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Day Six
Jun 19, 2007 11:54:33 GMT -5
Post by diggitcamara on Jun 19, 2007 11:54:33 GMT -5
Just wanted to chime in that I'm following along, but not willing to go after anyone yet to avoid a bandwagon effect. Same here. If you have been following M3... well, let's just say that I feel like Charlie Brown at the end of the 9th inning. I'll try to wrap it up soon, but it depends on the other two players as well.
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Day Six
Jun 19, 2007 12:02:20 GMT -5
Post by Malacandra on Jun 19, 2007 12:02:20 GMT -5
We're not supposed to read into the color commentary, but yesterday was one case where we were supposed to get something, weren't we? I don't know if the 'unused knives' in the rule description was intended to tell us whether Dick had become a Pirate yet, or if that actually was just more flavor text, and we don't know his status for sure. Correct. You should have been told that Hal Briston was Dick Deadeye (Unaligned).
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Day Six
Jun 19, 2007 12:16:49 GMT -5
Post by diggitcamara on Jun 19, 2007 12:16:49 GMT -5
(snip) Also, pirates most certainly would vote for their own here and there; I know because I did in M2. Your argument that you are crew because Auto voted for you is weak and scummy, IMO. I voted for you twice, in Days 2 and 3. I didn't forget about you, I only put voting for you aside because there were better lynch candidates on Days 4 and 5. Right now, I'm not seeing anything to go on for today's lynchee, so until some other information surfaces, I'm going to Vote hockeymonkey. --FCOD (color removed) Nope. Can't work. Remember this post? I tied up the votes between MHayes, FCoD and hockeymonkey. After a bit of kerfluffle (due to Pleonast's presumable protection of FCoD), autolycus tied it again by voting for hockeymonkey... As I surmised at the time, someone might have intervened in this brewhaha to save his/her partner's neck (and, indeed, FCoD did), but I simply can't see a pirate tying a vote and thus endangering a known fellow pirate.
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
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Day Six
Jun 19, 2007 12:23:40 GMT -5
Post by Blaster Master on Jun 19, 2007 12:23:40 GMT -5
I don't think Hal should share any information he has from his previous scum-ridden life...It wouldn't be fair. I think you should rest secure in the knowledge that I'm on the case. [GAME OFF]Of course, I leave the decision of the Mal and his mod wisdom, but what has me concerned is that, while Hal wasn't aligned, he does still have information that neither tirial nor any other replacement would have. Thus, if he comes back as a pirate... no harm done, because they knew who they were targetting and already know who he killed. OTOH, if he comes back as a citizen, we have a somewhat milder version of the whole Idle Thoughts debacle from M3. Which is somewhat of an advantage depending on what side he is. That is, if he's a pirate, he can lie about who he targetted to throw off the town; and if he's a citizen, we now have "tainted" information that we shouldn't have. And if he's forbayed to say anything either way the, especially if he's a citizen, we may end up with a situation where he looks like he's drawing on spurious logic as a vanilla citizen, when it's not, but he simply cannot share the basis of his reasoning. [GAME ON]
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Day Six
Jun 19, 2007 12:24:04 GMT -5
Post by sirblah on Jun 19, 2007 12:24:04 GMT -5
I don't think Hal should share any information he has from his previous scum-ridden life...It wouldn't be fair. Agreed... Gaa...I originally went into a lot more detail, but I might have been skirting a line I shouldn't have. I'm just going to play it safe and leave it at "Agreed".
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Parzival
Mome Rath
Let's all strive to do our best today![on:forgot to log out][of:forgot to log in]
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Day Six
Jun 19, 2007 12:30:25 GMT -5
Post by Parzival on Jun 19, 2007 12:30:25 GMT -5
Correct. You should have been told that Hal Briston was Dick Deadeye (Unaligned). Okay, a minor issue, but good to know (for me, at least). In light of this (and reconsidering what I said earlier), it does seem more likely that Pirates would not want to see Dick go, so that they could share information. It also means that the single-night kills were all Pirate for sure (that was the working assumption), barring an extremely bizarre sequence where Ben has been activated and consistently blocked.
