Day Six

[Blaster Master]

capybara said:

blastermaster said:

Bah! You and Mad ruined my fun!

Ooh, ooh, does this mean your theoretical result is moot, since the experiment's been shattered? You know you have to share now! What was NAF's hypothetical scumminess contingent upon in your scheme (or am I overanalyzing your post?)?

Okay, I'll share: it was a trap. It was a largely a combination of my hypothesis, the Psuedo-Random Hypothesis (PRH), and the votes and post count.

1) If Lakai is scum, under PRH, it is therefore increases the likelihood that scum will be found in a different group. He is in a different from from the Loud Obnoxious Group (you three, mostly). Therefore, it makes sense that if Lakai is scum, it makes sense that someone in the that group is highly likely to be scum (or the middle group, but it's a larger one, so I haven't focused on it yet). Therefore, this looks bad for NAF, Gadarene, capybara, Hockey Monkey and me. Note, this works in reverse, such that NAF's guilt looks bad for Lakai as well.

2) I specifically noted that Lakai was never on a lynch mob except for Zuma's (which doesn't really count since EVERYONE was; similarly, I wouldn't count NAF's today toward that either). Thus, under PRH, it naturally follows that someone who was on several lynch mobs is more likely to be scum. Therefore, this looks bad for NAF, Gadarene, Hockey Monkey, panamajack, and me. Note, this works in reverse, such that NAF's guilt looks bad for Lakai as well.

3) Under PRH, we can also determine that pirates are unlikely to cluster their votes highly. Therefore, it follows that pirates will try to spread out their votes over several candidates or at least vote at different times. Autolycus and Lakai only cross paths once on Hockey Monkey on Day Two, and even then only because Autolycus was obviously trying to tie it up. Similarly, the only time NAF crosses paths with EITHER is on Hockey Monkey on Day Two. OT: If this is true that all three are scum, did they think Hockey Monkey was a power role?

Also note that BOTH were voted for by Kyrie on day one (who was killed the next night, making sense of her being targetted), and both were very late to vote Zuma.

The problem was, this was slightly more damaging of NAF, but easily draws a comparison with Gadarene or panamajack as well.

[Parzival]

Man, I missed out on the excitement!

But I suppose it's not fair to advise a death method without voting first :

Vote NAF1138

It should have been obvious that he was scum, of course, because I never once suspected him.

Three cheers for Capt. Steele!

[Mad The Swine]

flyingcowofdoom said:

Excellent job, Mr. Pig!



--FCOD

That should be Captain Pig ,I guess.

Thanks,glad ya are there to watch my back.Lets get us another one tonight!

[The Real FCOD]

Yes of course...Captain Pig it is.

--FCOD

[sirblah]

Is MadCap acceptable?

[Mad The Swine]

So whadda ya'll think about NAF voting for Lakai early this Day?

And Lakai...if you live through all this you owe me dinner.(if ya ain't scum)

[sirblah]

madtheswine said:

So whadda ya'll think about NAF voting for Lakai early this Day?

Not sure...his was the second Lakai vote of the Day. Can't call that a bandwagon, but was there a better suspect?

Let's try it from this angle -- for purposes of this post, we'll assume Lakai is scum. You vote for Lakai...NAF, knowing your role and that there is every chance you may know for a fact that Lakai is scum jumps in right behind you. If you have to do a reveal of Lakai, then NAF comes out looking pretty damn good. Hopefully, from NAF's persepctive, no reveal comes out and a new bandwagon springs up, but if scum is going to swing anyway, then other scum would probably rather be part of the lynch mob rather than the naysayers.

Make sense?

[capybara]

madtheswine said:

So whadda ya'll think about NAF voting for Lakai early this Day?

I'm not I reckon it means much-- very early in the day, not risky, not the first vote (only done after . . Blaster's? long post and vote) and pretty clear which was the wind was from the prior day. I think it was safe and prudent for a pirate, even if L is a pirate, too.

Blaster, your logic is impressive but sort of. . . speculative?-- like reading Umberto Eco or something, where you're not quite sure whether to think the narrator is delusioned or brilliant. I think I might have to stop trying to follow your trains of thought because they make me dizzy. I see the pseudo-random-distribution-project theory as an interesting one to keep in mind, but I think it will be hard to make accurate predictions with, although patterns might emerge after the fact (then there is a correlation/= causation problem). Might bring up some interesting ideas but as evidence in itself a bit dangerous.

If I may spin the Wayback machine into gear. . . it was NAF who was one of the few proponents of the strange "pirates will avoid bandwagons" theory (I just remember this one in particular as I was on the short end of that stick). Anyone else remember anything particularly juicy about NAF?

[sirblah]

sirblah said:

Make sense?

No, it doesn't.

