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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Dec 8, 2007 11:30:03 GMT -5
Drive-by post from Minnesota.
Reader's Digest version of my stance:
I think the only solid breadcrumb is that Pleo investigated Santo as a Colonist, and while I [metagame] doubt that Santo has turned up as a scummy Godfather for the umpteenth time in a row, I'm still trying very hard to keep objectivity in that regard. I'm still not sure about whether or not I can feel safe in attributing Kat 1.0's death to Pleo. I do think that Pleo would have been more condemning about kassia had she investigated as a Replicant. My "[Pleo's votes] does not bode well for her [kassia]" post was half suspicion and half realism, as it would give non-Colonists a very strong opportunity to throw her under the bus if she has Colonist alignment. I hadn't really looked at kassia closely until Pleo's death, but even after looking at her and possible Pleo clues about her, she is not very high in my suspects list.
I think the cases against drain have merit, however.
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Dec 8, 2007 11:30:50 GMT -5
NETA : DOES have merit
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Post by zuma on Dec 8, 2007 11:32:49 GMT -5
What the hell are you doing in Minnesota?
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Dec 8, 2007 12:11:50 GMT -5
kassia and I are here for her niece's first birthday and because we won't be able to see her niece, sister and brother-in-law for Christmas.
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Dec 9, 2007 0:08:38 GMT -5
Has there really been absolutely no activity since the last time I posted?
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Post by Zeriel on Dec 9, 2007 0:48:44 GMT -5
I'm pondering switching to Roosh or Sinjin again. I think the more I look at it the less confident I feel about Kassia--although I think the most likely result is that Pleo didn't actually investigate her at all.
unvote kassia
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Post by Captain Klutz on Dec 9, 2007 3:11:42 GMT -5
Night 3.67 Parzival
Atarus claimed mason and gave info about the Nexus-9. I'm puzzled how this "fits in with my analysis".
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Post by CatInASuit on Dec 9, 2007 3:21:01 GMT -5
I'm pondering switching to Roosh or Sinjin again. I think the more I look at it the less confident I feel about Kassia--although I think the most likely result is that Pleo didn't actually investigate her at all. unvote kassiaSo at the start of the day, you decide to immediately vote for kassia citing Pleonast as the reason. What reasons do you have for changing your mind that kassia was not investigated?
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Post by Captain Klutz on Dec 9, 2007 3:51:55 GMT -5
NAF is right. we're screwed. I have no idea who to vote for. Maybe an early kassia voter? I think it was fairly obvious that kassia was not breadcrumbed guilty. I'll not vote for the first voter, but the second. vote: drainbead(colour removed) I wouldn't say it was obvious that kassia was not breadcrumbed guilty. To me, the evidence is equivocal: Pleo must have known that his final vote would draw much interest, but he didn't withdraw it or emphasise it. However, I have noticed something interesting: Night 3.37 kassiaNotice the knowledge that kassia shows about how Night actions work. But this is kassia's first game - how does she know this? I mean, it wasn't until the Firefly game that I found this out, and I was surprised that scum couldn't tell results to their fellow scum until the following Night. I can't see a vanilla townie making that statement in their first game, so kassia is either scum or a power role. Vote kassia
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Post by CatInASuit on Dec 9, 2007 4:05:34 GMT -5
NAF is right. we're screwed. I have no idea who to vote for. Maybe an early kassia voter? I think it was fairly obvious that kassia was not breadcrumbed guilty. I'll not vote for the first voter, but the second. vote: drainbead(colour removed) I wouldn't say it was obvious that kassia was not breadcrumbed guilty. To me, the evidence is equivocal: Pleo must have known that his final vote would draw much interest, but he didn't withdraw it or emphasise it. However, I have noticed something interesting: Night 3.37 kassiaNotice the knowledge that kassia shows about how Night actions work. But this is kassia's first game - how does she know this? I mean, it wasn't until the Firefly game that I found this out, and I was surprised that scum couldn't tell results to their fellow scum until the following Night. I can't see a vanilla townie making that statement in their first game, so kassia is either scum or a power role. Vote kassiaNot to totally defend kassia, but I can think of another obvious alternative. Cookies has been telling her about the games on the SDMB and here. After all, Cookies did sign her up for this game, and especially because Cookies was playing scum in Firefly. What is more interesting is that you say she is likely to be either scum or power role and go ahead and vote for her? Out of curiousity, is this voting for a scum or trying to out a power role?
