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Post by diggitcamara on Dec 14, 2007 12:11:17 GMT -5
diggitcamara: what's up? any thoughts? at all? (snip) Not many right now. However, even though I'm less and less inclined to entertain the notion that our Guv'nur is scum (again), there could be a very slight chance that the scum for some reason think they have the game locked up if they can avoid being lynched for one or two Days. But, like Rugger said, that's unlikely, because even the death of one of the "confirmed" citizens would blow their plot to smithereens. I'll do an extensive re-read of the last couple of Days and see what I'll come up with (tomorrow at the latest).
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Post by Santo Rugger on Dec 14, 2007 13:05:26 GMT -5
<snip> rugger: what do you think about kassia now that she has joined you in the claimed blue whizzers?<snip> I'm really not sure what to say, I don't think I understand the question as presented? I mean, my answer would be, "great, it looks like we have another confirmed town!". But, that seems so obvious, it seems like you're looking for something else? And sinjin, just to clarify, did you zap kassia last Night?
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Post by Santo Rugger on Dec 14, 2007 13:11:51 GMT -5
<snip> Because I experienced an event that very nearly matches what Santo Rugger was saying this morning (hence my questioning of him), but had slight differences.<snip> I just want to make it clear that I was intentionally vague, and slightly skewed the details of my Night 3 experience in my initial post about it. Since I didn't know exactly why it happened, I wanted to only put out as much information as was necessary to try and put the puzzle pieces together. There is a small piece of additional info that kassia and I may be able to use together to confirm the last person sinjin zaps, if she's able to get her shot off before she's Night killed.
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Post by CatInASuit on Dec 14, 2007 14:28:27 GMT -5
some answers to some questions: CIAS2 I just went back to look at Day One, and I couldn't find any defence by Catinasuit1 after I voted for him - are you referring to something else? it was my first Day playing, I thought NAF had made some good points against him, and in particular I thought his attack on zeriel was v weak. Obviously, I was mistaken about him being scummy. So were three others, two of them now proven pro-town players. Re: my vote for Roosh switching to Klutz. My attitude toward votes is that they aren't precious. I've not had a problem voting for who I thought was scummiest at the time. When I voted for Roosh, I was in a rush and did not want to hammer Pleo - I was v worried there was something funny with his lynch - and Roosh had pinged me for the reasons I said, so I went with voting him to have a vote on record. When I voted for Klutz, someone who'd been pinging me all game, it was a 'straw that broke the camel's back thing' with his interaction with kassia, where he was making some really unwarranted assumptions and continuing to behave in a way I found scummy, as I said. Roosh got put on the back-burner, but Day Four anyway he did not really continue to ping me. Just because I haven’t voted him again doesn’t mean I ain’t watchin’. Next I will ask some questions myself. Now this causes me some problems. Your reason for voting for CIAS v.1 on Day 1 was that the defence to NAF1138's points was uninspiring. That's pretty much quoted from you by the way in Day 1 #504. Also linking yourself to other players' reasoning and results is a bad thing. Just because two of the others who voted for CIAS v.1 were town, it does not mean that the other two cannot be scum. Secondly. as you put it "My attitude toward votes is that they aren't precious". WTF? If you are a townie, then your vote is the most important thing you have apart from your intelligance. It is what you can use to get rid of the scum and that's it. As for your voting, your Day 3 vote for Roosh pretty much came from nowhere given that you had not mentioned him since Day 1. And more damning is that if you have found Captain Klutz scummy, you certainly haven't mentioned it in your posts and in fact have been slightly pro-him and his ideas. Would you care to explain? kthxbye.
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Post by Parzival on Dec 14, 2007 14:35:05 GMT -5
sinjin, do you know how to calculate the probability that someone who didn't report blue pee is scum?
I don't know if you're one of the math-haters or not, but this is mostly for your benefit in case you didn't know this. It could be useful if we happen to put one of your targets up on the block.
It's moderately likely that anyone who didn't report so far is a replicant. While it will always be more likely that they are human, it's several times better than a random shot at them.