NAF would know you couldn't have made a reval on Lakai because he would know that you can only see those who are sent out to do the actualy killing. Since that's how you outed NAF, he'd know you couldn't possibly out Lakai that way.

Never mind.

[Hockey Monkey!]

Good grief, I'm gone for most of the day today, and wowie.

Vote NAF1138! Great job Captain Swine!

In his confession, NAF notes that Idle and tirial were the only ones on to him. Does this implicate or exhonorate tirial/Sir Blah?

He was also pretty sure Lakai was going to swing today, and seemed gleeful about it. Same question, does this implicate or exhonorate Lakai?

I've got to go back and do some serious reading now with this new knowledge.

[sirblah]

And while I'm keeping busy being an idiot...

sirblah said:

You vote for Lakai...

Correction: That "You" was aimed at Mad, but it was actually Blaster that cast the first Lakai vote.

[sirblah]

hockeymonkey said:

In his confession, NAF notes that Idle and tirial were the only ones on to him. Does this implicate or exhonorate tirial/Sir Blah?

Exonerate! Exonerate!

Although I suppose you're probably looking for opinions other than mine...

Well, in my very lackluster defense, I did call attention to this already.

[NAF1138]

hahahaha...FOOLS!

hee hee hee ;D

(trying to tow the line between general taunting and actually being a bad sport.)

[Malacandra]

Very well, I'll check it in the morning (my time) so you have about ten hours to be creative.

"After being caught red-handed, NAF1138 met his fate like a man..."

And thanks for the props. Hey, it had pirates in it, how could I go wrong? ;D

[NAF1138]

malacandra said:

Very well, I'll check it in the morning (my time) so you have about ten hours to be creative.

"After being caught red-handed, NAF1138 met his fate like a man..."

Thanks Mal! Woohoo. You heard him people, if you want your choices to be considered you better get a postin'.

And thanks for the props. Hey, it had pirates in it, how could I go wrong? ;D

You really couldn't. Now, you know the next one you do has to have ninja's too right?

[Hockey Monkey!]

Let's see how this looks now...

Good Guys – Lime Green
SCUM - Purple
Pirates - Orange


Day One Votes
ArizonaTeach = 0 zuma
Auntbeast = 0 MadTheSwine, hockeymonkey
Autolycus = 0 Pleonast, MadTheSwine, Cookies, Gadarene, FCOD, Kyrie Eleison, Gadarene, CaerieD
Blaster Master = 1 NAF1138, panamajack, capybara
CaerieD = 0 NAF1138
capybara = 5 FCOD, Blaster Master, fluiddruid, FCOD, MHaye, MadTheSwine
Cookies = 1 Pleonast, Gadarene
cowgirl = 0 Kyrie Eleison, fluiddruid
DiggitCamara = 0 NAF1138
FCOD = 0 NAF1138
hockeymonkey = 1 Lakai
Idle Thoughts = 1 capybara, hockeymonkey, cowgirl, capybara,capybara
KatiRoo = 9 Pleonast, storyteller0910, panamajack, ArizonaTeach, Cookies, zuma, Gadarene, CaerieD, hockey monkey, NAF1138
Kyrie Eleison = 1 Idle Thoughts, Lakai
Lakai = 1 panamajack, Kyrie Eleison
MadTheSwine = 1 KatiRoo,auntbeast
NAF1138 = 0 Kyrie Eleison, ArizonaTeach
Pleonast = 0 panamajack
storyteller0910 = 2 diggitcamara, auntbeast
zuma = 0 Pleonast



Day Two Votes
MHaye =7 Blaster Master, Gadarene, zuma, hockey monkey, Pleonast, ArizonaTeach, Gadarene, ArizonaTeach, hockey monkey, Kyrie Eleison
hockeymonkey =5 Lakai, NAF1138, FCOD, Hal Briston, Autolycus, diggitcamara, Idle Thoughts, ArizonaTeach
FCOD =3 hockeymonkey, storyteller0910, Kyrie Eleison, MHaye, cowgirl, diggitcamara, Autolycus, MHaye, Gadarene, capybara
NAF1138 =2 Auntbeast, tirial
auntbeast =1 MadTheSwine, Pleonast, MadTheSwine
Lakai =1 panamajack, hockeymonkey
MadTheSwine =1 capybara, capybara
Cookies {now Tirial} =1 Pleonast, NAF1138
ArizonaTeach =0 zuma
Kyrie Eleison =0 Idle Thoughts, ArizonaTeach
panamajack =0 hockeymonkey
zuma =0 storyteller0910, MadTheSwine



