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Post by cowgirl on Jun 13, 2007 17:19:49 GMT -5
Oh, quit ruining my fun. I'd like to hear from cowgirl and Lakai right now. What would you like to hear? I am here, trying to make sense of it all. I am thinking about the fact that FCOD and AzT were so completely certain that Idle Thoughts was a pirate. I am not questioning their roles or asking for any privileged information. I want to ask what we should think of it but for some reason that makes people suspicious of me. I think there is a big difference between "X is a pirate" (repeated thrice, in bold) and "I think X is a pirate" and I would like to know why they chose the first format instead of the second. I don't think capy should be implicated because of zuma's chumming up to her. I'll read the rest of the thread now. Anything specific you would like to hear from me?
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Post by Mad The Swine on Jun 13, 2007 17:26:33 GMT -5
If your side wins, you win, live or dead. Don't you mean OUR side Hal?
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Post by Gadarene on Jun 13, 2007 17:36:23 GMT -5
One's side, Mad. One's side. hockeymonkey:It's plausible, but it requires (as someone put it in a brief I read today) "a tall stack of inferences," or at least one more inference than absolutely necessary.
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Post by Mad The Swine on Jun 13, 2007 17:48:02 GMT -5
Of course, the only problem with this is that it leaves us wondering if Mad is, in fact, Steele. So here's my solution, if Mad is Steele, don't claim, you can watch/block yourself tonight and the worst that'd happen is we get a pirate. If you're not Steele, then you're either crew and should be okay trading your life for Steele's, or you're a pirate/Dick and we want you dead anyway. So here I figure that Gunn is NOT activated yet, that the pirates targetted Idle, and Dick targetted Auto. I have no problem taking a bullet(or knife) for the team.I realise I am a target for my not believeing zumas claim,but since I was the first to target him in the game(I think) and always felt he was scummy that stuck with me ,even after his claim.On top of that,I was sure Auto was either the Doc or Steele and combined with Idle's passionate pleas of innocence zuma looked more and more scummy. My necks out there,they can have it...just hope some good comes from it.So mebbe I could have a little protection from the doc or Steele. COME GET ME SUCKAS!I noticed one post toDay concerning Autos voting and those voting against him,while I agree that pirates probly voted for him at some point...what I am curious about,from Day1, is who defended him after the Bandwagon got rolling.Sorry I can't check right now,heading out for awhile,maybe one of ya'll can check that.
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
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Post by Blaster Master on Jun 13, 2007 17:49:49 GMT -5
capy:Excellent pair of points there. He'd decided to defend you before he could have known your role. Fair 'nough. Gadarene, I would have thought you would continue to think this through. It's possible zuma decided to investigate her because of some action she made on Day One, and learned her status, and then continued to breadcrumb to the pirates that he knew who she was. Could this not be a plausible scenario? I dont' think we can draw any conclusions from his day one investigation, and that it's probably dangerous to do so. There's two possibilities: he investigated someone and them came up scum or the cam up town. Either way, what's his incentive to spread that knowledge? If someone is "confirmed" town by him, then if they are town, the pirates leave them alone to find Steele, if they're a pirate, they leave them alone because they're a pirate... and we learn nothing. If someone is "confirmed" scum by him... I'd just be . IOW, I think trying to figure out who he investigated is a fool's errand because, not only is it difficult and uncertain, but it won't really net us anything anyway.
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Post by Hal Briston on Jun 13, 2007 17:52:01 GMT -5
If your side wins, you win, live or dead. Don't you mean OUR side Hal? Nice try. If you're scum and scum wins, then your side wins no matter if you're live or dead. If you're crew and the crew wins, then your side wins no matter if you're live or dead. But then, you knew already exactly what I meant. This is just more of your usual scummy misdirection. I'll say it every time someone tries to pull it -- calling "scum tell" on something that plainly isn't one is one of the biggest scum tells out there.
