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Post by NAF1138 on Jun 13, 2007 13:53:10 GMT -5
*whistles* Yoo hoo! Hey NAF...care to comment on Reply #9 above? Just seems odd you've posted to this thread a couple of times since then and haven't had anything to say about it. I did reply, sort of. Reply 11. I don't really know what else to say. I was wrong, clearly. I am shocked that he isn't scum, I was really fairly certain that he was. I don't know where this leaves me because if Idle wasn't scum, I don't know who is. He had more scum tells than anyone, by a long shot. I looked.
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
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Post by Blaster Master on Jun 13, 2007 13:58:07 GMT -5
Question 1 : If Idle is the Pirate kill, why go after him? Maybe they thought he was Steele. I'm guessing that there they have only a few candidates for Steele at this point (by analyzing posts after zuma's claim and weeding out the Pirates). I think they thought he was Steele for exactly the same reason that Idle thought that Zuma thought he was. Plus, knowing that the doctor would likely self-protect (assuming what Zuma said is true), versus going after a completely confirmed townie, they went after a mostly confirmed townie who had a potential to be Steele. Can I take partial credit for this? I'll explain... I was surprised by AZT and FCOD saying they knew what the doctor was doing, but don't ask them to figure out how. I started to wonder if it wasn't a play on their parts to get the mafia to look elsewhere for the doctor, looking for tells, when it was actually one of the two of them. Figuring the other mason was Pleonast, it didn't make sense that they could know that firmly that the doctor knew Zuma was attacked. THEN, I went back to the day that AZT claimed for BOTH FCOD and himself. Why do that? If he's just an officer, saving him isn't worth outing both of them, especially if AZT is the doctor, so it only makes sense that AZT did it because FCOD was the doctor. Logically speaking, as I pointed out, I had a suspicious feeling that Steele (and possibly the doctor) was among Auto and Mad. However, being convinced that FCOD was the doctor, it made sense to publically theorize that either he or Steele was between the two of them, because if he was, he could simply self block, but more than likely, the other one was someone else who knew more about what had happened that night, like Dick or a pirate. At worst, it would mean a simple crewman would get killed. I think AZT either figured out what I was doing, or tried to use it to his advantage, and publically lamented about me pointing out where power roles might be. Of course, the only problem with this is that it leaves us wondering if Mad is, in fact, Steele. So here's my solution, if Mad is Steele, don't claim, you can watch/block yourself tonight and the worst that'd happen is we get a pirate. If you're not Steele, then you're either crew and should be okay trading your life for Steele's, or you're a pirate/Dick and we want you dead anyway. So here I figure that Gunn is NOT activated yet, that the pirates targetted Idle, and Dick targetted Auto.
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
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Post by Blaster Master on Jun 13, 2007 14:03:48 GMT -5
Of course, the only problem with this is that it leaves us wondering if Mad is, in fact, Steele. So here's my solution, if Mad is Steele, don't claim, you can watch/block yourself tonight and the worst that'd happen is we get a pirate. If you're not Steele, then you're either crew and should be okay trading your life for Steele's, or you're a pirate/Dick and we want you dead anyway. I take that back. If Mad is Steele AND has no helpful information (like the identity of a pirate) don't claim. If you are and you DO, you should consider claiming because then we can lynch that person, then you can play chicken with the pirates for the rest of the game, ultimately resulting in a second pirate discovered and potentially blocked kills. OTOH, if you're a pirate and you claim Steele now, that would be dumb because, when we lynch whoever you finger and they show up as anything other than pirate or Dick, you're gonna get lynched REALLY quick the next day.
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Parzival
Mome Rath
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Post by Parzival on Jun 13, 2007 14:37:26 GMT -5
That makes a fair amount of sense, BlaM. My 'activated-Gunn' theory didn't really explain why Gunn would target Auto - I think he'd have as much reason to believe he's pirate as believe he's Steele (based on what you said yesterday).
I was kind of leaning toward Dick going after Auto anyways (possibly he was trying to help the Pirates find Steele by narrowing their list); to some extent I'm looking into what might happen tonight but let's not get ahead of ourselves.
