Merestil Haye
FGM
Grudge Keeper
[on:Slumming it in the Middle-Earth][of:In the halls of Manw
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Day One
Feb 1, 2008 20:55:22 GMT -5
Post by Merestil Haye on Feb 1, 2008 20:55:22 GMT -5
Now Piratepete. Originally, I was looking at the case for a no-lynch. In the course of considering that, I came across Piratepete's post ( D1.190) in which he suggested that the results of no-lynch and the results of lynching a villager were approximately the same in terms of projected average number of villagers left as a proportion of total players after Night 1. He concludes that No-Lynch is thus a reasonable option. I conclude the opposite. If he is correct in his figures, then we would (apparently) be no better off by no lynching than we would be by mislynching, and we've passed on trying to lynch a Goon Today. [oog] Is that Neddy, Eccles or Hercules Grytpype-Thynne? Does anyone know what I'm talking about? Does anyone even care? [/oog] This led me to look at Piratepete's other posts, which brought up the issue of his votes. My problem with his vote for Koldanar I've already noted - he's basing it on Roosh's scumdar, but I don't trust that. I didn't look to closely at the Peasant Smurf vote, because it was 3am then. My impression of Piratepete from his posts is that he has a pretty good mind. However, he seems intent on hiding it under a bush, and not illuminating us with it. I'd like to see more from him - give him a fair trial. However, I have only three hours before the 24 hour deadline bites - and sleep is calling. Realistically I have to vote for one of the leaders, or I might as well vote no lynch for all the effect it would have on the game. You know what? Vote for the person you think is scummiest. Vote Hal Briston. For claiming that Villagers can employ a little judicious deceit. I want to read one more player's posts before I catch some sleep.
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Death By Irony
FGM
The Former Mandate of Heaven/Current Gastard Night Mod
I'm my own mind-altering substance!
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Day One
Feb 1, 2008 21:38:33 GMT -5
Post by Death By Irony on Feb 1, 2008 21:38:33 GMT -5
Wikipedia wrote:Cao Pi (曹丕, 187-June 29, 226[1]), formally Emperor Wen of (Cao) Wei (曹魏文帝), courtesy name Zihuan (子桓), was born in Qiao County, Pei Commandery (modern Bozhou, Anhui). He was the second son of the Chinese politician and poet Cao Cao and was the first emperor and the real founder of Cao Wei (also known as "Kingdom of Wei"), one of the Three Kingdoms. Top-of-the-page vote count: 7 - koldanar (Diomedes, diggitcamara, Roosh, drainbead, piratepete, atarus, Kat) 5 - piratepete (hockeymonkey, koldanar, CatInASuit, nesta, storyteller0910) 3 - Peasant Smurf (hawkeyeop, NAF1138, Pleonast) 1 - NAF (ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies) 1 - Hal Briston (mhaye)Chad counting note: I have Peasant Smurf voting for Pleonast as of post 314. I do not see an unvote. Matlab says: Peasant Smurf (3) : hawkeyeop, NAF1138, Pleonast Hal Briston (1) : mhaye koldanar (7) : Diomedes, diggitcamara, RoOsh, drainbead, piratepete, atarus, Kat NAF1138 (1) : Cookies Pleonast (1) : Peasant Smurf piratepete (5) : Hockey Monkey, koldanar, CatInASuit, nesta, storyteller0910
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Day One
Feb 1, 2008 21:46:27 GMT -5
Post by piratepete v2 on Feb 1, 2008 21:46:27 GMT -5
I will gladly admit that both votes I've made so far have been the result of a read-through or two followed by a gut feeling, which contributes to the accusations of opportunism. However, I do not believe that citing others' given analysis as supporting material for a vote equates having no reason of one's own. Agreement is not necessarily uncritical.
I will be posting in detail tomorrow (at work), as my new spreadsheet is coming nicely. However, since several people have problems with the circumstances of my last vote, and since the majority of people seem to be following story's plan or its successors, I don't want my somewhat-hasty vote influencing the lead of the vote-count more than it must.
Unvote.