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
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Post by Blaster Master on Jun 13, 2007 17:53:22 GMT -5
I noticed one post toDay concerning Autos voting and those voting against him,while I agree that pirates probly voted for him at some point...what I am curious about,from Day1, is who defended him after the Bandwagon got rolling.Sorry I can't check right now,heading out for awhile,maybe one of ya'll can check that. In the interest of full disclosure, I am probably one of the most responsible for derailing his lynching on the first day. I still think it was the appropriate thing to do from a logical stand point, it just so happens that the odds didn't work in our favor and he was, in fact, a pirate. Off the top of my head, I don't know who else was involved, though.
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Post by Hal Briston on Jun 13, 2007 18:00:15 GMT -5
If you're scum and scum wins, then your side wins no matter if you're live or dead. If you're crew and the crew wins, then your side wins no matter if you're live or dead. Actually, let me clarify that before Swine tries to twist things any further. That would read better as: "If you're scum and your side wins, then you win no matter if you're live or dead. If you're crew and your side wins, then you win no matter if you're live or dead."
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Post by capybara on Jun 13, 2007 18:08:32 GMT -5
Ok, so Auto's smudge and defense history (surprising how little there is):
2:333 Zuma's irrational hatred for him; Gad TOO helpful
2:371 for no reason vote FCOD to 3-way tie, unvote #372
2:384 votes, no reasons, to tie again
3:55: Votes HockeyMonkey for erratic voting
3:244 Defends Hal, resmudges HM, Zuma's posting style, and Gad's too helpful again
3:250 Doesn't think Zuma's scum, because that would be crazy
4:114 Idle's defense weak: could be Ben Gunn. Thinks Zuma's lying. Still suspicious of Hokey Pokey.
4:115 votes Zuma
4:120 Voted Zuma to put pressure on him; lying because he's too smart to role claim that early.
4:126 Defends belief in Zuma's lying, but isn't looking to lynch him
4:163 Apologizes to Zuma for being mistaken [about what?-- oh the claim timing]
4:211 Wonders why Zuma's so quiet. Idle's the best choice for a lynching.
4:217 What if Zuma's Ben? Maybe Zuma thinks Idle's Dick?
4:353 Defends NAF against Zuma-second-hand-scum
4:433 Gets on Lakai for lurking
Not a lot there-- a lot of puff posts, haven't noted his posts as analyst, therapist, or analrapist. Some attention to Hockey Monkey. Posted a shitload on day 4, probably to escape lurking charges.
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Post by NAF1138 on Jun 13, 2007 18:09:02 GMT -5
If you're scum and scum wins, then your side wins no matter if you're live or dead. If you're crew and the crew wins, then your side wins no matter if you're live or dead. Actually, let me clarify that before Swine tries to twist things any further. That would read better as: "If you're scum and your side wins, then you win no matter if you're live or dead. If you're crew and your side wins, then you win no matter if you're live or dead." Hal...you and MtS have a history of some sort that I missed? This whole exchange between you two is a little odd.
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Post by cowgirl on Jun 13, 2007 18:18:27 GMT -5
This is why Mad The Swine voted for zuma (day 3 post 10)
Seems like a very good reason to me. Am I wrong?
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Post by NAF1138 on Jun 13, 2007 18:22:15 GMT -5
Ok, so Auto's smudge and defense history (surprising how little there is): 2:333 Zuma's irrational hatred for him; Gad TOO helpful 2:371 for no reason vote FCOD to 3-way tie, unvote #372 2:384 votes, no reasons, to tie again 3:55: Votes HockeyMonkey for erratic voting 3:244 Defends Hal, resmudges HM, Zuma's posting style, and Gad's too helpful again 3:250 Doesn't think Zuma's scum, because that would be crazy 4:114 Idle's defense weak: could be Ben Gunn. Thinks Zuma's lying. Still suspicious of Hokey Pokey. 4:115 votes Zuma 4:120 Voted Zuma to put pressure on him; lying because he's too smart to role claim that early. 4:126 Defends belief in Zuma's lying, but isn't looking to lynch him 4:163 Apologizes to Zuma for being mistaken [about what?-- oh the claim timing] 4:211 Wonders why Zuma's so quiet. Idle's the best choice for a lynching. 4:217 What if Zuma's Ben? Maybe Zuma thinks Idle's Dick? 4:353 Defends NAF against Zuma-second-hand-scum 4:433 Gets on Lakai for lurking Not a lot there-- a lot of puff posts, haven't noted his posts as analyst, therapist, or analrapist. Some attention to Hockey Monkey. Posted a shitload on day 4, probably to escape lurking charges. So zuma and HM were his big targets. He mentions Gad twice kinda out of nowhere, defends me, and ends his anylitical life looking at Lakai. Anyone have thoughts?
