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Post by Hal Briston on Feb 27, 2008 14:44:46 GMT -5
I see no evidence that you were referring to you and Rugger being on the same scum team. It sounds like you're back-pedaling now to cover your slip. Even though the implication I was responding to was that Rugger and I were both scum? Or are you thinking that storyteller was saying that we were town working together to kill the super-doc? I have a sinking feeling this is a bad move, but I'm done second-guessing myself this game... unvote storytellervote Pleonast
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Feb 27, 2008 14:45:43 GMT -5
NETA: "...either paranoia or bullshit or both."
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Santo Rugger
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The Obviously Innocent Townie
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Post by Santo Rugger on Feb 27, 2008 14:46:20 GMT -5
I see no evidence that you were referring to you and Rugger being on the same scum team. It sounds like you're back-pedaling now to cover your slip. Substitute "Faction" for "team". I get story's point about substituting similar words now, though.
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Post by storyteller0910 on Feb 27, 2008 14:52:50 GMT -5
NETA: "...either paranoia or bullshit or both." Both, I think. But I don't know. Something needs to happen here to change the equation; we're running in circles and I don't actually think any of us has anything particularly solid right now.
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Santo Rugger
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Post by Santo Rugger on Feb 27, 2008 15:02:30 GMT -5
NETA: "...either paranoia or bullshit or both." Both, I think. But I don't know. Something needs to happen here to change the equation; we're running in circles and I don't actually think any of us has anything particularly solid right now. Heh. Wouldn't it be ironic if nesta, Smurf, and mhaye were the three remaining scum?
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Post by storyteller0910 on Feb 27, 2008 15:03:46 GMT -5
O.K.
Without preamble: I ask that Hal, Santo, mhaye, and frankly anyone who is considering voting for me toDay to not do so. I further ask that no one spend any particular amount of time investigating me. Deep in your hearts you know that I am trustworthy. Many of you have said that you feel you should trust me; I think you should go with that. Your instinctive trust in me should negate any suspicion you may feel. I am not scum, and you should not vote for me, nor investigate me except in the context of investigating others.
Furthermore, I trust Pleonast quite a bit at this point. From this point on, I will assume that anyone who continues to vote for Pleonast, or places a new vote on him, is doing so for a single specific reason.
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Death By Irony
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Post by Death By Irony on Feb 27, 2008 15:05:55 GMT -5
Top-of-the-page votecount:
2 - Hal Briston (Pygmy Rugger, Pleonast) 1 - Pleonast (Hal Briston) 1 - Pygmyrugger (storyteller0910) 1 - Peasant Smurf (CometotheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)
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Santo Rugger
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The Obviously Innocent Townie
The Rugger formerly known as Pygmy[on:BYAHH!][of:BYAHH?]
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Post by Santo Rugger on Feb 27, 2008 15:09:52 GMT -5
O.K. Without preamble: I ask that Hal, Santo, mhaye, and frankly anyone who is considering voting for me toDay to not do so. I further ask that no one spend any particular amount of time investigating me. Deep in your hearts you know that I am trustworthy. Many of you have said that you feel you should trust me; I think you should go with that. Your instinctive trust in me should negate any suspicion you may feel. I am not scum, and you should not vote for me, nor investigate me except in the context of investigating others.Furthermore, I trust Pleonast quite a bit at this point. From this point on, I will assume that anyone who continues to vote for Pleonast, or places a new vote on him, is doing so for a single specific reason. Deal.
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Post by Pleonast on Feb 27, 2008 15:25:43 GMT -5
Even though the implication I was responding to was that Rugger and I were both scum? Or are you thinking that storyteller was saying that we were town working together to kill the super-doc? Here's how I see it. story throws accusations at you and Rugger. A Townie would think "I know I'm Town and maybe Rugger is scum who's making me look bad. But maybe he's also Townie like me and story is trying to being us both down." Either way, it's possible (not impossible) that you and Rugger could be on the same team. Instead, you outright say it's impossible you and Rugger are on the same team. A Townie couldn't know this. Your statement is a slip showing non-Town thinking. I was already suspicious of you, but that makes it clear choice for me.
