day 1. He almost certainly investigated Gov. Rugger.

Kat was killed in the least grotesque manner Night 1. Since his copping and vigging actually happened at alternate times, I'm assuming he had to attempt a kill each night.

It seems semi-reasonable to believe he killed Kat Night 1 (unfortunately). I'm not sure what happened Night 2.

Another thing I think - with the Vig gone, I think discussion of who was killed leans slightly in the town's favor, so I wouldn't count it as suspicious as previously (unless it's distracting from the rest of discussion).

As to atarus's info/claim, I'm inclined to believe it since it fits with my analysis. atarus, is there anything that provides further clarification on how the Nexus-9 activation works?

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

Maybe I'm a little slow. Are you saying that claiming a kill would be equivalent to being honest about his claim, thus breaking the rule that story informed us of here?:

However, if he made a truthful role claim, he’d have lost all of his powers.

That's a loophole I personally would've tried to jump through if I were him.

Where the heck is NAF's claim? Did I forgetting that any powers previously held by the resurrected are lost upon resurrection?

[Santo Rugger]

Whoah, for a second there, when you said "hence your name removal", I thought you had posted a list toDay without me bolded, and I missed it. I was upset with myself for a moment, thinking I'd let my disagreements with cookies since the end of Day 1 become personal, clouding my judgment and calling her out about her list, and not you and yours.

But, yes, I understand. I don't mind being an asterisk on your list, because, to me, that list serves to give a broad perspective of end of day results, and includes the entire spectrum of players. However, cookies' list is a specific documentation of people who voted for Pleo. I'd rather not be on it. But, I understand why I probably should be. But still...

[Santo Rugger]

cometothedarkside said:

Maybe I'm a little slow. Are you saying that claiming a kill would be equivalent to being honest about his claim, thus breaking the rule that story informed us of here?:

However, if he made a truthful role claim, he’d have lost all of his powers.

That's a loophole I personally would've tried to jump through if I were him.

Where the heck is NAF's claim? Did I forgetting that any powers previously held by the resurrected are lost upon resurrection?

NAF's claim is in post 1.386. He says

NAF:"I have two basic powers. I can take a sample once per Day of any player in the game, and then if they die, I can bring them back to life within three Days of when the sample was taken. These resurected people will be replicants created with a new more stable technology and will retain all the memories of their previous life."

I'm fairly certain that Pleo claiming he killed Kat, or anybody else, would have been considered making a truthful claim. He therefore would have lost his powers. Had he been resurrected, said powers would still be lost, as that was his memory condition when he fried, so to speak.

And I just realized that an earlier claim was made that there may be pro colony Replicants. How shitty would it be if this game ended in three way, a la Cookies* in Conspiracy, except this time it was myself, a pro town Replicant who had just been identified as such, and a scum Replicant. The mind, it boggles!

*Mmm, a three way a la Cookies. Err... cookies. Damn it, get your head on straight, solider! Damn it, too much coffee again this morning...

[Zeriel]

drainbead: I was going off Roosh's vote summary on page 1 of tonight, since it was convenient--he has Pleo listed as "did not vote".

Given that, kassia and Roosh are both jumping up to the top of my list.

[kassia]

[quote author=roosh board=gameplay thread=1196886184 post=1196959320 So, as plausible as your ideas are Kassia. I will feel better SEEING the posts rather than just hearing your interpretation of the posts, please do Cite them though, and I will give your ideas more credence.
[/quote]

I don't have a whole lot of time to do this, so I've just grabbed some quotes that I think are useful. Here's what I've found.

In post 1.214 Pleo says

I'm anti-Governor. I think the mechanic hurts the Colony more than it helps it. I don't want to be Governor. I can't see why any Colonist would want to.

And in post 1.224

I agree. If we can get a confirmed Colonist in the Governor's office, then all our worries about the role can be postponed. A self-protecting Colonist is even better.

These two comments make me believe that Pleo would have immediately investigated Rugger in order to confirm him as a colonist.

In post 1.294 Pleo explains his Day 1 voting procedure

So, who to vote for. I'll throw out the highest posters. The Colonists among them are actively helping us, and the Replicants among them will leave a trail of posts for us to analyze.