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Post by Gadarene on Jun 13, 2007 18:35:18 GMT -5
I don't like the tag "helpful." I prefer "analytical."
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Post by Pleonast on Jun 13, 2007 18:37:31 GMT -5
Idle is Crew? WoW! I was prepared to lynch him toDay. At least I was right about Auto.
Back to lurking for a bit to figure out where to go now. But, my first impression is that last Night's deaths didn't help us that much, in terms of clues.
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Post by capybara on Jun 13, 2007 18:38:14 GMT -5
Ok, had a look at the day One fray as well. I don't know if there's much we can draw from it-- everyone who voted did it because of the lurking (some had additional suspicions) and everyone defending him, more or less, defended because they were against lynching someone for lurking. Some people show up on both lists-- this gives little idea of chronology. There are a lot of confirmed town on either list, a lot of back and forth, and the confounding factor of Kati and I also being in the gunscope during the same period. In short I don't think this info is worth a damn (anyone who reads through the second half of day One I think will agree), but here it goes:
Defense (including weak defenses, that lurking isn't a reason to lynch): Storyteller, Kyrie, BM (sub?), NAF (because of quick bandwagon), Cowgirl (rather have sub), HockeyMonk (same), FluidDruid (anti lurkerlynching), Mhaye, AZT, Capybara, Panama, Auntbeast
Votes, FOS, or offense: Pleonast (V for lurking, later reverses and joins above list), CaerieD (FOS, votes later, unvotes, then gives benefit of a doubt), Mad (V for lurking, unvotes later, then revotes later, the unvotes again later), Cookies (V lurking, later unvotes), Gad (V Lurking, later unvotes but still thinks he's scummy, then revotes, then unvotes), FCOD (V, later unvotes ), Kyrie (vote, later unvotes), Zuma (says he's ok with death but doesn't vote)
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Post by capybara on Jun 13, 2007 18:38:57 GMT -5
I don't like the tag "helpful." I prefer "analytical." His words.
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Post by NAF1138 on Jun 13, 2007 18:40:06 GMT -5
I don't like the tag "helpful." I prefer "analytical." Too bad! Now that auto has labeled you thus, you will be known only as helpful from now on. Shame, shame. ;D
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Parzival
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Post by Parzival on Jun 13, 2007 18:43:23 GMT -5
storyteller0910 was one of Auto's defenders early on (or at least argued that he shouldn't be killed yet). So I don't know if all that much about the Day 1 votes can be deduced. (Full disclosure : I was strongly against it too, though mostly because I agreed with what had already been said - at the time, it told us too little.)
As for the capybara question - IF zuma'd been a Pirate, I'd be almost dead certain that capy was not a Pirate; his statements were just too obvious. Since he was Sam, though, I don't know what to make of it - signal to the Pirates who he was, or trying to wipe some scum off on her? He seems to have played a perfect Sneaky Sam strategy - find out the power roles you can, and get lynched in favor of other scum before you accidentally get night-killed.
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Post by capybara on Jun 13, 2007 18:52:50 GMT -5
Do you think this scum I have on me is like a protein stain (ew), or more like grass or rust stain?
In other words, I'm not sure what all I can do to de-stain.
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Post by Parzival on Jun 13, 2007 18:53:36 GMT -5
Sorry - I got interrupted while writing the last post, and then posted it late before completely finishing.
To continue the thought - since Sam's strategy means he wants to be lynched, he may well have wanted to take down a crewmember with him. He also would have had to be somewhat lucky to pick a Pirate on the first day. I don't think this quite clears capybara - I'm just not sure if we can really get much from the death of someone who didn't know who's really who (except a few roles).