British spelling fixed. You owe me your soul now.
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Day One
Feb 1, 2008 21:46:52 GMT -5
Post by piratepete v2 on Feb 1, 2008 21:46:52 GMT -5
Akh, spelling. Sorry, mods.
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Day One
Feb 1, 2008 22:19:20 GMT -5
Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Feb 1, 2008 22:19:20 GMT -5
Now Piratepete. Originally, I was looking at the case for a no-lynch. In the course of considering that, I came across Piratepete's post ( D1.190) in which he suggested that the results of no-lynch and the results of lynching a villager were approximately the same in terms of projected average number of villagers left as a proportion of total players after Night 1. He concludes that No-Lynch is thus a reasonable option. I conclude the opposite. If he is correct in his figures, then we would (apparently) be no better off by no lynching than we would be by mislynching, and we've passed on trying to lynch a Goon Today. [oog] Is that Neddy, Eccles or Hercules Grytpype-Thynne? Does anyone know what I'm talking about? Does anyone even care? [/oog] This led me to look at Piratepete's other posts, which brought up the issue of his votes. My problem with his vote for Koldanar I've already noted - he's basing it on Roosh's scumdar, but I don't trust that. I didn't look to closely at the Peasant Smurf vote, because it was 3am then. My impression of Piratepete from his posts is that he has a pretty good mind. However, he seems intent on hiding it under a bush, and not illuminating us with it. I'd like to see more from him - give him a fair trial. However, I have only three hours before the 24 hour deadline bites - and sleep is calling. Realistically I have to vote for one of the leaders, or I might as well vote no lynch for all the effect it would have on the game. You know what? Vote for the person you think is scummiest. Vote Hal Briston. For claiming that Villagers can employ a little judicious deceit. I want to read one more player's posts before I catch some sleep. I have also spoken up as considering no-lynch a viable option. I also agree with Hal regarding deception. Metagame: There are numerous prior examples of townies successfully using deceit as a strategy. There were even townies who were required to lie by the rules. Deceit, imho, extends to withholding information, even in nuanced ways, which is often the key to a townie's ability to prolong their own life. What else do you have against Hal besides things they each hold in common with me? An interesting observation I can already clearly see running through this game is apparent double standards and a tendency to find them suspicious at worst, and anti-town at best. The most compelling case/perspective has something unique about it. To not make at least an effort at outlining something unique in a case is something I am willing to consider suspicious at worst and anti-town at best, even though it does happen innocently on occasion.
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Day One
Feb 1, 2008 22:20:51 GMT -5
Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Feb 1, 2008 22:20:51 GMT -5
Gah...another theme...Cookies can't frickin' post without a follow up NETA...
NETA: What else do you have against Hal and Pete besides things that they each hold in common with me?
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Day One
Feb 1, 2008 22:57:29 GMT -5
Post by Boozahol Squid, P.I. on Feb 1, 2008 22:57:29 GMT -5
I will gladly admit that both votes I've made so far have been the result of a read-through or two followed by a gut feeling, which contributes to the accusations of opportunism. However, I do not believe that citing others' given analysis as supporting material for a vote equates having no reason of one's own. Agreement is not necessarily uncritical. I will be posting in detail tomorrow (at work), as my new spreadsheet is coming nicely. However, since several people have problems with the circumstances of my last vote, and since the majority of people seem to be following story's plan or its successors, I don't want my somewhat-hasty vote influencing the lead of the vote-count more than it must. Unvote.[/colour][/quote] Just as an FYI.... unvoting without revoting in the last 12 hours of a Day is usually equivilent to a No Lynch vote. What little evidence we have out there is all we're getting. You unvoting the leading vote-getter just means it's more and more likely we No-Lynch today, and give the scum a free shot at us. Great job.
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Day One
Feb 1, 2008 23:02:13 GMT -5
Post by Boozahol Squid, P.I. on Feb 1, 2008 23:02:13 GMT -5
EBWOP: 24 hours.... doh!
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Santo Rugger
Mome Rath
The Obviously Innocent Townie
The Rugger formerly known as Pygmy[on:BYAHH!][of:BYAHH?]
