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Post by Lakai on Jun 17, 2007 9:43:25 GMT -5
Now I don't think there was any way anyone could have known Sneaky Sam's role except maybe Steele if he watched him, (and I don't think you're Steele) so if you were assuming by not lynching zuma or Idle you'd be letting a default scum wander around I can see your reasoning. This doesn't mean I agree with it. Neither of these are good things, and we want them to occur as late in the game as possible. This means under your scheme, allowing zuma (possible pirate) and Idle (possible pirate) to continue playing for as long as the real Steele could protect himself and stay under cover. I don't think allowing two pirate suspects to keep going for that long is really wise - especially when one of them turns out to be Sneaky Sam. In both scenarios we risk losing Steele (zuma dies/real Steele is forced to claim or killed). What's right with that? I see your point on Sneaky Sam. I wasn't thinking about that possibility when I posted the idea. I know we don't want Steele to die. All I was saying was we could wait and see if that happens. If it did, we would not need a trade off. Does the Day end today at 3 p.m. (EST)? If so, then I won't be around later. No role claims from me either. If I do die, I hope my death steers the crew in the right direction.
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Post by capybara on Jun 17, 2007 10:03:50 GMT -5
Does the Day end today at 3 p.m. (EST)? If so, then I won't be around later. No role claims from me either. If I do die, I hope my death steers the crew in the right direction. NOW he gets philanthropic? Laugh all you want, but I don't see you voting for anyone. What that means to me is that you aren't sure about anything you say. You just post, and post and post. Sheesh, that's a little anti-crew of an attitude? A measured and generous request to help the crew a bit is rewarded with a defensive-offensive personal retort. But this did make me go and review some stuff. 96-- Lakai agrees with eliminating confirmed data-- even Blaster then saw this as error. 118-- Votes for MtS on the basis of his voting for Zuma-- I've explained elsewhere why I think this is lazy logic. 129-- Hockey asks about the random pirate choice for killings. Lakai responds in 141 that they have little reason to choose one over another. If the target is thought to be Steele, isn't that choice actually quite important, as the pirate involved will be marked? 145 HM asks again how he knows this, 158 he explains that he read the rules. The rules describe the pirates picking the executor randomly? The waiting-out Idle and Zuma I agree was warped. My weak reasons for NOT voting for Lakai listed in 162 have been overridden. Perhaps Auto's snipefest towards him was smoke? Perhaps Gadarene's right about the slippery surface? He will call this an OMFGUS vote-- so be it. He's been more suspicious today than anyone else and is the best candidate and has basically dared me to vote for him, so there's no way this won't look OMGUS. Perhaps we're back to where we were on Days 1-3 and might wind up mistakenly lynching crew today, but if Lakai's actually crew, he sure doesn't act like it. For now at least, Vote Lakai
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Post by Hal Briston on Jun 17, 2007 10:10:55 GMT -5
Considering he's been well in my sights since Day 3, it's heartening to see others make me feel justified in my suspicions. Vote Lakai.
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Parzival
Mome Rath
Let's all strive to do our best today![on:forgot to log out][of:forgot to log in]
Posts: 201
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Post by Parzival on Jun 17, 2007 10:22:29 GMT -5
I know we don't want Steele to die. All I was saying was we could wait and see if that happens. If it did, we would not need a trade off. Does the Day end today at 3 p.m. (EST)? If so, then I won't be around later. No role claims from me either. If I do die, I hope my death steers the crew in the right direction. I disagree strongly. Regular crew are cheap; I'll gladly trade in a one-for-one, especially if it keeps a valuable Power Role alive & hidden. The most 'pro-crew' liar would have been Idle Thoughts (or zuma) = Ben Gunn, which wouldn't have been all that terrible a loss; it was also highly unlikely. Your plan had two people - one of which we know is lying - that we'll keep around and only resolve if our power role dies, an event we actually don't want to happen. Your casual expectation of his death also worries me. I can't tell if you're crew looking forward to the endgame or scum trying to keep scum alive, and I'll take a chance on pirate. I suppose no role claim puts me a little more at ease (but it's not like there are a lot of roles to claim). I probably won't be back to the thread for the final either.
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Post by Mad The Swine on Jun 17, 2007 10:27:36 GMT -5
Ok,I have thought about this for awhile...I think it's best that we get it out in the open.