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Day Six
Jun 19, 2007 12:32:41 GMT -5
Post by sirblah on Jun 19, 2007 12:32:41 GMT -5
Blaster Master - this is the first time I have done so. You can see in the voting records that I have posted that I do not list myself as confirmed. I have the knowledge that I am crew. I've also been on every single lynch in the game. Something which I believe a Pirate would try very hard NOT to do. I am aware of my part in the information and yet I still choose to share it. Again, if I were a Pirate, I would not do. I can in fact argue that I am crew because Autolycus had an active vote on me at the end of Days Two and Three when I was about to be lynched BOTH times. A Pirate tried to kill me twice. I find it useful to try to narrow down lists with specific criteria, and I post my data so other crew members can benefit from it if they choose. You can certainly argue that you're crew. What you can't do is point to voting patterns and say "See? This removes any possibility of me being scum. So since you all now know that I'm crew, I'll put myself on the 'confirmed crew' part of the chart". If simply doesn't work that way. Scum constantly vote for scum -- it's just part of the game. I'd look at putting yourself in the "confirmed crew" category as some sort of scummy attempt at the Jedi mind trick more than a crew move. I'm not saying you are scum, but thinking that that thought shouldn't even be in any of our heads just don't float right.
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Hockey Monkey!
Borogrove
This is supposed to be a happy occasion. Let's not bicker over who killed who.
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Day Six
Jun 19, 2007 13:08:07 GMT -5
Post by Hockey Monkey! on Jun 19, 2007 13:08:07 GMT -5
Let me reword this a bit for Capybara, Blaster Master, and FCOD: 1. Working on the assumption My theory is that pirates would not want to kill Dick, and that they had good reason to believe he was Dick, I think we may have had a full on crew lynch of Hal Briston. I did have a WTF? moment when cowgirl voted for MTS, but maybe she was confused. Still not sure on that one. 2. My theory is that some pirates participated in the lynchings. Going back to voting records (which I am sure y'all are so tired of by now ;D), if we look at the lynches and take out the known crew and confirmed (I am known to myself as crew) then that leaves us with the unknown members. I don't think Katiroo's, MHaye's, or Auntbeast's lynchings were entirely crew driven. We know everyone voted for zuma, and I just stated that I think Hal's was probably a crew lynch. That leaves us with a small pool of candidates for pirates that participated in, or drove a lynch. Mind you, I'm not looking at reasons behind a vote, just that it is there. I'm also not accusing anyone here, just pointing out that in this group I think there are 2-3 bad guys. I think the only person in this group that I have voiced an opinion on is panamajack. The others have had little pings on my scumdar, but nothing that took precedence over whatever else was going in that Day. panamajack (3) Katiroo, Auntbeast, zuma tirial (2) Katiroo, zuma Gadarene (3) Katiroo, MHaye, zuma NAF1138 (3) Katiroo, Auntbeast, zuma Blaster Master (3) MHaye, Auntbeast, zuma capybara (2) zuma, Hal Briston cowgirl (2) zuma, Hal Briston Hockey Monkey (5!!!) Katiroo, Auntbeast, Mhaye, zuma, and Hal Briston Previously, I have been working on the zero bandwagon group. Now I am shifting focus. (Can y'all tell I like statistics?) 3. My guess is that My theory is the Pirates will start to kill off the Officers now so as to keep the pool of confirmed to a minimum. The more unconfirmed they kill, the more we can narrow down who the Pirates are. I think this means for us (crew) that we are going to have to be careful pretty much from here on out that we lynch scum. It's a very good thing that Dick is gone and we only have to worry about losing one crewman to the night. I don't know if it will be a good thing or not to have Gunn activated at this point. It would give us one no kill night, but then the possiblity of another free-agent killer on the loose is not appealing to me. 4. Now who do we have left in the game? Blaster Master capybara tirial/Hal cowgirl diggitcamara Gadarene Lakai NAF1138 panamajack Hockey Monkey FCOD - Officer Pleonast - Officer MadTheSwine - Capt. Steele So we are still looking for Flint, Gunn, and one or two vanilla Pirates, with the remainder being vanilla crew. 5. Just because I haven't brought up Lakai yet doesn't mean I've changed my mind about him. Is that all better now?? If you all want me lynched, please, by all means. I spent a lot of time compiling this data and thinking about my theories, so if anyone wants to, you know, take a look at what I actually said, that would be great. Forgive me for doing a shitload of legwork.