Day Three Votes
auntbeast =5 Pleonast, hockeymonkey, MadTheSwine, panamajack, NAF1138, ArizonaTeach, Blaster Master
hockeymonkey =4 Autolycus, FCOD, panamajack, diggitcamara, auntbeast
Hal Briston =2 ArizonaTeach, Lakai, MadTheSwine, zuma, NAF1138
Lakai =2 Hal Briston, Gadarene
Autolycus =1 capybara
Idle Thoughts =1 zuma
NAF1138 =1 Idle Thoughts
zuma =1 MadTheSwine, auntbeast, Lakai, Hal Briston, Idle Thoughts, ArizonaTeach
cowgirl =0 Gadarene
panamajack =0 hockeymonkey, Blaster Master
tirial =0 zuma, NAF1138


Day Four Votes
Idle Thoughts = 1 NAF1138, capybara, Pleonast, FCOD, MadTheSwine, ArizonaTeach, Hal Briston, Hockey Monkey, capybara, panamajack, zuma, Blaster Master, tirial
NAF1138 =0 Idle Thoughts
zuma =17 Idle Thoughts, Autolycus, MadTheSwine, ArizonaTeach, Gadarene, FCOD, capybara, Pleonast, Hockey Monkey, panamajack, tirial, zuma*, Blaster Master, cowgirl, NAF1138, diggitcamara, Lakai
Autolycus =0 Pleonast

*zuma didn't unvote Idle Thoughts so his vote for himself didn't count.

Day Five Votes
MadTheSwine = 2 Pleonast, Lakai, cowgirl
Lakai = 3 ArizonaTeach, Hockey Monkey, Gadarene, panamajack, capybara, Hal Briston
panamajack =1 Blaster Master
Hal Briston =6 MadTheSwine, capybara, ArizonaTeach, cowgirl, Hockey Monkey, FCOD
cowgirl =1 diggitcamara
No Vote = NAF1138, tirial

[Blaster Master]

sirblah said:

hockeymonkey said:

In his confession, NAF notes that Idle and tirial were the only ones on to him. Does this implicate or exhonorate tirial/Sir Blah?

Exonerate! Exonerate!

Although I suppose you're probably looking for opinions other than mine...

Well, in my very lackluster defense, I did call attention to this already.

It should neither implicate nor exonerate. Evidence from scum his way to the gallows should pretty much be ignored. I think there is potentially something to be gained from the vote for Lakai which I'll have to give more thought to, because at that point NAF didn't necessarily have reason to believe he would be getting lynched.

[NAF1138]

Man I keep writing all these really witty replies to your guy's attempt to have serious conversation while I am still alive, and then deciding that me screwing with you would just make me a dick.

I don't want to be a dick, but I feel that I really should be screwing with you more that I already am.

Oh well, I will restrain myself and not be a dick.

[sirblah]

blastermaster said:

It should neither implicate nor exonerate. Evidence from scum his way to the gallows should pretty much be ignored.

Although perhaps I should be keeping my trap shut and nodding along, I have to disagree. Looking back throughout all the Mafia games, scum have repeatedly named other scum while doing the death march. The only reason I would discount that is that perhaps we're at the point now where everyone knows this, and so it can be safely ignored (well, that, and the fact that I know I'm not scum).

Still, if NAF had done a classic "list of three" instead of just the two names, I'd be taking a long, hard look at that other name.

blastermaster said:

I think there is potentially something to be gained from the vote for Lakai which I'll have to give more thought to, because at that point NAF didn't necessarily have reason to believe he would be getting lynched.

I realize we're several days from it being a pressing issue, but would you care to elaborate? I believe you're correct in thinking he had no reason to believe he was caught, so I'm curious as to what you make of that vote.

[capybara]

Hmm. Thoughts on the voting chart (I DO appreciate it, HM!) Well, HockeyMonkey, good thing you've given up the 'pirates avoiding bandwagons" idea because our pirates so far have been pretty enthusiastic wagoneers until Day 5. What we CAN say is that that until now no known pirate has been bandwagon-ed except Auto Day one which doesn't count: the most either of them got at any time was two votes. The non-affiliated scum DID get wagoned a couple of times. Looks like being non-pirate scum causes risky or foolish play.

Day Four, both known pirates were on board when the writing was on the wall. Why Auto voted for Zuma so early we may never know.
A last observation-- NAF enjoyed voting. A real democratic guy.

[NAF1138]

capybara said:

Day Four, both known pirates were on board when the writing was on the wall. Why Auto voted for Zuma so early we may never know.
A last observation-- NAF enjoyed voting. A real democratic guy.

Hey, I am not dead yet. I still enjoy voting!

Also, I take exception to being called a bandwagoner.

[Blaster Master]

sirblah said:

blastermaster said:

It should neither implicate nor exonerate. Evidence from scum his way to the gallows should pretty much be ignored.

