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Post by Gadarene on Jun 8, 2007 18:31:17 GMT -5
I counted how many times each name appeared in hockeymonkey’s list, and removed all the “confirmed” or confirmed. Name Total bandwagons (bandwagon lynches) Gadarene 6 (2) hockeymonkey 5 (3) Mad The Swine 5 (1) NAF1138 4 (2) Pleonast 4 (3) CaerieD/Hal Briston 4 (1) Autolycus 3 (0) Blaster Master 3 (2) Diggitcamara 3 (0) Lakai 3 (0) panamajack 3 (2) Cookies/Tirial 2 (1) Idle Thoughts 2 (0) Capybara 1 (0) Cowgirl 1 (0) <snip> I am also interested to see who the targets of the top BWs were. Gadarene – Day 1: Auto (twice), KatiRoo; Day 2: MHaye (twice), FCOD (Day 2) hockeymonkey – Day 1: KatiRoo; Day 2: MHaye (twice), FCOD; Day 3: Auntbeast Mad the Swine – Day 1: Auto, capybara; Day 3: auntbeast, Hal Briston, zuma Nice analysis. In my case, at least (and so probably for others), there was specific circumstances giving rise to each of those. For example, I was one of the very first votes (if not the very first vote) on Autolycus on Day One, and I was the second vote on mhaye on Day Two. In neither instance was there a big ol' wagon forming when I made my vote. Being one of many votes on someone also might mean that you were just as mistaken as everyone else, even if you thought you had good, particular reasons at the time.
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Post by NAF1138 on Jun 8, 2007 18:44:43 GMT -5
Ok, well I am heading home. I may be able to post a couple of times over the weekend, but probably not much. I will be around Monday and Tuesday though.
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Post by ArizonaTeach on Jun 8, 2007 19:12:11 GMT -5
I've been out for two days, and my heart was beating double-time when I opened the threads.
Anyway, before I read through anything byond the first post here, I need to address something Hal said at the end of Day Three:
That's not entirely true. You had said that I had mentioned that I was captain on Day Three, which I hadn't. That's what made me go back and look, and while I thought I checked well enough, I obviously hadn't. Don't know what that all means yet, but I don't want you putting false information out there any more than you want me putting it out there!
Now, on to Day Four!
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Post by ArizonaTeach on Jun 8, 2007 19:16:23 GMT -5
...and yeah, after reading Day Four....I got nothing. I don't think anything can happen until we hear from zuma, which I'm really looking forward to.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Jun 8, 2007 19:17:03 GMT -5
Something else that also hit me to look at was who has been on the deciding bandwagons, but just as important, who has not. *Bandwagons that did not conclude in a lynch are not represented here. On every bandwagon – Pleonast (unvoted Katiroo – technically was on two), Hockey Monkey, and ArizonaTeach (mason) On two of the three bandwagons – panamajack, Gadarene, Blaster Master, NAF1138, zuma (Capt. Steele?) On one bandwagon – storyteller (dead), Cookies/ tirial, CaerieD/ Hal Briston, Kyrie Eleison (dead), Mad The SwinePlaced NO VOTES at all for the Lynched (not counting the dead) – Autolycus, capybara, cowgirl, diggitcamara, FCOD (mason), Idle Thoughts, and LakaiI don’t think any self-respecting pirate would have been in on all three lynchings. In the next category, I think it might be feasible for a pirate to be in that bunch, but not so much as I am sure there is one (or three) in the One Bandwagon category. Certainly there is scum among those who have been staying off the bandwagons. Snipped. While I do think that pirates wouldn't all bandwagon at the same time on the same person, I do hope you wouldn't go full force into thinking that the opposite is true. Both could be the case or they could not be. Those three bandwagons that scored lynches in the last three days were all of town. Therefore I'd think, if anything, you'd look a bit more closely at those who cast those votes before you started accusing those who didn't. And now I read that NAF is about to make me his own personal project, apparently. In WWPP (side thread of Day 1) he says that he will play exactly the same way every time, no matter what his role. In D3 P#246 he say’s “Do you honestly think I’d play the same way in every game?” I was saying this to BM because he OBVIOUSLY did see a difference. One that, as I said in the same post, I wasn't aware of myself. For all I know I AM playing the same and it's him that's either misreading me or scum trying to set up a future lynch reason. But when you get right down to it, as far as I know I'm playing the EXACT SAME way as I did in the other game. See I made that post in Day one before my role was revealed in M3. Note how I said