It may even be worth a vote (more in a moment).
Derivation follows:
Our good friend the Rev. Bayes gives us the formula for calculating conditional probability:
P(A) means "Probability of A" P(A|B) means "Probability of A, given B"
P(A|B) =
P(A) * P(B|A) ----------------------------------- SUM(i): P(B|Ai)P(Ai) (where Ai covers the whole event space)
We want to know the chance someone is a replicant, given that they did not report anything unusual. A = target 'x' is a replicant B = 'x' does not report
Note the P(B|A) = 1, since a replicant does not report (no 'false negatives').
P(x is a rep. | x does not report bluepee) = P( x is a replicant) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- P(x is a replicant) + P(x is human)*P(x does not report and is human)
Assuming a rough amount of 25% scum at any given time, we have:
0.25 / (0.25) + (0.75 * 0.5) = 0.4
If you do manage to test more people as the game goes on, it may be wise to adjust the scum ratio, but the result will still be somewhere around here, but no more than 1/2. (At present, even if there were only one scum in the whole game, it'd still be ~ 12%, double the odds of a random pick).
So there's a roughly 40% chance that someone who does not report is scum. Keep it in mind.
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Post by sinjin on Dec 14, 2007 14:49:54 GMT -5
And sinjin, just to clarify, did you zap kassia last Night? I went back and forth on whether to answer this or not. But should I die shortly I think you need to know. The answer is No. Diabolical mods and designers.
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Post by CatInASuit on Dec 14, 2007 14:51:44 GMT -5
Cat: I can answer your second question. My nano-bots are benign. They have absolutely no long term effect except maybe some psychological trama. I have to wonder why you asked though, especially about hockeymonkey's death. There are two pieces of remaining unexplained info that are left which is why I asked. From the opening colour: A variety of other townsfolk had skills and abilities that could be turned toward the hunt for Replicants, although they wisely kept those skills to themselves until the proper time for revelation was at hand.I guess you would be one of these guys then, sinjin. Sadly, not every resident of this colony shared the intentions and goals of the colony as a whole. Like in every frontier town, corruption abounded in New Canaan, and there were those who would twist the Replicant uprising toward their own ends.Which raises the question of who are these guys then? Also Hockey Monkey's death scene in full was Lying on the ground was a mass of flesh that had once been a citizen of New Canaan. Her arms had been removed from her shoulders, and used to batter her into unconsciousness; the Coroner would ultimately find that death actually occurred when the deceased choked on her own right foot. Since everything about her that was once internal was now external, it wasn't difficult to determine that the departed had been no Replicant; a quick search of her belongings and identification told the colony everything else it needed to know.
hockey monkey, a Vanilla Colonist, has been murdered, or chosen an extremely unlikely means of suicide. Probably murdered. I was concerned that another side effect of your nano bots would be the cause of the above. Then again, thinking about it, it would be more likely that if a person had a bad effect then they would be the killer and not the deceased. But given there is a missing faction in the town, they might be more responsible for what occured on that night than yourself, sinjin. And yes, I am trying to put all the pieces together given everything we know.
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Post by Parzival on Dec 14, 2007 15:11:02 GMT -5
If we assume that everyone who has posted since sinjin's claim and not mentioned their blue micturition does not have it, then the list looks like this:
NO - atarus NO - Captain Klutz NO - CatinaSuit v. 2.0 (Hal Briston) NO* - CometotheDarkSideWeHaveCookies NO - Death by Irony NO - diggitcamara ? - drainbead NO - episodeofblonde YES - kassia NO - Kat v. 2.0 (Yattara) NO* - Parzival NO* - Roosh YES - Santo Rugger N/A - sinjin NO - Tragic (hazelnutcoffee) NO - zuma Version 2.0 (Blaster Master)
Anyone who wishes to say otherwise ought to do so, since we can't be certain you've read it. I put a * next to the names of people who have made explicit statements about their lack of bluepee.