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Day Six
Jun 19, 2007 13:31:19 GMT -5
Post by NAF1138 on Jun 19, 2007 13:31:19 GMT -5
Blaster Master - this is the first time I have done so. You can see in the voting records that I have posted that I do not list myself as confirmed. I have the knowledge that I am crew. I've also been on every single lynch in the game. Something which I believe a Pirate would try very hard NOT to do. I am aware of my part in the information and yet I still choose to share it. Again, if I were a Pirate, I would not do. I can in fact argue that I am crew because Autolycus had an active vote on me at the end of Days Two and Three when I was about to be lynched BOTH times. A Pirate tried to kill me twice. I find it useful to try to narrow down lists with specific criteria, and I post my data so other crew members can benefit from it if they choose. You can certainly argue that you're crew. What you can't do is point to voting patterns and say "See? This removes any possibility of me being scum. So since you all now know that I'm crew, I'll put myself on the 'confirmed crew' part of the chart". If simply doesn't work that way. Scum constantly vote for scum -- it's just part of the game. I'd look at putting yourself in the "confirmed crew" category as some sort of scummy attempt at the Jedi mind trick more than a crew move. I'm not saying you are scum, but thinking that that thought shouldn't even be in any of our heads just don't float right. I totally agree with you, Sir (I am going to have so much fun quoting and talking to you ;D) but if HM is scum, she is the worst scum player in the history of the game. Maybe that makes her actually the best scum player...I don't know. That isn't the point. The point is, diggit is right in saying that FCoD's case doesn't hold together. Add to that the fact that she put her head on the chopping block in D3 (or D2, I can't quite remember which anymore) and actually voted in a manner that at the time seemed guaranteed to kill her...I can't believe any rational scum would behave like that.
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
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Day Six
Jun 19, 2007 13:31:39 GMT -5
Post by Blaster Master on Jun 19, 2007 13:31:39 GMT -5
HM, relax. My point wasn't "Look at this scummy move! Look, she's so scummy!" It was more of a "Hey, I can't really analyze what you gave us because some information is missing. FTR, you are fairly low on my suspicion list. I think, as you point out, that the way Autolycus went after you combined with your voting record does a good job of dispelling a lot of the suspicion that surrounds you. The point still remains, however, that we cannot detect patterns if we're looking through blinders, and considering that your status is far less certian than FCOD, MTS, and Pleonast, we would be fools to ignore it. Remember, I made a similar point to Gadarene for when he left off confirmed crew for the same reason. That said, I'm going to take a look at what you posted, with consideration of other factors (like reasoning, timing, lynchee's status, etc.) and see what I can make of it.
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Day Six
Jun 19, 2007 13:34:08 GMT -5
Post by The Real FCOD on Jun 19, 2007 13:34:08 GMT -5
Thanks for pointing that post out to me. I believe I was flying to CA during that whole debacle, so I missed some important events.
Unvote hockeymonkey.
--FCOD
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Day Six
Jun 19, 2007 13:41:35 GMT -5
Post by diggitcamara on Jun 19, 2007 13:41:35 GMT -5
Thanks for pointing that post out to me. I believe I was flying to CA during that whole debacle, so I missed some important events. Unvote hockeymonkey.--FCOD You talkin' to me?
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Hockey Monkey!
Borogrove
This is supposed to be a happy occasion. Let's not bicker over who killed who.
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Day Six
Jun 19, 2007 13:59:20 GMT -5
Post by Hockey Monkey! on Jun 19, 2007 13:59:20 GMT -5
Sorry, I did get my panties in a bunch there for a minute. This game does tend to elicit emotions from people, eh? OK, I'm relaxed...for now.
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Day Six
Jun 19, 2007 14:11:40 GMT -5
Post by Lakai on Jun 19, 2007 14:11:40 GMT -5
Maybe I missed it, but is there any reason we don't know who the doctor has protected in the past?