something along the lines of "however I don't know how I would play if I were scum because I've never been scum yet". I even had an exchange with the departed Mhaye over that, if you go look. Well, my side in ONE of the games has been verified now..so that was half of the truth you know, for certain, so far. Do you really want to lynch me just to find out the rest of it? I think you do. From your post there, it seems like you're really out to get me now. It makes me think even more strongly that YOU'RE the one that's scum. Because it's not? You want to talk about inconsistentcy? I have a prime example of HARD, SOLID inconsistency. Take a look at your own post, which I quoted, from Day Three (that also caused me to vote for you, as I also said in Day Three): NAF, Day Three: Note the bolded part by me. You specifically say 'AND I SUSPECT THAT IF WE LOOK AT WHO HOPPED ON BOARD IMMEDIATLY AFTER IT STARTED TO GAIN STEAM WE WEILL FIND AT LEAST ONE SCUM'..and then, one paragraph later, you cast your vote for Hal, who, at that time, HAD THE MOST VOTES AGAINST HIM! You did exactly what you (A.) not only admitted you felt was bad/a mistake/wrong about zuma's case.......but (B.) also said you felt that was a scum tell. But then you do it all all over again in the same post. And you're one to talk to ME about inconsistancy? And while I'm on that subject... ....is wrong. Because I plainly say in Day Three that it was the quote above that made me vote for you. This is weak. I'd expect much more solid things, especially from someone as experienced in the game as yourself. Yeah, that makes a lot sense.... that'd I'd go after the people and be suspicious of people I'd just wind up killing at Night anyway. Come on, be sensible. That'd be pretty dumb of a real pirate to do. WHAT? I never had suspicions of fluid at all. Where are you getting these things? Are you just making them up? And I told cowgirl that I'd just as soon think that question asked like that might be pirates too. Seriously, I've gone over this before in both days one and two. I don't see what's so inconsistant about these things. The things HM was doing back then was actually taking my words and posts and making them mean something completely different. Much like you're doing right now. Seriously. I'd like an explanation about this "goes after... fluid" statement because I didn't even have the slightest suspicion of her. I don't see how you could have gotten that from anything I've ever said. Oh for pete's sakes. I've said time and time again I'M A REGULAR HOST OF THIS MYSELF. I do this. HOW else would the pirates KNOW who each other were? Therefore it's common-freaking-sense that they'd either be PMed who each other was from the start...or they'd be PMed a board link where they'd find their fellow pirates posting at. That is what I said in that post because that is what A. I've always done in the 11 or so games that I've hosted and B. Always heard done by other hosts. How is it a slip? It's not hard to commonly deduce this, especially since I do it all the time as host myself. Yeah yeah yeah.. Vote Naf1138. And not for voting for me, and not for being all aggressive. I'm going to make it very clear now since it wasn't seen, apparently, in Day Three. I'm voting for you for being blatantly inconsistant yourself and singling me out with not much to go on. I mean seriously, I'm a light player and if you really see suspicion in my posts that's legitimate, have at it. But half those things you're basing on things I never even SAID or FELT or that were twisted in the past already. Why do people do this? I understand it's a game but at least work with the things that are THERE. Even what Hockey Monkey posted above with the whole bandwagon thing and pirates wanting to avoid them..that's legit. That's something that if you want to vote for me for,..fine. But don't pull stuff out of the woodwork because it just seems like you're very desparate or scum. I feel it's the latter.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Jun 8, 2007 19:39:40 GMT -5
Want more?
Here you go.
Day Three, NAF. Posts 33 and 34 (snipped some):
#33
#34
Bolding mine.
That just being the last Day we had (yesterDay?). Day Three. This is the start of Day Four and all of a sudden you're singing this tune (a quote I also quote above in my post):
So which is it? "Fruitless" or "the biggest thing for [you]"?
You turned a complete one eighty with no seeming reason at all. I think you're just trying to build a case against me out of nothing and I do think that that's a huge scum tell. And then you have the audacity to say that I'm being incosistent? Hahaha. : p
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Post by zuma on Jun 8, 2007 19:56:51 GMT -5
NAF and Idle, you can quit your bickering.