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Day One
Feb 1, 2008 23:59:41 GMT -5
Post by Santo Rugger on Feb 1, 2008 23:59:41 GMT -5
Well, I just started drinking, so I'm not sure how much I'm going to be on for the next couple days, so I'm going to back the 24 hour plan:
vote: koldanar
Sorry you died on the first Day of your first game. Unless you're scum.
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RoOsh
FGM
Former BatMod
[on:Wanna see a magic trick?][of:See You, Space Cowboy....]
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Post by RoOsh on Feb 2, 2008 1:57:07 GMT -5
Currently, I've read of Story's ideas on PiratePete on the last page, and find them interesting. Namely the idea of the 2ndary Alternative person being pushed up there by scum, which could be Koldanar. However, I'm still confident in my own vote, as much as mhaye may dislike it. But I could would be willing to switch to a vote between PiratePete or Koldanar in the final hours if needed. Of course, I'm of the mindset that's totally opposite of Pleo, I like lynching and then sorting through the Data. Because If Koldanar is scum, then I want to take a long hard look at those who've been one-off voting (which is just as useful as voting for a no-lynch), and then also check out the smurfwagon too. However, if Koldanar is Town, then there's that ever so task of looking through the Koldanar voters themselves. These are both two viable tasks that can be done, but only really in my mind, AFTER a lynch. Because the lynch will tell us which path may be the better one to follow.
Though Koldanar: would you like to make a Defense post? Or perhaps a final post explaining your thoughts, or if there's anything you'd like to say? I dislike people who go quietly into the night, because if you're town, can you give us ANYTHING to help us out? Your suspicions, your defense, your worries? Anything?
--And CAIS, don't worry, I'm getting that funny feeling from [/b]Story[/b] too right now. I feel like he's playing differently this game than before, but I'm not sure right now. Course, I also feel this way about you (more for in regards to me, but nothing much else, so I'll give it time), [/b]Pleonast[/b] (though he DOES have a 2nd game to deal with, so he's been spare here for a reason i guess), and Atarus (I'm just worried about this one. He's playing different) as well. I'm nothing if not paranoid.... But you all are just on my "I've got my eye on you" list, not on a FOS list or anything yet.... But just letting you know, you're not alone in your worries.
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Merestil Haye
FGM
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[on:Slumming it in the Middle-Earth][of:In the halls of Manw
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Post by Merestil Haye on Feb 2, 2008 5:48:09 GMT -5
Oh Light of Heaven, bless us with a vote count please?
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Post by Boozahol Squid, P.I. on Feb 2, 2008 9:15:22 GMT -5
Oh Light of Heaven, bless us with a vote count please? Pirate Pete unvoted koldanar, but the Rugger of Santos voted for him. So the vote count is the same as DBI has it above: 7 koldanar, 5 piratepete, 3 Peasant Smurf... and other assorted votes.
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Day One
Feb 2, 2008 10:23:19 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Feb 2, 2008 10:23:19 GMT -5
--And CAIS, don't worry, I'm getting that funny feeling from [/b]Story[/b] too right now. I feel like he's playing differently this game than before... [/quote] Argh. Now this, someone has said to me in every single game. I don't even know what it means, but apparently it is always true. Oh, well. Anyway, it would appear that we have passed the 24-hour advance deadline, and that the vote leader is koldanar. I have reservations about this lynch, because as I have stated before it has seemed undermotivated to me. But if we are going to follow the plan I proposed, at this time, everyone should be voting for the same player. And I can hardly expect others to follow a plan I'm not following. So: unvote piratepetevote koldanarWith the statement that I really don't understand why anyone is favoring koldanar as a target over piratepete, other than perhaps due to inertia.
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RoOsh
FGM
Former BatMod
[on:Wanna see a magic trick?][of:See You, Space Cowboy....]