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Day Six
Jun 19, 2007 14:26:21 GMT -5
Post by The Real FCOD on Jun 19, 2007 14:26:21 GMT -5
Yes. Maybe I missed it, but is there any reason we don't know who the doctor has protected in the past? I'd rather not say, as it might give the pirates a clue as to the way I think. However, if someone can give me a good reason why it would benefit the town to disclose my targets I will. --FCOD
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Day Six
Jun 19, 2007 14:38:36 GMT -5
Post by NAF1138 on Jun 19, 2007 14:38:36 GMT -5
I'd rather not say, as it might give the pirates a clue as to the way I think. However, if someone can give me a good reason why it would benefit the town to disclose my targets I will. --FCOD I can't think of a good reason unless you think that you know who the pirates are targeting. If you have had a couple of successful blocks (and it would seem that you have had at least one) it might be good to know who the target that night was. That way we can start crossing targeted people off our list.
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Day Six
Jun 19, 2007 14:43:34 GMT -5
Post by The Real FCOD on Jun 19, 2007 14:43:34 GMT -5
The only successful block I've had was zuma.
--FCOD
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
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Day Six
Jun 19, 2007 14:47:27 GMT -5
Post by Blaster Master on Jun 19, 2007 14:47:27 GMT -5
panamajack (3) Katiroo, Auntbeast, zuma tirial (2) Katiroo, zuma Gadarene (3) Katiroo, MHaye, zuma NAF1138 (3) Katiroo, Auntbeast, zuma Blaster Master (3) MHaye, Auntbeast, zuma capybara (2) zuma, Hal Briston cowgirl (2) zuma, Hal Briston Hockey Monkey (5!!!) Katiroo, Auntbeast, Mhaye, zuma, and Hal Briston Interestingly enough, you're information here leads me to what might be counter-intuitive: Lakai. His voting record is... interesting: He votes for Hockey Monkey on Days One and Two. But on Day Three, when she actually stands a good chance of dying (at least as much as on Day Two), he changes his tune and votes for Hal Briston. On Day Five, he has a chance to vote for Hal when he actually has a chance to hang, but instead votes for MTS. Interestingly, he was also dead last to vote for Zuma on Day Four. What I glean from that is that he's voting in for people that are close to being lynched, so he looks in the thick of things, but he's afraid to be on a final lynch wagon (note, he's only been on one, Zuma's). If he was suspicious enough to vote for HM for two days, when she actually had the chance to hang, why didn't he put his money where his mouth was? Same with his interesting choice of Hal; if he was suspicious enough to vote for him instead of the person he'd been voting for for two days, when there's a testable claim that says he's likely scum, why didn't you buy it? The simple explanation is that he is a pirate and was trying to use Zuma's role claim as an opportunity to get MTS killed during the day. So, you say, maybe he's just a little unlucky with where his votes lined up... let's look at a few choice quotes that look more like slips to me.
Post 3.131, snipped a lot, but it looks like a case of "Perfect Information Syndrome": Really? Why did you say the pirates killed Storyteller AGAINST the prevailing wisdom of the crew at the time? You could have just as easily said Kyrie or no name at all. If you were a pirate, it was a perfect opportunity to slip in some mis-information for trying to back-track when you eventually got lynched. I ALSO find it interesting that you suggest that AZT and FCOD be watched by Steele when neither of them was attacked until last night (when the pirates knew that AZT was almost certainly not DOC protected and MTS was probably watching/blocking himself). If you are a pirate, I think you were subtly trying to convince Steele to investigate one of them, so you all could continue your kills elsewhere free from him possibly detecting you. Also interesting, he unvotes Zuma in the same post.
Post 4.210, he questions whether we have to choose between Zuma and Idle Today. Then, in post 4.429, (his only other post of the whole day ), he changes his mind: First of all, I know the logic in post 4.210 has already been attacked as spurious; but what I find more interesting is the contradiction in thought. It looks, to me, that in 4.210, you want to delay the lynching because you know that Zuma is SOME pro-pirate role (by the fact that a pirate would have known he was lying by naming Idle as the attacker). Thus, it's clearly in a pirate's best interest to delay the lynching, to keep a pro-pirate power role alive, and clearly against the town's interest to not investigate a potential pirate for clues. However, that I MAYBE could buy as being simply poor strategy; but I can't see a change from "Do we have to for either of them today" to "Well it looks like we have an easy decision today".