Last night I watched myself. Idle Thoughts attacked me, and the doctor protected me.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Jun 8, 2007 20:02:42 GMT -5
You realize you just killed yourself, zuma?
Because now everyone's going to lynch me this Day...going on what you just said...and then when they see I'm crew, they're going to lynch you the next day. And then, the day after that, I hope they lynch NAF.
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Post by capybara on Jun 8, 2007 20:04:21 GMT -5
Wow, I think the soundtrack just changed. How very interesting. Need to think about what it means if he's one of the odd ones and not a vanilla pirate, but vote idle thoughts
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Post by Pleonast on Jun 8, 2007 20:04:50 GMT -5
NAF and Idle, you can quit your bickering. Last night I watched myself. Idle Thoughts attacked me, and the doctor protected me. Quickly catching up, this seems like we should lynch Idle, right? If he's not scum, zuma will pay the piper next.
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Post by capybara on Jun 8, 2007 20:08:06 GMT -5
And I think IF Zuma's lying, he does have a death wish, but I think that's unlikely. But a distant possibility so I'll keep my mind open.That's a pretty durned big statement he's made-- if he's lying about being Steele he could have gotten something else done without quite such an interesting whopper.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Jun 8, 2007 20:11:14 GMT -5
Wow, I think the soundtrack just changed. How very interesting. Need to think about what it means if he's one of the odd ones and not a vanilla pirate, but vote idle thoughts Zuma is lying. He's not Captain Steele. I know this for a fact now..because I know that I'm crew. I actually think that was a pretty stupid move on his part because when I AM killed off and it's seen that I'm crew, he'll be the next to go. So if you're really crew, then don't be caught up in his lying. Seriously. Vote for him. He is scum. I say this with 100 percent certainty now. unvote NAF (although based on his major "forgets" of what he's said in the recent past based on what he's saying now, I still feel very strongly that he's scum too) vote zumaPleonast, that's dumb. I'm CREW. Why not lynch zuma instead and find out he's really scum (which I know now he is without a DOUBT) instead of killing off YET another crew member? Why are you being fooled? My only thoughts are either: You're a pirate yourself...or you're believing zuma in what he says. If it's the latter, then guess what, sure he dies the next day...but you're still ANOTHER crew member down. And if it's the former, well, then I have nothing to say to you because it's obvious you'd be out to get me (or any other crew).
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Post by capybara on Jun 8, 2007 20:11:34 GMT -5
Actually, can't one of the known Mason-Gentlemen confirm whom the doc protected?
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Jun 8, 2007 20:13:50 GMT -5
And I think IF Zuma's lying, he does have a death wish, but I think that's unlikely. But a distant possibility so I'll keep my mind open.That's a pretty durned big statement he's made-- if he's lying about being Steele he could have gotten something else done without quite such an interesting whopper. It's NOT. I'm telling you it's NOT unlikely. He IS lying. I swear to God! I swear on my father's soul, may he rest in peace. I am NOT a pirate! So I plead with you. If you really ARE crew, UNvote me. Because then only those who are probably pirates or for the side of bad will try to bump me off.
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Post by capybara on Jun 8, 2007 20:16:01 GMT -5
unvote idle thoughts for now
Misters Livesey and Trewlawney? Anything to add before this turns into a speed lynch without everyone catching up, just in case Zuma IS lying and this goes through with a piratey speedy mandate?
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Post by Pleonast on Jun 8, 2007 20:33:08 GMT -5
Pleonast, that's dumb. I'm CREW. Why not lynch zuma instead and find out he's really scum (which I know now he is without a DOUBT) instead of killing off YET another crew member? Why are you being fooled? My only thoughts are either: You're a pirate yourself...or you're believing zuma in what he says. If it's the latter, then guess what, sure he dies the next day...but you're still ANOTHER crew member down. And if it's the former, well, then I have nothing to say to you because it's obvious you'd be out to get me (or any other crew). A one-for-one trade is quite acceptable to the Crew in most situations. How does lynching both of you (in the worst case) not be a good trade now? It's a he-said-she-said situation. Why should I believe you over zuma? Vinegar, honey, you're insulting, he's not. ++Vote Idle Thoughts++For being entirely unCrewlike by not being willing to trade himself for (what he himself claims is) a scum.