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Post by Pleonast on Feb 27, 2008 15:27:41 GMT -5
"I know I'm Town and maybe Rugger is scum who's making me look bad. But maybe he's also Townie like me and story is trying to being us both down." That should be "bring", not "being".
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Post by Hal Briston on Feb 27, 2008 16:40:30 GMT -5
Here's how I see it. story throws accusations at you and Rugger. A Townie would think "I know I'm Town and maybe Rugger is scum who's making me look bad. But maybe he's also Townie like me and story is trying to being us both down." Either way, it's possible (not impossible) that you and Rugger could be on the same team. Instead, you outright say it's impossible you and Rugger are on the same team. A Townie couldn't know this. Your statement is a slip showing non-Town thinking. I was already suspicious of you, but that makes it clear choice for me. Do what you must -- I said earlier that I made a lot of moves that made me look like scum. I'm facing an uphill battle here, and it's going to be very easy for actual scum to create false scenarios in order to push me, a townie, into being lynched. You're doing an excellent job of it. That should be "bring", not "being". AH HAH!!! A SCUM SLIP!!
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Post by storyteller0910 on Feb 27, 2008 16:48:32 GMT -5
Do what you must -- I said earlier that I made a lot of moves that made me look like scum. I'm facing an uphill battle here, and it's going to be very easy for actual scum to create false scenarios in order to push me, a townie, into being lynched. You're doing an excellent job of it. Hal, are you implying that you believe Pleonast to be scum, and are you planning to leave your vote on him at this time?
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Post by Hal Briston on Feb 27, 2008 18:01:21 GMT -5
Hal, are you implying that you believe Pleonast to be scum, and are you planning to leave your vote on him at this time? Yes, I believe there is an even money chance of him being scum. What I can't put my finger on is your defense of him. If you're scum as well, then aligning yourself with him is a move I can't see you making -- never mind the fact that you really wouldn't know that he was scum (barring there being some element of the game that only scum are privy to). The question that remains now is if I plan on keeping my vote on him. I think that you'd agree that in this game, "trust me" is a very hollow statement. Your post reads very much like someone trying very hard not to role-claim, and that's fine. However, with two faction-specific docs being the only power roles remaining, I'm at a loss as to where the protectiveness toward Pleonast comes from. Assuming you're town, can you point out any reason to go along with your request?
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Feb 27, 2008 18:23:25 GMT -5
If story is sufficiently convinced that Pleo is a surviving doc, and wants it to be known that he is the other doc, his statement at least has wiggle room for making sense. There's a healthy amount of WIFOM and faction protection that the surviving docs have as cover during the night. However, I do have a few issues with that hypothetical.
One individual believing that someone could be a surviving doc is a very personal thing, as the apparently differing interpretations of Kat's claim illustrate. Plus, the very nature of the "no explicit claims or you turn vanilla" rule, really makes it difficult to put much of a case out there to convince others of why you might believe it. You're not going to get much help from the object of your belief.
Further, the way story phrased his post, assuming that he is a doc, he's basically threatening any of us peasants who don't happen to share his apparent convictions about Pleo. I, for one, would appreciate less threats and more convincing, if this hypothetical is at all in the realm of reality.
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Santo Rugger
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Post by Santo Rugger on Feb 27, 2008 18:34:51 GMT -5
I'm theorizing that since all the minor docs are in the same family, they may know who each other are. That would make sense, although I don't expect either of them to confirm nor deny this.
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Post by storyteller0910 on Feb 27, 2008 19:22:27 GMT -5
There are, at this point, two Doctors remaining. It is evident that Pleo is either one of them, or is scum. If it were possible to identify the other, then the question of Pleonast becomes somewhat simpler to resolve. I am emphatically threatening no one, and I explicitly disavow any certain knowledge of Pleo's identity. But if Pleo does happen to be lying, and someone out there knows it, it might be wise for anyone without that knowledge to leave the subject alone, to give a hypothetical person with more solid knowledge to share it safely. And if no one does, then I see no reason not to accept Pleo as a Doctor.