Post 5.96, in response to me telling Gadarene that he needs to take the confirmed into account because the scum will. Huh!? How does NOT thinking about what the scum will take into account do anything but hurt us? Is he trying to derail Gadarene's grouping theory because there is some validity to it? It WAS rather damning of him.
There's more, but I've already spent too much time composing this. Either way, add it up, and it's enough for him to top my suspicion list and gain my vote: Vote Lakai
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Hockey Monkey!
Borogrove
This is supposed to be a happy occasion. Let's not bicker over who killed who.
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Day Six
Jun 19, 2007 15:10:00 GMT -5
Post by Hockey Monkey! on Jun 19, 2007 15:10:00 GMT -5
I'd rather not say, as it might give the pirates a clue as to the way I think. However, if someone can give me a good reason why it would benefit the town to disclose my targets I will. --FCOD I can't think of a good reason unless you think that you know who the pirates are targeting. If you have had a couple of successful blocks (and it would seem that you have had at least one) it might be good to know who the target that night was. That way we can start crossing targeted people off our list. Night one there was only one kill, and night three there were none. We know he protected zuma on night three. On nights two and four there were 2 kills. Only if FCOD thinks it would be beneficial to let us know who he protected on night one would I say disclose the info. Possible scenarios for Fluiddruid's kill: 1. Pirate kill, Dick misses 2. Pirate kill, Dick gets blocked 3. Dick kill, Pirates get blocked 4. Another that I didn't think of? The pirates know if they got a kill or not. And of course the player formerly known as Hal knows who Dick aimed for. I don't know if it would benefit us to know unless you know for sure you had a block and it wasn't a miss by Dick that caused only one kill.
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Hockey Monkey!
Borogrove
This is supposed to be a happy occasion. Let's not bicker over who killed who.
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Day Six
Jun 19, 2007 15:15:06 GMT -5
Post by Hockey Monkey! on Jun 19, 2007 15:15:06 GMT -5
The only successful block I've had was zuma. --FCOD OK well that settles that.
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Day Six
Jun 19, 2007 15:25:37 GMT -5
Post by NAF1138 on Jun 19, 2007 15:25:37 GMT -5
BM, I am with you 100%. I was suspicious of Lakai yesterDay, but didn't have enough to go on to place a vote (and didn't have time to track back. Guess yesterDay was not a great gameday for me all in all). This seals it for me though.
vote Lakai
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Day Six
Jun 19, 2007 15:56:47 GMT -5
Post by The Real FCOD on Jun 19, 2007 15:56:47 GMT -5
I am also suspicious of Lakai, but I will refrain from voting, for now, to avoid creating a bandwagon.
Lakai? Would you care to post a defense?
--FCOD
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Day Six
Jun 19, 2007 15:59:03 GMT -5
Post by sirblah on Jun 19, 2007 15:59:03 GMT -5
Let's get one thing out of the way now -- from here on out, I'll be referring to Hal as a seperate entity. It'll just make things easier. Yes, I find it a little silly as well, but we'll all be able to deal with it. Now then... Interestingly enough, you're information here leads me to what might be counter-intuitive: Lakai. His voting record is... interesting: He votes for Hockey Monkey on Days One and Two. But on Day Three, when she actually stands a good chance of dying (at least as much as on Day Two), he changes his tune and votes for Hal Briston. On Day Five, he has a chance to vote for Hal when he actually has a chance to hang, but instead votes for MTS. Interestingly, he was also dead last to vote for Zuma on Day Four. Full agreement here -- let's look back to Day Three: Hal, as Dick, did not know who was scum any more than the crew did (assuming he did not get in three night kills...since there were only two double-kill nights, this is certainly likely). More to the point, scum did not know Hal was Dick. Because of this, I wouldn't be too hasty to dismiss certain things Hal had to say. Lakai's vote for Hal and Hal's subsequent vote for Lakai are still very revealing. Yes, it was very helpful for the crew to lynch Hal, but Lakai's reasoning was beyond weak. WIth three days left, I'm not going to throw down a vote just yet, but Lakai still reeks to me.