Sinjin, if there is someone on the list who you nanoed and they don't report, AND IF you also find them suspicious, and vote for them, please mention this fact. I don't think it means the town should definitely lynch them, but it's probably better than 1/3 chance, so should weigh heavily in people's decisions.
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Post by Santo Rugger on Dec 14, 2007 15:24:31 GMT -5
And sinjin, just to clarify, did you zap kassia last Night? I went back and forth on whether to answer this or not. But should I die shortly I think you need to know. The answer is No. Diabolical mods and designers. Was Night 3 the Night you zapped ME? The reason I'm asking is because kassia doesn't mention anything about pee before you told all, even though the blue was apparently breadcrumbed. In other words, when zapped, does the zappee experience blue pee when they wake up that Morning, or is it possible for there to be a delay of a Day or two?
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Post by CatInASuit on Dec 14, 2007 15:24:36 GMT -5
The 5 people were: Episodeofblonde Parzival tragic Cookies RooshThe people in this group suspected lots of others, other people suspected people in this group. But within this group, there was a virtual absence of suspicion. There was some very minor stuff, for example tragic was keeping her eye on roosh (who she knew in real life), but that was all. Heck, the only time one of them voted for another, it was the final vote on Day 3, when episodeofblonde ignored the Pleo wagon (and Pleo's notorious Rugger comment) and cast a throwaway vote for Roosh (and the alleged suspicion that caused this vote was never followed up). I checked and I think someone needs to do some more checking again. Up until Day 4, this group also included one other player as well. Episodeofblonde Parzival tragic Cookies Roosh Captain KlutzHmm, I guess that makes you scummy as well.
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Post by CatInASuit on Dec 14, 2007 15:44:35 GMT -5
And I can't believe I'm going to say this, but for the record I pee yellow Must drink more water
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Post by Santo Rugger on Dec 14, 2007 15:46:10 GMT -5
And I can't believe I'm going to say this, but for the record I pee yellow Must drink more waterSCUM!!!!
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Post by CatInASuit on Dec 14, 2007 15:50:32 GMT -5
And I can't believe I'm going to say this, but for the record I pee yellow Must drink more waterSCUM!!!! I do hope you are joking
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Post by Santo Rugger on Dec 14, 2007 16:17:40 GMT -5
Well, I don't know if yellow pee means anything (in the game, duh ), but I don't understand why anybody would explicitly state at this point that they haven't peed blue? So, half joking, half confused.
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Post by CatInASuit on Dec 14, 2007 16:25:44 GMT -5
Well, I don't know if yellow pee means anything (in the game, duh ), but I don't understand why anybody would explicitly state at this point that they haven't peed blue? So, half joking, half confused. I used yellow because of Parzival's chart, that's all. No, I don't know why I did it either I think I am going to leave this until the morning. Sleep always makes them seem better in the morning. and maybe a few more of my questions will have been answered. Yup, definitely the best idea.
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Post by storyteller0910 on Dec 14, 2007 17:01:25 GMT -5
OK, everyone -
I am leaving work now. I have a rehearsal dinner tonight, then I'm staying at a hotel and attending a wedding tomorrow morning. I won't be anywhere near a computer between now and about 7:00PM tomorrow (Saturday) evening. Please police yourselves until then, and have a good time!
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Dec 14, 2007 18:02:05 GMT -5
Why have I stipulated that I have not yet pee'd blue? Because I haven't, and I think transparency in this matter is better for the Colonists than WIFOMing with it.
Do we even have a method for trying to confirm between sinjin and the claiming Wee-wees de Azule?
Should all wee-wee's provide the exact moments that they were made aware of the blue pee, and have sinjin confirm or deny as we go, if she so desires to do so?
As for when sinjin should (if ever) share the list of people who have not responded, I trust sinjin to do what she thinks is best, along with any other decisions she has involving her role.