I am Captain Steele.
Storyteller was killed by Hal Briston.
Just in case there are any doubters out there,read my posts I left enough breadcrumbs to open a bakery.Which brings up an interesting observation,...it's been hinted at or whatever that a few of you already have scoured my posts(BM and Capy) and to not notice,or mention I should say, Hal in your Day5 posts really makes me wonder anybody reading my posts shoulda picked up on those crumbs,yet nothing is said about Hal.Which makes me believe you DID notice and left that part out also realising Hal is Dick Especially BM who seems very eager to discuss pro-town roles openly ,but as far as I can recall,never really mentions the scum.
Hal is the only for sure right now but my action on Night3 has me a little concerned.I chose to Witness NAF,the message I got back from Mal was this...
Hate to do this to you guys but I gotta run downtown for a few minutes(wont take long...its a very small town),I wanna get this first part on the board so people don't miss it...
to be continued....
Vote Hal Briston
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Post by cowgirl on Jun 17, 2007 10:49:36 GMT -5
Huh. Well doesn't that beat all. Why now, Mad?
I have been wondering about Hal because I remembered that a couple of folks were speaking strongly against him but never followed up. I was wondering if folks were going to come forward with more evidence but I didn't have anything to say about it myself.
Lakai is still looking a little scummy and I was going to vote for him due to a lack of alternatives, but this is a promising alternative.
When does Today end? I'm going out for a few hours and don't want to vote until I get an idea of why the claim and whether to believe it.
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Post by capybara on Jun 17, 2007 10:56:03 GMT -5
Jesus, what now. unvote Lakai Ok, Mad, if you're not full of it, the reason one might have not paid attention to your anti-Hal crumbs is because you provided little evidence (and we can only work on evidence) and some of us (ahem, myself, that is) have spent this long just becoming less convinced that you're scum yourself and weren't reading your posts with the eye to finding who you were trying to implicate. Not that that will make you feel any better. Why now? I await your follow up on NAF (capitals! and FCOD's a boy!) with bated breath. . .
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Post by tirial on Jun 17, 2007 11:03:36 GMT -5
Well, I was going to vote for Lakai, but I'd like to hear the rest of what Mad has to say before I cast any votes. (Admittedly because I have been looking at NAF for a while.)
Just one thing, MadtheSwine: why did you claim now? You don't seem to be in immediate danger of being lynched, and after zuma there is going to be some doubt about anyone claiming Steele.
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Post by cowgirl on Jun 17, 2007 11:31:38 GMT -5
Okay, reading this over again, I have a few questions, Mad, if you'll indulge me. Ok,I have thought about this for awhile... Would you mind outlining your reasoning? I looked. You did leave lots of crumbs. I confess I didn't take as much heed as I should have, partly due to all that distractedness about zuma in there. You were also posting a lot about that; why were you so sure of zuma before the rest of us figured it out? Maybe it's the coding and maybe it's me, but I'm afraid I don't understand this part. Can you please restate? I may be misunderstanding this too but it seems to be quite a serious charge. If true I would like an explanation from Malacandra.
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Post by Mad The Swine on Jun 17, 2007 11:37:25 GMT -5
I claimed now for a few different reasons,some I probably even forgot over the weekend(too much rum), But ,one we got a for sure kill with Hal and if I am right with him being Dick,that means only one kill tonight unless Gunn is activated,if I am wrong about him being Dick,we got our second pirate. Nother reason was I really think I was already pegged as Steele by the pirates and certainly by Hal and depending on which scumHal is makes a big difference in what the Doc and I do Tonight.
Back to NAF,I witnessed him on night three the message I got back from Mal was this
" Like the dog in the Sherlock Holmes story, NAF1138 did nothing in the night-time... though it's up to you to guess whether that be a curious incident. "
Now it is possible that I just witnessed NAF and just like Mal says he did nothing...but if my witnessing failed and I blocked NAF instead the message has meaning. What do you all think?
Night one I blocked myself and received no reply from Mal at all.
Night Four I witnessed Blaster and got a reply of "You saw nothing"
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Post by cowgirl on Jun 17, 2007 11:49:24 GMT -5
Where is everybody?
Hal, what do you say?