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Post by Captain Klutz on Dec 9, 2007 4:19:26 GMT -5
Not to totally defend kassia, but I can think of another obvious alternative. Cookies has been telling her about the games on the SDMB and here. After all, Cookies did sign her up for this game, and especially because Cookies was playing scum in Firefly. What is more interesting is that you say she is likely to be either scum or power role and go ahead and vote for her? Out of curiousity, is this voting for a scum or trying to out a power role? It's voting for scum (I hope). Given Pleo's rather ambiguous crumb, I think scum is more likely. And yes, I am aware that Cookies would have described some things about the game. However, the precise mechanics of Night actions does not sound like the sort of detail that would be described.
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Post by CatInASuit on Dec 9, 2007 4:28:12 GMT -5
Ok, My take on Pleonast's and his analysis technique. First of all, I think this quote is the most important message he left about it. Reread my analysis posts on Day Two and Day Three for how I approached looking for scum without homing in on inconsequential things. I don't know how right I am, but at least I'm approaching it in a useful way. This reads to me as though he does not know whether his main suspect on Day 3 ie. kassia is a rogue replicant or not. So lets look at who he was analysing Day 2: kassia, diggitcamara, Captain Klutz, mhaye, Hal Briston, and atarus Reason: Did not vote for a confirmed Colonist on Day 1 and had a "lower" post count. His reason for switching from mhaye to kassia was because noone else was voting for mhaye and the only other one on his list being voted for was kassiaDay 3: This is the quote of him deciding who to look at Players who were talkative both Days: NAF, Rugger, Cookies, blonde, Pleonast, Roosh, drainbead. Players who were not talkative both Days: atarus, Parzival, Irony, Klutz, kassia, diggitcamara. Players who swapped: sinjin (who posted about the same while everyone else shifted down). Overall, it shows players' posting volume is fairly consistent.
Well, I'm not seeing any great leads here. I guess I'll take a look at kassia and diggitcamara, same as yesterDay. And I'll add zeriel. If I have time, I'll do a fourth. Ok, would someone like to explain why he decided to analyse zeriel. Personally, I think his investigations went as follows Day 1: Investigate Santo Rugger Day 2: Investigate MHaye Day 3: Investigate zeriel I think the only clue he could leave, he did, in the non-scum remark for Santo Rugger. I will also add something else. Pleonast was a replicant. If Santo Rugger was the Nexus-9, I think he would have been activated by Pleonast's investigation given atarus' info. In other words Pleonast would have spotted the Nexus-9 for what it was, a replicant. However, this leads onto another issue. I think we still have another Blade Runner in the town and a human one at that. This game is not over yet, methinks.
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Post by CatInASuit on Dec 9, 2007 4:37:06 GMT -5
And yes, I am aware that Cookies would have described some things about the game. However, the precise mechanics of Night actions does not sound like the sort of detail that would be described. You're kidding right. One of the major mechanics in which the way the game works and its unlikely to be discussed? And that's part of your reason for voting for her? Are you serious?
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Post by Captain Klutz on Dec 9, 2007 4:51:01 GMT -5
And yes, I am aware that Cookies would have described some things about the game. However, the precise mechanics of Night actions does not sound like the sort of detail that would be described. You're kidding right. One of the major mechanics in which the way the game works and its unlikely to be discussed? And that's part of your reason for voting for her? Are you serious? Night actions are a major mechanic. The fine detail of precisely when the result is obtained is not.
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Post by Captain Klutz on Dec 9, 2007 7:17:10 GMT -5
I will also add something else. Pleonast was a replicant. If Santo Rugger was the Nexus-9, I think he would have been activated by Pleonast's investigation given atarus' info. In other words Pleonast would have spotted the Nexus-9 for what it was, a replicant. However, this leads onto another issue. I think we still have another Blade Runner in the town and a human one at that. This game is not over yet, methinks. I can't agree with the conclusion that Pleo's investigation would activate the Nexus-9: it sounds like "you are immune from investigation unless you get investigated". I think we should await clarification from atarus as to what leads to activation. And your statement "I think we still have another Blade Runner in the town and a human one at that" looks like role fishing.