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Dec 14, 2007 18:27:37 GMT -5
[oog]I'm abandoning kassia to take care of our zoo all by herself with no hot water (long story) and drive up to my Mom's for a load of much-needed firewood this weekend. I'll try and check in a couple of times a day on my Mom's dialup.[/oog]
I have some responses to Klutz, but haven't had time to post them today.
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Post by Parzival on Dec 14, 2007 18:51:56 GMT -5
Why have I stipulated that I have not yet pee'd blue? Because I haven't, and I think transparency in this matter is better for the Colonists than WIFOMing with it. Do we even have a method for trying to confirm between sinjin and the claiming Wee-wees de Azule? Should all wee-wee's provide the exact moments that they were made aware of the blue pee, and have sinjin confirm or deny as we go, if she so desires to do so? As for when sinjin should (if ever) share the list of people who have not responded, I trust sinjin to do what she thinks is best, along with any other decisions she has involving her role. In 5.47 you said you were NOT claiming blue pee. There is no good reason to withhold a true blue claim, so if you are not claiming it, you must be in the yellow group. The point in soliciting denials is that up to this point, there may be at least one person tested who did not report anything. If everyone has made statements to this effect, there's no going back on them later. If sinjin decides to tell us when she votes, I'll see it as a heavier mark against them. Bear in mind this is a very inaccurate way to catch scum, so it should NOT be enough on its own to cause a vote. Especially as I did make a mistake in estimating the increase in likelihood of a non-reporter being scum over random scum. I was still thinking random out of all players, but now we've got a lot of colony dead and no scum, so a random pick is more likely to hit scum now than at the start.
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Post by episodeofblonde on Dec 14, 2007 18:53:46 GMT -5
some answers to some questions: Now this causes me some problems. Your reason for voting for CIAS v.1 on Day 1 was that the defence to NAF1138's points was uninspiring. That's pretty much quoted from you by the way in Day 1 #504. Also linking yourself to other players' reasoning and results is a bad thing. Just because two of the others who voted for CIAS v.1 were town, it does not mean that the other two cannot be scum. Secondly. as you put it "My attitude toward votes is that they aren't precious". WTF? If you are a townie, then your vote is the most important thing you have apart from your intelligance. It is what you can use to get rid of the scum and that's it. As for your voting, your Day 3 vote for Roosh pretty much came from nowhere given that you had not mentioned him since Day 1. And more damning is that if you have found Captain Klutz scummy, you certainly haven't mentioned it in your posts and in fact have been slightly pro-him and his ideas. Would you care to explain? Re: Day One voting. I can't explain it any more than I already have. I didn't believe CIAS1, he seemed most scummy to me, and, on my first Day playing, I thought NAF's arguments against you were good. I was wrong, unfortunately. It was Day One, I was going with what I had, which was admittedly not much. Votes not being precious: they are important tools but they can be used in different ways. My vote for Roosh was as I explained - a registration of my feelings on him on Day Three. Similarly, Klutz on Day Four (who was someone I was watching - I didn't mention it because it was not a coherent thing until the kassia interactions, as I said) was a registration of my feelings on him at the time. If I had been convinced by his response to my vote, I would have changed it. Votes can be changed if circumstances warrant it, that's all I meant by their not being precious. You seem hung up on the way I have phrased things, rather than what I mean. Your previous incarnation did this on Day One with zeriel, and it bothered me. Is there any need to be rude?
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Post by Parzival on Dec 14, 2007 19:11:45 GMT -5
In fact, the relatively greater likelihood that a nanoed non-reporter is a replicant is easy to figure:
If there are R replicants out of P players, the chance a random player is a replicant is R/P
The formula for the conditional probability a tested person is replicant given they didn't report becomes
(R/P) / ( R/P + ((P-R)/P)*0.5 )
which becomes R/( R + 0.5*(P-R) )
If you divide this by the 'random pick' chance you get the amount by which they are likelier to be scum :
P / (R + 0.5(P - R))
In words: The total number of players, divided by the sum of the number of replicants and half the number of humans. If we assume roughly 1/3 of the players right now are replicants, someone who non-reports is about 1.5 times more likely to be a replicant than a random player.