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
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Day Six
Jun 19, 2007 16:49:26 GMT -5
Post by Blaster Master on Jun 19, 2007 16:49:26 GMT -5
Hal, as Dick, did not know who was scum any more than the crew did (assuming he did not get in three night kills...since there were only two double-kill nights, this is certainly likely). More to the point, scum did not know Hal was Dick. Because of this, I wouldn't be too hasty to dismiss certain things Hal had to say. FTR, Mal confirmed that Hal didn't make three kills in Post 6.31. [METAGAME]Besides, if you HAD, the game would be broken by letting you in because you'd have perfect knowledge if you were resurrected as crew[/METAGAME]
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Day Six
Jun 19, 2007 16:53:44 GMT -5
Post by diggitcamara on Jun 19, 2007 16:53:44 GMT -5
Thanks for pointing that post out to me. I believe I was flying to CA during that whole debacle, so I missed some important events. Yes. (snip) --FCOD In that case: you're welcome!
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Day Six
Jun 19, 2007 16:55:58 GMT -5
Post by sirblah on Jun 19, 2007 16:55:58 GMT -5
[METAGAME]Besides, if you HAD, the game would be broken by letting you in because you'd have perfect knowledge if you were resurrected as crew[/METAGAME] Ok, we need the headslap smiley over here.Excellent point. I had taken "Unaligned" to mean "you don't know if Dick's made three kills or not". Obviously, this was not the case. Thanks for clearing that up.
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Day Six
Jun 19, 2007 16:57:07 GMT -5
Post by diggitcamara on Jun 19, 2007 16:57:07 GMT -5
Hal, as Dick, did not know who was scum any more than the crew did (assuming he did not get in three night kills...since there were only two double-kill nights, this is certainly likely). More to the point, scum did not know Hal was Dick. Because of this, I wouldn't be too hasty to dismiss certain things Hal had to say. FTR, Mal confirmed that Hal didn't make three kills in Post 6.31 . [METAGAME]Besides, if you HAD, the game would be broken by letting you in because you'd have perfect knowledge if you were resurrected as crew[/METAGAME] [board mechanics]Quick note: to avoid having unseemly spaces in your links insert both a space in front and at the end of the text you want displayed. [/board mechanics]
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Day Six
Jun 19, 2007 17:39:37 GMT -5
Post by sirblah on Jun 19, 2007 17:39:37 GMT -5
[board mechanics]Quick note: to avoid having unseemly spaces in your links insert both a space in front and at the end of the text you want displayed. [/board mechanics] [further board mechanics]Two spaces in front will do the trick as well.[/further board mechanics]
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Day Six
Jun 19, 2007 18:25:04 GMT -5
Post by diggitcamara on Jun 19, 2007 18:25:04 GMT -5
... I know I introduced the term, and I have recommended its use, but actually, its usefulness ends just about the 5th day (or so I've seen in other games I've been in ;D ): "Perfect Information Syndrome" is good in retroactive analysis of the first couple of days, but leads to wrongful deaths with good players (tirial, anyone?)
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Day Six
Jun 19, 2007 19:37:54 GMT -5
Post by NAF1138 on Jun 19, 2007 19:37:54 GMT -5
... I know I introduced the term, and I have recommended its use, but actually, its usefulness ends just about the 5th day (or so I've seen in other games I've been in ;D ): "Perfect Information Syndrome" is good in retroactive analysis of the first couple of days, but leads to wrongful deaths with good players ( tirial, anyone?) Like anything I think it just has to be used wisely. Nothing is 100% because we are playing against people and not a computer. Like I said when I was going after Idle (who I know wasn't scum...but that isn't my point) we don't want to hang the person with one really big scum tell necessarily. Especially not if there is another person with a whole crap load of little scum tells. Take a look at the people who have died so far if you need to prove it. Most of the innocents were lynched on the shoulders of one or two big tells. The people who were scum (zuma, and Auto in particular...I had almost no read on Hal) didn't display big tells. But looking back at zuma and auto's posts, they are littered with tiny ones. We just haven't been looking in the right places. My history with Idle doesn't really support my point, I know, but I still think it is true. When I was moding I kept watching the players in the game overlook dozens of plainly obvious (to me) indicators of who the scum were, because they were SO focused on following the big red herrings. I don't want us to do that.
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