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Day One
Feb 2, 2008 10:37:26 GMT -5
Post by RoOsh on Feb 2, 2008 10:37:26 GMT -5
So here's the start of the 24 hour Vote Count Finale for posterity's sake:
7 - koldanar (Diomedes, diggitcamara, Roosh, drainbead, [piratepete unvotes] atarus, Kat, Santo Rugger) 5 - piratepete (hockeymonkey, koldanar, CatInASuit, nesta, storyteller0910) 3 - Peasant Smurf (hawkeyeop, NAF1138, Pleonast) 1 - NAF (ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies) 1 - Hal Briston (mhaye)
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RoOsh
FGM
Former BatMod
[on:Wanna see a magic trick?][of:See You, Space Cowboy....]
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Day One
Feb 2, 2008 10:47:02 GMT -5
Post by RoOsh on Feb 2, 2008 10:47:02 GMT -5
Argh. Now this, someone has said to me in every single game. I don't even know what it means, but apparently it is always true. Oh, well. If I'm saying it, you shouldn't worry too much. As I understand that everyone plays different, and I'm just noticing that your style has not so far been similar to the previous games you've played. It's not an accusation, but it is a reason for me to watch. Here- these are the games I most remember about you:MII- "The best Scum Godfather sorta deal I'd ever seen. So very Townie though." Asylum- "Very Helpful Townie to me, but I felt it was So Townie it must be Scummy" -But that was my first game, and my perceptions were biased, as I loved to listen to you, but felt you were scum for it. FireFly- Arguementive Townie- this was you and... I can't remember the other person you fought with over numbers and such. Idle thoughts? Pleonast? :Shrug: don't remember. But you both were town. BR-You hosted. My thoughts on how you play- Normally I view you as a VERY strong Town player. One who is so Townie, that I'm inclined to distrust them because I trust them so much. That's the vibe I'd get from watching you in the originial Mafia games... when you survived a Night 2 kill that was. Even when scum, you were so townie that it was ACTUALLY scummy. So the fact that you're playing different, is just like in Firefly- you're not in my book, playing as the MOST townie person here. You're not setting off warning bells in my head while at the same time making me go, "but still... that's a very good idea." sorta thing. It may be that I've started to play mafia more, and have my own ideas, but I find myself not as trusting of you and your ideas. It's not necessarily that I find you scummy, but its that I don't find you as someone who is easily "Hey, this guy MUST be pro-town with the ideas he's pushing across. I must distrust him." sorta deal. So hope that helps. My statement was just an admission of my opinion, and what I think seems pretty correct, in that you aren't playing as you've played before.
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RoOsh
FGM
Former BatMod
[on:Wanna see a magic trick?][of:See You, Space Cowboy....]
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Day One
Feb 2, 2008 10:47:48 GMT -5
Post by RoOsh on Feb 2, 2008 10:47:48 GMT -5
We need 3 more people to vote btw. It takes 11 to lynch.
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Merestil Haye
FGM
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Day One
Feb 2, 2008 10:53:34 GMT -5
Post by Merestil Haye on Feb 2, 2008 10:53:34 GMT -5
Pirate Pete unvoted koldanar, but the Rugger of Santos voted for him. So the vote count is the same as DBI has it above: 7 koldanar, 5 piratepete, 3 Peasant Smurf... and other assorted votes. That's what I made it as well. However, with the prohibition on players posting vote counts in the thread, I prefer to base my change of vote in the last 24 hours on an official count. So I ask for one. That's all. DarkCookies. I know you have backed the "no-lynch" idea Today. So has Storyteller. You'll notice that, although I have added Story to my list of suspects, nowhere in that is any suggestion that this is for backing a no-lynch policy. I read Piratepete's post (D1.190) in the context of the no-lynch debate, then got decoyed into reading PP's other posts to find out what else he'd said and, to be quite honest, left the no-lynch debate aside. Advocating a no-lynch policy is not (in my opinion) a scum tell. It's merely how I came to be looking at PP's posts. Advocating villagers practising deceit, though, is an entirely different matter. I have to qualify it in a couple of areas though. - A villager should feel free to suppress truth if revelation would (in his or her opinion) aid the Goons. I already said this in post D1.178.