Call it the revenge of Blaster Master if you like, but that should be the simplest formula to use, so I don't intend any more math talk.
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Post by Santo Rugger on Dec 14, 2007 19:57:29 GMT -5
Woo whoo, scored me a date with a materials engineer tonight, and going to a hockey game tomorrow. I'll probably be around again on Sunday evening. Have fun guys!
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Post by sinjin on Dec 14, 2007 20:14:54 GMT -5
Santo: Read this postNote that in the future everyone I manage to nano will know about the wee in advance. That's why I won't say who I've nano'ed until they claim. And folks I don't know when or if the blues will strike a particular individual until they come out of the water closet. Trying to paraphrase as accurately as possible; the appearance of the blue flu is a function of initial nano-bot absorption rates thru the skin and subsequent nano-bot metabolization rates. Just so you all can live in my little world for awhile the blue whiz is a sign of the metabolized nano-bots being flushed from the body. How do you guys make this shit up?Cat you raise an interesting point I hadn't thought about. My device only distinguishes between humans and replicants. In retrospect maybe my role was supposed to be Robin to the BladeRunner's Batman. I cut down on the number of folks he has to investigate as replicants but my power is seriously information compromised so he doesn't get too much info too soon? WIFOM
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Post by zuma on Dec 14, 2007 22:33:48 GMT -5
zuma: what do you think now about the fact that drain bead didn't claim? I don't know, to be honest. I did not like the way she coyly hinted at having a power role. And that she did it so early with so few votes. I think if someone is going to claim, they should just do it and not make little hints. The way drainbead did it could just as easily be read as scum looking to take the heat off of them without actually having to come up with a fake claim. I feel it was a bad thing to do if you're town, and a possibly good thing to do if you're scum.
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Post by Captain Klutz on Dec 15, 2007 0:11:20 GMT -5
See Klutz, the problem I have with your analysis is that it's too perfect. It's like that old example back in school where the teacher demonstrates that the results of somebody trying to forge "random" results invariably look less random than actual random results. If there's a group of scum, there's no way they would be so obvious as to never cast suspicion on each other and never vote for each other. Because the scum have to know there's going to be somebody like you that goes out and does that sort of analysis. So I don't think you (or the entire town, for that matter) should be looking for a group of people that never casts suspicion on each other. You should be looking for a group of people that does cast suspicion on each other but never follows through. People that wave that shiny finger of suspicion but never actually vote for who they say they're suspicious of. Or a group of people that do vote for each other, but rarely as their final vote. Or a group of people that vote for each other, but only as one-offs and don't actively try to get a lynch on them. Atarus, Yes, I would have expected a lot more FOSing and voting for each other. But what I saw stuck out, and having it fit the Day 1 voting was quite a surprise. I will clarify that this was not intended as a scum hunting expedition, it was intended as an information gathering expedition. I didn't really know what I would see, if anything. I'll also add that I didn't pick names from the voting and then check if they formed a group (that method leads to lots of unconcious bias), I found a group from their actions and then checked it against the voting. There were in fact some minor suspicions but they never went anywhere: Episodeofblonde's throwaway Day 3 vote on Roosh I've already mentioned. Also, Day 4.75 That was the end of the Parzival suspicion. Tragic Day 3.186 She chooses zeriel. This was another late vote at the end of Day 3. Pleo had made his Rugger comment, but Tragic decided that zeriel was a better bet. And Roosh, who was was one of "the 4 I suspect most" was off the radar again. Parzival Day 3.23, where he does an analysis of CookiesAnd from then on she's off his radar. Here is another thing between parzival and episodeofblonde: Here is parzival's first post (Day 1.47): And now Day 1.79 from episodeofblonde: Here's the parzival bit: "Vote Parzival for Guv'nor He seems like he'd be good at it. Parzival '08! And I am slightly suspicious of him (just a gut thing) - I'd like to see what he'd do with the job." Parzival has only made the one post by this time, so episodeofblonde doesn't have much to go on. But she decides that she is "slightly suspicious of him (just a gut thing)'. This is like her Day 4.75 post (given above) where she was a "little suspicious of Parzival", suspicion that never went anywhere. So yes, there have been minor suspicions and a vote, but these have never been followed up. I do believe that my scum list is accurate, possibly except for... The weakest case is for Tragic, as she was a non voter on Day 1. In fact, Kat.v2 would also fit, however she (and diggitcamara) had so few posts that they pretty well escaped my notice. And I think that Kat.v2 is town for metagame reasons, however diggitcamara is still a possibility.