My thinking behind Gunn coming forward is that if he did kill Autolycus, the pirates may go after him out of revenge. Thinking it through, they'd probably like to get the Doc or Steele first - especially if Ben Gunn's knocking off crew for them. In that case, Ben'll probably keep quiet (or be sacrificed to stop the killing?) IF he's even been activated. Right now, we don't seem to have more deaths than Dick + Pirates would explain, so Ben's still a nebulous possibility.
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Post by ArizonaTeach on Jun 13, 2007 14:40:22 GMT -5
Wow...that's...that's the best thing that could possible have happened for the town short of the pirates accidentally axing Dick. What's funny is that I was going to come in here with both sights set on Auto because I thought it weird that someone besides a power role or pirate would stay up to see what zuma posted. Heh. Betting that Dick thought that auto was Steele.
Ok. I've got to process this some. I have no idea why Idle was taken out. It seems that he'd be golden to keep alive because there were so many of us so suspicious of him that it would have been smarter to keep him alive. Perhaps to throw suspicion at NAF? Of course, since NAF went out of his way to make sure everyone knew what a crazy idea that would be yesterday, I don't see why the pirates wouldn't have killed Idle to throw suspicion away from NAF.
Either way, I was actually a touch worried all day that things were going to be ugly. Now I'm not. Funny how things can turn.
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Post by ArizonaTeach on Jun 13, 2007 14:45:25 GMT -5
You know what else I just noticed? One of the victims is a knife attack each time, and one isn't. Did we ever get any confirmation from Mal if that meant something or not?
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Post by The Real FCOD on Jun 13, 2007 14:53:11 GMT -5
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
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Post by Blaster Master on Jun 13, 2007 14:55:14 GMT -5
Ok. I've got to process this some. I have no idea why Idle was taken out. It seems that he'd be golden to keep alive because there were so many of us so suspicious of him that it would have been smarter to keep him alive. Perhaps to throw suspicion at NAF? Of course, since NAF went out of his way to make sure everyone knew what a crazy idea that would be yesterday, I don't see why the pirates wouldn't have killed Idle to throw suspicion away from NAF. I'm not sure if Idle's death tells us anything about NAF, I think anything it does say is just a benefit to the pirates. As I said, I think there were three people who were more likely to be Steele than anyone else, one of them was Auto (who is a pirate, so they obviously won't target him), one was Mad, and the other was Idle. Assuming for the sake of argument that Mad isn't a pirate (because if he was, it makes the decision obvious), there are several reasons to choose Idle, including deliberately trying to draw attention away from NAF (the pirate) or bluff and draw attention toward NAF (the crewman) or simply because they thought that while people were paying lip service to Idle still being under suspicion, they figured he probably wasn't going to get lynched without them revealing themselves. Of course, their other option was to go after the doctor, who would was likely self-protecting last night, or to go after you or Pleonast (likely unprotected), but since Idle wasn't going to get lynched, all the officer's information is already out there, it makes killing him the best choice by having a high chance of being Steele and a low chance of being lynched.
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Post by Hal Briston on Jun 13, 2007 15:00:09 GMT -5
Question 2 : I hope it's not too much open strategy to ask whether Dick would go after autolycus? Maybe he thought HE was Steele (for the zuma vote). I don't want to get them killed, but I just think the Officers seem like too much of an obvious target for Dick to pass up - especially after Sam's apparent confirmation, unless he's concerned about protection on them. My guess remains that it's possible being outed can be a lifesaver, at least for the time being. We have both the scum and Dick looking to eliminate crew. However, they may be avoiding going after a claimed Officer because they wouldn't want to "waste" a kill -- each thinking that the other will be targeting the Officer. So we see them both going out and picking people off randomly (or not-so-randomly...hell, for all we know it was Autolycus' "accent" that got him shivved). Either way, once Dick makes his chops, then the issue becomes moot. That may well be the case as we speak.
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Post by ArizonaTeach on Jun 13, 2007 15:08:04 GMT -5
My guess remains that it's possible being outed can be a lifesaver, at least for the time being. So, IF that's true, and IF what zuma said was true, than zuma is 100% responsible not only in protecting the officers, but also getting a pirate killed? I can live with that. Thanks, zuma! You're the best crew ally ever! ;D
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
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Post by Blaster Master on Jun 13, 2007 15:14:16 GMT -5
My guess remains that it's possible being outed can be a lifesaver, at least for the time being. So, IF that's true, and IF what zuma said was true, than zuma is 100% responsible not only in protecting the officers, but also getting a pirate killed? I can live with that. Thanks, zuma! You're the best crew ally ever! ;D Well, my guess is simply that at this point the pirates and Dick both think that getting Steele is more important than nailing the officers.