Although perhaps I should be keeping my trap shut and nodding along, I have to disagree. Looking back throughout all the Mafia games, scum have repeatedly named other scum while doing the death march. The only reason I would discount that is that perhaps we're at the point now where everyone knows this, and so it can be safely ignored (well, that, and the fact that I know I'm not scum).

Still, if NAF had done a classic "list of three" instead of just the two names, I'd be taking a long, hard look at that other name.

I would say this is no longer true, at least in M3, both fluiddruid and Lemur named SCL on their way out which was a large part of her getting lynched, and she was just an innocent townie. Either way, I'm more apt to believe that it was just a comment, and thus nothing was actually meant by it.

blastermaster said:

I think there is potentially something to be gained from the vote for Lakai which I'll have to give more thought to, because at that point NAF didn't necessarily have reason to believe he would be getting lynched.

I realize we're several days from it being a pressing issue, but would you care to elaborate? I believe you're correct in thinking he had no reason to believe he was caught, so I'm curious as to what you make of that vote.[/quote]

Well, up until today, NAF had a history of voting for confirmed crew, unvoting/revoting, and often ending up on the mob wagon. The only unconfirmed for whom he has voted thus far is you. So let's evaluate two possibilities, and I may be a bit biased here, so take it with the requisite about of salt:

If Lakai is town, it fits his pattern of voting for townies, and often on wagons (assuming Lakai would have been lynched had Mad not intervened). If this is the case, it's a mixed move for him. He get's to let me, or one of the late comers blamed for her lynch, and he probably escapes a lynch for two more days, but he's almost certainly toast thereafter. The worse part is, it maintains his pattern of consistently voting for crewmen, which certainly makes him worse for it.

Now, if Lakai is a pirate, unlike the other wagons, he was actually one of the first (though still not THE first). What would be his logic for that? If Lakai DID show up town, he'd get blame either right with me, or soon thereafter. OTOH, knowing he and Lakai had some difficult to substantiate suspicion, if he was one of the first to vote for him, as soon as there was a substantiable reason to do so, it might help dispell the suspicion.

He had to have thought Lakai had a good chance of swinging today, because it seemed to be lingering on a lot of people's minds. Like the other days, if he found a more compelling reason to vote elsewhere on a not pirate, I imagine he would have changed his vote.

IOW, if they're both pirates, I imagine the pirates knew that one or both of them would pull a fair amount of suspicion, and probably had already decided a way of determining who should vote for the one falling if/when he does Today.

So, in my mind, it really comes down to whether we think the pirates are going to play aggressively (and be willing to trade a pirate for two non-pirate day lynches, or if the'd be defensive and try to dispell blame instead. IMO, the pirates have played failry conservative, so I'd lean toward the latter.

[Blaster Master]

naf1138 said:

Hey, I am not dead yet. I still enjoy voting!

Also, I take exception to being called a bandwagoner.

The only one more bandwagony than you is Hockey Monkey. Are you an Apist? Why do you hate monkeys so much!? Won't you PLEASE think of the children?

[Blaster Master]

capybara said:

Day Four, both known pirates were on board when the writing was on the wall. Why Auto voted for Zuma so early we may never know.

Expounding on the fact that he knew Zuma was lying and that Idle wasn't a pirate, I think Auto did it for the whole idea of saying "See, why didn't you listen to me? Why woulda pirate vote to kill Sam?"

[NAF1138]

blastermaster said:

IMO, the pirates have played failry conservative, so I'd lean toward the latter.

I also take exception to being called conservative.

[Blaster Master]

naf1138 said:

blastermaster said:

IMO, the pirates have played failry conservative, so I'd lean toward the latter.

I also take exception to being called conservative.

Okay, then umm... the rest of the pirates can be conservative, and you can be a bleeding-heart flaming liberal. Why do you hate America?

[NAF1138]

blastermaster said:

naf1138 said:

I also take exception to being called conservative.

Okay, then umm... the rest of the pirates can be conservative, and you can be a bleeding-heart flaming liberal. Why do you hate America?

HA! You know I have never come up with a good answer to that question.

Putting out last call to anyone who wants in on the how does NAF snuff it contest.

So far no on is a standout winner so I may have to amalgamate.

[Malacandra]

naf1138 said:

And thanks for the props. Hey, it had pirates in it, how could I go wrong? ;D

You really couldn't. Now, you know the next one you do has to have ninja's too right?

Trust me for that!

[sirblah]

blastermaster said:

...and you can be a bleeding-heart flaming...

While they're both good suggestions, the "How should NAF die thread is down one on the list.

[capybara]

naf1138 said:

blastermaster said:

IMO, the pirates have played failry conservative, so I'd lean toward the latter.

I also take exception to being called conservative.

Jeez, someone stick a ball-gag in that prisoner!