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Post by Captain Klutz on Dec 15, 2007 0:27:00 GMT -5
I checked and I think someone needs to do some more checking again. Up until Day 4, this group also included one other player as well. Episodeofblonde Parzival tragic Cookies Roosh Captain KlutzHmm, I guess that makes you scummy as well. Cat.v2, at first I thought you were having a gentle dig at me, as a way of saying that you dismiss the entire thing (and you may well have been), but I checked and you are right: the lack of major FOS's and votes between us, and my status as the last voter for zeriel, means that I do fit into that group. Although on Night 4, I really distanced myself from them, in a pretty big way.
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Post by Santo Rugger on Dec 15, 2007 2:13:22 GMT -5
To start: Yes, I've been drinking.
sinjin: good call. kassia's not being in a pissy mood was subtle enough that I missed it even though it's exactly what I was looking for. I had to have some skepticism though, because when I read that the second time I was still trying to figure out what the heck was going on. But, as you point out, she pointed out the pee before either of us mentioned it explicitly.
The part that's gnawing at me now is that, if I were in sinjin's shoes, my first reaction would be to zap people I thought were scum. However, upon reflection, her zapper is more of a tool to verify Colonists than it is to identify Replicants. The thing that bothers me is that, now, if scum leave her alive, when the endgame approaches, nearly everybody may have been zapped. They can claim it took awhile for their metabolism to process the bots.
I'm still kicking myself for "forcing" sinjin to reveal the extent of her blueness, because it seems that, after kassia and I, the claim is going to be much easier to fake. As I said, there may be one small piece of information kassia and I may be able to use to help verify a claimer, which sinjin may or may not know about the effect of the bots. However, it seems to me that, in the future, the claims must be taken with a grain of salt, depending on... well, many factors.
To end: Yes, I think I'll have another beer.
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Post by Captain Klutz on Dec 15, 2007 3:20:16 GMT -5
I'm happy to vote for any of the players on my scum list. For now I'll
Vote episodeofblonde
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Post by kassia on Dec 15, 2007 10:13:59 GMT -5
As I said, there may be one small piece of information kassia and I may be able to use to help verify a claimer, which sinjin may or may not know about the effect of the bots. However, it seems to me that, in the future, the claims must be taken with a grain of salt, depending on... well, many factors. I agree that we may be able to do this, Rugger. But we are either going to have to be extremely subtle about it or it will only be a one-shot deal.
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Post by CatInASuit on Dec 15, 2007 14:03:31 GMT -5
I checked and I think someone needs to do some more checking again. Up until Day 4, this group also included one other player as well. Episodeofblonde Parzival tragic Cookies Roosh Captain KlutzHmm, I guess that makes you scummy as well. Cat.v2, at first I thought you were having a gentle dig at me, as a way of saying that you dismiss the entire thing (and you may well have been), but I checked and you are right: the lack of major FOS's and votes between us, and my status as the last voter for zeriel, means that I do fit into that group. Although on Night 4, I really distanced myself from them, in a pretty big way. I saw this and according to popular town belief that would be the first night after the Blade Runner was killed and he could talk with the Replicants without worry. Which would lead to a change in approach from the godfather Nexus-9. (Yeah, yeah, I know, its all speculation). Because that would suggest that Captain Klutz was our original Replicant. Am I sure? No Idea I am more certain of drainbead or episodeofblonde being scum, but you are jumping right to the top as well.
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