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Post by ArizonaTeach on Jun 13, 2007 15:18:09 GMT -5
Oh, quit ruining my fun.
I'd like to hear from cowgirl and Lakai right now.
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Post by capybara on Jun 13, 2007 15:23:01 GMT -5
So flavor text doesn't mean anything EXCEPT WHEN IT DOES (eg Steels defends himself). Meh. Ok, to address the Zuma and Capy sittin' in the tree thoughts,
He wasn't a pirate so unless he watched my Night one instead of someone else he wouldn't have known my status.
I'm not sure why he'd save me on Day one (which in any case would have been before there was a chance to nightwatch)--
it's possible that after that act he was trying to gain the trust of the Noob-who-posts-too-much who was making the suspected-town lists of those whose suspected-pirate lists she wasn't getting on (which worked-- I did defend him a few times-- my bad; I still don't know why, then, he voted to save me, however), and meanwhile set up a future indirect victim after his eventual death: postmortem bonus miles.
On Hockeymonkey's observations of my Idletrain votes yesterDay (post #24 last page), you'll note I jumped off that train to avoid a premature lynch (as several people did), and then back on when the instalynch option was done away with by Mal. Your skipping of those important points leaves out a bit of context.
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Post by Gadarene on Jun 13, 2007 15:24:23 GMT -5
Ditto that.
Here's a (mostly unrelated) question for everyone: would it be a good thing or a bad thing if Ben Gunn were to be activated?
On the "good" side of the ledger: (1) he'd turn from nominally pro-pirate (although I have no idea how much difference that would make in his play) to affirmatively pro-crew; and (2) he'd gain a nightkill ability that (in theory at least) would give the crew an additional weapon to take out suspected scum.
On the "bad" side: Someone with a nightkill ability, even if they're able to make an educated guess about who they should be targeting, is still statistically more likely to hit crew than scum. Having Gunn on the loose could potentially result in an increased rate of crew attrition, depending on the accuracy of his or her guesses.
So what do people think? I'm inclined to say the benefit of having him on our side slightly outweighs the risk of the additional nightkill, but I can see the other side as well.
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Post by Gadarene on Jun 13, 2007 15:25:56 GMT -5
capy:
Excellent pair of points there. He'd decided to defend you before he could have known your role. Fair 'nough.
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Post by Hal Briston on Jun 13, 2007 15:35:38 GMT -5
I'm inclined to say the benefit of having him on our side slightly outweighs the risk of the additional nightkill... I suppose it depends on what you feel the exchange rate is for scum to crew. I count 15 players remaining. What is the outside number for possible remaining scum? With Sam and Dick in the game, I can't see there being more than three scum to start (sure as hell hope not, anyway). That's five scum or proto-scum in the beginning, leaving three left. Hell, let's be pessimistic and call it four. That means that if Gunn hits three crew for every one scum, we're still ahead of the game. If he lives/stays insane long enough to kill six crew and two pirates, I'd be ok with that tradeoff, even if I were one of his victims. If your side wins, you win, live or dead.
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Post by Gadarene on Jun 13, 2007 15:39:26 GMT -5
I think I agree with this. Following this reasoning, then, and in the spirit of Blaster Master's sunshine argument, would it be fruitful to express our positions regarding the likely identity of Gunn, so that Steele or the Doctor might consider protecting him or her?
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Post by capybara on Jun 13, 2007 15:45:19 GMT -5
Steele and the Doctor have Steele and the Doctor to worry about already, don't they? Are they going to have to alternate nights protecting FCOD? I suspect that Ben's on his own.
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Post by Malacandra on Jun 13, 2007 15:49:21 GMT -5
So flavor text doesn't mean anything EXCEPT WHEN IT DOES (eg Steels defends himself). Meh. Meh yourself. Seeing some marks on a living member of the crew is a clue, not flavour text. The state of a dead body, however, conveys nothing.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Jun 13, 2007 15:50:48 GMT -5
I won't say those four words that most will expect from me. ;) Because I do believe that it's sorta low and jerkish a bit and tends to rub it in...however I will say merely this small bit of advice to everyone: Never assume or be so sure that crew would never act a certain way or say/do certain things. Because for all you know now, they just might. That's all. Have fun everyone! Go get 'em crew!