Assumption: Outside of Mad's claim we have no strong candidate for a lynch. Everyone is voting Lakai but I think that in many cases it is because of a lack of reasonable alternatives. This assumption will be proven if people come in and unvote Lakai until we sort this out. and if not, then Lakai is lynched and we resume this discussion tomorrow.
Does anybody have an idea of why Mad might be lying? It might be to save Lakai's ass, in which case, if Hal turns out to be crew, we will have TWO strong lynching candidates (i.e. Mad and Lakai). I can't think of what else he might be up to.
We can test Mad's claim by killing Hal.
If Hal is town, then Mad gets it tomorrow under the accepted "lynch all liars" algorithm; after that Laki will look awfully suspicious.
If Hal is a pirate, then we are happy.
Any other outcomes?
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Post by Hal Briston on Jun 17, 2007 11:50:11 GMT -5
Just one thing, MadtheSwine: why did you claim now? You don't seem to be in immediate danger of being lynched, and after zuma there is going to be some doubt about anyone claiming Steele. Isn't it obvious? (well, no, not without knowing that I'm crew, I guess it isn't) It's what I've been saying since Day three -- both MtS and Lakai are scum, and MtS is trying a BS move to save Lakai's ass now. Unfortunately, as much as I'l love to spend all day making post after post about how MtS's "breadcrumbs" are nothing but little scummy snipes, it's Father's Day and I'll be spending the day taking my little girl to the boardwalk. Well, at least this confirms (for me, anyway), my suspicions that these two are both scum. If I've got to swing in order to prove it, so be it. Obviously, I'd rather not, but one crew for two scum is well worth it. As tempting as it is to switch my vote over to MtS, it seems clear to me that they're both scum, so one is as good as another. I'll stick with the one that's already in the crew's sights -- there's plenty of time to have MtS join his scummy buddy tomorrow.
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Post by cowgirl on Jun 17, 2007 11:52:16 GMT -5
If Hal is a pirate, then we are happy. by this, of course, I mean, if Hal is scum of any sort.
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Post by capybara on Jun 17, 2007 11:54:46 GMT -5
I claimed now for a few different reasons,some I probably even forgot over the weekend(too much rum), But ,one we got a for sure kill with Hal and if I am right with him being Dick,that means only one kill tonight unless Gunn is activated,if I am wrong about him being Dick,we got our second pirate. Nother reason was I really think I was already pegged as Steele by the pirates and certainly by Hal and depending on which scum Hal is makes a big difference in what the Doc and I do Tonight. Ok. Well, this puts us back in the Zuma-vs-Idle Day 3 position: vote Hal and if Hal turns up crew we have someone in the noose in the morning (perhaps 2 in a row). And you may be right in coming out now. Hopefully enough people will check in in time. Why not earlier toDay, or was that a product of gestation of thought? I think you're overanalyzing Mal being colorful.
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Post by cowgirl on Jun 17, 2007 12:03:19 GMT -5
Isn't it obvious? (well, no, not without knowing that I'm crew, I guess it isn't) It's what I've been saying since Day three -- both MtS and Lakai are scum, and MtS is trying a BS move to save Lakai's ass now. This is the most plausible answer I can think of. Question to the floor: if Mad turns out to be scum, does that confirm Lakai as scum and Hal as crew? If so, we should lynch him and save Hal's neck. But if we can't be certain of that we're better off lynching Hal and proving Mad's claim with greater certainty. Right now it is dead even between the two of them. Vote count:
Lakai 5 (ArizonaTeach, Hockey Monkey, Gadarene, panamajack, hal briston) Mad The Swine 2 (Pleonast, Lakai) Hal Briston 2 (Mad The Swine, capybara) panamajack 1 (Blaster Master) I believe we would get the LEAST amount of certain information by lynching Lakai and I would prefer one of the other two (Mad or Hal). I'll be keeping an eye on this (until 3, right?) and I will follow the lead of the Lakai voters to place my vote. And if everyone is out for Father's Day, we will go after them tomorrow.