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Post by Pleonast on Jun 8, 2007 20:35:07 GMT -5
Misters Livesey and Trewlawney? Anything to add before this turns into a speed lynch without everyone catching up, just in case Zuma IS lying and this goes through with a piratey speedy mandate? How should they know who the Doctor protected? I didn't think the Officers could talk privately.
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Parzival
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Post by Parzival on Jun 8, 2007 20:37:27 GMT -5
capybara, the Officers don't know who the Doctor's protected any more than we do. They know who the Doctor is, but they don't have any private correspondence.
It may be possible for the doc to help us through them, but it's a bit risky. He doesn't have to say exactly who he protected, he might merely suggest by way of voting.
If we want this to happen, though, we need everyone to make a post before the Officers vote.
We clearly ought to kill one or the other of these two. I'm for Idle toDay, and zuma tomorrow - it seems to me the safest, but we should probably think on it a bit more.
I don't want a speed lynch, so
I will eventually vote Idle Thoughts unless we learn something else.
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Post by capybara on Jun 8, 2007 20:38:01 GMT -5
Ok, cross examination. Looking at the rules.
Zuma, when you got attacked, did you choose to 'block' or 'witness'? Presumably witness: why not block, knowing you'd be, like, dead? Or did you know the doctor was protecting you already when you were given that choice? The rules are unclear re: order of operation.
If Zuma tells the truth, we know that Idle is not Flint.
And on reading the roles I see we have Smollett and Trelawney putatively claimed, and Livesey is the unidentified-as-yet doctor.
And on preview, so the masons don't chat at night?
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Jun 8, 2007 20:38:09 GMT -5
Pleonast, that's dumb. I'm CREW. Why not lynch zuma instead and find out he's really scum (which I know now he is without a DOUBT) instead of killing off YET another crew member? Why are you being fooled? My only thoughts are either: You're a pirate yourself...or you're believing zuma in what he says. If it's the latter, then guess what, sure he dies the next day...but you're still ANOTHER crew member down. And if it's the former, well, then I have nothing to say to you because it's obvious you'd be out to get me (or any other crew). A one-for-one trade is quite acceptable to the Crew in most situations. How does lynching both of you (in the worst case) not be a good trade now? It's a he-said-she-said situation. Why should I believe you over zuma? Vinegar, honey, you're insulting, he's not. ++Vote Idle Thoughts++For being entirely unCrewlike by not being willing to trade himself for (what he himself claims is) a scum. What? Are you nuts? It's NOT a one for one trade. In case you haven't realized it yet, the past three Day's lynches have been CREW. And now, if you and everyone else believe zuma, it will be FOUR days in a row before you all finally get an actual pirate (zuma). So pardon me if I'm wrong, but that will be FOUR to ONE. Why rack up yet another crew death? Unless you're scum, that is.
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Post by Parzival on Jun 8, 2007 20:39:49 GMT -5
That was supposed to be emphasized with color but not blue.
I will eventually vote Idle Thoughts
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Post by zuma on Jun 8, 2007 20:40:47 GMT -5
Capy,
I chose to witness. I saw no reason why the doc would not protect me last night.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Jun 8, 2007 20:41:04 GMT -5
capybara, the Officers don't know who the Doctor's protected any more than we do. They know who the Doctor is, but they don't have any private correspondence. It may be possible for the doc to help us through them, but it's a bit risky. He doesn't have to say exactly who he protected, he might merely suggest by way of voting. If we want this to happen, though, we need everyone to make a post before the Officers vote. We clearly ought to kill one or the other of these two. I'm for Idle toDay, and zuma tomorrow - it seems to me the safest, but we should probably think on it a bit more. I don't want a speed lynch, so I will eventually vote Idle Thoughts unless we learn something else. For fuck's sakes, I'm TOWN. That was so stupid for zuma to do (I think) because I'm now willing to do anything to make the real pro-good side see the truth. Vote for zuma. Seriously. Lynch HIM. And if he IS Captain Steele....then hell, I'll request kill by mod even before the next Day begins. I PROMISE you all. That is how sure I am that he's lying through his teeth. You can't get any more sure than 100 percent.
