Post by Blaster Master on Jun 20, 2007 14:20:47 GMT -5
Bah! You and Mad ruined my fun!
Ooh, ooh, does this mean your theoretical result is moot, since the experiment's been shattered? You know you have to share now! What was NAF's hypothetical scumminess contingent upon in your scheme (or am I overanalyzing your post?)?
Okay, I'll share: it was a trap. It was a largely a combination of my hypothesis, the Psuedo-Random Hypothesis (PRH), and the votes and post count.
1) If Lakai is scum, under PRH, it is therefore increases the likelihood that scum will be found in a different group. He is in a different from from the Loud Obnoxious Group (you three, mostly). Therefore, it makes sense that if Lakai is scum, it makes sense that someone in the that group is highly likely to be scum (or the middle group, but it's a larger one, so I haven't focused on it yet). Therefore, this looks bad for NAF, Gadarene, capybara, Hockey Monkey and me. Note, this works in reverse, such that NAF's guilt looks bad for Lakai as well.
2) I specifically noted that Lakai was never on a lynch mob except for Zuma's (which doesn't really count since EVERYONE was; similarly, I wouldn't count NAF's today toward that either). Thus, under PRH, it naturally follows that someone who was on several lynch mobs is more likely to be scum. Therefore, this looks bad for NAF, Gadarene, Hockey Monkey, panamajack, and me. Note, this works in reverse, such that NAF's guilt looks bad for Lakai as well.
3) Under PRH, we can also determine that pirates are unlikely to cluster their votes highly. Therefore, it follows that pirates will try to spread out their votes over several candidates or at least vote at different times. Autolycus and Lakai only cross paths once on Hockey Monkey on Day Two, and even then only because Autolycus was obviously trying to tie it up. Similarly, the only time NAF crosses paths with EITHER is on Hockey Monkey on Day Two. OT: If this is true that all three are scum, did they think Hockey Monkey was a power role?
Also note that BOTH were voted for by Kyrie on day one (who was killed the next night, making sense of her being targetted), and both were very late to vote Zuma.
The problem was, this was slightly more damaging of NAF, but easily draws a comparison with Gadarene or panamajack as well.