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Post by Mad The Swine on Jun 17, 2007 12:05:48 GMT -5
I claimed now for a few different reasons,some I probably even forgot over the weekend(too much rum), But ,one we got a for sure kill with Hal and if I am right with him being Dick,that means only one kill tonight unless Gunn is activated,if I am wrong about him being Dick,we got our second pirate. Nother reason was I really think I was already pegged as Steele by the pirates and certainly by Hal and depending on which scum Hal is makes a big difference in what the Doc and I do Tonight. Ok. Well, this puts us back in the Zuma-vs-Idle Day 3 position: vote Hal and if Hal turns up crew we have someone in the noose in the morning (perhaps 2 in a row). And you may be right in coming out now. Hopefully enough people will check in in time. Why not earlier toDay, or was that a product of gestation of thought? I think you're overanalyzing Mal being colorful. Overanalyzing...lol... you are one to talk Yeah could be... Mal and I even talked about that,while I am leaning towards NAF doing nothing that night...I just wanted opinions on the message he sent me.
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Post by Mad The Swine on Jun 17, 2007 12:08:30 GMT -5
Okay, reading this over again, I have a few questions, Mad, if you'll indulge me. Ok,I have thought about this for awhile... Would you mind outlining your reasoning? I did somewhat already,I'll post other reasons as they come to me,again I have others but I didn't keep notes over the weekend I looked. You did leave lots of crumbs. I confess I didn't take as much heed as I should have, partly due to all that distractedness about zuma in there. You were also posting a lot about that; why were you so sure of zuma before the rest of us figured it out? Because he said he was Steele,he wasn't. Or did you mean before he claimed? If thats what you mean, just pirate hunting really,the early lurking and the one scum tell I mentioned about early Day3 about the "Why Kyrie?" question.Was I sure then,of course not,but those were two tells and that looked better than anyone else at the time,cept Hal of course,but I didn't wanna come right out and start pointing the finger at Hal right away...I waited til someone else engaged him to start breadcrumbing Hal...then of course the Hal,NAF,Zuma trio at the end of Day3,but by then zuma had already claimed. quote author=cowgirl board=general thread=1181754479 post=1182097898] I may be misunderstanding this too but it seems to be quite a serious charge. If true I would like an explanation from Malacandra. [/quote] I think you are misunderstanding...I am the one that ran downtown..for lunch IRL...sorry...I see I picked a terrible time to stop typing and go grab my lunch.
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Post by tirial on Jun 17, 2007 12:12:39 GMT -5
Well I was looking through MadtheSwine and Hal Briston's posting history. They've been at each other's throats, but I haven't got back to the start of that yet. I am still curious about why claim now - all the reasons you've given Mad were valid earlier in the game and will still be valid later. I just don't see the sudden urgency.
The only reason for lying as far as I can see is that Hal has been after Mad, but frankly that's not much of a reason for a false roleclaim - especially not one that's already happened.
The only issue I do have is that I am still suspicious of Lakai. As far as I can tell, Mad's roleclaim doesn't have anything to do with him (apart from possibly putting up another target to be lynched instead) or exonerate him, and if we follow up Mad's lead we need to make sure we don't overlook Lakai in the future.
I've kept asking about clues in flavourtext, but as everyone keeps saying it has nothing to do with the game, I'll take your comment on NAF under advisement Mad. Its not enough to hang someone on without supporting evidence. (Excuse me for taking your roleclaim with some scepticism - until you are proved right I am concerned about the risk of another false claim).
That said, I'm torn between voting for Lakai, and voting for Hal to find out what's going on with Mad.
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Post by cowgirl on Jun 17, 2007 12:20:30 GMT -5
So here's the critical question:
How believable is the claim?
Here are the four possibilities:
1. If we believe him, and he is telling the truth, we will get one scum (Hal) and save the Captain. Lakai's status would still be undetermined. I suppose it could turn out that Hal is scum but Mad is NOT Steele, but I can't think of how that might be. Also keep in mind that an outed captain is a captain whose days are numbered.
2. If we believe him, and he is lying, we will sacrifice one crew (Hal), and gain certainty about Mad and Lakai's scumminess.
3. If we don't believe him, and he is lying, we will lynch a scum (Mad), and gain certainty about Hal's towniness and Lakai's scuminess.
4. If we don't believe him, and he is telling the truth, we will lynch our Captain. Of course we want to avoid this, but he will have a target on his head now so we might not get to keep him much longer anyway.
My assumption is that #4 won't be so bad, but I am up to being convinced on that point.
In the mean time, I think #3 is the most favourable outcome.
Lynch Mad The Swine.