I'll also throw out the very lowest posters. Low post counts at this point likely mean real life reasons for low participation. Over the next couple Days, they need to bring their activity up. Consistent lack of participation means they're not really playing the game. But that's a mod decision; too early to electrocute lurkers at this point.

What does this leave? For a Day One vote, with basically nothing to go on, I'm inclined to look at those who are just above lurking status. In this case, it's Klutz, Hockey and Kat. I'll go reread their posts and see which of them look scummiest to me.

Note, I'll not be voting simply because of the post count; I'm using it as a first cut. I'm not going to include or exclude others because of changing post counts, to prevent gaming my cut.

Post 1.297 he submits his Day One vote

Of, Klutz, Hockey and Kat, I'm going to vote
Kat
for the chair. Mostly because I've had disagreements with the other two and so may be less objective.

In Post 1.342 Pleo defends his vote for Kat and explains more about his voting process.

And, I'm quickly running out of time. I haven't had time to reread posts (I'm not going to vote for anyone I haven't reread more carefully). So my vote on Kat stays. Yeah, it's little better than a random vote, but:
1) It's not random. I did a first cut, and then reread all the posts of those left. I chose the best vote based on that reread.
2) I'm not over-magnifying borderline scumminess. It's too early in the game. There's not going to be a magic tell at this point. Once there's more actual information, we can go back and look for patterns.
3) I'm not suggesting anyone else follow my vote. Vote the way you see best.

and then he role claims.

And that's the end of DAY ONE. He does not post at all during NIGHT ONE, but we know that he received information on whomever he had investigated. And as many people have stated, it's pretty likely that was Rugger.

At the beginning of DAY TWO, post 2.45 Pleo collects a post count and re-posts Roosh's vote summary, then says

I want to make a first cut on who to vote for. I think scum are less likely to vote for Colonists on a Day One vote then Colonists are. Colonists have no real information to go on and so vote essentially randomly.

Replicants may have a bias against voting for Colonists on Day One, since those voting to kill a Colonist are likely to come under suspicion. Voting for another scum is safer. Since we don't have any confirmed scum, I'll cast my first set of suspicion against those who did not vote for a now-confirmed Colonist: kassia, Santo Rugger, diggitcamara, Roosh, Diomedes, Captain Klutz, mhaye, Hal Briston, atarus. (I'll leave off the non-voters because they've been replaced for non-activity.)

That's nine players, out of twenty-one remaining, about half. I'm inclined to toss off the top post-counts from Day One, since they tend to receive a lot of heat, especially on the first Day. From my list of nine, I'll remove Santo Rugger, Roosh, and Diomedes, who posted significantly more than the next highest on my list (24 vs 16).

The players I'll focus on toDay are kassia, diggitcamara, Captain Klutz, mhaye, Hal Briston, and atarus. I'll go back and reread their posts, looking carefully with how they interacted with confirmed Colonists.

Post 2.51 he again explains his voting process

I'm analyzing in the way I think best. My first cut was based on votes. My second was based on post-counts. My vote will be based on rereads of the posts. That is the information we have to work with and I'm making my thought process transparent. I don't see anything inherently wrong with this process.

Post 2.57 Pleo presents his analyses of the players on his list and summarizes points each player made and the "scumminess" of them. He proceeds to do this, then concludes with
I feel mhaye is most suspicious of the players on my short list.

Thus, I vote
mhaye
for electrocution. I may change my vote if further information comes to light.

Post 2.97 he defends and expands upon his system

Since a couple players have asked to see reasoning behind my +/- scores, I'll go into more detail. I didn't originally because I didn't want to be accused of continuing old, fruitless arguments.

I reread the Day One posts of the six players on my short list. I list the points I feel are important and give a +/- score based on how suspicious I feel each point is. So, yes, this is entirely subjective (it's not like we have much solid information to go on yet), but I don't see how it's "circular logic".

In post 2.115, Pleo quotes mhaye's defense of himself and then says this

Ok, that makes your objection more sensible. I withdraw my suspicion on that particular point. That leaves you at the same suspicion score as kassia and diggit. If my vote remains a singleton on you, I will likely move it to one of them before the end of the day.

In post 2.136 Pleo again states he is willing to change his vote - indicating he has no confirmed knowledge of any of the players on his list.