The people that Autolycus mentioned (or failed to mention), on the other hand, probably tell us more (even if it's in an exaggerated pirate accent).
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Post by ArizonaTeach on Jun 13, 2007 19:54:46 GMT -5
I don't think zuma intended to get lynched at all. He was as surprised as we were by the marks. He did seem to think he had some different winning conditions, though.
And cowgirl, the reason that question makes people suspicious is that it's already been answered repeatedly. By more people than myself and FCOD.
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Post by Hal Briston on Jun 13, 2007 19:59:20 GMT -5
Hal...you and MtS have a history of some sort that I missed? This whole exchange between you two is a little odd. Yeah, I've been pretty well convinced of both MtS and Lakai's scum status since Day 3. The two of them tried to keep the bandwagon against me going even after everything came to light. Lakai has been pretty much staying low, but MtS keeps up his little snipes here and there. If my wife is up for some computer time this evening, I'll go into more detail later. If not, then it'll wait until tomorrow. (Tricky thing, 1st-trimester pregnancy)
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Post by Gadarene on Jun 13, 2007 20:06:27 GMT -5
Got another big hearing tomorrow (last one!) and then I have to dash off an opinion quick quick, but I'll do one of those handy posting history things for Auto tomorrow afternoon. Not looking forward to doing the same thing for Idle---talk about a daunting task---but I will, if someone else hasn't done one first.
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Post by Lakai on Jun 13, 2007 20:09:23 GMT -5
2:371 for no reason vote FCOD to 3-way tie, unvote #372 This action seems fishy. He knew that MHaye and FCOD weren't pirates, so why tie up the votes by voting for Hockeymonkey? It makes me think that Hockeymonkey is more likely town. Maybe Auto got the vote count confused and wanted to kill Hockeymonkey above the others. If Hockeymonkey was a pirate then Auto could have easily killed someone else.
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Post by capybara on Jun 13, 2007 20:27:48 GMT -5
2:371 for no reason vote FCOD to 3-way tie, unvote #372 This action seems fishy. He knew that MHaye and FCOD weren't pirates, so why tie up the votes by voting for Hockeymonkey? It makes me think that Hockeymonkey is more likely town. Maybe Auto got the vote count confused and wanted to kill Hockeymonkey above the others. If Hockeymonkey was a pirate then Auto could have easily killed someone else. Or he just wanted to sand the vaseline a bit more. He seemed to do several things for perversity's sake.
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Post by Gadarene on Jun 13, 2007 21:02:39 GMT -5
For everyone's viewing pleasure, since I keep having to switch back and forth between threads. Post counts in parentheses. Confirmed and AliveArizonaTeach (164) FlyingCowOfDoom (82) Pleonast (47) Unconfirmed and AliveGadarene (250) capybara (229) NAF1138 (180) Blaster Master (129) hockeymonkey (118) panamajack (73) MadTheSwine (71) Cookies/tirial (67) CaerieD/Hal Briston (62) diggitcamara (61) cowgirl (52) Lakai (26) Twelve people who are unconfirmed. Out of those twelve, there are two to three pirates, one Captain Steele, one Ben Gunn, and one Deadeye Dick. That means that nearly half of the people in the unconfirmed group are power roles. Take a look to your right and a look to your left, ladies and gentlemen. And if you go with the theory that pirates are likely to diffuse themselves throughout the high-volume posters, the medium-volume posters, and the low-volume posters, you get the following tiers (which admittedly doesn't take into account real-life obligations and such, without which I'm sure I'd have well-night 500 posts by now): Three posters well ahead of everyone: Gadarene (250) capybara (229) NAF1138 (180) Two posters in the "middle": Blaster Master (129) hockeymonkey (118) Six posters bunched together: panamajack (73) MadTheSwine (71) Cookies/tirial (67) CaerieD/Hal Briston (62) diggitcamara (61) cowgirl (52) And, um, Lakai: Lakai (26) ;D Applying that oh-so-scientific "scum won't bunch" formula yields you a pirate in three of the four groups (if there are three of them), counting Lakai as a group. With Dick and Gunn scrunched somewhere in there as well. For what it's worth.