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Post by ArizonaTeach on Jun 13, 2007 16:00:50 GMT -5
"I'm not wearing pants?"
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Post by NAF1138 on Jun 13, 2007 16:05:15 GMT -5
I think I agree with this. Following this reasoning, then, and in the spirit of Blaster Master's sunshine argument, would it be fruitful to express our positions regarding the likely identity of Gunn, so that Steele or the Doctor might consider protecting him or her? Gad, what are you on about. Isn't Gunn immune from night kills as long as he is scum/insane? The only possible benefit this could have is telling Dick and the Pirates (BAND NAME!) who not to target at night.
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Post by Gadarene on Jun 13, 2007 16:20:53 GMT -5
...Oh yeah. But! Once he gets activated, or if he's activated already, he'd no longer be immune. I'm gonna drop the line of inquiry anyway, lest it seem like I'm trawling for power roles. (It's the opposite, actually...I feel like I have a good line on who Gunn might be, and if it would be helpful for me to share my suspicion, I'll gladly do so.)
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Post by diggitcamara on Jun 13, 2007 16:22:30 GMT -5
Wouldn't that be technically 5 words?
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
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Post by Blaster Master on Jun 13, 2007 16:27:41 GMT -5
I think I agree with this. Following this reasoning, then, and in the spirit of Blaster Master's sunshine argument, would it be fruitful to express our positions regarding the likely identity of Gunn, so that Steele or the Doctor might consider protecting him or her? Sure, we can talk about it, but considering he isn't activated, he has no information we don't have, so I imagine his tells will be minimal. Further, it'd be nice to let Dick and/or the pirates waste a kill on him. So, instead, I'd rather discuss options about what he should do if/when he's activated. As in, should he claim, should he not... etc. However, that's not really the pressing issue, we have a definite look into the minds of the pirates now, so I'd be interested in seeing where we can go with that. Can we glean any information from Auto's voting pattern? I haven't spent a lot of time looking at the votes yet, but it did look promising for some leads.
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Post by NAF1138 on Jun 13, 2007 16:44:37 GMT -5
Well I just checked the rules, Ben is only immune to the first night kill. (I thought he stayed immune for some reason) So I would say, if he is activated DONT CLAIM UNLESS YOU HAVE TO. It will just put a target on your chest.
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Post by NAF1138 on Jun 13, 2007 16:48:15 GMT -5
However, that's not really the pressing issue, we have a definite look into the minds of the pirates now, so I'd be interested in seeing where we can go with that. Can we glean any information from Auto's voting pattern? I haven't spent a lot of time looking at the votes yet, but it did look promising for some leads. I don't know how much his votes will help. I looked at who voted for him (posted by Gad) and who he voted for (posted by me) and it really isn't a whole lot of people. If someone has the time, I would be interested to see who he FOS'd and otherwise smudged. Turns out he posted over 80 times (who knew) which is a whole lot. Anyone on the east coast or abroad who is not a work have time to look it up?
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Post by Gadarene on Jun 13, 2007 16:52:06 GMT -5
Most of that is in pirate-speak, which is unhelpful (but possibly a giveaway in retrospect ).
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Post by ArizonaTeach on Jun 13, 2007 17:09:09 GMT -5
And let's not forget he didn't even play for two games Days. Hell, he might have even been lynched back on Day One or Two if Mal hadn't inadvertantly given a couple posters the impression he was crew (not that Mal intended that - they just interpreted it that way).
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Hockey Monkey!
Borogrove
This is supposed to be a happy occasion. Let's not bicker over who killed who.
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Post by Hockey Monkey! on Jun 13, 2007 17:13:35 GMT -5
capy:Excellent pair of points there. He'd decided to defend you before he could have known your role. Fair 'nough. Gadarene, I would have thought you would continue to think this through. It's possible zuma decided to investigate her because of some action she made on Day One, and learned her status, and then continued to breadcrumb to the pirates that he knew who she was. Could this not be a plausible scenario?
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