The Colony is truly screwed if this Day is any indication of the future.

Electrocuting me or Diomedes (given his participation yesterDay) just doesn't make sense. I'm tempted to switch my vote to one of Hal Briston, Yattara or zuma v.1. Electrocuting someone for lurking isn't a great strategy, but being only on Day Two and with scant evidence, I don't think it's a terrible thing.

The vote changing post 2.183

Since no one feels inclined to follow my lead on mhaye, I'm happy to switch my vote from
mhaye
to
kassia

Not much of a reason there.

And that pretty much ended DAY TWO for him as far as posts that will help me. Again, he didn't post during NIGHT TWO, but we can assume he received information on someone. My guess is that Pleo would have investigated mhaye, since that was his first vote candidate. Regardless of whether he investigated mhaye or myself, both would have come back as Colonist. This is evidenced by him sticking to the exact same voting process on DAY THREE as he used the previous days. He did not have more information about anyone than he had the day before, so he had to go with what he could see through the posts.

DAY THREE
Post 3.104 Pleo does his analysis again

Players who were talkative both Days: NAF, Rugger, Cookies, blonde, Pleonast, Roosh, drainbead. Players who were not talkative both Days: atarus, Parzival, Irony, Klutz, kassia, diggitcamara. Players who swapped: sinjin (who posted about the same while everyone else shifted down). Overall, it shows players' posting volume is fairly consistent.

Well, I'm not seeing any great leads here. I guess I'll take a look at kassia and diggitcamara, same as yesterDay. And I'll add zeriel. If I have time, I'll do a fourth.

His results are kassia scummy +4, townie -1, neutral 3. diggitcamera scummy +3, townie -0, neutral 4. zeriel scummy +4, townie -4, neutral 8.
and he concludes

I think I'm happiest with my vote for electrocution on
kassia
but I may switch to one of the others if no one else does.

Not a very forceful argument for his vote for me.

And then we have his fateful (almost) final post 3.163 which pretty much speaks for itself.

And that's all I've got at the moment.

[storyteller0910]

Oh, I missed a question on this page:

All of Kat's abilities, save one, were Night abilities.

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

storyteller0910 said:

Oh, I missed a question on this page:

All of Kat's abilities, save one, were Night abilities.

[insert mod-strangling smiley]

[storyteller0910]

There should be a mod-strangling smiley!

Seriously - the only Day power Kat had was the ability to send PMs to other players, maximum five words, once per Day.

[Pollux Oil]

Okay, in my (not-so-humble) opinion, I think most everybody is OVERthinking what I said about the Nexus-9.

Here is what I, personally, was assuming between my role PM and the introductory color:

1. There is a single Nexus-9.
2. The Nexus-9 is a modified Godfather role. During the Day, it is inactive, and shows up as pro-Colony to anybody investigating it during the Day. At Night, it is active, and shows up as rogue to anybody investigating it.

So originally my interpretation was that it does switch on and off between Night and Day.

However, after people started mentioning the idea of a one-time activation, I went back and looked at the role PM more closely. For future reference, the wording I used does NOT reflect the actual role PM because I didn't want to fall into quoting territory. Anyway, the point is, I re-looked at the role PM and the way it is worded does leave it open to interpretation that the Nexus-9 might be a one-time activation.

CatinaSuit, I definitely think you're thinking a bit too much about what "conversing" might be or imply. I'm assuming that if the Nexus-9 was active from the beginning of the game, then I wouldn't have been given this information.

The point is, I don't want everybody to overanalyze and have the town fall into a trap of overthinking things that don't need to be overthought. Either the Nexus-9 is inactive during the Day and active during the Night, or it's inactive until it decides to talk with the other rogue Replicants and/or kill someone, then it becomes active. From looking at my role PM, I believe these are the only two interpretations that need to be considered.

Finally, the reason I made sure to bring this information forward was to make sure that people didn't completely put Rugger in the pro-town column. A lot of people were immediately saying "well, Rugger is 100% town now" and seemed to be forgetting about the Nexus-9 / Godfather role.

[storyteller0910]

Ladies and gents, all Night actions have been submitted. I will begin the Day early, probably in about a half hour.