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Post by capybara on Jun 8, 2007 20:44:49 GMT -5
Ok, ignorance fought, my bad. Meanwhile, I have better fuzzy thoughts toward Zuma than Idle, since (again, knowing I'm crew) he saved my ass at one point, and if he were scum he'd have peacefully let my chatty self drop.
I also notice that now that the tables are turned Idle puts up a much more. . . . 'offensive' defense than anyone else who's been close to death? Perhaps it's on account of the circumstances, but even before Zuma came in Idle was on the defensive warpath, which we haven't really seen any of the other lynchees or even prime suspects do. This might just be a style thing, however.
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Post by Parzival on Jun 8, 2007 20:46:12 GMT -5
For what it's worth, I'm not so sure getting the Doctor's help is best here. Is it better to simply do the one-for-one or get guaranteed scum at slight risk of outing the Doctor? Probably the former. Is there a better way to get Officer help? Anyone?
Another thing ... zuma's got ~ 1/3 chance of dying tonight if he truly is Steele (assuming the scum risks going against a Block).
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Jun 8, 2007 20:57:38 GMT -5
Here's what I think personally: My disbelief of zuma being Steele yesterday makes me think that he thinks that maybe I'M Captain Steele (which I'm not, so I think he'll be very disappointed to find this out) and is trying to either A: get you all to lynch me or B: force me to roleclaim it. But the jokes on him if that IS the case why he feels he must lie...because I'm not Steele. I have no role other than crew.
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Post by capybara on Jun 8, 2007 20:57:55 GMT -5
Ok. Possibilities: We kill Idle Thoughts; he doesn't roleclaim. A) he's a pirate: good b) he's vanilla crew and takes one for the team. Bad. Then we kill Zuma the pirate: good.
We kill Zuma. a) he's a pirate. good b) he's in fact Steele and takes one for the team. Worse than the above bad. Then we kill I.T. the pirate, but have traded a pirate for an officer who can I.D. people rather than one vanilla crewmember (sorry, but cannon fodder in the cosmic scheme)
Is this logic correct, anyone?
Perhaps the doctor should indeed stay quiet, by the way.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Jun 8, 2007 21:07:39 GMT -5
Ok. Possibilities: We kill Idle Thoughts; he doesn't roleclaim. A) he's a pirate: good b) he's vanilla crew and takes one for the team. Bad. Then we kill Zuma the pirate: good. You and others keep saying this. I don't get this at all. To what point does "taking one for the team" stop? What, when there's only TWO crew left? Would you still say that one should "take one for the team" then? I mean when we're first starting out that may be great but come ON. THREE crew have already been lynched. And THREE others on Nights. That's a total of SIX CREW so far. DO YOU REALLY NEED to LOSE another just for the chance of getting your first pirate? Pleonast says it's one for one..but that's way off and I think he knows that. It's actuall six for one so far if you lynch me..just to find out zuma was lying all that time. I think that's bullcrap. I KNOW I'm crew and since zuma is saying I "attacked" him last night, I KNOW he's not Captain Steele. And not only do I know that, the real Captain Steele and the Doc (who knows who s/he protected) know this as well! Now please, listen to reason. Don't be caught up in his lying just because he saved your butt. Don't you remember what I said before? He could have done that just to garner your trust and apparently he's succeeded. Do you really want to look (if you're REALLY crew) like a pirate helper? He role claimed the most powerful role in the game SO EARLY. And this was even before he had a LOT of votes against him. Do you really think the REAL Captain Steele would do that?! THINK ABOUT IT. And then what are the chances that he'd watch me? He voted for me yesterday..do you really think that IF I WERE REALLY A PIRATE, that I'd try to bump him off myself? Please. That'd be so stupid! I'm not a pirate. I can't "attack" anyone at Night. So zuma is lying and if he's crew, then WHY is he lying? Especially about being Steele? He's scum.
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Post by zuma on Jun 8, 2007 21:11:19 GMT -5
And then what are the chances that he'd watch me? He voted for me yesterday..do you really think that IF I WERE REALLY A PIRATE, that I'd try to bump him off myself? Please. That'd be so stupid! I did not watch YOU, Idle, I watched ME.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Jun 8, 2007 21:18:39 GMT -5
My mistake, zuma. But that doesn't take away from the fact that you're a pirate who is lying through is teeth.
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