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Post by episodeofblonde on Dec 9, 2007 7:59:13 GMT -5
Yes, I'm not sure why CIAS2 thinks Pleo would have activated Santo if he was the Nexus-9. I'm going to vote Captain Klutz. This is mostly a gut thing, and I know it's Day Four, but Captain Klutz was pinging me like crazy Day One, and now, after we have had NAF and Pleo's roleclaims (and demises ) it seems to me like Klutz was suspiciously accurate and fishing for people with info about the replicants. his above pondering about the detailed mechanics of the game re: kassia also seems, well, odd. However, I am still suspicious of kassia due to the possibility of her being a Pleo-crumb. Also I am little suspicious of Parzival, who seems to be trying eagerly to appear helpful.
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Post by episodeofblonde on Dec 9, 2007 8:00:56 GMT -5
'eagerly to appear'?!?!? yuck. Stupid English grammar.
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Post by Captain Klutz on Dec 9, 2007 8:52:37 GMT -5
Yes, I'm not sure why CIAS2 thinks Pleo would have activated Santo if he was the Nexus-9. I'm going to vote Captain Klutz. This is mostly a gut thing, and I know it's Day Four, but Captain Klutz was pinging me like crazy Day One, and now, after we have had NAF and Pleo's roleclaims (and demises ) it seems to me like Klutz was suspiciously accurate and fishing for people with info about the replicants. his above pondering about the detailed mechanics of the game re: kassia also seems, well, odd. However, I am still suspicious of kassia due to the possibility of her being a Pleo-crumb. Also I am little suspicious of Parzival, who seems to be trying eagerly to appear helpful. (colour removed) Suspiciously accurate? Well, I was wondering about "rogue" replicants, and it turns out that it was important. I am certainly happy to discuss Replicant issues (I mean, they are the ones we are trying to find), but I will not speculate about possible town roles. And you are suspicious of kassia but you think that pointing out evidence that she has a Night action "seems, well, odd"?
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Post by zuma on Dec 9, 2007 9:00:55 GMT -5
Yes, I'm not sure why CIAS2 thinks Pleo would have activated Santo if he was the Nexus-9. For what it's worth, I kind of thought the same thing after reading atarus's role-claim Simply put, the Nexus-9 Replicant has two modes: activated and inactivated. When the Nexus-9 is inactive, it is a near-perfect simulation of a human. It is so good of a model, it can fool even Blade Runners. However, as a fail-safe, the scientists designed that if the Nexus-9 ever conversed with another Replicant and/or took an action that was violent in nature, it would activate and show up as a Replicant to any investigator. I originally read "conversed" as something that would happen if a replicant ( Pleonast) ever investigated (interrogated?) a replicant. Although he said it could fool even blade runners. I dunno. There could be a human blade runner too, although I find that doubtful, but all in all it was kind of confusing. I initially made the same assumption, that maybe Pleonast would activate it. I'll put it out there, but I understand where CIAS is coming from in that respect.
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Post by zuma on Dec 9, 2007 9:06:17 GMT -5
kassia and I are here for her niece's first birthday and because we won't be able to see her niece, sister and brother-in-law for Christmas. Is she acting particularly suspicious?
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Post by storyteller0910 on Dec 9, 2007 9:52:11 GMT -5
DAY FOUR VOTE COUNT (PAGE THREE)
drainbead (3) - CatinaSuit v. 2.0, Roosh, zuma v. 2.0 kassia (2) - drainbead, Captain Klutz Captain Klutz (1) - episodeofblonde
Six votes have been cast; the Day will end in approximately 80 hours, at 5:00PM EST on Tuesday, December 11.
-------------------------------
Incidentally - I'm sorry I've been sporadic in my own contribution in the last day or two; busy weekend this weekend. In answer to a question posed upthread, Pleonast was permitted to state anything he wished about the alignment of any player, as long as he did not allude to or directly state the reasons underlying his statement (ie, that he had investigated the player in question).
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Post by episodeofblonde on Dec 9, 2007 9:52:26 GMT -5
I originally read "conversed" as something that would happen if a replicant ( Pleonast) ever investigated (interrogated?) a replicant. Although he said it could fool even blade runners. I dunno. There could be a human blade runner too, although I find that doubtful, but all in all it was kind of confusing. I initially made the same assumption, that maybe Pleonast would activate it. I'll put it out there, but I understand where CIAS is coming from in that respect. Hmm, OK, I sorta see what you're saying here. I'm interested what CIAS2 thinks too, of course. Klutz, I am suspicious of kassia because of her being a Pleo-crumb. I'm not convinced that what you pointed out is evidence of her having a night action - what do you think of CIAS2's objection to your claim here? I think that new players shouldn't be assumed to be ignorant of basic game mechanics...