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Post by storyteller0910 on Feb 27, 2008 19:42:38 GMT -5
Also: I do understand that, in spite of my obvious innate trustworthiness, some may not wish to trust me. I'd urge such a person to consider reading my past contributions, particularly during the early part of Day Two, and consider whether those posts are suggestive of a trustworthy fellow.
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Feb 27, 2008 20:43:38 GMT -5
There are, at this point, two Doctors remaining. It is evident that Pleo is either one of them, or is scum. If it were possible to identify the other, then the question of Pleonast becomes somewhat simpler to resolve. I am emphatically threatening no one, and I explicitly disavow any certain knowledge of Pleo's identity. But if Pleo does happen to be lying, and someone out there knows it, it might be wise for anyone without that knowledge to leave the subject alone, to give a hypothetical person with more solid knowledge to share it safely. And if no one does, then I see no reason not to accept Pleo as a Doctor. Thanks for clarifying this. My first interpretation was that you would perceive votes for Pleo for the other "singular purpose", as in a scum's purpose of trying to get a doc lynched.
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Post by nesta on Feb 27, 2008 23:35:09 GMT -5
I finished my re-read of Rugger's posts. I was very suspicious of him before, but after my re-read I'm a little less so. There were a few things that bothered me, though. I'd like to get one thing straight. My voting has not been opportunistic, I've tried my best to follow the whole 24 hour plan that we as a town can't seem to get right. I thought I made that clear when I changed my vote, and in subsequent explanations Today? It was Day 1 and 2 that initially left a bad taste in my mouth about your voting. A quick recap of your Day 1 voting: 1.103 - You vote for Roosh without giving a reason. 1.110 - You explain your vote is because you don't want to be forced to skim Roosh's posts. 1.215 - You say you haven't yet read post 1.91, Roosh's monster catch-up post. 1.235 - You answer Kat about your Roosh vote, saying it's no longer about his posting style but is now about his OMGUS vote and his poor-me attitude. 1.249 - Part of this post was calling on everyone that didn't have a vote on the table to place a vote well before the deadline. [Date: 1/29 9:00 AM CT] 1.286 - You unvote Roosh due to his claim. [Date: 1/30 10:41 AM CT] --- No posts until --- 1.368 - You vote Koldanar, citing the 24-hour plan [Date: 2/1 10:59 PM CT] --- Day ended somewhere around 12:00 PM 2/2 --- This voting does seem rather opportunistic to me. Picking on Roosh because of his posting style is easy, but a very poor reason to lynch someone. After his claim you unvoted him, and then didn't vote for anyone else before the early deadline, despite calling out others who didn't have a vote earlier in the Day. You then come back and vote for Koldanar just a little ahead of the early deadline, citing it as the reason. Day 2: 2.59 - You vote for Roosh quoting storyteller and Pleonast, without adding any other commentary. 2.60 - You quote Roosh who asked why he should claim, and you respond that Pleo says he's lying. --- Back and forth between Rugger and Roosh: posts 2.63, 2.65, 2.75 --- 2.77 - You say that you assume Pleo is counter-claiming, and will continue to as long as Pleo keeps his vote on Roosh. 2.91 - You unvote Roosh after his full-claim, and chastise Roosh for waiting so long, and for not defending Pleo and making him look like a liar. 2.31 - You vote drainbead with no commentary. This puts drainbead at 7 of 9 needed to lynch. I left out posts that didn't have to do with voting on both Days. I would be happy to provide a full list if anyone wants. So again you voted Roosh, without much of a case. I'm know some disagree, but I thought the Roosh wagon on Day 2 was very weak. This seemed another example where you could safely jump on Roosh, unvote when he claims, and then wait until after the early deadline to show up and cast a guilt-free vote. I still find your behavior on Day 1 and 2 very suspect. So why did I say I find you a little less suspicious after my re-read? Before going back through your posts I considered your push for Pleo and then the switch to Kat to be in the same vein. At the technical early deadline Cookies was in the lead, so you didn't follow it to the letter. You used the lesser of two evils defense to to vote for Kat due to thinking Cookies is town. A slight point in your favor in my mind is that when Roosh pressed you on whom you thought was town on Day 2 you said in post 2.203 that Cookies was the one you had been referring to due to her sloppy posting and self edits, which was different than in the Firefly game when you were both scum. This differs a little from my memory of Cookie's style in that game, but since you had more of a reason to watch her posts perhaps it's true. Also, Kat's subtle claim went over my head, so I have to give Rugger a little benefit of the doubt that he might have missed it as well. Now for one of the hot topics of the Day. I think Rugger's point about Pleo assuming the worst at the start of Day 3 has merit. I originally thought this was a weak