- If the rules of the game require a villager to tell untruths to maintain his or her powers, then the villager's lies for this purpose can be accepted.
I'd like to note in support of the contention that villagers should not lie the problems faced by Roosh in both this game and the Firefly game, plus the lynching of the Blade Runner himself in Storyteller's game. I'm quite happy to add you to my suspect list for that statement. It puts you at the same level as Hal in my suspect list, with Storyteller and CIAS a bit lower down. Happy now?
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Day One
Feb 2, 2008 11:59:27 GMT -5
Post by nesta on Feb 2, 2008 11:59:27 GMT -5
Next up is Smurf. I still find his early preemptive non-votes scummy. I'm also a little concerned that after I had given up on prodding him to take a stance he said he was back and would have something soon, but so far he hasn't. Huh? Since coming back on yesterday I've made a few posts, which was needed as a couple people had dog piled on me. In fact a post I made was picked apart by Story!! What exactly is it I haven't done yet? Sorry, I should have given you some credit for voting for Pleonast, but you said: And upon a quick preview I noticed I was missed. Hi Nesta ;D I hope to have your faith restored later tonight If you hoped to restore my faith I guess I was expecting a little more than this: The thing that has twigged me in the last page though is Pleonast, voting for a no-lynch. Not wanting to rehash that whole argument, but I find that highly questionable and so I Vote Pleonast
That isn't much of a case against Pleonast, even though I disagree with a no-lynch. It certainly wasn't a strong enough case to get others to vote for him, so it was a relatively safe vote.
I do want to give you credit for post 1.337, which was pretty much a simul-post with the one of mine you quoted. Even though it was just a defense post in reply to Story it's those types of posts, where you don't seem to be hedging, that help me get a feel. I hope see more of that from you.
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Day One
Feb 2, 2008 12:00:58 GMT -5
Post by NAF1138 on Feb 2, 2008 12:00:58 GMT -5
Shoot. I don't like this lynch, but I think on Day 1 a lynch is still better then a no lynch.
unvote smurf
vote koldanar
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Day One
Feb 2, 2008 12:03:54 GMT -5
Post by nesta on Feb 2, 2008 12:03:54 GMT -5
Unvote piratepete
Vote Koldanar
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Day One
Feb 2, 2008 12:59:59 GMT -5
Post by Hawkmod on Feb 2, 2008 12:59:59 GMT -5
What NAF said. I think Koldanar is a new player playing like a new player. But it is too late to get enough support for anyone else.
unvote smurf
vote koldanar
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Merestil Haye
FGM
Grudge Keeper
[on:Slumming it in the Middle-Earth][of:In the halls of Manw
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Day One
Feb 2, 2008 13:32:51 GMT -5
Post by Merestil Haye on Feb 2, 2008 13:32:51 GMT -5
I don't think we need te count any more, do we?
Unvote Hal Briston
Vote Koldanar.
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Day One
Feb 2, 2008 13:43:31 GMT -5
Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Feb 2, 2008 13:43:31 GMT -5
Koldanar is a newbie. If he comes up as scum, I'll be surprised, and it was a shitty play for the rest of us to make if he comes up town. Alas, there are insufficient people for a no-lynch, but my views aren't strong enough to want to swim away from the herd and face the consequences.
Unvote NAF Vote Koldanar
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Day One
Feb 2, 2008 14:21:13 GMT -5
Post by Hawkmod on Feb 2, 2008 14:21:13 GMT -5
So we have hit a majority right? The day is over?
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Day One
Feb 2, 2008 14:27:55 GMT -5
Post by piratepete v2 on Feb 2, 2008 14:27:55 GMT -5
Oh. Fine, in that case I'll leave the majority of my talking for dawn. Becoming the Nr.2 suspect in short order makes one very careful to check one's sources in any case.
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Merestil Haye
FGM
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[on:Slumming it in the Middle-Earth][of:In the halls of Manw
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Day One
Feb 2, 2008 14:31:22 GMT -5
Post by Merestil Haye on Feb 2, 2008 14:31:22 GMT -5
I looked at the rules after shifting my vote over. Yes, the Day is over.
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