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Post by episodeofblonde on Dec 9, 2007 9:54:59 GMT -5
OK, based on what story has just said, I am even less convinced of kassia being a Pleo-crumb. Still worthy of a mild FoS and an eye being kept out, but if Pleo could have yelled it from the rooftops if he had found a replicant, then I really don't think he would have acted the way he did, re: kassia.
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Post by zuma on Dec 9, 2007 10:15:38 GMT -5
I will say that while I find it highly doubtful kassia was investigated by Pleonast, this of course does not clear her in any way. Pleonast being pro town had legitimate suspicions, and I won't entirely let go of the third-vote thing day 1
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RoOsh
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Post by RoOsh on Dec 9, 2007 10:27:21 GMT -5
Actually, from a meta-game perspective, this one just got interesting. Scum is batting about .097... I was getting sick of town always winning. It got boring. Now we have to win this one the old fashioned way. No cops, and an apparently shitty doc who failed to protect NAF. Hey Hey Hey! We don't need that kinda attitude here! No sympathizing with the enemy! And I kinda saw THIS as a fishing, with the No Cops and a shitty doc reference. Bad Zuma! Bad! I'm with CaiS on this one, I don't think it's quite over yet. Also, a Question for Storyteller: Could Pleonast, a Replicant, Activate the Nexus-9 By Investigating it? And thusly, would he know about the Nexus-9?And I must say Zeriel... you are continuing your behavior from yesterday.... Don't you have any thoughts on the people currently up there in votes? I am starting to dislike your policy of "Always vote for A or B" even though I was guilty of the same thing, I tried to at least on Day 3 show where my votes WOULD have gone if not on my major person. So could you please talk a bit more about well, the Other people in the game rather than just "I'm gonna vote for Sinjin/Roosh" with NO content? To me, you're looking mighty fishy out there just with the quick vote, then the backtracking once you saw it's not picking up, and then resorting back to your safety net of "well it's gonna be A or B" again.... I don't like it. Then again, I'm one of the two people you've mentioned in it, so I guess I'm biased. Am i the only one who dislikes Zeriel's actions today? If so, I'll shut up and accept my fate to be doomed to his mechanical voting style.... But I do hope, Zeriel, that you discuss the other voters out there, so we can hear from you your thoughts on people OTHER than sinjin and i.
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RoOsh
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Post by RoOsh on Dec 9, 2007 10:28:47 GMT -5
*edit: I have no idea why I capitalized THIS in the above post. It looks kinda tacky. Heh. it should be a regular "this" I wasn't shouting or anything about that one.
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Post by storyteller0910 on Dec 9, 2007 10:39:41 GMT -5
Could Pleonast, a Replicant, Activate the Nexus-9 By Investigating it? And thusly, would he know about the Nexus-9? I love y'all, but some information about a given role is reserved for the possessor of that role. Or: no comment.
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Death By Irony
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Post by Death By Irony on Dec 9, 2007 10:40:41 GMT -5
Night 3.37 kassiaNotice the knowledge that kassia shows about how Night actions work. But this is kassia's first game - how does she know this? I mean, it wasn't until the Firefly game that I found this out, and I was surprised that scum couldn't tell results to their fellow scum until the following Night. I can't see a vanilla townie making that statement in their first game, so kassia is either scum or a power role. Or maybe kassia did her homework and read up on previous games such as that aforementioned Conspiracy or Firefly? If anybody is showing too much knowledge, it's you, as other people have already pointed out. FoS Captain Klutz
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Post by zuma on Dec 9, 2007 10:41:27 GMT -5
Hey Hey Hey! We don't need that kinda attitude here! No sympathizing with the enemy! And I kinda saw THIS as a fishing, with the No Cops and a shitty doc reference. Bad Zuma! Bad! I'm with CaiS on this one, I don't think it's quite over yet. I've been quite vocal over many games, and I'll quote it if you wish, that town has been way overpowered and is about 12-1, new england patriots territory. I enjoy playing these games, but it gets boring when town is so powerful that they'll win every time. So yeah, I find it interesting and challenging that we actually have to work this one based on logic, and not 18 power roles and 4 or 5 vanillas.
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Post by zuma on Dec 9, 2007 10:51:15 GMT -5
And no, Roosh, I don't think it's over yet either, but we'll just have to stop depending on cop investigations and such, and use reason and logic. I wasn't "role-fishing". I find it doubtful we have another cop after Pleo and Kat. I think we have a doc, and I'm sorry for insulting him/her, but they really should have protected NAF
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