tell at best, thinking that Pleo might be the full doc and not have cared about names, but now we know if he is a doc he's a Zhang. It isn't nearly enough for me to think Pleo is scum by itself, and I agree with storyteller that Pleo isn't a good lynch candidate for Today even if we have some suspicion of him. This is better left until the end game where it might be moot. I point out that I think it was a valid reason to suspect Pleo on Day 3 because I now find Rugger calling him on it to be somewhat neutral. Whether Rugger is scum or not I believe he really does think it's a valid tell and that Pleo is scum, and he wasn't going after Pleo thinking he was a power role. So, after reading back through Rugger's posts, I came away with my suspicions about his Day 1 and 2 actions intact, and my suspicions about his Day 3 actions somewhat mitigated. The possibility that he might be scum who really thinks Pleo is also scum and Cookies is town has been giving me pause, but just based on my gut feeling about how he would play if he's scum I'm having a hard time thinking he wouldn't have voted for Cookies with both my case and the early deadline to give him a reason.
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Post by nesta on Feb 28, 2008 1:23:59 GMT -5
Look, guys, we've got 3 scum, and two people who can claim (as long as they're not hammered on before they're given the opportunity *cough*), so we've got a 60% chance of catching scum today. A question, to the four of you who haven't voted yet, who are you planning on voting for, and why? I went into Today with what I felt were a few solid reads, but I've done my best to evaluate them objectively and now I'm having trouble deciding between tunnel vision and good reads. If I had to vote right now it would be for Hal. His actions (or lack thereof) seem consistent with scum, and his hammer vote for Kat makes me suspect him. What's more, saying he didn't realize it was the hammer vote seems off. Hal is an experienced player, and it was very late in Day 3, so I have a hard time believing that he would cast that vote without knowing where the vote count stood. Even if he didn't realize it was the hammer, he should have at least known it was very close, and evaluated the case against Kat vs. Cookies to be sure he was comfortable with the vote. I've been cutting Hal some slack this game since he has had very RL reasons to not pay attention to this game. I'm having a hard time with him sitting back as much as he has, though. Instead of chiming in on whom he thinks might be scum based on a quick read of the thread he's just defended himself and then he cast a quick vote on Day 3 when there was a possibility that he picked up on Kat being a doc. Even if he didn't pick up on the subtle claim it seems, due to his lack of vote on Day 1 and 2, that he might have been happy to vote for whomever, as long as it wasn't him (or his faction). I'm not ready to vote for him yet because I still need to look back and figure out whom I think is most likely to be scum. He's currently at the top of my list, though. That said, I'm tempted to vote Smurf. The only reason I put him on the backburner, all the way back on Day 1, was because he hasn't done enough for me to gain any read at all. Mods, please poke Smurf. (He hasn't posted at all Today, right?)
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Santo Rugger
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The Obviously Innocent Townie
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Post by Santo Rugger on Feb 28, 2008 1:47:48 GMT -5
nesta, thank you very much for putting forth the time to check out all my quotes, I think you did a good job of objectively covering my actions throughout the game, and I agree with quite a bit of your subjective commentary, as well (minus the opportunistic voting, of course). To go back to the Day you mention when I had my vote on Roosh, then unvoted and saved my vote until I used it to invoke the 24 hour plan, I'd like to point out that I think that is very, very different from not having a vote on the table at all, and then using your vote to lynch somebody using the excuse of said plan. I'll admit I was experiencing tunnel vision with Roosh, and when his claim came I felt a bit like a character in Mike Tyson's Punch out who'd been stunned, and was waiting for the star uppercut* knock out punch. To me, that's fundamentally different than somebody who just holds their vote until it can be used to deliver a non star uppercut knockout punch. <snip>This is better left until the end game where it might be moot. I point out that I think it was a valid reason to suspect Pleo on Day 3 because I now find Rugger calling him on it to be somewhat neutral. <snip> I'd just like to point out that I only brought up in passing today that I'd be willing to vote for Pleo, and story calling me on it is the only reason I launched into explanation mode again Today. *For those that never played Mike Tyson's Punch Out, each character you boxed had a special punch combination that had a specific counter attack. If you did the counter attack correctly, you would either earn a star that could be used for a powerful upper cut, or said character would stand, stunned and defenseless, and a star uppercut would automatically knock them out.