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Post by capybara on Jun 17, 2007 12:32:38 GMT -5
Cowgirl. . . that's an odd resolution. In what way is today's situation different than Day 3, to lead you to lynch the claimant as the best first option? I don't think this situation necessarily has anything directly to do with Lakai, immediately, so remove him from your math for a moment. We have: a) truthtelling captain versus scum, or b) lying scum versus crew (unless we think Hal's Steele) It's the same math as day 3. Your point 4 clause about 'well, he wouldn't be around much longer' seems like handwaving. Am I being dense about something highly complicated here?
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Post by tirial on Jun 17, 2007 12:44:53 GMT -5
Cowgirl, that's some odd logic there.
Saying that an outed captain is "a captain whose days are numbered" and the route you're taking with it comes uncomfortably close to saying we should lynch someone for roleclaiming. The Captain can still block and witness so his days may not be that numbered.
Frankly, even though I know his claim may be false I can't bring myself to risk lynching the captain. If we vote Hal today we might loose a crewman. If we vote Mad today we might loose Steele. Its the same as Day three with one addition: if Mad false claimed the mostly likely reason to do so is to protect Lakai, so instead of one-for-one (Idle for zuma) its a one-for-two (Hal for Mad and Lakai).
I am also slightly concerned that zuma may have been laying the groundwork for this - to make sure if the Captain did claim he would be lynched.
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Post by capybara on Jun 17, 2007 12:55:43 GMT -5
Cowgirl, cf. Day four, post 124:
Comment?
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Post by capybara on Jun 17, 2007 13:07:27 GMT -5
In fact, Cowgirl, more Day 3 fun: 148, in response to Mad's argument, re: Zuma:
228, during the Idle-lynchin' era:
Are you really arguing the exact opposite of what you argued Day 3? What variables have changed? This makes you look really dodgy.
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Post by Mad The Swine on Jun 17, 2007 13:18:14 GMT -5
Ok.if we don't lynch Hal we are in a bit of a pickle,I am fairly sure he is DICK,if he is, I can hunt a pirate without fear of death tonight. If we don't kill him,we are gonna be at big disadvantage unless Hal whacks a pirate again.One of the big reasons I claimed was my reasoning that Hal was DICK and I would be believed since I felt I left ample crumbs to back my claim. We MUST kill Hal today...not tomorrow.
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Post by diggitcamara on Jun 17, 2007 13:22:09 GMT -5
(snip) Are you really arguing the exact opposite of what you argued Day 3? What variables have changed? This makes you look really dodgy. Actually, I was going to ask a similar question. What happened to cowgirl's insistent questions about people who voted against Idle Thought's during his meltdown? I'll vote cowgirl for those.
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Post by capybara on Jun 17, 2007 13:23:08 GMT -5
Ok, Mad, can you explain why you suspect that Hal is Dick rather than a generic pirate?
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Post by diggitcamara on Jun 17, 2007 13:25:15 GMT -5
Ok, Mad, can you explain why you suspect that Hal is Dick rather than a generic pirate? Let me add me to this question. Or, rather, let me qualify it first: How do you spot Dick at all?
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Post by capybara on Jun 17, 2007 13:30:04 GMT -5
How do you spot Dick at all? Well, diggit, when a man and a woman love each other very much. . . Ok, so we have about 2.5 hours, correct? (I think I have my game clock set with Mal's time) Vote count, anyone? (I guess *I* could do that, grumble. . .)
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Post by capybara on Jun 17, 2007 13:40:12 GMT -5
Ok, looks like:
Lakai 5 (ArizonaTeach, Hockey Monkey, Gadarene, panamajack, hal briston) Mad The Swine 3 (Pleonast, Lakai, Cowgirl) Hal Briston 2 (Mad The Swine, capybara) panamajack 1 (Blaster Master) Cowgirl 1 (Diggitcamara)
Is that right?
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Post by tirial on Jun 17, 2007 13:44:30 GMT -5
Mad, one quick thought. There was only one kill on Night One - is it possible that instead of a miss by Dick the extra kill activated Ben Gun? If you did see Hal kill storyteller, is it possible he's Ben Gun?
(There are two blocks in play and a chance of Dick missing, which also allows for all the permutations of kills we've seen whether there are two night killers or three in play. )
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