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Post by Lakai on Jun 13, 2007 21:17:34 GMT -5
Sweet, I get my own group.
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
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Post by Blaster Master on Jun 13, 2007 21:41:03 GMT -5
For everyone's viewing pleasure, since I keep having to switch back and forth between threads. Post counts in parentheses. Confirmed and AliveArizonaTeach (164) FlyingCowOfDoom (82) Pleonast (47) Unconfirmed and AliveGadarene (250) capybara (229) NAF1138 (180) Blaster Master (129) hockeymonkey (118) panamajack (73) MadTheSwine (71) Cookies/tirial (67) CaerieD/Hal Briston (62) diggitcamara (61) cowgirl (52) Lakai (26) Twelve people who are unconfirmed. Out of those twelve, there are two to three pirates, one Captain Steele, one Ben Gunn, and one Deadeye Dick. That means that nearly half of the people in the unconfirmed group are power roles. Take a look to your right and a look to your left, ladies and gentlemen. And if you go with the theory that pirates are likely to diffuse themselves throughout the high-volume posters, the medium-volume posters, and the low-volume posters, you get the following tiers (which admittedly doesn't take into account real-life obligations and such, without which I'm sure I'd have well-night 500 posts by now): Three posters well ahead of everyone: Gadarene (250) capybara (229) NAF1138 (180) Two posters in the "middle": Blaster Master (129) hockeymonkey (118) Six posters bunched together: panamajack (73) MadTheSwine (71) Cookies/tirial (67) CaerieD/Hal Briston (62) diggitcamara (61) cowgirl (52) And, um, Lakai: Lakai (26) ;D Applying that oh-so-scientific "scum won't bunch" formula yields you a pirate in three of the four groups (if there are three of them), counting Lakai as a group. With Dick and Gunn scrunched somewhere in there as well. For what it's worth. Interesting numbers, and while you did do a good job in splitting out the obvious groupings, I'm not sure it's valid, in that you eliminated the confirmed, which the scum WILL take into account. Gadarene (250) capybara (229) NAF1138 (180) *ArizonaTeach (164) Blaster Master (129) hockeymonkey (118) *FlyingCowOfDoom (82) panamajack (73) MadTheSwine (71) Cookies/tirial (67) CaerieD/Hal Briston (62) diggitcamara (61) cowgirl (52) *Pleonast (47) Lakai (27) The other thing that's interesting is that the "middle" ground is pretty well gone at this point. Is there a reason that most of those posters are dead? Perhaps because there's more in the other ranges and the scum are trying to keep our pickin' tough? In fact, last night was the first high poster that the pirates targetted. Thus, guessing there's probably three pirates, I'd expect one to be a manipulative high post count. Also, no surprise there's a LOT of people in the 60-70 range. I'd expect Dick and/or Gunn and probably a pirate are probably in that group of five, and I'd expect another interesting role between cowgirl and Lakai. Finally, there's probably one more among the top three as well. Of course, this is all biased because I know I'm crew, and I just don't think HM is scum either. So, between that, and just the general tone of cowgirl's posts, she's probably at the top of my scum list right now.
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Post by capybara on Jun 13, 2007 21:42:58 GMT -5
Of course, however dear helpful Gaderene, that assumes that the pirates have had a special colloquium on posting-frequency, and aren't just incidentally posting the way they naturally would and following their individual blisses (which might be randomly distributed on its own, though). Do we have evidence from previous games, oh veterans, that pirates take this into account? Is it indeed a pattern? (Asking because I honestly don't know)
And now we've identified the low-middle poster-pirate already, if this does hold. . .
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Post by Gadarene on Jun 13, 2007 21:45:25 GMT -5
Blaster Master:
This is where the *headsmack* smiley from the SDMB would come in real useful. You're absolutely right, and I'm annoyed I missed that. Thanks.
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