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Santo Rugger
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The Obviously Innocent Townie
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Post by Santo Rugger on Feb 28, 2008 1:51:00 GMT -5
story, Kat referred to being a lost circus performer from some movie, or something to that effect, IIRC. Does that refer to a specific character who is or has doctor or protection capabilities, and that's why it was so obvious to you? Or is it because you saw it as a flag that said, "Hey, guys, I'm something special?"
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Post by storyteller0910 on Feb 28, 2008 8:50:56 GMT -5
story, Kat referred to being a lost circus performer from some movie, or something to that effect, IIRC. Does that refer to a specific character who is or has doctor or protection capabilities, and that's why it was so obvious to you? Or is it because you saw it as a flag that said, "Hey, guys, I'm something special?" The latter. Kat's quote was just Vizzini from The Princess Bride; had nothing to do with anything game-related, as far as I could tell. But she was clearly (to me, albeit apparently, not to others) trying to imply something about herself, and when she followed that up with the "footwear" quote it seemed pretty evident to me that she was suggesting specifically that she was the full Doc (if Roosh hated "shoes" - ie, had the power to protect against them - the only other character in the game with that same power is the full Doc. OK, I have a few ideas, theories, and questions; I'm going to separate them out as individual posts because I think I have a tendency to ramble when I try to consolidate ideas into single posts. But preliminary to that: unvote Santo Rugger
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Post by sachertorte on Feb 28, 2008 9:18:51 GMT -5
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Post by storyteller0910 on Feb 28, 2008 9:21:22 GMT -5
OK. I really have two points to make. The first one, I'll admit, is a bit out of character for me; I'm usually dead set against trying to figure out something like this. But I think it's worth asking the question:
Why is Pleonast still alive?
He has been tacitly discussed as a possible power role for Days now. Now, two of the remaining scum, if they target Pleo would have to risk the very strong likelihood that he would be protected, either by himself or by another Doc, so staying away from him is perfectly sensible. But for the remaining Shu scum, Pleo is a sitting duck. Roosh and Kat are dead, and with them any chance of protecting against a Shu kill. So I can see relatively little reason for Pleo to have not been targeted by the Shu last Night.
But here are some scenarios:
-1- POSSIBILITY: The Shu scum did target Pleo, and Pleo didn't die. This would explain the missing kill from last Night (which of course may be explained in any number of other ways, too).
IMPLICATION: Pleonast is scum, and thus immune to cross-kills. Further, someone (the Shu scum) now knows this.
-2- POSSIBILITY: The Shu scum did not target Pleo, because the Shu scum THINKS Pleo is scum, and doesn't want to waste a kill.
IMPLICATION: Nothing at all, w.r.t. Pleonast's alignment. But an interesting implication otherwise; see below.
-3- POSSIBILITY: The Shu scum did not target Pleonast, in spite of thinking that Pleonast really IS a Doctor, because the Shu scum thought one of the other scum factions might target Pleo and wanted to avoid overlap.
IMPLICATION: Nothing at all, w.r.t. anyone or anything. However, I consider this the least likely possibility. The Shu scum would know that the other two were less likely to target Pleo given the danger that he'd be protected. Also, I'm not so sure the scum are going to mind overlapping kills at this point in the game - in order to avoid a draw, the scum will have to keep the quantity of their kills under control somewhat. Note that if we mislynch toDay, and if the scum get a full complement of kills in toNight, by toMorrow the game will be down to one townie and three scum - and a draw becomes a virtual certainty.
---------------
So what does all this mean? Well, I'm going to focus on possibilities #1 and #2. They are certainly not the only possibilities, but they're worth discussing. Right now, each individual scum needs to lynch scum during the Day. They want to catch one another as much as we do, at this point. So consider possibility #1 - Pleonast is scum, and one of the other scum now knows it. What to do? Well, one possibility is to pursue Pleonast during the Day... as Hal and Santo have been doing. Or consider possibility #2 - the Shu scum suspects Pleonast of scumminess. Come Morning, the Shu scum would have to chase Pleonast, even if it brought suspicion on him or her, because if the Shu scum thinks Pleo is scum, then an unlynched Pleo means a Shu loss.
So: CONCLUSIONS - this analysis reinforces my suspicion of Hal and Santo.
It also makes me think that as a town, we will benefit tremendously from confirmation of Pleonast's alignment. We need to figure out if he's a Doc or not. If we can lynch scum toDay, we change the equation for the next few Days significantly in our favor. So I think that:
if anyone, upon reading the events of toDay, has reason to believe that Pleonast is NOT a Doc, it is vitally important that you SPEAK UP. Even if you risk your powers or your life.
Part III of the Manifesto forthcoming.
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Post by Hal Briston on Feb 28, 2008 13:12:30 GMT -5
if anyone, upon reading the events of toDay, has reason to believe that Pleonast is NOT a Doc, it is vitally important that you SPEAK UP. Even if you risk your powers or your life. My only case against him is the standard: He's working to lynch town. I don't buy his tale in the whole " Rugger and I aren't on the same team" bit...not for a second. However, that doesn't mean he's not town, just that he's making a bad call -- as are you in your case against me. But, like I said when yesterDay ended, I know things look extremely bad for me, and if I were anyone else I'd probably be throwing my vote my way as well. So...what to do about it? Depends...there are two possibilities here: 1) You're on the level -- you're a townie who had either secret evidence or just a strong, well-placed gut feeling about Pleonast, and you're working in what you feel are the town's best interests. 2) You're scum -- if that's the case, well, we're pretty much good and fucked. And I'll never believe anything you post ever again -- even if we happen to be be Masons together someday, I'll still work under the assumption that you're a scum Mason. That said, I'm going to go ahead and roll the dice by working under assumption #1. I'm going to throw my full trust at you. You're got two people on your short list. I know for a fact you're wrong about one of them...hopefully you're not wrong about both. unvote Pleonastvote Rugger
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Santo Rugger
Mome Rath
The Obviously Innocent Townie
The Rugger formerly known as Pygmy[on:BYAHH!][of:BYAHH?]
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Post by Santo Rugger on Feb 28, 2008 13:45:54 GMT -5
Wow. That's the worst vote I've ever seen, in all the games I've played in to date. Let me sum it up for you: I'm voting for Rugger because story said to, even though story's not voting for Rugger. Lame.
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Post by storyteller0910 on Feb 28, 2008 13:48:49 GMT -5
My only case against him is the standard: He's working to lynch town. You know what's really weird about this game? Even if you're right, and Pleo is working to lynch town... that's not really a scum tell, especially right now. Right now, everyone is working to lynch scum, even the scum. If you're scum, there's no reason to try to bus a townie that you don't genuinely believe to be scum - you can kill that townie at Night. You can't kill your enemy scum at Night. Our enemies at Night have become our allies during the Day, in essence. I have no secret evidence. I want that on the record as definitively as possible. I don't believe townies should lie, I am a townie, and I have no secret evidence.
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Post by Pleonast on Feb 28, 2008 14:11:38 GMT -5
I don't have much to add, except that Hal's statements have done nothing to alleviate my suspicion. My vote is staying.
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Santo Rugger
Mome Rath
The Obviously Innocent Townie
The Rugger formerly known as Pygmy[on:BYAHH!][of:BYAHH?]
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Post by Santo Rugger on Feb 28, 2008 14:22:04 GMT -5
Okay, calling it right now, three remaining scum:
Hal, Smurf, nesta.
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